Colorado State is investing in its football future, but 2016 might be a retooling year

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1. Taking a big swing

Hughes Stadium's days are numbered. Picturesque and isolated, it has served as the off-campus home of Colorado State football since 1968, when it replaced a tiny, on-campus facility called Colorado Field.

Its 49th season will be its last. The Rams are scheduled to move into a new, large stadium in the southern portion of campus in 2017. Construction is ongoing.

Hughes Stadium is a symbol of Colorado State's past. The Rams have long been a sturdy mid-major program, attending 14 bowls in 26 years and finishing in the AP top 20 three times between 1994-00. But the program grew stale in the 2000s, finishing above .500 only once between 2004-12. In 2013, serious discussions for a new stadium -- a $200 million breath of life, basically -- began.

We can debate whether a project like this is ever really worth it. While on-campus stadiums are easier for students to access (and could therefore generate more of an active, vocal crowd), $200 million is a lot to spend on a bigger stadium before you can actually prove you can fill it. And with CSU likely stuck in the Mountain West for the far foreseeable future, it will probably take a while for the new stadium to truly pay off.

Regardless, the tentatively named Colorado State Stadium is a clear sign of investment, and it is a signal of the future Colorado State wants. Like so many other programs, the Rams would probably love a shot at entry into the Big 12, but they do not appear to be top candidates at the moment. Still, they appear more than interested in attempting to compete with conference heavyweight Boise State in the program-building department.

That the erection of the stadium has coincided with an actual rebuild of the team makes that vision a little clearer and, seemingly, more realistic. Under Jim McElwain, the Rams went 18-9 in 2013-14 and enjoyed their first 10-win season in 13 years. When McElwain took the Florida job, they replaced him with another successful SEC offensive coordinator, Georgia's Mike Bobo.

In 2015, CSU took a step backwards, but not a significant one. After a 2-4 start to the season, Bobo's Rams whipped eventual MWC Mountain champion Air Force, lost to San Diego State, then won four games in a row to finish the regular season 7-5. They finished with a tough, lucky win over Fresno State and a bowl loss to Nevada, but they sustained enough of McElwain's gains to attend a third straight bowl game.

Meanwhile, Bobo was putting together CSU's best recruiting class in a long time. Per the 247Sports Composite, CSU's February class ranked second in the MWC and 70th overall. It was the Rams' best class since 2011; over the previous four recruiting cycles, even while building a solid program, CSU's average class rankings were eighth in the MWC and 103rd overall.

Bobo signed 17 three-star recruits and added a load of junior college transfers to account for turnover at receiver and in the secondary. His receiving corps and defensive line will still be as green as their uniforms this fall, but with as few as two to three senior starters on offense and four to five on defense, the Rams that enter Colorado State Stadium against Abilene Christian on September 9, 2017, will be seasoned and, potentially, quite strong.

2016 is basically an interim year before Colorado State's future begins in 2017. With eight opponents projected 80th or worse in S&P+, the Rams will have a solid chance of reaching the postseason for the fourth straight year, but since they're projected at only 96th themselves, that's not a given. But recruiting is looking good, and the depth chart is young.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 7-6 | Adj. Record: 5-8 | Final F/+ Rk: 86 | Final S&P+ Rk: 81
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
5-Sep	Savannah State	N/A	65-13	W	93%	100%	+25.6
12-Sep	Minnesota	55	20-23	L	44%	60%	-1.3	+3.0
19-Sep	vs. Colorado	94	24-27	L	35%	53%	-9.7	0.0
26-Sep	at UTSA	111	33-31	W	22%	32%	-9.3	-7.0
3-Oct	at Utah State	53	18-33	L	12%	3%	-16.0	-10.5
10-Oct	Boise State	37	10-41	L	4%	0%	-20.8	-15.5
17-Oct	Air Force	63	38-23	W	87%	99%	+20.3	+18.0
31-Oct	San Diego State	43	17-41	L	34%	16%	-20.8	-20.5
7-Nov	at Wyoming	115	26-7	W	86%	100%	+9.4	+7.5
14-Nov	UNLV	105	49-35	W	69%	98%	+0.9	+6.5
21-Nov	at New Mexico	99	28-21	W	65%	92%	-1.3	+5.0
28-Nov	at Fresno State	103	34-31	W	14%	16%	-7.4	-6.5
29-Dec	vs. Nevada	97	23-28	L	39%	55%	-13.1	-8.0

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	29.5	60	31.6	88
Points Per Game	29.6	62	27.2	64

2. Clear improvement (in spurts)

Colorado State spent a good portion of 2015 losing games it should have won and winning games it should have lost. Win Expectancy tosses all of the key stats from a given game into the air and says, "With these stats, you would have won this game X percent of the time." CSU's win expectancy against Minnesota was 60 percent, and the Rams lost, 23-20. It was 53 percent in a 27-24 loss to Colorado. And in the bowl loss to Nevada, it was 55 percent.

Meanwhile, win expectancy was just 32 percent in the two-point win over UTSA and a paltry 16 percent in the win over Fresno. That's a lot of contrary results, though in the end, the actual win total of seven was about right.

After a romp over ratings skewer Savannah State in the season opener, CSU trailed off quickly. The tight losses to Minnesota and Colorado were followed by increasingly disappointing performances against UTSA, Utah State, and Boise State. But there was clear growth over the second half of the year.

• Average Percentile Performance (games 2-6): 23% (~top 100) | Average score: Opp 31, CSU 21
• Average Percentile Performance (games 7-13): 56% (~top 55) | Average score: CSU 32, Opp 26

The offense took a clear step forward with the emergence of freshman running back Izzy Matthews. During the first seven games, he rushed just 24 times for 104 yards (4.3 per carry), but in the final six he rushed 73 times for 486 (6.7). Along with the steady production of Dalyn Dawkins, that helped CSU to improve from 164 rushing yards per game through eight to 251 over the final five.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.20	96	IsoPPP+	102.5	57
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	47.1%	17	Succ. Rt. +	112.0	25
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	27.4	21	Def. FP+	28.3	43
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.2	88	Redzone S&P+	110.5	34
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	25.2		ACTUAL	27	+1.8

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	47	43	25	57
RUSHING	33	40	17	63
PASSING	61	50	45	58
Standard Downs		40	25	50
Passing Downs		69	32	83

Q1 Rk	38	1st Down Rk	55
Q2 Rk	73	2nd Down Rk	47
Q3 Rk	42	3rd Down Rk	69
Q4 Rk	45

3. Pragmatism!

By the end of his tenure as Georgia's offensive coordinator, Bobo was one of the best play-callers in the business. He was pragmatic and logical, and while "Fire Bobo!" was an ongoing Internet meme, it became more of a parody as time went on. Georgia established the run, baited defenses into overcommitting, then hit them with a devastating mix of screens and vertical passing. And when the run game wasn't quite as effective, he was able to isolate receivers and defenders and create relatively easy passes on passing downs.

Bobo brought a familiar face with him to Fort Collins. His first offensive coordinator was Georgia's former offensive line coach, Will Friend.

While it took a little while, by the end of the season Bobo and Friend had figured some things out. CSU finished 25th in Success Rate+ and 17th in Rushing Success Rate+, and while big plays were a bit of an issue -- the Rams had 63 gains of 20-plus yards, 53rd in FBS -- CSU's offense was actually more efficient than Georgia's.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Nick Stevens	6'3, 205	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8356	211	347	2679	21	12	60.8%	15	4.1%	7.1
Coleman Key					21	44	251	3	3	47.7%	2	4.3%	5.1
Faton Bauta (Georgia)	6'2, 220	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8799	15	33	154	0	4	45.5%	1	2.9%	4.4
J.C. Robles	6'5, 200	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8036
Collin Hill	6'5, 225	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8497

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Dalyn Dawkins	RB	5'9, 175	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8375	170	867	2	5.1	4.3	43.5%	5	5
Jasen Oden, Jr.	RB					154	746	6	4.8	4.1	34.4%	2	2
Izzy Matthews	RB	6'0, 215	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8174	97	590	5	6.1	5.6	46.4%	0	0
Nick Stevens	QB	6'3, 205	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8356	30	128	3	4.3	2.6	46.7%	4	2
Deionte Gaines	WR	5'8, 180	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8449	12	138	2	11.5	6.8	83.3%	2	0
Craig Leonard	QB					9	43	0	4.8	1.6	55.6%	0	0
Deron Thompson	RB					7	49	0	7.0	5.1	57.1%	0	0
Treyous Jarrells	RB					7	28	0	4.0	6.5	14.3%	0	0
Nu'uvali Fa'apito	FB					4	4	2	1.0	0.0	0.0%	0	0
Danny Nwosu	FB	6'3, 245	Sr.	NR	0.7868
Bryce Peters	RB	5'11, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8000
Johnathan Lewis	RB	5'11, 190	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7893
Rashaad Boddie	RB	6'0, 225	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8256
Marvin Kinsey	RB	6'1, 190	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8100

4. Efficiency despite youth

Quarterback Nick Stevens was a sophomore, Dalyn Dawkins was a sophomore, Izzy Matthews was a freshman, and CSU began the season with a line that featured two sophomores and two juniors. There were upperclassmen involved, too -- the top three receivers (including all-star receiver Rashard Higgins), right tackle Sam Carlson, No. 2 running back Jasen Oden Jr. -- but the offense's slow start was relatively predictable.

The passing game is obviously a concern moving forward; Higgins, Joe Hansley, and tight ends Kivon Cartwright and Steven Walker are gone after accounting for 136 catches and 1,996 yards last year. But the strength of the offense last year was the run, and the main pieces are all back.

Matthews showed star power as a true freshman, and Dawkins rushed for at least 90 yards in five games. (In terms of targets, he was also CSU's No. 4 receiver.) Plus, a line that ranked an incredible 16th in Adj. Line Yards and 17th in Adj. Sack Rate returns four-fifths of its lineup, including all-conference guard Fred Zerblis.

There's a lot to like here, and one just assumes that Bobo and Friend will be able to establish the run once more this fall. But at some point, they'll have to call pass plays. That's when the problems could begin.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Rashard Higgins	WR					106	75	1062	70.8%	28.7%	10.0	61.3%	63.2%	1.49
Joe Hansley	WR					56	28	415	50.0%	15.2%	7.4	57.1%	41.1%	1.81
Kivon Cartwright	TE					35	18	279	51.4%	9.5%	8.0	60.0%	45.7%	1.68
Dalyn Dawkins	RB	5'9, 175	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8375	34	24	178	70.6%	9.2%	5.2	47.1%	32.4%	1.43
Xavier Williams	WR	6'4, 215	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	33	19	231	57.6%	8.9%	7.0	57.6%	45.5%	1.49
Steven Walker	TE					22	15	240	68.2%	6.0%	10.9	72.7%	54.5%	1.88
Jordon Vaden	WR	6'3, 195	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8301	22	11	184	50.0%	6.0%	8.4	77.3%	40.9%	1.81
Deionte Gaines	WR	5'8, 180	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8449	19	13	112	68.4%	5.1%	5.9	78.9%	36.8%	1.47
Sammie Long IV	WR	6'3, 195	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8410	9	5	60	55.6%	2.4%	6.7	44.4%	44.4%	1.32
Jasen Oden, Jr.	RB					8	8	51	100.0%	2.2%	6.4	75.0%	75.0%	0.68
Nu'uvali Fa'apito	FB					6	5	19	83.3%	1.6%	3.2	100.0%	50.0%	0.60
Elroy Masters, Jr.	WR	6'2, 210	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7933	3	3	35	100.0%	0.8%	11.7	66.7%	66.7%	1.88
Nolan Peralta	TE	6'3, 245	Sr.	NR	0.7000	3	2	26	66.7%	0.8%	8.7	66.7%	33.3%	1.87
Olabisi Johnson	WR	6'0, 185	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8073	3	2	15	66.7%	0.8%	5.0	33.3%	66.7%	0.89
John Freismuth	WR	6'4, 220	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7726
Trey Smith	WR	6'0, 190	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7659
Michael Gallup	WR	6'2, 210	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8428
Dalton Fackrell	TE	6'4, 240	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8231
Darneail Jenkins	TE	6'5, 240	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8315
Isiah Pannunzio	TE	6'2, 215	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8181
Anthony Hawkins	WR	5'11, 185	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8149

5. A reload in the receiving corps

There will at least be some familiar faces for Stevens in the receiving corps. Xavier Williams, Jordon Vaden, and Deionte Gaines were not huge pieces of the passing game in 2015, but they have combined for 109 catches and 1,323 yards in their respective careers. Sammie Long IV and Elroy Masters have combined for 19 more career catches.

Still, in Higgins, CSU must replace one of the nation's most prolific receivers. Over three seasons, Higgins caught 239 passes for 3,649 yards and 31 scores; his transcendent 2014 season was one of the main reasons for CSU's 10-win surge. His opportunities trailed off a bit in 2015's run-first attack, but defenses had to mind him at all times.

Some combination of veterans and incoming JUCOs -- three-star wideout Michael Gallup (one of the more highly-regarded pieces of this past signing class) and tight ends Dalton Fackrell and Darneall Jenkins -- will have to figure out how to punish defenses for getting distracted by the run. The athleticism here seems relatively impressive, but production isn't guaranteed. And Stevens' ability to find some play-makers open will determine whether this is a top-40 offense or a top-75 offense. The run game will be awesome if defenses have to mind the passing game, and while I have the utmost confidence in Bobo and Friend, they can only do so much if receivers don't step up.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	112	3.34	3.58	42.5%	72.5%	18.2%	170.9	2.3%	5.6%
Rank	16	9	32	24	30	45	17	16	27

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Fred Zerblis	RG	6'3, 295	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7000	13	26	2015 2nd All-MWC
Sam Carlson	RT					13	26
Jake Bennett	C	6'3, 295	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7993	13	16
Nick Callender	LT	6'5, 315	Sr.	NR	0.7000	10	13
Zack Golditch	LG	6'6, 290	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7685	12	12
Kevin O'Brien	C					2	12
Trae Moxley	LT	6'5, 320	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7998	2	2
Colby Meeks	LG	6'4, 300	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8008	0	0
Tomas Rivera	RG	6'6, 330	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	0	0
Brett Jordan	RT	6'5, 275	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7000	0	0
Christian Montes	OL	6'4, 270	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7926	0	0
Nicho Garcia	OL	6'5, 300	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8174
Jeff Taylor	OL	6'3, 295	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8026

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.34	101	IsoPPP+	86.2	110
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	40.7%	62	Succ. Rt. +	91.0	100
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	30.7	48	Off. FP+	29.2	87
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.5	78	Redzone S&P+	100.5	69
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	15.7		ACTUAL	15.0	-0.7

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	55	106	100	110
RUSHING	107	102	98	111
PASSING	9	91	104	81
Standard Downs		88	75	93
Passing Downs		124	126	125

Q1 Rk	92	1st Down Rk	110
Q2 Rk	104	2nd Down Rk	38
Q3 Rk	102	3rd Down Rk	128
Q4 Rk	96

6. One year, one coordinator replacement

You figure Bobo knew he wasn't going to have Tyson Summers for very long. He brought the up-and-coming former UCF defensive coordinator with him in 2015, and after just one season, Summers was named Georgia Southern's head coach.

Bobo didn't search too far for a replacement, simply choosing to promote linebackers coach Marty English. English was Wyoming's defensive coordinator from 2009-11 and has been a linebackers coach at one school or another for much of three decades.

Linebackers were certainly a strength for CSU in 2015 -- the Rams were seventh in the country in Linebacker Havoc Rate-- and that should remain the case with five of six contributors returning. But CSU still ranked just 88th in Def. S&P+ because a dreadful inability to keep opponents from catching back up to the chains. CSU was 124th in Passing Downs S&P+, allowing 62 gains of 20-plus yards (77th in FBS but far worse if you were to adjust for opponent).

English will have a more experienced secondary to work with, and the line does feature five former three-star recruits (per 247). But four are either true or redshirt freshmen, and the fifth, junior Darnell Thompson, has made 0.5 tackles in two seasons. The top four tacklers up front are all gone.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	94.4	2.82	3.25	40.5%	58.8%	22.7%	92.8	5.7%	7.0%
Rank	89	55	69	89	27	33	78	42	74

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Joe Kawulok	BUCK					13	27.0	3.8%	7.5	4.5	0	2	1	0
SteveO Michel	BUCK					13	25.5	3.6%	9.5	2.5	0	0	0	0
Martavius Foster	DE					13	21.0	3.0%	8.0	5.5	0	3	1	0
Terry Jackson	NT					11	18.0	2.5%	4.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Josh Lovingood	DE	6'4, 290	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7833	11	11.5	1.6%	1.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Colton Foster	NT	6'3, 285	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7544	7	6.5	0.9%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Justin Hansen	DT					12	6.0	0.8%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jakob Buys	DT	6'4, 265	Jr.	NR	NR	11	5.0	0.7%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Johnny Schupp	DL	6'5, 275	Sr.	NR	0.7000	12	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Darnell Thompson	DE	6'5, 275	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8316
Richard King	DE	6'5, 260	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8200
O'Shea Jackson	DT	6'1, 290	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7600
Christian Colon	DT	6'3, 310	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8510
Anthony Smith	DE	6'3, 250	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8504
Arjay Dean	DE	6'3, 220	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7994
Toby McBride	DE	6'3, 250	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7893

7. A scary lack of depth up front

I said five of the top six linebackers return, but that doesn't acknowledge the blurred lines of the BUCK position, the hybrid DE-OLB slot I am counting as a defensive end here. Both bucks (Joe Kawulok and SteveO Michel, who combined for 17 tackles for loss and seven sacks) are gone, which might limit English's attacking options.

More worrisome, however, is the loss of two of the top three tackles. Among other things, CSU had an injury problem in the middle last year -- no listed tackle played in more than 11 games -- which meant that a few different guys saw playing time. And while both of 2015's season-opening starters are gone (Terry Jackson, Justin Hansen), Colston Foster, Jakob Buys, and inside-outside guy Josh Lovingood are all back.

Still, a lot of the aforementioned three-star freshmen will potentially see the field, at least as backups. And while it's possible that a player like redshirt freshman Richard King or monstrous true freshman Christian Colon will be solid out of the gates, you hate to rely on that.

If the interior linemen can keep blockers off of linebackers like Kevin Davis and Deonte Clyburn (combined: 21 TFLs in 2015), the defense's strengths will remain strong. But the depth up front is pretty scary.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Kevin Davis	WLB	6'3, 240	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8127	13	74.5	10.6%	14.0	3.0	1	2	0	0
Deonte Clyburn	WLB	6'1, 230	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7519	13	57.0	8.1%	7.0	0.5	0	0	2	0
Cory James	MLB					13	46.5	6.6%	10.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Tre Thomas	SLB	6'1, 215	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7819	13	31.0	4.4%	5.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kiel Robinson	SLB	6'2, 225	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7894	12	30.5	4.3%	5.5	3.0	0	0	1	0
Josh Watson	MLB	6'2, 230	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7833	13	28.0	4.0%	6.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Evan Colorito	LB	6'4, 240	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8186	10	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Patrick Elsenbast	LB	6'1, 210	Jr.	NR	NR	8	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Bryan Ohene-Gyeni	LB	6'1, 225	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	4	1.5	0.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Deshon Mayes	LB	6'2, 200	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7933
Pierre Copeland II	LB	6'2, 205	Jr.	NR	NR
Hunter Donnelly	LB	6'1, 220	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8299

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Kevin Pierre-Louis	FS					13	67.0	9.5%	4.5	0	1	2	1	0
Trent Matthews	SS					13	62.5	8.9%	3.5	0	2	2	0	0
Tyree Simmons	CB	5'11, 185	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7759	12	34.0	4.8%	3.5	0	1	8	2	0
Preston Hodges	CB	5'11, 200	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7667	12	28.5	4.0%	1	0	0	1	0	0
Nick Januska	SS					13	27.0	3.8%	1	0	1	1	0	0
DeAndre Elliott	CB					11	26.5	3.8%	0	0	2	4	0	0
Jake Schlager	SS	6'0, 205	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7794	12	14.0	2.0%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Braylin Scott	CB	6'3, 185	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8256	12	7.5	1.1%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Justin Sweet	FS	5'10, 190	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7966	5	5.5	0.8%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Shun Johnson	CB	5'11, 170	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7519	11	2.5	0.4%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Kevin Nutt, Jr.	DB	5'10, 190	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7948	12	2.5	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Marcus Wilson	CB	5'10, 190	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7583
Devron Davis	CB	6'0, 210	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8600
Houston Haynes	S	6'4, 200	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7752
A'Keitheon Whitner	DB	5'11, 180	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7744
Chris Gaston	DB	6'2, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8319
Jamal Hicks	DB	6'3, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8285

8. Got safeties?

While the offense's surge accounted for a good portion of CSU's late-season improvement, the secondary raised its game as well. After allowing a passer rating of 131.2 through eight games, the Rams allowed just a 104.3 in the final five.

That four of the top five corners from this improved defense return is unquestionably a good thing. There were breakdowns, sure, but seniors Tyree Simmons and Preston Hodges, junior Shun Johnson, and sophomore Braylin Scott have put in plenty of reps.

The safety position though, is a major concern. The top three safeties -- Kevin Pierre-Louis, Trent Matthews, and Nick Januska -- are all gone, and while Jake Schlager and Justin Sweet have put together some reps, this was disconcerting enough for Bobo to go out and sign three JUCO defensive backs: Devron Davis, Houston Haynes, and A'Keitheon Whitner. Davis was highly touted and is big enough to play either corner or safety, but he'll be counted on to stick somewhere in the lineup sooner than later.

The edges of this defense appear to be well-manned, but a good portion of the backbone -- namely, the safety and defensive tackle positions -- have a scary lack of proven depth. English's hands might be tied if these areas don't produce quick solutions.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Hayden Hunt	5'11, 220	Sr.	52	46.0	1	18	23	78.8%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Braxton Davis	5'11, 170	So.	69	62.7	26	3	37.7%
Kyle Jacobs			4	62.3	1	0	25.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Wyatt Bryan	6'0, 175	So.	43-46	14-16	87.5%	2-6	33.3%
Braxton Davis	5'11, 170	So.	0-0	0-0	N/A	0-1	0.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Deionte Gaines	KR	5'8, 180	Jr.	18	23.4	0
Jordon Vaden	KR	6'3, 195	Sr.	7	31.4	0
Joe Hansley	PR			21	12.8	2
Preston Hodges	PR	5'11, 200	Sr.	3	6.3	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	73
Field Goal Efficiency	96
Punt Return Success Rate	41
Kick Return Success Rate	79
Punt Success Rate	19
Kickoff Success Rate	44

9. One more year of Hayden

Granted, Hayden Hunt probably benefited a bit from thin air, but CSU still has a keeper at the punter position. Hunt not only averaged 46 yards per kick but also produced 18 fair catches and had 23 of 52 punts downed inside the 20. Those are ridiculous numbers, and they offer a built-in field position advantage.

Hunt's return will make this a decent unit regardless of the other pieces, but those other pieces could use some work. Deionte Gaines and Jordon Vaden were explosive but inefficient kick returners, Wyatt Bryan missed three PATs and most of his longer field goals (albeit as a freshman), and the loss of Joe Hansley in punt returns hurts quite a bit. So decent might be all CSU can hope for here.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
2-Sep	vs. Colorado	82	-7.6	33%
10-Sep	UTSA	116	10.3	72%
17-Sep	Northern Colorado	NR	26.9	94%
24-Sep	at Minnesota	42	-16.9	16%
1-Oct	Wyoming	110	8.7	69%
8-Oct	Utah State	73	-3.6	42%
15-Oct	at Boise State	36	-18.2	15%
22-Oct	at UNLV	114	2.8	56%
5-Nov	Fresno State	94	2.1	55%
12-Nov	at Air Force	80	-9.2	30%
19-Nov	New Mexico	102	5.5	62%
26-Nov	at San Diego State	55	-13.8	21%
Projected wins: 5.7

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-16.4% (94)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	76 / 86
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	-12 / -9.5
2015 TO Luck/Game	-1.0
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	49% (58%, 40%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	7.2 (-0.2)

10. Liftoff is probably a year away

CSU's projection this year is a conservative 96th, mainly because the numbers deeply value returning production in the receiving corps and defensive backfield, and CSU lacks in both areas. The Rams haven't ranked lower than 89th since 2012, though, and if WR and DB are only a slight problem instead of a significant one, then CSU's strengths -- namely, the running game and linebacker play -- could shine.

Still, this is a red flag of sorts. Bobo will coax the most out of his offense, and last year's class really was a potentially exciting sign of things to come, but CSU is inexperience in a lot of the wrong places and might need to wait a year for the pieces to all click together.

By MWC standards, the Rams don't have a ton of tossup games. They are given between a 42 and 62 percent chance of winning in four games (Utah State, at UNLV, Fresno State, New Mexico), with all the other games either at one-in-three or worse (five) or two-in-three or better (three). To feel good about a bowl bid, they'll probably need to fare well at home, giving Hughes Stadium a few more happy memories before heading to new digs.