Air Force football and its fussy, underrated coach should win big again in 2016

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. Sustained gains

Former Notre Dame and Missouri head coach Dan Devine used to call himself a fussbudget. It's a great word that I think I have only seen used by Devine and in a Peanuts cartoon. A fussbudget is a worrier, a perfectionist with a permanent wince.

Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun has always struck me as one. He rubs other coaches the wrong way from time to time. He gives honest answers when something is bothering him. He interviews for other jobs. He doesn't seem like the type who will be completely happy anywhere.

He's also one hell of a coach. And Air Force afforded him an opportunity many coaches don't get: a chance to rebound.

Calhoun played quarterback during perhaps Air Force's most pivotal moment. His first season was 1985, when quarterback Bart Weiss and second-year head coach Fisher DeBerry were leading the Falcons to a 12-1 record and top-10 finish. They lost only to BYU and beat Notre Dame and Texas, among others.

Calhoun got full exposure. After the great 1985, the Falcons went 6-5, then 9-4, then 5-7. Up, down, up, down. When he served as their recruiting coordinator in 1993-94, they went 4-8 and 8-4.

Sustaining success is hard at a place with weight limits, service requirements, and no redshirts. When you've got the right mix of talent and experience, you can ride an underdog approach to a lovely season. In 59 years, Air Force has been to 25 bowls, has won at least eight games 21 times, and has spent parts of 16 seasons in the AP poll.

Considering the limitations, that's remarkable, not to mention a reminder that there are a lot of ways to win a football game. But the limitations catch up to you, at least for a while. In 23 seasons, DeBerry finished 8-5 or better nine times and twice won 12 games, but he also went 5-7 or worse five times, including in each of his final three years. DeBerry was an awesome coach, but the ups and downs were evident. And that has continued under Calhoun.

Calhoun spent eight years under the wing of another fantastic underdog coach: Jim Grobe. He spent six seasons at Ohio, as offensive coordinator for the last four. He joined Grobe at Wake Forest for two years before taking an interesting detour by joining the Denver Broncos. When Denver OC Gary Kubiak got the Houston Texans head coaching job, he made Calhoun his coordinator. To his option- and misdirection-based knowledge, he added zone blocking schemes and pro-style concepts. Then he returned to Colorado Springs to succeed DeBerry.

Though still an option-based team (out of necessity), Calhoun's Air Force has featured zone blocking and vertical passing to a degree that other service academies have not. The results have been strong. From 2007-10, the Falcons averaged 8.5 wins per year, then went 13-13 in 2011-12. And over the last two seasons, they've gone 18-9, winning 10 games in 2014 and a MWC Mountain title in 2015.

Oh yeah, and in the middle of this nice run, Air Force went 2-10 in 2013. After ranking 53rd in S&P+ in 2010, Calhoun's Falcons fell to 92nd, then 112th and 111th. The offense was inconsistent, and the defense was dreadful (122nd in Def. S&P+ in 2013). But given time to rectify issues, Calhoun did. The defense has ranked 60th and 71st the last two years. The offense hit a Calhoun-era high of 34th in Off. S&P+ last year.

Overnight, the program rebounded. And in 2015, Air Force sustained the gains of the out-of-nowhere, 10-losses-to-10-wins turnaround. Calhoun, happy or not, proved himself again.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 8-6 | Adj. Record: 9-5 | Final F/+ Rk: 63 | Final S&P+ Rk: 52
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
5-Sep	Morgan State	N/A	63-7	W	90%	100%	+39.8
12-Sep	San Jose State	89	37-16	W	66%	85%	+13.8	+15.0
19-Sep	at Michigan State	9	21-35	L	46%	35%	+11.6	+12.0
3-Oct	at Navy	21	11-33	L	23%	2%	-15.8	-16.5
10-Oct	Wyoming	115	31-17	W	60%	93%	-15.4	-10.0
17-Oct	at Colorado State	86	23-38	L	12%	1%	-20.3	-18.0
24-Oct	Fresno State	103	42-14	W	82%	100%	+10.6	+10.5
31-Oct	at Hawaii	120	58-7	W	97%	100%	+41.9	+44.0
7-Nov	Army	108	20-3	W	87%	100%	-5.1	0.0
14-Nov	Utah State	53	35-28	W	69%	83%	+5.4	+8.5
20-Nov	at Boise State	37	37-30	W	91%	98%	+10.4	+19.0
28-Nov	at New Mexico	99	35-47	L	25%	17%	-26.8	-21.5
5-Dec	at San Diego State	43	24-27	L	63%	52%	+0.2	+1.5
29-Dec	vs. California	29	36-55	L	17%	2%	-18.6	-12.0

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	34.6	34	28.7	71
Points Per Game	33.8	39	25.5	48

2. Unsustainable brilliance

Air Force's 2015 was a three-act play. The Falcons began with a romp over Morgan State, competed well against eventual CFP participant Michigan State, and handled San Jose State and Wyoming. But they also got romped by rival Navy and self-destructed with turnovers against Colorado State.

Midway, Air Force was 3-3, looking like a bowl team but nothing much more than that. And then the Falcons found altitude.

• First 6 games
  Average percentile performance: 50% (~top 65) | Record: 3-3 | Average score: AFA 31, Opp 24 | Average performance vs. spread: -3.5 PPG
• Next 5 games
  Average percentile performance: 85% (~top 20) | Record: 5-0 | Average score: AFA 38, Opp 16 | Average performance vs. spread: +16.4 PPG
• Last 3 games
  Average percentile performance: 35% (~top 85) | Record: 0-3 | Average score: Opp 43, AFA 32 | Average performance vs. spread: -10.7 PPG

Air Force went from 3-3 to 8-3, Mountain Division champion. The offense averaged at least 6.2 yards per play in each game of the win streak. The defense allowed 4.7 or fewer three times. The Falcons outgained Utah State by 141 yards, then went to Boise and outgained the preseason MWC favorite by 229. This wasn't an instance where the perceived underdog beats good teams with turnovers or lucky bounces; Utah State and Boise State were lucky to stay within seven points. It was unlucky that Air Force didn't win by more.

This surge, in which Air Force played like a legitimate top-20 team, couldn't last. With the division title clinched, the Falcons laid an egg in Albuquerque, and they were comfortably outgained in both the MWC title game and Armed Forces Bowl. The defense gave out, and the offense couldn't make up the difference.

This was a half-season of brilliance and a half-season of scuffling. But even with the late fade ... damn, were those Utah State and Boise State performances impressive.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.32	37	IsoPPP+	112.2	36
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	46.0%	22	Succ. Rt. +	109.8	32
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	29.3	58	Def. FP+	28.8	50
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	5.2	13	Redzone S&P+	114.6	23
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	17.9		ACTUAL	23	+5.1

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	33	33	32	36
RUSHING	4	19	22	20
PASSING	123	7	76	2
Standard Downs		21	21	19
Passing Downs		71	85	62

Q1 Rk	65	1st Down Rk	33
Q2 Rk	40	2nd Down Rk	10
Q3 Rk	24	3rd Down Rk	62
Q4 Rk	16

3. They figured you out

Air Force's offensive strength was adaptability. Starting quarterback Nate Romine tore his ACL and MCL late in the Week 2 win over San Jose State, but after a slow start, senior Karson Roberts ended up performing even better than Romine. Fullbacks D.J. Johnson and Shayne Davern both missed significant portions. But until the postseason, at least, the Falcons just kept improving.

It was the same within a given game. Air Force ranked 65th in first-quarter S&P+, 40th in the second quarter, 24th in the third, and 16th in the fourth. As opponents' game plans became clearer, Air Force's adjustments became more effective.

Coordinator Mike Thiessen proved himself tactically nimble, especially when it came to the big pass play. Air Force quarterbacks completed just 34 percent, at 8.3 yards per completion, with a 61.8 passer rating in the first quarter; in the final three quarters: 56 percent completion rate, 23.3 yards per completion, 182.2 passer rating. Once opponents got lulled in by the run, it was over.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Karson Roberts					77	148	1595	11	11	52.0%	3	2.0%	10.5
Nate Romine	5'11, 195	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7667	7	18	143	2	1	38.9%	0	0.0%	7.9
Pate Davis	6'0, 180	Sr.	NR
Ryan Brand	5'8, 193	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8048

4. Got a quarterback? Got two?

Romine's career has been beset with ups and downs. He saw significant action as a freshman over the second half of Air Force's miserable 2013, then took a backseat to then-senior Kale Pearson during 2014's rebound. He was the heir apparent, but his 2015 ended after just a couple of games.

There are no redshirts in Colorado Springs, so Romine enters his senior season again as the perceived starter, but he's still got some recovering to do. In the meantime, Pate Davis and former three-star signee Ryan Brand have been splitting first-team snaps in the spring.

The role of Air Force quarterback is one prone to injury -- you're running the option, and when you do pass, you're often looking pretty far downfield. That opens you up to hits (though with a great offensive line, QBs didn't take many hits last year).

You're probably going to need more than one QB. And it will be interesting to see what happens if or when Romine is forced to miss more time.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Jacobi Owens	FB	6'0, 202	Sr.	NR	NR	207	1096	7	5.3	4.8	39.6%	4	2
Karson Roberts	QB					165	752	10	4.6	4.0	41.8%	7	4
D.J. Johnson	FB	5'10, 235	Sr.	NR	NR	82	425	6	5.2	3.6	40.2%	2	2
Benton Washington	RB	5'11, 205	Jr.	NR	NR	55	321	4	5.8	3.4	52.7%	1	0
Timothy McVey	RB	5'9, 190	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7889	51	435	9	8.5	11.9	39.2%	1	0
Bryan Driskell	RB	5'8, 190	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8059	50	363	0	7.3	7.1	48.0%	0	0
Shayne Davern	FB	6'0, 240	Sr.	NR	NR	46	323	4	7.0	9.6	34.8%	0	0
Garrett Brown	WR					35	259	1	7.4	7.6	51.4%	1	1
Tyler Williams	WR	5'10, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7900	31	182	1	5.9	3.7	61.3%	1	0
Aubrey Duty-Tyson	FB	6'0, 240	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7794	24	101	1	4.2	1.8	33.3%	2	1
Nate Romine	QB	5'11, 195	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7667	22	111	1	5.0	9.3	31.8%	2	0
Jacob Stafford	RB					9	27	0	3.0	0.0	0.0%	0	0
Jake LaCoste	RB	5'10, 205	Jr.	NR	NR	7	36	0	5.1	2.0	42.9%	0	0
Scott Hester	RB	6'0, 230	Sr.	NR	NR	6	34	1	5.7	2.3	50.0%	0	0

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Jalen Robinette	WR	6'4, 215	Sr.	NR	NR	58	26	641	44.8%	37.7%	11.1	50.0%	43.1%	2.46
Garrett Brown	WR					40	27	557	67.5%	26.0%	13.9	60.0%	52.5%	2.49
Garrett Griffin	TE					19	12	208	63.2%	12.3%	10.9	68.4%	57.9%	1.83
Timothy McVey	RB	5'9, 190	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7889	12	10	307	83.3%	7.8%	25.6	75.0%	58.3%	4.38
Ryan Reffitt	TE	6'5, 230	Jr.	NR	NR	8	2	14	25.0%	5.2%	1.8	25.0%	12.5%	1.05
Bryan Driskell	RB	5'8, 190	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8059	4	2	11	50.0%	2.6%	2.8	75.0%	25.0%	0.93
Alex Ludowig	WR					3	2	45	66.7%	1.9%	15.0	33.3%	66.7%	2.37
Tyler Williams	WR	5'10, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7900	3	2	10	66.7%	1.9%	3.3	33.3%	0.0%	0.00
Benton Washington	RB	5'11, 205	Jr.	NR	NR	3	2	1	66.7%	1.9%	0.3	66.7%	0.0%	0.00
Shayne Davern	RB	6'0, 240	Sr.	NR	NR	1	1	33	100.0%	0.6%	33.0	100.0%	100.0%	3.34
Karson Roberts	QB					1	1	20	100.0%	0.6%	20.0	0.0%	100.0%	2.41
Jacobi Owens	FB	6'0, 202	Sr.	NR	NR	1	0	0	0.0%	0.6%	0.0	100.0%	0.0%	0.00
Andrew Smith	WR					1	0	0	0.0%	0.6%	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.00
Josh Self	TE	6'3, 225	Sr.	NR	NR
Andrew Daughtery	WR	6'2, 190	Jr.	NR	NR
Cody Bronkar	WR	6'2, 197	So.	NR	NR

5. Fullbacks and play-action

The offensive line was the driver of success.

In 2014, Air Force ranked 100th in Adj. Line Yards and 84th in Adj. Sack Rate, then lost three starters. But offensive line coach Clay Hendrix found the right recipe last fall; the Falcons improved to 13th and second, respectively (they allowed just three sacks all season), and produced two all-conference performers in tackle Sevrin Remmo and guard A.J. Ruechel.

With almost no defender presence in the backfield, Air Force had time to establish its option and pull the ball back and look deep. As is customary, Hendrix now has to replace three more starters (including Remmo and Ruechel) but will be calling from a pool of juniors and seniors.

If the line holds up, the skill positions should do their jobs. Last year's top seven running backs return, including leader Jacobi Owens and explosive options in Timothy McVey, Bryan Driskell, and Shayne Davern.

Meanwhile, one of the two primary receivers is back. Air Force must replace Garrett Brown and his 13.9 yards per target, but big senior Jalen Robinette, a three-year contributor who has caught 85 passes for 1,738 yards and 12 touchdowns in his career, is back for one more go-round. Four to five solid running backs and a big-play receiver: That's pretty much what Air Force's offense requires. If the quarterback and offensive line are up to snuff, this offense will again play at a high level.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	114.3	3.29	3.56	42.1%	75.6%	14.2%	448.3	2.7%	0.0%
Rank	13	15	33	27	20	4	2	22	1

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Sevrin Remmo	RT					14	17	2015 1st All-MWC
A.J. Ruechel	RG					14	27	2015 2nd All-MWC
Matt Rochell	LT					14	39
Colin Sandor	LG	6'2, 275	Sr.	NR	0.7333	14	18
Alex Norton	C	6'2, 288	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7667	8	8
Dylan Vail	C	6'2, 280	Sr.	NR	NR	6	6
Allen Caunitz	RG	6'4, 250	Sr.	NR	NR	0	1
James Rast	LT	6'4, 265	Jr.	2 stars (5.1)	0.7372	0	0
Jackson Wilson	LG	6'3, 280	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7667	0	0
Jake Barnhorst	RT	6'4, 260	Jr.	NR	NR	0	0
Andrew Gikas	OL	6'3, 230	Sr.	NR	NR	0	0
Patrick Halloran	OL	6'4, 255	Sr.	NR	NR	0	0
Jordan Tyler	OL	6'2, 260	Jr.	NR	NR	0	0

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.64	128	IsoPPP+	88.0	105
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	35.2%	13	Succ. Rt. +	117.9	12
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	29.1	88	Off. FP+	29.5	77
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.7	90	Redzone S&P+	113.6	25
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	16.9		ACTUAL	18.0	+1.1

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	32	71	12	105
RUSHING	36	47	4	95
PASSING	46	79	61	87
Standard Downs		78	6	118
Passing Downs		65	59	74

Q1 Rk	112	1st Down Rk	66
Q2 Rk	13	2nd Down Rk	91
Q3 Rk	55	3rd Down Rk	80
Q4 Rk	31

6. Damn the torpedoes (and the consequences)

The single biggest reason for Air Force's stark turnaround was a defense that went from identity-free to as aggressive as any in the country. The Falcons ranked 13th in success rate allowed in 2014 and 112th in IsoPPP, which measures the magnitude of successful plays.

They were willing to allow big plays (77 gains of 20-plus yards, 120th in FBS) to force three-and-outs and turnovers. If the balance is there, this is a perfect way to run a college defense.

It was the same in 2015. Air Force again ranked 13th in success rate allowed, but there was at times too much slippage in the big-play department. The Falcons gave up only 70 gains of 20-plus this time (101st), but 28 were 40-plus yards. Only Arizona State allowed more 40-yarders. The result: a ranking of 128th in IsoPPP, dead last.

That was a bit much. You can give up big plays if you're making stops in return, but a couple of 40-yarders per game will kill you. Air Force made as many run stops near the line as anybody, but if you got to the second level of the defense, you were running until your legs got tired.

A lot of that can be ascribed to youth. Air Force returned only four starters last year, and as you see below, very few seniors were in the rotation -- the Falcons return four of their five primary linemen, seven of nine linebackers, and five of six defensive backs. That means good things for 2016, and it tells you that inexperience was probably a handicap in 2015.

(The Air Force defense, by the way, ALSO tended to adapt and adjust well. The Falcons ranked 112th in first-quarter S&P+ but 13th in the second. They fell to 55th in the third, then improved to 31st in the fourth. Better do your damage early.)

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	116.4	2.48	2.59	28.4%	67.4%	22.9%	133.9	5.0%	11.1%
Rank	12	16	11	2	77	30	19	65	16

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Alex Hansen	DE					14	53.0	8.1%	15.5	7.5	0	3	1	0
Lochlin Deeks	NT	6'4, 265	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7900	14	23.0	3.5%	5.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Santo Coppola	DT	6'4, 285	Jr.	NR	NR	13	13.0	2.0%	4.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Samuel Byers	DT	6'5, 275	Sr.	NR	NR	10	10.0	1.5%	3.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
David Harris	DL	6'0, 269	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	NR	4	8.0	1.2%	2.5	2.0	0	1	0	0
Jalen Lacy	NT	6'4, 250	Sr.	NR	NR	12	4.5	0.7%	1.0	0.5	0	0	0	0
Kellen Cleveland	DE	6'4, 235	Sr.	NR	NR	4	1.5	0.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Cody Moorhead	DL	6'5, 275	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	NR	12	1.5	0.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Grant Ross	ILB	6'0, 220	Jr.	NR	NR	14	45.5	7.0%	5.0	1.5	0	0	1	0
Claude Alexander III	ILB	6'1, 225	Sr.	NR	NR	13	45.0	6.9%	10.5	4.0	0	0	0	0
D.J. Dunn, Jr.	OLB	6'3, 240	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	NR	13	38.5	5.9%	12.5	6.0	0	2	0	0
Patrick Healy	ILB	6'1, 225	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7656	10	29.5	4.5%	1.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Connor Healy	ILB					9	23.0	3.5%	1.5	1.5	0	1	0	0
Jack Flor	ILB	6'2, 225	Jr.	NR	NR	14	23.0	3.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jacob Onyechi	OLB	6'1, 195	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7667	12	21.5	3.3%	4.0	0.0	0	2	0	0
Ryan Watson	OLB	6'3, 230	Sr.	NR	NR	14	17.5	2.7%	4.5	3.0	0	0	1	0
Dexter Walker	OLB					11	15.5	2.4%	2.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Matt Evans	LB	6'4, 225	Jr.	NR	NR	12	1.5	0.2%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Omar Gardea	LB	6'2, 225	Jr.	NR	NR	3	1.5	0.2%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Shaquille Vereen	LB	6'0, 200	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7667
Brody Bagnall	LB	6'3, 230	So.	NR	NR

7. Only one (really important) guy to replace

Only 28 percent of opponent carries gained even five yards on Air Force last year. Unadjusted for opponent, that's the second-best opportunity rate in the country; the Falcons also boasted a top-20 sack rate, presenting one of the most active, exciting front sevens in college football. There was obvious, aforementioned downside to this approach, but defensive coordinator Steve Russ knew how to get people into the backfield and around the ball.

Russ has basically the same cast of characters to work with this year. Master blitzer D.J. Dunn Jr. is back, as are strong run-stopping inside linebackers Grant Ross and Claude Alexander III. Lochlin Deeks, a former star recruit who broke out as a junior, is also back.

Only one guy doesn't return, but he's a big one. Alex Hansen was Air Force's best run stopper and pass rusher, with 7.5 sacks and eight non-sack tackles for loss. He picked up the slack after Air Force lost two play-making linebackers following 2014, and now someone else has to pick up the slack for his departure.

It's hard to predict breakout performers at Air Force, where most guys don't have recruiting profiles and often go straight from being unlisted on the roster to landing on the two-deep. But keep an eye on senior nose guard David Harris, who started strong but missed much of the season with injury, and junior linebackers Matt Evans, Omar Gardea, and Shaq Vereen, who all seem to boast strong athleticism but might not get a chance to shine until the first-stringers graduate (or, I guess, get hurt).

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Roland Ladipo	CB	5'10, 185	Sr.	NR	NR	14	65.5	10.0%	4.5	1	3	17	1	0
Weston Steelhammer	SS	6'2, 200	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7733	14	63.0	9.6%	10.5	1	5	7	0	0
Brodie Hicks	FS	6'2, 200	Sr.	NR	NR	13	52.5	8.0%	1	0	2	2	0	0
Jesse Washington	CB	6'0, 185	Sr.	NR	0.7800	14	33.5	5.1%	2	1	0	5	1	0
Hayes Linn	FS	6'0, 185	Sr.	NR	NR	14	16.5	2.5%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Kalon Baker	CB					7	12.5	1.9%	0	0	1	1	0	0
Marquis Griffin	CB	5'11, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	14	6.5	1.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Tyler Weaver	SS	6'1, 210	Sr.	NR	NR	14	4.0	0.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jayce Webster	DB	5'10, 175	Jr.	NR	NR
Brayden Hill	DB	5'10, 205	Sr.	NR	NR
Tyler Jackson	DB	6'0, 192	Jr.	NR	NR
Dailen Sutton	CB	6'1, 170	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7652
Kyle Floyd	SS	6'0, 200	So.	NR	NR

8. Big plays for, big plays against

Opponents completed only 53 percent of their passes but averaged 14.4 yards per completion in 2015. That pretty much tells the story. Air Force pressured the quarterback and attacked the ball when it was in the air. That often worked out beautifully, and it often went horribly wrong. And opponents' passing success usually dictated the winner of the game.

• Opposing QBs in Air Force wins: 47% completion rate, 11.8 yards per completion, 3.4% INT rate, 97.5 passer rating
• Opposing QBs in Air Force losses: 65% completion rate, 18.3 yards per completion, 1.6% INT rate, 202.1 passer rating

That is ... a stark difference.

For better and worse, this year's secondary will resemble last year's, only with slightly more experience. That probably means more big plays allowed, but it also means another year of dynamic, aptly-named strong safety Weston Steelhammer, who recorded 10.5 TFLs, defensed 12 passes, and got himself ejected for targeting very early in the bowl loss to Cal. And it means another year of corners Roland Lapido and Jesse Washington, who combined for 6.5 tackles for loss and 25 passes defensed.

If you can protect your QB, and if your receivers can fight off physical coverage, you will probably score a lot of points on Air Force. But if you can't, you might not find a Plan B.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Steve Brosy	5'11, 210	Sr.	33	37.0	3	12	11	69.7%
Brett Dunn			13	41.5	0	7	3	76.9%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Luke Strebel	5'10, 170	Jr.	42	62.1	24	3	57.1%
Drew Oehrle			38	63.2	23	0	60.5%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Luke Strebel	5'10, 170	Jr.	37-37	5-6	83.3%	5-5	100.0%
Drew Oehrle			18-20	1-1	100.0%	2-4	50.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Tyler Williams	KR	5'10, 185	Jr.	15	22.2	0
Bryan Driskell	KR	5'8, 190	Sr.	8	19.5	0
Garrett Brown	PR			15	9.3	1

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	23
Field Goal Efficiency	11
Punt Return Success Rate	123
Kick Return Success Rate	14
Punt Success Rate	105
Kickoff Success Rate	46

9. Kickoffs good, punts bad

Shootouts worked pretty well for Air Force in one regard: It meant more kickoffs. That was good news for a special teams unit that was efficient in punt returns and solid in kick coverage but could neither cover nor return punts with any consistency. Garrett Brown did return a punt for a score, and Steve Brosy's punts were certainly high. But the punts didn't go very far, and Brown didn't have many good returns beyond that one.

Luckily, the good aspects of this unit return. Luke Strebel's place-kicking, combined with his deep kickoffs, make him one of the conference's more important special teams weapons.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
3-Sep	Abilene Christian	NR	32.6	97%
10-Sep	Georgia State	105	12.0	76%
24-Sep	at Utah State	73	-4.8	39%
1-Oct	Navy	66	0.4	51%
8-Oct	at Wyoming	110	7.4	67%
15-Oct	vs. New Mexico	102	7.7	67%
22-Oct	Hawaii	118	16.3	83%
29-Oct	at Fresno State	94	0.8	52%
5-Nov	at Army	124	11.3	74%
12-Nov	Colorado State	96	9.2	70%
19-Nov	at San Jose State	92	0.7	52%
26-Nov	Boise State	36	-5.5	38%
Projected wins: 7.7

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-14.3% (90)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	125 / 121
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	-5 / -1.0
2015 TO Luck/Game	-1.5
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	60% (34%, 85%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	8.7 (-0.7)

10. The fussbudget will probably win again

Last year's schedule was impressive, with road games against teams ranked No. 9, 21, 37, and (in the conference title game) 43 in S&P+, plus a home game against No. 53 Utah State.

At first glance, this year's schedule offers far less resistance. Navy and Boise State visit Colorado Springs (and Navy won't be nearly as good), Utah State is projected to regress, and instead of Michigan State in non-conference play, the Falcons welcome Georgia State. Nine of 12 opponents are projected 92nd or worse.

That offers some slack. It is quite conceivable that the Air Force defense improves and the offense holds steady, pushing Air Force toward 10 or 11 wins with a top-50 rating. But if the Falcons do slide on offense and still give up too many big plays, the schedule should assure they win another eight or nine games.