Utah State has an awesome QB and a ton of regrouping to do in 2016

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1. The Duke of mid-majors

Through what is now more than five years of writing these offseason previews, I have established certain benchmarks along the way. "Here's where I talk about hard jobs [at ULM, Wyoming, Hawaii, etc.]." "Here's where I note Marshall recruits better than everybody else in Conference USA." "Here's where I talk myself into North Carolina/USC." "Here's where I disappoint everyone by talking about how incredible Alabama is going to be."

Today comes a reliable benchmark. Here's where I marvel at the steady ship that Utah State has become.

From my 2013 preview:

In 2012, not only did Utah State finish 16th in the polls and win 11 games (more than former head coach Brent Guy won in four seasons from 2005-08), but the program looked like it belonged, like it had always belonged.

From 2014:

Taking a moribund program (here's your annual reminder that the Aggies won 15 games in the six years before Gary Andersen took over and didn't have a winning record from 1997 to 2011) and putting together a short span of success is hard but reasonably common. Sustaining that, especially through a coaching change, is anything but common.

From last year:

Four years after finding hope in a 4-8 record, Utah State gets total benefit of the doubt until proved otherwise.

For as unchanging as college football can be, it does change.

In my original USU preview in 2012, I called Utah State the Duke of the WAC; at that time, I was referring to an athletic program that had mastered basketball but couldn't figure football out. USU was in the middle of an incredible run on the court -- the Aggies went 87-17 under Stew Morrill from 2009-11 -- but hadn't finished with a winning record in football since John L. Smith went 6-5 in 1996.

Five years later, Utah State and Duke appear to still have quite a bit in common. The football programs at both have become known for doing more with less. Utah State is the smallest of three FBS schools in a state that doesn't produce a ton of FBS-caliber talent, and Duke has a small fan base and rigorous academic standards. But under David Cutcliffe, the Blue Devils have won 27 games in three seasons.

Utah State, meanwhile, has bowled for five straight seasons. And while the win total trailed off in 2015 -- the Aggies went 6-7 after averaging 10 per year from 2012-14 -- the quality really didn't. They ranked 46th in S&P+ last fall, up from the No. 52 ranking the 10-4 team of 2014 pulled. Their schedule strength increased considerably (five opponents ranked in the S&P+ top 50), and they held their own, especially in a fantastic midseason run.

In 2016, the beat goes on. Last year, head coach Matt Wells had to replace both coordinators (OC Kevin McGiven went to Oregon State with Andersen, DC Todd Orlando went to Houston with Tom Herman). This year, he does it again -- OC Josh Heupel went to Missouri, and DC Kevin Clune followed McGiven to Oregon State -- and replaces most of his defensive front seven and beloved quarterback Chuckie Keeton, who finally used up his eligibility. But if the new hires are up to snuff, he should find things to like about the personnel he returns.

And again, until proved otherwise, Utah State gets the benefit of the doubt.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 6-7 | Adj. Record: 7-6 | Final F/+ Rk: 53 | Final S&P+ Rk: 46
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
3-Sep	Southern Utah	N/A	12-9	W	33%	35%	-12.8
11-Sep	at Utah	22	14-24	L	51%	30%	+0.0	+4.0
19-Sep	at Washington	13	17-31	L	25%	2%	-11.1	-8.5
3-Oct	Colorado State	86	33-18	W	90%	97%	+16.0	+10.5
10-Oct	at Fresno State	103	56-14	W	97%	100%	+28.8	+30.5
16-Oct	Boise State	37	52-26	W	98%	100%	+31.0	+35.5
23-Oct	at San Diego State	43	14-48	L	18%	0%	-37.7	-39.0
30-Oct	Wyoming	115	58-27	W	87%	100%	+9.7	+3.0
7-Nov	at New Mexico	99	13-14	L	77%	90%	-16.6	-15.5
14-Nov	at Air Force	63	28-35	L	44%	17%	-5.4	-8.5
21-Nov	Nevada	97	31-27	W	46%	37%	-16.0	-11.0
28-Nov	BYU	35	28-51	L	42%	14%	-23.3	-20.0
22-Dec	vs. Akron	84	21-23	L	65%	58%	-10.0	-9.0

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	29.1	63	21.8	26
Points Per Game	29.0	64	26.7	61

2. Your retirement year is usually your worst

Keeton battled through so much to return for 2015. He led USU to its first bowl in forever in 2011 as a true freshman, then catapulted into stardom as a sophomore; during USU's run to 11 wins, he threw for 3,373 yards and 27 touchdowns and rushed for another 619. He was mobile, confident, and accurate. And in 2013, he improved even more. Through five games as a junior (which included trips to Utah, Air Force, and USC), he was completing 71 percent with 17 touchdowns and just one interception.

And then he tore his knee up. He returned in 2014, looked like a shadow of his former self, and tore his knee up again. Given a fifth year, he returned for his 2015 curtain call.

Chuckie wasn't very good last year. It pains me to say that about maybe my favorite player of 2012. Keeton completed barely 50 percent and threw four touchdowns to seven interceptions. His passer rating was a paltry 94.1. Take out a decent performance against Utah, and it falls to 86.1. That's horrific.

Even worse, USU got definitively better when Keeton missed time in the middle of the year with another injury. Sophomore Kent Myers came in and did a better Chuckie impression than Chuckie.

• Utah State with Keeton at QB (regular season)
  Record: 2-3 (second-order wins: 1.2) | Average percentile performance: 39% | Points per game: 20.4
• Utah State with Myers at QB (regular season)
  Record: 4-3 (second-order wins: 5.0) | Average percentile performance: 73% | Points per game: 36.3

Keeton and Myers split time in the bowl game and ended up throwing the same number of passes in 2015. Keeton's 199 passes resulted in 1,001 yards, four touchdowns, and seven interceptions; Myers' resulted in 1,593 yards, 16 touchdowns, and three picks. The Aggies were lucky to win two games under Keeton and were unlucky to win only four with Myers. The torch was passed, but Keeton got a chance to finish his career upright, and it was bittersweet.

3. Seriously, Chuckie's ceiling was so high for a while there

Here's what he did to Weber State at the beginning of 2013. Yes, it was Weber State, but come on.

The bar is high for Myers this year, not only because he was strong in 2015 but because 2013 was only three years ago. We remember what a Utah State QB can do.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.31	39	IsoPPP+	96.2	85
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	38.4%	102	Succ. Rt. +	99.3	75
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	29.6	63	Def. FP+	27.8	30
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.2	90	Redzone S&P+	102.8	64
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	24.2		ACTUAL	24	-0.2

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	93	90	75	85
RUSHING	71	80	60	82
PASSING	88	82	87	77
Standard Downs		62	44	68
Passing Downs		94	98	89

Q1 Rk	99	1st Down Rk	75
Q2 Rk	31	2nd Down Rk	42
Q3 Rk	65	3rd Down Rk	104
Q4 Rk	85

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Chuckie Keeton					104	199	1001	4	7	52.3%	7	3.4%	4.6
Kent Myers	6'0, 195	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8181	121	199	1593	16	3	60.8%	14	6.6%	7.1
Damion Hobbs	6'2, 220	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8538	4	5	73	1	0	80.0%	0	0.0%	14.6
DJ Nelson	5'9, 200	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7833
Cade Smith	6'0, 200	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8067
Jordan Love	6'3, 180	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8192

4. Myers is ready

After bringing in Heupel for a one-off year, Wells elected to promote from within. He still maintains a former Oklahoma quarterback in the coordinator role -- Matt's brother Luke was a backup at OU from 1997-99 and has spent the last three seasons as USU's co-coordinator -- but he promoted young receivers coach Jovon Bouknight, a former star receiver at Wyoming, to co-coordinator as well. I'm going to assume decent continuity.

Considering how good Myers looked in the middle of the season, there might not be anything wrong with that. Myers was up-and-down as sophomores tend to be -- in eight games with at least 17 passes, his completion rate was 70 percent or higher on four occasions and 54 percent or lower on three -- but the potential was obvious. He was able to lead an efficient attack in some games, and he was able to utilize the play-action deep ball in others. And all the while, he proved explosive in the open field. He rushed for 191 yards in the win over Colorado State and averaged 8 highlight yards per opportunity, strong for a QB.

If Myers gets hurt (while USU has suffered enough QB injuries to buy some low-injury karma, that's not something you should count on), his backups are intriguing. Damion Hobbs is a well-regarded former Oregon signee, and there are two other former three-star recruits.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Devante Mays	RB	5'11, 220	Sr.	NR	0.7883	165	966	9	5.9	6.2	43.0%	0	0
LaJuan Hunt	RB	5'8, 195	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7906	106	338	5	3.2	3.3	25.5%	2	2
Kent Myers	QB	6'0, 195	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8181	72	448	3	6.2	8.0	38.9%	6	3
Chuckie Keeton	QB					43	230	1	5.3	6.4	41.9%	8	2
Damion Hobbs	QB	6'2, 220	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8538	19	109	1	5.7	4.7	52.6%	1	1
Justen Hervey	RB	5'9, 195	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8006	14	47	1	3.4	1.2	35.7%	0	0
Tonny Lindsey	RB	5'9, 190	Jr.	NR	NR	12	93	0	7.8	6.5	50.0%	0	0
Hunter Sharp	WR					8	20	0	2.5	1.9	25.0%	2	1
Nick Vigil	LB					6	17	1	2.8	1.5	33.3%	0	0
Devonte Robinson	WR					4	-2	0	-0.5	0.0	0.0%	0	0
Morian Walker Jr.	RB	6'1, 215	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8222

5. Utah State always seems to have a breakthrough running back.

USU began 2015 with LaJuan Hunt getting a lion's share of the carries, but JUCO transfer DeVante Mays overtook him. And while Myers replacing Keeton made a huge difference in USU's output, this move made an impact as well. Mays had a couple of duds (agaisnt New Mexico and BYU: 36 carries, 83 yards), but he rushed for 176 against Wyoming, 133 against Nevada, and 124 against a good Akron defensive front. And his full-season numbers were both efficient (43 percent opportunity rate) and explosive (6.2 highlight yards per opportunity).

A full year with Mays as starter should produce a 1,000-yard rusher, especially considering how experienced the line is. Four of last year's five starters return, along with four of five second-stringers.

Hunt struggled drastically in 2015, but if he is ineffective again, USU has a few other options. Either of two three-star youngsters (sophomore Justen Hervey, freshman Morian Walker Jr.) could break through, and Tonny Lindsey was effective in a small handful of carries.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Hunter Sharp	WR-X					109	71	827	65.1%	29.0%	7.6	58.7%	45.9%	1.63
Wyatt Houston	TE	6'5, 255	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7726	45	25	307	55.6%	12.0%	6.8	57.8%	48.9%	1.33
Devonte Robinson	WR-X					41	20	326	48.8%	10.9%	8.0	56.1%	34.1%	2.24
Andrew Rodriguez	WR-T	5'10, 185	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7000	37	27	281	73.0%	9.8%	7.6	54.1%	40.5%	1.62
LaJuan Hunt	RB	5'8, 195	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7906	30	27	238	90.0%	8.0%	7.9	43.3%	43.3%	1.69
Braelon Roberts	WR-Z	6'3, 200	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	NR	25	17	150	68.0%	6.6%	6.0	60.0%	56.0%	0.97
Brandon Swindall	WR-Z					24	14	173	58.3%	6.4%	7.2	45.8%	54.2%	1.24
Tyler Fox	WR-Z	5'11, 175	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8172	16	5	75	31.3%	4.3%	4.7	50.0%	25.0%	1.55
Kennedy Williams	WR-T	5'8, 160	Sr.	NR	NR	15	6	62	40.0%	4.0%	4.1	60.0%	40.0%	0.95
Zach Van Leeuwen	WR-X	6'0, 185	So.	2 stars (5.4)	NR	10	6	61	60.0%	2.7%	6.1	80.0%	50.0%	1.15
Dax Raymond	TE	6'5, 235	So.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	9	4	72	44.4%	2.4%	8.0	33.3%	44.4%	1.65
Jaren Colston-Green	WR	6'3, 205	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8106	3	2	54	66.7%	0.8%	18.0	66.7%	66.7%	3.12
Chris Copier	TE	6'6, 250	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7883	2	1	35	50.0%	0.5%	17.5	100.0%	50.0%	2.87
Landon Horne	TE	6'3, 240	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7444
Chad Artist	WR	6'3, 180	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8008
Alex Byers	WR	6'2, 175	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7959
Ron'Quavion Tarver	WR	6'3, 205	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8000
Craig Rucker	WR	5'8, 165	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7893

6. Who's catching the deep balls?

Last year's USU offense had a relatively QB-friendly approach -- the Aggies threw slightly more than the national average on standard downs and ran more than average on passing downs. And in Hunter Sharp and tight end Wyatt Houston, they also had a couple of strong efficiency weapons to deploy on first down.

Houston returns, but Sharp and Devonte Robinson, the top two targets at wide receiver, do not. And considering how much experience in the receiving corps seems to matter, that's a scary prospect.

Junior (and former star recruit) Braelon Roberts could step into a solid possession role; among semi-frequent targets, his 56 percent success rate was easily the best, even if he only averaged 8.8 yards per catch. But Sharp was USU's rock, and Robinson was the big-play guy. I'm not sure where the big plays come from now. A three-star youngster like sophomore Tyler Fox or redshirt freshman Chad Artist? A JUCO transfer like Alex Byers (who, like Sharp, comes from Antelope Valley JC) or Ron'Quavion Tarver?

Myers was at times quite effective at mixing in early-down bombs with the run game. Does he have a downfield threat this year?

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	102.4	2.66	2.95	37.7%	60.5%	24.3%	134.0	3.4%	7.4%
Rank	62	104	93	84	102	116	32	33	64

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Jake Simonich	RT	6'5, 300	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7838	13	28
Austin Stephens	C	6'3, 305	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7800	13	27
Taani Fisilau	RG					12	24
Tyshon Mosley	LG	6'5, 305	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7847	9	20
Austin Albrecht	LT	6'5, 295	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7000	13	15
Ben Wysocki	LG					5	5
Preston Brooksby	LT	6'5, 285	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7759	0	0
Jarom Ioane	C	6'6, 330	Jr.	NR	NR	0	0
KJ Uluave	RG	6'5, 280	So.	NR	NR	0	0
Cody Boyer	RT	6'6, 275	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7859	0	0
Brandon Taukeiaho	OL	6'3, 310	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7667	0	0
Andrew Chen	OL	6'3, 285	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7606	0	0
Jude Hockel	OL	6'5, 285	Sr.	NR	0.7800	0	0
Sean Taylor	OL	6'5, 275	Jr.	NR	NR	0	0
Demytrick Ali'ifua	OL	6'3, 280	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)	NR
Villiamu McMoore	OL	6'5, 265	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7907

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.22	51	IsoPPP+	113.8	28
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	36.4%	20	Succ. Rt. +	114.7	22
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	32.5	17	Off. FP+	34.1	6
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	5.1	120	Redzone S&P+	104.1	49
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	18.5		ACTUAL	21.0	+2.5

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	17	23	22	28
RUSHING	47	11	19	12
PASSING	12	36	29	42
Standard Downs		15	20	15
Passing Downs		46	33	58

Q1 Rk	42	1st Down Rk	19
Q2 Rk	46	2nd Down Rk	17
Q3 Rk	41	3rd Down Rk	59
Q4 Rk	7

7. A lot to replace

One day, Utah State was suddenly awesome at defense. After ranking 112th and 90th in Def. S&P+ in Andersen's first two seasons, the Aggies surged to 12th in 2012. And despite the loss of Andersen and stud coordinator Dave Aranda (now LSU's DC), they improved to a stunning fifth in 2013. They lost a ton of contributors but fell to only 32nd in 2014, and despite losing Todd Orlando, they improved to 26th in 2015.

It seems this team is destined to be stout on D no matter who's on the field or in the booth. But that theory will get tested in 2016. First, every coordinator changes offers the opportunity of a bad hire or bad move. And then there's the matter of the massive turnover in the front seven.

Wells elected to go the co-coordinator route on defense as well. He promoted cornerbacks coach and passing game coordinator Kendrick Shaver to co-coordinator, then brought Frank Maile back to Logan. Maile was USU's defensive line coach during the 2012-13 breakthrough and spent the last two seasons as Vanderbilt's defensive line coach.

The guys in charge know what it takes to play well at USU. But they'll still need the pieces to do it, and as with 2014, the Aggies face a lot of turnover on the two-deep. Gone are three of last year's top four linemen (including disruptive nose tackle David Moala) and all four primary linebackers. USU's starting LB foursome combined for 42.5 tackles for loss last year; that's a lot to replace, and three of the top six backups are also gone. Yikes.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	111	2.69	2.68	32.8%	66.1%	20.3%	139.8	5.4%	10.6%
Rank	29	36	18	10	68	59	12	54	17

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jordan Nielsen	DE					13	39.5	5.7%	5.5	3.0	0	1	0	0
David Moala	NG					11	38.0	5.5%	12.5	4.5	0	2	2	0
Travis Seefeldt (2014)	NG	6'2, 300	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7000	14	24.0	3.0%	6.0	2.0	0	2	0	0
Ricky Ali'ifua	DE	6'2, 285	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7333	12	18.0	2.6%	4.0	3.0	0	0	1	0
John Taylor	DE					13	12.0	1.7%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Siua Taufa	DE	6'1, 280	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7000	13	10.5	1.5%	1.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Edmund Faimalo	DE	6'2, 280	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7900	12	9.0	1.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Ian Togiai	DE	6'3, 255	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8100	13	7.5	1.1%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Gasetoto Schuster	NG	6'0, 280	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7885	10	3.5	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Troy Murray	DE	6'5, 220	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7793
Caden Andersen	NG	6'3, 280	Fr.	NR	NR

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Nick Vigil	ILB					13	106.0	15.4%	13.5	3.0	0	2	1	0
Kyler Fackrell	OLB					13	59.5	8.6%	15.0	4.0	0	0	2	1
LT Filiaga	ILB					13	51.0	7.4%	2.5	0.0	0	1	1	0
Torrey Green	OLB					13	36.0	5.2%	11.5	4.0	1	1	0	0
Chasen Andersen	LB	5'11, 220	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7960	13	10.0	1.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Brock Carmen	ILB	6'3, 230	Sr.	NR	NR	13	9.0	1.3%	0.0	0.0	1	0	0	0
Michael Okonkwo	OLB					13	5.5	0.8%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jarom Baldomero	ILB					13	3.5	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Alex Huerta	OLB	6'2, 230	Jr.	NR	NR	12	3.5	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
La'Bradford Harold	ILB					6	2.5	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Anthony Williams	LB	6'2, 230	Sr.	NR	NR
Leki Uasike	LB	5'11, 230	Sr.	NR	NR
Europa Mataia	LB	6'0, 240	Sr.	NR	NR
Chase Christiansen	LB	6'1, 230	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000
Joe Riggins	LB	6'2, 210	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8117
Mason Tobeck	LB	6'3, 225	RSFr.	2 stars	0.7633
Kevin Meitzenheimer	LB	6'1, 220	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8315

8. So much to replace

The return of nose guard Travis Seefeldt, who missed 2015 after a bad car accident, will alleviate the effects of the turnover up front. Between Seefeldt and fellow senior Ricky Ali'fua, the Aggies have at least a couple of semi-proven pieces. And senior end Siua Taufa made a couple of plays when given the opportunity.

The real concern here is behind the line. Utah State has had a disruptive linebacking corps for the entirety of this run, and last year's was particularly strong.

Of the 10 linebackers who made any contribution whatsoever, only three are back, and sophomore Chasen Andersen (Gary's son) is the only one who hit even 10 tackles. There are seniors who have been waiting their turn (Brock Carmen, Anthony Williams, Leki Uasike, Europa Mataia), along with some well-regarded youngsters (Joe Riggins, incoming three-star Kevin Meitzenheimer). Wells felt solid enough that he didn't sign JUCO replacements.

Still, last year's production was immense. There almost has to be a drop-off.

There is one saving grace. USU returns some strong field position components in kicker Jake Thompson, punter Aaron Dalton, and two strong return men (Kennedy Williams, Andrew Rodriguez). So opponents will likely have to drive a long way to score, at least.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Marwin Evans	SS					13	53.0	7.7%	10	2	1	5	2	0
Jalen Davis	CB	5'10, 175	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7000	13	41.5	6.0%	3	1	3	8	1	0
Devin Centers	FS	5'9, 200	Sr.	NR	NR	13	37.5	5.4%	0	0	3	2	0	0
Dallin Leavitt (BYU)	SS	5'11, 200	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8121	11	37.0	4.7%	3.5	1.5	0	1	0	0
Deshane Hines	CB					12	29.5	4.3%	0	0	0	6	1	0
Tyler Floyd	FS					13	29.0	4.2%	2.5	1	0	3	0	1
Jontrell Rocquemore	SS	6'1, 200	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7683	13	21.5	3.1%	2	0	0	1	1	1
Bryant Hayes	CB					9	15.0	2.2%	1	1	0	1	0	0
Daniel Gray	CB	5'11, 180	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8292	12	10.5	1.5%	0.5	0	0	1	0	0
Jentz Painter	CB	5'8, 175	Sr.	NR	NR	13	9.0	1.3%	0.5	0.5	1	1	0	0
Aaron Wade	SS	6'1, 200	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7593	13	3.0	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Marquan Ellison	CB	5'11, 190	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7500
Wesley Bailey	CB	6'2, 190	Jr.	NR	0.8367
Cameron Haney	CB	5'11, 180	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8425
Antonio Cole	CB	6'1, 175	So.	2 stars (5.4)	NR
Makiah Gilmer	CB	6'1, 180	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8115
Zach Swenson	S	6'1, 185	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)	NR

9. Not quite as many worries in the back

If there's a saving grace, it's that the secondary is in decent shape. USU must replace two starters in wrecking ball Marwin Evans and corner Deshane Hines. But BYU transfer Dallin Leavitt should ease the loss of Evans, and a few others got decent experience: sophomore safeties Jontrell Rocquemore and Aaron Wade, senior corners Daniel Gray and Jentz Painter in particular, etc. JUCO Antonio Cole enters the mix and has earned rave reviews in spring ball.

Plus, the secondary isn't a blank slate. Corner Jalen Davis combined three tackles for loss with 11 passes defensed, and Devin Centers has 6.5 tackles for loss, three sacks, four picks, and 12 breakups over the last two years. If the front seven does its job (and that's a much bigger "if" than normal), the secondary should hold up.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Aaron Dalton	6'4, 220	So.	72	41.3	3	29	26	76.4%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Jake Thompson	6'0, 215	Sr.	67	63.4	38	2	56.7%
Brock Warren	6'2, 180	Sr.	4	56.3	1	0	25.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Brock Warren	6'2, 180	Sr.	39-42	6-8	75.0%	2-3	66.7%
Jake Thompson	6'0, 215	Sr.	7-7	0-2	0.0%	3-4	75.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Kennedy Williams	KR	5'8, 160	Sr.	12	30.6	0
Hunter Sharp	KR			7	35.4	1
Andrew Rodriguez	PR	5'10, 185	Sr.	26	9.9	1
Hunter Sharp	PR			10	6.4	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	91
Field Goal Efficiency	109
Punt Return Success Rate	10
Kick Return Success Rate	75
Punt Success Rate	51
Kickoff Success Rate	43

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
1-Sep	Weber State	NR	25.8	93%
10-Sep	at USC	8	-20.0	12%
17-Sep	Arkansas State	89	7.8	67%
24-Sep	Air Force	80	4.8	61%
1-Oct	at Boise State	36	-11.1	26%
8-Oct	at Colorado State	96	3.6	58%
22-Oct	Fresno State	94	9.2	70%
29-Oct	San Diego State	55	0.2	51%
5-Nov	at Wyoming	110	8.8	69%
12-Nov	New Mexico	102	12.6	77%
19-Nov	at Nevada	91	1.5	53%
26-Nov	at BYU	35	-11.2	26%
Projected wins: 6.6

Five-Year F/+ Rk	15.1% (38)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	104 / 107
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	-3 / -5.7
2015 TO Luck/Game	+1.0
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	49% (57%, 41%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	6.8 (-0.8)

10. The soft schedule will help

This might not be your typical Utah State. This could be the Aggies' best offense since 2012 and their worst defense since 2011.

Though the receiving corps is a concern, Myers is a potentially awesome quarterback with a nice running back and an experienced offensive line.

But while you don't get very far doubting the Utah State defense, it's hard not to be concerned about the front seven. The coaching will be sound, and there are plenty of seniors on the two-deep, but the disruption lost will be nearly impossible for new starters to replace.

USU is projected a conservative 73rd. That means a bowl isn't a guarantee (especially with road trips to USC, Boise State, BYU, and Colorado State), but with seven opponents projected 89th or worse and a win probability of at least 51 percent in nine games, the odds are solid.

So consider this a regrouping year. Figure out what Myers can do, expect him to raise the bar as a senior, arrange a new linebacking corps, and hopefully wreak havoc in 2017 after a fifth straight bowl appearance in 2016.