San Diego State football has a chance to establish itself as a mid-major power

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1. Life ater the breakthrough

If SDSU is ever going to break the nine-win barrier, it will be this year. The Aztecs return plenty of fun pieces in 2016, but the conference schedule will flip and feature testy road games. This is an incredible opportunity for SDSU to break through.

-- The 2015 San Diego State guide

During a disappointing 7-6 in 2014, an increasingly talented SDSU continued to struggle on offense and ranked just 83rd overall in S&P+. Rocky Long was at a bit of a crossroads, toeing the border of Glen Mason territory, the zone of a coach's tenure in which the guy who has raised the bar fails to raise it further. Long knows this well -- during his tenure at New Mexico, Long engineered bowl trips in five of six seasons between 2002-07, but he only once topped eight wins.

At San Diego State, the Aztecs were quickly hitting a similar ceiling. After bowling only three times between 1970 and 2009, SDSU took a step forward in 2010, Brady Hoke's second season. Hoke left for Michigan, and Long won eight, nine, and eight games heading into 2014.

Last year was big for Long. He boasted a team that was, at worst, the second most talented in the Mountain West, and the schedule was kind.

Damned if SDSU didn't break through. After a dreadful September, things clicked. The Aztecs beat eight MWC opponents by an average of 36-11, held off Air Force in the conference title game, then destroyed Cincinnati in Hawaii to finish 11-3. The next time SDSU loses will be the first since September 26 of last year.

This was the breakthrough we always thought this program was capable of. Long's always-tricky defense was strong from front to back. The offense wasn't great but was just good enough to kill clock and get out of the way. And now the best part of the offense (running back Donnel Pumphrey) returns along with most of an awesome linebacking corps and secondary. So ... is a repeat possible? What about improvement?

There are questions to answer, mostly centered around a rebuilt passing game. But at 66, having built sustainable success at two programs that hadn't experienced much of it, Long's career might be approaching a new level as it winds down.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 11-3 | Adj. Record: 10-4 | Final F/+ Rk: 43 | Final S&P+ Rk: 45
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
5-Sep	San Diego	N/A	37-3	W	66%	100%	+14.9
12-Sep	at California	29	7-35	L	10%	1%	-20.4	-14.5
19-Sep	South Alabama	102	27-34	L	19%	31%	-21.8	-24.5
26-Sep	at Penn State	47	21-37	L	9%	1%	+1.9	-1.0
3-Oct	Fresno State	103	21-7	W	73%	99%	+8.1	+5.0
10-Oct	at Hawaii	120	28-14	W	64%	98%	+14.0	+17.0
17-Oct	at San Jose State	89	30-7	W	96%	100%	+30.4	+26.0
23-Oct	Utah State	53	48-14	W	89%	100%	+37.7	+39.0
31-Oct	at Colorado State	86	41-17	W	63%	84%	+20.8	+20.5
14-Nov	Wyoming	115	38-3	W	87%	100%	+11.7	+10.5
21-Nov	at UNLV	105	52-14	W	94%	100%	+26.3	+22.0
28-Nov	Nevada	97	31-14	W	80%	99%	-1.9	0.0
5-Dec	Air Force	63	27-24	W	45%	48%	-0.2	-1.5
24-Dec	vs. Cincinnati	72	42-7	W	80%	99%	+29.0	+34.0

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	28.8	68	21.5	25
Points Per Game	32.1	46	16.4	7

2. The proverbial switch got flipped

SDSU was a strange team to follow from afar in 2015. The Aztecs got romped by a Cal team that peaked in September, lost to what would eventually prove to be a bad South Alabama team at home, and put up minimal defensive resistance against a mediocre Penn State offense. At 1-3, it looked like the verdict was in: 2014's disappointment was carrying over to 2015.

But when the calendar flipped to October, the lightbulb turned on.

• Average Percentile Performance (first 4 games): 26% (~top 95) | record: 1-3
• Average Percentile Performance (last 10 games): 77% (~top 30) | record: 10-0

SDSU handled Fresno State and Hawaii with relative ease, then mauled San Jose State. None of these results were standout wins, however.

Then the Aztecs beat Utah State and Colorado State by a combined 89-31. They cruised past Wyoming and UNLV, then whipped Nevada in the regular season finale. Written off in September, they beat eight conference opponents by an average of 25 points in October and November. They struggled to put a strong Air Force team away in the MWC title game but did so with Donny Hageman's 46-yard field goal and a late midfield stop. And then they did some brutal things to Cincinnati in the bowl.

Looking at the passing splits, you'd think that SDSU changed quarterbacks. But that wasn't really the case. With Maxwell Smith throwing the lion's share of the passes, the Aztecs managed a woeful 95.6 passer rating in the first four games. (Yes, that included an 83.8 against a good Penn State defense; it also included a 73.3 against San Diego.)

But with Smith still leading the way for the most part, SDSU produced a 179.3 rating over the final 10 games. This was almost all Smith until he got hurt against Nevada; redshirt freshman Christian Chapman took over did as well or better. Against Nevada, Air Force, and Cincinnati, he completed 23 of 34 passes for 360 yards, two touchdowns, and no picks. In fact, neither QB threw a pick after the Penn State game.

This was a full-team improvement, mind you -- the defense went from allowing 5.7 yards per play in the first four games to 4.2 in the last 10. But the improvement of the sparingly used passing game opened things up for Pumphrey and the run game and gave the Aztecs enough oomph to give the defense all the points it needed. SDSU only once scored less than 27 points in the last 10 games and only once allowed more than 17. That's a pretty good recipe.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.26	67	IsoPPP+	97.6	80
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	42.9%	50	Succ. Rt. +	96.8	84
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	27.2	15	Def. FP+	29.7	67
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	5.1	18	Redzone S&P+	102.6	67
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	15.4		ACTUAL	12	-3.4

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	85	81	84	80
RUSHING	14	89	80	90
PASSING	119	64	97	50
Standard Downs		90	87	90
Passing Downs		61	88	51

Q1 Rk	52	1st Down Rk	93
Q2 Rk	95	2nd Down Rk	91
Q3 Rk	104	3rd Down Rk	91
Q4 Rk	75

3. The power of identity

It's difficult to glean much from full-season numbers for SDSU when it was like a completely different team filled the uniforms one-third of the way through the regular season. Regardless of the mediocre 2015 numbers, though, SDSU seemed to benefit from knowing exactly what it was on offense.

With running backs coach Jeff Horton taking on offensive coordinator duties in 2015, SDSU took on the exact kind of plodding, bludgeoning attack that a defensive coach like Rocky Long tends to love. The Aztecs ran almost as frequently as an option team -- in fact, their 81 percent standard downs run rate was seventh in FBS, behind only six option teams (Army, Navy, Georgia Southern, New Mexico, and Georgia Tech) -- and did just well enough at it to put themselves into third-and-manageable.

Donnel Pumphrey and Chase Price combined for 35.6 carries and 190.1 yards per game, but players like Rashaad Penny and Marcus Stamps managed to get some looks as well. For predictability's sake, the Aztecs could have perhaps benefited from a bit more mobility at the QB position (Smith and Chapman combined for just 28 non-sack carries all season), but this approach worked pretty well after September.

It worked doubly well when the play action game actually began to pay off. Chapman ended up averaging 15 yards per completion and 8.3 yards per pass attempt, and while Smith took quite a few hits, Chapman really didn't. He proved more mobile than Smith in the run game and managed to take far fewer sacks as well.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2016 Year

Rivals

247 Comp.

Comp

Att

Yards

TD

INT

Comp Rate

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/ Att.

Maxwell Smith

110

200

1529

13

2

55.0%

18

8.3%

6.5

Christian Chapman

6'0, 200

So.

3 stars (5.5)

0.8167

29

49

436

2

1

59.2%

2

3.9%

8.3

Ryan Agnew

6'0, 175

RSFr.

3 stars (5.5)

0.8184

Mason Hall

6'3, 195

RSFr.

2 stars (5.4)

NR

Jimmy Walker

6'3, 220

Jr.

2 stars (5.3)

NR

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Donnel Pumphrey	RB	5'9, 180	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8044	309	1653	17	5.3	6.7	36.2%	3	2
Chase Price	RB					190	1008	6	5.3	4.3	41.6%	2	1
Rashaad Penny	RB	5'11, 210	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8432	61	368	4	6.0	5.5	44.3%	0	0
Dakota Gordon	FB					37	187	3	5.1	8.7	24.3%	1	0
Marcus Stamps	RB	6'1, 215	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8448	16	33	0	2.1	1.5	18.8%	0	0
Christian Chapman	QB	6'0, 200	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8167	14	83	0	5.9	1.9	71.4%	0	0
Maxwell Smith	QB					14	58	2	4.1	5.6	28.6%	4	1
Juwan Washington	RB	5'7, 175	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8286
Chase Jasmin	RB	5'11, 185	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8389
Parie Dedaux Jr.	RB	6'1, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8156

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Mikah Holder	WR-X	6'0, 180	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8538	49	24	439	49.0%	20.2%	9.0	38.8%	40.8%	2.06
Donnel Pumphrey	RB	5'9, 180	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8044	49	28	416	57.1%	20.2%	8.5	26.5%	42.9%	1.89
Jemond Hazely	WR-Z					31	21	263	67.7%	12.8%	8.5	48.4%	51.6%	1.49
Eric Judge	WR-X	6'1, 195	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8148	29	15	296	51.7%	11.9%	10.2	44.8%	44.8%	1.91
Daniel Brunskill	TE	6'5, 250	Sr.	NR	NR	19	10	112	52.6%	7.8%	5.9	68.4%	47.4%	1.18
Dakota Gordon	FB					16	12	167	75.0%	6.6%	10.4	75.0%	68.8%	1.43
Chase Price	RB					15	13	118	86.7%	6.2%	7.9	13.3%	46.7%	1.47
Chase Favreau	WR-Z	6'1, 200	Jr.	NR	0.7000	10	2	16	20.0%	4.1%	1.6	20.0%	10.0%	1.45
Rashaad Penny	RB	5'11, 210	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8432	9	8	120	88.9%	3.7%	13.3	77.8%	66.7%	1.96
David Wells	TE	6'5, 255	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7793	9	4	22	44.4%	3.7%	2.4	55.6%	22.2%	0.98
Christian Cumberlander	WR-X	6'3, 205	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8400	4	1	0	25.0%	1.6%	0.0	50.0%	0.0%	0.00
Maxwell Smith	QB					1	1	7	100.0%	0.4%	7.0	100.0%	100.0%	0.88
Curtis Anderson III	WR-Z	6'3, 200	Sr.	NR	NR	1	1	6	100.0%	0.4%	6.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.00
Lloyd Mills	WR-Z	5'10, 175	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8091	1	1	6	100.0%	0.4%	6.0	0.0%	100.0%	0.45
Jerry Chaney	WR	6'0, 180	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7817
Tayler Hawkins	WR	6'1, 185	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8410
Parker Houston	TE	6'3, 240	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8115
Timothy Wilson Jr.	WR	6'4, 190	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8066

4. In search of ever-elusive pass efficiency

That Pumphrey, Penny, Stamps, and three offensive line starters (including all-conference guard Nico Siragusa) return is obviously good news considering SDSU's run-heavy identity. Plus, Long signed two JUCO linemen and two three-star running backs (in addition to three-star redshirt freshman Juwan Washington); the run game could be even deeper than it was last year.

But the passing game is a little bit muddy. Chapman could be quite good, SDSU's best quarterback since Ryan Lindley at the very least. But a lot of receivers took turns serving as the go-to guy in 2015, and quite a few of them are gone. Four players (three wideouts and Pumphrey) were targeted between 29 and 49 times, and six more were between nine and 19.

Mikah Holder was the leader, but he made nearly half of his catches in the first four games and only once caught more than two passes in a game during SDSU's winning streak. Jemond Hazely was perhaps the go-to during the streak (he had zero catches through five games and 21 in the final nine), but he was a senior.

Maybe San Diego State doesn't need a go-to guy. But Hazely was the only of the top five targets with a success rate above 47 percent, and that added bit of efficiency seemed to make a difference. Can Holder or Eric Judge become more reliable options? Might big former three-star signee Christian Cumberlander be ready for a breakthrough? A tight end like Daniel Brunskill or David Wells? Star freshman Tayler Hawkins (who could end up on either or both sides of the ball)?

Depth in the passing game is clearly an issue, but if you're going to have questions like this, it might as well be with the part of the offense you don't use very much. The run game should be ready to roll, and that's what's important.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	96.3	3.06	3.26	38.2%	67.1%	17.1%	76.6	10.0%	6.2%
Rank	89	38	65	78	57	27	103	124	43

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Nico Siragusa	LG	6'5, 335	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8428	14	28	2015 1st All-MWC
Pearce Slater	RT					14	27	2015 1st All-MWC
Darrell Greene	RG					8	33
Kwayde Miller	LT	6'7, 310	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8394	14	14
Arthur Flores	C	6'5, 305	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8352	14	14
Robert Craighead	LG					6	9
David Servatius	LT	6'5, 350	Sr.	NR	NR	0	0
Ryan Krum	OL	6'4, 320	Sr.	NR	0.7000	0	0
Ryan Pope	LT	6'7, 320	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7000	0	0
Joe Salcedo	RT	6'7, 300	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7333	0	0
Daishawn Dixon	OL	6'5, 340	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7652
Nick Gerhard	RT	6'5, 285	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7533
Derrick Achayo	OL	6'4, 285	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8116
Donnell Greene	OL	6'6, 340	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7933
Yasir Durant	OL	6'7, 345	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8220
Douglas Tucker II	OL	6'5, 300	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8181

5. Biiiiiiig boys up front

I probably shouldn't overlook the fact that those responsible for 28 of SDSU's 70 offensive line starts in 2015 are gone. Tackle Pearce Slater played at an all-conference level, and there's no guarantee the Aztecs can maintain last year's levels.

But at the very least, they'll be big. Holy smokes, will they be big. The 13 linemen listed above average 6'6, 318, and that includes two freshman signees and two 285-pounders who haven't seen the field before. This line isn't big by Mountain West or power conference standards; it's big by NFL standards. Last year's San Diego CHARGERS averaged 6'5, 319 up front.

Size isn't everything, obviously, but at the very least, it means defenders have to run around larger bodies of mass to get into the backfield. The line wasn't incredibly efficient in 2015, but it very much kept defenders from making run stops behind the line. That should be the case again.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.26	69	IsoPPP+	115.4	22
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	34.6%	11	Succ. Rt. +	115.1	19
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	33.2	8	Off. FP+	30.2	60
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.1	40	Redzone S&P+	113.6	24
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	27.4		ACTUAL	34.0	+6.6

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	5	17	19	22
RUSHING	7	5	12	8
PASSING	10	38	35	47
Standard Downs		37	33	42
Passing Downs		5	7	9

Q1 Rk	30	1st Down Rk	15
Q2 Rk	32	2nd Down Rk	53
Q3 Rk	28	3rd Down Rk	20
Q4 Rk	6

6. The perfectly realized 3-3-5

A 3-3-5 sacrifices size for speed and deception, swarms on passing downs, and more or less just hopes to survive against the run. Rocky Long's 3-3-5 pulled off a remarkable combination: fifth in Passing Downs S&P+ ... and fifth in Rushing S&P+. The Aztecs generated all the pass rush you would hope for from this alignment but stopped the run as well as almost anybody. They struggled against Air Force, but they almost completely erased big rushing plays -- opponents managed just 38 rushes of 10-plus yards (fourth in FBS) and nine of 20-plus (sixth).

SDSU maybe allowed a few more big pass plays than it would have preferred, but this defense was Long's masterpiece (after September, at least), and he's had a lot of good defenses.

The best part: The defense was pretty young. The Aztecs do have to replace two of their top three defensive linemen, but the second stringers got plenty of reps, and all of them return. And if the line doesn't regress, then the linebacking corps (which returns five of its top six) and secondary (which returns four starters and four second stringers) should again dominate. SDSU broke through in a major way last year and returns most of the defensive reasons why.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	120.2	2.32	2.75	33.1%	54.9%	23.9%	124.8	4.6%	12.0%
Rank	7	9	25	12	14	16	29	80	7

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Alex Barrett	DT	6'3, 260	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7500	14	47.5	6.7%	13.0	5.5	2	1	2	0
Jon Sanchez	DE					14	29.0	4.1%	8.0	5.5	0	1	0	1
Christian Heyward	DT					10	22.0	3.1%	5.5	2.0	0	1	1	0
Kyle Kelley	DE	6'3, 260	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8741	14	19.5	2.8%	9.0	7.5	0	1	1	0
Noble Hall	DT	6'3, 265	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8163	11	14.0	2.0%	6.0	0.5	0	1	1	0
Dakota Turner	DE	6'3, 255	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8149	6	10.5	1.5%	4.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jordan Watson	DE	6'5, 285	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8181	7	5.0	0.7%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Julian Rochelin	DE	6'5, 245	So.	NR	NR	13	2.0	0.3%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Sam Tai (UCLA)	DT	6'3, 280	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8281
Sergio Phillips	DT	6'2, 300	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8280
Myles Cheatum	DE	6'2, 250	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7685
Jondarius Gardner	DT	6'4, 285	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7600
Chibu Onyeukwu	DE	6'4, 240	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7000

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Calvin Munson	LB	6'1, 240	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7444	14	71.5	10.1%	15.0	9.5	2	2	2	1
Jake Fely	LB					12	57.5	8.1%	8.5	1.5	0	1	3	1
Ryan Dunn	MLB	6'3, 235	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8307	13	28.5	4.0%	4.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Randy Ricks	MLB	6'5, 230	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8133	9	15.0	2.1%	5.0	2.5	0	4	2	0
Austin Wyatt-Thayer	LB	6'5, 230	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7633	12	10.0	1.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Ronley Lakalaka	LB	6'0, 225	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8081	11	8.0	1.1%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jay Henderson	MLB	6'2, 220	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8174	9	2.5	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Tyler Morris	LB	6'3, 215	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8175	14	2.5	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kyahva Tezino	LB	6'0, 225	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9024
John Carroll	LB	6'2, 225	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8517
Dwayne Parchment	WAR	5'11, 190	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8226
Reggie Murphy	LB	6'5, 250	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8173
Jeff Clay	WAR	6'0, 180	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7859
Dru Mathis	LB	6'3, 205	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8326
Troy Cassidy	LB	6'3, 210	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8235
Kaelin Himphill	LB	6'2, 225	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	NR

7. Too many linebackers, too little playing time

The departure of Jake Fely opens up a little bit of playing time, and wow, does SDSU appear to be loaded with options for filling that space. First, the Aztecs return Calvin Munson, one of the better blitzers in the Mountain West. They also bring back both of last year's primary middle linebackers. But who takes Fely's reps? Senior Austin Wyatt-Thayer? Three-star junior Tyler Morris? Three-star sophomore Ronley Lakalaka? Four-star redshirt freshman Kyahva Tezino? Three-star redshirt freshman John Carroll?

You get the idea. Never mind the MWC, this might be one of the best linebacking corps in the country. Pursuit should be fantastic. But there are indeed still some questions to answer up front. Speedy tackle Alex Barrett is back, and former four-star signee Kyle Kelley had a nice junior season, but the loss of end Jon Sanchez and tackle Christian Heyward still hurts.

Honestly, what SDSU might have going for it the most is injury. Heyward missed foru games, sophomore Noble Hall missed three, and juniors Dakota Turner and Jordan Watson missed a combined 15. That means quite a few players got reps. So the Aztecs are, in a way, losing two starters and returning two or three.

Hall, Turnver, and sophomore Julian Rochelin could all be ready for larger roles, and Long signed two JUCOs (Jondarius Gardner and Chibu Onyeukwu) and brought in UCLA transfer Sam Tai for depth. The odds are good that the line will hold up, and if that happens, the linebackers will dominate.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Damontae Kazee	CB	5'11, 185	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7900	14	66.5	9.4%	5.5	0	8	7	2	0
Na'im McGee	AZTEC	6'0, 200	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8122	14	63.0	8.9%	4.5	1	0	7	0	0
Malik Smith	WAR	6'0, 190	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7900	14	60.5	8.6%	5	0	5	9	1	1
Kameron Kelly	WAR	6'2, 195	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7907	13	47.5	6.7%	3	0	2	3	0	0
J.J. Whittaker	CB					14	40.0	5.7%	0.5	0	3	8	0	0
Pierre Romain	CB					14	13.5	1.9%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Parker Baldwin	AZTEC	6'2, 200	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7794	14	11.0	1.6%	0	0	1	0	1	0
Billy Vaughn, Jr.	CB	6'3, 255	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8098	8	10.5	1.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Trey Lomax	WAR	5'11, 190	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8108	5	7.5	1.1%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Kalan Montgomery	CB	6'1, 185	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8235	14	7.5	1.1%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Kendrick Mathis	WAR	6'0, 195	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8255	14	7.0	1.0%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Kevin Walcott	CB	5'11, 185	Jr.	NR	NR	8	6.5	0.9%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Derek Babiash	WAR	6'1, 185	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8838	7	2.5	0.4%	0	0	0	3	0	0
Tayler Hawkins	DB	6'1, 185	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8410
Trenton Thompson	DB	6'12, 185	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8381
Dwayne Johnson Jr.	DB	6'2, 190	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8217
Kyree Woods	DB	6'0, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8100
Keoni Stallworth	DB	6'1, 190	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8081

8. A corner void?

At first glance, SDSU's secondary appears loaded as well. Last year's top four tacklers return, as do 10 of the 12 players who recorded at least six tackles. Experience in the secondary matters a lot, and the Aztecs have it.

They do have to replace two of their top three corners, though. Damontae Kazee is incredible, but J.J. Whittaker is gone, and Pierre Romain was the top backup. Juniors Billy Vaughn Jr., Kalan Montgomery, and Kevin Walcott are all back, and we could always see one of about 17 awesome safeties changing positions, but there's at least a little bit of a question there.

Forgive me if I can't worry too much, though. Kazee is as good a No. 1 CB as there is in the group of five, and safeties Na'im McGee, Malik Smith, and Kameron Kelly combined for 12.5 tackels for loss, seven interceptions, and 19 break-ups last year. And I want to see more of junior Derek Babiash, a former star recruit who managed to break up three passes while making just 2.5 tackles in seven games. That's a combination that screams either "future ball hawk!", "risk taker!" or "horrific tackler!" All three are pretty entertaining.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Tanner Blain	6'0, 205	Sr.	77	40.3	8	24	22	59.7%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Donny Hageman			86	62.9	24	4	27.9%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Donny Hageman			57-57	12-14	85.7%	5-8	62.5%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Rashaad Penny	KR	5'11, 210	Jr.	24	33.5	3
Chase Price	KR			10	18.4	0
Lloyd Mills	PR	5'10, 175	Sr.	15	9.5	0
Mikah Holder	PR	6'0, 180	Jr.	6	7.5	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	64
Field Goal Efficiency	44
Punt Return Success Rate	111
Kick Return Success Rate	5
Punt Success Rate	108
Kickoff Success Rate	101

9. And when you score on them, they might score right back

There's nothing more demoralizing than finally scoring on a tough defense, then watching your ensuing kickoff get returned for a touchdown. And in Rashaad Penny, SDSU returns one of the most impressive, explosive kick returners in the country.

That's ... about all SDSU returns here, though. The Aztecs ranked in the triple digits in punt, kickoff, and punt return efficiency, and solid place-kicker Donny Hageman is gone. Despite Penny, I'd be impressed if SDSU cracked the top 60 in Special Teams S&P+.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
3-Sep	New Hampshire	NR	29.1	95%
10-Sep	California	49	2.7	56%
17-Sep	at Northern Illinois	79	0.7	52%
1-Oct	at South Alabama	115	13.3	78%
8-Oct	UNLV	114	20.1	88%
15-Oct	at Fresno State	94	5.5	62%
22-Oct	San Jose State	92	12.3	76%
29-Oct	at Utah State	73	-0.2	49%
5-Nov	Hawaii	118	20.9	89%
12-Nov	at Nevada	91	4.7	61%
19-Nov	at Wyoming	110	12.0	76%
26-Nov	Colorado State	96	13.8	79%
Projected wins: 8.6

Five-Year F/+ Rk	1.0% (57)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	79 / 74
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	22 / 12.0
2015 TO Luck/Game	+3.9
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	66% (52%, 79%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	10.6 (0.4)

10. The schedule cooperates again ... sort of

There are two ways to look at SDSU's schedule:

A. The Aztecs are projected to have at least a 49 percent chance of winning in every single game.

B. They are between 49 and 62 percent in five games.

The former makes you think San Diego State's about to go 11-1. The latter introduces 8-4.

Everything came together for Long's Aztecs last year. The defense caught fire, the offense was just good enough, and even turnovers luck was favorable. (I would have noted that before now had they played in more than two close games.) The timing was right.

SDSU's success in 2016 -- the Aztecs' ability to hover again in the range of double-digit wins -- will depend on stability on the defensive line and the emergence of an efficient receiver or two. They have the depth to outlast most MWC opponents, and while having two trips east of the Mississippi River is inconvenient, the Aztecs should at least be superior to NIU and South Alabama.