I was wrong about Boise State last year. Can a more experienced team hit the BSU standard?

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1. Swing and a miss

In this preview series, I frequently quote my previous year's pieces as a means of table-setting. The quotes frequently serve as a reminder of things I got right. But that's definitely not always the case.

From my 2015 Boise State preview:

Yes, there are questions to answer at quarterback and running back. Yes, Boise State is a couple of linebacker injuries away from dipping into a pool of freshmen. Yes, offensive coordinator Mike Sanford got plucked away by Notre Dame.

But no other mid-major can come close to matching Boise State's depth and potential, especially on defense.

A crazy-young team got better on both sides and returns most of the reasons. Boise State probably isn't going to be 2010-good, but I'll be surprised if the Broncos aren't a top-15 team. Either the Boise era continues, or a new one just began.

To put it lightly, I was pretty high on Boise State. A defense that ranked 38th in Def. S&P+ in 2014 returned a ton of exciting talent, and even if the offense stumbled after ranking 13th in Off. S&P+, the fall probably wouldn't be too steep.

Boise State played at a good-to-great level in eight of its last nine games that year and returned most of the reasons why. Combine that with the Broncos' excellent history and recruiting far superior to the rest of the conference's, and you had a slam dunk. BSU was easily going to be the best team in the MWC and had a decent shot at going 14-0.

Not so much. The Broncos lost via Hail Mary to BYU in Week 2, then lost quarterback Ryan Finley in Week 3. With a blue-chip freshman at quarterback and a few injuries in the secondary, they were volatile. They were capable of posting high scores (56 against Virginia, 55 against NIU, 55 against UNLV) and imploding (12 combined turnovers against Utah State and New Mexico). On defense, they held Colorado State and NIU to 17 total points and 1.7 yards per play but allowed 30 points per game and 7.3 yards per play in the final four games of the regular season.

The upside was obvious, but the downside was deadly. Boise State still went 9-4 and ranked 41st in S&P+. The latter was the best rating in the conference -- conference champion SDSU ranked 45th, Utah State was 46th, and Air Force was 52nd -- but three conference losses kept the Broncos out of the title game.

Despite the decent ranking, this clearly wasn't what I expected.

I hate making the same mistake twice. When I'm immensely wrong, I try to figure out why. So throughout this preview, I'll be calling on last year's to see where I was right and where I was not.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 9-4 | Adj. Record: 9-4 | Final F/+ Rk: 37 | Final S&P+ Rk: 41
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
4-Sep	Washington	13	16-13	W	71%	84%	-10.5	-9.0
12-Sep	at BYU	35	24-35	L	41%	35%	-15.6	-14.0
18-Sep	Idaho State	N/A	52-0	W	82%	100%	+6.2
25-Sep	at Virginia	78	56-14	W	72%	98%	+34.2	+39.0
3-Oct	Hawaii	120	55-0	W	98%	100%	+36.1	+30.5
10-Oct	at Colorado State	86	41-10	W	95%	100%	+20.8	+15.5
16-Oct	at Utah State	53	26-52	L	4%	0%	-31.0	-35.5
24-Oct	Wyoming	115	34-14	W	63%	97%	-8.2	-15.0
31-Oct	at UNLV	105	55-27	W	67%	97%	+10.5	+8.0
14-Nov	New Mexico	99	24-31	L	19%	14%	-32.5	-37.0
20-Nov	Air Force	63	30-37	L	14%	2%	-10.4	-19.0
27-Nov	at San Jose State	89	40-23	W	66%	91%	+10.1	+9.5
23-Dec	vs. Northern Illinois	66	55-7	W	99%	100%	+46.4	+39.5

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	30.9	52	23.2	33
Points Per Game	39.1	15	20.2	18

2. Three duds

BSU's chances of going undefeated will likely come down to two trips to Utah. They visit BYU in a Week 2 matchup I can't wait to see, then they face Utah State. Lose that one, and it's possible the Broncos don't even win the MWC Mountain at 11-1. USU is strong enough to do the deed, but BSU will still be a solid favorite, as it will be in every game this year.

Indeed, BSU was favored to win every game. And the Broncos frequently backed up Vegas' faith. They beat Virginia, Hawaii, and NIU each by over 30 points more than expected, and they did more than enough to beat the spread against Colorado State, UNLV, and San Jose State. Plus, the closer-than-expected win over Washington was more on the Huskies -- UW turned out far better than anyone thought.

Most of the time, Boise State looked like it was supposed to. But when they laid an egg, it was the size of an ostrich egg. They committed eight turnovers in a 26-point loss at Utah State. They committed four more in a home loss to New Mexico. They had no hope of stopping Air Force's offense.

When Boise State undershot against the spread, they typically missed by at least two touchdowns.

• Average Percentile Performance (vs. USU, UNM, and Air Force): 12% (~top 115)
• Average Percentile Performance (other 10 games): 75% (~top 30)

Boise State was a high-tempo team with a freshman quarterback and a defense that allowed a few too many big plays. That made the Broncos insanely volatile. Does experience alleviate the volatility?

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.29	51	IsoPPP+	102.2	59
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	44.5%	31	Succ. Rt. +	103.9	57
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	27.3	17	Def. FP+	28.8	51
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.4	71	Redzone S&P+	97.5	84
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	24.7		ACTUAL	22	-2.7

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	15	59	57	59
RUSHING	39	63	46	65
PASSING	16	71	62	71
Standard Downs		52	56	51
Passing Downs		76	57	81

Q1 Rk	45	1st Down Rk	30
Q2 Rk	76	2nd Down Rk	25
Q3 Rk	36	3rd Down Rk	72
Q4 Rk	40

3. Go fast, part 1

With offensive coordinator Sanford heading to South Bend, Harsin handed the reins to tight ends coach Eliah Drinkwitz. Drinkwitz pulls from different influences.

For better or worse, Boise State had a clear identity in 2015, one it will likely maintain. The Broncos operated at one of the highest tempos in the country, and that didn't change when freshman Rypien took over.

Rypien was the jewel of the recruiting class, but he got the reins sooner than expected. Against two solid defenses, Finley had completed 66 percent of his passes, albeit with four interceptions, but he injured his ankle.

Rypien and sophomore running back/slot receiver Jeremy McNichols showed immense upside. But McNichols was inefficient, and Rypien was a freshman. That led to plenty of glitches.

Despite up-and-down results, Drinkwitz was hired away by NC State this January. As seems to be increasingly common, Harsin elected to go with co-coordinators as replacements. Offensive line coach Scott Huff was given part of the job, and former Eastern Washington offensive coordinator Zak Hill took the other half.

Hill is intriguing. He actually followed new Hawaii coach Nick Rolovich to the islands this offseason but couldn't pass up the Boise opportunity. Hill has ran an excellent, high-tempo, pass-first attack 400 miles away in Wyoming, and he should find pieces he likes.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Brett Rypien	6'2, 199	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9044	272	428	3350	20	8	63.6%	20	4.5%	7.2
Ryan Finley	6'4, 200	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8600	46	70	485	1	4	65.7%	6	7.9%	6.0
Thomas Stuart	5'11, 196	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7724	12	18	114	1	0	66.7%	5	21.7%	3.4
Jake Constantine	6'1, 185	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8201

4. The training wheels are off (if they were ever on)

The odds of one of these QBs turning out well are high, but you never know that one will actually play well until he actually does.

Finley was fine in his brief tenure as a starter, but Rypien quickly proved his high ceiling. [Update: Finley transferred to N.C. State. this offseason.] In his first two starts against Virginia and Hawaii, he completed 43 of 60 passes for 592 yards, six touchdowns, and no interceptions. His passer rating topped 170 in these two games and two others, and it was above 145 three other times. In his final two games, he completed 75 percent for 574 yards.

With four of his top five targets back, including 1,400-yard receiver Thomas Sperbeck, Rypien's ceiling should be as high or higher. The main question, however, is about his floor.

As is customary for a true freshman, the lows were awfully low. In Boise State's three MWC losses, he completed just 51 percent at 11.8 yards per completion with six interceptions. Rypien is still only 12 months removed from senior prom, and he will have some dicey moments again. But how many? And against whom?

Going at a mach-speed tempo with a freshman quarterback means you're going to run into walls. What happens now that Rypien's a sophomore?

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Jeremy McNichols	RB	5'9, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7859	240	1337	20	5.6	8.2	34.6%	4	2
Kelsey Young	RB					101	511	8	5.1	4.9	33.7%	1	1
Devan Demas	RB	5'8, 175	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8556	29	171	2	5.9	6.0	48.3%	1	1
Ryan Wolpin	RB	5'8, 191	Jr.	NR	NR	25	155	0	6.2	6.7	44.0%	0	0
Thomas Stuart	QB	5'11, 196	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7724	25	98	3	3.9	3.5	32.0%	1	0
Brett Rypien	QB	6'2, 199	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9044	21	50	1	2.4	2.2	23.8%	8	3
Cory Young	RB	5'10, 200	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8492	17	90	0	5.3	7.1	35.3%	0	0
Ryan Finley	QB	6'4, 200	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8600	16	74	0	4.6	1.9	43.8%	0	0
Shane Williams-Rhodes	WR					13	102	1	7.8	6.9	53.8%	1	0
Jack Fields	RB					9	31	0	3.4	1.1	44.4%	0	0
Thomas Sperbeck	WR	6'0, 175	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8135	5	42	0	8.4	5.8	60.0%	1	1
Alexander Mattison	RB	5'11, 200	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8584

5. A disappointing run game (to a degree)

The line will block well for any runner, but we don't know that any running back will do well until he proves it.

Line play and line stats are tricky things. A line's success depends so much on the ball-carriers, and chemistry can change the quality drastically from year to year.

I was certain BSU would have one of the best mid-major lines last year. And while Rypien's quick release helped out the sack rates, either the Broncos weren't capable of helping McNichols find open space, or McNichols wasn't capable of taking advantage of the blocks he got.

When McNichols got to the second level of the defense, he tended to run a long way. He finished with 15 gains of 20-plus yards and 34 of 10-plus. But he only managed a five-yard gain on 35 percent of his carries, a pretty low total.

Was this on the line? On the running back? Regardless of the answer (which is almost certainly "both"), the good news is that things improved. McNichols averaged just 3.8 yards per carry through the first three games of the year, then 6.1 the rest of the way. He missed the Utah State game with a concussion, then averaged 152 yards per game over the rest of the regular season.

With McNichols and backups Devan Demas and Ryan Wolpin returning (both Demas and Wolpin were more efficient, but not as explosive), BSU should have the pieces in the backfield.

But what about the line? Disappointing or not, it produced two all-conference performers (center Marcus Henry and tackle Rees Odhiambo), and both are gone. Everybody else is back, and Auburn transfer Will Adams could make an impact.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Thomas Sperbeck	WR-X	6'0, 175	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8135	140	89	1431	63.6%	27.7%	10.2	67.1%	52.9%	1.73
Shane Williams-Rhodes	WR-H					83	62	521	74.7%	16.4%	6.3	65.1%	50.6%	1.18
Chaz Anderson	WR-Z	5'10, 186	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8714	79	42	581	53.2%	15.6%	7.4	60.8%	45.6%	1.49
Jeremy McNichols	RB	5'9, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7859	57	51	460	89.5%	11.3%	8.1	45.6%	56.1%	1.35
Jake Roh	TE	6'3, 229	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8435	46	33	357	71.7%	9.1%	7.8	54.3%	54.3%	1.33
Holden Huff	TE					36	18	243	50.0%	7.1%	6.8	61.1%	38.9%	1.57
A.J. Richardson	WR-Z	6'0, 205	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8407	18	10	113	55.6%	3.6%	6.3	44.4%	44.4%	1.19
Kelsey Young	RB					10	8	65	80.0%	2.0%	6.5	50.0%	30.0%	1.82
Terrell Johnson	WR-H					8	4	9	50.0%	1.6%	1.1	87.5%	25.0%	0.47
Sean Modster	WR-H	5'11, 187	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7967	6	3	39	50.0%	1.2%	6.5	16.7%	50.0%	1.14
Akilian Butler	WR	5'10, 175	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8544	4	3	38	75.0%	0.8%	9.5	75.0%	50.0%	1.38
Alec Dhaenens	TE	6'3, 244	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8435	3	2	22	66.7%	0.6%	7.3	66.7%	66.7%	1.30
Austin Cottrell	WR-X	6'2, 206	Jr.	NR	NR	2	1	37	50.0%	0.4%	18.5	50.0%	50.0%	3.54
Chase Blakley	TE	6'4, 235	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8711
Jake Knight (Auburn)	TE	6'4, 230	So.	NR	NR
Matt Pistone	TE	6'3, 242	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8504
Bryan Jefferson	WR	5'11, 188	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8254
Cedrick Wilson	WR	6'3, 190	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8238
Julian Carter	WR	6'3, 190	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8946
Bubba Ogbebor	WR	6'1, 195	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8351
John Bates	TE	6'6, 215	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8119

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	94.2	2.74	3.27	36.5%	76.8%	19.5%	105.4	5.8%	5.7%
Rank	100	90	63	92	10	70	52	83	31

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Marcus Henry	C					13	40	2015 1st All-MWC
Rees Odhiambo	LT					8	25	2015 1st All-MWC
Travis Averill	LG	6'3, 299	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8722	11	28
Steven Baggett	RG	6'3, 282	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8227	13	27
Mario Yakoo	RT	6'4, 329	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8148	12	26
Archie Lewis	LT	6'3, 289	Jr.	NR	NR	8	13
Jerhen Ertel	RT					0	0
Will Adams (Auburn)	OL	6'7, 303	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8441	0	0
Kellen Buhr	RG	6'1, 282	Sr.	NR	NR	0	0
Andrew Tercek	LG	6'1, 281	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8435	0	0
Mason Hampton	C	6'3, 290	Jr.	NR	NR	0	0
Andres Preciado	LT	6'6, 277	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7726	0	0
Eric Quevedo	OL	6'4, 297	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8200
John Molchon	OL	6'5, 295	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8180
Garrett Larson	OL	6'4, 282	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8081
Kole Bailey	OL	6'5, 285	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8441
Ezra Cleveland	OL	6'6, 275	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8115

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.51	126	IsoPPP+	100.9	64
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	33.0%	5	Succ. Rt. +	120.9	7
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	32.4	22	Off. FP+	30.8	46
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	3.9	27	Redzone S&P+	122.8	12
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	25.6		ACTUAL	31.0	+5.4

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	12	37	7	64
RUSHING	5	7	5	27
PASSING	45	50	25	69
Standard Downs		18	3	40
Passing Downs		77	50	92

Q1 Rk	9	1st Down Rk	22
Q2 Rk	79	2nd Down Rk	8
Q3 Rk	3	3rd Down Rk	39
Q4 Rk	39

6. Go fast, part 2

The Broncos had a bit of a big-play issue, but for most opponents, aiming for a big play on the ground wasn't worth it when a vast majority of carries went three or fewer yards. The line was an underrated reason for the Broncos' success in the 2009-11 window, and this might be as good as any BSU has had.

The Harsin identity means aggression. Boise State played at a crazy tempo on offense and attacked in every concievable way on defense. The Broncos held opponents to a 33 percent success rate, fifth in the country (seventh with opponent adjustments) and were willing to sacrifice big plays for three-and-outs and turnovers.

This can be a wonderful approach as long as the big plays don't get out of hand. But while BSU allowed just 135 gains of 10-plus yards (sixth-fewest in FBS), 20 went for 40-plus (105th). That's too damn many big plays, and it ruined the effects of having one of the best run defenses in the country.

By the way ... surprise! Harsin lost another coordinator! Marcel Yates left for Arizona (and took some recruiting prowess with him) and was replaced by linebackers coach Andy Avalos. So don't expect the identity to change much.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	122.9	2.10	3.08	29.5%	51.2%	27.7%	110.7	6.8%	7.4%
Rank	5	3	52	4	9	5	47	14	64

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Kamalei Correa	STUD					13	31.0	4.8%	11.0	7.0	0	0	3	0
Tyler Horn	DE					13	29.0	4.5%	8.5	4.0	1	2	1	1
Gabe Perez (2014)	STUD	6'4, 236	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8445	14	24.5	3.2%	7.5	3.5	0	2	0	0
Armand Nance	NT					13	19.0	2.9%	7.5	3.5	0	0	0	0
Justin Taimatuia	DT					13	18.5	2.8%	6.0	2.0	1	2	0	0
Jabril Frazier	STUD	6'4, 232	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8414	11	14.0	2.2%	4.0	2.5	0	2	0	0
Sam McCaskill	DE	6'3, 257	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7000	13	12.0	1.8%	1.5	0.5	0	1	0	0
Elliot Hoyte	DT	6'4, 271	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7583	13	10.5	1.6%	1.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Dereck Boles	DT					13	8.5	1.3%	4.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Tutulupeatau Mataele	DT					11	8.5	1.3%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
David Moa	DE	6'3, 269	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8091	5	3.0	0.5%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Durrant Miles	STUD	6'5, 226	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8301	11	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kaleb Hill	DE	6'1, 237	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8116
Matt Locher	DE	6'2, 252	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8222
Sam Whitney	DE	6'1, 234	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8081
Daniel Auelua	DT	6'2, 290	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8093
Kayode Rufai	DE	6'4, 240	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8528
Jabari Watson	DT	6'2, 265	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8413
Curtis Weaver	DE	6'4, 280	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8385
Chase Hatada	DE	6'2, 255	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8317
Nick Crabtree	DE	6'6, 250	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8289
Derriyon Shaw	DE	6'3, 230	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8281
Emmanuel Fesili	DT	6'2, 280	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8156

7. A void at tackle

That BSU was efficient against the run is impressive considering the Broncos were missing both Tyler Horn and Justin Taimatuia. Each was a key member of the defensive rotation, but both missed 2014 with injuries.

The return of both Horn and Taimatuia gave Boise State a stout, deep front four despite the loss of end Gabe Perez. Six linemen recorded at least four tackles for loss, as did three linebackers, and the Broncos were strong enough tactically to dominate on standard downs. They penetrated the backfield against both run and pass, allowing just 3.1 yards per rush and a 105.9 passer rating on first downs.

The problem came on later downs. Though opponents completed only 50 of 103 passes on third-and-4 or more, and though Boise State picked off seven of those passes, the 50 completions gained 790 yards and scored five touchdowns.

Still, the front seven was awesome. Four experienced linemen and about five experienced linebackers return, along with the fruits of back-to-back strong recruiting classes. The one warning sign: three of those four linemen are ends. Only senior Elliot Hoyte has much experience at tackle, and he made all of 10.5 tackles last year. Four of the top five tackles are gone, and that's scary. Sophomore David Moa is evidently moving inside, and senior Sam McCaskill played on the inside a lot in 2014. But it would help BSU's prospects immensely if JUCO transfer Daniel Auelua were able to quickly establish a spot in the rotation.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Ben Weaver	WLB	6'0, 228	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8681	13	51.0	7.8%	4.0	0.0	3	1	1	1
Tanner Vallejo	MLB	6'1, 230	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8594	12	44.5	6.8%	8.0	1.0	0	0	2	0
Tyler Gray	WLB					12	41.5	6.4%	8.0	3.0	0	3	2	0
Joe Martarano	MLB	6'3, 228	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8463	13	36.5	5.6%	2.5	0.0	1	0	0	0
Darren Lee	MLB	6'1, 229	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7667	13	17.0	2.6%	2.0	1.0	1	1	0	0
Leighton Vander Esch	WLB	6'4, 234	So.	NR	NR	12	17.0	2.6%	1.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Drew Berger	WLB	6'1, 220	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8548
Marquis Hendrix	MLB	6'0, 228	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8115
Tyson Maeva	LB	6'0, 230	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8310
Desmond Williams	LB	6'0, 190	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8033

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Darian Thompson	S					12	51.0	7.8%	8.5	1	5	4	2	0
Chanceller James	NB	6'2, 216	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8453	13	43.0	6.6%	5	2	1	6	0	0
Jonathan Moxey	CB	5'10, 188	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7959	13	34.0	5.2%	1	1	2	10	0	0
Donte Deayon	CB					10	32.5	5.0%	3	0	4	7	1	0
Mercy Maston	CB					12	23.0	3.5%	1	0	1	2	1	0
Kameron Miles	S	6'1, 215	Jr.	NR	0.8561	12	21.5	3.3%	0.5	0	0	3	2	0
Raymond Ford	CB	5'10, 183	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8000	12	13.5	2.1%	1	0	2	2	0	0
Dylan Sumner-Gardner	S	6'1, 201	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9607	4	12.5	1.9%	1	0	0	1	0	0
Tyler Horton	CB	5'11, 172	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8289	12	11.0	1.7%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Skyler Seibold	S	6'1, 192	So.	NR	NR	13	3.0	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cameron Hartsfield	S	5'10, 187	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7678	12	2.5	0.4%	1	0	0	1	0	0
Evan Tyler	S	6'2, 181	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8451
Ladarryl Blair	CB	5'11, 188	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8432
Damion Wright	S	6'0, 204	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8417
Donzale Roddie	CB	5'10, 190	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8404
Darreon Jackson	S	5'11, 187	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8184
DeAndre Pierce	CB	5'11, 175	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8184
Robert Lewis	CB	5'10, 170	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8123
Reid Harrison-Ducros	CB	5'11, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8060

8. A void at cornerback

With ballhawk Darian Thompson and scrappy corners Donte Deayon and Jonathan Moxey leading the way and a host of hungry youngsters backing them up, this unit will likely make plenty of plays.

Indeed, the secondary made plays last year. Safeties Thompson and Chanceller James combined for 13.5 tackles for loss, six picks, and 10 breakups, and corners Moxey, Deayon, and Mercy Maston combined for five, seven, and 19, respectively. This was an active, aggressive, confident secondary, one that frequently flustered opponents and allowed a mere 93.5 passer rating in nine wins.

In four losses, meanwhile, the Broncos allowed 18.5 yards per completion and a 175.6 passer rating.

Constant turnover was an issue. Thompson, Maston, a few backups missed at least one game, Deayon missed three, and blue-chip safety Dylan Sumner-Gardner missed nine. Shuffling can lead to communication errors.

Thanks to the shuffling, nine defensive backs saw quite a bit of playing time, and six of them return. The safety position should be particularly strong with the return of James, Sumner-Gardner, and Kameron Miles, not to mention the addition of three three-star redshirt freshmen to the mix.

Cornerback, however, might be an issue. Moxey's back but Deayon and Miles aren't, meaning it's senior Raymond Ford and a bunch of youngsters fighting it out for the starting spot opposite Moxey. Whoever wins the battle -- likely either Ford or sophomore Tyler Horton -- should be pretty strong, but a couple of injuries would mean that BSU is playing freshmen in the backfield.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Sean Wale	6'2, 185	Sr.	53	42.1	5	20	21	77.4%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Tyler Rausa	5'9, 183	Sr.	95	62.7	56	3	58.9%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Tyler Rausa	5'9, 183	Sr.	59-61	17-18	94.4%	8-12	66.7%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Terrell Johnson	KR			19	23.0	0
Jeremy McNichols	KR	5'9, 205	Jr.	5	17.8	0
Donte Deayon	PR			16	3.3	0
Shane Williams-Rhodes	PR			8	8.9	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	12
Field Goal Efficiency	14
Punt Return Success Rate	96
Kick Return Success Rate	54
Punt Success Rate	57
Kickoff Success Rate	18

9. If only Tyler Rausa had been around in 2010

Too soon?

After a string of problems at the kicker position, BSU seems to have found a good one in Rausa, who booted there of every five kickoffs for touchbacks and proved both consistent on shorter kicks and accurate on longer kicks. His success made Boise State's special teams unit pretty good.

Then again, it may have had more to do with the year.

We know all about the key kicks the Broncos missed in the 2010-12 window, but beyond that, they ranked first in Special Teams F/+ in 2011, third in 2013, and 10th in 2009 ... and 52nd in 2012 and 56th in 2010. Even-numbered years apparently aren't kind to this unit.

Top 15 in every odd-numbered year, worse than 50th in the evens. If Rausa misses his first couple of kicks this fall, don't say I didn't warn you.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
3-Sep	at UL-Lafayette	106	15.3	81%
10-Sep	Washington State	48	6.8	65%
24-Sep	at Oregon State	86	7.7	67%
1-Oct	Utah State	73	11.1	74%
8-Oct	at New Mexico	102	13.2	78%
15-Oct	Colorado State	96	18.2	85%
20-Oct	BYU	35	3.4	58%
29-Oct	at Wyoming	110	16.4	83%
5-Nov	San Jose State	92	16.7	83%
12-Nov	at Hawaii	118	18.2	85%
18-Nov	UNLV	114	24.4	92%
26-Nov	at Air Force	80	5.5	62%
Projected wins: 9.1

Five-Year F/+ Rk	28.3% (17)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	65 / 69
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	9 / 0.9
2015 TO Luck/Game	+2.9
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	70% (87%, 53%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	9.2 (-0.2)

10. Spoiler alert: I'm picking BSU to win the conference again

If Boise State was ever gone, Boise State is back.

I fell into the "[Previously Great Team] is back!!" trap. I loved the Broncos' returning production,  recruiting, and schedule. And BSU ended up losing at least three more games than I thought.

Where did last year's preview go wrong? It underestimated the instability that could unfold with a new quarterback and offensive coordinator. I didn't expect Rypien to win the job, and he technically didn't, but he was called on.

Meanwhile, it appears injuries did just enough of a number on the secondary that cracks formed. An exciting unit was sometimes exciting for the wrong reasons.

Now, this year ... I'm falling into the same trap. The offense is more experienced, and I like the latest moves on the offensive coaching staff; meanwhile, the defense has questions to answer at tackle and cornerback but boast an embarrassment of riches at end, linebacker, and potentially safety.

I'm not going to predict anything close to an unbeaten record this time, but I do have to note BSU is a projected favorite in every 2015 game. I would be surprised if the Broncos didn't hit double-digits wins again.