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It had been a nice run. After beginning life in FBS with 29 losses in 32 games, Georgia State was on a three-game winning streak. The Panthers had traveled to San Marcos and pummeled a fading Texas State. They had disposed of South Alabama and Troy with relative ease (24-10 and 31-21, respectively). After almost three years of wondering why it was on this journey at all, GSU had found proof of concept.
It was going to end, though. At 5-6, GSU needed a win at rival Georgia Southern to reach bowl eligibility, and that wasn't going to happen. The Eagles were 14-1 in Sun Belt play since their FBS move. They had scored at least 37 points in eight of their last 10 games, had won three Sun Belt games by an average of 32 points since a loss to Appalachian State, and had only two weeks earlier taken Georgia to overtime. They had hung 69 points on State the year before in Atlanta. Teams that come to Statesboro desperate for a win don't leave happy.
Early in the second quarter, quarterback Nick Arbuckle hit Penny Hart for a 63-yard score to put the Panthers on top. It was a familiar sight; Arbuckle was on his way to a nearly 4,400-yard passing season, and Hart had been a revelation. The tiny freshman had been rated as the No. 213 prospect in the state of Georgia but was on his way to finishing with 1,099 yards.
Still, it was going to end. Georgia Southern responded with a touchdown, and while the game was still tied at halftime, it was only a matter of time.
GSU had no interest in fate. The Panthers forced a Southern punt, then drove 81 yards for a touchdown. They forced another and drove 85 yards for another score. They made a fourth-down stop near midfield, then began the fourth quarter with another score. Another punt, another score.
Georgia State found itself up 34-7. On Georgia Southern. In Statesboro. To clinch a bowl bid. Life sneaks up on you.
So many coaches have similar levels of talent, and what differentiates one tenure from another is a span of a few weeks here or there, when everything either comes together or falls apart.
Trent Miles appeared to be a smart choice to take on a hard job. He had resurrected a moribund Indiana State, going 1-22 in his first two seasons at his alma mater, then responding with three straight winning records. He inherited a GSU that was bereft of facilities, history, or even a campus stadium. And as is his custom, he won one game in his first two years.
Miles' third year hinted at offensive promise, but his defense still hadn't proven much, and at 2-6, with blown opportunities and tight losses against Charlotte, Liberty, and UL-Lafayette, the window to a surprising six-win season had apparently closed. But with every reason to think this tenure wasn't going to work, Miles put together a nearly perfect month.
For all we know, a series of four weeks redefined the program's trajectory. Or it delayed the inevitable. We're about to find out.
2015 Schedule & Results
|Record: 6-7 | Adj. Record: 5-8 | Final F/+ Rk: 87 | Final S&P+ Rk: 91|
|Date||Opponent||Opp. F/+ Rk||Score||W-L||Percentile
|12-Sep||at New Mexico State||118||34-32||W||25%||45%||+1.8||+9.0|
|17-Oct||at Ball State||110||31-19||W||55%||91%||+23.5||+27.5|
|31-Oct||at Arkansas State||71||34-48||L||19%||7%||-0.5||+4.5|
|14-Nov||at Texas State||116||41-19||W||80%||100%||+26.2||+25.0|
|5-Dec||at Georgia Southern||48||34-7||W||92%||100%||+48.1||+48.0|
|19-Dec||vs. San Jose State||89||16-27||L||29%||31%||-12.5||-8.5|
|Points Per Game||26.9||79||28.3||79|
2. Healthier + luckier = better
Georgia State still has plenty of institutional disadvantages. But Miles' third squad found advantages that his second team had not.
In 2014, GSU was ripped up by injury at running back, linebacker, and defensive back and dealt with some of the worst turnovers luck in the country. That they had still managed to craft a decent passing game and lose to two bowl teams (UL-Lafayette, South Alabama) by three points on the road hinted at potential.
Injuries hurt in the present tense but help in the future tense. GSU had a much sturdier level of depth and experience in 2015, in part because of 2014's injuries. And when combined with much better injuries and turnovers luck, the Panthers found staying power.
Or maybe it was more like surging power. When other teams faded, GSU got better.
- First 8 games:
Average percentile performance: 26% | Record: 2-6 | Avg. score: Opp 36, GSU 26 | Yards per play: GSU 6.1, Opp 5.8
- Next 4 games:
Average percentile performance: 74% | Record: 4-0 | Avg. score: GSU 33, Opp 14 | Yards per play: GSU 6.7, Opp 4.6
It wasn't just that GSU won its last four games of the regular season; it's that the Panthers did it by an average of 19 points. That was jarring. Yes, the season ended with a dud in the Cure Bowl, but that wasn't enough to take away from November.
How much is sustainable? GSU was so young in 2014 that, even with so much more 2015 experience, the Panthers still return their top four running backs, seven of their top eight receiving targets, six offensive linemen with starting experience, their top seven defensive linemen, four of their top five linebackers, and five of their top seven defensive backs. The volume of experience here is wonderful, and they're projected in the top five of the Sun Belt because of it.
What we don't know is whether the Panthers have a quarterback. Nick Arbuckle was very good -- you could make a case that he was the best college QB in the state of Georgia -- and he's gone.
|FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE|
|Raw Category||Rk||Opp. Adj. Category||Rk|
|EFFICIENCY||Succ. Rt.||41.2%||73||Succ. Rt. +||93.6||101|
|FIELD POSITION||Def. Avg. FP||30.4||82||Def. FP+||31.5||102|
|FINISHING DRIVES||Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity||4.7||46||Redzone S&P+||104.1||55|
|Q1 Rk||88||1st Down Rk||91|
|Q2 Rk||48||2nd Down Rk||82|
|Q3 Rk||54||3rd Down Rk||88|
Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.
|Emiere Scaife||6'2, 218||So.||2 stars (5.3)||0.7988||0||8||0||0||0||0.0%||1||11.1%||-0.4|
|Aaron Winchester||6'2, 175||RSFr.||2 stars (5.3)||0.7971|
|6'1, 205||Jr.||3 stars (5.5)||0.8326|
3. Life after Arbuckle
Arbuckle was encouraging in 2014 and downright awesome in 2015. The two-year starter from Camarillo, Cal., threw for 3,283 yards and 23 touchdowns in 2014, but he took a few too many sacks (6.5 percent sack rate) and threw a few too many picks (4 percent interception rate). Granted, he still held onto the ball a bit too long at times, but his 2015 production was a leap forward -- he improved from 6.8 yards per pass attempt to 8, and his INT rate fell to 2.5 percent.
Now he's gone. Miles has managed some impressive continuity on his offensive coaching staff, where both quarterbacks coach Luke Huard and offensive coordinator Jeff Jagodzinski remain. They were able to engineer clear improvement out of Arbuckle and may be able to do the same with the next guy. Still, it's hard to imagine QB doesn't regress.
There are three candidates.
- Emiere Scaife. Arbuckle's backup in 2015, Scaife threw eight passes as a redshirt freshman. He completed none of them and took a sack, resulting in an average of minus-0.4 yards per pass attempt. He was a decent recruit, choosing GSU over Appalachian State and hometown Charlotte.
- Aaron Winchester. A dual-threat from Alpharetta, he could stand out by having a different skill set than his competitors.
- Conner Manning. GSU potentially got a lifeline when this former three-star recruit not only transferred in from Utah but secured immediate eligibility by finishing his undergrad study in 2.5 years. He's the rare graduate transfer with two years of eligibility. He threw a few passes in 2014 and, like, Scaife, didn't take advantage of his opportunity.
Due to his recruiting profile and age alone, Manning might be the new favorite. But the bar is awfully high.
|Glenn Smith||RB||6'1, 185||Jr.||NR||NR||89||356||1||4.0||5.5||27.0%||1||1|
|Kyler Neal||RB||5'11, 218||Jr.||NR||NR||84||329||5||3.9||4.0||25.0%||2||1|
|Demarcus Kirk||RB||6'0, 190||So.||2 stars (5.2)||0.7544||75||320||2||4.3||3.9||32.0%||3||3|
|Taz Bateman||RB||5'8, 185||Jr.||NR||0.7900||49||251||1||5.1||3.5||51.0%||2||1|
|Marquan Greene||WR||5'10, 180||So.||2 stars (5.2)||0.7733||6||19||0||3.2||0.8||33.3%||0||0|
|Kendrick Dorn||RB||6'0, 205||Jr.||2 stars (5.3)||0.7652|
|Tra Barnett||RB||5'10, 170||Fr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7856|
|Darius Stubbs||RB||5'10, 188||Fr.||2 stars (5.3)||0.8005|
4. You might actually need to run the ball this year
The success of the passing game took away from a nagging issue: GSU couldn't run to save its life. The Panthers ranked a dismal 126th in Rushing S&P+, surviving only because Arbuckle and his receivers were so good on passing downs. But with a new QB, issues in the ground game could become more problematic.
That GSU returns its top four backs is a good thing, and it's worth noting all four were either freshmen or sophomores a year ago. Glenn Smith showed decent burst when he got an opportunity, but neither he nor any of his counterparts got many opportunities.
It's hard to assign blame between the young corps of running backs and the linemen who were blocking for them. That a glitchy line has to replace two starters isn't a good thing, but there's decent experience up front. We'll have to see if there's a back capable of taking advantage.
|Rivals||247 Comp.||Targets||Catches||Yards||Catch Rate||Target
|Penny Hart||WR||5'9, 170||So.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7891||105||71||1099||67.6%||22.1%||10.5||62.9%||46.7%||2.08|
|Robert Davis||WR||6'3, 198||Sr.||NR||NR||100||62||995||62.0%||21.0%||10.0||64.0%||50.0%||1.80|
|Keith Rucker||TE||6'3, 235||Sr.||NR||NR||46||39||522||84.8%||9.7%||11.3||56.5%||71.7%||1.53|
|Todd Boyd||WR||5'11, 180||Jr.||2 stars (5.2)||0.7483||34||25||296||73.5%||7.1%||8.7||55.9%||52.9%||1.48|
|Glenn Smith||RB||6'1, 185||Jr.||NR||NR||25||17||115||68.0%||5.3%||4.6||36.0%||20.0%||1.97|
|Kyler Neal||RB||5'11, 218||Jr.||NR||NR||16||11||87||68.8%||3.4%||5.4||50.0%||37.5%||1.01|
|Taz Bateman||RB||5'8, 185||Jr.||NR||0.7900||14||12||163||85.7%||2.9%||11.6||35.7%||57.1%||1.84|
|Ari Werts||TE||6'4, 225||So.||2 stars (5.4)||0.8037||12||5||84||41.7%||2.5%||7.0||33.3%||41.7%||1.40|
|Demarcus Kirk||RB||6'0, 190||So.||2 stars (5.2)||0.7544||10||8||84||80.0%||2.1%||8.4||70.0%||70.0%||1.02|
|Bill Teknipp||TE||6'4, 235||Jr.||2 stars (5.2)||0.7333||6||2||12||33.3%||1.3%||2.0||50.0%||33.3%||0.43|
|Octavious Andrews||WR||6'0, 180||Sr.||NR||NR||3||1||14||33.3%||0.6%||4.7||66.7%||33.3%||1.65|
|Eric Elder||WR||6'1, 177||Fr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7856|
|Jawan Nobles||WR||6'3, 180||Fr.||2 stars (5.3)||0.7880|
5. Receivers for days
Granted, you don't want to have to lean on a new QB too much on passing downs, but when the new QB is surveying the field, he should find some exciting options.
Hart was able to single-handedly make Arbuckle's job easier when he came out of nowhere. He caught 21 passes for 331 yards in his first three games (nine for 128 against Oregon), and he caught between five and seven balls for eight straight games before a one-catch dud in the Cure Bowl. His emergence meant everybody else could move down a weight class. Robert Davis turned into a stellar No. 2 (or No. 1a) with 62 catches and 10.0 yards per target. Tight end Keith Rucker became an extreme efficiency weapon, with an 85 percent catch rate and 72 percent success rate. Hell, even as the No. 5 target, Todd Boyd still had 25 catches and 8.7 yards per target.
These guys are all back, and the running backs were decent receiving options as well. There are exciting youngsters like sophomore tight end Ari Werts and incoming freshmen Eric Elder and Jawan Nobles, but they might have to wait their turn.
|Rivals||247 Comp.||2015 Starts||Career Starts||Honors/Notes|
|Alex Stoehr||RG||6'2, 300||Jr.||2 stars (5.2)||0.7700||13||25|
|Michael Ivory||LT||6'5, 340||Sr.||2 stars (5.2)||0.7400||9||14|
|Gabe Mobley||C||6'2, 275||So.||2 stars (5.2)||0.7736||11||11|
|Sebastian Willer||LT||6'5, 279||Jr.||2 stars (5.2)||NR||4||4|
|Akil Hawkins||RG||6'2, 282||Sr.||NR||NR||0||4|
|Davis Moore||LG||6'4, 300||Jr.||2 stars (5.2)||NR||2||3|
|Lucas Johnson||RT||6'4, 285||So.||2 stars (5.2)||0.7433||0||0|
|Tyler Simonsen||OL||6'3, 305||Sr.||3 stars (5.5)||0.7800||0||0|
|Dom Roldan||OL||6'6, 350||Sr.||2 stars (5.3)||0.7594||0||0|
|Malik Besseck||OL||6'4, 275||Fr.||2 stars (5.2)||0.7900|
|FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE|
|Raw Category||Rk||Opp. Adj. Category||Rk|
|EFFICIENCY||Succ. Rt.||42.3%||75||Succ. Rt. +||95.4||83|
|FIELD POSITION||Off. Avg. FP||25.3||128||Off. FP+||24.1||128|
|FINISHING DRIVES||Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity||4.1||39||Redzone S&P+||102.5||61|
|Q1 Rk||75||1st Down Rk||69|
|Q2 Rk||65||2nd Down Rk||63|
|Q3 Rk||70||3rd Down Rk||53|
6. Bend ... bend ... bend...
Georgia State's defense played with bend-don't-break principles in 2015; the Panthers allowed a mediocre 42 percent success rate but gave up just 20 gains of 30-plus yards, 26th in FBS. That can work as long as you're not bending too much. And in their late-season surge, they managed to tighten up the efficiency issues without giving up a higher rate of big plays.
After allowing a 44.5 percent success rate through eight games, they allowed just 37.6 during their three-game winning streak. That average would have ranked in the top 30 over a full season. You can win a lot of games in the Sun Belt with a defense that efficient.
Stil, Jesse Minter's defense was a bit confusing: good against the run and bad against the pass, bad on standard downs but good on passing downs. That's a rare combination. GSU was good at defending the run but wasn't good on downs when the offense was more likely to run?
I think the explanation is that GSU was indeed good against the run but was really, really bad against the pass until second- or third-and-long. Regardless, the ceiling for the defense could be pretty high with the experience returning.
|Rivals||247 Comp.||GP||Tackles||% of Team||TFL||Sacks||Int||PBU||FF||FR|
|Shawanye Lawrence||DE||6'4, 270||Sr.||2 stars (5.2)||NR||13||33.5||4.4%||3.5||0.5||0||4||0||0|
|Mackendy Cheridor||DE||6'5, 250||Jr.||NR||NR||13||29.5||3.8%||6.5||3.0||0||2||1||0|
|Carnell Hopson||DE||6'2, 268||Sr.||2 stars (5.2)||NR||13||16.0||2.1%||2.0||2.0||0||2||1||0|
|Jalen Lawrence||NG||6'1, 285||Sr.||2 stars (5.2)||0.7800||13||15.5||2.0%||1.5||0.0||0||0||0||0|
|Tevin Jones||DE||6'4, 270||Sr.||2 stars (5.2)||NR||13||13.0||1.7%||0.5||0.0||1||0||0||0|
|Julien Laurent||NG||6'4, 325||Jr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7793||12||9.0||1.2%||1.0||0.0||0||0||0||0|
|Marterious Allen||DE||6'2, 240||So.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7806||11||3.0||0.4%||2.0||0.0||0||0||0||0|
|Will Cunningham||DE||6'1, 280||Jr.||2 stars (5.3)||NR|
|DeQueszman Kelley||NG||6'0, 285||Jr.||2 stars (5.2)||0.7300|
|Tavis Malakius||NG||6'2, 320||Fr.||2 stars (5.2)||0.7833|
|Rivals||247 Comp.||GP||Tackles||% of Team||TFL||Sacks||Int||PBU||FF||FR|
|Kaleb Ringer||ILB||6'0, 235||Sr.||2 stars (5.2)||0.7883||12||59.0||7.7%||3.0||0.0||0||1||0||0|
|Alonzo McGee||OLB||6'1, 220||Sr.||NR||NR||13||56.0||7.3%||12.5||2.5||0||0||0||0|
|Trey Payne||ILB||6'0, 230||Jr.||2 stars (5.3)||NR||12||32.0||4.2%||4.0||1.0||0||1||1||0|
|Michael Shaw||OLB||6'4, 222||So.||2 stars (5.3)||0.7200||13||31.0||4.0%||7.5||3.0||0||0||0||0|
|OLB||6'5, 240||Sr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.8069||12||28.0||3.8%||1.0||0.0||0||2||0||0|
|James Traylor||OLB||6'3, 220||Jr.||NR||NR||9||12.5||1.6%||1.5||0.0||0||0||0||0|
|Ed Curney||LB||5'11, 220||So.||2 stars (5.2)||0.8213||11||12.0||1.6%||0.0||0.0||0||0||0||0|
|Chase Middleton||ILB||6'2, 225||So.||2 stars (5.3)||0.8167||13||8.0||1.0%||1.0||0.0||0||0||0||0|
|Niemus Bryant||OLB||6'0, 220||So.||2 stars (5.2)||0.7483||13||3.5||0.5%||0.0||0.0||0||0||1||0|
|Jameel Spencer||LB||6'1, 215||Sr.||2 stars (5.2)||0.7600||4||2.0||0.3%||0.0||0.0||0||0||0||0|
|Malik Ricks||LB||6'1, 230||Jr.||2 stars (5.3)||0.8107|
|Charlie Patrick||LB||6'0, 220||Fr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7856|
|Peyton Moore||LB||6'2, 225||Fr.||2 stars (5.3)||0.7844|
7. All the experience you could want
The Panthers made dramatic progress against the run in 2015, improving from 125th in Rushing S&P+ to a stunning 38th. Linebackers Alonzo McGhee (a UAB transfer) and Joseph Peterson (the only major player gone from the front seven) pursued incredibly well and combined for 17 non-sack tackles for loss. And while Peterson was the resident tackling machine, Kaleb Ringer made a huge impact on the interior.
McGee's return, along with that of Ringer and basically everybody up front, suggests good things about the run defense in 2016. So does the fact that the front seven is returning six starters and basically every second-stringer.
And at the very least, GSU blitzed well. No one in the country sacked the quarterback less frequently on standard downs, which hurt the Panthers badly when it came to forcing passing downs. But GSU reached the quarterback on one of every 12 passing downs pass attempts. Flip the leverage rate (the ratio of standard downs to passing downs) a bit, and watch Georgia State's overall defensive ratings rise quickly.
But is that doable? It might depend on Michael Shaw. As a freshman, Shaw finished with 7.5 tackles for loss and three sacks, and he had at least one TFL in each of the season's final four games. If he's ready to match McGee's attacking ability, then the Panthers will have two outstanding outside linebackers and, in theory, more pass rushing options.
|Rivals||247 Comp.||GP||Tackles||% of Team||TFL||Sacks||Int||PBU||FF||FR|
|Bobby Baker||S||6'2, 200||Sr.||NR||NR||13||64.5||8.4%||1||0||3||5||1||1|
|Chandon Sullivan||CB||5'11, 185||Jr.||2 stars (5.2)||0.7483||13||46.0||6.0%||4.5||2||2||8||0||0|
|Jerome Smith||CB||5'10, 165||So.||2 stars (5.3)||0.7200||12||35.0||4.6%||2||0.5||1||11||0||0|
|Bryan Williams||S||6'3, 200||Sr.||2 stars (5.3)||NR||13||17.0||2.2%||1.5||0||1||4||0||0|
|Antreal Allen||CB||5'11, 180||Jr.||3 stars (5.5)||0.8211||10||8.5||1.1%||0||0||1||0||0||0|
|B.J. Clay||CB||6'0, 180||Jr.||2 stars (5.2)||0.7000||12||5.0||0.7%||0||0||0||0||0||0|
|Cloves Campbell||DB||6'1, 205||Sr.||2 stars (5.2)||0.7200||13||2.5||0.3%||0||0||0||0||0||0|
|Robert Dowling||CB||5'10, 185||Sr.||NR||0.7000|
|Trent Hill||S||5'10, 185||Sr.||NR||NR|
|Ronald Peterkin||S||6'0, 170||So.||2 stars (5.3)||0.7594|
|Kendrec Grady||S||6'2, 209||Fr.||3 stars (5.5)||0.8217|
|Kwon Williams||S||6'0, 202||Fr.||3 stars (5.5)||0.8189|
8. Wanted: a little bit more pressure on first down
In the South Alabama preview, I said that with an improved pass rush, the USA secondary could thrive. It's basically the same thing for GSU. Granted, the passing downs pass rush was solid, but you can't wait for third-and-long for opponents to throw the ball.
- On third-and-7 or longer, opponents were 39-for-74 (53 percent) for 413 yards, one touchdown, and six interceptions (passer rating: 87.9)
- On first downs, opponents were 115-for-179 (64% percent) for 1,430 yards, nine touchdowns, and one interception (passer rating: 146.8).
Losing safety Terris Batiste and corner Bruce Dukes hurts; the two combined for 6.5 tackles for loss (all from Batiste) and 20 passes defensed. But the Panthers still have play-makers in safety Bobby Baker (another UAB transplant) and corners Chandon Sullivan and Jerome Smith, who combined for 6.5 TFLs and 22 passes defensed as a sophomore and freshman, respectively. Throw in former star recruit Antreal Allen and some combination of a few other upperclassmen and incoming star recruits Kendrec Grady and Kwon Williams, and you've got yourself one hell of a two-deep. Give the secondary a little more help, and watch the success rate plummet.
|Marquan Greene||KR||5'10, 180||So.||16||24.3||1|
|Glenn Smith||KR||6'1, 185||Jr.||7||21.6||0|
|Special Teams S&P+||116|
|Field Goal Efficiency||93|
|Punt Return Success Rate||128|
|Kick Return Success Rate||124|
|Punt Success Rate||100|
|Kickoff Success Rate||47|
9. Starting over on special teams (and that's okay)
Special teams were a massive drag for GSU in 2015. Will Lutz's kickoffs (and the corresponding coverage) were solid, and Lutz's strong leg made long field goals an option, but his was erratic inside of 40 yards, and while his punts were long, they were also returnable: The Panthers allowed 14.1 yards per punt return and two scores.
Meanwhile, both kick and punt returns were horrific. Marquan Greene did return one kickoff for a touchdown, but it was one of only three returns of 30-plus yards all season. Greene is back, but GSU is looking for a new punt returner and, with Lutz gone, a new punter, kicker, and kickoffs guy, too. But hey, at least the bar is pretty low here, even if Lutz's leg really was strong.
2016 Schedule & Projection Factors
|Date||Opponent||Proj. S&P+ Rk||Proj. Margin||Win Probability|
|10-Sep||at Air Force||80||-12.0||24%|
|1-Oct||at Appalachian State||59||-16.3||17%|
|29-Oct||at South Alabama||115||0.1||50%|
|Projected wins: 5.4|
|Five-Year F/+ Rk||-32.8% (120)|
|2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk||121 / 129|
|2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*||-1 / 1.5|
|2015 TO Luck/Game||-1.1|
|Returning Production (Off. / Def.)||56% (45%, 68%)|
|2015 Second-order wins (difference)||7.3 (-1.3)|
10. Survive an early gauntlet
It's so hard to make a prediction about a team with such a huge unknown at quarterback. Maybe Manning grasps the Jagodzinski offense from Day 1 and is able to replicate Arbuckle's numbers. Or maybe it never clicks, and GSU ends up going with a sophomore or redshirt freshman who might not be ready yet.
With solid QB play and further development in the pass rush, this could be one of the three or four best teams in the Sun Belt. The schedule, which features seven games against teams projected 101st or worse (and two more in the 80s) could lend itself to a second straight bowl run.
Regardless, the key will be another late kick. After a home opener against Ball State, GSU travels to Air Force, Wisconsin, and Appalachian State in succession. Combined record of those three last year: 29-11. Starting with the Texas State game on October 8, basically every game is winnable. So GSU has until then to answer a couple of questions.