Troy might be one or two playmakers from a darkhorse Sun Belt run

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1. Modernizing an old classic

At least the identity was similar.

Larry Blakeney's 24-year tenure as Troy's head coach ended during the 2014 season; after winning at least eight games for five straight seasons from 2006-10, thereby establishing the Trojans as a true presence in the Sun Belt (just as he had at the Division II and FCS levels), results diminished late in his career. The Trojans fell to 3-9 in 2011, rebounded to 6-6 in 2013, and just had nothing after that.

Blakeney was replaced by former offensive coordinator Neal Brown, and while the results weren't great, there was in no way a massive identity change. This felt like Troy football.

Blakeney's run was perhaps defined most by occasionally prolific passing offenses (he served as boss for renowned offensive coordinators like Tony Franklin and Brown) and athletic pass rushes (Troy alumni: Demarcus Ware, Osi Umenyiora). Perhaps it was comforting, then, that in the first post-Blakeney season, Troy threw the ball pretty frequently and rushed the passer well.

In 2015, Troy actually graded out reasonably well overall, too; at 90th in S&P+, the Trojans ranked higher than bowl teams Georgia State, Tulsa, Nevada, and New Mexico. But a slow start and an 0-3 record in one-possession finishes meant improvement mostly showed up on paper instead of in the win column.

This fall, Troy is shaping up as an optimist-vs.-pessimist team. An optimist can point out that the Trojans have a two-year starting quarterback and most of a defense that was too thin last fall but boasts quite a bit of experience this time around.

A pessimist, meanwhile, will point out that the only explosive skill position weapons are gone, as are the best pass rusher and two best defensive backs.

At the least, Troy was able to modernize last fall. Brown is still only 35 years old for a few more days, and he's hired a staff of assistants that are either young and hungry, tied to Blakeney, or both. There appears to be an energy here, as evidenced by what might have been Troy's most well-touted recruiting class ever -- per the 247Sports Composite, February's signing haul ranked second in the Sun Belt (behind only Georgia Southern) and included eight three-star recruits.

If you're looking for the Sun Belt team most likely to overachieve compared to last year's results, the energized Trojans might be a pretty solid choice. We'll just have to see about those skill position guys.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 4-8 | Adj. Record: 5-7 | Final F/+ Rk: 90 | Final S&P+ Rk: 90
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
5-Sep	at NC State	49	21-49	L	24%	8%	-9.0	-2.0
12-Sep	Charleston Southern	N/A	44-16	W	71%	100%	+20.5
19-Sep	at Wisconsin	32	3-28	L	5%	0%	+7.8	+10.0
3-Oct	South Alabama	102	18-24	L	17%	17%	-18.1	-12.0
10-Oct	at Mississippi State	16	17-45	L	4%	0%	-8.0	+2.5
17-Oct	Idaho	114	16-19	L	30%	43%	-6.4	-3.0
24-Oct	at New Mexico State	118	52-7	W	90%	100%	+44.7	+45.0
31-Oct	at Appalachian State	42	41-44	L	67%	60%	+23.7	+21.0
7-Nov	UL-Monroe	121	51-14	W	90%	100%	+23.3	+27.0
14-Nov	Georgia Southern	48	10-45	L	8%	0%	-29.2	-28.5
27-Nov	at Georgia State	87	21-31	L	19%	7%	-9.2	-9.0
5-Dec	at UL-Lafayette	104	41-17	W	91%	100%	+22.6	+26.5

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	25.4	89	29.9	78
Points Per Game	27.9	70	28.3	78

2. Some truly awesome performances toward the end

The primary reason why Troy graded out pretty well despite the 4-8 record is because the peaks were both high and multiple. Appalachian State, Arkansas State, and Georgia Southern, the three best teams in the Sun Belt by far, combined to play five games at the 90th percentile. But Troy did it three times by itself. The Trojans were spectacular in wins over New Mexico State and the two ULs (average score: Trojans 48, Opponent 13) and looked strong in taking Appalachian State to two overtimes in Boone.

Including an easy win over Charleston Southern, Troy looked the part of a top-50 team five times. For a Sun Belt team, that's awfully impressive. The problem, however, was obvious. In the other seven games, Troy's average percentile performance was 15 percent, which is basically a top-110 level. Inconsistency is to be expected with a first-year coach, a sophomore quarterback, etc., but Troy was remarkable in its high highs and low lows. And adding to the "lose a lot, return a lot" situation above, it means you can see whatever you could possibly want to see in this team this year.

If there's a particularly encouraging aspect, however, it's that there more highs toward the end of the season.

• Average Percentile Performance (first 6 games): 25% (record: 1-5 | average score: Opp 30, Troy 20)
• Average Percentile Performance (last 6 games): 61% (record: 3-3 | average score: Troy 36, Opp 26)

The second half of the season still featured a dud against Georgia Southern and a frustrating loss at Georgia State, but as a whole, the Trojans were demonstrably better in the final six games. That's what you want to see in a transition year.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.30	46	IsoPPP+	98.9	72
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	40.2%	84	Succ. Rt. +	96.4	87
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	31.2	98	Def. FP+	33.2	116
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.4	73	Redzone S&P+	94.7	98
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	18.2		ACTUAL	19	+0.8

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	102	79	87	72
RUSHING	118	112	103	117
PASSING	48	59	70	57
Standard Downs		60	77	57
Passing Downs		101	84	108

Q1 Rk	54	1st Down Rk	87
Q2 Rk	108	2nd Down Rk	65
Q3 Rk	62	3rd Down Rk	67
Q4 Rk	124

3. Hitting the brakes

Neal Brown did nothing to change his pass-happy reputation in his first year as a head coach. Led by Brown and co-coordinators Kenny Edenfield (Blakeney's final offensive coordinator at Troy) and Matt Moore (former offensive line coach for Mike Leach and Tommy Tuberville at Texas Tech), the Trojans ran just 49 percent of the time on standard downs (118th in FBS) and 30 percent on passing downs (54th). That's not Leachian, especially on passing downs, but it's easily on the pass-heavy side of the scale.

Still, there was an element of conservatism at play here. Troy hit the brakes from a tempo standpoint, ranking just 117th in Adj. Tempo and averaging a nearly Bielema-esque 66.6 plays per game. (That's actually unfair -- Bret Bielema's Arkansas averaged 68 plays per game.)

At first glance, it appears the slow tempo might have been an attempt at protection. Troy appeared to have only one running back it trusted, and only one receiver averaged more than four targets per game. Plus, the line was a juggled mess, with eight different players starting at least one game and only two starting all 12.

It's hard to go full-speed when you don't think you have the pieces to do it. And judging by the diminishing returns -- Troy ranked 54th in Q1 Q&P+ and 62nd in Q3 but faded to 108th and 124th in the second and fourth quarters, respectively -- it's safe to say the pieces might not have been there.

Tempo probably helped the defense out, too. Depth was a major defensive issue in 2014, and 2015's unit was incredibly bend-don't-break, which meant it was on the field for some pretty long drives.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Brandon Silvers	6'3, 214	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7973	202	330	2378	20	7	61.2%	11	3.2%	6.8
Dallas Tidwell					25	54	298	1	2	46.3%	1	1.8%	5.3
Dontreal Pruitt					20	31	160	0	2	64.5%	6	16.2%	3.4
Sawyer Smith	6'3, 200	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8275
Kaleb Barker	6'2, 200	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7956
Ramsey Rigby	6'0, 190	Fr.	2 stars	0.7600

4. Good Brandon was great Brandon

If your team is almost comically up and down, it would stand to reason that your quarterback probably is, too. And while a QB's best games are always better than his worst (duh), the range between Silvers' good and bad was astronomical:

• Silvers' 5 best games: 98-for-142 (69 percent), 1,332 yards (13.6 per completion), 16 touchdowns, no interceptions, 185.0 passer rating
• Silvers' 6 other games: 104-for-188 (55 percent), 1,046 yards (10.1 per completion), four touchdowns, seven interceptions, 101.6 passer rating

That's quite the split. Silvers was outstanding against NC State, Charleston Southern, New Mexico State, UL-Monroe, and UL-Lafayette and terribly mediocre against everyone else. And his success was usually tied to how well Teddy Rubin was getting open. In the "best" sample, Rubin caught 27 passes for 480 yards and seven touchdowns. In the "other" sample, 36 catches for 399 yards and two scores. If Rubin was making big plays, everything clicked.

Rubin won't make any big plays this year, however, as his eligibility has expired. So has that of Brandon Burks, the only running back to average more than 5.5 carries per game.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Brandon Burks	RB					201	1005	7	5.0	6.5	36.3%	2	1
Jordan Chunn (2014)	RB	6'1, 227	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7900	111	505	6	4.5	3.5	36.9%	3	2
Andre Flakes	RB	5'8, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7893	66	243	3	3.7	4.4	33.3%	5	2
Dontreal Pruitt	QB					30	130	1	4.3	2.5	50.0%	1	1
Brandon Silvers	QB	6'3, 214	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7973	30	104	2	3.5	1.9	43.3%	3	3
Josh Anderson	SUPER	5'11, 253	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8069	10	29	0	2.9	1.1	30.0%	0	0
KE'Marvin Pitts	WR	5'6, 155	Jr.	NR	NR	7	4	0	0.6	0.0	0.0%	0	0
B.J. Smith	RB	5'9, 185	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8194
Jabir Frye	RB	5'7, 170	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7793

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Teddy Ruben	WR-H					85	63	879	74.1%	21.3%	10.3	61.2%	51.8%	1.85
John Johnson	WR-Z	5'11, 189	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7619	46	23	258	50.0%	11.5%	5.6	54.3%	45.7%	1.09
Emanuel Thompson	WR-Z	6'1, 193	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7652	45	28	299	62.2%	11.3%	6.6	68.9%	51.1%	1.23
Brandon Burks	RB					42	29	304	69.0%	10.5%	7.2	57.1%	35.7%	1.83
Jarvis Bentley	WR-X					41	22	325	53.7%	10.3%	7.9	53.7%	46.3%	1.65
Bryan Holmes	WR					37	19	295	51.4%	9.3%	8.0	62.2%	37.8%	1.99
Deondre Douglas	WR	6'1, 200	So.	NR	NR	34	21	172	61.8%	8.5%	5.1	58.8%	41.2%	1.09
Clark Quisenberry	WR-H	6'3, 220	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7706	20	14	138	70.0%	5.0%	6.9	70.0%	55.0%	1.06
K.D. Edenfield	WR					14	9	60	64.3%	3.5%	4.3	64.3%	50.0%	0.69
Ismail Saleem	WR-X	5'8, 165	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7719	13	7	63	53.8%	3.3%	4.8	69.2%	38.5%	0.98
Andre Flakes	RB	5'8, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7893	12	9	49	75.0%	3.0%	4.1	50.0%	16.7%	2.27
Trey Page	WR-H					3	2	19	66.7%	0.8%	6.3	33.3%	33.3%	1.27
Gabe Hill	TE	6'2, 232	So.	NR	0.7000
Nyck Young	WR	6'1, 200	Sr.	NR	0.7500
Richard Hallman	WR	6'2, 201	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8018
Tevaris McCormick	WR	5'10, 180	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7819
Dominic Walker	WR	6'2, 210	Jr.	2 stars	0.8363
Sam Letton	TE	6'3, 235	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8229

5. Efficiency? Check

Thanks to the return of Jordan Chunn, who missed most of last season with a broken collarbone, there is at least experience in the backfield. Burks actually had some burst that neither Chunn nor junior Andre Flakes have shown (and didn't have nearly the fumble problems Flakes had last year), but Chunn is a decent efficiency weapon. And while the line blocking for him does have to replace all-conference center Dalton Bennett, just finding the same five guys to trot out onto the field each week should result in improvement in the blocking category.

Now Silvers just needs some receiving threats. Juniors John Johnson and Emanuel Thompson, sophomore Deondre Douglas, and senior Clark Quisenberry are back. None have been remarkable, but they combined for a 59 percent catch rate and a 48 percent catch rate. Combined with Chunn, that's a foundation for a solid efficiency offense, one that might be able to move the chains more consistently.

But there might not be a known big-play threat on the roster. Thompson's 11.2 yards per catch was the highest among the foursome of receivers. That means there's opportunity for a newcomer or two to break through. JUCO transfers Dominic Walker (a former Auburn signee) and Tevaris McCormick and redshirt freshman Richard Hallman will all have a chance to break into the rotation. If someone can either provide a long ball threat or at least show that they can take a short screen a long way, this offense might have the depth and experience to become far more consistent. But that's a mighty if.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	85.9	2.47	2.42	36.6%	60.7%	25.1%	133.3	4.0%	4.6%
Rank	120	119	116	90	101	120	33	44	15

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Dalton Bennett	C					12	36	2015 2nd All-Sun Belt
Antonio Garcia	LT	6'7, 302	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7478	12	30
Tyler Lassiter	RT	6'6, 302	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7873	9	9
Luke Lawrence	LG					7	7
Johnathan Boring	LT	6'5, 306	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7633	7	7
Xavier Fields	RG	6'5, 329	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7500	6	6
Deontae Crumitie	RG	6'2, 282	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8117	6	6
Jay Dye	C	6'2, 275	So.	NR	NR	1	1
Zach Branner	OL	6'5, 342	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7898	0	0
Damien Kemp	OL	6'6, 294	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8300	0	0
James Peach	OL	6'5, 287	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7983	0	0
Brandon Niccum	OL	6'4, 295	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7700
Tristan Crowder	OL	6'5, 310	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8256

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.14	13	IsoPPP+	104.8	47
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	44.5%	96	Succ. Rt. +	89.6	102
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	30.2	58	Off. FP+	28.0	99
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.2	50	Redzone S&P+	103.5	53
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	15.8		ACTUAL	19.0	+3.2

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	57	73	102	47
RUSHING	90	75	108	43
PASSING	29	82	92	76
Standard Downs		82	121	51
Passing Downs		32	35	39

Q1 Rk	46	1st Down Rk	65
Q2 Rk	83	2nd Down Rk	39
Q3 Rk	69	3rd Down Rk	51
Q4 Rk	22

6. A passive-aggressive defense

If or when Troy was able to force passing downs, the Trojans were devastating. They had a top-40 passing downs defense and a top-25 pass rush, and on third-and-7 or more, opponents completed only 44 percent of their passes. In fact, opponent passer ratings and completion rates fell dramatically from first down to second to third.

Of course, as aggressive as Troy was when down and distance was in its favor, the defense was equally passive on standard downs. Or maybe "ineffective" would be an even better choice of words. The Trojans were in the bottom 10 in standard downs efficiency, making a few disruptive plays but allowing runners to the second level frequently.

Big play prevention was the name of the game until Troy could leverage opponents into tough situations; then, it was time to attack. This has been the m.o. for defensive coordinator Vic Koenning at a lot of stops, and it can work pretty well. And while Troy's defense wasn't spectacular, the Trojans improved from 123rd in Def. S&P+ to 78th. No complaints there.

The next step: being good on every down.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	95.9	3.16	2.84	40.8%	63.3%	20.5%	128.6	8.3%	8.0%
Rank	83	103	35	93	47	56	25	4	53

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Tyler Roberts	BANDIT					11	51.5	7.2%	17.0	7.0	0	1	1	0
Jamal Stadom	DE	6'2, 266	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	12	27.0	3.8%	5.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Trevon Sanders	NG	6'0, 319	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7644	12	24.5	3.4%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Rashad Dillard	DE	6'1, 261	Sr.	NR	NR	12	24.0	3.4%	9.0	7.0	0	0	2	1
Seth Calloway	DT	6'3, 267	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	10	17.0	2.4%	5.0	2.5	0	0	0	0
Lonnie Gosha	DT					12	11.5	1.6%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Garrett Peek	NG	6'3, 281	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7552	12	11.0	1.5%	1.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
D.J. Johnson	DT					8	10.0	1.4%	3.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Sam Lebbie	BANDIT	6'3, 251	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8528	11	9.0	1.3%	2.0	0.5	0	0	0	0
Carnell Simon	DE					9	6.0	0.8%	0.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
Bryan Slater	NG	6'2, 290	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7759	5	1.5	0.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Demone Kemp	DT	6'3, 284	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8300	3	1.5	0.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Antione Barker	DE	6'3, 218	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8094
Uvakeious McGhee	DE	6'4, 239	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7926
Baron Poole II	DT	6'2, 280	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7633
Kelvin Lucky	DE	6'6, 230	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8499
Michael Robinson	DT	6'4, 305	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7941
Terrance Corbett	BANDIT	6'4, 220	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7893

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
William Lloyd	WILL	6'0, 214	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7544	12	59.5	8.3%	9.0	3.5	0	0	1	0
Terris Lewis	MIKE	6'2, 229	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7900	12	52.5	7.4%	5.5	0.0	0	1	3	0
Mitchell Roland	WILL					12	37.0	5.2%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Justin Lucas	MIKE	5'10, 227	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7733	12	32.0	4.5%	6.5	1.5	1	0	0	0
Hunter Reese	LB	6'1, 190	So.	NR	NR	6	3.5	0.5%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Daniel Warren	WILL					8	2.5	0.4%	0.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
Doug Salter	LB	5'11, 226	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8104
Zo Bridges	OLB	6'2, 210	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8451

7. Dillard needs a partner

Experience might help with the every-down thing, but the goal will be to maintain the awesome pass rush while improving against the run. We'll see how possible that is now that Tyler Roberts, one of the better disruptors in the Sun Belt, is gone. Rashad Dillard turned into a lovely Roberts complement with seven sacks, but now he's the main guy by default.

Roberts needs to turn into an every-down threat himself; he made only 15 non-TFL tackles and only two non-sack TFLs, meaning he was either sacking the quarterback or disappearing. Jamal Stadom is decent, but presumptive new bandit end Sam Lebbie has a high bar to clear.

This might be a situation where the pass rush regresses a bit but the effect is minimal because Troy is creating more passing downs with good run defense. Sophomore bowling ball Trevon Sanders could be ready for a nice step forward, and he and undersized/quick Seth Calloway could develop into a nice tandem. And in William Lloyd, Terris Lewis, and Justin Lucas, the Trojans have three active senior linebackers (plus two three-star freshmen) to fit into a two-linebacker formation.

So yeah, Troy might have enough playmakers and heft to defend the run better this time around. We'll see if progress is matched by pass rushing regression.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Montres Kitchens	FS					12	67.0	9.4%	2.5	0	2	2	2	0
LaMarcus Farmer	CB					12	42.5	6.0%	4	0	3	6	0	0
Demetrius Cain	SPEAR	6'1, 215	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	NR	12	36.0	5.0%	2	1	0	4	0	2
Cedarius Rookard	CAT	6'1, 206	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7956	10	35.0	4.9%	0	0	0	1	1	0
Jalen Harris	CB	6'0, 182	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7894	11	30.5	4.3%	2	1	0	1	0	0
JaQuadrian Lewis	CAT	6'1, 192	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7200	12	28.5	4.0%	0.5	0	0	0	0	0
A.J. Smiley	SPEAR	6'3, 203	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7956	12	22.0	3.1%	1	0	0	2	0	0
Jalen Rountree	CB	5'11, 171	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7659	9	20.5	2.9%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Josh Marshall	CB	5'11, 183	Sr.	NR	NR	12	17.5	2.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Darrin Reddick	S					12	15.0	2.1%	1.5	1	0	2	0	1
Robert Johnson	FS	6'0, 189	So.	NR	NR	12	7.0	1.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Dondrell Harris	CAT	6'0, 197	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7806	9	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Kamryn Melton (Auburn)	CB	5'10, 185	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8656
Melvin Tyus	S	5'10, 204	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7993
Kris Weatherspoon	S	6'2, 195	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7785
Jai Nunn-Liddell	CB	6'3, 185	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7706

8. Good news, bad news

Experience might matter in the secondary more than anywhere else on the defense, and in theory Troy's got a lot of it now. Seven returnees recorded at least 17.5 tackles last year, plus Auburn transfer Kamryn Melton and JUCO safety Kris Weatherspoon join the mix.

The problem is playmaking. Two departed players -- safety Montres Kitchens and LaMarcus Farmer -- combined for 6.5 tackles for loss and 13 passes defensed last year, while the aforementioned seven returnees combined for 5.5 and nine, respectively.

Farmer appeared most capable of pouncing on wayward passes thrown by harried quarterbacks. If QBs aren't feeling quite as much pressure, and if the corners aren't quite as successfully aggressive, it's not hard to see the pass defense stumbling a bit.

So basically, experience is a major plus for Troy's defense this year, and that usually leads to improvement. But three of probably the Trojans' four or five best playmakers are gone, and that's a red flag.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Ryan Kay	6'2, 207	Sr.	61	41.9	7	16	16	52.5%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Jed Solomon			62	61.8	36	0	58.1%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Jed Solomon			39-40	13-16	81.3%	2-3	66.7%
Ryan Kay	6'2, 207	Sr.	0-0	1-1	100.0%	0-1	0.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Teddy Ruben	KR			24	18.6	0
Deondre Douglas	KR	6'1, 200	So.	4	17.0	0
Teddy Ruben	PR			16	13.8	1
LaMarcus Farmer	PR			3	4.7	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	78
Field Goal Efficiency	79
Punt Return Success Rate	34
Kick Return Success Rate	115
Punt Success Rate	54
Kickoff Success Rate	22

9. Starting over on special teams

Troy's special teams was neither plus nor minus in 2015 -- Jed Solomon's kickoffs were strong, and Teddy Ruben was an excellent punt return man, but these strengths were offset by Ruben's iffy kick returns and Solomon's less-than-perfect place-kicking inside of 40 yards.

None of this matters, however, because both Solomon and Rubin are gone. Solid punter Ryan Kay might be in line to take over place-kicking duties, but there will be new players in most roles. That has to be a concern.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
3-Sep	Austin Peay	NR	34.5	98%
10-Sep	at Clemson	3	-36.2	2%
17-Sep	at Southern Miss	72	-12.8	23%
24-Sep	New Mexico State	117	8.4	69%
1-Oct	at Idaho	108	-0.8	48%
15-Oct	Georgia State	105	4.2	60%
20-Oct	at South Alabama	115	0.8	52%
5-Nov	Massachusetts	127	12.1	76%
12-Nov	Appalachian State	59	-8.6	31%
17-Nov	Arkansas State	89	-1.4	47%
26-Nov	at Texas State	120	2.1	55%
3-Dec	at Georgia Southern	52	-16.4	17%
Projected wins: 5.8

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-27.1% (108)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	107 / 110
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	0 / -2.4
2015 TO Luck/Game	+1.0
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	55% (57%, 52%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	5.3 (-1.3)

10. Do the close games turn around?

Late-season surges are good signs of future growth, as long as the reasons for the surge come back the next year. I honestly can't tell if that's the case here. The overall experience level is a strength, and could give Troy a serious chance at a top-four finish in the Sun Belt. But it's tough to be completely optimistic when so many of your proven playmakers are among the few starters gone.

Assuming Troy doesn't maintain the top-50 form that it had for most of the last half of the season, this season will be, like 2015, decided by close games. Going 2-1 in one-possession games would have meant a 6-6 finish for the Trojans, and Troy heads into this year given between a 47 and 69 percent chance of winning in six games (and between 31 and 76 in nine). If the offense has just a little bit more staying power and can make a few more plays late in halves, that might be enough to flip Troy's record from 4-8 to 8-4. But the burden of proof is on a new set of playmakers to turn potential into production.

My gut says this will be a pretty fun year in Troy. Experience trumps star power pretty often. Still, there are some ifs that need to turn into whens. The future appears bright with an energetic staff and improving recruiting. But 2016's brightness is still a bit unclear.