With transfers and an aggressive identity, Arkansas State is playing for keeps

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1. Playing for keeps

It's really fun to talk about the Sun Belt's new kids. During the conference realignment frenzy of a few years ago, C-USA replaced what it had lost with long-term plays and the biggest possible markets. It plucked away some Sun Belt schools, added some startups, and made a lot of moves that a) made sense in theory and b) did nothing to help the actual on-field product in the short-term.

The Sun Belt, meanwhile, aimed for quality. In replacing what C-USA had plucked away, the SBC went out and nabbed Appalachian State and Georgia Southern, two of FCS' recent dynasties. Both programs stumbled as they got ready to make the jump, but both immediately improved and thrived once in FBS. The result: In terms of S&P+ averages, the Sun Belt was actually a better conference than Conference USA last year.

But as good as Georgia Southern and Appalachian State were, neither won the league. Arkansas State did. Blake Anderson's Red Wolves stumbled to a 1-3 start in non-conference play, then hit the turbo button. They were the steadiest team in Sun Belt action, thumping Appalachian State in Boone and scoring at least 37 points in every conference game. Their November run was particularly impressive, so impressive that Vegas couldn't keep up: In four November games, ASU overachieved compared to the spread by an average of 16.6 points per game (and overachieved S&P+ by an average of 22.2).

And then they went out and landed not only the third-best recruiting class in the conference (per the 247Sports Composite), but also a boatload of intriguing transfers: former Oklahoma quarterback Justice Hansen, former Alabama defensive lineman Dee Liner, former all-star TCU return man Cameron Echols-Luper, etc.

Anderson is playing for keeps in Jonesboro. Not only is he actually still in town -- from 2010-14, ASU had a different coach each year, so this is actually a rather impressive note -- but he's putting together what will probably be, on paper, the most athletic team in the conference. Talk about the newbies all you want, but ASU's got the crown and seems intent on keeping it.

Almost every year in my Arkansas State preview, I talk about ASU's previously announced intentions to become the "Boise State of the South." That was a particularly easy comparison to make when the Red Wolves hired former Boise State offensive coordinator Bryan Harsin in 2013. But by hiring Anderson to replace Harsin (when Harsin left for, predictably, BSU), they might have found someone who is willing to stick around long enough to realize this ideal. ASU has upgraded its facilities and is evidently giving Anderson enough resources to land some high-caliber athletes. It's going to be particularly interesting to see what he might build here if he stays long enough.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 9-4 | Adj. Record: 9-4 | Final F/+ Rk: 71 | Final S&P+ Rk: 79
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
Sept. 5	at USC	17	6-55	L	1%	0%	-31.9	-22.0
Sept. 12	Missouri	75	20-27	L	22%	28%	+6.9	+3.5
Sept. 19	Missouri State	N/A	70-7	W	86%	100%	+38.5
Sept. 26	at Toledo	20	7-37	L	9%	0%	-22.4	-22.5
Oct. 3	Idaho	114	49-35	W	67%	97%	+0.2	-6.0
Oct. 13	at South Alabama	102	49-31	W	58%	93%	+13.2	+13.0
Oct. 20	UL-Lafayette	104	37-27	W	65%	94%	+4.6	+4.0
Oct. 31	Georgia State	87	48-34	W	70%	93%	+0.5	-4.5
Nov. 5	at Appalachian State	42	40-27	W	69%	74%	+29.2	+23.5
Nov. 14	at UL-Monroe	121	59-21	W	65%	98%	+23.4	+23.5
Nov. 28	at New Mexico State	118	52-28	W	62%	97%	+12.8	+7.0
Dec. 5	Texas State	116	55-17	W	84%	100%	+23.4	+12.5
Dec. 19	vs. Louisiana Tech	57	28-47	L	12%	1%	-13.7	-17.0

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	29.2	61	30.2	81
Points Per Game	40.0	12	30.2	86

2. Consistency kills

Technically, Georgia Southern had more great performances than Arkansas State did, hitting the 85th percentile or higher in seven games while ASU did so only twice. Appalachian State hit that mark three times. So did Troy, for that matter.

But all three of those teams also laid eggs in conference play. And after a bumpy ride through the non-conference portion of the schedule, ASU was stunningly consistent. In their first seven Sun Belt games, the Red Wolves were between the 58th and 70th percentile each time. And in the eighth, with a chance to claim the conference title outright, they jumped to 84 percent. This team figured out what it wanted to become early in the year, then became it during the important games.

• Five non-conference games (including the bowl):
  Average percentile performance: 26 percent (~top 95) | Yards per play: Opp 6.1, ASU 4.9
• Eight conference games:
  Average percentile performance: 68 percent (~top 40) | Yards per play: ASU 6.4, Opp 5.5

There's something to be said for using non-conference games as a testing ground and treating conference play as the real season. We don't completely know that's what happened here -- for all we know, the timing of the improvement was purely coincidental, and it certainly bears mentioning that Appalachian State is the only top-75 opponent ASU actually played well against. This could have also been an athleticism thing, where if the Red Wolves had a speed advantage, they were unstoppable (and if they didn't, they had no answers). But whether it was supposed to work out this way or not, it did, and the Red Wolves ended up with their third nine-win season in five years.

If ASU is to pull that off for a fourth time in six years, however, some new pieces will have to very quickly click into place.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.23	80	IsoPPP+	102.9	56
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	44.4%	32	Succ. Rt. +	103.5	58
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	26.3	6	Def. FP+	30.1	77
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.5	61	Redzone S&P+	101.8	68
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	24.8		ACTUAL	26	+1.2

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	37	56	58	56
RUSHING	15	25	30	26
PASSING	85	83	93	78
Standard Downs		51	53	56
Passing Downs		63	76	66

Q1 Rk	64	1st Down Rk	58
Q2 Rk	77	2nd Down Rk	67
Q3 Rk	57	3rd Down Rk	31
Q4 Rk	48

3. A change ... sort of

Fredi Knighten's limitations were pretty clear by the time his career ended. He was only so much of a passer and wasn't going to be able to carry the offense without getting his legs involved. But ASU's run game was awfully dangerous with him at the helm, and offensive coordinator Walt Bell was able to craft a high-tempo, run-first offense around his skills.

Maryland hired Bell away, however, but Anderson was able to lure another well-regarded spread guy to town: former MTSU offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner. Under Faulkner, MTSU's tempo was basically the same, but he employed pass-first tendencies and leaned heavily on his quarterback on passing downs.

With the turnover ASU is experiencing at quarterback and in the skill positions, now wouldn't be the most awkward time for a change in identity, but there's no question that the Red Wolves will be dealing with major continuity issues this year.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Fredi Knighten					136	251	1835	19	9	54.2%	15	5.6%	6.3
James Tabary	6'2, 195	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7926	65	105	788	4	6	61.9%	10	8.7%	6.2
Cameron Birse	6'2, 213	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7917	4	4	37	0	0	100.0%
D.J. Pearson	6'2, 190	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8458
Justice Hansen	6'4, 220	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8530
Logan Bonner	6'1, 200	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7895

4. Everything depends on the quarterback

With the quarterbacks on hand to replace Knighten, I'm doubting Faulkner will have to stray from his pass-happy ways. Sophomore James Tabary (last year's backup) and junior Cameron Birse were both regarded as pro-style guys in high school, as was Justice Hansen when he was a four-star OU commit from Edmond (Okla.).

Tabary was hit-or-miss in an extended audition last year, completing a higher percentage of his passes than Knighten but struggling mightily with picks, sacks (as freshmen sometimes do). One figures that the winner of a battle between these three, plus redshirt freshman D.J. Pearson and incoming freshman Logan Bonner, will produce a solid signal caller. But that's still only an assumption until it's proven correct. [Update: Tabary transferred to McNeese State this offseason.]

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Michael Gordon	RB					167	1063	9	6.4	6.6	43.1%	3	2
Fredi Knighten	QB					123	544	5	4.4	3.8	44.7%	5	2
Warren Wand	RB	5'5, 174	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7959	117	707	5	6.0	6.3	43.6%	2	1
Johnston White	RB	5'11, 180	Jr.	NR	NR	99	616	14	6.2	6.7	41.4%	1	1
Logan Moragne	RB	5'9, 195	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7889	20	203	1	10.2	12.6	50.0%	1	1
J.D. McKissic	SLOT					18	112	0	6.2	6.1	44.4%	2	2
James Tabary	QB	6'2, 195	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7926	8	-15	0	-1.9	0.0	0.0%	5	1
DeKeathan Williams	RB	6'1, 212	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	NR	6	31	0	5.2	1.3	66.7%	0	0
Tyler Trosin	WR					4	4	0	1.0	0.0	0.0%	1	0
Terrance Hollingsworth	RB	5'9, 195	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7785
Brandon Byner	RB	5'11, 177	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000
Jamal Jones	RB	5'9, 185	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8013
Armond Weh-Weh	RB	6'0, 205	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8300
Torrance Marable	RB	5'9, 180	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7793

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
J.D. McKissic	SLOT					65	52	525	80.0%	19.8%	8.1	61.5%	64.6%	1.12
Tres Houston	WR					55	36	615	65.5%	16.7%	11.2	50.9%	60.0%	1.81
Dijon Paschal	WR	6'1, 196	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8315	50	28	541	56.0%	15.2%	10.8	58.0%	48.0%	2.11
Tyler Trosin	WR					23	8	113	34.8%	7.0%	4.9	47.8%	34.8%	1.29
Warren Wand	RB	5'5, 174	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7959	22	18	135	81.8%	6.7%	6.1	54.5%	40.9%	1.48
Michael Gordon	RB					20	13	81	65.0%	6.1%	4.1	60.0%	30.0%	1.44
Darion Griswold	TE					19	13	187	68.4%	5.8%	9.8	63.2%	57.9%	1.70
Booker Mays	WR					17	7	74	41.2%	5.2%	4.4	64.7%	35.3%	1.22
Chris Murray	SLOT	5'9, 178	Sr.	NR	NR	16	11	187	68.8%	4.9%	11.7	75.0%	56.2%	2.20
Blake Mack	WR	6'3, 200	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7959	16	7	86	43.8%	4.9%	5.4	50.0%	25.0%	1.82
Warren Leapheart	TE	6'5, 242	Sr.	NR	0.7700	11	5	77	45.5%	3.3%	7.0	45.5%	45.5%	1.20
Sterling Stowers	WR	5'10, 198	Sr.	NR	NR	7	5	51	71.4%	2.1%	7.3	71.4%	71.4%	0.95
Darveon Brown	WR	5'11, 176	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8253
Omar Bayless	WR	6'3, 190	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8133
Jaylon Marshall	WR	6'2, 190	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7963
Kendall Sanders	WR	6'0, 187	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9492
Cameron Echols-Luper	WR	6'0, 190	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8588
Christian Booker	WR	5'11, 185	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8389
Justin McInnis	WR	6'6, 190	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8530
Brandon Bowling	WR	5'9, 168	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7793

5. Reinforcements!

Whoever wins the quarterback job will have a hell of an offensive line blocking for him. ASU returns two all-conference linemen (guard Colton Jackson, tackle Jemar Clark) and five other players with starting experience from last year's unit. ASU struggled with glitches up front -- 91st in stuff rate, 94th in passing downs sack rate -- but some of that had to do with injury and shuffling, and some had to do with Knighten's tendency to scramble around and try to make something happen. If the injury bug is at least a little bit benevolent, the line should be fine. And that might be the single biggest asset a new quarterback can have.

The next-biggest asset: having guys who can catch the ball and/or run with it. ASU might have them, but the two-deep at running back, receiver and tight end is going to look completely different this year.

Most of the ASU names college football fans have come to know in recent years are finally gone, from Knighten, to explosive running back Michael Gordon, to wobbly (in a good way) slot receiver JD McKissic, to deep threat Tres Houston.

This is a lot of breakthrough talent to lose when you're not signing top-50 recruiting classes. But there's hope in both youngsters and transfer. Sophomore Warren Wand and junior Johnston White nearly matched Gordon's productivity last year, combining to rush 216 times for 1,323 yards and 19 touchdowns and producing similar rates of efficiency and explosiveness. And a couple of recent three-star recruits -- redshirt freshman Jamal Jones and JUCO transfer Armond Weh-Weh -- wait for their opportunity.

And despite losing some wonderful talent at the receiver position, it's impossible not to be a little bit excited about the replacements. The return of junior Dijon Paschal helps. In two seasons, he has caught 66 passes and averaged a stellar 10.9 yards per target. He has been basically a co-No. 1 target with McKissic and Houston, and he could be primed for a big year.

Beyond Paschal, there is almost no proven talent but a whole lot of potential. Texas transfer Kendall Sanders is a former four-star recruit, and TCU transfer Cameron Echols-Luper was an absurdly impressive return man two years ago. JUCOs Christian Booker and Justin McInnis also join the mix, giving the Red Wolves an experienced, inexperienced unit.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	104.4	2.88	3.18	42.6%	66.0%	21.4%	93.2	3.0%	9.2%
Rank	46	66	71	23	65	91	72	24	94

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Colton Jackson	RG	6'4, 276	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7826	13	39	2015 1st All-Sun Belt
Jemar Clark	LT	6'6, 304	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8494	8	20	2015 1st All-Sun Belt
Devin Mondie	C	6'5, 291	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7749	11	23
Austin Moreton	LG	6'1, 318	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	13	14
Joseph Bacchus	RT	6'5, 275	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7852	11	11
Daniel Keith	LT	6'2, 275	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7835	5	5
Kyle Harris	LT					2	3
Brandon Berg	C	6'2, 276	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7585	2	2
Steven Stevens	LG					0	0
Cameron Davis	OL	6'4, 280	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8281
Dalton Ford	OL	6'4, 295	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8081
Jamal Fontenot	RG	6'4, 300	So.	2 stars (5.3)	NR

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.48	124	IsoPPP+	97.6	74
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	35.5%	15	Succ. Rt. +	107.9	40
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	34.7	2	Off. FP+	30.4	55
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.6	88	Redzone S&P+	94.3	90
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	25.5		ACTUAL	34.0	+8.5

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	89	58	40	74
RUSHING	44	68	61	75
PASSING	114	58	22	72
Standard Downs		74	48	94
Passing Downs		42	37	45

Q1 Rk	38	1st Down Rk	58
Q2 Rk	90	2nd Down Rk	102
Q3 Rk	73	3rd Down Rk	69
Q4 Rk	53

6. Symmetry

There's a chance the offensive identity could change with a new offensive coordinator, even if it's basically just a shift in how the ball is distributed. But one assumes the Red Wolves will still move quickly and aggressively on offense while maintaining a perfectly symmetrical identity on defense.

ASU attacked you in 2015. The Red Wolves had no interest in a bend-don't-break routine. They created havoc plays and three-and-outs, and they were willing to give up big plays in the process. (And they certainly gave up big plays: 78 gains of 20-plus yards, 115th in the country.)

In this regard, Arkansas State was like Arizona State in that a single identity pervaded on every unit. And assuming the new pieces on offense click quickly enough to move the ball relatively well, the aggressive defense should have the experience and depth to do some nasty things.

The Red Wolves return 10 of their top 12 defensive linemen, six of seven linebackers, and, though three starters are gone in the secondary, eight other experienced pieces return. A large portion of the two-deep is back. Trade one big play for one more havoc play per game, and ASU could improve from 81st in Def. S&P+ into at least the 60s or so.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	104.8	2.51	2.77	34.9%	65.5%	23.0%	111.1	5.1%	7.7%
Rank	43	17	27	29	59	26	46	62	61

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Ja'Von Rolland-Jones	DE	6'2, 224	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	13	30.0	4.4%	12.5	8.5	1	1	4	0
Waylon Roberson	NG	6'2, 338	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7867	13	26.0	3.8%	2.5	0.0	0	0	1	0
Chris Stone	DE					12	23.5	3.4%	7.5	1.5	1	2	0	2
Robert Mondie	DT					12	18.0	2.6%	4.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Chase Robison	BANDIT	6'4, 234	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8298	13	13.5	2.0%	7.5	2.0	0	0	0	0
Chuks Ota	NG	6'2, 285	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8133	12	10.0	1.5%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Caleb Caston	DE	6'2, 210	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7533	13	9.0	1.3%	2.0	0.5	0	1	0	0
Darrius Rosser	DT	6'3, 284	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	11	8.0	1.2%	6.5	3.5	0	1	0	0
Jake Swalley	DT	6'2, 292	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7919	13	6.5	1.0%	3.5	2.5	0	0	0	0
Donovan Ransom	NG	6'1, 270	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7826	6	5.5	0.8%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Griffin Riggs	BANDIT	6'3, 235	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8302	13	3.5	0.5%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Clifford Thomas	DT	6'2, 280	Jr.	NR	NR	5	3.0	0.4%	0.5	0.5	0	1	0	0
Chris Odom	DE	6'3, 234	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7783	11	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Marcus Hudson	DE	6'4, 265	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7611	8	1.5	0.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
E.J. Sutton	DT	6'3, 275	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7659
Javier Carbonell	NG	6'2, 285	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8000
T.J. Harris	DE	6'2, 225	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7793
Dee Liner	DE	6'3, 295	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9756
Dajon Emory	DE	6'3, 255	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8000
William Bradley-King	DE	6'4, 240	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7859

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Khari Lain	WILL	5'10, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8015	13	64.5	9.5%	7.5	2.0	1	2	0	0
Xavier Woodson-Luster	MIKE	6'1, 214	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8094	10	56.0	8.2%	5.5	1.0	2	3	2	0
Austin Copeland	WILL					11	28.5	4.2%	4.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Quanterio Heath	MIKE	6'2, 210	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8138	13	23.5	3.4%	1.0	0.5	1	0	0	0
Tajhea Chambers	WILL	6'2, 215	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8137	2	8.0	1.2%	2.5	2.5	0	0	0	0
Jarrod Chandler	LB	6'2, 205	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7733	12	7.5	1.1%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Ben Gallagher	LB	6'3, 215	Jr.	NR	NR	9	2.5	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Avery Johnson	LB	6'2, 210	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8023
Kyle Wilson	LB	6'0, 226	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7600
Vada King	LB	6'1, 230	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7885

7. Speed, speed, speed

This front seven should be so much fun to watch. Ends Ja'Von Rolland-Jones and Chase Robison combined for 20 tackles for loss (Rolland-Jones also forced four fumbles), Waylon Roberson is a monstrous nose tackle, all the second stringers are back, and now Dee Liner and three-star JUCO Dajon Emory join the party. The Red Wolves were leaky in the red zone, but they stopped nearly one quarter of rushes in the backfield and created decent push in short-yardage. And if Liner in particular can add a little more heft to go with the play-making, all the better.

Meanwhile, the Red Wolves have the deepest set of linebackers in the conference. Khari Lain and Xavier Woodson-Luster were solid, disruptive forces, and then-freshman Tajhea Chambers was flashing major playmaking potential before getting hurt against Missouri.

Six is an issue at linebacker -- of the seven returnees listed, the biggest is 215 pounds -- but the Red Wolves seem to have enough size at tackle to offset some of that. Meanwhile, the speed is top-notch. ASU had a top-30 havoc rate last year, and it's not hard to see that ranking improving.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Cody Brown	SS	6'2, 204	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8100	13	52.5	7.7%	2.5	0	3	9	0	0
Rocky Hayes	CB					13	41.5	6.1%	2.5	0	6	4	0	0
Chris Humes	FS	5'11, 207	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8510	13	41.0	6.0%	0.5	0	2	6	0	0
Money Hunter	SS	6'1, 193	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7778	13	35.5	5.2%	1	0	3	4	1	0
Charleston Girley	NB					10	29.0	4.3%	2.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Justin Clifton	NB	6'0, 207	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7883	10	23.5	3.4%	4.5	1	1	1	1	0
Blaise Taylor	CB	5'9, 170	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8251	11	21.5	3.2%	1	0	1	7	0	0
Jamaris Hart	CB	5'9, 163	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7956	13	20.5	3.0%	1.5	1.5	1	6	0	0
Nehemiah Wagner	DB	6'0, 170	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8220	13	11.5	1.7%	0	0	1	3	0	0
Bo Sentimore	FS	6'0, 181	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7956	2	8.0	1.2%	0	0	1	0	0	0
Brandon Byner	CB	5'11, 177	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	6	7.0	1.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Raziel Velgis	DB					8	5.0	0.7%	0	0	1	0	0	0
Charles Grant	FS	5'11, 180	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8026	5	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Sterling Wright	NB	6'2, 215	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000
Mark Johnson	DB	6'2, 180	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7544
Landon James-Wilson	CB	6'0, 180	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7885
Chauncey Mason	FS	5'9, 190	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8074
Ben Sukut	S	6'1, 185	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8274
B.J. Edmonds	S	6'0, 200	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8322

8. Depth in the back?

Despite losing starting safety Bo Sentimore in the second game, ASU still ranked 22nd in Passing Success Rate+, allowing just a 54 percent completion rate and picking off 26 passes. There was risk with the reward -- opponents also averaged 13.1 yards per completion -- but ASU at least had enough athletes to do some damage.

There might be a question of depth this year. Eleven defensive backs recorded at least seven tackles last year, and eight return, which is good. But losing corner Rocky Hayes and safety Charleston Girley hurts at least a little bit. Hayes was particularly active, and Girley had solid size and speed for the nickel.

Last year's backups certainly showed potential, though, so it's hard to worry too much. Justin Clifton was bigger than Girley and made more plays, and corners Blaise Taylor and Jamaris Hart combined to defense 15 passes. Plus, Bo Sentimore returns -- he began the year as starter but lasted only two games before injuring his ankle.

Combine those players with returning seniors Cody Brown and Money Hunter, and the starting five in the back should be sound, and it appears this unit will roll eight to 10 deep again.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Luke Ferguson			72	42.7	6	23	33	77.8%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Luke Ferguson			93	62.3	37	3	39.8%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
JD Houston	5'11, 165	Sr.	43-45	11-12	91.7%	1-2	50.0%
Drew White	5'8, 195	Sr.	19-20	0-2	0.0%	1-1	100.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
J.D. McKissic	KR			25	26.2	1
Tyler Trosin	KR			5	10.8	0
Blaise Taylor	PR	5'9, 170	Jr.	24	13.4	1
Chris Murray	PR	5'9, 178	Sr.	10	9.1	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	47
Field Goal Efficiency	80
Punt Return Success Rate	23
Kick Return Success Rate	7
Punt Success Rate	73
Kickoff Success Rate	26

9. A great return man leaves, and a great return man steps in

It really seemed like McKissic spent about nine years in an ASU uniform. He averaged 27.3 yards per kick return in his lengthy career, and losing a guy of that caliber would be a concern ... if a potentially strong return man weren't moving in. Cameron Echols-Luper doesn't have a ton of kick return experience, but in two years at TCU, he averaged 11.4 yards per punt return, and between Echols-Luper and junior Blaise Taylor, the odds are good that ASU will have a good kick return man.

If returns don't regress, this is should be a good special teams unit. JD Houston was mostly fine in place-kicking, and while Luke Ferguson was a solid kickoffs guy, his punt efficiency was at least replaceable.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
3-Sep	Toledo	58	-3.8	41%
10-Sep	at Auburn	24	-19.6	13%
17-Sep	at Utah State	73	-7.8	33%
24-Sep	Central Arkansas	NR	19.5	87%
5-Oct	Georgia Southern	52	-4.6	40%
15-Oct	South Alabama	115	12.7	77%
29-Oct	UL-Monroe	125	16.3	83%
3-Nov	at Georgia State	105	2.1	55%
12-Nov	New Mexico State	117	13.3	78%
17-Nov	at Troy	103	1.4	53%
26-Nov	at UL-Lafayette	106	3.4	58%
3-Dec	at Texas State	120	6.9	66%
Projected wins: 6.8

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-0.6% (61)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	85 / 85
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	8 / 0.7
2015 TO Luck/Game	+2.8
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	53% (37%, 69%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	8.8 (0.2)

10. Seriously, just find a quarterback

S&P+ projections use recruiting rankings but don't take transfers into account. If they did, ASU would almost certainly be projected higher than 89th heading into next season.

But the biggest reason for this conservative projection is the lost production at quarterback and receiver. And knowing what we know about incoming transfers at QB and WR, it's not hard to see some pieces clicking and ASU playing at a level much higher than 89th. And if ASU plays at even a No. 75 level or so, the Red Wolves would be pretty serious Sun Belt contenders once again.

As it stands, ASU is given at least a 50 percent chance of winning in seven games and at least 40 percent in two more. And the team will have a chance to explode out of the gates in conference play -- four of the first SBC games are at home before a strange set of three (winnable) road trips to finish up. Beat Georgia Southern on Oct. 5, and the Red Wolves will likely be conference favorites into mid-November.

Arkansas State has a plan and appears to be implementing it well. The Red Wolves might have the fastest team in the conference, and if a couple of new pieces gel quickly, this could be a damn strong team. Commitment and good hires get you pretty far in college football, even at the mid-major level, and ASU is proof of that.