Terry Bowden brought Akron football back to life, but now's the hard part

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1. Great! Now do it again!

The Zips have enough potential and experience to step forward in 2015. There are plenty of questions, but the upside is there.

Akron was incredibly unstable from week to week in 2014, and Bowden has to prove that was because of inexperience and not the coaching staff.

Still, between the exciting batch of transfers and the ease of the schedule, I would be shocked if Akron wasn't bowling. Bowden has done a solid job of raising expectations within the hapless program he inherited, and I'm betting 2015 is when he reaps rewards.

-- The 2015 Akron guide

In college football, a crystal bowl of potatoes -- the prize for winning the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl -- signifies rise and redemption.

• In 2011, Ohio scored in the last minute to beat Utah State, securing the program's first bowl win.
• In 2012, Utah State pummeled Toledo to cap an 11-win season, a top-20 finish, and a "We've arrived" declaration. After decades in the wilderness, the Aggies have now been bowling for five straight years.
• In 2013, San Diego State handled Buffalo to win its first bowl since Brady Hoke left. It confirmed the potential of the Rocky Long era. Two years later, the Aztecs won 11 games.
• In 2014, Air Force and head coach Troy Calhoun completed the most stunning turnaround of the year, beating Western Michigan to finish 10-3 a year after going 2-10.
• In 2015, it was Bowden's turn to hold potatoes aloft. In the fourth year of his rebuild, he led the Zips to Boise, and they held off Utah State for the crown.

You could see the progress, especially on defense. Bowden and his seasoned staff (which features his father's former assistant at Florida State, Chuck Amato) needed a year to get situated but improved dramatically on defense in Year 2. After a stagnant third year, they added more talent to a loaded defense and broke into the Def. S&P+ top 40.

The offense was still limited, which rendered Akron only a MAC-average team. But the defense was enough to drive the Zips to eight wins -- they were 0-3 against teams in the S&P+ top 50 and 8-2 against everybody else.

Bowden needed four years to pull this off when the average successful rebuild breaks through a bit earlier. But he got there. And now he has to do it again.

Akron must attempt to repeat last year's success without its top two running backs, two of three receivers, all five starting offensive linemen, half of the defensive line two-deep, all three starting linebackers, and three of the top six defensive backs.

The defense will still have a pair of stud ends and aggressive options in the secondary; the offense boasts quite a bit of quarterback experience and an exciting transfer.

Bowden is now responsible for 50 percent of Akron's bowl appearances and 100 percent of its bowl wins. The Zips had fallen into a deep pit when he arrived; after winning 20 games from 2003-05, they won 12 from 2007-09 and three from 2010-12. Getting to eight wins and a top-80 spot in S&P+ is a magnificent accomplishment.The only thing harder than creating success is maintaining it.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 8-5 | Adj. Record: 7-6 | Final F/+ Rk: 84 | Final S&P+ Rk: 80
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
5-Sep	at Oklahoma	4	3-41	L	9%	0%	-12.3	-6.5
12-Sep	Pittsburgh	46	7-24	L	19%	10%	+1.4	-4.0
19-Sep	Savannah State	N/A	52-9	W	75%	100%	+15.9
26-Sep	at UL-Lafayette	104	35-14	W	77%	99%	+31.7	+29.5
3-Oct	Ohio	69	12-14	L	34%	35%	+3.3	+1.0
10-Oct	at Eastern Michigan	122	47-21	W	72%	99%	+24.0	+18.5
17-Oct	at Bowling Green	25	10-59	L	5%	0%	-40.9	-37.0
31-Oct	Central Michigan	67	6-14	L	19%	9%	-7.6	-5.0
7-Nov	at Massachusetts	100	17-13	W	61%	92%	+5.2	+6.5
14-Nov	at Miami-OH	113	37-28	W	59%	95%	-0.2	+2.0
21-Nov	Buffalo	98	42-21	W	70%	95%	+16.5	+17.0
27-Nov	Kent State	109	20-0	W	89%	100%	+4.7	+9.5
22-Dec	vs. Utah State	53	23-21	W	38%	42%	+10.0	+9.0

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	22.4	108	24.1	39
Points Per Game	23.9	99	21.5	23

2. Little room for doubt

Bowl game aside, Akron did its fans a favor by rarely leaving the outcome in doubt, one way or the other. The Zips scored just 7.6 points per game in their five losses, keeping two games close but showing minimal reason for hope. Meanwhile, in their seven regular season wins, they averaged 35.7 points per game and won only once by fewer than nine points.

Just about everybody plays better in wins than in losses, but Akron's spread of outcomes was pretty incredible.

• 7 regular season wins
  Average percentile performance: 72% (~top 35) | Average win expectancy: 97% | Yards per play: UA 6.2, Opp 4.4 (+1.8)
• 5 regular season losses
  Average percentile performance: 17% (~top 105) | Average win expectancy: 11% | Yards per play: Opp 5.5, UA 3.7 (-1.8)

When the offense was able to bring something to the table, the Zips usually rolled. But that was infrequent. And while things got a little better when quarterback Thomas Woodson took over in Week 3, the downs were still quite down. Meanwhile, the defense mostly held things together, allowing more than 24 points just three times. But they managed to lose twice while allowing just 14 points; that should almost never happen.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.26	68	IsoPPP+	91.0	100
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	38.0%	106	Succ. Rt. +	92.6	104
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	28.5	41	Def. FP+	30.3	82
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.3	84	Redzone S&P+	100.2	75
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	17.2		ACTUAL	18	+0.8

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	104	103	104	100
RUSHING	75	116	111	121
PASSING	97	67	69	67
Standard Downs		76	72	70
Passing Downs		118	119	114

Q1 Rk	103	1st Down Rk	113
Q2 Rk	90	2nd Down Rk	71
Q3 Rk	91	3rd Down Rk	117
Q4 Rk	113

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Thomas Woodson	6'1, 240	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8101	162	307	2202	16	11	52.8%	11	3.5%	6.7
Tra'Von Chapman	6'1, 216	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8931	10	35	157	1	1	28.6%	3	7.9%	3.1
Kyle Pohl					11	27	135	0	0	40.7%	1	3.6%	4.6
Matthew Hoyer	6'4, 210	Sr.	NR	NR
Kato Nelson	6'1, 195	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8327

3. Woodson brings stability

Akron still had a couple of duds after Thomas Woodson took over, but there was no question that they were less frequent. Pitt transfer Tra'Von Chapman began the season as the primary quarterback but struggled drastically. He completed a combind four of 22 passes for 29 yards against Oklahoma and Pitt, and senior Kyle Pohl completed just nine of 25. Combined, that is a remarkable 28 percent completion rate. That Akron scored even 10 points in those games was a minor miracle.

With Pohl injured, Woodson got an extended look against Savannah State, and while SSU was one of the worst FCS teams in the country, Woodson still showed nice potential. He completed 12 of 20 passes for 207 yards and rushed 11 times for 63 yards, and that was enough to secure the job.

Woodson's 3.6 percent INT rate was too high, and his 53 percent completion rate was too low. But he took a pretty low number of sacks for a mobile QB, and his strong moments were quite strong: 14-for-22 for 222 and four scores against EMU, 17-for-30 for 258 and four scores against Buffalo.

With a depleted supporting cast, Woodson will need to improve to even post the same stats he managed last year. But he might be able to pull that off.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Conor Hundley	RB					203	908	10	4.5	3.9	38.9%	0	0
Thomas Woodson	QB	6'1, 240	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8101	124	677	3	5.5	4.5	44.4%	5	2
Donnell Alexander	RB					107	499	3	4.7	4.5	34.6%	1	0
Tra'Von Chapman	QB	6'1, 216	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8931	28	76	0	2.7	3.1	32.1%	1	0
Cody Grice	NT					22	35	4	1.6	1.2	4.5%	0	0
Van Edwards, Jr.	RB	5'9, 185	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7533	14	60	0	4.3	2.1	35.7%	1	1
Hakeem Lawrence	RB	5'7, 180	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8062	6	11	0	1.8	0.0	0.0%	1	1
Imani Davis	WR					4	15	0	3.8	2.9	25.0%	2	1
Kyle Pohl	QB					4	6	0	1.5	3.1	25.0%	0	0
D.J. Jones	RB	5'8, 191	Sr.	NR	NR
Manny Morgan	RB	5'8, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8156
Jaleel Davis	RB	5'11, 205	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7642

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Imani Davis	WR-Y					82	47	613	57.3%	24.1%	7.5	70.7%	47.6%	1.41
JoJo Natson (Utah State)	WR-Y	5'8, 165	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8000	79	51	504	64.6%	21.4%	6.4	41.8%	N/A	N/A
Jerome Lane	WR-Z	6'3, 220	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8314	73	39	782	53.4%	21.5%	10.7	54.8%	46.6%	2.20
Andrew Pratt	WR-X					56	28	280	50.0%	16.5%	5.0	51.8%	37.5%	1.16
Mykel Traylor-Bennett (2014)	WR-X	6'3, 205	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8011	41	17	256	41.5%	8.1%	6.2	68.3%	N/A	N/A
Tyrell Goodman	WR-X	6'2, 215	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	27	12	104	44.4%	7.9%	3.9	44.4%	37.0%	0.93
A.J. Coney	WR-H	5'8, 180	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	NR	21	11	125	52.4%	6.2%	6.0	38.1%	42.9%	1.27
Austin Wolf	WR-Y	6'3, 210	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7881	19	10	212	52.6%	5.6%	11.2	73.7%	52.6%	2.15
Michaelee Harris (Louisville)	WR-Z	6'0, 210	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9172	16	9	113	56.3%	3.9%	7.1	56.3%	N/A	N/A
Michael Means, Jr.	WR-Z	6'2, 200	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7100	13	5	61	38.5%	3.8%	4.7	69.2%	30.8%	1.49
Conor Hundley	RB					11	7	70	63.6%	3.2%	6.4	54.5%	36.4%	1.87
Richie Cooper	WR					10	6	49	60.0%	2.9%	4.9	80.0%	40.0%	1.10
Josh McNeil	TE	6'5, 265	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8528	9	7	37	77.8%	2.6%	4.1	66.7%	44.4%	0.73
Anthony Young	WR-Y	6'0, 176	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8281	7	3	94	42.9%	2.1%	13.4	85.7%	42.9%	3.23
Newman Williams	TE	6'2, 250	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7856	6	6	71	100.0%	1.8%	11.8	100.0%	100.0%	1.15
Anthony Lauro	WR-H	5'10, 195	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7947
Avery Cagle	TE	6'4, 227	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7633
Kwadarrius Smith	WR-Y	5'9, 165	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7856
Jaquavis Dixon	WR-H	6'2, 185	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7594

4. A brand new skill position corps

First, the good news: JoJo Natson has arrived. One of the nation's more diverse, entertaining skill position threats, Natson rushed caught 108 passes for 883 yards and rushed 79 times for 612 yards at Utah State in 2013-14; he was also dynamite in punt returns, averaging more than 11 yards per return and scoring four times in those two seasons. The senior from Oakland Park, Fla., is tiny and hard to hold onto. The custom-made slot receiver's addition alone brings a level of versatility to the Akron offense that it just didn't have before.

Now the bad news: Natson might have to touch the ball a lot. Running backs Conor Hundley and Donnell Alexander, who combined for 310 carries and 1,407 yards, are gone. So are receivers Imani Davis and Andrew Pratt, who combined for 75 catches and 893 yards.

None of these four players were irreplaceable; neither Hundley nor Alexander averaged even five yards per carry, and Davis and Pratt combined to average 6.5 yards per target. Still, from a pure volume standpoint, a lot of last year's touches are gone.

Sophomore Van Edwards began the season as the first-string running back, while juniors A.J. Coney and Jerome Lane and senior Tyrell Goodman joined Natson in the starting receiving corps. Edwards had 14 carries last year, and Goodman and Coney had 23 catches.

The addition of Natson, Louisville transfer Michaelee Harris, and all-or-nothing Mykel Traylor-Bennett (who missed 2015 with injury) gives Akron options. But there are almost no knowns. Of course, the bar isn't very high, so maybe this works out just fine.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	91	2.73	2.69	36.4%	59.6%	23.9%	151.8	1.9%	6.2%
Rank	108	93	108	94	106	113	23	11	43

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Dylan Brumbaugh	LG					13	36
Tommy Brown	RG					13	23
Quaison Osborne	RT					11	21
Isaiah Williams	LT					10	21
Andrew Bohan	C					12	12
Kyle Ritz	LT	6'5, 305	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	5	5
Stephen Ericksen	C	6'3, 300	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7300	1	1
Undrea Bullard	RT	6'6, 295	So.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	0	0
LaVonne Gauthney	LG	6'1, 290	Jr.	NR	NR	0	0
Michael Casimos	LG	6'2, 320	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7000	0	0
Ryan Kortokrax	RG	6'3, 300	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7433	0	0
Mitchell Hlay	LT	6'7, 275	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7917
Rich Kallay	RG	6'5, 290	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7683
Cedric McCoy	RG	6'5, 330	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7900
Jovann Letuli	OL	6'5, 335	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7794
Montel Jordan	LG	6'4, 330	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7856
Trevor Brown	LT	6'5, 275	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7895
Brandon Council	RT	6'4, 330	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7756

5. A brand new offensive line

More bad news: Those responsible for 59 of Akron's 65 starts on the offensive line last year are gone. This includes three-year starting guard Dylan Brumbaugh and two-year starters Tommy Brown, Quaison Osborne, and Isaiah Williams.

More good news, as it were: The bar isn't high. The line protected Woodson pretty well but was a sieve in run blocking and didn't get much of a push in short-yardage situations. Plus, experience up front doesn't necessarily mean what we thought it meant. So there's that!

Spot starters Kyle Ritz and Stephen Ericksen are back, likely joined by two junior guards (part-time tight end LaVonne Gauthney and Ryan Kortokrax) and a sophomore tackle (Undrea Bullard). There is not a single former three-star recruit among the 13 returning/arriving linemen I listed above. The line will likely regress in terms of pass protection, but the run blocking can only get so much worse. It will probably hold steady.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.13	11	IsoPPP+	117.9	17
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	36.6%	21	Succ. Rt. +	101.8	59
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	31.6	34	Off. FP+	29.6	76
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.2	44	Redzone S&P+	95.6	84
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	26.8		ACTUAL	28.0	+1.2

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	15	29	59	17
RUSHING	3	21	52	7
PASSING	84	40	63	31
Standard Downs		27	50	19
Passing Downs		30	74	23

Q1 Rk	31	1st Down Rk	38
Q2 Rk	50	2nd Down Rk	42
Q3 Rk	97	3rd Down Rk	60
Q4 Rk	40

6. Opponents didn't even try to run

Obviously your defensive run-pass rates are going to be dictated by who you're playing, and in Bowling Green and UMass, among others, Akron played at least a few teams that liked to pass. But these rates still tell a remarkable story: No team in the country faced fewer rushes on standard downs than Akron. MAC opponents especially didn't even try to pretend they had the horses to beat the Zips' front seven and just moved straight into trying to throw.

Akron ranked 21st in Rushing S&P+ and eighth in Adj. Line Yards -- that's not MAC good, that's just good. The Zips swarmed to the ball, allowing only seven rushes of 20-plus yards in 13 games (only Washington allowed fewer, with six). And the linebacking corps not only prevented big plays but also made them: The three starters combined for 37 tackles for loss, 16.5 sacks, nine passes defensed, and six forced fumbles.

Combined with a line full of former power conference recruits and a coaching duo that knows how to develop linemen -- Amato and line coach Todd Stroud have been doing this a long time now -- Akron had a defensive front most power conference teams couldn't match. And when you can render your opponent one-dimensional on first down, you have created a devastating advantage.

Again, it's a good news, bad news situation here. Ends Jamal Marcus and Se'Von Pittman are back, and they're awesome. Sophomore tackle Brock Boxen showed glimpses of potential in a backup role last year. And at the least, the linebacking corps has three former three-star recruits to lean on despite the loss of three starters.

Still, the bad news is obvious: Akron played its starters almost exclusively, and five starters from last year's front seven are gone. We don't really know what the Zips have in reserve because they didn't show us last year.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	118.1	2.20	2.73	36.4%	62.5%	23.2%	106.8	5.6%	8.2%
Rank	8	4	23	46	44	24	50	46	49

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Rodney Coe	DT					12	32.5	4.9%	8.5	2.0	0	3	1	1
Se'Von Pittman	DE	6'3, 269	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9565	13	26.5	4.0%	7.0	3.0	0	2	2	0
Jamal Marcus	DE	6'2, 240	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8962	11	24.0	3.6%	12.5	5.5	0	1	1	0
Cody Grice	NT					13	19.0	2.9%	5.5	3.0	0	0	0	1
Daumantas Venckus-Cucchiara	DE	6'5, 230	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8071	13	9.5	1.4%	2.0	1.5	0	0	0	0
Alfonso Horner	DE					11	6.0	0.9%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Brock Boxen	DT	6'3, 272	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8225	11	5.5	0.8%	2.5	0.5	0	0	1	0
Richard Dorvilus	DE				NR	12	4.5	0.7%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Brennan Williams	DT	6'1, 264	So.	NR	NR	3	2.5	0.4%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Darius Copeland	NT	6'1, 280	Jr.	NR	NR	9	1.5	0.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Christopher Spruill	NT	6'2, 270	Jr.	NR	NR
Deon-Tae Moore	DE	6'2, 240	Jr.	NR	NR
JoVohn Morrow	DT	6'1, 268	So.	NR	NR
Tyler Shipman	NT	6'1, 240	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7578
Josh Ward	DE	6'2, 214	RSFr.	NR	NR

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jatavis Brown	WILL					13	89.0	13.4%	20.0	12.0	1	1	4	0
Dylan Evans	SAM					13	86.0	13.0%	12.0	2.5	1	6	1	0
Darryl Monroe	MIKE					13	63.5	9.6%	5.0	2.0	0	0	1	0
Ulysees Gilbert III	WILL	6'1, 225	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8041	13	9.0	1.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
John Rachal	MIKE	5'11, 225	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7000	13	8.5	1.3%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Andrew Hauser	MIKE	6'1, 219	Sr.	NR	NR	13	8.0	1.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Brian Bell	SAM	6'3, 218	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8650	12	3.0	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Newman Williams	LB	6'2, 250	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7856
Travonte Junius	SAM	6'3, 210	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7794
DeMarcus Lloyd	LB	6'0, 225	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8000
Alvin Davis Jr.	SAM	6'0, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8199

7. A void in the middle

In Pittman, Marcus, and lanky senior Daumantas Venckus-Cucchiara, Akron's got all the ends you could want. And I'm willing to bet that sophomore Ulysees Gilbert III turns out just fine in the WLB spot. But Akron's defensive backbone has atrophied. Gone are two active starting tackles (Rodney Coe, Cody Grice) and middle linebacker/traffic director Darryl Monroe.

Boxen, seldom-used nose tackle Darius Copeland and senior reserve John Rachal have an almost impossible bar to clear, and they probably will not clear it. A lot of the play-making potential remains, but one wonders if the Zips will be able to prevent plays quite as well.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Zach Guiser	FS	6'1, 195	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7717	13	49.5	7.5%	0.5	0	2	5	0	0
Kris Givens	CB					13	49.0	7.4%	1.5	0	1	7	0	0
Bryce Cheek	ROV					13	41.5	6.3%	1	0	1	6	1	0
Jordan George	ROV	5'11, 193	So.	NR	NR	13	34.5	5.2%	2	0	1	3	0	0
DeAndre Scott	CB	5'11, 185	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	NR	13	29.0	4.4%	1.5	0	6	11	1	0
John Senter	CB					13	16.0	2.4%	0	0	0	4	0	0
Larry Hope	CB	6'0, 183	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8378	11	7.5	1.1%	0	0	1	2	0	0
Kyron Brown	CB	6'1, 186	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7583	13	7.0	1.1%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Cory Morrow	ROV	6'0, 204	Sr.	NR	NR	13	7.0	1.1%	0	0	0	0	1	0
James Turner	FS	5'11, 201	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	11	3.0	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Bryce Jones	CB	6'0, 178	Sr.	NR	0.7759
Jerome Lane	ROV	6'3, 220	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8314
A.J. Coney	CB	5'8, 180	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	NR
Mikee Hayes	CB	5'9, 166	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7900
Jamal Baggett	FS	5'11, 190	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8006
Jason Williams	CB	6'3, 185	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7967

8. Fewer concerns in the back

One of the more interesting pieces of Bowden's phiolosophy appears to be his willingness to allow guys to play both ways. Nose tackle Cody Grice was Akron's short-yardage back last season, while receivers Jerome Lane and A.J. Coney were both listed on the defensive two-deep at the end of the year. Part of that could have been via necessity, but Lane is listed as a "WR/LB" on the Akron roster after playing rover last year.

When you've got athletes, use them. And it appears that despite losing three of its top six, the secondary still has some solid athletes, Lane and Coney aside. DeAndre Scott was one of the nation's more active corners a year ago, and while Kris Givens and John Senter are gone, senior Larry Hope and sophomore Kyron Brown each showed that they could get hands on passes in limited opportunities. Meanwhile, the return of safeties Zach Guiser and Jordan George alleviates the loss of Bryce Cheek to some degree.

Akron's pass defense was strong as well last year -- 40th in Passing S&P+ -- though some of that could have been because opponents were so quickly rendered one-dimensional. Still, if the front seven can avoid too much regression, it does appear that the Zips have the potential to still do damage in the back, and without having to utilize offensive players to do so.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Zach Paul			79	41.5	8	20	26	58.2%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Robert Stein			66	56.5	16	3	24.2%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Robert Stein			36-38	10-13	76.9%	5-9	55.6%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Van Edwards, Jr.	KR	5'9, 185	So.	20	20.7	0
Tyrell Goodman	KR	6'2, 215	Sr.	4	9.0	0
A.J. Coney	PR	5'8, 180	Jr.	17	4.3	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	92
Field Goal Efficiency	87
Punt Return Success Rate	68
Kick Return Success Rate	30
Punt Success Rate	75
Kickoff Success Rate	105

9. Wanted: legs

Van Edwards proved consistent in kick returns, and while A.J. Coney wasn't incredibly explosive in punt returns, he was able to field the ball and prevent long punts. That's an underrated skill. Still, the special teams unit as a whole was a bit of a weakness thanks to kicks ... and now the Zips must replace their legs. Zach Paul and Robert Stein are both gone, and as is the case with the offense, while neither was replaceable, it doesn't mean the replacements will be any better.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
3-Sep	VMI	NR	26.9	94%
10-Sep	at Wisconsin	37	-18.2	15%
17-Sep	at Marshall	75	-10.3	28%
24-Sep	Appalachian State	59	-6.6	35%
1-Oct	at Kent State	104	-1.4	47%
8-Oct	Miami (Ohio)	107	7.9	68%
15-Oct	Western Michigan	65	-5.4	38%
22-Oct	at Ball State	101	-1.8	46%
27-Oct	at Buffalo	109	1.3	53%
2-Nov	Toledo	58	-6.6	35%
9-Nov	Bowling Green	60	-6.3	36%
22-Nov	at Ohio	95	-4.8	39%
Projected wins: 5.3

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-29.9% (111)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	124 / 115
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	10 / 9.7
2015 TO Luck/Game	+0.1
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	63% (72%, 53%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	7.8 (0.2)

10. Honestly? I have no idea

Scenario 1: Woodson and Natson are as versatile and exciting as advertised, and Van Edwards provides stability at running back. The new line is about the same as the old line.A depleted Akron defense is still too strong for most of its MAC foes, and with WMU, Toledo, and Bowling Green all visiting Akron, the Zips are able to pull off a couple of solid wins, beat the bad teams, and return to a bowl.

Scenario 2: An already shaky offense falls apart with so many new pieces, and thanks to turnover at defensive tackle and linebacker, opponents are suddenly able to run. This means doom in a home game against Appalachian State, and a loss at Kent State drops the Zips to 1-4. They lose to good MAC opponents at home, lose on the road to Ohio and perhaps Ball State or Buffalo, and finish in the neighborhood of 3-9.

Honestly, both would feel unsurprising to me.

So much of Akron's fate will be determined by 2015 backups that played sparingly -- Edwards, John Rachal, Brock Boxen, the entire offensive line -- and it's so hard to read.

I love the job that Bowden has done, and I'm inclined to give him and his seasoned staff the benefit of the doubt. But it's easy to see how this could fall apart quickly. After all, we just saw a similar story in Denton, Texas: With transfers and seniors, Dan McCarney's North Texas went 9-4 and won a bowl in 2013. But when that group of breakthrough guys cycled out, the replacements couldn't keep things going, and the Mean Green went 5-19 in 2014-15.