Central Michigan football is already ahead of schedule. Here comes another run at the MAC West

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1. Ahead of schedule

Their head coach left to become an assistant in the SEC. They signed a recruiting class without an actual head coach in charge. The guy they actually hired had no coaching experience and hadn't spent time at the college level since he was with Army in 1998.

They had to replace a 1,100-yard rusher, three of their top five receiving targets, an all-conference, four-year starting guard, two starting linebackers, and four of the top seven in the secondary. Their best defensive lineman got hurt early in the season and barely played. Their leading tacklers would be two safeties and a freshman. Their run game cratered.

Most significant of all, the new head coach had to undergo cancer radiation during fall camp and wouldn't find out until November that he was cancer-free.

The Central Michigan Chippewas dealt with a lot in 2015, enough to make you assume they didn't fare well on the field. There was an excuse not to. If they had bombed in 2015, there would still be reason to hope for a turnaround in 2016, with a far more experienced two-deep and a coach who was both healthy and more familiar with the responsibilities of the role.

Instead, John Bonamego's squad won seven games and came within two points of winning the MAC West. The Chippewas lost four games by one possession, trailed Oklahoma State by four into the fourth quarter, and trailed Michigan State by seven with nine minutes left. They were salty and competitive, with one of the best mid-major passing attacks and an aggressive secondary that pounced on passing downs.

In terms of S&P+, this was CMU's best team since 2009. After the great success of the Brian Kelly and Butch Jones eras -- from 2006 to 2009, with Dan Lefevour at quarterback, the Chippewas won 38 games, two bowls, and three MAC titles -- the Enos era was neither great nor terrible. After a pair of rebuilding years (6-18 in 2010-11), Enos' Chippewas rebounded to reach bowl eligibility three times and attend two bowls. They won the Little Caesars Bowl against Western Kentucky in 2012, then very nearly pulled off the greatest comeback in bowl history, falling to WKU in an epic Bahamas Bowl in 2014.

They also never topped 89th in S&P+ during Enos' time. In Bonamego's first year, with countless reasons for tamped down expectations, they ranked 78th.

In almost a mulligan year, CMU made a statement. And now the tables have turned: The Chippewas return a 3,800-yard passer and his top five wideouts, plus most of the defensive two-deep. A year after Bonamego was challenged to not only manage a football team but also manage cancer, now we find out if he can manage expectations. Because CMU should have them.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 7-6 | Adj. Record: 7-6 | Final F/+ Rk: 67 | Final S&P+ Rk: 78
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
3-Sep	Oklahoma State	40	13-24	L	24%	8%	-0.4	+13.0
12-Sep	Monmouth	N/A	31-10	W	76%	100%	+2.4
19-Sep	at Syracuse	85	27-30	L	13%	5%	+4.1	+4.0
26-Sep	at Michigan State	9	10-30	L	11%	1%	+7.4	+7.0
3-Oct	Northern Illinois	66	29-19	W	57%	73%	+16.9	+13.0
10-Oct	at Western Michigan	51	39-41	L	37%	30%	-7.0	+5.0
17-Oct	Buffalo	98	51-14	W	93%	100%	+30.6	+30.0
24-Oct	at Ball State	110	23-21	W	53%	87%	-5.4	-5.5
31-Oct	at Akron	84	14-6	W	74%	91%	+7.6	+5.0
10-Nov	Toledo	20	23-28	L	24%	5%	-2.1	-8.0
18-Nov	at Kent State	109	27-14	W	62%	95%	+0.9	+3.5
27-Nov	Eastern Michigan	122	35-28	W	69%	98%	-15.6	-17.0
28-Dec	vs. Minnesota	55	14-21	L	32%	28%	+2.5	-1.0

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	26.8	82	27.7	60
Points Per Game	25.8	88	22.0	28

2. Two ways to look at 2015

When you've got a sample of 12 or 13 games, you can see three or four different trends if you squint just right. It can become a fool's errand to lean too heavily into conclusions based off of this, but they can be interesting to note nonetheless.

Potential Trend No. 1: CMU got better over the second half of the regular season

• First 6 games
  Average percentile performance: 36% (~top 85) | Record: 2-4 (Average score: Opp 26, CMU 25) | Yards per play: CMU 5.6, Opp 5.3
• Next 6 games
  Average percentile performance: 63% (~top 50) | Record: 5-1 (Average score: CMU 29, Opp 19) | Yards per play: CMU 6.0, Opp 4.9

With a slower pace and a defense pretty good at preventing big plays, CMU was able to stay close in losses without actually playing all that well early on. The Chippewas were good against Monmouth and NIU but didn't hold up to statistical scrutiny in the other four games of the first half of the year.

Then, in the second half, they clicked. Aside from a shaky, lucky-to-be-that-close loss to Toledo, they looked the part of at least a top-60 team in each of the other five games, winning all five.

Even allowing for a bowl dud of sorts, this suggests exciting things -- a young, ahead-of-schedule team got better as the year progressed and returns most of the reasons for that improvement.

Potential Trend No. 2: CMU was excellent within its own weight class

Instead of looking at early vs. late, we could look at who CMU was playing early and late.

• Games vs. power conference competition
  Average percentile performance: 20% (~top 105) | Record: 0-4 (Average score: Opp 26, CMU 16) | Yards per play: Opp 6.1, CMU 5.1
• Games vs. group of five
  Average percentile performance: 61% (~top 50) | Record: 7-2 (Average score: CMU 30, Opp 20) | Yards per play: CMU 6.0, Opp 4.8

The style allowed CMU to stay close to OSU and Michigan State before losing ground in the fourth quarter, but I watched those games, and it never really felt like CMU had the weapons to surge ahead. There was accomplishment in keeping it close, but this could have simply been a case where the Chippewas didn't have the horses against power teams but knew quite well how to maneuver when the athleticism was even or in their favor.

Honestly, this is encouraging in its own way. You want to make statements and pull big upsets (especially when a school like Oklahoma State comes to Mount Pleasant), but winning your conference is the most important thing for most schools, and CMU proved that, even while it was getting situated under a new boss, it was pretty close to competing in a strong MAC.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.29	52	IsoPPP+	104.4	52
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	41.8%	67	Succ. Rt. +	96.4	86
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	30.4	80	Def. FP+	30.2	78
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.1	96	Redzone S&P+	97.4	85
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	19.8		ACTUAL	16	-3.8

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	63	66	86	52
RUSHING	125	115	115	114
PASSING	19	36	41	36
Standard Downs		68	97	61
Passing Downs		50	70	52

Q1 Rk	81	1st Down Rk	79
Q2 Rk	91	2nd Down Rk	75
Q3 Rk	34	3rd Down Rk	98
Q4 Rk	101

3. Pass-first by necessity

Bonamego retained offensive coordinator Morris Watts when he came aboard last season. In 2014, Watts' first and only season as OC for Dan Enos, Watts installed a system that was balanced on standard downs and pass-heavy on passing downs. In 2015, CMU went all-in on the passing game.

For all we know, part of that shift may have come from Bonamego. Maybe he prefers it. But the most likely explanation is this: CMU couldn't run, and Watts isn't stupid.

CMU ranked 115th in Rushing S&P+ and 36th in Passing S&P+; a split that wide is impressive when you think about it. If a team cannot run, opponents know it and can game up on the pass, which might perhaps tamp down the passing numbers a bit. On the flip side, if a team can pass really well, opponents might have to focus heavily on it, and in theory that would open the door to successful running. Regardless, CMU pulled off this "feat."

At first glance, it's hard to see this changing much in 2016. "Leading" rusher Martez Walker transferred, and the line has to replace an all-conference center and its left tackle. Meanwhile, quarterback Cooper Rush is back, as are four of the five players who finished 2015 with at least 550 receiving yards. Good remains good, bad remains bad. But a sophomore running back might be able to change this equation a bit.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2016 Year

Rivals

247 Comp.

Comp

Att

Yards

TD

INT

Comp Rate

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/ Att.

Cooper Rush

6'3, 227

Sr.

2 stars (5.4)

0.8227

324

489

3848

25

11

66.3%

27

5.2%

7.0

Ryan Lamb

0

1

0

0

0

0.0%

1

50.0%

-3.0

Jake Johnson

6'2, 202

RSFr.

2 stars (5.3)

0.8231

Tommy Lazzaro

6'3, 225

So.

3 stars (5.6)

0.8111

Tony Poljan

6'7, 240

Fr.

3 stars (5.6)

0.8553

Austin Hergott

6'3, 220

Fr.

2 stars (5.4)

0.7999

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Martez Walker	RB					106	373	2	3.5	4.2	30.2%	1	0
Jahray Hayes	RB	5'11, 210	Sr.	NR	NR	95	324	4	3.4	2.5	28.4%	2	2
Romello Ross	RB	5'10, 189	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8039	54	247	4	4.6	2.9	44.4%	0	0
Devon Spalding	RB	5'11, 203	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	52	182	1	3.5	4.9	26.9%	0	0
Cooper Rush	QB	6'3, 227	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8227	36	259	3	7.2	6.0	55.6%	4	1
Jay Roberson	RB	6'2, 225	Jr.	NR	NR	19	60	0	3.2	4.8	15.8%	2	1
Mark Chapman	WR	6'0, 181	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8267	10	74	1	7.4	5.7	50.0%	1	0
Corey Willis	WR	5'10, 175	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8261	9	19	0	2.1	3.1	44.4%	0	0
Trent Grimes	RB	6'0, 198	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7759

4. Maybe Ross is the guy?

Romello Ross was one of the gems of CMU's coachless 2015 signing class. A four-year all-stater at Detroit Western high school, he was a three-star recruit per the 247Sports Composite. While other more highly-rated members of the 2015 class redshirted -- receivers Brandon Childress and Jamil Sabbagh, quarterback Jake Johnson, offensive tackle Derek Smith, defensive tackle Shahid Bellamy, defensive end Mike Danna -- Ross was trhust into action over the last half of the season.

While you never want to make much of a small sample size, it might be worth noting that he averaged 3.9 yards per carry over his first three games and 4.9 over his last three. He had 100 rushing yards and 28 receiving yards in the bowl against Minnesota; that's impressive in its own right, but it's doubly impressive when you realize that CMU gained only 249 total yards. He had more than half of them.

If CMU's run game suddenly becomes viable, Ross will probably be the reason why. He hasn't proven himself explosive yet, but 44 percent of his carries gained at least five yards; of the five CMU backs with 19 or more carries last year, he was the only one above 30 percent, and he was WELL over 30 percent.

If CMU has someone who can steal the yardage defenses give the Chippewas by focusing on the pass, this offense could surge. It was too one-dimensional to succeed against good defenses last fall, but the pass should still work against everybody else. Rush is one of the MAC's best quarterbacks, and he's got one of the MAC's best receiving corps at his disposal. The top four returnees combined a strong 52 percent success rate with an average of 13.1 yards per catch. The loss of tight end Ben McCord hurts -- he was one of the better big-play tight ends around -- but his absence might just mean opportunities for Childress, Sabbagh, or a fellow redshirt freshman, tight end Austin Ervin.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Jesse Kroll	WR	6'3, 214	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7000	97	61	866	62.9%	20.8%	8.9	66.0%	55.7%	1.44
Anthony Rice	WR	6'0, 179	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7600	77	57	595	74.0%	16.5%	7.7	46.8%	53.2%	1.32
Ben McCord	TE					60	39	612	65.0%	12.8%	10.2	55.0%	51.7%	1.83
Corey Willis	WR	5'10, 175	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8261	58	37	564	63.8%	12.4%	9.7	51.7%	43.1%	2.21
Mark Chapman	WR	6'0, 181	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8267	58	43	559	74.1%	12.4%	9.6	53.4%	53.4%	1.66
Martez Walker	RB	5'8, 185	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7983	25	19	97	76.0%	5.4%	3.9	56.0%	28.0%	1.15
Devon Spalding	RB	5'11, 203	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	18	14	125	77.8%	3.9%	6.9	72.2%	44.4%	1.24
Jahray Hayes	RB	5'11, 210	Sr.	NR	NR	14	9	52	64.3%	3.0%	3.7	57.1%	42.9%	0.74
Joe Bacci	FB	6'1, 245	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7615	14	11	49	78.6%	3.0%	3.5	64.3%	42.9%	0.82
Romello Ross	RB	5'10, 189	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8309	12	11	106	91.7%	2.6%	8.8	58.3%	41.7%	2.00
Eric Cooper	WR	5'11, 189	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7859	10	9	84	90.0%	2.1%	8.4	70.0%	60.0%	1.41
Tyler Conklin	TE	6'4, 235	Jr.	NR	NR	8	6	95	75.0%	1.7%	11.9	75.0%	62.5%	1.84
Zach Crouch	TE	6'5, 241	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7938	7	3	42	42.9%	1.5%	6.0	57.1%	42.9%	1.21
Jay Roberson	RB	6'2, 225	Jr.	NR	NR	5	5	42	100.0%	1.1%	8.4	80.0%	80.0%	0.97
Brandon Childress	WR	6'2, 190	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8500
Jamil Sabbagh	WR	5'9, 201	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8115
Austin Ervin	TE	6'4, 235	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7893
Bailey Edwards	WR	6'1, 183	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8321

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	87.1	2.58	2.52	33.6%	57.9%	24.6%	109.5	2.9%	8.1%
Rank	117	110	113	117	112	118	47	23	81

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Nick Beamish	C					13	51	2015 1st All-MAC
Ramadan Ahmeti	LT					10	32
Kenny Rogers	RG	6'6, 295	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7500	11	24
Austin Doan	LG	6'4, 301	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7960	13	13
Derek Edwards	RT	6'5, 300	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8317	13	13
Jack Ford	LT	6'7, 305	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7916	2	2
J.P. Quinn	LG	6'4, 295	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8035	2	2
Joe Austin	RT	6'6, 288	Jr.	NR	NR	1	1
Joe Komel	C	6'4, 302	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7619	0	0
Shakir Carr	RG	6'4, 316	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7941	0	0
Alex Coty	OL	6'4, 310	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7483	0	0
Brandon Keen	OL	6'6, 274	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7659	0	0
Logan Slaughter	OL	6'3, 284	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7759
Derek Smith	OL	6'5, 260	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8184

5. The good news: The line already wasn't very good

Losing two players who had accounted for 83 career starts is never a particularly good thing, especially when that includes an all-conference performer and your left tackle. But if there's a silver lining for CMU in replacing Nick Beamish and Ramadan Ahmeti, it's that the line already wasn't very good with them. It could certainly get worse without them, but you can only get so much worse than 115th in Rushing S&P+, 117th in Adj. Line Yards, and 118th in stuff rate. There are, after all, only 128 teams in FBS. CMU let pass rushers into the backfield pretty frequently on passing downs, as well.

Maybe the most encouraging aspect of this year's line is that it only features one senior. That could hold back the Chippewas in 2016, but in 2017, when Rush, Kroll, and Rice are gone, Ross (or whoever ends up the starting RB) will be running behind a senior-heavy line. So there's that, at least. But unless Ross turns out to be the real deal, the run numbers probably won't be much better this fall.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.22	49	IsoPPP+	99.4	70
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	40.3%	58	Succ. Rt. +	94.2	89
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	30.4	54	Off. FP+	29.8	73
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.3	52	Redzone S&P+	98.7	76
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	20.1		ACTUAL	18.0	-2.1

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	16	79	89	70
RUSHING	29	85	94	81
PASSING	24	70	79	63
Standard Downs		91	107	83
Passing Downs		47	40	49

Q1 Rk	120	1st Down Rk	68
Q2 Rk	101	2nd Down Rk	77
Q3 Rk	15	3rd Down Rk	47
Q4 Rk	16

6. A second-half team

A first-time head coach often sees value in bringing on veteran coordinators, and Bonamego has maybe the most experienced coordinator pair in the MAC. Watts' career spans back to the early 1960s, when he was an assistant in southern Missouri. Defensive coordinator Greg Colby's career reaches back into the 1970s in Illinois high schools. Colby worked for Nick Saban at Michigan State, then served as defensive coordinator at Kent State (1998-2001) and Northwestern (2002-07). He spent four years as head coach at Division II Millersville, as well.

If nothing else, Colby's first year as CMU defensive coordinator was defined by strong adjustments. The Chippewas were awful in the first quarter (120th), bad in the second (101st) and downright awesome in the third (15th) and fourth (16th). By both choice and injury-based necessity, Colby played a lot of guys in the front seven, and the defense appeared to remain fresh well into the game.

The key in 2016 will be not waiting as long. CMU wasn't incredibly aggressive (or effectively aggressive) but will have a chance to change that thanks to the return of senior defensive end and 2014 star Joe Ostman, who battled a high ankle sprain and barely played in 2015. Granted, his return might simply offset the loss of fellow end Blake Serpa, but with almost everybody else back in the front seven, this could work out pretty well.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	92.9	2.79	2.77	36.3%	64.7%	21.9%	74.8	3.0%	3.5%
Rank	93	48	27	44	57	44	107	110	123

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Joe Ostman (2014)	DE	6'3, 250	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7643	13	46.5	7.3%	10.0	3.0	0	1	3	0
Blake Serpa	DE					12	31.0	4.8%	9.5	3.0	0	2	2	0
Kelby Latta	NT	6'4, 305	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8599	13	26.5	4.1%	3.5	1.0	0	2	0	0
Louis Palmer	DT					13	22.0	3.4%	4.0	1.0	0	1	0	0
Chris Kantzavelos	DE	6'3, 265	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7383	11	19.5	3.0%	6.5	1.5	0	0	0	0
Mitch Stanitzek	DE	6'4, 245	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7693	11	12.0	1.8%	3.0	1.5	0	0	0	0
Jabari Dean	NT	6'2, 290	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7900	8	10.0	1.5%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Shafer Johnson	NT					11	6.0	0.9%	1.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Nate Brisson-Fast	DE	6'5, 246	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7759	12	5.5	0.8%	3.0	1.0	0	1	0	0
Michael Steinhauer	DT	6'3, 294	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7893	8	3.0	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Donny Kyre	DE	6'2, 250	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7726
Alex Neering	DE	6'6, 243	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7981
Shahid Bellamy	DT	6'1, 305	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8145
Mike Danna	DE	6'2, 238	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8015
Leon Page	DE	6'2, 233	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7991
Josh Eldridge	DE	6'2, 252	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7790

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Malik Fountain	LB	6'2, 233	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7693	13	51.0	7.8%	4.5	0.0	0	1	1	0
Nathan Ricketts	LB	6'3, 237	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8182	13	46.0	7.1%	4.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Tim Hamilton	LB					7	35.0	5.4%	3.5	0.0	1	0	0	0
Tyree Waller	LB	6'1, 225	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7383	13	31.5	4.8%	4.0	2.0	0	2	0	0
Jeff Perry	LB	6'2, 228	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7300	13	25.5	3.9%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Trevor Apsey	LB	6'0, 205	So.	NR	NR	13	13.0	2.0%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Alex Briones	LB	6'2, 235	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7856	10	4.5	0.7%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Cameron Davis	LB					10	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Michael Oliver	LB	5'11, 249	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7992

7. A pass rush wouldn't hurt

Including Ostman's 2014 totals, CMU returns 10 players who recorded at least 2.5 tackles for loss. Younger players like tackle Mitch Stanitzek and end Nate Brisson-Fast sliced into the backfield in limited opportunity, and three returning LBs logged at least four TFLs each.

Now just imagine the totals if CMU could actually rush the passer. Of these 10 backfield invaders, only two had more than 1.5 sacks: Ostman and linebacker Tyree Waller. CMU recorded top-50 stuff rates against the run but had a drastically substandard pass rush. That the Chippewas still managed to produce excellent passing downs numbers was impressive considering opposing quarterbacks very much had time to throw.

This was probably at least part by design. If you're not sacking the QB and you're still producing solid passing downs numbers, that probably means you're flooding passing lanes and making it difficult for the passer to find a man. That linebackers combined for just two sacks suggests this is the case. Still, if Ostman's return and the further maturation of Brisson-Fast and junior Chris Kantzavelos leads to better pass rushing from the front four, perhaps this defense won't need to wait until the third quarter to play well.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Kavon Frazier	S					13	91.0	14.0%	4.5	0	1	4	2	0
Tony Annese	S	6'1, 209	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7900	13	71.0	10.9%	2.5	0	2	5	0	0
Josh Cox	CB	5'11, 190	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7759	12	42.5	6.5%	2.5	0	1	8	3	0
Amari Coleman	CB	5'10, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7759	13	36.0	5.5%	2	1	1	7	1	0
Stefon Armstead	CB					11	15.5	2.4%	0	0	1	4	0	1
Gary Jones	S	6'2, 217	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7533	13	9.0	1.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Winslow Chapman	CB	6'0, 195	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7200	13	4.5	0.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Zach Oakley	DB	6'1, 204	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7842	13	4.5	0.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Otis Kearney	S	6'0, 196	So.	NR	0.8000	4	3.0	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Emmett Thomas	CB	5'10, 160	So.	NR	NR
Da'Quaun Jamison	DB	6'0, 186	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7826
Alonzo McCoy	CB	5'10, 180	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8147
Jakkar Jackson	DB	5'10, 191	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7657
Tee'ondre Harvey	DB	6'0, 161	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7757

8. Playmakers in the back

Losing safety Kavon Frazier, with his five passes defensed and DB-leading 4.5 tackles for loss, hurts. But in corners Josh Cox and Amari Coleman and safety Tony Annese, the Chippewas return three-quarters of a potentially fantastic secondary. It's not immediately clear who will man the other safety spot -- junior Gary Jones would probably be the favorite -- but Annese, Cox, and Coleman combined for 6.5 TFLs, four interceptions, 20 pass breakups, and four forced fumbles. And again, that's with no pass rush.

This unit appears to once again be a strength of the defense, one that could thrive even further with more favors from the front seven.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Ron Coluzzi			59	39.2	3	22	15	62.7%
Zach Oakley	6'1, 204	So.	4	48.0	0	0	1	25.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Ron Coluzzi			64	60.5	21	4	32.8%
Brian Eavey	6'2, 192	Sr.	3	62.0	2	0	66.7%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Brian Eavey	6'2, 192	Sr.	38-38	11-11	100.0%	5-13	38.5%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Emmett Thomas	KR	5'10, 160	So.	28	20.3	0
Mark Chapman	KR	6'0, 181	Jr.	3	20.0	0
Emmett Thomas	PR	5'10, 160	So.	10	3.9	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	77
Field Goal Efficiency	76
Punt Return Success Rate	90
Kick Return Success Rate	17
Punt Success Rate	78
Kickoff Success Rate	82

9. An automatic 3 points (inside the 25)

In place-kicker Brian Eavey, CMU had both a strength and weakness. Eavey didn't miss a kick all year under 40 yards -- that includes 39 PATs and 11 field goals. But he was also scattershot beyond 40., making under 40 percent of his kicks. A decent college kicker will make 80-plus percent of his sub-40 attempts and 50 percent or so beyond 40. Eavey was both good and bad.

Beyond Eavey, this was a pretty average special teams unit. Punter/kickoffs guy Ron Coluzzi is gone, but return man Emmett Thomas returns. More good, more bad.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
1-Sep	Presbyterian	NR	30.6	96%
10-Sep	at Oklahoma State	23	-18.8	14%
17-Sep	UNLV	114	13.4	78%
24-Sep	at Virginia	68	-8.0	32%
1-Oct	Western Michigan	65	-1.7	46%
8-Oct	Ball State	101	8.9	70%
15-Oct	at Northern Illinois	79	-6.0	36%
22-Oct	at Toledo	58	-9.8	28%
29-Oct	Kent State	104	9.3	70%
4-Nov	at Miami (Ohio)	107	4.6	60%
15-Nov	Ohio	95	6.0	63%
22-Nov	at Eastern Michigan	121	1.8	54%
Projected wins: 6.5

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-23.5% (102)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	91 / 101
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	2 / 0.3
2015 TO Luck/Game	+0.6
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	73% (80%, 67%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	7.2 (-0.2)

10. You can work with this schedule

CMU is projected a conservative 85th in S&P+; experience levels are solid, and last year's results were strong, but the projections also incorporate recruiting rankings (which will drag down most MAC teams) and recent history beyond just last year.

85th is safe, but I could see the Chippewas cracking the 60s or 70s with just a few breaks. If Ross or another running back (junior Devon Spalding, perhaps) takes a step forward and helps to create a run game that isn't an anchor dragging down the passing game, then the offense could go from solid to awesome. And if an experienced front seven is able to provide a bit more help for its secondary, then the defense could improve. These both seem semi-realistic.

Regardless, even at 85th, CMU is given a 70 percent chance or better in four games this fall and between between 46 and 63 percent in four more. With further improvement, the trips to UVA or NIU could become tossups, but the Chippewas' chances of bowling once again are high even if they regress slightly.

After last year, though, regression would feel disappointing. This team exceeded my expectations and most likely exceeded its own, and even if this is a roster not designed to fare well against power conference teams, there are only two of those on the schedule. To me, this is a MAC West contender. The passing game is one of the best single units in the conference, and I feel the defense will improve a bit. John Bonamego earned major benefit of the doubt in 2015; we'll see if he can build even more.