Wanna bet against NIU winning the MAC West for the 7th year in a row?

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year's team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year's roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

1. The streak continues

John Wooden's UCLA basketball team won seven straight national titles from 1967-73 and 10 in all between 1964 and 1975. It was a crazy streak of dominance that featured four unbeaten seasons.

Geno Auriemma's UConn women's basketball team has currently won four national titles in a row; the Huskies have also had streaks of three in a row (2002-04) and two (2009-10) and have now won 11 rings since 1995. Six of his champions have finished unbeaten, and over the last three years UConn is a mind-boggling 116-1.

For both, the streaks included less-than-perfect teams. Wooden's 1965 champion began with a 27-point loss to Illinois. The 1969 champion barely eked by Drake in the national semifinals. The 1970 champion lost at Oregon, then lost at home to USC late in the regular season. The 1975 champion, Wooden's last, lost by 22 points at Washington late in the season and reached the finals only after beating Montana by three and surviving two overtime contests.

It's the same story with UConn. The first team in this four-year streak lost four regular season games before catching fire. The 2004 champion, the last of the three-year streak, lost four games and barely got by 11-seed UCSB in the Sweet 16.

This is nitpicking. But the point is this: You don't always get to look your best during a streak. Sometimes you just have to keep the streak going and hope you find your rhythm again.

Northern Illinois has won six consecutive MAC West titles. For the last few years, teams like Toledo and WMU have made the West the far stronger division in the conference, but no matter who else looks good, NIU ends up playing in Detroit.

• The first two teams in this six-year run were awesome. Both the 2010 and 2011 teams finished in the top 45 in S&P+; the 2011 team ranked 21st in Off. S&P+ as well. The Huskies were simply better than anyone else at high-tempo #MACtion.
• In 2012, the team that won the MAC and reached the Orange Bowl was nearly as good: 42nd in Off. S&P+, 53rd in overall S&P+.
• The 2013 team slipped to 64th overall thanks to defensive issues but was still spectacular on offense (28th).
• The 2014 team fell to 80th and had no business winning over better-on-paper Toledo and WMU teams. But they beat Toledo by three at home and raced by WMU in the second half of a snowy regular season finale, then torched a mediocre BGSU for the conference title.

The 2015 team may have been the most interesting yet. NIU improved to 69th overall in S&P+, but Toledo was an awesome 21st, powered by an early upset of Arkansas and easy wins over solid Arkansas State, BGSU, and Temple teams. WMU came in 53rd, putting together maybe the MAC's most impressive single-month performance of the season (WMU 196, Ohio/Miami/EMU/Ball State 62).

NIU lost to both Central Michigan and Ohio, which put the streak in doubt. But the Huskies played one of their best games of the year at Toledo in early November, and the Rockets blinked. And right before the Ohio loss, they once again took down WMU.

Even so, all Toledo had to do was beat WMU at home to win the West and end the streak. Western Michigan 35, Toledo 30. Sometimes a streak needs luck, too.

That NIU won its sixth straight despite losing THREE quarterbacks to injury made this even more remarkable. Granted, the QB situation meant that the season ended with two demoralizing losses -- 34-14 to BGSU in the MAC title game and an embarrassing 55-7 to Boise State in the Poinsettia Bowl -- but when you're playing a true-freshman walk-on in the most important position, you're probably not going to beat good teams.

NIU still improved on paper over 2014. And with healthy signal callers (in theory), along with 2015's leading rusher, two of three leading receivers, an All-MAC left tackle, five of eight defensive linemen, five of six linebackers, and five of seven defensive backs all back, NIU will likely improve even more in 2016.

Streaks end. But when you bet on it to happen, you tend to end up feeling silly.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 8-6 | Adj. Record: 8-6 | Final F/+ Rk: 66 | Final S&P+ Rk: 69
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
5-Sep	UNLV	105	38-30	W	71%	95%	-6.8	-15.0
12-Sep	Murray State	N/A	57-26	W	70%	100%	+3.7
19-Sep	at Ohio State	3	13-20	L	46%	11%	+24.7	+28.0
26-Sep	at Boston College	70	14-17	L	22%	5%	+4.9	+1.5
3-Oct	at Central Michigan	67	19-29	L	40%	27%	-16.9	-13.0
10-Oct	Ball State	110	59-41	W	72%	97%	+8.6	+8.0
17-Oct	at Miami-OH	113	45-12	W	93%	100%	+20.0	+17.5
24-Oct	Eastern Michigan	122	49-21	W	81%	100%	+11.7	0.0
3-Nov	at Toledo	20	32-27	W	77%	78%	+16.7	+12.0
11-Nov	at Buffalo	98	41-30	W	67%	83%	+5.7	+4.0
18-Nov	Western Michigan	51	27-19	W	69%	76%	+4.0	+5.0
24-Nov	Ohio	69	21-26	L	47%	41%	-12.5	-16.0
4-Dec	vs. Bowling Green	25	14-34	L	6%	0%	-10.6	-8.0
23-Dec	vs. Boise State	37	7-55	L	1%	0%	-46.4	-39.5

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	26.0	86	25.2	47
Points Per Game	31.1	52	27.6	73

2. Ignore the finish

Bowling Green and Boise State were better than NIU in 2015 and would have probably beaten the Huskies regardless of NIU's quarterback. Still, the margins were affected by injuries to starter Drew Hare (Achilles), backup Anthony Maddie (back), and third-string freshman Ryan Graham (leg). By the time Tommy Fiedler was forced to take the field -- head coach Rod Carey elected to keep the redshirt on well-regarded freshman Daniel Santacaterina -- the battle was already lost.

Fiedler threw three interceptions against Bowling Green, and while Graham returned for the Boise State game, he was clearly limited, completing just seven of 21 passes and taking five sacks. (His completions gained 38 yards, and his sacks lost 46.)

When Hare got hurt against Toledo, NIU was in the middle of a great string of performances. The Huskies had struggled mightily in a three-game road trip against Ohio (13 points, 2.6 yards per play), Boston College (14, 2.7), and CMU (19, 3.6). But they had averaged 51 points per game and 6.9 yards per play against bad Ball State, Miami (Ohio), and EMU defenses, and Hare had complete a 67-yard touchdown pass to Tommylee Lewis early in the Toledo game.

Graham led a late-game surge against Toledo and kept the ship afloat, but he got hurt against Ohio, and you see how that affected the numbers above.

Achilles and back injuries are hard to rebound from, but if either Hare or Maddie is at full strength, if Graham is able to build off of solid moments (and forget Boise State ever happened), or if Santacaterina becomes the real deal, the finish to NIU's 2015 doesn't matter going forward.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.22	86	IsoPPP+	94.4	90
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	40.6%	78	Succ. Rt. +	101.4	66
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	32.2	114	Def. FP+	31.1	97
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.7	41	Redzone S&P+	109.7	37
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	24.2		ACTUAL	27	+2.8

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	66	84	66	90
RUSHING	41	95	75	99
PASSING	82	61	50	64
Standard Downs		82	62	87
Passing Downs		86	87	77

Q1 Rk	95	1st Down Rk	95
Q2 Rk	99	2nd Down Rk	89
Q3 Rk	72	3rd Down Rk	53
Q4 Rk	42

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Drew Hare	6'1, 218	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7726	164	257	1962	14	4	63.8%	15	5.5%	6.9
Ryan Graham	6'1, 214	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7752	55	102	691	6	3	53.9%	13	11.3%	4.9
Tommy Fiedler	6'2, 192	So.	NR	NR	21	45	265	2	3	46.7%	4	8.2%	5.1
Anthony Maddie (2014)	6'1, 203	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8292	20	33	227	0	1	60.6%	10	23.3%	4.1
Daniel Santacaterina	6'1, 198	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7933
Anthony Thompson	6'0, 196	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7924

3. A first-stringer for now, and a first-stringer for later

One assumes the NIU offense will remain the NIU offense, at least when it comes to tempo and spread tendencies. But Carey didn't renew offensive coordinator Bob Cole's contract after last season, instead choosing to bring Mike Uremovich back into the fold. The 39-year old Uremovich spent the last three seasons at NC State, coaching for former NIU head man Dave Doeren; he was an NIU grad assistant from 2001-03 and coached NIU running backs during the 2012 Orange Bowl run.

Whatever Uremovich wants to do, however, will require a quarterback.

Carey left no doubt regarding who his first-string QB would be in a perfect, injury-free world:

Now, Drew is our starter. Don’t get anything mixed up here. Drew is our starter. The other three, you know, I think you just have to really base that off production.

Still, recovering from an Achilles rupture takes a while, and with Maddie still working his way back, Graham began the season as NIU's No. 1 QB. Both Maddie in 2014 and Graham in 2015 took far too many sacks and were caught either thinking too hard or trusting their athleticism too much. The NIU offense tends to require QB mobility; that was certainly the case last year, with both Hare and Graham rushing for more than 200 non-sack yards. But you still have to have some pocket presence, and it was lacking for the young Graham last season.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Joel Bouagnon	TB	6'2, 226	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8106	283	1286	18	4.5	4.4	33.2%	0	0
Drew Hare	QB	6'1, 218	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7726	89	332	1	3.7	2.9	38.2%	7	3
Jordan Huff	TB	5'11, 218	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8093	86	653	8	7.6	9.2	41.9%	2	2
Ryan Graham	QB	6'1, 214	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7752	56	228	0	4.1	3.7	35.7%	6	4
Anthony Maddie (2014)	QB	6'1, 203	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8292	34	152	1	4.5	4.6	32.4%	1	0
Aregeros Turner	WR	5'11, 178	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8497	24	152	1	6.3	7.0	45.8%	2	2
Tommy Fiedler	QB	6'2, 192	So.	NR	NR	13	55	0	4.2	2.4	46.2%	0	0
D.J. Brown	RB/WR	5'9, 182	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8430	12	63	1	5.3	4.6	41.7%	0	0
Kenny Golladay	WR	6'4, 200	Sr.	NR	NR	9	14	1	1.6	2.6	11.1%	2	2
Marcus Jones	TB	5'8, 197	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7952	8	109	1	13.6	18.6	50.0%	0	0
Tommylee Lewis	WR					8	20	0	2.5	3.4	37.5%	0	0
Keith Harris Jr.	TB	5'8, 200	Sr.	NR	0.7000
Tre Harbison	TB	5'11, 208	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8649

4. Enough backs?

On paper, Jordan Huff was the most successful running back on the team. NIU's pre-Toledo eruption coincided nicely with a Huff breakout: Against Ball State, Miami, and EMU, he carried 35 times for 279 yards and four touchdowns. He ripped off 159 yards in just eight carries in the semi-upset of WMU as well.

Huff was not listed on the roster this spring. He's still in school, and his status is unclear.

Losing Huff would hurt -- it would mean senior Joel Bouagnon is the only returning back who carried more than 12 times last year. He was neither as efficient nor explosive as Huff, but the staff clearly found him durable and reliable. He carried at least 14 times in every game but the bowl, and he carried 26 or more times in five games. He'll still need to be spelled, however.

Sophomore D.J. Brown is an interesting option, but the former star recruit is currently listed as a receiver after carrying 12 times last fall. Marcus Jones had a 73-yard touchdown run against Miami among his eight freshman carries; he might be the second-stringer by default. Beyond that, however? Hard to say.

The receiving corps is far more stable, as seniors Kenny Golladay, Aregeros Turner, and Chad Beebe are all back. The lanky Golladay had a breakout year; his 73 catches for 1,129 yards are even more impressive when you think about how much the passing game trailed off down the stretch (last three games: nine catches, 94 yards). He came up big against Toledo and WMU and presents a tricky matchup for any MAC corner.

Beyond this senior trio waits quite a few young former three-star recruits: Brown, redshirt freshman Spencer Tears (the jewel of the 2015 class), freshman Andrew Parchment, etc. [Update: running back Tre Harbison transferred to NIU from Virginia, and will have four years of eligibility remaining after he sits out 2016.}

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Kenny Golladay	WR	6'4, 200	Sr.	NR	NR	129	73	1129	56.6%	33.4%	8.8	49.6%	45.7%	1.79
Tommylee Lewis	WR					54	34	398	63.0%	14.0%	7.4	61.1%	38.9%	1.77
Aregeros Turner	WR	5'11, 178	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8497	54	39	343	72.2%	14.0%	6.4	64.8%	53.7%	1.08
Juwan Brescacin	WR					45	24	298	53.3%	11.7%	6.6	51.1%	37.8%	1.53
Desroy Maxwell	TE					29	20	221	69.0%	7.5%	7.6	69.0%	44.8%	1.62
Chad Beebe	WR	5'9, 184	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7539	22	13	193	59.1%	5.7%	8.8	40.9%	50.0%	1.51
Joel Bouagnon	TB	6'2, 226	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8106	19	13	131	68.4%	4.9%	6.9	36.8%	31.6%	1.82
Shane Wimann	TE	6'4, 254	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7300	12	11	98	91.7%	3.1%	8.2	83.3%	83.3%	0.95
Ezra Saffold	WR	5'7, 168	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7790	7	5	44	71.4%	1.8%	6.3	85.7%	42.9%	1.19
Christian Blake	WR	6'1, 182	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7948	7	5	44	71.4%	1.8%	6.3	42.9%	57.1%	0.47
Clayton Glasper	WR	6'4, 228	Sr.	NR	0.7000	4	1	7	25.0%	1.0%	1.8	0.0%	25.0%	0.71
Jordan Huff	TB	5'11, 218	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8093	3	2	12	66.7%	0.8%	4.0	100.0%	33.3%	1.36
Ryan Stendler	TE	6'4, 257	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000
D.J. Brown	WR	5'9, 182	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8430
Spencer Tears	WR	6'0, 180	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8622
Daniel Crawford	TE	6'1, 240	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8088
Andrew Parchment	WR	6'3, 180	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8076
Mitchell Brinkman	TE	6'3, 235	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7857

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	99.5	2.61	3.1	36.4%	66.1%	19.8%	84.6	5.0%	7.4%
Rank	74	108	77	94	63	79	88	70	64

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Aidan Conlon	LG					14	56	2015 1st All-MAC
Andrew Ness	C					14	56	2015 1st All-MAC
Levon Myers	LT	6'5, 309	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7863	14	14	2015 2nd All-MAC
Max Scharping	RT	6'6, 311	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7826	14	14
Josh Ruka	RG	6'5, 330	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7726	7	7
Lincoln Howard	RT	6'5, 305	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	6	6
Ron Brown	RG	6'3, 348	Sr.	NR	NR	1	1
Dale Brown	LT	6'3, 302	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7759	0	0
Shane Evans	LG	6'4, 302	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8322	0	0
Luke Shively	C	6'2, 288	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	0	0
Nathan Veloz	OL	6'4, 316	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8263
Jordan Steckler	OL	6'4, 297	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8095
Vincent Hughes	OL	6'4, 270	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8093
Austin Warner	OL	6'4, 265	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7824
Brayden Patton	OL	6'4, 265	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7757

5. Experience vs. experience

NIU basically returns three of last year's five starters up front. Senior Levon Myers and sophomore Max Scharping started every game, and seniors Josh Ruka and lincoln Howard basically split half a season each in the lineup. Including one start from senior Ron Brown, you've got five guys returning with starting experience, a solid total.

On the other hand, the two guys NIU lost -- guard Aidan Conlan, center Andrew Ness -- combined to start 112 games, eight full seasons' worth. If they had been starting next to three true freshmen last year, you'd have still had to call the NIU "seasoned and experienced" because of these two. Losing them means losing two stalwarts, the final remaining holdovers from the Orange Bowl squad. That hurts.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.17	22	IsoPPP+	104.3	49
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	41.5%	65	Succ. Rt. +	95.3	84
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	31.5	37	Off. FP+	32.1	25
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	3.8	18	Redzone S&P+	108.3	32
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	24.4		ACTUAL	29.0	+4.6

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	87	63	84	49
RUSHING	71	63	85	47
PASSING	91	66	80	64
Standard Downs		75	98	57
Passing Downs		52	54	47

Q1 Rk	68	1st Down Rk	62
Q2 Rk	59	2nd Down Rk	43
Q3 Rk	103	3rd Down Rk	43
Q4 Rk	8

6. A Kevin Kane defense

Kane is young enough to have a Rivals recruiting profile. The Kansas City product was a heady two-star linebacker in Mark Mangino's first signing class at Kansas. He recorded 65 tackles and two picks during Kansas' Fort Worth Bowl run in 2005.

Living in Big 12 country, I seem to recall "he's like a coach on the field" quotes about Kane. A decade later, he's a defensive coordinator. He was NIU's linebackers coach from 2011-14 before serving for one year in the same position at his alma mater. When NIU DC Jay Niemann took the DC job at Rutgers, Carey called Kane back to DeKalb.

The best defenses during Kane's time at NIU were small but speedy; they were forced to take on a bit of a bend-don't-break identity but took full advantage of pass rush opportunities. They let you establish control on standard downs but dominated on passing downs.

The 2015 unit was a bit more bendy than preferred and didn't have nearly the same pass rush presence as, say, the 2012 Orange Bowl team. Still, the Huskies shut down scoring opportunities and prevented big plays. They had more size than normal up front, and a good field position game led to a No. 47 Def. S&P+ rating, NIU's best since S&P+ ratings started in 2005.

Kane's task will be to combine these solid bend-don't-break principles with a few more passing downs stops. Easy, right?

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	91.3	3.01	3.44	37.0%	80.6%	13.3%	88.7	3.6%	6.4%
Rank	100	85	89	51	124	128	84	105	85

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Perez Ford	DE					13	33.0	3.7%	6.5	5.0	0	0	1	0
Cameron Clinton-Earl	DE					14	30.0	3.4%	7.0	3.0	0	1	0	0
Ladell Fleming	DE	6'0, 236	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	14	24.5	2.8%	5.0	3.0	0	0	1	0
Corey Thomas	DT	6'2, 306	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	11	19.0	2.1%	1.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
William Lee	NG	6'2, 304	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7726	14	18.5	2.1%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Ben Compton	DT					13	18.0	2.0%	5.0	3.0	0	0	0	0
Mario Jones	DT	6'0, 286	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8125	13	13.5	1.5%	1.5	0.5	0	1	0	0
Ruben Dunbar	DE	6'3, 270	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8488	11	12.5	1.4%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Austin Smaha	DE	6'1, 232	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7383	8	7.5	0.8%	2.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Rajshawn Mosley	DE	6'2, 261	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7783	8	5.5	0.6%	0.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Russell Chambers	NG	6'3, 285	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7685	11	5.5	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Herlandez Corley	DT	6'2, 278	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7600	7	3.5	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Marcus Kelly	DT	6'2, 271	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8081
Alton Meeks	DE	6'3, 244	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7889
Jack Heflin	DE	6'3, 245	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7998

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Boomer Mays	MLB					14	93.5	10.6%	5.0	0.5	1	4	1	0
Sean Folliard	OLB	6'2, 231	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7394	13	66.5	7.5%	8.5	1.0	1	4	1	0
Renard Cheren	OLB	6'0, 224	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7706	13	51.5	5.8%	5.5	1.5	0	1	0	0
Bobby Jones IV	OLB	6'0, 222	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	NR	14	46.0	5.2%	4.0	2.0	0	1	0	0
Jamaal Payton	MLB	6'0, 226	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	14	34.0	3.8%	4.5	1.0	0	1	0	0
Jawuan Johnson	OLB	5'11, 209	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7733	13	24.0	2.7%	2.5	1.0	1	0	0	0
Alex Schwab	LB	6'1, 223	Jr.	NR	NR	12	9.5	1.1%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Josh Corcoran	LB	6'3, 221	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8189	14	9.5	1.1%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kyle Pugh	LB	5'11, 228	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8281
Sutton Smith	LB	6'0, 195	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8088
Andrew Gregory	LB	6'1, 197	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7757
Corey Lersch	LB	6'3, 210	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7884

7. Still plenty of weapons on the edge

Kane should be able to do pretty good things with NIU's linebacking corp. Stalwart middle man Boomer Mays is gone, but the outside positions are stocked with up to four guys who could do some damage: senior Sean Folliard, junior Bobby Jones IV, and sophomores Renard Cheren and Jawuan Johnson. The foursome combined for 20 tackles for loss last season. If senior Jamaal Payton or one of the OLBs is able to man the middle effectively, this should be one of the better linebacking corps in the MAC. And they'll get help from an experienced set of big tackles.

The quantity of OLBs is good because defensive end is a bit of an unknown. The top two are gone, and while senior Ladell Fleming has flashed some potential, it's hard to say who else might be able to fill a play-making role. And for as shaky as the pass rush was (84th in Adj. Sack Rate), havoc against the run was even more problematic: NIU ranked 128th, dead last, in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line). Folliard had 7.5 non-sack TFLs, a solid total; he might need to double that this year.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Marlon Moore	FS					14	86.0	9.7%	1.5	0	2	7	2	0
Brandon Mayes	SS	5'11, 193	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7842	14	74.0	8.4%	1	0	3	4	0	0
Paris Logan	CB					12	45.0	5.1%	2	0	1	11	0	0
Shawun Lurry	CB	5'8, 178	Jr.	NR	NR	14	39.0	4.4%	0.5	0	9	15	0	0
Albert Smalls	CB	6'1, 197	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7483	14	33.0	3.7%	0	0	1	10	0	0
Mycial Allen	SS	5'11, 198	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8250	14	17.0	1.9%	1	0	2	0	0	0
Anthony Brooks	CB	5'11, 191	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	11	14.0	1.6%	0	0	0	4	0	0
Elijah Campbell	FS	6'0, 195	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	NR	13	4.5	0.5%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Tifonte Hunt	CB	5'9, 178	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7556	13	3.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Mayomi Olootu	CB	5'9, 180	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8215
Jackson Abresch	S	6'1, 207	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000
Trequan Smith	S	5'11, 176	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7800
Jalen Embry	CB	6'0, 184	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8100
Daniel Isom	DB	5'10, 173	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8005

8. Replacing nine-year veteran Marlon Moore

Marlon Moore recorded two picks, four breakups, and 34.5 tackles for the Orange Bowl squad of 2012, defensed 16 passes in 2013-14 while moving from corner to safety, and did a little bit of everything as a senior leader in 2015. He was a stalwart in the back, and corner Paris Logan was a three-year difference maker as well. Losing them means losing two extreme veteran play-makers.

Still, that's all NIU loses in the back. Corners Shawun Lurry and Albert Smalls combined for 10 picks and 25 breakups last year as part of a secondary that figured out how to still get hands on passes despite the lack of a pass rush. Junior safeties Brandon Mayes and Mycial Allen also played steady roles in the back. And if the front seven can figure out how to be a little bit more disruptive, the aggressive secondary should figure out how to take advantage.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Jacob Ambrose	5'10, 175	Sr.	74	37.9	3	26	15	55.4%
Ryan Graham	6'1, 214	So.	4	34.0	2	0	1	25.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Christian Hagan	6'0, 189	Jr.	53	59.1	13	3	24.5%
Josh Orne	6'0, 218	Sr.	30	53.3	3	5	10.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Christian Hagan	6'0, 189	Jr.	52-54	10-11	90.9%	4-7	57.1%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Aregeros Turner	KR	5'11, 178	Sr.	45	26.2	2
Paris Logan	KR			3	23.3	0
Chad Beebe	PR	5'9, 184	Sr.	14	8.5	0
Tommylee Lewis	PR			3	5.3	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	60
Field Goal Efficiency	36
Punt Return Success Rate	27
Kick Return Success Rate	42
Punt Success Rate	109
Kickoff Success Rate	100

9. An interesting, inefficient approach

The return game appears to be in pretty good hands with Aregeros Turner (who returned two kickoffs for scores) and Chad Beebe. Plus, place-kicker Chistian Hagen turned into a mostly reliable weapon. That's three-fifths of a strong special teams unit. Now ... about those legs. NIU didn't allow big returns in 2015 and seemed to prefer the higher-and-shorter method on both kickoffs and punts. But they were a little bit too short. From an efficiency standpoint, NIU's punting and kickoffs were both subpar.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
3-Sep	at Wyoming	110	7.9	68%
10-Sep	at South Florida	41	-10.9	26%
17-Sep	San Diego State	55	-0.7	48%
24-Sep	Western Illinois	NR	22.9	91%
1-Oct	at Ball State	101	4.4	60%
8-Oct	at Western Michigan	65	-6.2	36%
15-Oct	Central Michigan	85	6.0	64%
22-Oct	Buffalo	109	14.5	80%
1-Nov	Bowling Green	60	-0.1	50%
9-Nov	Toledo	58	-0.3	49%
16-Nov	at Eastern Michigan	121	4.3	60%
25-Nov	at Kent State	104	4.8	61%
Projected wins: 6.9

Five-Year F/+ Rk	5.4% (51)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	117 / 122
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	2 / 0.2
2015 TO Luck/Game	+0.7
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	74% (85%, 63%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	8.1 (-0.1)

10. What are you going to do, bet against them?

We know what's going to happen here. I've already called Central Michigan a MAC West contender. I will say the same about WMU and Toledo. I will probably rank at least one of them (and perhaps more) above NIU in next week's MAC power rankings.

And then NIU will go out and win a seventh straight division crown.

The Huskies are certainly going to make a go of it. The schedule's nice; CMU and Toledo at home, with three of the conferences worse teams (Ball State, EMU, Kent State) on the road. The injury bug should be kinder, just as a regression to the mean. And the overall experience will be strong.

On paper, NIU hasn't been the best team in the West for the last couple of years, but the Huskies have for the most part saved their biggest moments for their most important division games. I will probably pick the streak to end, and I will probably feel dumb about it in December.