Death, taxes, and Toledo football falling just short of a MAC title shot. What about 2016?

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year's team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year's roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

1. The succession plan

In the parity-happy MAC, almost everybody gets to win occasionally, and almost everybody has to deal with cyclical comeuppance. The level of talent and revenue from top to bottom is perhaps closer in this conference than in any other (the Sun Belt is the only other conference in the race), and so much depends on coaching hires and development.

The exceptions: EMU almost never gets to be good, and Toledo almost never has to be bad.

Since Chuck Stobart led the Rockets to a California Bowl win and a 9-3 finish in 1981, they have dealt with just seven losing records in 35 years, and four of them came in a four-year stretch in the last decade (2006-09), when they were dealing with the fallout from a point-shaving incident. Before 2006, they had been to four bowls in five years and hadn't finished below .500 since 1993. Since 2009, they've been bowling five times in six years and have won at least nine games four times.

Since then-AD Al Bohl fired Dan Simrell in 1989 for 'only' going 6-5 (which caused an outcry), order of succession has worked wonders. Bohl hired Nick Saban, who went 9-2 in his lone season then left to become defensive coordinator of the Cleveland Browns. On his way out the door, Saban recommended another former Washington assistant, his good friend (and fellow Kent State alum) Gary Pinkel.

Pinkel stayed for 10 years and became the school's all-time winningest coach, then left to become the winningest coach at Missouri. His defensive coordinator, Tom Amstutz, took over. That worked beautifully for five years (Amstutz had a 45-18 record in that time) until point-shaving and program maintenance became an issue.

So Toledo started a new chain. Former Bowling Green and Oklahoma State defensive coordinator Tim Beckman came in and, after a one-year breaking-in period, began to win again. After three years, he left for the Illinois job and was replaced by young offensive coordinator Matt Campbell. Campbell stayed for four years, won nine games three times, and left for Iowa State. His replacement: young Toledo offensive coordinator Jason Candle.

A coaching hire is a serious crapshoot. It is difficult to know whether someone will work out, and it seems when we're sure we know the answer, we're wrong.

At least, that's the case when Toledo isn't involved. If we count Amstutz as a solid hire -- if a hire produces five good years out of the gates, that's really all you can ask for -- then Toledo has made somewhere between five and 10 good hires in a row. The program is built, the culture is in place, and the order of succession is clear.

It feels easy to assume Candle (who is already 1-0 after leading the team to an easy bowl win over a good Temple) will do well, win for a few years, then head off for a power conference job. And his replacement (offensive coordinator Brian Wright, perhaps?) will take over and win, too.

There's still room for growth, however. As strong as the Rockets have been since Beckman took over -- the Rockets have finished in the S&P+ top 70 for six straight years and have twice finished in the top 25 (21st in 2015) -- they haven't won a MAC West title since 2004. They have graded out better than NIU on paper for four of the last five years, but they have consistently figured out a way to stumble in the Huskies' presence. They've lost six games in a row to NIU (four times by one possession), and NIU has won the division every year in that span.

To say the least, this has held the program back, from both a perceptions standpoint and one of morale. Toledo is once again projected ahead of NIU. But without a November 9 win in DeKalb, it might once again feel like the season came up one step short of greatness.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 10-2 | Adj. Record: 10-2 | Final F/+ Rk: 20 | Final S&P+ Rk: 21
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
12-Sep	vs. Arkansas	11	16-12	W	52%	34%	+20.4	+25.5
19-Sep	Iowa State	79	30-23	W	48%	57%	-2.3	-0.5
26-Sep	Arkansas State	71	37-7	W	94%	100%	+22.4	+22.5
3-Oct	at Ball State	110	24-10	W	84%	100%	+5.1	+7.5
10-Oct	Kent State	109	38-7	W	94%	100%	+3.4	+16.5
17-Oct	Eastern Michigan	122	63-20	W	80%	99%	+14.9	+14.0
24-Oct	at Massachusetts	100	51-35	W	66%	87%	-0.4	+1.5
3-Nov	Northern Illinois	66	27-32	L	35%	22%	-16.7	-12.0
10-Nov	at Central Michigan	67	28-23	W	83%	95%	+2.1	+8.0
17-Nov	at Bowling Green	25	44-28	W	82%	85%	+21.9	+24.0
27-Nov	Western Michigan	51	30-35	L	51%	44%	-16.1	-13.0
22-Dec	vs. Temple	45	32-17	W	93%	100%	+12.1

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	33.3	39	20.4	21
Points Per Game	35.0	31	20.8	21

2. Two eggs

Toledo has gotten used to playing the what-if game. In five of six years during this NIU losing streak, a win over the Huskies would have given the Rockets the division crown. But while each year has been twinged with regret, 2015 carried a little bit more.

Toledo was awesome. The Rockets were one of only two teams to hold a fantastic Arkansas offense under 21 points (the other: Alabama). They followed that with a win over Iowa State and a romp over what turned out to be a strong Arkansas State. Of their six MAC wins, five were by at least 14. They ran away from Temple late in the Boca Raton Bowl.

But mixed within these great results were two rotten ones. First came the annual stumble. NIU was on its backup quarterback, and Toledo took a 10-point lead in the first quarter, but NIU managed to score 16 of the game's final 19 points and win while getting outgained.

Toledo got a lifeline. A late Husky loss to Ohio opened the door. All the Rockets had to do was beat WMU at home, and they'd take the West. And they lost, 35-30, again while outgaining their opponent.

Toledo was mostly awesome in 10 wins. The Rockets were both subpar and a little unlucky in two losses. Maybe that luck turns around one day.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.36	22	IsoPPP+	108.1	41
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	41.8%	66	Succ. Rt. +	98.3	80
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	30.3	77	Def. FP+	29.2	56
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.4	72	Redzone S&P+	96.6	93
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	19.8		ACTUAL	14	-5.8

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	30	53	80	41
RUSHING	28	57	81	39
PASSING	40	56	71	51
Standard Downs		77	96	65
Passing Downs		32	53	25

Q1 Rk	57	1st Down Rk	32
Q2 Rk	71	2nd Down Rk	78
Q3 Rk	67	3rd Down Rk	25
Q4 Rk	23

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Phillip Ely					226	403	2965	23	10	56.1%	3	0.7%	7.3
Logan Woodside (2014)	6'2, 210	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8042	185	296	2263	19	8	62.5%	9	3.0%	7.2
Michael Julian	6'5, 215	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8201	5	7	71	1	0	71.4%	0	0.0%	10.1
Quentin Gibson	6'3, 195	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8223
Mitchell Guadagni	6'2, 200	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8296
Eli Peters	6'3, 210	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8432

3. Succession plan, part 2

Alabama transfer Phillip Ely beat out Logan Woodside in a spirited battle for the starting job in 2014, but he suffered a season-ending knee injury just two games and 68 passes into his season, so Woodside took over and thrived. He produced a 142.5 passer rating and a 19-to-8 TD-to-INT ratio, and he would have done even better if he hadn't been slowed by an ankle injury late in the year.

In 2015, Campbell pulled off what you or I would attempt in a video game: He started Ely again and redshirted Woodside. Ely did pretty well -- an iffy early-season completion rate (48 percent through three games) -- dragged down his passer rating, but he was fantastic thereafter (NIU game aside, of course).

Ely was denied a sixth year of eligibility, but Toledo loses a starting quarterback and returns a starting quarterback.

Toledo now has four QBs on the roster who a) were three-star recruits and b) have been on campus for at least one year. But Woodside is the man, and one assumes he will do well. [Update: Illinois quarterback Eli Peters transferred to Toledo, but will sit out his freshman season because he enrolled early.]

Granted, he's playing under a new coordinator, but only because his old one is now the head coach. Wright will bring his own tweaks, but Woodside has an accurate arm, an experienced line, and a loaded set of skill position guys in his favor. He'll probably produce strong numbers once again.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Kareem Hunt	RB	6'0, 225	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8033	178	973	12	5.5	5.8	39.3%	0	0
Terry Swanson	RB	5'10, 202	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7963	143	923	7	6.5	7.5	37.8%	0	0
Damion Jones-Moore	RB	5'7, 190	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7934	83	410	5	4.9	4.2	37.3%	0	0
Marc Remy	RB	6'0, 195	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	NR	30	179	0	6.0	4.4	46.7%	0	0
Phillip Ely	QB					23	35	1	1.5	2.3	21.7%	5	0
Michael Julian	QB	6'5, 215	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8201	6	64	0	10.7	3.9	100.0%	0	0
Corey Jones	WR	5'9, 165	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8893	4	27	0	6.8	8.5	50.0%	2	1
Brad Smith	RB	5'8, 195	So.	NR	NR	4	14	0	3.5	0.5	50.0%	0	0
Art Thompkins	RB	5'8, 175	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7992
Ronnie Jones	RB	6'1, 185	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8126
Shakif Seymour	RB	5'11, 215	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7954

4. Efficiency helps

Toledo had to replace all five starters from its offensive line last year (including three all-conference performers), and there were some predictable growing pains with the new guys. Toledo fell from 21st to 91st in Adj. Line Yards, from fourth to 66th in opportunity rate, from 58th to 95th in power success rate, and from eighth to 42nd in stuff rate.

The line did the backs no favors, in other words. The trio of Kareem Hunt, Terry Swanson, and Damion Jones-Moore all went from having an opportunity rate of 48 percent or better (Hunt was at an incredible 53 percent in 2014) to falling below 40 percent. This was still a decent run game this trio of backs is as good as anyone's, but the Rockets were far less efficient and far more reliant on big plays.

In theory, this shifts upward in 2016. The line returns four of five starters, including all-conference tackle Storm Norton (who keyed fantastic pass protection) and introduces a new load of three-star youngsters into the rotation. Meanwhile, Hunt, Swanson, and Jones-Moore are all back, as is senior Marc Remy. The foursome averaged 36 carries and 207 yards per game last year, and that was with inefficiency. The same number of carries could generate 220-plus this year. And Toledo will find itself in fewer second-and-longs.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Corey Jones	SLOT	5'9, 165	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8893	86	55	577	64.0%	21.8%	6.7	59.3%	45.3%	1.43
Alonzo Russell	WR-X					75	36	618	48.0%	19.0%	8.2	42.7%	44.0%	1.82
Cody Thompson	WR-Z	6'1, 202	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7483	66	37	825	56.1%	16.7%	12.5	57.6%	51.5%	2.25
Michael Roberts	TE	6'4, 265	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8125	38	21	234	55.3%	9.6%	6.2	44.7%	55.3%	1.07
Diontae Johnson	WR-X	5'11, 175	So.	2 stars (5.3)	NR	26	14	237	53.8%	6.6%	9.1	57.7%	42.3%	2.16
Kishon Wilcher	SLOT					24	12	125	50.0%	6.1%	5.2	62.5%	41.7%	1.18
Jon'Vea Johnson	WR	6'0, 183	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8330	17	8	101	47.1%	4.3%	5.9	47.1%	41.2%	1.28
Terry Swanson	RB	5'10, 202	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7963	15	13	71	86.7%	3.8%	4.7	73.3%	53.3%	0.77
Kareem Hunt	RB	6'0, 225	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8033	14	11	45	78.6%	3.5%	3.2	42.9%	7.1%	3.77
Marc Remy	RB	6'0, 195	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	NR	10	9	42	90.0%	2.5%	4.2	40.0%	30.0%	1.22
Alex Zmolik	TE					9	6	51	66.7%	2.3%	5.7	66.7%	66.7%	0.88
Darryl Richards	WR	6'3, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	NR	3	2	40	66.7%	0.8%	13.3	66.7%	66.7%	2.16
Zach Yousey	WR	6'1, 190	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7633
Marcus Whitfield	WR	5'11, 178	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8148
Andrew Davis	WR	6'4, 192	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7973
Neru N'Shaka	WR	5'11, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8252
Calvin Jackson	WR	5'10, 165	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8060
Desmond Phillips	WR	5'11, 170	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8050

5. More than enough receivers

2015 Ely produced a few more big plays than 2014 Woodside did, but Woodside was the more efficient QB of the two. It will be interesting to see what that means for this year's receiving corps. Corey Jones was more successful with Woodside -- 2014: 69 percent catch rate and 12.4 yards per catch; 2015: 64 percent and 10.5, respectively -- but Cody Thompson was a wonderful big-play threat with Ely.

We'll see about chemistry, but experience is on Toledo's side. Eight of last year's top 10 targets are back, including Jones, Thompson, big tight end Michael Roberts. Sophomores Diontae Johnson and Jon'Vea Johnson might be ready to earn a few more targets as well.

Jones was a frequent target on both second-and-long and third-and-short last season; if the latter is more frequent than the former -- and with a more efficient run game, it should be -- one assumes both his numbers and Woodside's numbers will be strong.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	96	2.96	2.38	38.9%	61.4%	17.9%	478.6	0.5%	1.7%
Rank	91	55	118	66	95	42	1	1	2

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Storm Norton	LT	6'8, 306	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7976	12	15	2015 1st All-MAC
Paul Perschon	LG	6'6, 310	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8035	12	12
Ruben Carter	C					12	12
Elijah Nkansah	RT	6'6, 295	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7733	12	12
Mike Ebert	RG	6'6, 298	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7880	6	6
Nate Jeppesen	LG	6'3, 292	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7700	6	6
Sami Kassem	RG	6'4, 320	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7833	0	0
Brant Weiss	RT	6'6, 280	Jr.	NR	NR	0	0
Bill Weber	OL	6'5, 305	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7719	0	0
Cameron Bell	LT	6'8, 360	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8382
Bryce Harris	C	6'5, 285	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8031
Chandler Cotterman	OL	6'4, 305	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8189
Jordan Fair	OL	6'5, 281	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7962
Brandon Heidecker	OL	6'6, 309	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7941
Luke Doerger	OL	6'3, 300	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8091

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.19	30	IsoPPP+	117.6	19
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	37.8%	28	Succ. Rt. +	112.6	27
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	32.4	23	Off. FP+	32.8	14
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	3.4	10	Redzone S&P+	131.6	6
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	29.6		ACTUAL	22.0	-7.6

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	46	18	27	19
RUSHING	10	8	21	4
PASSING	107	30	36	30
Standard Downs		13	25	6
Passing Downs		37	38	40

Q1 Rk	29	1st Down Rk	44
Q2 Rk	23	2nd Down Rk	14
Q3 Rk	19	3rd Down Rk	30
Q4 Rk	68

6. A crafty hire

Candle went outside of the line of succession in selecting his defensive coordinator, but his hire made all sorts of sense. Brian George spent the last five years at Kent State -- he was the defensive line coach the whole time and spent the last three seasons as defensive coordinator.

George's half-decade in Kent produced two top-30 Def. S&P+ rankings and four years in the top 80. He figured out ways to create disruption up front with what were sometimes undersized starters; last year, Kent State ranked eighth in Adj. Sack Rate.

His year at Toledo will require some retooling. Gone are five of the Rocket's top seven linemen and four of five starters in the secondary.

Toledo's run defense was fantastic last year, and if George can create a disruptive presence in the front, the front seven should be strong enough to overcome turnover in the back. But he faces some pressure to produce right out of the gates.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	129.6	1.97	3.13	34.0%	71.8%	28.0%	79.7	4.4%	4.3%
Rank	3	1	57	23	99	4	97	89	115

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Trent Voss	DE					12	50.5	7.2%	9.5	1.0	0	5	2	0
Allen Covington	DE					11	35.5	5.1%	12.0	4.5	0	2	1	0
Orion Jones	DT					12	32.5	4.6%	12.0	6.0	0	0	0	1
Treyvon Hester	DT	6'4, 305	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8000	12	25.5	3.6%	6.5	2.5	0	1	1	0
John Stepec	DE	6'3, 260	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8190	12	18.0	2.6%	5.5	3.0	0	1	0	0
Keenen Gibbs	DE					11	14.5	2.1%	3.5	3.0	0	1	1	0
Tre James	DE					12	4.5	0.6%	3.0	3.0	0	0	1	0
Marquise Moore	DT	6'0, 300	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8033	12	2.5	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Olasunkanmi Adeniyi	DE	6'2, 250	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7733	7	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Chris Collins	DT					9	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Earl Moore (Miami)	DT	6'1, 305	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8603
Daniel Davis	DE	6'3, 260	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7500
Tuzar Skipper	DE	6'4, 245	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7889
Jhonny Williams (Notre Dame)	DE	6'5, 260	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8401
Obi Anunike	DE	6'4, 215	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8297
Edrick Mathews	DT	6'3, 276	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8228
David Hood	DT	6'1, 273	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7924

7. A drastically underrated line rebuilds

Third in Adj. Line Yards, fourth in stuff rate, eighth in Rushing S&P+ 23rd in opportunity rate. Pick your adverb: Toledo's defensive line was drastically, substantially, seriously, extremely, desperately underrated last year.

Now begins the rebuild, especially on the edge. Four of the top five ends are gone after combining for 28 tackles for loss, 11.5 sacks, and eight pass breakups. Defensive tackle and sacks leader Orion Jones is also out the door.

A couple of difference makers return: end John Stepec and big tackle Treyvon Hester were both in the rotation last year and combined for 12 TFLs of their own. But after that, it's hard to say who will be involved and who will thrive. Tackle Marquise Moore was a contributor in 2013 and began 2014 as a starter before injury, but he barely played last year. Miami transfer Earl Moore and Notre Dame transfer Jhonny Williams could join the rotation, as could JUCO transfer Tuzar Skipper.

Even with a couple of power-conference additions, it's fair to assume the line will regress. But a solid, experienced linebacking corps could make up at least a little bit of the difference. Toledo loses a starter in Chase Murdock but returns basically 1.5 thanks to Jaylen Coleman, who started half the year before injury.Between Coleman, Woodley, sophomores Richard Olekanma and Tyler Taafe, and Florida transfer Jeremi Powell, there should be enough options to produce a strong linebacking corps.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Chase Murdock	MIKE					12	69.5	9.9%	8.0	0.0	0	3	2	0
Ja'Wuan Woodley	WILL	5'11, 233	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7800	12	36.5	5.2%	6.5	2.0	1	0	2	0
Jaylen Coleman	LB	6'0, 235	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8310	6	34.5	4.9%	2.5	0.0	1	1	1	0
Jack Linch	LB	6'0, 218	Jr.	NR	NR	11	14.5	2.1%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Richard Olekanma	WILL	6'2, 240	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7733	12	9.0	1.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jeremi Powell (Florida)	LB	6'0, 224	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9147	7	8.0	1.1%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Tyler Taafe	MIKE	6'1, 221	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7994	12	7.5	1.1%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Zach Quinn	LB	6'3, 225	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7959	10	5.5	0.8%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Josh High	LB	6'0, 222	Sr.	NR	NR	4	4.0	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Anthony Davis	LB	6'0, 190	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8519

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Cheatham Norrils	CB					12	55.5	7.9%	3.5	0	3	13	0	0
DeJuan Rogers	FS	6'1, 191	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8242	10	54.5	7.8%	1	0	1	11	3	1
Rolan Milligan	NB					11	41.0	5.9%	4	0	2	3	3	0
Chaz Whittaker	SS					12	38.0	5.4%	0	0	2	3	1	0
Christian Dukes	CB					12	24.5	3.5%	0	0	0	4	0	0
Connery Swift	NB	5'11, 195	Sr.	NR	NR	12	22.0	3.1%	0.5	0	0	3	0	0
Trevon Mathis	CB	6'0, 175	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7847	11	19.5	2.8%	1	0	1	8	0	0
Delando Johnson	SS	6'2, 200	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8731	12	18.5	2.6%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Juwan Haynes	CB					11	15.5	2.2%	0	0	1	2	0	0
Josh Teachey	NB	5'11, 172	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7774	9	13.0	1.9%	2.5	1	0	7	0	0
Kennedy Frazier	DB	6'1, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8059	7	4.5	0.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cameron Mattison	DB	6'1, 202	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7685	2	2.5	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Kadar Hollman	DB	6'1, 185	So.	NR	NR	2	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jordan Martin	DB	6'2, 205	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8500
Aaron Covington	CB	5'9, 175	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8560
Dedarallo Blue	NB	6'0, 195	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8228
Keelon Roberts	CB	5'11, 170	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8046
Justin Clark	CB	5'11, 165	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7857

8. Wanted: one more CB

Looking at what Toledo lost and looking at what the Rockets return can tell two very different stories.

What the Rockets lost: cornerbacks Cheatham Norrils, Christian Dukes, and Juwan Haynes (combined: 3.5 TFLs, 4 INTs, 19 PBUs), strong safety Chaz Whittaker, nickelback Rolan Milligan. That's quite a bit, especially considering returning production in the secondary tends to have a bigger impact on your defense than production from the front seven.

What the Rockets return: free safety DeJuan Rogers (14 passes defensed), nickels Connery Swift and Josh Teachey (combined: 3 TFLs, 10 PBUs), corner Trevon mathis (nine passes defensed), safety Delando Johnson, plus three-star redshirt freshman Aaron Covington and a pair of three-star true freshmen.

In terms of raw materials, Toledo has quite a bit to be excited about. Teachey was only on the field long enough to record 13 tackles but in that span managed to make 2.5 stops behind the line and get hands on seven passes. Johnson has another year to polish the star-recruit potential he had in high school. Rogers has been around the block.

The odds of a good starting four or five emerging are pretty strong, but you have to worry about depth. An injury or two could make this unit too green to succeed.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Nick Ellis	5'11, 170	Sr.	44	39.4	3	12	14	59.1%
Michael Julian	6'5, 215	Jr.	1	36.0	0	0	0	0.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Samuel Vucelich	5'11, 185	Jr.	44	57.0	5	4	11.4%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Jameson Vest	5'9, 203	So.	49-50	16-21	76.2%	3-6	50.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Diontae Johnson	KR	5'11, 175	So.	32	22.8	0
Kishon Wilcher	KR			6	18.2	0
Corey Jones	PR	5'9, 165	Sr.	19	10.2	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	108
Field Goal Efficiency	92
Punt Return Success Rate	8
Kick Return Success Rate	51
Punt Success Rate	91
Kickoff Success Rate	122

9. Kicks were costly

With Diontae Johnson on kicks and Corey Jones on punts, Toledo's return game was solid in 2015. Unfortunately, anything involving a Toledo player kicking the ball was a bit dicey. Jameson Vest was a decent place-kicker but missed or two too many kicks inside of 40 yards (you'd like your kicker to be over 80 percent on those). But Samuel Vucelich's kickoffs never reached the end znoe, and while Nick Ellis' kicks were often high and unreturnable, they also weren't very long. And the returns Toledo did allow averaged 8.6 yards (71st). That everybody is back in special teams is both a good thing and ... a less good thing.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
3-Sep	at Arkansas State	89	3.8	59%
10-Sep	Maine	NR	28.8	95%
17-Sep	Fresno State	94	12.1	76%
30-Sep	at BYU	35	-8.2	32%
8-Oct	at Eastern Michigan	121	14.8	80%
15-Oct	Bowling Green	60	3.8	59%
22-Oct	Central Michigan	85	9.8	72%
27-Oct	Ohio	95	12.3	76%
2-Nov	at Akron	97	6.6	65%
9-Nov	at Northern Illinois	79	0.3	51%
16-Nov	Ball State	101	15.2	81%
25-Nov	at Western Michigan	65	-2.3	45%
Projected wins: 7.9

Five-Year F/+ Rk	15.3% (36)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	87 / 84
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	8 / 9.7
2015 TO Luck/Game	-0.7
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	43% (44%, 43%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	9.2 (0.8)

10. Favored in 10 games

Toledo almost certainly won't be as good as last year. An offense that ranked 39th should improve -- it really could be dynamite -- but even with a good coordinator hire, there's probably too much to replace on that 21st-ranked defense for to avoid overall regression.

S&P+ projects the Rockets a conservative 58th overall, both because of the losses at QB and DB and because the inclusion of recruiting rankings in the projections always creates a regression-to-the-mean effect.

But 58th might be good enough to make the Rockets the class of the MAC, or close to it. Toledo ranks first in the conference and is given at least a 45 percent chance of winning in 11 of 12 games.

Of course, Toledo hasn't had recent trouble playing like one of the best teams in this conference. The Rockets have been a consistent upper-tier presence since Beckman's second year, but NIU has constantly gotten in the way. This will be a good team once again, but UT's success in basically two games (at NIU, at WMU) and possibly a third (CMU at home) will determine how fans view it.