How does Bowling Green follow up on its best football team ever?

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year's team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year's roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

1. Stability is overrated

Bowling Green doesn't sit still well. Like Ball State, the Falcons tend to soar pretty high, then fall pretty low, with quick succession. And they've been doing this for a while.

They went 11-1 in 1985, 2-8-1 in 1988, and 11-1 again in 1991. After a period of sustained success (36-8-2 from 1991-94) under Gary Blackney, they hit a period of sustained lull under the same coach (19-36 from 1996-2000). They rose under Urban Meyer and Gregg Brandon (37-12 from 2001-04), then fell under Brandon (18-19 from 2006-08). They went 2-10 under Dave Clawson in 2010, then 10-4 under Clawson three years later.

Bowling Green does not sign up for 6-6. The Falcons have either won or lost at least eight games in 11 of the last 15 seasons.

That said, last year's high was particularly high. Going by SRS, Bowling Green's 2015 team was quite easily its best ever. Going by S&P+, it's the same story. The Falcons were in the 86th percentile last season; even through all of these peaks and valleys, they had only crossed over 80 percent twice before -- in 1985 (11-1 under Dennis Stolz) and 1975 (8-3 under Don Nehlen).

In 2015, Bowling Green scared Tennessee for a while, crushed Maryland, beat four bowl teams (Akron, Ohio, WMU, NIU) by an average of 30 points, and came up just nine points short of 600 for the season. The Falcons won the MAC for the second time in three years. They lost only to teams with at least nine wins. This was an outstanding season for the brown and orange.

And now the man responsible for these heights, head coach Dino Babers, is wearing a different shade of orange polo at Syracuse.

Every coaching change is a roll of the dice; with BGSU having won at least eight games in four straight years, is Mike Jinks the man to continue a rare run of stability?

He's a creative choice, at the very least. Jinks is a longtime Texas high school coach -- he was an offensive coordinator from 1999-2004, then led programs at San Antonio Burbank high school and Cibolo Steele high school for eight years. After going 43-4 at Steele from 2010-12, he got stolen away by Kliff Kingsbury and put on a different career track.

Jinx served three years as Texas Tech's running backs coach and in 2015 added the role of associate head coach. He served under one of the spread's steadiest hands (while defense has held Kingsbury's Tech program back, offense has in no way been a problem) and helped to develop maybe the country's most underrated running back -- DeAndre Washington, who rushed for 2,495 yards over the last two seasons.

Now, barely three years after leading Steele high school to a 14-1 record and a Texas 5A-2 state semifinal appearance, Jinks takes the reins at a conference champion in Ohio. It's a new area of the country for the Angelo State graduate, but for a school that loves itself some spread/air raid offense, his own strain of it could be pleasing to the eye.

One thing's certain: He's probably either going to win or lose big. Or, going by BGSU's history, both. One thing is certain: The turnover for BGSU in 2016 doesn't stop with just the coaching staff. The Falcons will be replacing a nearly 5,000-yard passer, a nearly 1,300 yards rusher, three wideouts who combined for more than 3,200 receiving yards, and an all-conference offensive lineman. The identity might not change too much in switching from Babers to Jinks, but the names sure will.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 10-4 | Adj. Record: 10-4 | Final F/+ Rk: 25 | Final S&P+ Rk: 19
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
5-Sep	vs. Tennessee	18	30-59	L	20%	1%	-13.8	-7.5
12-Sep	at Maryland	76	48-27	W	71%	93%	+30.7	+28.5
19-Sep	Memphis	41	41-44	L	67%	67%	+2.6	0.0
26-Sep	at Purdue	93	35-28	W	48%	64%	+6.8	+5.0
3-Oct	at Buffalo	98	28-22	W	72%	88%	-5.5	-2.5
10-Oct	Massachusetts	100	62-38	W	85%	99%	+20.0	+10.5
17-Oct	Akron	84	59-10	W	97%	100%	+40.9	+37.0
24-Oct	at Kent State	109	48-0	W	97%	100%	+38.0	+33.5
4-Nov	Ohio	69	62-24	W	95%	100%	+23.8	+17.5
11-Nov	at Western Michigan	51	41-27	W	79%	89%	+9.8	+11.5
17-Nov	Toledo	20	28-44	L	43%	15%	-21.9	-24.0
24-Nov	at Ball State	110	48-10	W	94%	100%	+17.0	+14.5
4-Dec	vs. Northern Illinois	66	34-14	W	97%	100%	+10.6	+8.0
23-Dec	vs. Georgia Southern	48	27-58	L	29%	4%	-40.8	-38.5

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	41.0	11	26.8	55
Points Per Game	42.2	6	28.9	84

2. Liftoff

Sometimes the defense just couldn't make plays. Bowling Green's defense was destined to allow plenty of points and yards simply because it was complementing an offense that couldn't stop scoring quickly. When you face more plays and drives, you're simply going to give up more from a raw numbers standpoint.

For much of the season, though, BGSU was actually able to make a few stops. In 10 wins, the Falcons allowed just 5 yards per play and 20 points per game. The offense, meanwhile, averaged 6.9 and 46.5, respectively.

In four losses, however, the defense had no hope. The Falcons allowed 6.4 yards per play and 51.3 points per game in those contests. The season began with a 59-point outing by Tennessee and ended with 58 by Georgia Southern. This was more or less a bend-don't-break defense, and it occasionally broke terribly.

For a while in October and early November, however, everything fell into alignment.

• Average Percentile Performance (first 4 games): 52% (~top 60)
• Average Percentile Performance (next 5 games): 89% (~top 15)
• Average Percentile Performance (next 4 games): 78% (~top 30)

BGSU just didn't have the defense to stop good offenses, and it was costly. Despite a lofty S&P+ rating that suggested the Falcons probably would have done quite well over a 30- or 82-game season, they finished 2015 with an 0-4 record against top-50 teams and a 10-0 record against everybody else. All four top-50 teams had strong offenses, and it would have been interesting to see what BGSU might have done against a team more reliant on defense (Florida? Utah? Wisconsin? Georgia?). But when the Falcons hit a rhythm early in MAC play, it was a beautiful sight.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.29	50	IsoPPP+	126.6	8
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	49.5%	7	Succ. Rt. +	122.7	8
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	29.9	67	Def. FP+	27.9	33
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	5.3	4	Redzone S&P+	122.5	8
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	22.0		ACTUAL	15	-7.0

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	4	7	8	8
RUSHING	52	3	3	8
PASSING	5	20	17	23
Standard Downs		20	12	28
Passing Downs		2	8	1

Q1 Rk	10	1st Down Rk	13
Q2 Rk	6	2nd Down Rk	38
Q3 Rk	19	3rd Down Rk	11
Q4 Rk	33

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Matt Johnson					383	569	4946	46	8	67.3%	36	6.0%	7.8
James Knapke	6'2, 237	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8157	14	20	173	1	0	70.0%	0	0.0%	8.7
James Morgan	6'4, 218	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8741
Elijah Cunningham	6'3, 190	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8166

3. Johnson had the touch

You don't score nearly 600 points without being good at quite a few different things, and in all circumstances Bowling Green had a strong offense. The Falcons averaged 6.5 yards per play away from home, 6.3 in losses, 6.6 against ranked teams, 6.3 against power five teams, etc. They could run when they needed to, and they could pass when they needed to.

But where BGSU stood out the most was on passing downs. A No. 20 ranking in Standard Downs S&P+ ranking is quite obviously strong, but a No. 2 ranking in Passing Downs S&P+ is even stronger. No one was more capable of unleashing a big play in obvious pass situations. That tends to fall quite a bit on the quarterback.

Matt Johnson had a deep, exciting receiving corps at his disposal, but it still takes poise to produce the way he did. His passer rating on first down was a perfectly strong 159.2, but it rose to 178.3 on third-and-4 or more. That's absurd. He was 59-for-94 for 979 yards, eight touchdowns, and no interceptions on such downs. He took a few hits along the way (BGSU was 72nd in passing downs sack rate), but on what I call play-maker downs, there was no play-maker better than Matt Johnson.

Inheriting Johnson would have almost assured first-year success for Jinx, but Johnson graduated, leaving behind a senior backup (James Knapke) and a big-armed, well-touted redshirt freshman (James Morgan) to battle for the starting job. Knapke held onto it in spring ball and has to be considered the presumptive starter at this point.

Knapke saw extensive action in 2014 when Johnson got hurt, but he was burdened with ups and downs. BGSU won the MAC East with him in charge, but that was due as much to a poor division as anything else. He was not nearly as productive in 2014 as Johnson was in 2013 or 2015, and he bears the burden of proof.

He also bears the weight of a relatively new receiving corps.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Travis Greene	RB					223	1299	15	5.8	5.3	43.0%	1	0
Fred Coppet	RB	5'9, 205	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8465	145	825	5	5.7	5.3	42.1%	1	1
Matt Johnson	QB					77	380	4	4.9	3.2	45.5%	6	4
Donovan Wilson	RB	6'0, 229	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8382	36	78	7	2.2	1.3	13.9%	1	0
Ronnie Moore	WR	5'9, 170	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7819	9	55	1	6.1	8.1	44.4%	0	0
Matt Domer	RB	5'11, 197	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8478	8	117	1	14.6	30.3	37.5%	0	0
Charles Lamar	RB	6'0, 204	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7826
Leonard Skattebo	FB	6'1, 245	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7444
Terence Stephens	RB	6'1, 190	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7782

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Gehrig Dieter	WR					141	94	1033	66.7%	24.5%	7.3	76.6%	56.7%	1.19
Roger Lewis	WR					130	85	1544	65.4%	22.6%	11.9	65.4%	52.3%	2.18
Ronnie Moore	WR	5'9, 170	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7819	96	72	954	75.0%	16.7%	9.9	59.4%	59.4%	1.51
Ryan Burbrink	WR					79	56	627	70.9%	13.7%	7.9	67.1%	53.2%	1.49
Travis Greene	RB					33	28	264	84.8%	5.7%	8.0	36.4%	45.5%	1.59
Teo Redding	WR	6'1, 167	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8378	24	13	222	54.2%	4.2%	9.3	45.8%	45.8%	2.03
Derek Lee	TE					22	18	108	81.8%	3.8%	4.9	68.2%	50.0%	1.02
Robbie Rhodes	WR	6'0, 190	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9860	12	4	194	33.3%	2.1%	16.2	75.0%	33.3%	4.66
Fred Coppet	RB	5'9, 205	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8465	11	9	75	81.8%	1.9%	6.8	63.6%	45.5%	1.07
Scott Miller	WR	5'10, 162	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7956	11	7	29	63.6%	1.9%	2.6	90.9%	36.4%	0.55
Chris Gallon	WR					8	7	89	87.5%	1.4%	11.1	75.0%	75.0%	1.15
Herve Coby	WR					3	3	58	100.0%	0.5%	19.3	33.3%	100.0%	1.90
Hunter Folkertsma	TE	6'5, 244	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	2	2	14	100.0%	0.3%	7.0	50.0%	100.0%	0.88
Tim Tupa	WR	6'1, 190	So.	NR	NR
Deric Phouthavong	WR	6'3, 202	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7756
Janarvis Pough	WR	6'1, 177	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7780
Darrion Landry	WR	6'2, 200	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8439
Rashaun O'Neal	WR	5'11, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7882

4. A lot gone, a lot back

First things first: The cupboard isn't empty. Senior receiver Ronnie Moore had the highest success rate on the team last year (among those with at least 10 targets, anyway) and combined a tight end's catch rate (75 percent) with a relative big-play receiver's averages (13.3 yards per catch). His big moments were huge -- he had five catches for 95 yards against Tennessee and 11 for 234 combined against Kent State and Ohio -- and he'll be one of the MAC's most proven receivers in 2016, even though he was the No. 3 guy for BGSU last year.

Beyond Ronnie Moore, BGSU returns Teo Redding (17.1 yards per catch), former Baylor blue-chipper Robbie Rhodes (four catches, 194 yards), and senior running back Fred Coppet, who served as Travis Greene's backup last year but matched Greene in terms of per-touch productivity. [Update: Rhodes was dismissed from the program in June.]

You can craft a strong offense around those four players, and that's before we get into the younger guys who might be ready to play a sustained role: running back Matt Domer, receiver Scott Miller, incoming signees, etc.

Still, it's hard to imagine BGSU can avoid regression considering the loss of not only Johnson, but Johnson's favorite weapons. Gehrig Dieter (transferred to Alabama) and Roger Lewis (declared for the NFL Draft) averaged 19.4 targets, 12.8 catches, and 184.1 yards per game. Between carries and targets, Greene averaged 18.3 intended touches per game. Hell, No. 4 receiver Ryan Burbrink caught 56 passes; he's gone, too. This is just so much to replace, especially for an offense that tends to require depth. The starters on this offense should be solid and experienced, but it's all green after that.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	123.9	3.29	3.9	41.0%	66.2%	16.0%	99.1	4.6%	7.5%
Rank	4	15	9	36	62	15	64	59	72

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Alex Huettel	RG					14	55	2015 2nd All-MAC
Jacob Bennett	LT	6'5, 319	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7693	14	42	2015 2nd All-MAC
Logan Dietz	RT	6'6, 298	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8232	12	40
Tim McAuliffe	C	6'0, 272	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7776	13	27
Ben Steward	LG	6'6, 304	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7824	1	15
Ryan Hunter	LG	6'4, 308	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7633	14	14
Austin Labus	RT	6'6, 292	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7611	2	2
Spencer Cairo	C					0	0
J.J. Beggan	RG	6'3, 298	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7851	0	0
De'Angelo Ware	RT	6'5, 331	So.	2 stars (5.3)	NR	0	0
Jack Kramer	OL	6'3, 307	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7948
JC Bartok	OL	6'5, 294	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7867
Caleb Bright	OL	6'4, 290	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8122

5. Babers' parting gift

At least the line should be fine. There will be new guys running, throwing, and catching, but BGSU returns most of one of the best mid-major lines in the country.

All-conference guard Alex Huettel is gone, but the other four 2015 starters are back, including all-conference left tackle Jacob Bennett. Including 2014 starter Ben Steward and key backup Austin Labus, six returnees have combined for 140 career starts, giving BGSU one of the most experienced lines in FBS.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.21	39	IsoPPP+	102.7	56
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	42.2%	73	Succ. Rt. +	95.2	86
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	28.9	93	Off. FP+	30.2	59
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.4	59	Redzone S&P+	102.8	59
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	18.2		ACTUAL	27.0	+8.8

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	86	66	86	56
RUSHING	79	67	88	58
PASSING	79	62	83	60
Standard Downs		36	53	27
Passing Downs		111	121	102

Q1 Rk	73	1st Down Rk	71
Q2 Rk	48	2nd Down Rk	34
Q3 Rk	64	3rd Down Rk	78
Q4 Rk	101

6. A Perry Eliano defense

If you didn't have anything in particular to offer offensively, BGSU could stop you. The Falcons were able to utilize a bend-don't-break routine to eventually force mistakes against bad offenses, but they had little to offer against teams that didn't make many mistakes.

In the MAC, that's fine; they were able to survive a little bit in shootouts because their own offense was so devastating (and because there aren't many impressive MAC defenses). But with the offense likely regressing a bit in 2016, the defense will have to pick up the slack if the Falcons are to win another East title.

Enter Perry Eliano. A safeties coach for UTSA's 4-2-5 defense for the last five years, Eliano will attempt to speed up the BGSU D a little bit.

Eliano is quite familiar with spread-'em-out offenses. He was a receivers coach at Central Arkansas, then changed sides of the ball and took a defensive backs position at Sam Houston State.

Obviously we don't know for sure what Eliano will try to do until he does it, but should he attempt more aggressiveness and efficiency, it bears mentioning that a high percentage of BGSU's most aggressive defensive players are back: sacks leader Terrance Bush, 2014 breakout end Gus Schwieterman, linebackers Austin Valdez, James Sanford, and Nilijah Ballew (combined: 21 tackles for loss, 5 sacks, 18 passes defensed), corners Clint Stephens and Alfonso Mack. There are concerns along the backbone of the defense (tackle, safety), but there appears to be useful speed here.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	96.3	2.81	3.95	38.9%	68.4%	20.2%	101.2	5.7%	4.1%
Rank	80	53	125	74	83	60	61	42	117

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Terrance Bush	DE	6'2, 252	Sr.	NR	NR	14	50.5	5.9%	8.0	6.0	0	0	0	0
Taylor Royster	DE					14	46.0	5.3%	11.0	6.0	0	0	1	0
Gus Schwieterman (2014)	DE	6'2, 270	So.	NR	NR	14	37.0	4.1%	7.5	2.5	0	1	1	0
Zach Colvin	DT					12	23.5	2.7%	9.5	4.0	0	1	0	0
Shannon Smith	DT	6'0, 281	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8600	13	19.0	2.2%	6.0	3.0	0	0	0	0
Izaah Lunsford	NT	6'3, 294	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7000	14	17.0	2.0%	3.5	2.5	0	1	0	0
Mike Minns	NT	5'10, 327	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8289	13	13.0	1.5%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Bryan Baird	DE					10	8.0	0.9%	1.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
Malik Brown	DE	6'4, 266	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8387	9	7.5	0.9%	2.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
David Konowalski	DE	6'3, 219	So.	NR	NR	6	5.0	0.6%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Brian Sanders	DE	6'3, 255	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7619	7	3.5	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Nico Lautanen	DT	6'3, 271	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7874
Kyle Junior	DL	6'3, 267	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7700

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Austin Valdez	MLB	6'0, 225	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7963	14	101.0	11.7%	11.0	1.0	2	5	0	0
Trenton Greene	OLB					14	96.0	11.1%	7.5	1.0	0	2	0	0
James Sanford	OLB	6'1, 196	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8417	13	70.5	8.2%	5.5	3.0	1	8	2	0
Nilijah Ballew	OLB	6'0, 210	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8649	14	29.0	3.4%	4.5	1.0	0	2	0	0
Nate Locke	MLB	6'0, 226	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7383	13	24.5	2.8%	3.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Brandon Harris	OLB	6'3, 204	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8055	10	16.0	1.9%	2.0	0.0	1	0	1	0
Zac Bartman	LB	5'11, 214	Sr.	NR	NR	12	6.5	0.8%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Aaron Banks	LB	6'2, 239	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7893
Matthew Finkler	LB	6'2, 232	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7793
Harrison Roberts	LB	6'1, 216	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7764
Dorian Hendrix	LB	6'0, 232	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8515

7. Letting your opponent off the mat

I guess calling BGSU's defense "bend-don't-break" isn't quite right. That might call to mind a defense that is a bit of a sieve on standard downs but pounces on psasing downs. The Falcons were the opposite. They were perfectly solid on standard downs but couldn't close a drive to save their collective life. They did the hard part but ended up too passive on passing downs. That meant that every BGSU game was likely to feature two offenses that were good at bailing themselves out.

The return of Schwieterman from 2015 injury can't hurt. He and Bush give the Falcons a decent presence on the edge. Last year, the pass rush didn't exist on passing downs, and while BGSU's corners were relatively active, they weren't quite solid enough to make up the difference.

The pass rush could improve, but the biggest question this year will come in the middle. Tackle Zach Colvin is gone, and nose Mike Minns is suspended indefinitely (and not listed on the roster) while he continues to deal with the repercussions of a December arrest. That leaves two 2015 contributors (Shannon Smith, Izaah Lunsford) and no proven pieces after that.

As with the skill positions, depth could be an issue here. If the injury bug is kind, all could be well. But one or two injuries could make BGSU very light and very young on the interior.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Eilar Hardy	SS					14	65.5	7.6%	2	0	2	2	0	0
Dernard Turner	FS					14	56.0	6.5%	5.5	0	4	4	0	0
Clint Stephens	CB	5'10, 182	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8132	14	53.0	6.2%	0.5	0	2	7	1	0
Alfonso Mack	CB	5'11, 178	Sr.	NR	NR	14	49.0	5.7%	3.5	0	6	3	0	0
Ben Hale	SS	6'2, 197	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7533	12	22.0	2.6%	1.5	0	0	0	0	0
Will Watson (2014)	CB	5'11, 179	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8100	12	16.5	1.8%	1	0	0	1	0	0
Jamari Bozeman	FS	6'2, 192	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7859	11	16.0	1.9%	1	0	1	1	0	0
Darrell Hunter II	CB					3	10.5	1.2%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Isaiah Gourdine	CB	6'2, 196	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8282	10	6.5	0.8%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Robert Jackson Jr.	CB	5'11, 168	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7826	11	4.5	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jack Walz III	DB	5'10, 190	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7956	10	3.5	0.4%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Matt Robinson	DB	5'8, 179	Jr.	NR	NR	11	3.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Marcus Milton	DB	6'0, 189	So.	NR	0.7000
Antonyo Sotolongo	DB	6'0, 197	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8181
Bobo Jones	DB	6'1, 181	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8013
Armani Posey	S	6'1, 200	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8462
Ty Redding	CB	6'2, 155	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8116
Jerry McBride III	DB	6'2, 200	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7824

8. All the experience you could want at corner

Alfonso Mack and Clint Stephens combined for four tackles for loss and 18 passes defensed last season, a solid total. Senior Will Watson missed 2015 with injury but was a decent role player in 2014. Senior Isaiah Gourdine and sophomore Robert Jackson Jr. were role players last season.

Even if a younger player like Antonyo Sotolongo or Bobo Jones isn't immediately ready, it appears BGSU will have solid experience and decent returning production at cornerback. But it's hard to say the same about the safety position. Juinor Ben Hale and sophomore Jamari Bozeman did combine for 38.0 tackles last year, but the loss of both starters, Eliar Hardy and Dernard Turner, hurts. If Eliano wants to create more havoc and disruption, it's nice to know you've got some solid safety valves in the back. BGSU might or might not.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Joseph Davidson	6'7, 222	Jr.	54	46.0	4	9	14	42.6%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Tyler Tate			91	61.9	44	4	48.4%
Nick Fields	5'11, 215	Jr.	13	44.8	0	0	0.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Tyler Tate			75-81	7-10	70.0%	1-5	20.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Scott Miller	KR	5'10, 162	So.	24	19.0	0
Robbie Rhodes	KR	6'0, 190	Jr.	7	16.1	0
Ryan Burbrink	PR			11	4.6	0
Ronnie Moore	PR	5'9, 170	Sr.	2	9.0	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	128
Field Goal Efficiency	123
Punt Return Success Rate	122
Kick Return Success Rate	109
Punt Success Rate	122
Kickoff Success Rate	74

9. Winning despite special teams

Hooray for regression to the mean! Bowling Green can expect its special teams unit to get better this year, if only because it probably can't get worse. In terms of play-for-play efficiency, the Falcons may have had the worst special teams in the country last year -- returns were neither consistent nor explosive, coverage units were atrocious (127th in punt return average, 62nd in kick return average), and Tyler Tate either missed or had six PATs and three shorter field goals blocked.

Punter Joseph Davidson, who has a booming leg that frequently outkicked its coverage last year, is back, as are the primary return men. But a little bit of new blood might not be the worst idea in the world.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
3-Sep	at Ohio State	14	-16.5	17%
10-Sep	North Dakota	NR	26.5	94%
17-Sep	Middle Tennessee	90	11.1	74%
24-Sep	at Memphis	77	-0.2	50%
1-Oct	Eastern Michigan	121	21.5	89%
8-Oct	at Ohio	95	5.0	61%
15-Oct	at Toledo	58	-3.8	41%
22-Oct	Miami (Ohio)	107	17.7	85%
1-Nov	at Northern Illinois	79	0.1	50%
9-Nov	at Akron	97	6.3	64%
15-Jan	Kent State	104	15.4	81%
25-Nov	Buffalo	109	18.1	85%
Projected wins: 7.9

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-0.4% (59)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	103 / 97
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	12 / -3.7
2015 TO Luck/Game	+5.6
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	46% (29%, 62%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	10.2 (-0.2)

10. A great/terrible schedule

Good news: The 2016 schedule features only four teams projected better than 90th in S&P+. That's a reminder of the general weakness of the MAC East and how far BGSU might have to fall for someone else to win the division.

Bad news: All four play host to the Falcons. That means two projected losses (Ohio State, Toledo) and two projected tossups (Memphis, NIU). Plus, BGSU must travel to Ohio and Akron, maybe No. 2 and No. 3 contenders in the East.

This is the hardest easy schedule imaginable.

Still, BGSU was so far ahead of the field last year. I can talk up Ohio's consistency and Akron's upside, and I can point out how good Kent State's defense is, but Bowling Green was leaps and bounds ahead of the East, and while regression is almost guaranteed, it would take at least a couple of road losses to make the Falcons anything but the clear favorite.

The Jinks hire is an interesting one, rather outside the box. Jinks brings head coaching experience (at the high school level) and air raid tendencies to a school that has grown accustomed to points and yards. But he's not from the region, he's never been a college head coach or coordinator, and since he's only been a college coach, PERIOD, for three years, we don't know much about his long-term recruiting and/or talent identification skills.

The hire certainly wasn't boring, though, and that's good. BGSU doesn't do boring.