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At the end of each conference run-through (previously: Conference USA, Mountain West, Sun Belt), I take a look at how I perceive the conference's balance of power heading into the season. This is in no way based on schedules, so they are not predictions. This is just how I would rank the teams after writing thousands of words about each of them.
With similar budgets and a homogenous recruiting base, the MAC is supposed to be a bastion of parity. But we've gotten three straight Bowling Green-Northern Illinois conference title games, and the odds are decent that we'll get a fourth.
The numbers like two other MAC West teams more than NIU, however, and a tricky road slate could get BGSU into trouble. This should be an interesting race.
And by the way, Week 5 in the MAC will be loaded with telling contests: WMU at CMU could be a West elimination game of sorts; Akron-Kent State, Ohio-Miami, and NIU-Ball State will be huge for bowl possibilities; and Buffalo-BC and Toledo-BYU will be potential résumé builders for the conference as a whole.
Tier 1
I understand the mistake I'm making. On paper, WMU and Toledo were better than NIU last year, too, and the Huskies still figured out a way to win the West (with help from WMU knocking off Toledo on the road). But it's been a couple of years since NIU was truly strong. Consider this a challenge.
Toledo was really good last year but loses just enough on both sides of the ball to spook me into picking WMU as the best team here.
Tier 2
3. NIU
4. Bowling Green
5. CMU
6. Ohio
This is really more of a "Tier 1 and 1a" situation. It would not be a shock for any of these four teams to win the MAC.
I'm dinging BGSU for losing quite a bit on offense, but the Falcons should still be the strongest team in the East. Ohio could have something to say about that.
And if you're looking for a MAC sleeper, don't ignore how good CMU was for most of conference play last year.
Tier 3
7. Akron
8. Kent State
9. Buffalo
10. Ball State
11. Miami (Ohio)
All five are fighting for bowl bids but are probably too flawed for a run at a division title.
Akron has to replace quite a few key defensive pieces, and while Kent State's defense should be great again, the offense could be just as bad as it was last year. And I really wanted to predict a breakthrough for Lance Leipold and Buffalo, but with so much to replace on offense, the Bulls might still be a year away.
Tier 4
Prove me wrong, Eagles.
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
MAC West
| Team | 2015 Record (Conf.) | 2015 S&P+ Rk | Proj. 2016 S&P+ Rk | Proj. 2016 Wins (Conf.) | 5-Yr Rec. Rk | Ret. Experience (Off. / Def.) |
| WMU | 8-5 (6-2) | 53 | 65 | 7.6 (5.3) | 83 | 70% (79% / 62%) |
| Toledo | 10-2 (6-2) | 21 | 58 | 7.9 (5.3) | 84 | 43% (44% / 43%) |
| NIU | 8-6 (6-2) | 69 | 79 | 6.9 (4.6) | 122 | 74% (85% / 63%) |
| CMU | 7-6 (6-2) | 78 | 85 | 6.5 (4.3) | 101 | 73 % (80% / 67%) |
| Ball State | 3-9 (2-6) | 111 | 101 | 5.2 (3.3) | 108 | 82% (78% / 87%) |
| EMU | 1-11 (0-8) | 121 | 121 | 4.0 (2.0) | 119 | 77% (78% / 75%) |
MAC East
| Team | 2015 Record (Conf.) | 2015 S&P+ Rk | Proj. 2016 S&P+ Rk | Proj. 2016 Wins (Conf.) | 5-Yr Rec. Rk | Ret. Experience (Off. / Def.) |
| BGSU | 10-4 (7-1) | 19 | 60 | 7.9 (5.6) | 97 | 46% (29% / 62%) |
| Ohio | 8-5 (5-3) | 66 | 95 | 6.5 (4.1) | 111 | 52% (64% / 40%) |
| Akron | 8-5 (5-3) | 80 | 97 | 5.3 (3.6) | 115 | 63% (72% / 53%) |
| Kent St. | 3-9 (2-6) | 115 | 104 | 5.0 (3.2) | 124 | 89% (94% / 83%) |
| Buffalo | 5-7 (3-5) | 96 | 109 | 4.8 (2.9) | 114 | 46% (18% / 73%) |
| Miami | 3-9 (2-6) | 117 | 107 | 4.6 (3.3) | 105 | 79% (84% / 74%) |