Expect UCF's terrible 2015 to become a distant memory under Scott Frost. Eventually.

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year's team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year's roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

1. Things fall apart

One day, you're winning the Fiesta Bowl. Barely 18 months later, you're careening off of the proverbial cliff.

George O'Leary's successful run at UCF was nothing if not symmetrical. He began 0-11, he finished 0-12 (well, 0-8 before an interim took over), and in the 10 years in between, he went 81-49. He took the still-young program to seven bowls, won three, advanced the Knights from Conference USA to the Big East/AAC, and engineered a top-10 finish in 2013.

O'Leary proved the potential a large school in Orlando can have if it gets its act together. His work made the 44,000-seat Bright House Networks Stadium seem realistic and necessary. He gave us Kevin Smith, Blake Bortles, and Brandon Marshall.

He wasn't particularly likable, but he proved that you don't really need to be to succeed. His success at an upstart gave him a legacy that didn't involve fudging his résumé.

The end came the way it does for a lot of aging coaches. It's hard to maintain the intensity required for a head coaching job, and eventually your attention wanes. For O'Leary, not only did he turn 69 right before the 2015 season began, he was also attempting to take on the role of interim athletic director. He had visions of stepping into the A.D. role full-time.

But while coaches used to wear coach and A.D. hats at the same time, it's a lot harder in the 2010s. Too much is required of coaches (who get paid handsomely for taking on too much). Age and the athletic director position distracted O'Leary, and by the time he stepped down as A.D. in October, it was too late. His team was ill-prepared and overwhelmed.

O'Leary recruited as well as anyone in the AAC, but you couldn't tell it. The Knights' collapse was comprehensive. They were good in special teams, they prevented sacks relatively well, they made some run stops in the backfield, and in basically every single other category among the tens of stats below, they ranked well into the triple digits.

From 23rd in Off. S&P+ in 2013, they fell to 126th in 2015. From 34th in Def. S&P+ in 2014, they fell to 112th. And from 12-1 in 2013, they fell to 0-12.

The good news: If energy and focus were problems, they won't be for his replacement. Scott Frost is an intense individual who won a share of a national title at Nebraska, bounced around the pros for six years, served as defensive coordinator at Northern Iowa in 2008, then, as would be customary for a quarterback who played safety in the pros, served as offensive coordinator for Oregon from 2013-15.

Frost was inundated into the Oregon way for the last seven seasons, and in terms of raw potential, he walks into a gold mine. There wasn't a mass exodus of talent, and UCF returns three-star talent at every position. If Frost's message of urgency clicks, he could find the depth of athleticism caters to what he wants.

Still, last year was a demoralizing experience. Frost might inherit a lot of impressive raw materials, but how long will it take to wash all of the dirt off?

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 0-12 | Adj. Record: 0-12 | Final F/+ Rk: 128 | Final S&P+ Rk: 125
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
3-Sep	Florida International	112	14-15	L	50%	60%	-12.0	-14.0
12-Sep	at Stanford	6	7-31	L	8%	0%	-6.0	-5.0
19-Sep	Furman	N/A	15-16	L	22%	27%	-24.0
26-Sep	at South Carolina	88	14-31	L	19%	7%	+1.7	-2.0
3-Oct	at Tulane	119	31-45	L	6%	1%	-12.4	-14.0
10-Oct	Connecticut	80	13-40	L	9%	1%	-19.0	-30.0
17-Oct	at Temple	45	16-30	L	11%	0%	+20.0	+8.0
24-Oct	Houston	26	10-59	L	8%	0%	-24.5	-27.5
31-Oct	at Cincinnati	72	7-52	L	2%	0%	-23.2	-17.5
7-Nov	at Tulsa	95	30-45	L	22%	11%	+7.8	+1.5
19-Nov	East Carolina	73	7-44	L	7%	0%	-20.6	-22.5
26-Nov	South Florida	44	3-44	L	7%	0%	-14.9	-41.0

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	14.0	126	36.4	112
Points Per Game	13.9	126	37.7	118

2. Never even a sliver of hope

Things look different in the present and past tenses. When UCF opened the season with a Thursday night 15-14 loss to FIU, it felt like an upset, like a statement win for Golden Panthers more than a telltale loss for the Knights.

Turns out, it was UCF's best performance of the season. The Knights were only outgained by six yards, and with fumbles luck (they recovered all four of the game's fumbles), they probably should have won. You really couldn't say that about any other game on the docket, including the 16-15 loss to Furman.

UCF was bad early and worse late, showing a pulse only a few times -- the Knights were up 14-8 on South Carolina at halftime, they were up 16-14 on Temple heading into the fourth quarter, and they were down 24-20 at Tulsa heading into the fourth quarter. In each instance, they faded. But at least they did so while flashing some potential.

This was a truly dreadful season. O'Leary had no gas left in the tank, and it rubbed off on his team.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.01	127	IsoPPP+	65.7	127
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	34.2%	122	Succ. Rt. +	77.7	123
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	31.8	108	Def. FP+	31.3	98
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	3.4	122	Redzone S&P+	83.7	119
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	26.4		ACTUAL	33	+6.6

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	128	127	123	127
RUSHING	127	128	125	128
PASSING	102	122	117	123
Standard Downs		127	124	128
Passing Downs		121	116	123

Q1 Rk	118	1st Down Rk	128
Q2 Rk	128	2nd Down Rk	127
Q3 Rk	125	3rd Down Rk	126
Q4 Rk	118

3. Identity won't be an issue

Frost's tenure has started as well as possible considering he hasn't actually coached a game yet. Per the 247Sports Composite, he signed the No. 3 class in the conference -- a neat trick considering the 0-12 record; then his Knights drew a team-record 23,147 fans for the spring game. And for good measure, his offense looked pretty good, albeit against his defense.

Frost will face plenty of challenges this fall, but identity won't be one of them. He wants his team to be very, very fast. Oregon: Disney edition.

Speed and tempo have been the defining characteristics of Oregon football since Chip Kelly showed up as offensive coordinator in 2007. The Ducks built their entire program around the premise of tempo and urgency: Hit the defense with a solid gain, then rush to the line to do it again.

The run-pass rates shifted through the years depending on the quarterback, but speed defined their rise into elite status, and he should find quite a bit of it at UCF. The question, of course, is how much workable talent there is to go with the athleticism.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Justin Holman	6'4, 213	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7969	127	250	1379	7	14	50.8%	10	3.8%	5.1
Bo Schneider					54	105	534	2	7	51.4%	10	8.7%	4.0
Tyler Harris	6'4, 228	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8711	26	61	308	4	2	42.6%	3	4.7%	4.1
Nick Patti	5'11, 206	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8397	4	8	25	0	0	50.0%	0	0.0%	3.1
Pete DiNovo	6'2, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8209
Garrett Kruczek	6'2, 185	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8115
McKenzie Milton	5'11, 175	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8362

4. First impressions lie

Justin Holman threw a few passes here and there during UCF's Fiesta Bowl run in 2013, but his first significant action came in 2014, when he completed nine of 14 passes for 204 yards against Penn State, then completed 22 of 36 against Missouri. I was at the Missouri-UCF game, and while he threw two picks and was hurt by some drops, one thing was undeniable: His arm is gorgeous. His delivery is pretty smooth, and combined with solid athleticism (he's not a home run threat with his legs, but he can steal five or six yards from a distracted defense), it seemed his potential was off the charts.

The week after Missouri, Holman completed six of 11 passes for 145 yards and two scores. His career passer rating at that point was 146.2. Since then, it's 114.2. He's now thrown 29 interceptions in his career, and after completing 23 of 34 passes against FIU to start 2015, he completed just 48 percent thereafter. Granted, having a receiving corps full of freshmen didn't help.

First impressions only matter until the second one. Holman clearly still has potential, but he's got only one more year of eligibility to figure things out. An efficient Holman could have the athleticism to do what Frost and new offensive coordinator Troy Walters (who was most recently Colorado's receivers coach and recruiting coordinator) want him to. Plus, his skill position cast will be composed of mostly sophomores instead of freshmen.

If Holman's error-prone ways cannot be remedied, however, he will likely end his career as a backup. UCF also has QB-turned-WR-turned-QB Nick Patti and a host of former three-star recruits -- sophomores Tyler Harris and Garrett Kruczek, junior Pete DiNovo, freshman McKenzie Milton -- ready to take over if he struggles.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
C.J. Jones	RB	5'10, 216	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8328	93	339	1	3.6	5.1	24.7%	2	2
Taj McGowan	RB	6'1, 198	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8305	85	262	1	3.1	2.2	28.2%	0	0
Dontravious Wilson	RB	5'10, 217	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8201	44	147	0	3.3	3.4	27.3%	0	0
Justin Holman	QB	6'4, 213	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7969	36	185	0	5.1	2.0	58.3%	4	0
Nick Patti	QB/WR	5'11, 206	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8397	30	106	2	3.5	2.4	30.0%	0	0
Michael Willett	RB	5'9, 197	Jr.	NR	NR	15	53	0	3.5	1.4	46.7%	0	0
William Stanback	RB					12	11	0	0.9	2.7	8.3%	1	1
Bo Schneider	QB					6	13	0	2.2	0.9	33.3%	1	1
Tristan Payton	WR	6'0, 185	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9047	4	4	0	1.0	6.1	25.0%	1	1
Adrian Killins	RB	5'9, 185	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8431
Jawon Hamilton	RB	5'9, 193	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8120

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Tre'Quan Smith	WR	6'1, 201	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8179	95	52	724	54.7%	24.1%	7.6	45.3%	46.3%	1.45
Tristan Payton	WR	6'0, 185	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9047	41	21	264	51.2%	10.4%	6.4	58.5%	39.0%	1.52
Jordan Franks	TE	6'3, 225	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7752	32	20	246	62.5%	8.1%	7.7	53.1%	40.6%	1.77
Nick Patti	QB/WR	5'11, 206	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8397	27	13	104	48.1%	6.8%	3.9	55.6%	37.0%	0.96
D'erren Wilson	WR	6'3, 175	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7993	26	8	118	30.8%	6.6%	4.5	30.8%	26.9%	1.74
Cam Stewart	WR	6'3, 188	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8460	26	11	90	42.3%	6.6%	3.5	73.1%	30.8%	0.97
Chris Johnson	WR	5'10, 182	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	NR	24	14	187	58.3%	6.1%	7.8	54.2%	54.2%	0.84
Jordan Akins	WR	6'3, 237	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8505	24	14	152	58.3%	6.1%	6.3	50.0%	41.7%	1.42
C.J. Jones	RB	5'10, 216	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8328	20	11	65	55.0%	5.1%	3.3	55.0%	30.0%	0.96
Cedric Thompson	TE					14	7	31	50.0%	3.5%	2.2	50.0%	14.3%	1.21
Taylor Oldham	WR	6'2, 193	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7500	13	7	42	53.8%	3.3%	3.2	53.8%	30.8%	0.92
Blake Tiralosi	WR	5'11, 194	Sr.	NR	NR	11	8	45	72.7%	2.8%	4.1	36.4%	54.5%	0.69
Michael Willett	RB	5'9, 197	Jr.	NR	NR	10	7	89	70.0%	2.5%	8.9	70.0%	70.0%	1.12
Dontravious Wilson	RB	5'10, 217	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8201	9	6	33	66.7%	2.3%	3.7	77.8%	44.4%	0.75
Aaron Cochran	TE	6'2, 260	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8206	6	4	22	66.7%	1.5%	3.7	66.7%	50.0%	0.59
Dredrick Snelson	WR	6'0, 193	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8821
Dontay Mayfield	WR	6'1, 195	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8406
Jaquarius Bargnare	WR	5'8, 198	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8365

5. Freshmen become sophomores

UCF started 10 different offensive linemen in 2015, including three freshmen and three sophomores. The top two running backs and top four wideouts (not including Patti) were freshmen.

This offense had absolutely no chance. For all we know, Holman improved dramatically just to produce the poor numbers he produced.

Amid the guaranteed struggles of youth, however, were flashes of potential. Leading rusher C.J. Jones averaged a perfectly solid 5.1 highlight yards per opportunity (while creating very few opportunities). Leading receiver Tre'Quan Smith averaged nearly 14 yards per catch and caught over 50 balls as a freshman; D'erren Wilson averaged 14.8 yards per catch. Tight end Jordan Franks (a wise old sage of a sophomore last year) had a catch rate of 63 percent.

And while recruiting rankings expire, so to speak -- eventually, being graded a four-star recruit in high school doesn't mean much if you've clearly not shown four-star potential on the field -- UCF's ceiling is immense from a recruiting perspective. Jones, Taj McGowan, Dontravious Wilson, and freshmen Adrian Killins and Jawon Hamilton were all three-star recruits per 247. Receiver Tristan Payton (247 and Rivals) and freshman Dredrick Snelson (Rivals) were four-stars, and Smith, D'erren Wilson, Cam Stewart, Chris Johnson, Jordan Akins, Taylor Oldham, and freshmen Dontay Mayfield and Jaquarius Bargnare were three-stars. And for that matter, 11 of the 12 linemen listed below were three-stars.

This means nothing if potential doesn't turn into production, but it does give UCF what we'll call athletic margin for error. Odds are good that some high-class weapons will emerge. And yes, the odds were good last year, too, and it didn't really happen.

Just as the entire offense collapsed at once, you could potentially see the whole thing rebound as well. UCF has all the experience it lacked a year ago, and while the Knights will still be pretty young and error-prone -- you could see as few as one to two senior starters -- it wouldn't be surprising to see this unit rise pretty far beyond last year's ratings.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	78.5	2.37	2.3	30.9%	56.5%	23.7%	108.7	2.5%	7.6%
Rank	125	124	121	124	113	112	48	19	74

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Joey Grant	C					1	22
Tarik Cook	RG					10	21
Jason Rae	C	5'11, 292	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7594	10	17
Chavis Dickey	RT	6'4, 319	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8101	4	16
Aaron Evans	LT	6'5, 290	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7993	12	13
Tyler Hudanick	LG	6'5, 294	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8100	8	8
Wyatt Miller	RT	6'4, 293	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8343	7	7
Luke Palmer	LG	6'3, 302	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8035	5	5
Colby Watson	RG					1	4
Chester Brown	RG	6'5, 327	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8488	0	3
Tate Hernly	LT	6'3, 298	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8016	2	2
Christian Beard	OL	6'4, 285	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8115
Aaron Dowdell	OL	6'4, 318	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8753
Jordan Johnson	OL	6'3, 280	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8646
Boman Swanson	OL	6'4, 274	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8112

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.34	103	IsoPPP+	86.2	111
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	44.7%	98	Succ. Rt. +	90.8	101
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	29.4	80	Off. FP+	29.4	78
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	5.1	118	Redzone S&P+	84.2	122
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	15.4		ACTUAL	13.0	-2.4

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	114	108	101	111
RUSHING	100	105	101	112
PASSING	110	108	102	113
Standard Downs		108	100	108
Passing Downs		112	102	115

Q1 Rk	114	1st Down Rk	98
Q2 Rk	102	2nd Down Rk	97
Q3 Rk	120	3rd Down Rk	106
Q4 Rk	41

6. An Erik Chinander defense

O'Leary's calling card was defense. He was Don McPherson's defensive coordinator at Syracuse in the 1980s, and after spending time as Bobby Ross' defensive line coach, both at Georgia Tech and with the San Diego Chargers, he landed back in Atlanta, served as defensive coordinator for Bill Lewis for one year, then took the head coaching job.

At UCF, O'Leary's defenses were almost always fast and effective. Between 2008 and 2014, the Knights ranked between 31st and 48th in Def. S&P+ every single year. The tumble in 2015 was dramatic, but for the time being, we'll still look at it as the outlier, not the new normal.

Senior defensive backs Drico Johnson and Shaquill Griffin were reserves on UCF's 2013 and 2014 squads, and lineman Jamiyus Pittman and linebacker Chequan Burkett joined the rotation in 2014. But for the most part, new defensive coordinator Eric Chinander doesn't inherit many players who were part of a good O'Leary defense.

Chinander comes with Frost from Eugene, where he got quite the Oregon innoculation. He was an intern in 2010, a defensive grad assistant in 2011-12, and after a year with former Oregon head coach Chip Kelly in Philadelphia, he returned for two years as Oregon's OLBs coach.

At its best, Oregon's recent defenses have basically been rubber bands -- bending and bending on standard downs and hoping for an offensive mistake, then snapping ahead and attacking on passing downs. And the Ducks patented the 1-2 punch in recent years, scoring a touchdown, then immediately attacking and searching for a turnover.

We could see the same dynamic at UCF. UCF's secondary is experienced and has been at its best when attacking close to the line of scrimmage. If a rebuilt defensive line can hold up a bit against the run, the pass defense could swarm on third-and-long.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	88.3	2.79	3.76	37.2%	63.4%	22.1%	62.6	5.4%	2.2%
Rank	113	48	118	53	49	38	118	54	127

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jamiyus Pittman	DT	6'0, 300	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8575	12	32.0	4.7%	7.0	4.5	0	2	0	0
Thomas Niles	DE					12	28.0	4.1%	3.0	1.0	0	1	0	0
Lance McDowdell	DT					12	24.0	3.5%	4.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Luke Adams	DE					11	23.0	3.4%	2.5	1.0	0	1	0	0
Tony Guerad	DT	6'3, 290	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7954	7	20.5	3.0%	5.0	2.0	0	1	0	0
Monte Taylor	DT	6'3, 270	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8006	6	9.5	1.4%	3.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Seyvon Lowry	DE	6'3, 252	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8399	11	8.5	1.2%	0.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Joey Connors	DT	6'1, 283	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8220	8	7.5	1.1%	1.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Brendon Hayes	DE	6'3, 257	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8052
Josh Odigie	DE	6'4, 255	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8056
Joe Sanders	DE	6'4, 256	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7985
Chris Mulumba	DT	6'4, 270	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7667
D.J. Davidson	DT	6'5, 315	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8516
Dedrion Bacote	DE	6'3, 225	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8427

7. A total rebuild in the front

In Pittman, UCF does boast a decent, disruptive middle man. And in Tony Guerad, the Knights might have a second such player in the middle. Guerad had five tackles for loss in seven games but left the team in November; he stayed in school and ended up back on the roster this spring.

Add in senior Monte Taylor, who had 3.5 tackles for loss in half a season, and you've got potential strength at tackle. But the defensive end position, so long a strength of UCF defenses, is a smoking crater. Junior Seyvon Lowry is the only returning contributor, and he had all of 8.5 tackles last year. Frost signed three JUCO linemen, including two likely ends (Josh Odigie, Joe Sanders) and could get either redshirt freshman Brendon Hayes or true freshman Dedrion Bacote involved. But this unit is as unproven as it gets.

But on the bright side, the UCF pass rush was mostly awful last year anyway, so only so much regression is possible.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Domenic Spencer	MLB					12	76.5	11.2%	9.5	1.0	0	0	1	0
Chequan Burkett	OLB	6'2, 228	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8167	12	44.0	6.4%	6.5	3.0	1	4	2	0
Pat Jasinski	OLB	6'1, 209	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8116	12	30.0	4.4%	2.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Maurice Russell	OLB	5'11, 239	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8006	12	19.0	2.8%	1.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Demeitre Brim	OLB	6'3, 225	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8389	9	17.5	2.6%	2.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Mark Rucker	LB	5'9, 213	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	12	12.0	1.8%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Quintin Hampton	MLB					11	8.5	1.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Shaquem Griffin	LB	6'1, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7859	12	7.0	1.0%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Errol Clarke	OLB	6'3, 230	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8359	11	6.5	1.0%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Titus Davis	OLB	6'2, 230	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8479	7	3.5	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Justin McDonald	LB	6'2, 211	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8248	8	3.0	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Mario Mathis	LB	6'1, 243	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8469
Neal Nelson	LB	6'2, 227	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8331
Eric Mitchell	LB	6'1, 224	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8444
Nate Evans	LB	6'1, 240	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8132
Monterious Loggins	LB	6'0, 220	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8052

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Drico Johnson	FS	6'1, 207	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8453	12	51.5	7.5%	4	0	0	1	0	1
Shaquill Griffin	CB	6'1, 192	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8259	12	44.0	6.4%	0.5	0	2	13	0	0
Tre Neal	SS	6'1, 200	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8386	12	42.5	6.2%	0.5	0	0	3	0	0
Jerod Boykins	CB	6'3, 213	Sr.	NR	NR	11	33.0	4.8%	1	0	0	2	0	0
D.J. Killings	CB	6'0, 186	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8078	7	28.0	4.1%	4	0	0	1	1	0
T.J. Mutcherson	SS	5'11, 191	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7919	9	26.0	3.8%	4	1	0	2	1	0
Kyle Gibson	CB	5'11, 186	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8957	8	19.0	2.8%	2	0	0	1	0	0
Jeremy Boykins	SS	6'2, 194	Sr.	NR	NR	8	16.5	2.4%	1	1	0	1	0	0
Brendin Straubel	DB					12	13.5	2.0%	0	0	1	0	1	0
Rashard Causey	DB	6'0, 188	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8681	6	4.0	0.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Blake Tiralosi	DB	5'11, 194	Sr.	NR	NR
Brandon Scott	DB	6'0, 180	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8504
Bryon Brown	DB	6'1, 165	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8015
Brandon Moore	DB	6'1, 177	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8011

8. Experience in the back

The pass rush could obviously be a major issue, but with sturdy tackles and potentially solid linebacker play (Chequan Burkett is a solid blitzer, and yes, there are plenty of former star recruits here), it's conceivable that the run defense could hold up. And if UCF can force passing downs, the secondary could do pretty disruptive things even if the quarterback has time to pass.

Safeties Drico Johnson and T.J. Mutcherson and corner D.J. Killings all recorded four tackles for loss last year, and corner Shaquill Griffin defensed 15 passes. Five of the top six retunees are seniors, giving this unit all the experience that other units lack. Plus, there are high-upside youngsters in Tre Neal, Kyle Gibson, Rashard Causey, and Brandon Scott. Secondary is the least of UCF's concerns in 2016.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Caleb Houston	6'1, 210	Sr.	65	44.2	2	31	23	83.1%
Mac Loudermilk	6'1, 224	So.	9	50.4	1	2	1	33.3%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Donald Delahaye	5'9, 170	So.	33	61.6	11	2	33.3%
Matthew Wright	6'1, 179	So.	8	63.3	0	0	0.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Matthew Wright	6'1, 179	So.	17-17	8-10	80.0%	5-7	71.4%
Donald Delahaye	5'9, 170	So.	1-1	0-0	N/A	0-0	N/A

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Tristan Payton	KR	6'0, 185	So.	30	24.2	0
Hayden Jones	KR	5'10, 173	Sr.	12	18.5	0
Chris Johnson	PR	5'10, 182	Jr.	6	6.8	0
Blake Tiralosi	PR	5'11, 194	Sr.	3	4.3	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	8
Field Goal Efficiency	45
Punt Return Success Rate	12
Kick Return Success Rate	12
Punt Success Rate	6
Kickoff Success Rate	45

9. Just think of how bad it could have been with bad special teams

It's endlessly frustrating to waste a good special teams unit. UCF's return game was awesome and consistent, Caleb Houston's punts were long and high, and Matthew Wright was dynamite for a freshman kicker.

And UCF still went 0-12. Call this a reminder that special teams are only about 10-15 percent of a given game, I guess.

The good news, though, is that everybody's back. Special teams is a frustrating small-sample exercise, so you can't guarantee another top-10 finish here, but this unit should still be a strength.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
3-Sep	SC State	NR	18.2	85%
10-Sep	at Michigan	6	-29.8	4%
17-Sep	Maryland	62	-6.4	36%
24-Sep	at Florida International	113	2.1	55%
1-Oct	at East Carolina	78	-10.4	27%
7-Oct	Tulane	122	11.1	74%
15-Oct	Temple	61	-6.7	35%
22-Oct	at Connecticut	81	-8.4	31%
29-Oct	at Houston	53	-14.9	20%
12-Nov	Cincinnati	70	-4.9	39%
19-Nov	Tulsa	93	1.5	53%
26-Nov	at South Florida	41	-17.7	15%
Projected wins: 4.7

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-0.5% (60)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	57 / 59
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	-20 / -11.0
2015 TO Luck/Game	-3.5
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	92% (99%, 84%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	1.1 (-1.1)

10. Checking a lot of bounce-back boxes

S&P+ projections weight last season's production very heavily, but it also looks at recent trends. Sometimes you just have a bad year, but five-year history suggests it might be a one-off thing.

Obviously that applies. From 125th in S&P+, the Knights are projected to bounce back into the top 100, winning perhaps four to five games along the way. And with the youth, most of this rebounding team will return in 2017.

Of course, new energy combined with plenty of athletic potential could result in a rise higher than the 90s. I'm not going to call UCF an AAC contender or anything, but it wouldn't take that many good breaks to get the Knights back into bowl consideration. The schedule does feature an early trip to Michigan, but also includes six games against teams projected 78th or worse in S&P+. There are plenty of opportunities for wins.

With this youth (and with a first-time head coach), expect growth in fits and starts -- beating Maryland and losing to FIU, scaring Houston then getting blown out by Cincinnati. That sort of thing. But this was an intriguing hire, and with UCF likely still recruiting as well as anyone in the AAC not named Tom Herman, UCF should be back near the top of the conference in due time.