Tulane has a new coach and a new outlook, but do the Green Wave have enough talent?

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year's team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year's roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

1. A history lesson

In my down time (as it were), I've been slowly piecing together what will be my second book, to be released sometime this fall. It is called The 50 Best* College Football Teams of All-Time (the asterisk being very important, as it is not the truly BEST teams at all, but the most interesting, innovative and important). I'm working chronologically through it, and right now I'm into the late-1930s teams. That means that, among other teams, I've thus far written about 1925 Alabama and 1938 Tennessee, two of the first great teams from the South. And since I'm become more and more immersed in college football history, it's story time.

In 1925, Alabama went 10-0 and beat Washington in the Rose Bowl. It was considered the game that changed everything in the South. The Crimson Tide were the first southern team to play in Pasadena, as it was considered an inferior brand compared to that of the east or midwest. In fact, they only got an invitation after Dartmouth said no. But it might not have stopped there -- any of countless other teams, from Colgate to Michigan, may have also said no depending on the source. And according to my friend CJ Schexnayder, Tulane may have also declined. The Green Wave, also unbeaten, were led by eventual college football hall-of-famer Clark Shaugnessy, who ushered in the T formation, went 17-1-1 at Tulane in 1924-25, and eventually brought to Stanford a 10-0 finish, No. 2 ranking, and Rose Bowl title in 1940.

Shaughnessy was hired away by Loyola (La.) thanks to a moneybags booster, but Tulane replaced him with an even better coach: Bernie Bierman, who went 28-2 with the Green Wave and brought them a Rose Bowl bid (that they accepted this time) in 1931. He was stolen away by Minnesota, where he would win shares of seven Big Ten titles and five national titles. Still, when the upper echelon of the giant Southern Conference split away to form the SEC, Tulane was an obvious choice for membership.

When Bierman left, Ted Cox stepped in and went 10-1 with a Sugar Bowl bid in 1934. When Cox left, Red Dawson took over and went 8-1-1 with a top-five finish and Sugar Bowl bid in 1939. Good hires aplenty. Even as other SEC teams like LSU, Tennessee, Auburn, and Ole Miss were figuring things out, Tulane kept putting together solid seasons.

In the 1950s, however, the well dried up. As the university weighed how serious it was about football and whether it wanted to remain SEC-level invested, the results disappeared. Andy Pilney managed two winning records from 1954-61, and Tommy O'Boyle went 6-33-1 from 1962-65. Tulane left the SEC in 1966 and has relied on bursts of success and hit-or-miss hires ever since. The good hires (Larry Smith, Mack Brown, Tommy Bowden) left after one or two good seasons, and the bad hires left after three or four bad ones.

The program was hit hard by Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and has endured maybe its worst decade since the 1960s. From 2005 to 2015, the Green Wave averaged only 3.3 wins per season, and that includes the out-of-nowhere 7-6 campaign of 2013. Curtis Johnson couldn't maintain his 2013 level, going just 6-12 afterward, and now Tulane starts the cycle all over again with a new coach.

2. A hell of a hire

It's almost impossible to predict success or failure when it comes to coaching hires. It's such a crapshoot and so dependent on circumstance, timing, luck, and factors that we don't necessarily see ahead of time.

That said, Willie Fritz has been a slam-dunk hire for five straight schools. JUCO Blinn College had won five games in three years before Fritz and won 39 in four with him. Division II Central Missouri hadn't been to the playoffs in three decades until Fritz arrived; he won 10 games twice and left having finished above .500 11 times in 12 years. Sam Houston State had made only two FCS playoff appearances in 20 years before he took the Bearkats to back-to-back national title games in 2011-12. Georgia Southern was transitioning to FBS and coming off of an iffy season when Fritz arrived in 2014; he went 17-7 out of the gates, 14-2 in the Sun Belt.

Thanks to the AAC's attempt to collect media markets, and thanks to Tulane's residence in New Orleans, the program got a lifeline of sorts, an upgrade to the best conference in the Group of 5. It has evidently allowed the school to get a little bit more aggressive in its hiring. In mid-December, Tulane shocked many (including Georgia Southern) but stealing Fritz away from Statesboro.

If history is any indication, this should go swimmingly. Fritz has proven himself as a head coach for nearly 25 seasons, slowly climbing from one rung of the ladder to another. He is an offense-friendly coach who inherits a team that hasn't been good at offense for more than a decade, so it might take him a little while to get situated, but if he sticks around for a few years, it seems almost doubtless that he'll win some games.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 3-9 | Adj. Record: 2-10 | Final F/+ Rk: 119 | Final S&P+ Rk: 120
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
3-Sep	Duke	74	7-37	L	4%	0%	-22.4	-23.0
12-Sep	at Georgia Tech	64	10-65	L	1%	0%	-26.7	-26.5
19-Sep	Maine	N/A	38-7	W	60%	100%	+12.4
3-Oct	Central Florida	128	45-31	W	65%	99%	+12.4	+14.0
10-Oct	at Temple	45	10-49	L	3%	0%	-10.2	-23.0
16-Oct	Houston	26	7-42	L	7%	0%	-22.0	-16.0
24-Oct	at Navy	21	14-31	L	41%	23%	+14.4	+6.5
31-Oct	at Memphis	41	13-41	L	5%	0%	-1.5	+4.0
7-Nov	Connecticut	80	3-7	L	23%	24%	+0.3	+2.0
14-Nov	at Army	108	34-31	W	37%	63%	+4.6	+5.5
21-Nov	at SMU	106	21-49	L	4%	1%	-22.7	-25.0
27-Nov	Tulsa	95	34-45	L	47%	72%	-3.1	-5.0

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	16.2	122	34.4	102
Points Per Game	19.7	113	36.3	110

3. Little to offer

Defense was the calling card of Tulane's 2013 New Orleans Bowl squad. Thanks to a perfect blend of seniors and transfers, the Green Wave defense leaped to 18th in Def. S&P+, good enough to overcome an Off. S&P+ ranking of 112th.

Over the last two years, Tulane's defense regressed significantly while the offense drifted even further into the abyss: 117th on offense and 55th on defense in 2014, 122nd on offense and 102nd on defense in 2015.

The defense had its moments in 2015 but was far too inexperienced to maintain a given level from week to week. The Green Wave allowed a decent 5.7 yards per play to Duke and an abysmal 8.7 to Georgia Tech, 6.4 to Houston and 4.4 to Navy, 3.7 to UConn and 7.5 to SMU. The secondary had to replace a ton from a solid 2014 unit, then had to deal with injury and attrition during the season. The pass defense became a massive liability, and the front seven wasn't consistent enough to make up the difference. The offense, meanwhile, was as sketchy as ever, averaging better than 5.4 yards per play just four times and averaging 4.2 or worse six times.

Tulane was competitive against lesser teams but had absolutely nothing to offer against teams with a pulse.

• Games vs. S&P+ top 75:
  Average percentile performance: 10% (~top 115) | Record: 0-6 | Average score: Opp 44, Tulane 10
• Games vs. No. 76-plus:
  Average percentile performance: 39% (~top 80) | Record: 3-3 | Average score: Tulane 29, Opp 28

The decent showings against lesser teams showed some level of potential, but the constant blowout losses were too much, and the school elected to change coaches.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.28	58	IsoPPP+	77.0	121
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	33.7%	125	Succ. Rt. +	76.0	126
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	34.1	124	Def. FP+	34.4	122
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.5	60	Redzone S&P+	89.9	110
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	21.6		ACTUAL	15	-6.6

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	120	123	126	121
RUSHING	119	121	126	113
PASSING	90	123	121	122
Standard Downs		126	127	125
Passing Downs		110	115	99

Q1 Rk	123	1st Down Rk	125
Q2 Rk	104	2nd Down Rk	126
Q3 Rk	128	3rd Down Rk	111
Q4 Rk	117

4. Those run-pass rates are about to change

Due to both personal preference (Fritz is a spread-to-run guy with a lot of option in his history) and personnel necessity, Tulane is going to be running the ball a lot in 2016. Junior running backs Dontrell Hilliard and Sherman Badie and senior Josh Rounds have all shown potential explosiveness, and former star recruit Nigel Anderson is a speedster as well if he can remain eligible (he redshirted for academic reasons and was ineligible to practice in the spring).

Meanwhile, those responsible for 189 of Tulane's 205 completions last year are gone, as are the Green Wave's top two targets. Thanks to defection and injury, the Green Wave barely had enough scholarship receivers to fill the first string this spring.

Tulane's was a pass-first offense that couldn't really pass in 2015. We'll see what consistency Fritz can coax from his returnees, but personnel and identity should match up, for whatever that's worth.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Tanner Lee					143	276	1639	11	7	51.8%	19	6.4%	5.0
Jordy Joseph					46	91	619	6	3	50.5%	5	5.2%	6.3
Devin Powell	6'3, 241	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7826	16	36	157	1	0	44.4%	1	2.7%	3.8
Glen Cuiellette	6'0, 213	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8008
Darius Bradwell	6'0, 220	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7959

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Dontrell Hilliard	RB	5'11, 195	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8059	115	646	6	5.6	7.6	32.2%	0	0
Sherman Badie	RB	5'11, 199	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8253	72	310	2	4.3	4.9	36.1%	0	0
Rob Kelley	FB					65	232	1	3.6	4.6	26.2%	0	0
Lazedrick Thompson	FB	6'0, 219	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8050	45	162	1	3.6	1.9	35.6%	0	0
Josh Rounds	RB	5'11, 201	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7752	35	207	1	5.9	6.5	42.9%	2	1
Jordy Joseph	QB					14	107	0	7.6	3.4	78.6%	0	0
Devin Glenn	RB	5'8, 164	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7923	4	18	0	4.5	6.7	25.0%	0	0
Tanner Lee	QB					4	-12	0	-3.0	0.0	0.0%	7	2
Nigel Anderson	RB	5'10, 187	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8463
A.J. Walker	RB	5'10, 225	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8098
Miles Strickland	RB	5'11, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7857

5. Get them to the edge

Badie was a revelation in 2014, averaging 9.1 highlight yards per opportunity. In 2015, Hilliard averaged 7.6 and Rounds averaged 6.7. Only Rounds was able to produce even decent efficiency numbers, however, and that was in just 35 carries (19 against Maine and UCF).

At Georgia Southern, the top four backs in 2015 averaged 7.2 yards per carry (leader Matt Breida averaged 7.9). In 2014, it was 6.9. But that was with two excellent option quarterbacks (Kevin Ellison, Favian Upshaw) running the show. With a quarterback who shows decent option prowess, these Tulane running backs could thrive on the edge. But ... does that QB exist?

Senior Devin Powell has played in parts of the last four seasons and took an injury redshirt after 2014. He has been a loyal soldier, so to speak, but he has completed only 51 percent of his passes (with seven touchdowns to eight interceptions) in his career, and with sacks he has rushed for minus-43 yards.

Sophomore Glen Cuiellette and freshman Darius Bradwell showed promise in the run game this spring but appeared well behind Powell in the passing department. Does Fritz turn the offense over to a younger guy? I'm guessing so, but you do still have to be able to pass a little.

Of course, if Tulane great Shaun King were behind center, the passing game still might struggle. Neither Teddy Veal nor Devon Breaux were incredibly prolific in 2015, but they were still the best options on average, and they're both gone. Trey Scott is the only returning wideout who caught more than 11 balls last year. The return of injured sophomore Terren Encalade helps, but when your two leading returning receivers are running backs, you've probably got a green, unreliable unit. (To their credit, though, Badie and Hilliard did catch 50 combined passes.)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Teddy Veal	WR-Z					85	48	644	56.5%	22.2%	7.6	52.9%	44.7%	1.47
Devon Breaux	WR-X					60	25	431	41.7%	15.7%	7.2	51.7%	33.3%	2.04
Sherman Badie	RB	5'11, 199	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8253	44	27	284	61.4%	11.5%	6.5	47.7%	34.1%	1.63
Dontrell Hilliard	RB	5'11, 195	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8059	41	23	267	56.1%	10.7%	6.5	56.1%	39.0%	1.49
Trey Scott	WR-X	6'2, 222	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7594	37	18	205	48.6%	9.7%	5.5	40.5%	40.5%	1.18
Terren Encalade (2014)	WR	6'1, 186	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7719	30	20	235	66.7%	7.2%	7.8	70.0%	N/A	N/A
Larry Dace	WR-Z	5'10, 173	Sr.	NR	NR	24	11	125	45.8%	6.3%	5.2	45.8%	33.3%	1.52
Charles Jones	TE	6'4, 234	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	20	17	131	85.0%	5.2%	6.6	65.0%	45.0%	1.33
Rickey Preston	WR-Z	6'1, 174	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8433	18	8	82	44.4%	4.7%	4.6	27.8%	27.8%	1.49
Josh Rounds	RB	5'11, 201	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7752	12	8	61	66.7%	3.1%	5.1	41.7%	41.7%	0.90
Kendall Ardoin	TE	6'5, 228	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7959	12	6	52	50.0%	3.1%	4.3	58.3%	41.7%	1.06
Rob Kelley	FB					11	6	33	54.5%	2.9%	3.0	54.5%	18.2%	1.54
Andrew Hicks	WR-X	6'3, 198	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7959	7	2	52	28.6%	1.8%	7.4	14.3%	28.6%	2.59
Devin Glenn	RB	5'8, 164	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7923	5	2	5	40.0%	1.3%	1.0	60.0%	0.0%	0.00
Jacob Robertson Jr.	WR	6'2, 175	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8503
Darnell Mooney	WR	6'1, 170	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8098
D.J. Owens	WR	5'11, 195	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8058
Chris Johnson	WR	6'2, 185	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7598

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	72.9	2.13	2.25	34.1%	41.2%	26.1%	78.2	5.6%	6.5%
Rank	128	128	123	111	128	125	100	78	49

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Arturo Uzdavinis	LT					11	36
Nathan Shienle	C					9	33
Chris Taylor	RG	6'3, 320	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8416	12	28
Colton Hanson	LG					12	24
Todd Jacquet	RT	6'5, 292	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8025	12	18
Junior Diaz	C	6'3, 292	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8251	3	3
John Leglue	LT	6'7, 298	So.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	1	1
Leeward Brown	LG	6'3, 344	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8535	0	0
Brandon Godfrey	RG					0	0
Devon Johnson	RT	6'4, 324	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8159	0	0
Kenneth Santa Marina	OT	6'6, 324	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8650	0	0
Keeyon Smart	OT	6'4, 332	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8174
Phabion Woodard	OL	6'4, 293	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7798
Tyler Johnson	OL	6'4, 270	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7698

6. There's size, at least

Tulane's offensive line got absolutely no push in short-yardage situations last year and allowed defenders in the backfield like it was their job. That mitigates the loss of three starters -- losing starters isn't a good thing, but if it's from a bad line, how much does it really hurt? -- but still raises a pretty scary question: Even if a QB does stick, and even if the running backs are as explosive as advertised, what does it matter if the line is getting blown up?

At least the size is decent. New offensive line coach Alex Atkins (who made the trip from Statesboro to New Orleans with Fritz) inherits a group of returnees that averages 6'4, 316. If you don't have proven quality, you might as well be big enough that defenders get tired running around you.

The good news for this offense, as it were, is that the two most exciting players are juniors. Hilliard and Badie could both return in 2017, when there's a better chance that everybody else on the offense has their act together.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.24	58	IsoPPP+	90.8	98
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	42.8%	80	Succ. Rt. +	91.6	97
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	26.2	126	Off. FP+	25.7	124
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	5.0	113	Redzone S&P+	88.8	109
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	20.6		ACTUAL	16.0	-4.6

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	80	96	97	98
RUSHING	74	73	64	72
PASSING	74	104	125	89
Standard Downs		95	83	100
Passing Downs		94	115	83

Q1 Rk	89	1st Down Rk	100
Q2 Rk	98	2nd Down Rk	109
Q3 Rk	95	3rd Down Rk	72
Q4 Rk	120

7. A Jack Curtis defense

Fritz inherited defensive coordinator Jack Curtis from previous coach Jeff Monken when he got to Georgia Southern and decided to keep him. It quickly became apparent that this was a pretty good idea. After ranking 93rd in Def. S&P+ in GASO's 2014 FBS debut, the Eagles improved to 44th last season thanks to an overpursuing style of sorts -- the Eagles attacked the run on standard downs and attacked the passer on passing downs.

We'll see how well that plays with a lot of pass-first teams in the AAC, but Curtis is presumably adaptable, and he's done pretty good work at the FBS level so far. And if you look solely at assets and not at the defense's work as a whole last year, you find some decent potential.

• Senior tackle Tanzel Smart is a legitimate all-star, a one-man stuff rate who recorded 13 non-sack tackles for loss and 52.0 tackles overall (a lot for a 300-pounder).
• Senior linebackers Nico Marley and Eric Thomas, who added another 18.5 non-sack TFLS.
• Junior defensive backs Jarrod Franklin and Parry Nickerson, who combined for 8.5 TFLs and 11 pass breakups.

That's half a starting lineup's worth of big-play guys -- three who can attack the run and two who attack both the ball and the line of scrimmage. You can work with that.

Of course, Curtis still has to find another six starters.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	107.5	2.53	2.98	39.8%	76.2%	22.0%	125.6	4.5%	11.6%
Rank	41	19	46	83	111	40	28	85	11

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Tanzel Smart	DT	6'1, 304	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8067	12	52.0	7.6%	15.0	2.0	0	0	1	0
Royce LaFrance	DE					12	37.0	5.4%	13.5	6.5	0	4	1	0
Ade Aruna	DE	6'5, 241	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8093	12	28.0	4.1%	5.0	3.0	0	2	1	0
Corey Redwine	NT					11	25.5	3.7%	7.0	3.0	0	0	1	0
Sean Wilson	NT	6'3, 271	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7893	10	25.0	3.7%	6.0	2.0	0	1	0	0
Daren Williams	DE	6'3, 243	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7933	11	12.0	1.8%	2.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Calvin Thomas	DT					9	8.0	1.2%	3.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Eldrick Washington	DT	6'2, 263	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8085	6	7.0	1.0%	1.0	1.0	0	1	0	0
Luke Jackson	DE	6'3, 235	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7863	12	2.5	0.4%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jason Stewart	DT	6'5, 389	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7901
Eric Bell	DT	6'2, 273	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7960
Quinlan Carroll	DE	6'1, 206	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7876
Braynon Edwards	DT	6'1, 365	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7693
John Washington	DT	6'1, 302	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8488
Peter Woullard	DE	6'3, 248	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7693
De'Andre Williams	DL	6'4, 260	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8399
Deion Rainey	DL	6'3, 244	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8204

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Nico Marley	WLB	5'10, 208	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7855	12	72.0	10.5%	13.0	1.0	1	0	1	0
Eric Thomas	MLB	5'11, 243	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7652	11	58.0	8.5%	7.5	1.0	0	1	1	0
Rae Juan Marbley	MLB	5'11, 231	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8406	12	31.5	4.6%	0.0	0.0	1	0	0	0
Eric Bowie	WLB	6'1, 227	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7894	11	15.0	2.2%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Zachery Harris	LB	6'0, 218	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8026	3	10.0	1.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Robert Kennedy	LB	6'1, 243	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7693	12	5.0	0.7%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Lawrence Graham	LB	6'0, 224	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7824

8. Strength at linebacker

With stability should come improvement in the secondary. Of the 11 contributors listed below, only three played in all 12 games last year, and the other eight combined to miss 34 games. A starting back five of Franklin, Nickerson, two more safeties (from a pool of juniors Leonard Davis and Tristan Cooper and sophomore Roderic Teamer) and one more corner (among senior Richard Allen and sophomores Donnie Lewis, Taris Shenall, Dedrick Shy, and Stephon Lofton) could be strong if it remains intact for most of the year.

Meanwhile, up front, Smart loses counterparts Royce LaFrance and Corey Redwine but does get back nose tackle Sean Wilson (an undersized play-maker) and ends Ade Aruna and Daren Williams. Three-star redshirt freshman John Washington might be able to make an impact, too.

The linebacking corps is the strength, though. Granted, neither Marley, Thomas, nor Rae Juan Marbley showed any sort of blitzing presence, but stopping the run appears to be priority No. 1 for Curtis, and he's got pieces for doing that.

Honestly, you can talk yourself into each level of this defense doing pretty well until you remember the importance of a pass rush. Tulane's rush was strong last year, but that was mostly due to LaFrance, Redwine, and Aruna, only one of whom is back. If a new play-maker like Williams breaks through, then Tulane should rebound defensively. But it might take a new guy -- the returnees haven't proven much. But at the least, there are one or two exciting guys at each level, and thanks to last year's injuries, the back seven has more experience and potential depth.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jarrod Franklin	NB	6'1, 208	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7819	12	64.5	9.4%	5	1.5	0	3	0	0
Darion Monroe	SS					11	63.5	9.3%	5.5	0	3	4	0	1
Parry Nickerson	CB	6'0, 182	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7959	12	43.5	6.4%	3.5	0	0	8	1	1
Donnie Lewis	CB	6'0, 178	So.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	11	28.0	4.1%	0	0	0	3	0	0
Richard Allen	CB	5'10, 178	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7920	5	17.0	2.5%	0	0	0	4	0	1
Roderic Teamer	FS	5'11, 191	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7600	11	17.0	2.5%	1	0	1	3	1	0
Taris Shenall	CB	5'10, 171	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7726	12	13.5	2.0%	0	0	1	1	0	0
Leonard Davis (2014)	S	6'0, 198	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7919	12	13.0	2.0%	0.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Tristan Cooper	SS	6'0, 181	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7859	7	10.0	1.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Dedrick Shy	CB	6'2, 172	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7752	6	8.0	1.2%	0	0	1	2	0	0
Malik Eugene	S					11	8.0	1.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
William Townsend	S	6'0, 217	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	NR
Stephon Lofton	CB	5'11, 174	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7652
Tre Jackson	DB	5'10, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8540
P.J. Hall	DB	6'0, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8569
Will Harper	DB	6'1, 200	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8148
Eric Lewis	DB	6'0, 185	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8025
Chase Napoleon	DB	5'10, 200	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7757

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Zachary Block	6'4, 182	So.	47	37.9	1	18	3	44.7%
Peter Picerelli			31	36.7	0	15	12	87.1%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Trevor Simms			51	63.3	22	2	43.1%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Andrew DiRocco	6'1, 173	Jr.	29-30	9-9	100.0%	0-1	0.0%
Trevor Simms			0-0	0-0	N/A	0-2	0.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Sherman Badie	KR	5'11, 199	Jr.	15	20.7	0
Rickey Preston	KR	6'1, 174	So.	14	17.6	0
Darion Monroe	PR			11	6.6	0
Teddy Veal	PR			3	5.0	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	94
Field Goal Efficiency	63
Punt Return Success Rate	88
Kick Return Success Rate	99
Punt Success Rate	111
Kickoff Success Rate	56

9. Any field position help would be great

Andrew DiRocco didn't have just a ton to do last season -- only two teams attempted fewer field goals than Tulane, and most of teams that attempted so few did so in part because their kicker stunk. But while the staff didn't appear to trust DiRocco's distance, he was automatic inside of 40 yards. So if Tulane gets to at least the 25-yard line more frequently, points should come.

The other aspects of special teams could use a little bit of work. Zachary Block averaged under 38 yards per kick as a freshman, kickoffs guy Trevor Simms is gone, and decent punt returner Darion Monroe is, too. The Tulane offense will likely be explosive and drastically inconsistent in 2016; any field position boost the Green Wave could get from special teams to combat that inconsistency would be lovely for the defense.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
1-Sep	at Wake Forest	74	-18.6	14%
10-Sep	Southern U.	NR	18.7	86%
17-Sep	Navy	66	-13.5	22%
24-Sep	UL-Lafayette	106	-0.6	49%
1-Oct	at Massachusetts	127	-1.0	48%
7-Oct	at Central Florida	99	-11.1	26%
14-Oct	Memphis	77	-11.2	26%
22-Oct	at Tulsa	93	-13.1	22%
29-Oct	SMU	98	-4.4	40%
12-Nov	at Houston	53	-22.5	10%
19-Nov	Temple	61	-14.3	20%
26-Nov	at Connecticut	81	-16.0	18%
Projected wins: 3.8

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-31.8% (114)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	94 / 80
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	1 / -1.1
2015 TO Luck/Game	+0.9
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	64% (54%, 75%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	3.8 (-0.8)

10. We'll see how long this takes

Fritz has won for most of the last two decades. He's won at the JUCO level, the Division II level, the FCS level, and the lower-FBS level. Now he takes over in a job that is only a slight upgrade over his last one, and it's only an upgrade at all because of the conference affiliation.

The bar is low at Tulane, and history tells us Fritz will clear it. But even if he does, how long will it take? The defense could succeed with minimal injuries, but the offense has been bad for quite a while and basically has two exciting players. Granted, they come at the right position for Fritz's offense (running back), but quarterback, receiver, and offensive line are all either unknowns ... or knowns for the wrong reasons.

Despite a woeful No. 122 projection in S&P+, Tulane is projected to win 3.8 games this fall thanks to a schedule that features six opponents projected 93rd or worse. If Fritz is able to kindle something on offense and get the Green Wave into the No. 90-110 range, they could make at least a temporary run at bowl eligibility. (Beating Wake Forest in Week 1, though unlikely, would be huge in that regard.) More likely, this becomes a Year 0 situation in which Fritz takes stock, then engineers a step forward in 2017.

Tulane was once a college football powerhouse but was either unwilling or unable (or, most likely, both) to keep up in the Southern arms race. But with the bump up to AAC and what appears to be a dynamite hire on paper, the Green Wave have an opportunity to improve their lot in life. We'll see if they take advantage.