Why'd East Carolina fire a good football coach? In search of a higher ceiling

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year's team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year's roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

1. Breaking point vs. writing on the wall

We tend to stick up for the good dudes, the coaches who seem to genuinely care about being father figures for their players, the players who seem to truly get it, the figures who remind us of the game's humanity.

Ruffin McNeill always seemed like one of college football's good dudes. During games, he seemed to spend most of his game patting players on the helmet, making eye contact and pumping his fist to somebody, or speaking with clear admiration to an assistant.

As far as I can recall, he's the one coach about whom I've ever said something to the effect of, "If I had a son, I'd want him to play for this guy." (I don't have a son, and if I did, he wouldn't have the talent, athleticism, or wherewithal, but go with me here.)

McNeill has also proved to be a pretty good head coach. He inherited a solid program from Skip Holtz in 2010, and after a rough, 11-14 start, he won 26 games from 2012-14. After losing his offensive coordinator (Lincoln Riley), a record-setting quarterback (Shane Carden), a record-setting receiver (Justin Hardy), and an all-conference center (Taylor Hudson), the Pirates dipped in 2015. They lost four games by a touchdown or less and slipped to 5-7, but with more continuity and perhaps a couple more bounces, they would have likely rejoined the ranks of the AAC's bowl teams in 2016 and beyond.

Is that enough? ECU athletic director Jeff Compher didn't think so. Stating simply that "Our expectations are to compete for championships," Compher fired McNeill at the end of the season.

The reaction from the writer class (of which I like to think I am a member) was swift and harsh. What the hell is ECU thinking? How do you fire a guy after one unlucky rebuilding year? What the hell does ECU think it can be?

Over the ensuing months, however, I have begun to view the firing in a different light.

1. There's a process here. Most of the time, I think of firing/not firing in this regard. You get fired when you have earned it. You start out with a mulligan year, and if you sustain success (like, say, winning 26 games in three years), maybe you earn a second. McNeill spent one in 2015, and if his Pirates didn't rebound as expected in 2016, maybe he'd end up in some trouble at the end of the year.

This seems to be my go-to logic when it comes to these decisions.

There's another strain of logic, though, that perhaps makes as much sense, even if it is less humane.

2. If you don't think you can meet your goals with a coach, why wait around? The AAC is now loaded with exciting, young coaches: Tom Herman at Houston, Matt Rhule at Temple, Chad Morris at SMU, Philip Montgomery at Tulsa, Bob Diaco at UConn, a resurgent Willie Taggart at USF, and now Scott Frost at UCF and Mike Norvell at Memphis.

There are some stalwarts (Ken Niumatalolo at Navy, Tommy Tuberville at Cincinnati) and an exciting new hire who isn't as young (Willie Fritz at Tulane), but this conference has done a wonderful job of upgrading its coaching talent. A large majority of AAC teams now think they can produce top-50 output, and a few of them have already been proven right.

McNeill's squads, meanwhile, ranked between 63rd and 86th in S&P+ in five of his six years. The Pirates peaked at 54th in 2013, but in 2014, even with the record-setters and hot young offensive coordinator, they ranked just 72nd. Solid? Certainly. Good enough to compete with the best two of Temple, USF, Cincinnati, UCF, and UConn moving forward? Maybe not.

When somebody brings as much class as McNeill, I like to think that earns him a longer hook. McNeill was going to keep ECU bowling in most years. But if you see Glen Mason Territory -- the conundrum when a coach wins enough to raise the bar but can't clear the raised bar -- coming, and you see other members of your conference getting their acts together very quickly, is there a point to waiting around?

Regardless of your answer, Compher went out and tried to find his own up-and-comer, and he might have landed on a decent one in Scottie Montgomery. The former Duke receiver spent five years under David Cutcliffe at his alma mater and three under Mike Tomlin with the Pittsburgh Steelers; he was Cutcliffe's right-hand man -- offensive coordinator, associate head coach, quarterbacks coach -- these past two seasons as Duke attempted to maintain the gains of the 10-win 2013 season. Cutcliffe, one of the more well-respected coaches in the business, raved about him.

Montgomery brought in a staff of mostly hungry assistants and now tries to prove his athletic director right.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 5-7 | Adj. Record: 6-6 | Final F/+ Rk: 73 | Final S&P+ Rk: 76
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
5-Sep	Towson	N/A	28-20	W	57%	91%	-5.4
12-Sep	at Florida	27	24-31	L	33%	15%	+4.9	+13.5
19-Sep	at Navy	21	21-45	L	25%	2%	-15.7	-20.0
26-Sep	Virginia Tech	59	35-28	W	63%	74%	+18.3	+15.5
3-Oct	at SMU	106	49-23	W	81%	100%	+17.3	+20.5
10-Oct	at BYU	35	38-45	L	42%	24%	+2.6	+1.0
17-Oct	Tulsa	95	30-17	W	62%	83%	+9.7	+2.5
22-Oct	Temple	45	14-24	L	28%	8%	-3.6	-12.5
30-Oct	at Connecticut	80	13-31	L	12%	3%	-23.6	-25.5
7-Nov	South Florida	44	17-22	L	41%	20%	-5.5	-9.0
19-Nov	at Central Florida	128	44-7	W	81%	100%	+20.6	+22.5
28-Nov	Cincinnati	72	16-19	L	60%	68%	-6.0	-4.0

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	28.7	70	29.4	75
Points Per Game	27.4	76	26.0	54

2. Running out of steam

Perhaps adding to Compher's frustration was the constant what-if nature of 2015. ECU finished the season 0-5 against teams ranked in the S&P+ top 50, losing by seven at No. 27 Florida, by seven at No. 35 BYU, and by five to No. 44 USF. Those results were both encouraging and annoying, but it gave them no margin for error. And when they laid an egg at UConn on Halloween weekend, then dropped the season finale to Cincinnati via last-second field goal, the frustration evidently boiled over.

Again, a step backwards was to be expected in 2015. But the Pirates were still relatively fine, and in line for a bowl bid, until a bit of a late-season fade.

• First 7 games:
  Record: 4-3 | Performance vs. S&P+ projection: +4.5 PPG | Yards per play: ECU 6.0, Opp 5.6
• Last 5 games:
  Record: 1-4 | Performance vs. S&P+ projection: -3.6 PPG | Yards per play: ECU 5.3, Opp 5.1

Again, McNeill's firing may or may not be justifiable, but between the missed opportunities early and the late fade, you can understand how 2015 may have felt pretty frustrating.

(Plus, there was the matter of poor close-game finishes. Though these results are often random, the Pirates were 4-9 in games decided by one possession over the last three seasons, which added to the "missed opportunities" vibe.)

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.16	116	IsoPPP+	91.6	98
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	42.8%	51	Succ. Rt. +	106.9	43
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	27.4	18	Def. FP+	27.2	21
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.4	67	Redzone S&P+	100.2	76
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	21.4		ACTUAL	19	-2.4

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	55	83	43	98
RUSHING	107	104	79	109
PASSING	27	72	27	90
Standard Downs		93	52	103
Passing Downs		65	31	76

Q1 Rk	71	1st Down Rk	71
Q2 Rk	56	2nd Down Rk	97
Q3 Rk	86	3rd Down Rk	78
Q4 Rk	68

3. A Scottie Montgomery/Tony Petersen offense

Montgomery's choice of Tony Petersen as his offensive coordinator made quite a bit of sense. Montgomery seems to prefer having a quarterback who could steal yardage with his legs here and there, and at Louisiana Tech last year, Petersen was able to do quite a bit of damage with athletic Florida transfer Jeff Driskel behind center.

Driskel attempted 36 passes per game (including sacks) and rushed about five to six times per game. Both Montgomery and ECU fans are used to pass-first attacks, and Petersen's was certainly that -- Tech ran just 50 percent of the time on standard downs and 26 percent on passing downs (almost identical to ECU's rates). But he operated at a slower tempo than ECU while creating a few more solo tackles (i.e. spreading defenses out a bit more).

There is no Driskel in Greenville in 2016. ECU had three quarterbacks with starting experience at the end of 2015, but Blake Kemp and Kurt Benkert elected to transfer, and James Summers moved to running back late last season. That basically leaves redshirt freshman John Jacobs and journeyman Philip Nelson.

Nelson took most of the snaps for Minnesota in 2012-13, then transferred to Rutgers when he lost the starting job to Mitch Leidner. At Rutgers, he was kicked out of school for his role in a pretty nasty fight, and he's in line to receive one last chance by walking on at ECU. He and Benkert were the main adversaries in this spring's QB battle, and with Benkert out of the picture, the job seems to be Nelson's almost by default.

Nelson was an inefficient passer but showed decent athleticism in his time at Minnesota. The latter is fine; the former must change if ECU is to put together a decent offense.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Blake Kemp					260	375	2658	16	10	69.3%	13	3.4%	6.6
Philip Nelson (Minnesota/Rutgers)	6'1, 213	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8584	94	186	1306	9	6	50.5%	14	7.0%	6.0
James Summers	6'3, 210	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8248	60	94	683	5	2	63.8%	15	13.8%	5.5
John Jacobs	6'2, 220	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8083
Reid Herring	6'3, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8334

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Chris Hairston	RB					165	754	8	4.6	5.9	32.7%	2	0
James Summers	QB/RB	6'3, 210	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8248	81	526	8	6.5	7.0	43.2%	2	0
Anthony Scott	RB	5'9, 187	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8308	49	207	1	4.2	4.4	36.7%	1	1
Blake Kemp	QB					26	93	2	3.6	1.8	42.3%	6	4
Shawn Furlow	RB	5'10, 187	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8357	25	83	0	3.3	6.0	24.0%	0	0
Marquez Grayson	RB					13	88	0	6.8	12.8	30.8%	0	0
Devin Anderson	RB	5'9, 203	So.	NR	NR	5	45	0	9.0	4.8	80.0%	0	0
Hussein Howe	RB	5'9, 175	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8554
Johnnie Glaspie	RB	5'11, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8355

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Zay Jones	SLOT	6'1, 197	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8161	125	98	1093	78.4%	27.7%	8.7	58.4%	60.0%	1.34
Bryce Williams	TE					77	58	602	75.3%	17.1%	7.8	58.4%	48.1%	1.46
Trevon Brown	WR	6'2, 210	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7683	65	41	496	63.1%	14.4%	7.6	67.7%	53.8%	1.23
Davon Grayson	WR	6'2, 195	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7793	57	33	448	57.9%	12.6%	7.9	66.7%	38.6%	1.85
Chris Hairston	RB					31	29	193	93.5%	6.9%	6.2	54.8%	41.9%	1.34
Brandon Bishop	WR	5'11, 184	Sr.	NR	NR	25	15	158	60.0%	5.5%	6.3	36.0%	52.0%	1.20
Jimmy Williams	WR	5'11, 189	Sr.	NR	NR	24	15	137	62.5%	5.3%	5.7	75.0%	50.0%	1.00
Quay Johnson	SLOT	5'10, 177	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7759	19	17	164	89.5%	4.2%	8.6	42.1%	47.4%	1.65
DaQuan Barnes	WR	6'1, 187	Sr.	NR	NR	14	6	49	42.9%	3.1%	3.5	100.0%	28.6%	1.22
Anthony Scott	RB	5'9, 187	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8308	6	4	18	66.7%	1.3%	3.0	16.7%	16.7%	1.71
Stephen Baggett	TE	6'5, 232	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7893	5	5	40	100.0%	1.1%	8.0	80.0%	80.0%	0.92
Terrell Green	WR	6'4, 209	So.	NR	0.8100
Curtis Burston	WR	6'1, 220	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8154
Malik Gray	WR	6'1, 199	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7659
Deondre Farrier	WR	6'1, 195	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8464
Tahj Deans	WR	6'2, 185	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8348
Anthony Watley	TE	6'3, 240	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8025

4. Intriguing efficiency guys

We'll have to see how much quality ECU gets from the quarterback position, but Nelson (or whoever else might win the job) will have some solid weapons around him. Summers' legs were key in ECU's win over Virginia Tech (21 carries, 169 yards), and he and junior Anthony Scott could make for a nice, diverse pairing in the backfield. Meanwhile, last year's top seven wideouts are all back, including slot man extraordinaire Isaiah "Zay" Jones.

It's hard to say how much big-play potential exists here -- senior Davon Grayson is the only player who averaged better than a pretty mediocre 12.1 yards per catch in 2015 -- but Jones was remarkably efficient in the slot, generating a 60 percent success rate and allowing for ECU to get away with using the pass as an extension of an otherwise shaky run game. Grayson aside, most of the other targets managed at least a 50 percent success rate as well.

This is a solid unit, and young reinforcements could provide competition: between three-star freshman running backs Hussein Howe and Johnnie Glaspie, sophomore WRs Terrell Green, Curtis Burston, and Malik Gray, and redshirt freshman Deondre Farrier, it's conceivable that one or two youngsters could crack into the rotation.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	89.1	2.51	3.17	36.1%	62.5%	25.1%	101.1	4.2%	8.6%
Rank	112	116	72	99	86	120	60	49	88

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Ike Harris	LT					11	37
J.T. Boyd	RG	6'4, 298	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7626	12	23
Quincy McKinney	LG					9	22
C.J. Struyk	C					7	19
Tre Robertson	LG					4	15
Brandon Smith	RT	6'8, 341	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8277	11	11
Dontae Levingston	RT					1	11
Christian Matau	C	6'3, 334	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7433	5	5
Stewart Hinson	LT					0	0
Kyle Erickson	RG	6'4, 297	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7659	0	0
Bladen Gatling	RG	6'2, 330	Sr.	NR	NR	0	0
Messiah Rice	RT	6'5, 298	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8506	0	0
Garrett McGhin	OL	6'6, 307	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7744	0	0
Justin Sandifer	OL	6'5, 310	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8317	0	0
Dalton Montgomery	OL	6'6, 255	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7719
Jarred Dorton	OL	6'6, 345	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8300
Branden Pena	OL	6'3, 290	Jr.	NR	NR
Cotez Herrin	OL	6'3, 330	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8188
D'Ante Smith	OL	6'4, 310	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8273
Sean Bailey	OL	6'6, 335	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8137
Jack Doyle	OL	6'4, 260	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8025

5. A rebuild on the line

The skill positions are loaded with potential, but between quarterback and offensive line, there are concerns. Up front, ECU does return three players with starting experience -- guard JT Boyd, tackle Brandon Smith, and part-time starter Christian Matau -- but will otherwise be choosing from a pool of youngsters and career reserves. Players like junior Justin Sandifer, sophomore Messiah Rice, and JUCO transfer Jarred Dorton were three-star recruits, and it doesn't appear that size will be much of an issue here. But inexperience could be problematic. New line coach Geep Wade, formerly of MTSU (where his lines kept defenders out of the backfield pretty well), will have his work cut out for him out of the gates.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.17	25	IsoPPP+	99.8	68
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	43.0%	84	Succ. Rt. +	96.4	76
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	29.7	71	Off. FP+	29.7	75
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.4	60	Redzone S&P+	103.4	54
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	19.9		ACTUAL	16.0	-3.9

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	66	77	76	68
RUSHING	69	79	76	66
PASSING	67	71	89	67
Standard Downs		76	71	74
Passing Downs		72	86	68

Q1 Rk	69	1st Down Rk	70
Q2 Rk	75	2nd Down Rk	71
Q3 Rk	24	3rd Down Rk	50
Q4 Rk	90

6. A Kenwick Thompson defense

After spending 13 seasons in the Bay Area, Kenwick Thompson followed a Bay Area coach to Nashville. Thompson was Texas Southern's defensive coordinator for much of the 1990s before landing on the staffs of Fitz Hill (2001-04) and Dick Tomey (2005-06) at San Jose State, then coaching linebackers for Jeff Tedford at California for six years (2007-12). After a year back at SJSU as defensive coordinator, he ended up at Vanderbilt's linebackers coach under former Stanford defensive coordinator Derek Mason.

It's hard to tell from this diverse set of influences what a Thompson defense might look like in Greenville. In his one year as SJSU DC, his defense appeared to be a read-and-react type of group, making few big plays but occasionally preventing them pretty well. Vanderbilt's 2015 defense, however, was a bit of the opposite, risking some big gains in the name of efficiency and occasional havoc.

ECU's 2015 defense was far more like Thompson's 2013 defense than Vandy's. McNeill's D was always a bit of a bend-don't-break attack, forming a cloud and waiting to pounce on mistakes. The Pirates had almost no disruptive presence up front last fall, ranking 101st in Adj. Sack Rate and 126th in stuff rate. If Thompson has designs on replicating VU's strong 2015 D, he'll have to find some play-makers up front.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	92.4	3.09	3.54	35.4%	82.0%	13.6%	77.7	5.8%	5.2%
Rank	94	94	97	34	125	126	101	39	102

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Fred Presley	DE	6'3, 271	Sr.	NR	NR	12	34.0	4.9%	4.0	0.0	0	0	2	0
Terrell Stanley	DE					12	31.5	4.5%	6.5	3.0	0	1	1	0
Demetri McGill	DT	6'1, 314	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8395	12	28.5	4.1%	5.5	2.5	0	0	0	0
Johnathon White	DE					11	24.0	3.4%	6.5	1.5	0	1	0	0
Demage Bailey	DT	6'5, 316	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7800	10	14.0	2.0%	1.5	0.0	0	0	1	0
Darius Commissiong	DE	6'2, 305	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8322	10	7.0	1.0%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Mike Myers	DE	6'0, 290	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7583	7	4.5	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Justin Brown	DT	6'3, 310	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8392	5	3.0	0.4%	1.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Anthony Orr	DT	6'2, 353	Sr.	NR	NR
Shaun James	DE	6'4, 255	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8033
Raequan Purvis	DL	6'2, 270	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8244

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Zeek Bigger	ILB					12	75.5	10.8%	6.5	1.5	0	1	0	0
Jordan Williams	ILB	6'0, 230	Jr.	NR	NR	12	63.5	9.1%	6.0	2.0	1	0	1	0
Montese Overton	OLB					12	55.0	7.9%	10.0	7.5	0	7	0	0
Joe Allely	OLB	6'1, 230	Jr.	NR	NR	11	26.0	3.7%	2.0	1.5	0	1	1	0
Cam White	ILB	5'11, 213	Sr.	NR	NR	12	21.0	3.0%	2.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Pat Green	OLB	6'2, 217	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8080	12	14.0	2.0%	2.0	0.0	0	0	3	0
Yiannis Bowden	OLB	6'5, 225	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8235	11	13.5	1.9%	3.5	3.5	1	1	0	0
Ray Tillman	ILB	6'1, 206	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8175	10	12.0	1.7%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Devaris Brunson	ILB	6'1, 220	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8747	5	10.0	1.4%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Dayon Pratt	OLB	6'4, 230	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7400	6	8.0	1.1%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Darius Wright	ILB					11	7.5	1.1%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Reece Speight	OLB	6'3, 234	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7886	12	2.5	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Joe Carter	ILB	6'2, 222	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7533
C.J. Maybin	OLB	6'4, 195	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8023
Chance Purvis	LB	6'4, 220	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8199
Kendall Futrell	LB	6'2, 215	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8032

7. Wanted: Disruption up front

ECU does return some veterans who showed just enough big-play potential last year to provide hope. Tackle Demetri McGill is relatively quick for his size (5.5 TFLs from a 315-pounder isn't the most common thing in the world), end Fred Presley appears to be a pretty good run defender, linebacker Jordan Williams has proven himself, and sophomore linebacker Yiannis Bowden could be a star pass rusher in the making.

Still, this was a passive defense last year, and now it lacks its only truly dynamic play-maker, linebacker Montese Overton.

Experience in the front seven won't be an issue, at least. The top five returning linemen and eight of nine returning linebackers are either juniors or seniors. The combination of experience, a new coaching staff, and a relatively disappointing/underachieving previous season can often result in a sudden turnaround.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Travon Simmons	FS	5'10, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7500	12	38.0	5.5%	1	0	0	9	0	0
Josh Hawkins	CB					12	35.0	5.0%	0	0	2	4	0	0
DaShaun Amos	CB	6'1, 189	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7600	11	28.5	4.1%	1	0	0	5	0	0
Rocco Scarfone	CB					11	25.5	3.7%	0.5	0	0	6	0	0
Terrell Richardson	SS	6'0, 211	Sr.	NR	NR	12	25.5	3.7%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Domonique Lennon	FS					12	23.5	3.4%	0	0	0	1	0	0
DaShawn Benton	SS	6'0, 191	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8181	7	22.5	3.2%	1	0	2	2	1	0
Bobby Fulp	CB	6'4, 195	Jr.	NR	NR	12	15.5	2.2%	0	0	1	0	0	0
Corey Seargent	CB	6'0, 180	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8137	9	11.0	1.6%	0	0	1	6	0	0
Travis Phillips	DB	5'11, 178	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7900	4	3.0	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Chris Love	DB	5'10, 169	Jr.	NR	NR	4	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Nhyre Quinerly	DB	5'11, 180	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8310
Colby Gore	DB	5'11, 170	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7986
Javontay Smith	DB	6'0, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8375
Emmanuel Jones	DB	6'0, 175	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8355
Keyshawn Canady	DB	6'0, 185	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8214
Kenyon Taylor	DB	6'2, 170	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7889

8. Thinned out in the back

With the return of cornerbacks DaShaun Amos and Corey Seargent and safeties Travon Simmons and DaShawn Benton, ECU does appear to have some exciting athletes in the back. And once again, this is an experienced unit -- everyone but Seargent is either a junior or senior.

But the depth thins out quickly. Three of last year's top six are gone, and if any of those mentioned above were to slump or get hurt, Thompson would be looking at a deep pool of freshmen to fill spots on the two-deep. Granted, this might not be the worst thing in the world -- redshirt freshman Nhyre Quinerly was one of the gems of the 2015 recruiting class, and three incoming true freshmen were three-star recruits per the 247Sports Composite -- but playing freshmen out of necessity is always a scary proposition.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Worth Gregory	6'3, 209	Sr.	60	43.1	6	13	29	70.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Caleb Pratt	6'3, 190	So.	60	61.6	31	3	51.7%
Connor Torruella			5	63.0	1	0	20.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Davis Plowman	5'10, 193	Sr.	37-39	7-7	100.0%	3-5	60.0%
Connor Torruella			4-4	0-1	0.0%	0-0

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Quay Johnson	KR	5'10, 177	Jr.	27	20.1	0
Trevon Brown	KR	6'2, 210	Jr.	10	19.3	0
Quay Johnson	PR	5'10, 177	Jr.	19	9.0	0
Trevon Brown	PR	6'2, 210	Jr.	2	6.5	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	67
Field Goal Efficiency	48
Punt Return Success Rate	52
Kick Return Success Rate	98
Punt Success Rate	67
Kickoff Success Rate	68

9. Not great, but not terrible

Though the kick return game was lacking, ECU seemed to otherwise have a solid, if unspectacular, special teams unit. Quay Johnson was solid in punt returns, Davis Plowman was nearly automatic inside of 40 yards (and pretty strong outside of it), and Worth Gregory's punts were rarely returnable. Kick coverage was occasionally sketchy, but you can work with this unit, especially if Johnson's punt return proficiency begins to match his work on kickoffs.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
3-Sep	Western Carolina	NR	23.0	91%
10-Sep	N.C. State	40	-3.9	41%
17-Sep	at South Carolina	63	-6.4	36%
24-Sep	at Virginia Tech	32	-12.9	23%
1-Oct	Central Florida	99	10.4	73%
8-Oct	at South Florida	41	-10.8	27%
13-Oct	Navy	66	1.0	52%
22-Oct	at Cincinnati	70	-5.0	39%
29-Oct	Connecticut	81	5.5	62%
5-Nov	at Tulsa	93	1.4	53%
12-Nov	SMU	98	10.1	72%
26-Nov	at Temple	61	-6.8	35%
Projected wins: 6.0

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-5.4% (72)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	73 / 75
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	-3 / -1.5
2015 TO Luck/Game	-0.6
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	73% (85%, 60%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	5.9 (-0.9)

10. This could go in so many different ways

In a way, ECU fired Ruffin not only because of a frustrating 2015, but because even his good seasons might not have been good enough. To say the least, this puts a lot of pressure on Montgomery out of the gates.

Montgomery inherits a roster deep with juniors and seniors but not with play-makers outside of perhaps the receiver and safety positions. (It is also lacking in the "warm bodies" department at the most important position on the field.) Will new coaching blood, mixed with lots of juniors and seniors, provide a breakthrough?

Random or not, a lot of that will be determined by close-game performance. Close wins carried McNeill early in his tenure, and close losses doomed him later on, and considering ECU has between a 35 and 62 percent chance of winning in seven of 12 games this year (with three likely wins and two likely losses), performance in these tight spaces could send the narrative of this season in a lot of different directions.

McNeill's dismissal may have been frustrating on a personal level, but it signified ECU's ambition in an increasingly ambitious conference.