Cincinnati and Tommy Tuberville are always wild cards. 2016's a whole new level.

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year's team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year's roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

1. A mulligan year

Cincy enters 2015 with reason for severe optimism. If you're looking for reasons to set high expectations, you've got them. Of course, good or bad, it's rarely a smart idea to set expectations for a Tommy Tuberville team. Regardless, the Bearcats should be fun as hell on offense, so even if they don't live up to the expectations I am setting (despite the fact that I know better), the entertainment factor should be high.

-- The 2015 Cincinnati guide

You can poke fun at me for even briefly entertaining the notion that a Tuberville team could be a safe bet. You can use hindsight to point out the team I called maybe the best in the AAC had nothing close to the ceiling of others like Houston and Temple. But you cannot say Cincy wasn't entertaining.

Never mind 2015 as a whole: The Bearcats defied expectations from game to game and quarter to quarter. They scored 46 in a loss and 19 in a win. They stayed within a touchdown of Temple, Memphis, and Houston and lost by a combined 73 to USF and San Diego State. They scored at least 34 points seven times and allowed at least 33 eight times.

They also dealt with as much bad luck as any team in the country. They lost their star quarterback to a pretty nasty head injury for a bit, then lost him again before the bowl game. The secondary once again got hit hard enough by injury to tinker with receivers on the DB depth chart.

And to top it off, Cincinnati dealt with by far the worst turnovers luck in the country. The Bearcats recovered only 37 percent of fumbles, and considering typical INT-to-PBU ratios, they threw about seven more interceptions than expected while reeling in about three fewer. Using national averages, their turnover margin should have been around minus-6. It was minus-13. In a season that featured three one-possession losses.

None of this excuses the bowl performance, by the way. Playing without their quarterback and wrapping up a disappointing seven-win season, Cincinnati went to the Hawaii Bowl against an excellent SDSU, found itself down 14-0 six minutes in, and never threatened to crawl back, falling down 42-0 before finally reaching SDSU's redzone.

While the team was preparing to get shellacked on the islands, the coaching staff was getting raided. Cincy lost offensive coordinator Eddie Gran, QBs coach Darin Hinshaw, and defensive co-coordinator Steve Clinkscale to Kentucky, a team that was even more lifeless. Plus, OL coach Darren Hiller went to USF.

If injuries and bounces actually break Cincinnati's way a bit, and if the new staff hires bring a jolt of life, then the team has enough returning experience to become an interesting threat. Kiel will be working with a completely different receiving corps (to go with the new coordinator), and an absolutely wretched run defense will have to improve at least a little bit.

But with the bounces that went against UC in 2015, the rough-draft talent that will show up in uniform in 2016, and the massive number of tossup games that the Bearcats will play this fall, this might be the single biggest wildcard team in the country.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 7-6 | Adj. Record: 7-6 | Final F/+ Rk: 72 | Final S&P+ Rk: 74
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
5-Sep	Alabama A&M	N/A	52-10	W	73%	100%	+12.0
12-Sep	Temple	45	26-34	L	38%	23%	-12.6	-15.0
19-Sep	at Miami-OH	113	37-33	W	28%	42%	-12.0	-15.0
24-Sep	at Memphis	41	46-53	L	55%	55%	+1.6	+3.0
1-Oct	Miami-FL	62	34-23	W	64%	78%	+27.2	+17.5
16-Oct	at BYU	35	24-38	L	10%	0%	+5.6	-7.5
24-Oct	Connecticut	80	37-13	W	87%	100%	+16.7	+11.5
31-Oct	Central Florida	128	52-7	W	92%	100%	+23.2	+17.5
7-Nov	at Houston	26	30-33	L	77%	85%	+8.7	+5.0
14-Nov	Tulsa	95	49-38	W	68%	92%	-1.4	-6.5
20-Nov	at South Florida	44	27-65	L	3%	0%	-35.1	-40.5
28-Nov	at East Carolina	73	19-16	W	36%	32%	+6.0	+4.0
24-Dec	vs. San Diego State	43	7-42	L	20%	1%	-29.0	-34.0

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	32.8	42	33.4	98
Points Per Game	33.8	38	31.2	91

2. Running out of steam

Cincinnati actually looked the part for a little while. After beginning the season with gut-wrenching losses to Temple and Memphis and a near-disaster against Miami (Ohio), then losing Kiel for a couple of weeks, the Bearcats were a mid-October wrecking crew. They beat UConn and UCF by a combined 89-20, suffered one of the least likely losses of the college football season against Houston -- it is almost impossible to outgain an opponent, 8.5 to 4.9, on a per-play basis and lose, but the Bearcats found a way -- and then gunned their way past Tulsa.

The Tulsa win, however, basically marked the end of the season. The offense slumped, and the defense gave out after that.

• Average Percentile Performance (first 6 games): 45% (~top 70) | Record: 3-3 | Yards per play: UC 6.4, Opp 6.1
• Average Percentile Performance (next 4 games): 81% (~top 25) | Record: 3-1 | Yards per play: UC 8.3, Opp 5.1
• Average Percentile Performance (last 3 games): 20% (~top 100) | Record: 1-2 | Yards per play: Opp 6.2, UC 4.8

The USF loss was beyond humbling. The Bearcats stumbled into an ambush, falling behind 20-0 after eight minutes, 34-0 after 16, and 51-3 at halftime. Kiel entered the game smoking hot but went 8-for-15 with two picks and took a seat on the bench. And after a rather lucky win over USF came the almost-as-embarrassing bowl defeat.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.25	72	IsoPPP+	114.9	27
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	48.2%	12	Succ. Rt. +	116.4	13
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	30.3	76	Def. FP+	30.3	83
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.3	79	Redzone S&P+	113.5	27
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	24.3		ACTUAL	33	+8.7

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	6	20	13	27
RUSHING	57	51	18	81
PASSING	6	23	19	30
Standard Downs		22	14	29
Passing Downs		25	28	29

Q1 Rk	32	1st Down Rk	18
Q2 Rk	9	2nd Down Rk	36
Q3 Rk	50	3rd Down Rk	23
Q4 Rk	3

3. A Zac Taylor offense

Kiel's season was pretty dramatic, from the moments of absurd upside to the scary head injury to his brief disappearance (he missed the bowl due to "family issues"). But if you look purely at his full-season numbers, 2015 seems like it was a success. In just 10 games, Kiel threw for nearly 2,800 yards, completed almost two-thirds of his passes, and averaged a robust 8.5 yards per pass attempt (including sacks). His completion rate went up, his sack rate went down, and he produced more big plays.

We'll see how any of this changes with a new receiving corps and a new offensive coordinator. Tuberville replaced Gran with former Miami Dolphins coordinator (and Nebraska quarterback) Zac Taylor.

Taylor was the device with which Bill Callahan attempted to shift Nebraska's offense to a West Coast attack. In two years in Lincoln, he threw for 5,800 yards, 45 touchdowns, and 20 interceptions, and he's quickly risen in the coaching ranks. In 2011, he was a Texas A&M graduate assistant, but within two years he was Miami's quarterbacks coach, then took over play-calling two years later.

Taylor will bring to UC a no-huddle attack -- familiar territory for his personnel -- that likely focuses a bit more on the run than Cincy's 2015 attack did. This is because of both philosophy and necessity.

When he was introduced to the press, he said, "One of the things I believe about turnovers is we’ll protect the quarterback. I don’t want to drop back 40 times a game. There’s other ways to get the throws. We’ll be under center, do some play action, some screens, help take the pressure off the line and the quarterbacks. That all starts with a great run game as well."

Beyond philosophy, however, is the simple fact that UC returns a couple of exciting running backs, a solid offensive line, and a bunch of new faces in the receiving corps.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Gunner Kiel	6'4, 215	Sr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9869	206	316	2777	19	11	65.2%	8	2.5%	8.5
Hayden Moore	6'3, 203	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8229	133	225	1885	9	11	59.1%	17	7.0%	7.4
Luke Wright					1	3	16	0	0	33.3%	1	25.0%	3.8
Ross Trail	6'3, 209	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8697
Jake Sopko	6'2, 210	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7977

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Tion Green	RB	6'0, 230	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8590	151	729	8	4.8	3.9	41.7%	2	2
Hosey Williams	RB					138	777	4	5.6	4.9	40.6%	1	1
Mike Boone	RB	5'10, 201	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7893	104	749	9	7.2	7.5	45.2%	1	1
Hayden Moore	QB	6'3, 203	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8229	39	121	2	3.1	3.9	28.2%	8	4
Gunner Kiel	QB	6'4, 215	Sr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9869	24	64	2	2.7	2.4	29.2%	4	3
Chad Banschbach	RB	5'9, 200	Jr.	NR	NR	19	72	0	3.8	3.0	36.8%	0	0
Deionte Buckley	RB	5'9, 208	Jr.	NR	NR
Joshuwa Holloman	RB	5'11, 188	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8497
Taylor Boose	RB	6'0, 200	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8404
Gerrid Doaks	RB	5'11, 203	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8456

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Shaq Washington	WR					128	90	982	70.3%	24.6%	7.7	59.4%	59.4%	1.18
Chris Moore	WR					70	41	905	58.6%	13.5%	12.9	67.1%	57.1%	2.09
Max Morrison	WR					70	52	617	74.3%	13.5%	8.8	67.1%	61.4%	1.30
Alex Chisum	WR					60	38	475	63.3%	11.5%	7.9	60.0%	46.7%	1.52
Mekale McKay	WR					53	27	507	50.9%	10.2%	9.6	62.3%	49.1%	1.76
Johnny Holton	WR					29	17	461	58.6%	5.6%	15.9	79.3%	55.2%	2.84
Nate Cole	WR	6'1, 202	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8565	26	19	262	73.1%	5.0%	10.1	53.8%	61.5%	1.46
Mike Boone	RB	5'10, 201	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7893	19	15	108	78.9%	3.7%	5.7	42.1%	31.6%	1.60
DJ Dowdy	TE	6'4, 248	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8484	18	12	104	66.7%	3.5%	5.8	66.7%	33.3%	1.64
Tion Green	RB	6'0, 230	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8590	15	13	101	86.7%	2.9%	6.7	53.3%	40.0%	1.46
Tshumbi Johnson	WR	5'11, 183	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8522	11	4	64	36.4%	2.1%	5.8	45.5%	18.2%	2.78
Hosey Williams	RB					9	6	37	66.7%	1.7%	4.1	33.3%	33.3%	0.97
Kahlil Lewis	WR	6'0, 197	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8529	6	3	53	50.0%	1.2%	8.8	66.7%	50.0%	1.61
Tyler Cogswell	TE	6'5, 254	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8475	5	4	22	80.0%	1.0%	4.4	100.0%	80.0%	0.58
Jamil Kamara (Virginia)	WR	6'2, 210	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9377
Avery Peterson (LSU)	WR	6'2, 200	So.	NR	0.9130
Devin Gray	WR	6'0, 181	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8115
Tyrin Summers	WR	5'9, 161	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8104
Malick Mbodj	WR	6'4, 188	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8435
Jerron Rollins	WR	6'2, 175	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8260
Doug Bates	WR	6'4, 230	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8267
Thomas Geddis	WR	6'1, 160	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8032
Marcel Paul	WR	6'1, 187	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8026

4. A total rebuild

First things first: There's upside here. "Leading" returning receiver Nate Cole has had a 76 percent catch rate over the last two years and averaged a healthy 13.8 yards per catch in 2015. Running backs Mike Boone and Tion Green are solid out of the backfield. Tight ends DJ Dowdy and Tyler Cogswell and receivers Tshumbi Johnson and Kahlil Lewis were all mid-three-star recruits. Incoming transfers Jamil Kamara (Virginia) and Avery Peterson (LSU) were both four-stars per the 247Sports Composite. And again per 247, Tuberville just signed six more three-star wideouts.

Just listing ingredients, this year's receiving corps might be more impressive than last year's. One problem: Continuity in the passing game means the world, and even while ignoring QB injuries (of which Kiel has had plenty), UC has almost no continuity whatsoever. The top six receivers from last year are all gone. Johnson is the second-leading returning wideout and had all of four catches last year. Cole and a lot of others have upside, but potential alone doesn't account for losing six guys who provided 410 targets, 265 catches, and 3,947 receiving yards.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	100.9	3.09	1.92	40.1%	74.5%	16.5%	126.9	3.3%	6.8%
Rank	69	33	127	50	25	24	36	30	54

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Parker Ehinger	LT					13	51	2015 1st All-AAC
Deyshawn Bond	C	6'1, 291	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8231	12	35	2015 2nd All-AAC
Ryan Leahy	RG	6'6, 292	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8438	13	16	2015 2nd All-AAC
Justin Murray	RT					13	25
Idarius Ray	LG	6'6, 312	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7783	9	9
Chad West	RT					3	3
Delonte Murray	RG	6'5, 334	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7867	1	1
David Niehaus	C	6'1, 295	Jr.	NR	NR	1	1
Korey Cunningham	RT	6'6, 305	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8148	0	0
Garrett Campbell	RG	6'6, 312	Jr.	NR	NR	0	0
Ryan Stout	LT	6'6, 285	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8017	0	0
Evan Mallory	LG	6'5, 318	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8463
Tyler McGarr	OL	6'4, 284	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8054
Reed Armagost	LT	6'7, 230	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7790
Morgan James	RT	6'6, 290	RSFr.	NR	NR
Kendall Calhoun	OL	6'7, 290	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8070
Zach Bycznski	OL	6'5, 290	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8242

5. The line should be fine

A renewed focus on the run game could pay off as Kiel (plus Hayden Moore and whoever else spells Kiel if/when he gets injured again) gets to know the new receiving corps. While both tackles are gone up front, and you never know how a new offensive line coach will fare, two all-conference interior guys (Deyshawn Bond, Ryan Leahy) return. The Cincy line kept defenders out of the backfield for the most part, and while Tion Green occasionally took advantage, Mike Boone frequently did. Boone struggled down the stretch like everybody else, but through 10 games he was averaging 8.8 yards per carry. This duo should have a nice year.

Tackles gone ... six receivers gone ... injury-prone QB ... the universe is telling Tommy Tuberville to run the ball more. He will probably listen.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.33	98	IsoPPP+	91.0	97
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	40.9%	63	Succ. Rt. +	91.8	96
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	26.8	120	Off. FP+	26.1	122
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.4	63	Redzone S&P+	90.5	106
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	18.6		ACTUAL	14.0	-4.6

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	78	93	96	97
RUSHING	92	119	115	115
PASSING	57	74	65	75
Standard Downs		112	112	113
Passing Downs		64	58	75

Q1 Rk	101	1st Down Rk	93
Q2 Rk	92	2nd Down Rk	107
Q3 Rk	78	3rd Down Rk	81
Q4 Rk	106

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	78.5	3.14	3.60	41.3%	60.5%	15.2%	50.8	2.0%	4.8%
Rank	128	99	104	99	31	114	127	124	109

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Silverberry Mouhon	DE					13	32.5	4.5%	8.0	4.5	0	0	0	0
Alex Pace	DT	6'2, 295	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8478	13	21.5	3.0%	4.5	0.0	0	1	1	0
Cortez Broughton	DT	6'2, 297	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7533	12	20.0	2.8%	1.5	0.0	0	2	0	0
Mark Wilson	DE	6'3, 246	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7966	12	16.0	2.2%	5.5	2.0	0	0	0	0
Kevin Mouhon	DE	6'1, 242	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8784	10	15.0	2.1%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Sione Tongamoa	DT	6'1, 287	Sr.	NR	NR	12	14.5	2.0%	3.5	3.0	0	0	0	0
Chris Burton	DT	6'2, 290	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8131	11	14.0	2.0%	2.0	0.5	0	0	0	0
Kimoni Fitz	DE	6'3, 243	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8135	11	11.5	1.6%	1.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Marquise Copeland	DT	6'3, 260	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8519	10	10.5	1.5%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Lyndon Johnson	DT	6'6, 277	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7694	12	6.5	0.9%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Landon Brazile	DE	6'5, 238	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8032	6	4.5	0.6%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Norman Oglesby	DT	5'11, 265	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8220	3	2.0	0.3%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Keith Minor	DT	6'4, 271	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7685	2	1.5	0.2%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Hakeem Allonce	DT	6'4, 309	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8454
Bryan Wright	DE	6'3, 238	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8228
Caleb Ashworth	DE	6'3, 238	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8066
Michael Pitts	DE	6'3, 232	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8098
Elijah Ponder	DE	6'3, 225	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7961

6. Absolutely, positively, ridiculously, absurdly dreadful against the run

For most of two decades, as defensive coordinator at Miami and Texas A&M and head coach at Ole Miss and Auburn, Tuberville was one of the most consistent defensive coaches in the country. But over the past six seasons, as he has attempted to adapt both his offense and defense to spready-happy college football, the D has grown inconsistent.

Despite injury, Cincinnati still managed a No. 52 ranking in Def. S&P+ in 2014, but the Bearcats plummeted to 98th in 2015.

It might not have been an awful time for some new blood at coordinator, but Tuberville brought in a new DBs coach (former Colts assistant Mike Gillhamer) and promoted linebackers coach Jeff Koonz to co-coordinator with line coach Robert Prunty.

Prunty will continue to wear three hats -- co-coordinator, DL coach, associate head coach -- but the second of the three might occupy a lot of his time this year, as he and Koonz will have to fix what was one of the FBS' worst run defenses.

Cincinnati got a decent push in short-yardage situations but was outright pathetic in most other regards. The Bearcats ranked 128th in Adj. Line Yards, 119th in Rushing S&P+, 114th in stuff rate, and 127th in Adj. Sack Rate. They had absolutely no disruptive presence up front, and the closest thing to a disruptor (end Silverberry Mouhon) is now gone.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Eric Wilson	WLB	6'2, 219	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8438	13	78.5	10.9%	3.5	0.0	0	2	1	1
Bryce Jenkinson	MLB	6'1, 235	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8361	13	44.5	6.2%	3.0	1.0	1	1	1	0
Kevin Brown	WLB					13	42.0	5.9%	1.0	0.0	1	2	0	0
Jaylyin Minor	WLB	6'1, 241	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7744	11	26.5	3.7%	2.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
Antonio Kinard	MLB	6'4, 220	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8364	11	5.0	0.7%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kevin Hyland	LB					13	3.5	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Franklin Bruscianelli	LB	6'0, 234	Sr.	NR	NR	3	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Mason Antoun	LB					9	1.5	0.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Matthew Draper	LB	6'2, 214	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8488
Joel Dublanko	LB	6'3, 227	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8696
Tyquan Statham	OLB	6'0, 214	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8584
Ty Sponseller	LB	6'3, 195	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8304

7. Experience, at least

Inexperience wasn't the only issue for this feckless front seven, but it was AN issue. Six of the top eight linemen were either freshmen or sophomores, as were two of the four primary linebackers. Combine that with awful continuity -- 10-11 linemen saw a decent amount of action, and only two played in all 13 games -- and you do have a couple of issues that could be rectified in 2016. With reasonable health, the competition should be strong at both end (Mark Wilson, Kevin Mouhon, Kimoni Fitz, Landon Brazile, Bryan Wright, and Caleb Ashworth) and tackle (Alex Pace, Cortez Broughton, Sione Tongamoa, Chris Burton, Marquise Copeland, Lyndon Johnson, Norman Oglesby, Hakeem Allonce). Pure quantity suggests that quality might be alright with continuity.

It's the same story at linebacker. Between seniors Eric Wilson and Antonio Kinard, junior Jaylyin Minor, sophomore Bryce Jenkinson, and redshirt freshman Matthew Draper, it's possible some reliable options emerge. It's also possible a ton of guys get hurt or fail to develop.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Zach Edwards	S	6'1, 200	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8175	13	78.0	10.9%	4.5	0	3	8	1	0
Grant Coleman (2014)	CB	6'0, 171	Sr.	NR	NR	13	45.5	5.9%	1	0	0	2	1	0
Tyrell Gilbert	S	6'1, 195	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7893	13	36.5	5.1%	1	0	1	6	0	0
Leviticus Payne	NB					12	35.5	5.0%	3.5	0	0	3	1	1
Linden Stephens	CB	6'0, 180	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8014	13	31.0	4.3%	1	0	2	1	1	0
Carter Jacobs	S	6'1, 196	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7806	13	27.0	3.8%	0	0	0	0	1	0
Mike Tyson	NB	6'2, 206	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7983	11	26.5	3.7%	2	0	0	4	0	0
Malik Clements	S	6'0, 193	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8395	13	17.0	2.4%	0.5	0	0	0	0	1
Alex Thomas	CB	6'1, 170	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7826	9	16.5	2.3%	1	0	0	1	0	0
Andre Jones	S	6'1, 210	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8369	9	15.5	2.2%	1	0	1	1	0	0
JJ Pinckney	CB	6'3, 188	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8447	11	13.0	1.8%	0	0	0	4	0	0
Jarred Evans	CB					12	8.0	1.1%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Adrian Witty	CB					4	6.0	0.8%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Bobby Brown	CB	6'0, 205	Jr.	NR	NR	4	3.5	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Tshumbi Johnson	CB	5'11, 183	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8522	10	3.0	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Davon Witherspoon	CB	6'3, 201	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7000	4	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Chris Murphy	NB	5'11, 189	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8593
Sheldon Doss	S	6'1, 197	RSFr.	NR	NR
Eric Jenkins	DB	5'10, 185	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8407
Davin Pierce	S	6'2, 175	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8056
James Wiggins	DB	5'11, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8512
Marquis Smith	CB	5'10, 169	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8284
Perry Young	NB	5'10, 197	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8018

8. A healthy secondary is a loaded secondary

For the second straight year, I am proclaiming that if the secondary can remain healthy, it should be alright. Even with WRs showing up on the two-deep, it was still more reliable than the front seven. And with safeties Zach Edwards, Tyrell Gilbert, and Mike Tyson back and corner Grant Coleman rejoining the mix after missing most of the year with injury, Cincy should be able to top last year's No. 74 Passing S&P+ rating. Now just imagine what could happen if the pass rush actually exists.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Sam Geraci	6'4, 222	Jr.	44	46.3	5	10	14	54.5%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Andrew Gantz	5'9, 170	Jr.	85	62.8	31	3	36.5%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Andrew Gantz	5'9, 170	Jr.	49-50	14-16	87.5%	7-11	63.6%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Mike Boone	KR	5'10, 201	Jr.	17	16.4	0
Johnny Holton	KR			10	22.0	0
Shaq Washington	PR			13	10.3	0
Max Morrison	PR			2	3.5	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	31
Field Goal Efficiency	35
Punt Return Success Rate	73
Kick Return Success Rate	63
Punt Success Rate	61
Kickoff Success Rate	80

9. Special teams should be a strength again

Cincinnati had a legitimate special teams strength last year in place-kicker Andrew Gantz, but more importantly, the Bearcats had no particular weaknesses. Special teams is often about the margins -- the particularly good or bad pieces -- and Cincinnati lived well inside of those margins. And if punt coverage gets a little better, then the Bearcats could have another legitimate strength in strong-legged Sam Geraci. He averaged 46 yards per kick last year, but punt efficiency ranked only 61st because of returns.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
1-Sep	UT-Martin	NR	24.5	92%
10-Sep	at Purdue	88	1.0	52%
15-Sep	Houston	53	0.5	51%
24-Sep	Miami (Ohio)	107	15.7	82%
1-Oct	South Florida	41	-2.3	45%
8-Oct	at Connecticut	81	0.0	50%
22-Oct	East Carolina	78	5.0	61%
29-Oct	at Temple	61	-5.3	38%
5-Nov	BYU	35	-3.4	42%
12-Nov	at Central Florida	99	4.9	61%
18-Nov	Memphis	77	4.9	61%
25-Nov	at Tulsa	93	2.9	57%
Projected wins: 6.9

Five-Year F/+ Rk	7.6% (50)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	70 / 64
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	-19 / -5.7
2015 TO Luck/Game	-5.1
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	69% (55%, 82%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	7.1 (-0.1)

10. I have absolutely no idea

Cincinnati's receiving corps is brand new, its quarterback has gotten hurt a lot, and its defensive front seven was awful last year. If you're looking for reasons to think that the best is in the past for Tuberville at UC, those are three good places to start.

On the flipside, Kiel is awesome when healthy and has at least one intriguing backup (Moore) when he's not. The running game should be sound, the receiving corps should be athletic (if almost certainly inconsistent), and the secondary could be great. And while a Tuberville season almost never goes as planned, in a vacuum it appears that luck will probably turn around a bit, too.

You can see whatever you want to see with UC this year, and that's before we get to talking about an amazing schedule. Cincy has a 92 percent chance of beating UT-Martin in the opener and has an 82 percent chance of beating Miami (Ohio). The other 10 games are all between 38 and 61 percent.

Ten tossups! For a Tommy Tuberville team! That is an invitation to insanity. If the potential weaknesses are a little less weak than we think, then the Bearcats could legitimately go 10-2 or 11-1 this year. But if the passing game never takes and the front seven is still too leaky, 3-9 is on the table.

This might be the biggest wildcard team that a wildcard extraordinaire has ever had. I have no idea what is going to happen, and I cannot wait to find out.