If a new CFB coach pulls a big turnaround, it's probably by year 3. Is it EMU's time?

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1. Third-year hope

If something big is going to happen, the odds are good that it will have happened by the end of a head coach's third year on the job.

Since 2006, 46 teams have improved by at least 14 adjusted points per game (per S&P+) from one year to the next. That's about four to five big leaps per season for the entire country. From this group of 46, 36 were led by coaches that were either in their first (10), second (13), or third (13) years.

There have been some stragglers -- Gary Andersen (Utah State), Dana Holgorsen (West Virginia), Kevin Sumlin (Houston), and Rich Brooks (Kentucky) all saw significant improvement in their fourth years, and Joey Jones broke through in his fifth at startup South Alabama. The rest are made up of late-career bounceback efforts: Air Force under Troy Calhoun in 2014, TCU under Gary Patterson in 2014, etc.

By your third year on the job, the program is mostly yours. Sure, there are some fourth- or fifth-year guys who were recruited by your predecessor, but the depth chart is mostly filled with guys you signed. Plus, you've got the lay of the land by now -- you've got a decent read on your conference foes, you know which boosters you have to most obsessively placate, etc.

Quite often, we don't see third-year magic coming. It can be pretty random.

• In 2015, USF's Willie Taggart looked like his third year might be his last until his Bulls dominated in the second half of the season; they ended up improving by 20.2 adjusted points per game.
• In 2012, Mike MacIntyre's San Jose State, having already improved from 1-12 to 5-7 in his second year, exploded to 11-2 and 18.6 adjusted PPG higher than the previous year.
• In 2006 under Mark Dantonio, Cincinnati improved by 17.9 points and ranked 17th in S&P+.
• In 2014 under Hugh Freeze, Ole Miss improved by 16.1 points and played elite ball for about two-thirds of the season.
• Dan McCarney at North Texas ... Ron Zook at Illinois ... Dave Clawson at Bowling Green ... Tim Beckman at Toledo ... all saw significant breakthroughs when only marginal improvement was expected.

The reason I bring this up in an Eastern Michigan preview should be pretty obvious: Chris Creighton is beginning his third year in Ypsilanti. EMU has long been one of the more hopeless programs in FBS; even in a conference loaded with parity and potential upward (or downward) movement, the Eagles have consistently struggled. They haven't finished above .500 since 1995, and they've only really come close once (6-6 in 2011 with two wins over FCS opponents; and yes, this happened in Ron English's *third* season on the job). They haven't been to a bowl since 1987.

From a 20,000-foot view, the reasons are unclear. EMU's revenue isn't any better or worse than the rest of the MAC -- in fact, in USA Today's most recent totals, EMU's $30.1 million revenue was third in the MAC (as proof of the MAC's parity, EMU is within $2.7 million of first-place Akron and $3.1 million of eighth-place NIU). And while the Eagles' facilities aren't amazing, they appear at first glance to be competitive.

EMU's issues seem to boil down to hires and intangibles -- a "winning culture," if you will. A school like NIU has it.

Creighton has thrived at little schools with minimal history. He twice reached the NAIA playoffs in four years at Ottawa (1997-2000) and reached the Division III playoffs three times at Wabash (2001-07). Six seasons at Drake, in the FCS' Pioneer League, produced six winning records and shares of two conference titles.

That EMU would be attracted to a guy with a 139-46 record at overlooked Midwestern schools made sense. But that doesn't mean it will work out. And through two years, it hasn't. Creighton came to Ypsilanti having never finished below .500 in 17 years as a head coach; he's 3-21 so far. His team took a step forward in 2015, but only on paper, and only on one side of the ball. The Eagles fell from 2-10 to 1-11 but improved from 128th in S&P+ to 121st thanks to an offense that showed viable progress. (The defense, meanwhile, was the worst in FBS.)

There might be hope, though. If experience and depth are keys to the third-year jump, EMU will have a lot. The Eagles return their starting quarterback, an explosive sophomore running back, four of their top six receiving targets, and every offensive lineman, and they are loaded with juniors and seniors at every level of the defense.

Experience doesn't perfectly equate with talent, but it is a prerequisite for a leap.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 1-11 | Adj. Record: 1-11 | Final F/+ Rk: 122 | Final S&P+ Rk: 121
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
5-Sep	Old Dominion	117	34-38	L	28%	39%	+4.6	+0.5
12-Sep	at Wyoming	115	48-29	W	72%	99%	+34.2	+32.5
19-Sep	Ball State	110	17-28	L	19%	25%	+4.5	-5.0
26-Sep	Army	108	36-58	L	27%	38%	-21.8	-25.0
3-Oct	at LSU	10	22-44	L	21%	4%	+22.0	+22.5
10-Oct	Akron	84	21-47	L	10%	1%	-24.0	-18.5
17-Oct	at Toledo	20	20-63	L	15%	1%	-14.9	-14.0
24-Oct	at Northern Illinois	66	21-49	L	8%	0%	-11.7	0.0
29-Oct	Western Michigan	51	28-58	L	9%	0%	-23.7	-10.0
7-Nov	at Miami-OH	113	13-28	L	2%	0%	-18.9	-10.0
14-Nov	Massachusetts	100	17-28	L	9%	2%	-5.1	-4.0
27-Nov	at Central Michigan	67	28-35	L	13%	2%	+15.6	+17.0

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	24.4	95	42.8	128
Points Per Game	25.4	91	42.1	123

2. Iffy, then awful

A lack of depth catches up to you, especially when you suffer a few perfectly-placed injuries. EMU was able to survive an injury to starting quarterback Reginald Bell in the season opener thanks to the presence of former four-star signee Brogan Roback. But inexperience on offense and key injuries on defense were too much to overcome.

An already undermanned defensive front cratered when tackle Pat O'Connor and end Jeremiah Harris went down. And only three of 13 regulars in the front seven played in all 12 games. The secondary was technically more stable but still lost starting safety Ikie Calderon two games into the season and leaned heavily on sophomores.

This team wasn't ready to play at a high level no matter what, but as opponents adjusted to the offense and the defense dipped further into the second string, the effects on the product were obvious.

• First 5 games:
  Average percentile performance: 33% (~top 85) | Performance vs. S&P+ projection: +8.7 PPG | Yards per play: Opp 6.6, EMU 6.1 (-0.5)
• Last 7 games:
  Average percentile performance: 9% (~top 115) | Performance vs. S&P+ projection: -5.6 PPG | Yards per play: Opp 7.4, EMU 5.1 (-2.3)

EMU hinted at bowl-level potential early on, with a dominant win over Wyoming and a competitive showing in Baton Rouge (the Eagles trailed just 30-22 heading into the fourth quarter). But home losses to ODU, Ball State, and Army still established EMU's place near the bottom of the FBS totem pole. And after the LSU game, things fell apart quickly; EMU lost its final seven games by an average of 23 points each.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.24	74	IsoPPP+	97.6	81
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	40.5%	79	Succ. Rt. +	94.2	96
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	31.1	97	Def. FP+	33.5	117
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.3	85	Redzone S&P+	96.8	90
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	18.8		ACTUAL	25	+6.2

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	78	87	96	81
RUSHING	85	48	90	25
PASSING	66	101	99	105
Standard Downs		78	90	67
Passing Downs		91	96	88

Q1 Rk	101	1st Down Rk	80
Q2 Rk	44	2nd Down Rk	114
Q3 Rk	89	3rd Down Rk	48
Q4 Rk	80

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Brogan Roback	6'3, 207	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8663	211	346	2304	16	11	61.0%	12	3.4%	6.2
Reginald Bell					35	59	318	2	3	59.3%	12	16.9%	3.5
James Pensyl	6'6, 231	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7995
Todd Porter	6'3, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7633
Isaac Stiebeling	6'4, 195	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7633

3. Brogan had his moments

In Reggie Bell, EMU appeared to have a quarterback capable of justifying hope. As a freshman, he averaged 6.5 yards per non-sack carry and 7.1 yards per pass attempt; granted, he fumbled too much, took too many sacks, and threw too many interceptions, but he was a freshman and a dynamic one at that.

Bell had completed 12 of 18 passes with a 146.8 passer rating and 58 rushing yards against Old Dominion when he got hurt. He missed the next five games, and in his absence, Brogan Roback took charge. He was 17-for-24 for 330 yards and three touchdowns against Wyoming, and he completed at least 67 percent of his passes in five of his first seven games. He was good enough to remind you of his potential, but he was still an inconsistent sophomore -- his passer rating topped 140 four times and dipped below 100 four times.

When Bell returned, EMU attempted a juggling act between the two quarterbacks, but it didn't work incredibly well. Bell's instinctive mobility disappeared, and Roback had fewer opportunities to find a rhythm.

Bell elected to transfer in December, which means this is Roback's team now. That could mean very good things; his quick passing ability could give EMU a desperately needed efficiency boost. And he should still get a little bit of competition from athletic former WKU and Garden City CC quarterback Todd Porter. He'll also have an experienced offensive line protecting him.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Darius Jackson	RB					208	1078	14	5.2	6.5	35.1%	2	1
Shaq Vann	RB	5'10, 210	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8059	100	586	5	5.9	7.9	39.0%	1	1
Brogan Roback	QB	6'3, 207	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8663	39	145	1	3.7	3.7	41.0%	4	2
Reginald Bell	QB					27	188	0	7.0	5.4	55.6%	3	2
Eddie Daugherty	WR	5'9, 159	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7500	6	7	0	1.2	2.1	50.0%	2	1
Blake Banham	RB	5'10, 180	So.	NR	NR	4	27	0	6.8	2.2	75.0%	0	0
Juwan Lewis	RB					4	20	0	5.0	2.0	50.0%	0	0
Breck Turner	RB	6'1, 199	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8299
Lavonte Robinson	FB	5'8, 246	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8056

4. A big-play running game

EMU couldn't efficiency or consistency from either the run or the pass, but the Eagles did produce quite a few explosive rushes. Their 20 rushes of 20-plus yards ranked 51st in FBS, their six 40-plusses ranked 38th. Thousand-yard rusher Darius Jackson was one reason for that, but for the season, Shaq Vann hinted both at more efficiency (39 percent of his carries gained at least five yards, compared to Jackson's 35 percent) and explosiveness. He carried at least four times in every game and averaged at least 5.8 yards per carry seven times.

Vann could be ready for a lovely season, and 2015 star recruit Breck Turner, a three-time scout team player of the week last fall, could be ready to fill Vann's spot on the second string. The depth here is minimal, but if Vann and Turner both stay healthy, this could be one of the better 1-2 punches in the MAC. And if it isn't in 2016, it could be in 2017 or 2018.

Vann and Turner could have a solid line for the foreseeable future. EMU got a good push in short-yardage situations last year, and while seniors account for 119 of EMU's 123 returning career starts, there is a full second string of sophomores (including three-stars Ka'John Armstrong and Dakota Tallman) who could be ready to take over in 2017.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Dustin Creel	WR-X					67	43	451	64.2%	17.6%	6.7	62.7%	50.7%	1.22
Eddie Daugherty	WR-H	5'7, 159	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7500	56	37	557	66.1%	14.7%	9.9	46.4%	50.0%	1.84
Kris Strange	WR-Z					50	26	273	52.0%	13.1%	5.5	50.0%	38.0%	1.33
Shaq Vann	RB	5'10, 210	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8059	44	37	264	84.1%	11.5%	6.0	61.4%	43.2%	1.23
Cody Tuttle	TE	6'4, 250	Sr.	NR	0.7400	43	33	348	76.7%	11.3%	8.1	48.8%	69.8%	1.04
Sam Browning	TE	6'5, 229	Sr.	NR	NR	37	24	326	64.9%	9.7%	8.8	62.2%	59.5%	1.36
Darius Jackson	RB					34	21	201	61.8%	8.9%	5.9	47.1%	38.2%	1.52
Austin Stone	WR-H	5'11, 195	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7444	18	9	156	50.0%	4.7%	8.7	50.0%	44.4%	0.96
Kevin Davis	WR-X	5'11, 193	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8650	11	6	41	54.5%	2.9%	3.7	36.4%	27.3%	0.91
Blake Banham	RB	5'10, 180	So.	NR	NR	11	6	28	54.5%	2.9%	2.5	54.5%	9.1%	2.15
Izaiah Fuller	WR	6'4, 207	So.	NR	NR	5	3	8	60.0%	1.3%	1.6	60.0%	20.0%	0.73
Aloyis Gray	WR-Z	6'4, 200	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8372	3	3	33	100.0%	0.8%	11.0	66.7%	66.7%	1.43
Lemar Harris	WR	6'2, 189	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8203
Kezio Snelling	WR	6'1, 170	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8248
Isaac Holder	WR	5'11, 165	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8000
Braylin Collins	WR	6'1, 164	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7900
Sam Girodat	TE	6'3, 244	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)	NR

5. Another exciting sophomore

If you're only going to have a limited number of truly exciting players, they might as well be youngsters. Vann and maybe Turner give EMU potential in the backfield, and tiny Eddie Daugherty gives the Eagles an exciting option in the slot. Daugherty combined the efficiency you tend to expect from a slot receiver (66 percent catch rate, 50 percent success rate) with big-play potential -- he averaged 15.1 yards per catch and topped 100 receiving yards three times last year (all when Roback was the primary QB).

Obviously size could prevent Daugherty from being any sort of bell cow for the offense, but if you've got Vann periodically reaching the second level of the offense a decent percentage of the time, and you've got Daugherty showing the ability to take short passes a long way, then you've got the makings of a solid offense.

Daugherty will need help, though. Dustin Creel and Kris Strange, the other two players targeted at least 50 times last year, are gone. And while their production was unimpressive (6.2 yards per target), someone still has to replace them, and no other wideout caught even 10 passes.

Be on the lookout for Austin Stone. He caught only eight passes last year, but a) seven of them came in the last seven games, and b) he averaged 17 yards per catch. He caught a 69-yarder against CMU and a 20-yarder against Toledo. Beyond these two and senior Kevin Davis, EMU might be leaning heavily on unproven youngsters, but if Stone can provide some level of reliability, maybe that's okay.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	96.6	2.64	3.47	39.1%	70.3%	23.9%	85.8	3.7%	8.0%
Rank	86	106	42	63	37	113	84	37	80

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Andrew Wylie	RT	6'6, 311	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7818	12	33
Darien Terrell	RG	6'4, 333	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7696	12	26
Jake Hurcombe	LG	6'2, 285	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7779	11	25
Cole Gardner	LT	6'5, 294	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7678	9	19
Matt Thornton	C	6'4, 305	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7878	12	16
Jeremy Hickey	LT	6'4, 311	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7383	2	2
Ka'John Armstrong	LG	6'4, 282	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8078	2	2
Dakota Tallman	C	6'5, 302	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7867	0	0
Chris Hendricks	RG	6'5, 298	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7383	0	0
Pete Bergman	RT	6'9, 311	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7400	0	0
Jimmy Leatiota	OL	6'3, 290	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7600
Steven Nielsen	OL	6'8, 320	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8133
Jake Donnellon	OL	6'5, 280	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7956

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.34	102	IsoPPP+	81.0	123
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	48.5%	122	Succ. Rt. +	79.1	127
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	29.1	90	Off. FP+	26.3	120
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	5.0	115	Redzone S&P+	84.3	121
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	13.2		ACTUAL	12.0	-1.2

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	123	125	127	123
RUSHING	128	128	128	128
PASSING	33	78	103	70
Standard Downs		124	126	122
Passing Downs		117	123	113

Q1 Rk	107	1st Down Rk	128
Q2 Rk	127	2nd Down Rk	126
Q3 Rk	128	3rd Down Rk	105
Q4 Rk	89

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	82.2	3.41	3.48	47.3%	78.3%	14.7%	107.9	5.9%	6.0%
Rank	127	123	91	127	117	118	48	38	90

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Pat O'Connor (2014)	DT	6'4, 267	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7478	12	45.5	6.6%	14.0	7.5	0	2	2	0
Clay Dawson	DT					12	36.5	5.1%	8.5	5.0	0	1	2	0
Mike Brown	NT	6'2, 288	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	12	35.5	5.0%	4.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Luke Maclean	DE	6'5, 275	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8512	11	34.0	4.7%	10.0	5.0	0	2	0	2
Jeremiah Harris (2014)	DE	6'5, 256	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7511	11	20.5	3.0%	1.5	1.0	0	1	1	0
Kwanii Figueroa	DT				NR	11	15.5	2.2%	1.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
Derrick Dunlap	DE	6'0, 287	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7533	7	6.0	0.8%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Deshai Powell	NT	6'2, 277	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7533	7	5.5	0.8%	1.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Arron Pipkins	NT					2	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Lion King	DE	6'4, 226	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000
Nick Dillon	DT	6'2, 273	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8215
Joe Keels (Nebraska)	DE	6'3, 265	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8790
Justice Williams	DE	6'4, 205	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7983

6. A massive upgrade up front

When your improving offense is dragged down by the worst defense in FBS, your first instinct is probably going to be to change defensive coordinators. Brad McCaslin's approximate 3-3-5 approach didn't work very well, so Creighton called on an old friend.

Neal Neathery was Creighton's defensive coordinator and assistant head coach at Drake in 2008-09 before taking over as the inaugural DC at UTSA under Larry Coker. Utilizing a 4-2-5, he twice dragged the Roadrunners' defense into the top half of FBS -- 61st in Def. S&P+ in 2013 and 59th in 2014 -- before massive turnover led to 2015 regression (103rd).

Going from a three-man line to a four-man line can sometimes create depth issues up front, but thanks to injuries that's not much of a concern. EMU brings back not only two of last year's three starters, but also tackle Pat O'Connor and end Jeremiah Harris, two potential 2015 starters who combined to play just three games last year. Add them to a line that features former Pitt transfer Luke Maclean, takle Mike Brown, and former Nebraska end Joe Keels, and you actually might have something pretty exciting.

Linebacker tended to be a strength for Neathery's UTSA defenses, and thanks to injuries, he'll be choosing from between five or six experienced LBs there. In all, it wouldn't be a surprise if the defensive front showed massive improvement in 2016.

7. The pass rush should be legitimately solid

Maclean did a nice job of filling O'Connor's shoes from a pass-rushing standpoint last year, and thanks mostly to Maclean and since-departed tackle Clay Dawson, EMU ranked in the top 50 in Adj. Sack Rate. That could have been an exciting thing if opponents ever had to pass.

With Maclean and O'Connor both back and Keels moving in, the pass rush should again be a strength, and Neathery might not have to blitz to generate pressure. But once again, the key will be actually forcing opponents to throw.

The run defense was the worst in the country, and while experience should produce improvement, exactly how much is possible in one year? Adding a fourth down lineman should improve EMU's overall size -- O'Connor, Brown, Maclean, Harris, and Keels average a decent 6'4, 270 -- but tackle size still lacks, and only two of the 10 players listed above top 280 pounds.

If EMU can just improve to about 100th or 110th in run defense, the pass defense could become a decent weapon. But that's an "if," not a "when."

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Great Ibe	BUCK					11	97.5	13.6%	10.5	1.5	0	2	3	0
Anthony Zappone	MIKE	6'2, 238	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7718	7	35.0	4.9%	2.0	0.5	0	0	0	0
Kyle Rachwal	MIKE	6'3, 225	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8000	9	34.5	4.8%	6.5	1.0	1	1	1	1
Derric Williams	STUD	6'0, 230	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	12	33.5	4.7%	8.5	2.0	0	0	0	0
Nathan Adams	MIKE	6'1, 227	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7333	10	27.0	3.8%	4.0	2.0	0	1	0	0
Amos Houston	STUD	6'0, 220	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7200	8	12.0	1.7%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jaylen Pickett	BUCK	6'0, 221	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7752	12	5.0	0.7%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Tyler Onda	BUCK	6'0, 222	So.	NR	NR	12	3.0	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jason Beck	WHIP	6'1, 202	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7833	12	65.5	9.1%	0	0	1	0	0	0
Ray Tillman	CB					12	52.0	7.3%	2.5	0	0	5	0	0
Juan Giraldo	S	5'11, 195	Jr.	NR	0.7300	12	51.0	7.1%	1	0	0	3	0	0
Anthony Brown	ROVER	5'11, 203	Sr.	NR	0.7633	11	49.5	6.9%	7.5	1	1	4	1	0
DaQuan Pace	CB	5'10, 165	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7552	12	23.5	3.3%	1	0	0	6	0	0
Ikie Calderon	S	5'9, 176	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7300	2	16.0	2.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jalen Williams	WHIP					12	14.0	2.0%	0.5	0	0	0	0	0
Tim Gordon	S	5'11, 171	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7000	12	9.0	1.3%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Ross Williams	CB	5'11, 167	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7000	11	6.5	0.9%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Devon Russell	ROVER					10	5.5	0.8%	0	0	1	1	0	0
Aaron Abbott	ROVER	6'0, 202	Jr.	NR	NR	11	3.0	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Tyrie Mack	DB					6	2.5	0.3%	0	0	0	0	1	0
Brandon Bossard	S	6'2, 209	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7917
Justin Moody	CB	5'10, 175	So.	NR	NR
Brody Hoying	S	5'11, 199	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8031
Vincent Calhoun	S	5'11, 171	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8067
Jalen Phelps	CB	5'10, 171	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8079
Ohaji Hawkins	CB	6'2, 166	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8041

8. The pass defense should come around first

You know the run defense was bad when you see that EMU ranked 78th in Passing S&P+ and still finished worst in overall defense. But the pass defense should again be solid this year. Despite electing to go with relatively soft coverage (which is what happens when you have to be mindful of the run on all downs), EMU's secondary made some plays last year. Safety Anthony Brown led the way with 7.5 tackles for loss and five passes defensed, and corner DaQuan Pace chipped in with six more PDs.

There could be a cornerback shortage with the loss of Ray Tillman, especially if sophomore Ross Williams isn't ready to take on more playing time. But safety will be a major strength with the return of Brown, Jason Beck, Juan Giraldo, and early-season starter Ikie Calderon. Plus, per the 247Sports Composite, Creighton signed three three-star freshmen to go with three-star redshirt freshman safety Brody Hoying. The EMU secondary appears to have depth that the rest of the EMU roster wishes it could emulate.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Austin Barnes	5'11, 218	Jr.	45	43.6	1	9	10	42.2%
Dylan Mulder			8	33.4	0	3	3	75.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Brendan Renius	6'1, 248	Sr.	60	61.7	31	2	51.7%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Dylan Mulder			36-36	4-7	57.1%	7-10	70.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Blake Banham	KR	5'10, 180	So.	20	20.0	0
Eddie Daugherty	KR	5'7, 159	So.	16	23.4	0
Blake Banham	PR	5'10, 180	So.	7	5.9	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	80
Field Goal Efficiency	69
Punt Return Success Rate	104
Kick Return Success Rate	64
Punt Success Rate	88
Kickoff Success Rate	49

9. Neither strength nor weakness

At the very least, EMU's special teams unit didn't tend to make things worse. Dylan Mulder was inconsistent inside of 40 yards but great outside of 40. Kickoffs and kick returns were decent, while punts and punt returns were below average.

Everybody but Mulder returns from last year's unit, and if experience leads to more consistency from punter Austin Barnes and the return men, EMU could rise into the top 60 in Special Teams S&P+.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
3-Sep	Miss. Valley State	NR	32.2	97%
10-Sep	at Missouri	47	-23.2	9%
17-Sep	at Charlotte	123	-3.2	43%
24-Sep	Wyoming	110	0.5	51%
1-Oct	at Bowling Green	60	-21.5	11%
8-Oct	Toledo	58	-14.7	20%
15-Oct	at Ohio	95	-12.9	23%
22-Oct	at Western Michigan	65	-20.6	12%
29-Oct	Miami (Ohio)	107	-0.3	49%
8-Nov	at Ball State	101	-10.0	28%
16-Nov	Northern Illinois	79	-10.9	26%
22-Nov	Central Michigan	85	-8.4	31%
Projected wins: 4.0

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-47.3% (126)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	120 / 119
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	-13 / -5.6
2015 TO Luck/Game	-3.1
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	77% (78%, 75%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	2.1 (-1.1)

10. I mean ... it's not impossible

The kindness of the injury bug will dictate so much. If you look at the starting 22 and nothing else, you see a high-ceiling quarterback, an explosive running back, at least one reliable receiver, five senior starters on the offensive line, a high-caliber defensive front four, two exciting linebackers, and a secondary loaded with experience.

And if you look at the potential second string, you see almost nothing but unproven freshmen and sophomores. If the injury bug bites hard, or if players like Shaq Vann or Eddie Daugherty suffer through a sophomore slump, then Creighton's third year will look a lot like his second: glimpses of early potential foiled by a failing depth chart.

A normal or small number of injuries, however, could lead to an interesting season. Projected 121st, EMU is given between a 26 and 51 percent chance of winning in six games and has a gimme against MVSU to start the year. If health and experience lead to a third-year step forward, and EMU ends up more in the No. 90-110 range, that could flip EMU's win projection from 4.0 to close to 5.5 or so. Add in some close-game luck or strong bounces, and that's a bowl campaign.

I really, really want to predict that. Don't you? Aside from New Mexico State's, there is not a more long-suffering fanbase in FBS than EMU's, and every fanbase deserves happiness occasionally.