Now would be a great time for a BYU breakthrough. Can a new head coach deliver?

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year's team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year's roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

1. Change can be good

Bronco Mendenhall is a very good coach, probably the second-best BYU has ever had. A quick glance at SRS ratings shows LaVell Edwards fielded 17 of BYU's 25 best teams, but Mendenhall is in second place with six.

In a time of upheaval, with BYU leaving the Mountain West in favor of football independence amid ongoing Big 12 rumors, Mendenhall guided well. In five years as an independent, BYU never won fewer than eight games and three times ranked in the S&P+ top 40.

In 2015, for the sixth time in Mendenhall's 11-year tenure, BYU won at least nine games. The Cougars scored thrilling wins over Nebraska and Boise State, mostly dominated lesser opponents, and showed resilience after a disastrous start against Utah in the Las Vegas Bowl. Down 35-0 after 10 minutes and a deluge of turnovers, they got to within 35-28.

BYU seemed to hit a ceiling under Mendenhall, but it was a pretty good ceiling, one that nobody besides Edwards has managed. I defended Mendenhall pretty frequently to BYU fans. That Mendenhall wasn't as successful as Edwards was a point of resentment, but Edwards was a once-in-a-lifetime hire. Almost anybody BYU could hire would fail in comparison.

If Mendenhall would have stayed at BYU for another 10 years and then retired, that would have probably worked out just fine. A certain propensity for borderline-dirty play would have resulted in a few more incidents, but Mendenhall would have won about 75 to 90 games, probably with a couple of 10- or 11-wins seasons.

That said, his departure for Virginia might not be the worst thing. For one thing, he didn't think he was going to get another 10 years.

"There was a significant change toward the end of last season. It was pretty clear – no, that’s an understatement. It was crystal clear that I had done what I was capable of and supposed to do at BYU with the time I was there."

It appeared this was a coaching marriage gone stale. Mendenhall didn't know what else he could do to move the program forward through independence, and at some point BYU administration was going to get tired of only beating mediocre and bad teams. Mendenhall welcomed Virginia's advances, and BYU got a chance to start over.

Because the BYU head coach needs to be a member in good standing with the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, the Cougars don't really have the option of making coaching changes too frequently, as the pool of qualified candidates isn't particularly deep. (Only three men have coached BYU since 1972.)

But in that pool were some intriguing names, and once Navy head coach Ken Niumatalolo passed, the Cougars landed one of the more accomplished young defensive coaches in the West. Former BYU fullback and Utah/Oregon State defensive coordinator Kalani Sitake takes over.

The 40-year-old has spent 13 of his 15 years as a coach in Utah, taking a sojourn to Oregon State in 2015. He is familiar with the job and its requirements; he checks a lot of boxes. Now we get to find out if he's a good head coach.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 9-4 | Adj. Record: 9-4 | Final F/+ Rk: 35 | Final S&P+ Rk: 38
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
5-Sep	at Nebraska	36	33-28	W	69%	77%	+9.1	+12.0
12-Sep	Boise State	37	35-24	W	72%	65%	+15.6	+14.0
19-Sep	at UCLA	28	23-24	L	35%	9%	+15.9	+16.0
26-Sep	at Michigan	8	0-31	L	4%	0%	-23.8	-26.0
2-Oct	Connecticut	80	30-13	W	84%	99%	-2.4	-1.0
10-Oct	East Carolina	73	45-38	W	66%	76%	-2.6	-1.0
16-Oct	Cincinnati	72	38-24	W	93%	100%	-5.6	+7.5
24-Oct	Wagner	N/A	70-6	W	98%	100%	+18.1
6-Nov	at San Jose State	89	17-16	W	79%	94%	-12.2	-12.5
14-Nov	vs. Missouri	75	16-20	L	37%	36%	-17.8	-10.5
21-Nov	Fresno State	103	52-10	W	94%	100%	+18.7	+16.0
28-Nov	at Utah State	53	51-28	W	75%	86%	+23.3	+20.0
19-Dec	vs. Utah	22	28-35	L	40%	20%	-6.2	-4.5

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	32.1	48	23.2	34
Points Per Game	33.7	40	22.8	34

2. Shaky when it counted most

Mendenhall's teams were their own worst enemy at times, making the one error they absolutely couldn't and sometimes wasting their best performances in games that didn't matter.

In 2015, the Cougars played three of their four worst games against the three best teams on the schedule.

• Average Percentile Performance (vs. F/+ top 30): 26% (~top 95) | Record: 0-3 | Yards per play: Opp 5.2, BYU 4.1 (-1.1)
• Average Percentile Performance (vs. everyone else): 77% (~top 30) | Record: 9-1 | Yards per play: BYU 6.6, Opp 4.8 (+1.8)

That's not how you ingratiate yourself to a fanbase. In two of these three, the Cougars' tenacity either kept them close (against UCLA) or allowed them to battle back (Utah), but on a per-play basis, an offense that was so good against almost everybody else was mistake-prone.

The UCLA and Michigan games came right after exhausting wins, and the Utah game came after Mendenhall's announced departure. Building narratives off of a small sample can be a pretty foolish exercise. Still, in a marriage that was already problematic, these performances didn't help.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.30	45	IsoPPP+	113.2	31
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	42.3%	61	Succ. Rt. +	109.5	33
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	30.1	73	Def. FP+	29.5	62
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	5.2	7	Redzone S&P+	118.1	16
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	21.7		ACTUAL	20	-1.7

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	49	32	33	31
RUSHING	112	49	51	43
PASSING	21	35	22	38
Standard Downs		34	29	36
Passing Downs		33	39	27

Q1 Rk	26	1st Down Rk	31
Q2 Rk	41	2nd Down Rk	76
Q3 Rk	14	3rd Down Rk	8
Q4 Rk	36

3. A familiar face

Sitake was a fullback in college and spent two years as an offensive asisstant for Southern Utah (2003-04); he's not a total blank slate when it comes to offense. Still, one assumes he'll play more of a day-to-day role on defense.

And he's handed over the offense to somebody who might know a thing or two about running the BYU offense.

Detmer won the 1990 Heisman, threw for 15,031 yards and 121 touchdowns in his Cougar career, then threw for 6,351 more in a a decent pro career.

After a stint as an investor took a nasty turn, he ended up in coaching. In five years of leading St. Andrews Episcopal School in Texas, he converted a winless team into one that went 8-1 last year. And now he takes a huge leap, from a small private school in Austin to the coaches' box at LaVell Edwards Stadium.

High school coaching experience hones your teaching skills, but we'll see how Detmer does as a first-time play-caller at the college level. He is going to slow things down a bit, huddling between plays and attempting to vary formations -- think of something midway between last year's BYU offense and the typical Stanford offense. One assumes Detmer's mind is sharp, but we'll see if there are any growing pains.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Tanner Mangum	6'3, 215	So.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9448	267	446	3377	23	10	59.9%	29	6.1%	6.7
Taysom Hill	6'2, 230	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8484	21	34	268	1	1	61.8%	3	8.1%	6.9
Beau Hoge	6'1, 201	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8258	10	17	137	1	1	58.8%	1	5.6%	7.2
Koy Detmer Jr.	5'10, 170	So.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	3	3	57	0	0	100.0%	0	0.0%	19.0
Jaren Hall	6'1, 195	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8549

4. This might be awkward

After throwing for 2,938 yards and rushing for 1,344 in 2013, the electric Taysom Hill missed most of the last two years with injury. In what was supposed to be his senior season last fall, he suffered a season-ending foot injury in the opening game. He was granted a sixth year of eligibility, which is great news, and he elected to stay in Provo.

One problem: In Hill's absence, freshman Tanner Mangum thrived. Recently back from a two-year LDS mission, the former blue-chipper threw for 3,377 yards. He struggled against some of the better defenses -- passer rating against UCLA, Michigan, Missouri, and Utah: 97.3; against everybody else: 160.3 -- but he cleared every hurdle you could ask a freshman to clear. And he seems tailor-made for whatever a Detmer offense becomes.

One would assume that if Mangum were to win the starting job, there could still be a short-yardage or goal line package to utilize Hill. Still, BYU basically has two returning starting quarterbacks, and that could be both a blessing and a curse. The moment one struggles, the urge to shuffle to the other could be strong.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Algernon Brown	RB/FB	6'1, 245	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8495	127	709	11	5.6	6.4	37.8%	4	1
Jamaal Williams (2014)	RB	6'2, 220	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8335	112	517	4	4.6	3.5	36.6%	2	1
Adam Hine	RB					64	326	2	5.1	6.0	37.5%	1	1
Francis Bernard	RB					52	334	7	6.4	5.1	53.8%	2	1
Nate Carter	RB					37	148	2	4.0	10.5	18.9%	0	0
Tanner Mangum	QB	6'3, 215	So.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9448	33	100	2	3.0	2.3	27.3%	5	3
Beau Hoge	QB	6'1, 201	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8258	15	57	2	3.8	2.2	40.0%	0	0
Riley Burt	RB	6'1, 206	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8166	14	86	0	6.1	7.3	42.9%	1	1
Taysom Hill	QB	6'2, 230	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8484	6	83	2	13.8	9.4	83.3%	0	0
Colby Hansen	RB	5'11, 195	Jr.	NR	NR	5	17	0	3.4	1.5	40.0%	0	0
Toloa'i Ho Ching	RB	6'1, 240	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8525
Squally Canada (Washington State)	RB	5'11, 200	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8520
Brayden El-Bakri	FB	6'0, 236	So.	NR	NR
Sione Finau	RB	5'11, 170	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8232

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Mitch Mathews	WR					105	54	737	51.4%	21.9%	7.0	66.7%	41.0%	1.68
Devon Blackmon	WR					78	46	669	59.0%	16.3%	8.6	57.7%	42.3%	1.81
Nick Kurtz	WR	6'6, 210	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8705	63	39	578	61.9%	13.2%	9.2	61.9%	54.0%	1.57
Terenn Houk	WR					55	37	490	67.3%	11.5%	8.9	56.4%	63.6%	1.24
Mitchell Juergens	WR	5'10, 181	Sr.	NR	NR	55	37	471	67.3%	11.5%	8.6	58.2%	49.1%	1.54
Colby Pearson	WR	6'0, 203	Sr.	NR	NR	30	22	210	73.3%	6.3%	7.0	56.7%	50.0%	1.19
Francis Bernard	RB					20	17	156	85.0%	4.2%	7.8	65.0%	60.0%	1.20
Algernon Brown	RB	6'1, 245	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8495	17	13	71	76.5%	3.5%	4.2	64.7%	35.3%	1.28
Remington Peck	TE/DE					13	7	75	53.8%	2.7%	5.8	61.5%	53.8%	0.88
Moroni Laulu-Pututau	WR	6'4, 211	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7867	10	6	112	60.0%	2.1%	11.2	60.0%	40.0%	2.44
Kurt Henderson	WR					7	4	58	57.1%	1.5%	8.3	42.9%	28.6%	2.45
Adam Hine	RB					6	4	15	66.7%	1.3%	2.5	100.0%	16.7%	1.09
Trey Dye	RB/WR	5'9, 179	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8120	4	4	67	100.0%	0.8%	16.8	50.0%	75.0%	2.08
Josh Weeks	TE	6'4, 232	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8590	3	3	23	100.0%	0.6%	7.7	66.7%	66.7%	0.90
Akile Davis	WR	6'2, 191	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8164	3	1	9	33.3%	0.6%	3.0	100.0%	33.3%	0.69
Bryan Sampson	TE	6'4, 235	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8484
Garrett Juergens	WR	5'10, 184	Sr.	NR	NR
Tanner Balderree	TE	6'3, 248	Jr.	NR	NR
Nate Sampton	TE	6'2, 240	So.	NR	NR
Jonah Trinnaman	WR	6'0, 190	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8743
Hank Tuipulotu	TE	6'3, 225	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8083
Alevi Hifo	WR	5'10, 180	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8267

5. The QB of choice can work with this

The reinstatement of center Tejan Koroma, who has been suspended for much of the offseason, should ensure BYU has a steady line. The Cougars' line stats were neither good nor bad last year, but they return almost their entire two-deep, sans guard Ryker Matthews. And size isn't an issue -- the eight returnees with starting experience average 6'4, 313.

But whether Detmer is going with a run-friendly look with Hill in the backfield or wants an all-out, five-receiver attack, it would appear he's got the pieces.

Jamaal Williams -- another veteran who got hurt last year (he got hurt, then withdrew from school for a semester, anyway) -- returns, and last year's leading rusher, Algernon Brown, will move to more of a fullback role. With Hill, that would give BYU three accomplished runners in the same backfield. And between Washington State transfer Squally Canada and sophomore Riley Burt, the Cougars could have decent halfback depth.

The receiver position has thinned out but returns solid weapons. Nick Kurtz averaged 9.2 yards per target and came up especially big against Nebraska and Cincinnati (combined: 11 catches, 242 yards), Mitchell Juergens has caught 65 passes over two years, and sophomore Moroni Laulu-Pututau had a couple of big catches last year and was a 2016 spring star. Four-star JUCO Jonah Trinnaman could play a role, too. Depth might be a concern with a couple of injuries, but if the injury bug is kind, this group could be excellent.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	103.2	2.76	3.28	38.3%	68.4%	20.3%	91.2	5.9%	7.3%
Rank	55	85	62	75	47	85	75	86	62

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Ryker Mathews	LG					11	33
Kyle Johnson	RG	6'4, 319	Sr.	NR	NR	7	27
Tejan Koroma	C	6'0, 290	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7719	12	25
Ului Lapuaho	LG	6'7, 333	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8373	10	18
Brad Wilcox	LT	6'7, 310	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8081	12	12
Tuni Kanuch	RG	6'3, 325	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8484	8	12
Parker Dawe	C	6'3, 301	Sr.	NR	NR	2	2
Austin Hoyt	RT	6'8, 282	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8549	2	2
Jaterrius Gulley	LG	6'2, 346	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	1	1
JJ Nwigwe	LT	6'5, 278	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7948	0	0
Jacob Jimenez	LG	6'5, 292	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7923	0	0
Quin Ficklin	C	6'3, 280	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8009	0	0
Thomas Shoaf	RT	6'5, 265	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8353
Austin Chambers	OL	6'4, 270	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8416
Lisala Tai	OL	6'7, 310	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8219
Caden Haws	OL	6'2, 275	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8104

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.19	34	IsoPPP+	104.4	48
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	39.2%	47	Succ. Rt. +	102.6	54
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	29.4	79	Off. FP+	29.8	72
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	3.9	25	Redzone S&P+	111.9	26
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	18.1		ACTUAL	22.0	+3.9

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	23	54	54	48
RUSHING	34	72	54	82
PASSING	31	49	60	41
Standard Downs		65	67	70
Passing Downs		33	41	31

Q1 Rk	60	1st Down Rk	47
Q2 Rk	6	2nd Down Rk	24
Q3 Rk	49	3rd Down Rk	61
Q4 Rk	61

6. A Sitake-Tuiaki defense

If you're a fan of a rival, you could point out that when Sitake left his job as Utah defensive coordinator to take the same job at Oregon State, OSU's defensive ratings plummeted (from 73rd to 110th in Def. S&P+) while Utah's improved (from 30th to 14th). That would be ignoring the talent Utah returned and the talent Oregon State didn't, but it's a reminder that Sitake's aggressive defense doesn't work with just any personnel.

New coordinator Ilaisa Tuiaki served as Sitake's defensive line coach at Utah and linebackers coach at Oregon State. Their Utah defense was a unique mix of conservative run defense and ultra-aggressive pass defense. The Utes had a spectacular pass rush and an aggressive secondary that was willing to get beaten a few times in the name of making plays.

At first glance, it would seem the personnel could fit. BYU is incredibly experienced in the secondary, and while leading pass rusher Bronson Kaufusi is now a Baltimore Raven, six players with at least three sacks last fall return. Run defense might be a question mark, but experience is good up front, too.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	99.8	2.68	2.62	33.1%	60.5%	25.1%	155.5	6.8%	11.5%
Rank	63	35	13	12	31	9	5	14	12

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Bronson Kaufusi	DE					13	54.0	7.6%	19.5	10.5	1	2	3	0
Sae Tautu	DE	6'4, 245	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8111	13	31.0	4.4%	9.0	4.0	0	0	0	0
Sione Takitaki	DE	6'2, 240	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8510	6	17.0	2.4%	7.0	3.5	0	0	0	0
Tomasi Laulile	DE	6'4, 288	Sr.	NR	NR	12	20.0	2.8%	5.5	3.0	0	0	0	1
Logan Taele	DE	6'2, 299	Sr.	NR	NR	13	19.5	2.7%	6.5	1.5	0	0	0	0
Travis Tuiloma	NT	6'2, 301	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7889	9	18.0	2.5%	3.0	3.0	0	0	0	0
Graham Rowley	DE					13	14.0	2.0%	2.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Kesni Tausinga	DE	6'1, 309	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8432	11	6.5	0.9%	2.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Remington Peck	DE					13	4.5	0.6%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Tevita Mo'Unga	NT	6'2, 322	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8478	7	3.5	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Moses Kaumatule	DE	6'2, 262	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8600	7	1.5	0.2%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Troy Hinds	DE	6'5, 245	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9230
Handsome Tanielu	DT	6'2, 285	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8903
Zac Dawe	DT	6'4, 274	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8479
Uriah Leiataua	DE	6'4, 238	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8382
Trajan Pili	DE	6'2, 225	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8282
Freddy Livai	DE	6'4, 256	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8079

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Fred Warner	OLB	6'4, 227	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8921	13	56.0	7.9%	11.5	4.0	2	1	0	1
Harvey Langi	OLB	6'3, 249	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9068	11	54.5	7.7%	6.5	4.5	2	1	0	0
Manoa Pikula	OLB					11	42.0	5.9%	3.5	2.0	0	0	0	0
Jherremya Leuta-Douyere	ILB					11	39.0	5.5%	2.5	0.5	0	1	0	0
Teu Kautai	OLB					11	12.5	1.8%	2.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Austin Heder	ILB	6'2, 240	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8366	13	10.5	1.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Butch Pau'u	ILB	6'0, 223	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8581	8	6.5	0.9%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Va'a Niumatalolo	LB	6'2, 231	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	3	3.5	0.5%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Phillip Amone	LB	6'0, 240	So.	3 stars (5.5)	NR	2	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Scott Huntsman	OLB	6'2, 227	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7826	5	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Lene Lesatele	OLB	6'2, 245	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8269	4	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Rhett Sandlin	OLB	6'3, 249	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.7900	7	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Tyler Cook	LB	6'3, 230	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8478
Francis Bernard	ILB	6'1, 239	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8081
Morgan Unga	OLB	6'5, 205	So.	NR	NR
Keenan Pili	LB	6'3, 210	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8465
Alema Pilimai	LB	6'4, 205	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8405
Hirkley Latu	LB	6'3, 200	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8287
Solofa Funa	LB	6'2, 225	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8096
Johnny Tapusoa	ILB	5'10, 225	Fr.	NR	NR

7. Depth? Check. Ace pass rusher? Not sure

Kaufusi was a constant distraction for opposing blockers, and it's possible that his presence created a residual effect, opening up opportunities for others. BYU ranked fifth in Adj. Sack Rate, and there's no guarantee that the Cougars will post another high rating despite Sitake's defensive mentality and the pieces he inherits.

It's hard to see the rating falling too far, however. After some position changes, BYU boasts three effective ends and a unique pass rushing weapon in tackle Travis Tuiloma. Outside linebackers Fred Warner and Harvey Langi also proved effective attackers.

Shuffling has placed interesting players in attacking roles, but it has opened up a hole at inside linebacker, where senior Austin Heder and Butch Pau'u could battle to prove they can quarterback this front seven effectively.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Michael Wadsworth	SS					13	65.5	9.2%	2.5	0	0	4	0	0
Kai Nacua	FS	6'2, 208	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7891	12	52.5	7.4%	1	0	6	6	0	0
Micah Hannemann	SS	6'0, 200	Jr.	NR	NR	13	39.0	5.5%	1.5	1	2	7	0	0
Michael Davis	CB	6'2, 190	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7785	13	24.5	3.5%	1.5	0	0	9	1	0
Michael Shelton	CB	5'8, 175	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7954	12	21.0	3.0%	2	0	1	2	0	0
Jordan Preator	FS	6'0, 180	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7783	8	18.5	2.6%	1	0	1	1	1	0
Kavika Fonua (2014)	FS	6'0, 215	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7000	11	12.5	1.6%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Matt Hadley	FS	6'0, 210	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8292	11	12.0	1.7%	2	0	0	2	0	0
Grant Jones	SS	6'6, 205	Jr.	NR	NR	12	12.0	1.7%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Chris Badger	FS	6'0, 191	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8641	13	10.5	1.5%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Eric Takenaka	SS	5'10, 210	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8056	10	9.5	1.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Zayne Anderson	DB	6'2, 198	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8268	8	3.0	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0
Sawyer Powell	DB	6'1, 194	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8432
Akile Davis	CB	6'2, 191	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8164
Dayan Lake	CB	5'11, 203	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8730
Troy Warner	CB	6'1, 192	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9008
Max Tooley	DB	6'2, 195	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8608
Drew Jensen	DB	6'2, 195	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8516
Isaiah Kaufusi	DB	6'2, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8015

8. The secondary should be strong

Sitake's approach can treaten to fail if the secondary isn't up to snuff. But after a year of shuffling and injury -- 10 players recorded at least 9.5 tackles, but only four played in all 13 games -- the Cougars appear to return both experience and play-making ability.

Safety Kai Nacua, corner Michael Davis, and corner-turned-safety Micah Hannemann combined to defense 30 passes last year, and every returning DB (plus sophomore Kavika Fonua, who missed 2015) proved they could make plays near the line of scrimmage. This unit will get burned here and there, which is scary considering some of the quarterbacks on the 2016 schedule (Arizona's Anu Solomon, UCLA's Josh Rosen, WVU's Skyler Howard, Boise State's Brett Rypien, Cincinnati's Gunner Kiel). But if the risk-to-reward balance is solid, and the pass rush is strong, BYU could survive.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Jonny Linehan	6'0, 201	Sr.	62	42.7	3	19	18	59.7%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Austin Brasher	6'0, 183	Sr.	74	63.2	33	3	44.6%
Corey Edwards	6'0, 217	So.	7	56.4	1	0	14.3%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Trevor Samson			52-55	9-10	90.0%	5-7	71.4%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Riley Burt	KR	6'1, 206	So.	13	24.5	0
Devon Blackmon	KR			5	16.8	0
Michael Shelton	PR	5'8, 175	So.	10	11.0	0
Micah Hannemann	PR	6'0, 200	Jr.	10	3.5	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	51
Field Goal Efficiency	33
Punt Return Success Rate	97
Kick Return Success Rate	79
Punt Success Rate	94
Kickoff Success Rate	57

9. Shore up that coverage unit

Losing place-kicker Trevor Samson hurts; he was the best special teams weapon BYU had last year. But while we wait to see if a new kicker can produce similar reliability, BYU could help itself significantly by hemming in return men a bit better. Despite solid distance and quite a few fair catches from punter Jonny Linehan, BYU ranked just 110th in opponent punt return average.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
3-Sep	vs. Arizona	64	5.7	63%
10-Sep	at Utah	39	-2.9	43%
17-Sep	UCLA	12	-4.6	40%
24-Sep	vs. West Virginia	33	-0.8	48%
30-Sep	Toledo	58	8.2	68%
8-Oct	at Michigan State	22	-8.7	31%
14-Oct	Mississippi State	21	-1.7	46%
20-Oct	at Boise State	36	-3.4	42%
5-Nov	at Cincinnati	70	3.4	58%
12-Nov	Southern Utah	NR	26.5	94%
19-Nov	Massachusetts	127	29.0	95%
26-Jan	Utah State	73	11.2	74%
Projected wins: 7.0

Five-Year F/+ Rk	19.4% (32)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	66 / 70
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	2 / -3.6
2015 TO Luck/Game	+2.2
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	70% (67%, 73%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	8.6 (0.4)

10. Another huge September

In a revealing offseason interview, Bronco Mendenhall said he didn't think BYU's football independence was viable long-term. And in what may have been a surprising response, AD Tom Holmoe more-or-less agreed. But whatever "long-term" means, BYU is attempting to prove itself with brutal early-season scheduling.

The Cougars faced Nebraska, Boise State, UCLA, and Michigan in September last year and take on Arizona, Utah, UCLA, Michigan State, and Mississippi State this time. LSU, Utah, Wisconsin, and Mississippi State are lined up for 2017. The Big 12 could come calling in that time, though if we've learned anything from the last six years, it's that the Big 12 cannot be counted on.

Regardless, the Sitake hire is fiercely important for the future. Sustainable for 50 years or not, BYU is independent right now and has a chance to prove itself in 2016 and beyond. And he should have a pretty good team. BYU appears to have the pieces its famous offensive coordinator needs, and if the secondary can avoid getting burned, the defense could be strong, too. This could easily be a top-30 team, and there are plenty of opportunities for statement wins.