Notre Dame made it through a brutal 2015. Now it's time to contend for a Playoff spot.

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year's team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year's roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

1. Brian Kelly's best coaching job

Kelly's Fighting Irish suffered a little bit of bad turnover luck, lost their starting running back in the first week of the season, lost their quarterback in the second week and dealt with a secondary that was banged up all year. They were adapting on the fly, from fall camp through November.

But in the regular season, they lost only in the final minute, on the road, to the teams that finished second and third in the final AP poll.

That Clemson's Dabo Swinney won the AP's coach of the year award made sense -- he did, after all, lead the Tigers to the national title game. That Iowa's Kirk Ferentz, Michigan State's Mark Dantonio, Houston's Tom Herman, and Oklahoma's Bob Stoops got more votes than Kelly was fine. They did great jobs.

Kelly deserved more votes than the one of 60 he received. His squad took on more adversity than almost any other and handled it with aplomb.

With a redshirt freshman at quarterback and a wide receiver at running back, Notre Dame ranked seventh in Off. S&P+. And while the defense ranked only 35th in Def. S&P+ -- even with injuries in the secondary, a unit with this recruiting should produce better results -- it still held nine opponents under 30 points, typically good enough when you've got a top-10 offense. And even with iffy defense, Notre Dame had one of the most consistent teams in the country, which is remarkable considering the youth at quarterback.

This was Kelly's best coaching job; this might have been Kelly's best team, even better than the one that made the 2012 BCS Championship. (S&P+ says 2012 was slightly better, but only slightly.)

So how does he follow up? Notre Dame returns just enough talent to talk yourself into the Fighting Irish but has just enough "ifs" to give you pause.

With two returning starters for one spot, they must figure out their quarterback situation. They must replace uniquely explosive weapons in receiver Will Fuller and running back C.J. Prosise. Though there's a world of potential on both lines, they must replace two particularly disruptive defenders and three OL starters who had combined for 106 career starts. And they must replace a guy who was, according to the Butkus Award voters, the best linebacker in the country.

Still, Notre Dame features more exciting sophomores and juniors than almost any team in the country: quarterbacks DeShone Kizer and Malik Zaire, running back Josh Adams, tight end Alizé Jones, safety Drue Tranquill, etc. [Update: Jones has been suspended for the season due to academic reasons.] If Kelly can keep his troops rallied, Notre Dame will have a serious shot at a Playoff bid, especially considering the schedule might ease up. And if the defense plays to its recruiting rankings, this team's ceiling is as high as anyone's outside of Tuscaloosa.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 10-3 | Adj. Record: 12-1 | Final F/+ Rk: 7 | Final S&P+ Rk: 8
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
5-Sep	Texas	68	38-3	W	99%	100%	+24.3	+25.0
12-Sep	at Virginia	78	34-27	W	72%	81%	-3.4	-6.0
19-Sep	Georgia Tech	64	30-22	W	93%	99%	+6.1	+11.0
26-Sep	Massachusetts	100	62-27	W	87%	97%	-3.3	+6.0
3-Oct	at Clemson	2	22-24	L	77%	46%	+11.3	-2.0
10-Oct	Navy	21	41-24	W	93%	94%	+10.0	+2.5
17-Oct	USC	17	41-31	W	75%	68%	+8.1	+3.0
31-Oct	at Temple	45	24-20	W	89%	91%	+0.8	-6.5
7-Nov	at Pittsburgh	46	42-30	W	83%	87%	+2.4	+3.5
14-Nov	Wake Forest	92	28-7	W	85%	98%	-8.1	-6.0
21-Nov	vs. Boston College	70	19-16	W	83%	84%	-10.8	-13.5
28-Nov	at Stanford	6	36-38	L	77%	53%	-1.9	+1.5
1-Jan	vs. Ohio State	3	28-44	L	45%	2%	-11.6	-9.0

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	42.4	7	23.7	35
Points Per Game	34.2	34	24.1	39

2. The epitome of consistency (till the bowl)

Even in the Fiesta Bowl loss to Ohio State, Notre Dame broke even, averaging and allowing 5.8 yards per play. That game turned on efficiency, turnovers, and field position, and the Irish were clearly the inferior team, but even in their worst moment they were still competitive. And before that, Notre Dame was one of the most consistent teams in the country.

• First 4 games
  Average percentile performance: 88% | Yards per play: ND 7.6, Opp 5.1 (average S&P+ rank of opponent: 78)
• Next 4 games
  Average percentile performance: 84% | Yards per play: ND 6.9, Opp 5.9 (average S&P+ rank of opponent: 21)
• Next 4 games
  Average percentile performance: 82% | Yards per play: ND 6.8, Opp 5.6 (average S&P+ rank of opponent: 54)

The caliber of opponent changed, but Notre Dame's proficiency did not.

There were some unexpectedly close games. The Irish needed late heroics to beat Virginia because of iffy red zone execution (they created eight scoring chances to UVA's five but settled for three field goal attempts and turned the ball over on downs). They fell asleep against Georgia Tech (allowing two touchdowns in the final minute after going up 30-7) and Boston College (again allowing two fourth-quarter scores after going up 19-3).

Still, despite youth and a tumultuous two-deep, Notre Dame was solid. That's a good sign.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.40	10	IsoPPP+	132.2	5
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	45.7%	23	Succ. Rt. +	126.4	4
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	26.6	9	Def. FP+	25.0	6
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.8	35	Redzone S&P+	123.2	7
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	18.6		ACTUAL	20	+1.4

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	27	5	4	5
RUSHING	27	1	2	2
PASSING	35	10	9	12
Standard Downs		11	6	15
Passing Downs		3	4	2

Q1 Rk	13	1st Down Rk	1
Q2 Rk	21	2nd Down Rk	18
Q3 Rk	1	3rd Down Rk	1
Q4 Rk	2

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
DeShone Kizer	6'4, 230	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9073	210	334	2880	21	10	62.9%	21	5.9%	7.7
Malik Zaire	6'0, 225	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9268	26	40	428	4	0	65.0%	2	4.8%	9.8
Brandon Wimbush	6'1, 216	So.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9784	3	5	17	0	0	60.0%	1	16.7%	0.8

3. Now what?

Kizer was fearless in 2015. Zaire looked the part of a Heisman contender against Texas, then broke his ankle against Virginia. Kizer entered, and Notre Dame immediately punted twice. But after UVA scored to take a surprising 27-26 lead, Kizer completed five of seven passes for 75 yards, lobbed a gorgeous touchdown pass to Will Fuller with 12 seconds left, then completed a two-point conversion to Torii Hunter Jr. for good measure.

The next week against Georgia Tech, he completed 70 percent of his passes. And against Notre Dame's toughest stretch -- Clemson, Navy, USC, Temple, Pitt -- hits passer rating only once dipped below 148. That was in the Temple game, and even then, in crunch time, he completed four straight passes for 69 yards, including the game-winning score. He faded, completing only 52 percent with three picks against BC and Stanford.

But Kizer enters 2016 as one of the most proven returning quarterbacks in the country, an explosive passer and timely runner.

And he might not even be the best quarterback on his own team. He was more efficient than Zaire in the spring game, but the two split reps almost equally in March and April and will likely do so again in fall camp.

Knowing what we now know about Kizer, if Zaire wins the job back, he'll have proven himself improved. And unless chemistry issues form (there are no signs of that yet), Notre Dame is going to be set at quarterback no matter who wins the job.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Tarean Folston (2014)	RB	5'9, 214	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9497	175	889	6	5.1	3.5	42.9%	1	0
C.J. Prosise	RB					160	1048	11	6.6	6.9	48.1%	5	2
Josh Adams	RB	6'2, 219	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8973	116	838	6	7.2	7.8	46.6%	2	1
DeShone Kizer	QB	6'4, 230	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9073	113	654	10	5.8	5.5	43.4%	5	2
Dexter Williams	RB	5'11, 210	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9551	21	81	1	3.9	2.0	38.1%	0	0
Malik Zaire	QB	6'0, 225	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9268	17	118	0	6.9	8.2	47.1%	0	0
Brandon Wimbush	QB	6'1, 216	So.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9784	6	108	1	18.0	19.8	66.7%	1	1
Amir Carlisle	WR					6	38	0	6.3	7.6	33.3%	0	0
Torii Hunter Jr.	WR	6'0, 195	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9156	5	16	0	3.2	2.4	20.0%	1	1
Justin Brent	RB	6'2, 220	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9537
Tony Jones Jr.	RB	5'10, 219	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8926

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Will Fuller	WR					95	62	1258	65.3%	25.9%	13.2	53.7%	54.7%	2.35
Chris Brown	WR					78	48	597	61.5%	21.3%	7.7	73.1%	52.6%	1.29
Amir Carlisle	WR					44	31	351	70.5%	12.0%	8.0	70.5%	54.5%	1.33
Torii Hunter Jr.	WR	6'0, 195	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9156	42	28	363	66.7%	11.4%	8.6	66.7%	61.9%	1.21
C.J. Prosise	RB					36	27	325	75.0%	9.8%	9.0	58.3%	36.1%	2.19
Corey Robinson	WR	6'4, 215	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8822	29	16	200	55.2%	7.9%	6.9	55.2%	48.3%	1.34
Alizé Jones	TE	6'4, 240	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9685	18	13	190	72.2%	4.9%	10.6	77.8%	61.1%	1.59
Nic Weishar	TE	6'4, 245	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9037	8	3	19	37.5%	2.2%	2.4	50.0%	25.0%	0.86
Josh Adams	RB	6'2, 219	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8973	7	7	42	100.0%	1.9%	6.0	71.4%	57.1%	0.94
Durham Smythe	TE	6'5, 245	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9057	5	3	18	60.0%	1.4%	3.6	40.0%	40.0%	1.00
Jacob Matuska	TE	6'5, 275	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8801
Corey Holmes	WR	6'1, 190	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9233
Equanimeous St. Brown	WR	6'4, 205	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9287
C.J. Sanders	WR	5'8, 185	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8997
Miles Boykin	WR	6'4, 225	RSFr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9177
Javon McKinley	WR	6'3, 205	Fr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9465
Chase Claypool	WR	6'4, 215	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9258
Kevin Stepherson	WR	6'0, 181	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8615

4. A couple of young WRs will need to thrive

Notre Dame's offense was the best in the country after halftime. Despite youth, Kizer's passer rating rose to 175.4 in the fourth quarter, and as coordinator Mike Sanford got a read on defenses, he tended to make devastating adjustments.

Granted, he made those adjustments knowing he had Fuller, Prosise, Chris Brown, and Amir Carlisle. This foursome combined for 12.3 carries per game for 80.6 yards and 12.9 catches per game for 194.7 yards. Prosise converted from WR to RB and immediately boosted the run game from solid to fantastic. The combination of Kizer's legs and Fuller's ability to get open deep made Notre Dame one of the best passing-downs offenses in the country.

The QB will certainly still have weapons. Tarean Folston returns after essentially missing 2015 with an ACL injury, and sophomore Josh Adams is back after showing monstrous potential. He picked up a heavier load down the stretch and thrived, averaging 16.4 carries per game and 7 yards per carry over the final five games. He had 18 carries for 168 yards in the loss to Stanford.

At receiver, losing four of your top five targets is alarming, but at least there are four-stars galore. Hunter is back after averaging 8.6 yards per target, and Alizé Jones could be ready to star. Student body president Corey Robinson is possibly back, too (he's been dealing with concussion issues).

Still, for Notre Dame to become a title contender, a couple of highly touted youngsters will have to break out. Wonderfully named sophomore Equanimeous St. Brown is likely to join Hunter in the starting lineup, and former star recruits vie for time, be they redshirt freshman Miles Boykin, incoming freshmen Javon McKinley, Chase Claypool, or Kevin Stepherson (who reported early and held his own in spring ball), or slot receivers Corey Homes or C.J. Sanders.

There are lots of options, but someone has to step up. Running back isn't much of a concern, but receiver could be.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	124.1	3.07	4.07	45.4%	66.7%	20.5%	105.4	6.2%	7.4%
Rank	2	36	3	4	58	87	52	88	64

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Ronnie Stanley	LT					13	39	2015 All-American
Nick Martin	C					13	37
Steve Elmer	RG					13	30
Mike McGlinchey	LT	6'8, 310	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9280	13	13
Quenton Nelson	LG	6'5, 325	Jr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9678	11	11
Alex Bars	RT	6'6, 320	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9471	2	2
Hunter Bivin	RT	6'6, 308	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9531	0	0
Colin McGovern	RG	6'5, 315	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9188	0	0
Sam Mustipher	C	6'2, 305	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9123	0	0
Mark Harrell	RG	6'4, 306	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8762	0	0
Jimmy Byrne	LT	6'4, 300	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8927	0	0
Tristen Hoge	C	6'4, 300	RSFr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9563
Trevor Ruhland	LG	6'3, 300	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8697
Tommy Kraemer	OL	6'5, 310	Fr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9819
Liam Eichenberg	OL	6'6, 280	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9603
Parker Boudreaux	OL	6'3, 300	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8803

5. An awesome line reloads

While Prosise and Adams played a significant role in Notre Dame's rushing improvement -- from 27th in Rushing S&P+ to first, from 32nd in Adj. Line yards to second -- the line did, too. Tackle Ronnie Stanley turned into an All-American and top-10 pick, and sophomores Mike McGlinchey and Quenton Nelson joined three experienced pieces to form a wonderful unit.

Now it's McGlinchey and Nelson who need help. Some combination of juniors Hunter Bivin and Colin McGovern, sophomores Alex Bars, Sam Mustipher, and Jimmy Byrne, and redshirt freshmen Tristen Hoge and Trevor Ruhland will need to quickly live up to recruiting rankings. Bars was solid as a spot starter for Nelson last year, and offensive line coach Harry Hiestand's presence makes it hard for me to worry too much. Still, the line has to prove itself.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.27	76	IsoPPP+	102.7	57
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	40.0%	56	Succ. Rt. +	110.0	33
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	28.7	97	Off. FP+	29.7	74
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.3	54	Redzone S&P+	115.5	19
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	17.1		ACTUAL	14.0	-3.1

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	45	46	33	57
RUSHING	72	56	39	67
PASSING	26	39	44	39
Standard Downs		53	42	54
Passing Downs		34	24	48

Q1 Rk	57	1st Down Rk	55
Q2 Rk	53	2nd Down Rk	69
Q3 Rk	39	3rd Down Rk	48
Q4 Rk	57

6. Opponents knew to run

Georgia Tech and Navy on the schedule assured Notre Dame's defensive run-pass rates would skew a bit toward the ground. Still, opponents ran 6 percentage points more than the national average on standard downs and 3 more on passing downs. That's not all on the option offenses. Despite the shuffling secondary, the Irish ranked 39th in Passing S&P+ but only 56th in Rushing S&P+.

The Fighting Irish were good in the redzone and made plays on passing downs, but run defense was a definite issue, and that was with end Romeo Okwara, tackle Sheldon Day, and linebackers Jaylon Smith and Joe Schmidt involved. They're gone, as are safeties Elijah Shumate and Matthias Farley and ace corner KeiVarae Russell.

There are plenty of reasons to talk yourself into this defense improving. For one thing, it did take a little bit of a step forward, from 43rd in Def. S&P+ to 35th, in coordinator Brian VanGorder's second year. For another, the return from injury of players like tackle Jarron Jones and safety Drue Tranquill will alleviate some lost depth.

Still, the defense was a weak link, and now it might need to improve just to offset offensive regression. If you feel like doubting Notre Dame, that gives you reason.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	113	2.84	2.63	36.7%	70.5%	22.1%	93.4	5.6%	7.4%
Rank	21	60	14	48	96	38	77	46	64

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Isaac Rochell	DE	6'4, 290	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9459	13	47.0	6.7%	7.5	1.0	0	2	0	0
Romeo Okwara	DE					13	40.5	5.8%	13.5	9.0	0	0	1	0
Sheldon Day	DT					13	39.0	5.5%	15.5	4.0	0	4	2	0
Jarron Jones (2014)	NG	6'6, 315	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9364	11	31.5	4.4%	7.5	1.5	0	0	1	0
Andrew Trumbetti	DE	6'4, 260	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9347	12	13.5	1.9%	2.5	1.0	1	0	0	0
Daniel Cage	NG	6'1, 315	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8924	11	13.0	1.8%	4.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jerry Tillery	DT	6'7, 310	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9293	12	10.5	1.5%	2.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Doug Randolph	DE					13	4.5	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jonathan Bonner	DE	6'3, 286	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8600	10	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
John Montelus	DT	6'4, 310	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9330
Grant Blankenship	DE	6'5, 278	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8982
Jay Hayes	DE	6'3, 285	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9060
Elijah Taylor	DT	6'3, 285	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8945
Micah Dew-Treadway	DT	6'4, 300	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8656
Brandon Tiassum	NG	6'4, 302	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8665
Daelin Hayes	DE	6'4, 257	Fr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9372
Khalid Kareem	DE	6'4, 270	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9208
Julian Okwara	DE	6'4, 216	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8976

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jaylon Smith	ILB					13	91.5	13.0%	9.0	1.0	0	5	1	1
Joe Schmidt	OLB					13	60.0	8.5%	4.0	1.0	1	3	0	0
James Onwualu	OLB	6'1, 232	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8950	11	29.5	4.2%	6.0	3.0	0	2	1	0
Greer Martini	OLB	6'3, 245	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8833	13	27.0	3.8%	2.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Jarrett Grace	LB					13	20.5	2.9%	1.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Nyles Morgan	ILB	6'1, 245	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9727	13	13.0	1.8%	0.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Te'von Coney	OLB	6'1, 235	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.8960	12	9.5	1.4%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Josh Barajas	ILB	6'2, 240	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9381
Asmar Bilal	OLB	6'2, 230	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9200

7. A lot back, a lot gone

Look in two directions when weighing the merits of a unit.

Losing Okwara, Day, and Smith means losing all three players who had at least nine tackles for loss in 2015, and that gives reason for concern.

But almost all of the rest of the two-deep returns in the front seven. So does Jones.

The senior missed 2015 with a knee injury (who didn't?), but the combination of Jones, junior Daniel Cage, sophomore Jerry Tillery, and former offensive lineman John Montelus should give Notre Dame some push in the middle. End Isaac Rochell is a keeper as well, and five-star freshman Daelin Hayes will be expected to contribute from day one. There is a load of redshirt freshman tackles trying to crack the rotation as well.

At linebacker, depth could be an issue with a poorly placed injury or two. But James Onwualu is a play-maker, and if either Nyles Morgan or Te'Von Coney sticks at inside linebacker, the starting three should be solid, at least.

With what returns, I don't see Notre Dame's run defense getting any worse, but with what the Irish lost, it's hard to imagine too much improvement.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Elijah Shumate	SS					13	61.0	8.7%	6.5	0	1	2	0	0
KeiVarae Russell	CB					11	54.0	7.7%	3.5	1	2	4	2	0
Max Redfield	FS	6'1, 205	Sr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9852	11	51.5	7.3%	2	1	1	2	0	0
Cole Luke	CB	5'11, 193	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9325	13	35.0	5.0%	1	0	2	5	0	0
Matthias Farley	FS					13	34.0	4.8%	0	0	1	1	1	0
Devin Butler	CB	6'1, 200	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8902	12	8.5	1.2%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Drue Tranquill	SS	6'2, 225	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8961	3	7.5	1.1%	2.5	0	0	2	0	0
Nick Watkins	CB	6'0, 200	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9237	12	6.5	0.9%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Nicky Baratti	S					13	6.0	0.9%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Nick Coleman	CB	6'0, 190	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8585	13	3.5	0.5%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Avery Sebastian	SS	5'10, 200	Sr.	NR	0.9060
Shaun Crawford	NB	5'9, 180	RSFr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9456
Ashton White	CB	5'11, 190	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8625
Troy Pride Jr.	CB	5'11, 175	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9089
Donte Vaughn	DB	6'3, 190	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8949
Julian Love	DB	5'11, 175	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8711
Jalen Elliott	DB	6'0, 189	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8721
D.J. Morgan	DB	6'2, 190	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8711
Devin Studstill	FS	6'0, 190	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8710
Spencer Perry	SS	6'2, 204	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8671

8. This could be a young secondary

The Notre Dame secondary will feature a battle of old heads and newbies. Three seasoned seniors -- senior Max Redfield and corners Cole Luke and Devin Butler -- return, as does junior Nick Watkins. But the younger players might be hard to ignore.

Sophomore Tranquill, who suffered easily the most unnecessary injury of Notre Dame's 2015, appeared to solidify his spot in the starting lineup this spring, and out of nowhere, three-star freshman Devin Studstill was also earning reps with the first team in spring, ahead of Redfield. Plus, redshirt freshman Shaun Crawford could play a role at nickel back.

Kelly's 2016 recruiting class was DB-heavy, mostly because of the turonver when Redfield and company leave. But this year's freshmen could infiltrate the two-deep, giving this unit both higher upside and lower downside.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Tyler Newsome	6'3, 210	So.	55	44.5	8	7	19	47.3%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Tyler Newsome	6'3, 210	So.	84	61.6	21	5	25.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Justin Yoon	5'10, 190	So.	50-52	12-13	92.3%	3-4	75.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
C.J. Sanders	KR	5'8, 185	So.	28	22.9	1
Amir Carlisle	KR			8	19.5	0
C.J. Sanders	PR	5'8, 185	So.	25	7.3	1

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	46
Field Goal Efficiency	8
Punt Return Success Rate	83
Kick Return Success Rate	103
Punt Success Rate	95
Kickoff Success Rate	72

9. Close-game recipe:

My colleague Bud Elliott has a theory that while close-game results are random to some degree, the combination of quarterback play and good place-kicking is kind of like having a really good bullpen in baseball: They won't save you from all randomness, but they can tilt a few tight games in your favor.

Notre Dame went 4-2 in one-possession games in 2015, so maybe there's reason to believe that*. Kizer was awesome, and Justin Yoon was mostly great. A good college kicker will hit 80 percent of his under-40 kicks and probably 50 percent or so of his over-40 kicks. Yoon was at 92 and 75 percent, respectively.

The rest of the special teams unit was sketchy -- the coverage units suffered breakdowns, and while Sanders scored two return touchdowns, he was also woefully inconsistent. Still, Yoon's presence made this unit a net positive for the Irish.

* Granted, two of the close wins were due to opponent comebacks that turned easy wins into tight ones.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
4-Sep	at Texas	34	4.0	59%
10-Sep	Nevada	91	24.5	92%
17-Sep	Michigan State	22	6.7	65%
24-Sep	Duke	51	15.7	82%
1-Oct	vs. Syracuse	44	11.0	74%
8-Oct	at N.C. State	40	5.9	63%
15-Oct	Stanford	16	4.9	61%
29-Oct	Miami	30	10.2	72%
5-Nov	vs. Navy	66	14.3	80%
12-Nov	vs. Army	124	32.2	97%
19-Nov	Virginia Tech	32	10.9	74%
26-Nov	at USC	8	-4.0	41%
Projected wins: 8.6

Five-Year F/+ Rk	34.9% (11)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	10 / 8
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	-6 / -1.5
2015 TO Luck/Game	-1.7
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	53% (60%, 46%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	10.0 (0.0)

10. If they're successful in close games again...

...then Kelly's Irish will be a national title contender in 2016.

With only one projected top-15 opponent on the schedule, thanks to projected regression for Stanford and Michigan State, the Irish could follow last year's "only lose to top-10 teams" recipe into the Playoff.

Still, the home-road splits and a conservative No. 11 projection suggest this will be another season of heartburn and close games. Five Notre Dame contests are projected to finish with a one-possession margin.

There isn't a sure loss on the schedule. In fact, there's only one game in which Notre Dame has a worse than 59 percent chance of winning. But operating in close games will be critical. That means finding go-to receivers for the quarterback in times of need, continued quality from Yoon, and a defense that improves up front despite turnover and holds steady in the back despite freshmen on the two-deep.

All of the "ifs" are realistic, and while the defense still has plenty to prove, I'm not going to doubt Kelly after last year. If I had a poll vote -- and thank goodness I don't -- I would seriously consider Notre Dame in the preseason top five.