Bill Snyder's never-ending tour continues. Does he have another Kansas State rebound in him?

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year's team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year's roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

1. The Never-Ending Tour

Still, mortality hovers. We look for signs that the end of the road is coming. Every loss brings about a fresh wave of "This might be about it" rumbling, every change is viewed as a tea leaf to read. It is on one hand frustrating -- when you focus so much on what might be about to happen, you stop paying attention to what actually is -- and on the other, completely understandable. We know he's 75, we saw what happened the last time he left, and we wonder.

Regardless, 2015 probably isn't going to be Snyder's best season in Manhattan.

-- 2015 Kansas State preview

At nearly 75 years old, Bob Dylan still tours. If he had touched a guitar for the last time in 1983, his reputation would still be set. He will always be the guy who dragged folk music out of its comfort zone and, with his work from about 1963-74, wrote the book on songwriting and adaptation and inspired virtually every would-be songwriter with half-decent guitar skills. Still, he has spent nearly three decades on the Never Ending Tour, a constant trip around the globe, interpreting and reinterpreting his old songs, writing new ones, and, as proven by his 2015 release of a Frank Sinatra cover album, doing whatever the hell he wants to do. He has no interest in upkeep on his past-tense reputation -- he's still living in the present tense.

Bill Snyder turned 76 last fall. He's already been inducted into the College Football Hall of Fame, and he's still coaching. He pulled off and sustained perhaps the most legendary turnaround in this sport's history. He inherited a program that had gone 3-40-1 in the four years prior to his arrival and had managed just two winning seasons (6-5 and 6-5-1) in 35 years; in his third year on the job, he went 7-4. In his fifth year, he went 9-2-1 with the program's first bowl win. In his seventh year, the Wildcats finished 10-2 and seventh in the AP Poll. In his ninth year, KSU began a stretch of six 11-win seasons in seven years, the last of which delivered a conference title to Manhattan.

Snyder retired two years and just nine wins after his 2003 conference title; it appeared his magic had run out. But after three years on the sideline, during which KSU's stadium was renamed after him and his family, Snyder returned to once again turn the program around. And after a regrouping year in 2009, he already had the Wildcats playing conference-average ball by his second year. In 2011-12, KSU went 21-5. In 2014, the Wildcats won nine games and finished 18th in the polls -- the third ranked finish of his comeback and the 13th of his career.

Snyder has spoiled us, from his consistent personality (his Twitter feed is exactly what you think it would be, and it's wonderful -- "Don't forget your mothers tomorrow.") to his ability to constantly turn top-60 recruiting classes into top-30 product. He has no reason to continue touring, but here he is, attempting one final turnaround.

KSU wasn't very good in 2015. The 2014 squad was senior-heavy, and last year's team was even thinner than expected due to injuries at quarterback and in the secondary. After a 3-0 start, KSU lost six games in a row for the first time since Snyder's first year in Manhattan. The Wildcats rebounded to pull off unlikely home wins over Iowa State and West Virginia and reach a bowl for the sixth straight year, but the numbers weren't fooled. KSU ranked 84th in S&P+, easily the team's worst grade since 2009, Snyder's first year back.

KSU was still good at Snyder-esque things: The Wildcats spread opponents out well on offense and forced solo tackles, they were excellent at short-yardage defense and at getting to the passer on passing downs, and they were tremendous in special teams. But the down-to-down talent simply wasn't there, or wasn't experienced enough to deliver. Will a more experienced team tip the balance once more in KSU's favor? Whenever Snyder does end up retiring, does he send himself off with a better season than he did in his first retirement?

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 6-7 | Adj. Record: 4-9 | Final F/+ Rk: 81 | Final S&P+ Rk: 84
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
5-Sep	South Dakota	N/A	34-0	W	93%	100%	+10.9
12-Sep	at UTSA	111	30-3	W	81%	97%	-0.9	+10.0
19-Sep	Louisiana Tech	57	39-33	W	79%	73%	-5.8	-3.0
3-Oct	at Oklahoma State	40	34-36	L	39%	11%	-3.0	+5.5
10-Oct	TCU	19	45-52	L	39%	6%	-10.5	+2.5
17-Oct	Oklahoma	4	0-55	L	5%	0%	-52.9	-50.0
24-Oct	at Texas	68	9-23	L	12%	1%	-16.3	-10.0
5-Nov	Baylor	14	24-31	L	47%	9%	+11.2	+10.0
14-Nov	at Texas Tech	60	44-59	L	15%	1%	-9.3	-9.5
21-Nov	Iowa State	79	38-35	W	38%	27%	+2.7	-3.0
28-Nov	at Kansas	127	45-14	W	87%	100%	+14.8	+11.0
5-Dec	West Virginia	31	24-23	W	33%	4%	+14.9	+7.5
2-Jan	vs. Arkansas	11	23-45	L	23%	1%	-5.8	-11.0

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	28.0	75	30.4	83
Points Per Game	29.9	58	31.5	93

2. Good against bad

The hallmark of so many Snyder teams has been the ability to show as little as possible against lesser teams, then surprise and hinder really good teams. In 2011, K-State barely got by Eastern Kentucky, then beat Robert Griffin III and Baylor a month later. In 2012, they looked relatively unimpressive against North Texas and Iowa State and won at Oklahoma in between. In 2014, they barely got by two-win Iowa State, then nearly beat Auburn and won at Oklahoma again.

This was not the case in 2015. When the Wildcats had an athleticism edge, they milked it for everything it was worth and dominated. Against everybody else, they struggled.

• KSU vs. F/+ top 80:
  Average percentile performance: 33% (~top 85) | Record: 3-7 | Average score: Opp 39, KSU 28
• KSU vs. everybody else:
  Average percentile performance: 87% (~top 15) | Record: 3-0 | Average score: KSU 36, Opp 6

The main problem here was on the defensive side of the ball. Aside from a two-week glitch against Oklahoma and Texas, in which they scored just nine total points, the Wildcats otherwise averaged 34.5 points per game despite their typical slow pace. But after allowing just three combined points to South Dakota and UTSA to start the season, they allowed 36.4 points per game, 39.2 if you take out the Kansas game.

After ranking in the Def. S&P+ for four straight years from 2011-14, KSU plummeted to 83rd last season. The ceiling for this team is pretty low until the Wildcats figure some things out on that side of the ball.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.12	120	IsoPPP+	88.5	108
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	41.9%	64	Succ. Rt. +	99.4	74
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	30.4	81	Def. FP+	29.8	69
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.8	32	Redzone S&P+	106.5	49
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	20.1		ACTUAL	19	-1.1

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ (PBP) Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	113	97	74	108
RUSHING	86	55	26	75
PASSING	108	111	111	107
Standard Downs		88	69	98
Passing Downs		102	86	109

Q1 Rk	63	1st Down Rk	112
Q2 Rk	103	2nd Down Rk	100
Q3 Rk	110	3rd Down Rk	73
Q4 Rk	84

3. The offense was not blameless

Mind you, the offense still had plenty of issues. Four kick return touchdowns singlehandedly raised KSU's scoring averages by more than two points per game, and while the Wildcats were good at turning scoring opportunities into points, they didn't create as many opportunities as most teams in this offense-friendly conference. They also didn't play that many good defenses.

The Big 12 has proven more capable than its reputation would suggest at playing pretty good defense. TCU, Oklahoma State, Baylor, and Texas have all produced solid defenses within the last few years. But in 2015, this wasn't the case. Oklahoma ranked 16th in Def. S&P+, WVU ranked 28th ... and TCU was next at 58th. So the scoring averages were more inflated than normal.

Against the only two top-50 defenses KSU faced (OU, WVU), the Wildcats averaged 12 points per game and 3.1 yards per play. Against defense ranked between 50th and 75th, they averaged 28.8 and 5.1, respectively. Against defenses worse than that: 38.4 and 5.5.

KSU's run efficiency was excellent. Quarterback Joe Hubener and running backs Charles Jones and Justin Silmon were consistently able to carve out chunks of four or five yards at a time. But if you were able to corral the run game, there was no Plan B. The passing game stunk, and KSU created almost no big plays to bail itself out. The Wildcats' 147 gains of 10-plus yards ranked 107th in the country, their eight gains of 40-plus ranked 112th. It was five yards or nothing, and against decent defenses, that was usually nothing.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2016 Year

Rivals

247 Comp.

Comp

Att

Yards

TD

INT

Comp Rate

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/ Att.

Joe Hubener

6'5, 211

Sr.

NR

NR

131

275

1837

9

10

47.6%

21

7.1%

5.7

Kody Cook

30

66

447

4

3

45.5%

13

16.5%

4.8

Jesse Ertz

6'3, 205

Jr.

2 stars (5.4)

0.8337

Alex Delton

6'0, 201

RSFr.

3 stars (5.7)

0.8609

Skylar Thompson

6'2, 193

Fr.

4 stars (5.8)

0.8783

4. You have to be able to pass a little

Joe Hubener did a pretty decent impression of former KSU great Collin Klein last year. Unfortunately, it was the 2010 version of Klein. Klein was a sophomore that year, and while he proved adept at managing the read option and an efficient run game, Snyder didn't even slightly trust him to pass the ball. When throwing was a requirement, he subbed in Carson Coffman.

There was no Coffman last year. Jesse Ertz won the starting job, then got hurt on his second play against South Dakota. He has a history of knee injuries and was out for the season with another one. He was not alone. Freshman Alex Delton missed most of the year with injury, and at one point, four different QBs were hurt and receiver Kody Cook had to take snaps. His passer rating (113.3) was actually higher than Hubener's (107.3).

In his first three games, Hubener set the bar pretty high, but he couldn't maintain that pace in conference play.

• Hubener's first 3 games: 54% completion rate, 16.3 yards per completion, 4 TD, 0 INT
• Hubener's last 10 games: 46% completion rate, 13.2 yards per completion, 5 TD, 10 INT

Klein improved in 2011, by the way. For all we know, Hubener could too. But he'll have to overtake both Ertz and Delton, who are back and healthy (for now).

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Joe Hubener	QB	6'5, 211	Sr.	NR	NR	159	770	13	4.8	4.2	40.9%	6	3
Charles Jones	RB	5'10, 206	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7000	142	696	5	4.9	3.3	45.1%	2	1
Justin Silmon	RB	5'10, 191	So.	NR	NR	78	355	2	4.6	3.4	42.3%	0	0
Kody Cook	WR					54	229	2	4.2	5.0	33.3%	0	0
Winston Dimel	FB	6'1, 235	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8050	28	86	6	3.1	2.5	25.0%	1	1
Dalvin Warmack	RB	5'8, 187	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8606	12	64	0	5.3	4.3	41.7%	0	0
Glenn Gronkowski	FB					10	49	1	4.9	1.5	60.0%	0	0
Alex Delton	QB	6'0, 201	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8609	4	18	0	4.5	1.0	75.0%	0	0
Austin Katsorelos	FB	6'1, 229	Sr.	NR	NR
Alex Barnes	RB	6'1, 226	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8298
Tyler Burns	RB	5'11, 200	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8199
Mike McCoy	RB	6'2, 215	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8456

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Deante Burton	WR	6'2, 205	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8041	94	38	510	40.4%	28.7%	5.4	42.6%	34.0%	1.50
Kody Cook	WR					47	27	412	57.4%	14.3%	8.8	42.6%	51.1%	1.50
Dominique Heath	WR	5'9, 175	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7983	43	28	313	65.1%	13.1%	7.3	51.2%	48.8%	1.37
Kyle Klein	WR					42	19	288	45.2%	12.8%	6.9	47.6%	42.9%	1.51
Andre Davis	WR					25	12	166	48.0%	7.6%	6.6	40.0%	44.0%	1.31
Charles Jones	RB	5'10, 206	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7000	17	12	139	70.6%	5.2%	8.2	70.6%	23.5%	3.11
Zach Reuter	WR	6'3, 190	So.	NR	0.7000	17	6	47	35.3%	5.2%	2.8	41.2%	23.5%	0.79
Winston Dimel	FB	6'1, 235	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8050	13	8	261	61.5%	4.0%	20.1	46.2%	61.5%	3.28
Glenn Gronkowski	FB					8	5	76	62.5%	2.4%	9.5	87.5%	62.5%	1.34
Steven West	WR	6'1, 200	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8111	5	3	42	60.0%	1.5%	8.4	60.0%	40.0%	2.23
Cody Small	TE	6'5, 241	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8289	4	0	0	0.0%	1.2%	0.0	75.0%	0.0%	0.00
Dayton Valentine	TE	6'4, 262	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7600	3	0	0	0.0%	0.9%	0.0	33.3%	0.0%	0.00
Denzel Goolsby	WR	5'11, 190	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8269
Isaiah Zuber	WR	6'0, 180	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8407
Byron Pringle	WR	6'2, 212	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8576
Corey Sutton	WR	6'2, 200	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8362
Nick Lenners	TE	6'4, 235	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8215
D.J. Render	WR	5'11, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8209

5. Wanted: big plays

Granted, losing Cook means having to replace both your No. 2 WR and No. 2 QB, but at first glance, it appears the skill positions return a decent amount of efficiency options. Running back Charles Jones has not hinted at even the slightest bit of explosiveness in his time in Manhattan, but he's turned into a steady five-yard guy, and sophomore Justin Silmon was his statistical clone last year. Sophomore Dominique Heath could turn into a viable, efficient slot receiver type as well.

What we're not sure about, once again, is big plays. Barring a breakout from someone like sophomore Dalvin Warmack, the run game is what it is, but when you're that efficient running the ball, you should be able to work play action to your favor. Hubener couldn't, but better quarterbacking (either from a more experienced Hubener or someone else) could lead to a big year for senior Deante Burton. Burton took on a huge load of targets last year but was dreadfully all-or-nothing. He had his moments -- five catches for 135 yards against WVU, for instance -- but 38 catches in 94 targets is just awful.

You never want to rely on newcomers to save the day, but mid-three-star JUCO transfer Byron Pringle was in Manhattan for spring ball and thrived. He caught 28 passes for 432 yards at Butler CC last year, and he caught a 73-yard bomb from Hubener in the spring game. Pringle's emergence overshadowed solid spring play from redshirt freshmen Isaiah Zuber and Denzel Goolsby. Expectations for him are now uncomfortably high, but if he were able to ease into the No. 1 role and average 8 yards per target or so, everything else could fall in line.

If KSU is producing a few more big plays, and the QB situation is more stable, the Wildcats can move on to Worry No. 3 for the offense: a rebuilt line. It played a role in the run game's efficiency, and four of five starters are now gone.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	104.8	3.04	3.31	41.5%	65.1%	18.5%	73.8	6.5%	10.9%
Rank	44	43	57	33	72	48	108	97	114

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Cody Whitehair	LT					13	51	2015 2nd All-Big 12
Boston Stiverson	LG					9	28
Matt Kleinsorge	RT					13	26
Luke Hayes	RG					13	25
Dalton Risner	C	6'5, 300	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8681	13	13
Terrale Johnson	RG	6'1, 303	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7000	4	4
Reed Bergstrom	C					0	0
Aaron Bennett	RT					0	0
Will Ash	LG	6'3, 325	Sr.	NR	NR	0	0
Bryce Fitzner	LT	6'7, 292	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8333	0	0
A.J. Allen	OL	6'6, 300	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8372	0	0
Ajahne Brager	LG	6'3, 303	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8212	0	0
Reid Najvar	C	6'4, 290	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8032	0	0
Alec Ruth	OL	6'7, 300	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8264	0	0
Scott Frantz	LT	6'5, 275	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8450
Adam Holtorf	OL	6'4, 279	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8119
Tyler Mitchell	RG	6'4, 301	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7939
Breontae Matthews	RT	6'6, 315	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8507
Abdul Beecham	RT	6'3, 285	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8271
Blake Hickey	OL	6'4, 285	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8340

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.30	85	IsoPPP+	94.5	87
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	48.2%	120	Succ. Rt. +	96.1	80
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	32.5	18	Off. FP+	32.7	17
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.6	82	Redzone S&P+	95.0	87
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	20.6		ACTUAL	16.0	-4.6

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ (PBP) Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	106	86	80	87
RUSHING	63	95	79	103
PASSING	121	68	81	62
Standard Downs		93	85	92
Passing Downs		62	52	73

Q1 Rk	98	1st Down Rk	76
Q2 Rk	88	2nd Down Rk	79
Q3 Rk	37	3rd Down Rk	85
Q4 Rk	81

6. Bend, then break

KSU has proven that you can win a lot of games with a bend-don't-break defense. The Wildcats for quite a while mastered the art of forming an umbrella, giving you as many five-yard passes as you desire, and waiting to pounce on any mistake you make.

In 2015, KSU bent and broke. The efficiency ratings were poor, but they were accompanied by far too many big plays. Granted, pace and conference didn't help, but the Wildcats allowed 221 gains of 10-plus yards, 122nd in the country.

KSU was indeed good in short-yardage situations (eighth in power success rate), and the pass rush was excellent in obvious-pass situations (fifth in passing downs sack rate), but the Wildcats were awful on first-and-10, and little else mattered. After two good weeks against inferior opponents, KSU was gashed repeatedly the rest of the year.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	100.2	3.14	3.53	42.3%	51.0%	18.5%	121.6	5.0%	13.1%
Rank	60	99	96	106	8	87	32	65	5

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Will Geary	DT	6'0, 297	Jr.	NR	NR	12	40.0	5.3%	7.0	3.5	0	0	2	0
Travis Britz	DT					13	36.5	4.9%	11.0	4.0	0	2	0	0
Jordan Willis	DE	6'5, 250	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8109	13	32.5	4.3%	15.0	9.5	0	3	4	0
Tanner Wood	DE	6'5, 263	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8847	13	29.5	3.9%	4.0	2.0	0	1	0	0
Marquel Bryant	DE					13	28.5	3.8%	6.5	5.5	0	1	1	0
Craig Settles, Jr.	DT	6'5, 310	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	NR	2	4.0	0.5%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Matt Seiwert	DT	6'3, 285	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7856	13	3.0	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	2	0	0
Davis Clark	DE	6'2, 255	Jr.	NR	NR	5	2.5	0.3%	2.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Aulelio Olomua	DE	6'5, 245	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8447
C.J. Reese	DE	6'1, 265	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8264
Mitch Copeland	DT	6'0, 260	So.	NR	NR
Reggie Walker	DE	6'2, 239	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8625
Trey Dishon	DT	6'2, 317	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8194
Ray Price	DT	6'2, 290	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8106
Bronson Massie	DE	6'4, 220	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8315
Jordon Robertson	DT	6'3, 255	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8112

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Elijah Lee	LB	6'3, 218	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8612	13	73.5	9.8%	7.5	5.0	3	1	1	0
Charmeachealle Moore	LB	6'0, 221	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8000	12	51.0	6.8%	5.5	3.0	0	0	1	0
Will Davis	LB	6'0, 224	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8524	13	47.0	6.3%	0.5	0.5	1	2	0	0
Sam Sizelove	LB	6'3, 217	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8478	13	13.5	1.8%	0.5	0.0	0	0	1	0
Colborn Couchman	LB	6'2, 218	Sr.	NR	NR	10	10.0	1.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jayd Kirby	LB	6'2, 220	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	NR	11	7.0	0.9%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Trent Tanking	LB	6'2, 220	Jr.	NR	NR	8	6.0	0.8%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Logan Thompson	LB					5	2.5	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Cameron Morgan	LB	5'10, 194	Sr.	NR	NR
Elijah Sullivan	LB	6'0, 209	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8835
Justin Hughes	LB	6'1, 210	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8166
Chase Johnston	LB	6'3, 220	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8166
Jimmy McKinney	LB	6'1, 225	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8130

7. Havoc potential

A little more aggressiveness might look good on this front seven. The return of end Jordan Willis gives KSU one of the Big 12's most proven pass rushers, and he has nice complementary pieces in lienbackers Elijah Lee and Charmeachealle Moore, tackles Will Geary and Craig Settles Jr., and end Tanner Wood. Redshirt freshmen Reggie Walker and Trey Dishon had a nice spring, and overall the speed of this front seven seems pretty solid. Putting these piece into attacking positions might pay off.

That really isn't the mantra of this defense, though, and for all of the potential speed here, the down-to-down consistency was dreadful. Too many five-yard gains turned into 10-yard gains, and when tackle Will Geary was suspended for the bowl game, Arkansas took whatever yards it wanted. (The Razorbacks probably would have done so anyway.)

Despite a couple of losses up front, the overall level of returning production is excellent. Lee, Moore, and Wood were all first-time starters, and their return, plus that of most of the second string, should lead to improvement. But after ranking 95th in Rushing S&P+, you need a lot of improvement.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Dante Barnett (2014)	FS	6'1, 193	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8076	13	66.5	9.4%	4	0	3	8	0	0
Donnie Starks	NB	6'0, 180	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7000	13	50.5	6.7%	2	1	0	4	0	0
Sean Newlan	FS	6'2, 204	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7444	13	50.0	6.7%	1	0	0	0	1	0
Kaleb Prewett	FS					8	46.5	6.2%	1	1	0	1	0	0
Nate Jackson	SS					10	43.0	5.7%	0	0	0	6	0	0
Kendall Adams	SS	6'1, 213	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8311	12	37.5	5.0%	3.5	1	0	0	0	0
Morgan Burns	CB					12	35.5	4.7%	1	0	1	10	1	0
Duke Shelley	CB	5'9, 160	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8757	8	28.0	3.7%	1	0	0	7	0	0
Danzel McDaniel	CB					4	17.5	2.3%	0	0	0	1	0	1
Cedric Dozier (California)	CB	5'10, 180	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8923	7	8.5	1.1%	0.5	0	0	2	0	0
Colby Moore	DB	6'1, 197	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7483	9	6.5	0.9%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jesse Mack	SS	6'0, 180	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8247	5	5.0	0.7%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Brogan Barry	DB	6'2, 195	Jr.	NR	NR	5	3.5	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ryan Mack	NB	5'9, 175	Jr.	NR	NR	12	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Tevin Geddis	CB	5'11, 185	Sr.	NR	NR
Cre Moore	DB	6'0, 175	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8306
Nate Guidry Jr.	DB	6'0, 189	Jr.	NR	0.7700
Johnathan Durham	CB	6'0, 180	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7652
D.J. Reed	DB	5'11, 190	Jr.	NR	NR
Jordan Noil	DB	6'2, 183	So.	NR	0.7994

8. Keeping your starters on the field

I thought the pass defense would be a strength for KSU, and technically it was, if only relatively speaking. The Wildcats were helpless against good passing offenses -- TCU, Oklahoma, Baylor, and Arkansas: 88-for-121 for 1,371 yards, 11 TDs, three INTs, and a 192.9 passer rating -- but they had their hands tied behind their backs from the start: ace safety Dante Barnett missed almost the entire season with injury. Then top returning corner Danzel McDaniel got hurt a month later. The top four returning contributors missed a combined 25 games.

From the "injuries hurt in the present tense and help in the future tense" perspective, this year's secondary should be decent. Barnett's back, and fellow safeties Donnie Starks and Sean Newlan (the only two regulars who didn't miss time) got far more experience than expected last year, as did Duke Shelley, the star of the 2015 recruiting class. Shelley and fellow sophomore Kendall Adams combined for 4.5 tackles for loss and seven passes defensed. And now Cal graduate transfer Cedric Dozier and JUCO D.J. Reed join the mix as well.

There are more answers at safety than cornerback (which I guess is preferable considering how much time KSU spends in the nickel defense), and CB depth could still be an issue. But I would expect KSU to rise quite a bit over last year's No. 65 Passing S&P+ ranking.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Nick Walsh	5'11, 212	Jr.	67	41.6	8	25	13	56.7%
Mitch Lochbihler	6'7, 240	Jr.	4	44.5	1	2	2	100.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Ian Patterson	6'0, 211	Sr.	65	60.4	15	1	23.1%
Jack Cantele			7	39.4	0	0	0.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Jack Cantele			29-29	9-10	90.0%	3-4	75.0%
Matthew McCrane	5'10, 165	Jr.	15-15	6-6	100.0%	1-1	100.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Morgan Burns	KR			34	33.5	4
Dominique Heath	KR	5'9, 175	So.	4	11.5	0
Dominique Heath	PR	5'9, 175	So.	21	7.2	0
Andre Davis	PR			2	0.0	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	9
Field Goal Efficiency	10
Punt Return Success Rate	76
Kick Return Success Rate	4
Punt Success Rate	52
Kickoff Success Rate	63

9. *Yawn* another great special teams unit

Kansas State lost one of the best return men in the country in 2014 (Tyler Lockett) and somehow got even more dangerous in the return game in 2015. Granted, punt returns were pretty mediocre, but Morgan Burns fielded 34 kickoffs last fall and managed to take four of them to the house. That is an astounding ratio, and along with solid place-kicking, it allowed KSU to once again grade out well in special teams. It's what Bill Snyder teams do.

Burns is now gone, but while Dominique Heath was relatively unimpressive in returns last year, it's just so hard to worry about KSU in this regard, isn't it?

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
2-Sep	at Stanford	16	-16.8	17%
17-Sep	Florida Atlantic	100	13.2	78%
24-Sep	Missouri State	NR	45.0	100%
1-Oct	at West Virginia	33	-10.7	27%
8-Oct	Texas Tech	43	-1.0	48%
15-Oct	at Oklahoma	4	-23.4	9%
22-Oct	Texas	34	-3.7	42%
29-Oct	at Iowa State	71	-2.7	44%
5-Nov	Oklahoma State	23	-7.1	34%
19-Nov	at Baylor	13	-17.9	15%
26-Nov	Kansas	112	18.0	85%
3-Dec	at TCU	31	-11.2	26%
Projected wins: 5.2

Five-Year F/+ Rk	22.7% (25)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	63 / 61
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	-3 / 0.5
2015 TO Luck/Game	-1.3
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	70% (77%, 62%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	4.3 (1.7)

10. A lot to prove

I don't think anyone was going to be too surprised if, at the end of 2015, Snyder hung up the coach sneakers one last time. While it was easy to expect a drop-off, the fall was more precipitous than expected.

Injuries had a lot to do with that, though, and last year's dings have created more experience for this season.

While special teams might regress a bit, and a lack of offensive line experience is a concern, I find myself assuming KSU's run offense, pass offense, run defense, and pass defense will all improve. The question is, will they improve enough? Aside from run efficiency and returns, KSU didn't really have any distinct strengths in 2015; is there enough raw talent to make a move back into the S&P+ top 50?

Since S&P+ doesn't care about injuries, projections -- a No. 67 ranking and 5.2 wins -- are pretty pessimistic. I'm going to assume the Wildcats figure out a way to get back to 6-6 or so, but after falling so far a year ago, Snyder suddenly has quite a bit to prove in his 25th year in charge.