Can Texas' Charlie Strong pull off a long-term rebuild in a short-term world?

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year's team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year's roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

1. Texas is in total disarray

On Sunday evening, September 4, Texas will host Notre Dame in what might be the most narrative-heavy game of the season. The Fighting Irish have their own. Are they a Playoff-caliber team? Do they have the receivers they need? Et cetera.

But the speed with which the momentum shifts from one side to the other for Texas is staggering, and the result of this game will take us down one of two paths: Texas is falling apart, or Texas is almost back.

We learned last year you can switch from path to path. Texas was Almost Back after Jerrod Heard's brilliant performance against Cal, upsetting Oklahoma, upsetting Baylor, and a strong recruiting class. And Charlie Strong was Almost Toast after shellackings at the hands of Notre Dame, TCU, and Iowa State and a home loss to Texas Tech.

Eventually, you cross the point of no return. And with Houston head coach Tom Herman's name floating around, this is a big year for Strong.

It's a bad year to be breaking in a new offensive coordinator and, potentially, another freshman quarterback, but here we are. Texas and Strong head into 2016 with no proof that any of their issues -- quarterback play, offensive inconsistency, a run defense that was inexplicably bad -- are rectified.

The Longhorns have to prove themselves all over again, and Strong has to prove the up-tempo spread offense he brought in will be allowed to run properly. For a defense-minded coach used to slower offenses, that is sometimes an issue.

Mack Brown spent the final three years of his career attempting to salvage both his job and his program after a stunning 2010 collapse. He succeeded to some degree for two years, then, to use a word he has all but trademarked during his two-year broadcasting stint, he lost his momentum. The downward spiral began again in 2013, and it has continued under Strong.

As incredible as it is for anybody who watched college football a decade ago, Texas -- with all of the money in the world and its own damn network -- is 41-35 over the last six seasons. The Longhorns have ranked in the S&P+ top 20 just once in that span, fewer times than conference mates Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and TCU and fewer times than former conference mates Missouri and Texas A&M.

While Strong inherited the dying embers of Brown's program and can hardly be blamed for the Longhorns' slide, through two years, he hasn't stopped it. And now, in his third year, he's pulling what can be viewed as a coach-on-the-hot-seat panic move and completely changing his offense. Such a move could work -- think about what happened when TCU's Gary Patterson made such changes two years ago (even if his seat wasn't hot) -- but frequently doesn't.

2. Texas is building something

Take the horns off the helmet, and our perceptions of Strong's tenure change dramatically. Because this is such a high-pressure job, and because you're NEVER supposed to have to rebuild at Texas, we have been waiting on Strong to simply flip a switch.

It doesn't work that way. Strong was brought in to change a stale program. For all of his recruiting rankings and CEO-type strengths, Brown had let his roster grow undisciplined. Hiring Strong was the "dating the opposite of your ex" move, and while those can work, they don't work overnight. They usually don't work within two years.

Strong sent a lot of players packing when he arrived, and a few more left of their own volition. That created a young, thin squad that played inconsistent football. A redshirt freshman quarterback averaged 16 pass attempts per game, freshmen and sophomores rushed 24 times per game, were targeted with 10 passes per game, started 25 games on the offensive line, and accounted for 33 tackles per game on defense, 53.4 percent of the defense's total.

Of course a team that young is going to be inconsistent. That the good moments were as strong as they were could be a tremendous sign. Plus, Strong just signed another excellent recruiting class (that is to be expected at Texas, but we're taking "Texas" out of the equation for a second), and his offensive shake-up could be viewed as the simple righting of a wrong.

Strong told reporters this spring that he should have moved toward a Big 12-style spread offense all along. I'm not sure I agree -- there can be great value in zigging when others are zagging, especially when your background has made you less adept at zagging -- but at least the defense gets to practice against the type of offense it will see in the fall.

If you look at this as a rebuild and not as Texas attempting to reassert its dominance, it appears to be humming along nicely. If the offensive identity settles in, and a defense that was desperately young gels a bit further, you could be looking at 2017 as a time when all the pieces click.

If Strong gets a fourth year, that is.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 5-7 | Adj. Record: 6-6 | Final F/+ Rk: 68 | Final S&P+ Rk: 72
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
5-Sep	at Notre Dame	7	3-38	L	6%	0%	-24.3	-25.0
12-Sep	Rice	123	42-28	W	87%	99%	-4.3	-1.5
19-Sep	California	29	44-45	L	64%	48%	-4.2	+5.5
26-Sep	Oklahoma State	40	27-30	L	36%	7%	-3.2	+0.5
3-Oct	at TCU	19	7-50	L	2%	0%	-27.3	-28.0
10-Oct	vs. Oklahoma	4	24-17	W	80%	63%	+35.1	+24.5
24-Oct	Kansas State	81	23-9	W	90%	99%	+16.3	+10.0
31-Oct	at Iowa State	79	0-24	L	7%	0%	-20.2	-30.5
7-Nov	Kansas	127	59-20	W	83%	100%	+17.8	+10.5
14-Nov	at West Virginia	31	20-38	L	43%	9%	+2.9	-9.5
26-Nov	Texas Tech	60	45-48	L	41%	20%	+2.4	-4.5
5-Dec	at Baylor	14	23-17	W	84%	71%	+30.5	+26.5

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	28.1	73	28.4	68
Points Per Game	26.4	83	30.3	87

3. The broadest range imaginable

When the narratives are spanning such a huge range, it would make sense that the team itself did, too.

Take out three games, and Texas played like a high-potential team in 2015, one that went 5-4 in part because of two devastating special teams miscues (a missed PAT against California and a dropped punt snap against Oklahoma State).

But those three games -- total duds against Notre Dame, TCU, and Iowa State in which they were outscored by a 112-10 margin -- count. And that muddies the picture.

• Texas' three duds (ND, TCU, Iowa State):
  Average percentile performance: 5% (~bottom 10) | Record: 0-3 | Yards per play: Opp 6.3, UT 3.7 (-2.6)
• Texas' other nine games:
  Average percentile performance: 68% (~top 40) | Record: 5-4 | Yards per play: UT 6.3, Opp 5.4 (+0.9)

I'm not sure I've seen a team combine five performances at the 80th percentile or higher with three below the 10th in the same season. I haven't been working with the "percentile performances" idea for too long, but the range is staggering.

After the dud against Notre Dame, Strong demoted offensive co-coordinators Joe Wickline and Shawn Watson and promoted receivers coach Jay Norvell to the play-calling chair. He also started giving Jarrod Heard the lion's share of the snaps at quarterback. The result was often excellent and occasionally dreadful.

A lot of can be written off as Things Young Teams Do. But how much? And how many more ups and downs come with a new offense?

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.33	32	IsoPPP+	95.7	88
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	39.6%	91	Succ. Rt. +	93.7	100
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	30.5	85	Def. FP+	29.5	61
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.7	43	Redzone S&P+	91.0	108
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	14.1		ACTUAL	14	-0.1

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	92	95	100	88
RUSHING	17	52	70	36
PASSING	118	114	118	110
Standard Downs		53	76	48
Passing Downs		117	113	118

Q1 Rk	86	1st Down Rk	86
Q2 Rk	118	2nd Down Rk	49
Q3 Rk	97	3rd Down Rk	108
Q4 Rk	41

4. Change requires commitment

Step 1: New, spread-oriented coach comes in and gets guys working more quickly than they thought possible.

Step 2: Everybody talks about renewed energy.

It's easy to grow cynical about these things because we hear this so damn much -- a few new teams attempt Step 1 every year, and everybody goes through Step 2 each March -- but sometimes "energy" and "tempo" aren't just spring buzzwords.

Strong succeeded at Louisville because his defense eventually came around (the Cardinals ranked 11th in Def. S&P+ in his last year in town) and because he had a wonderful quarterback in Teddy Bridgewater. The offense could have been dragged down by a lack of tempo and creativity, and the Cardinals still only ranked 50th and 47th, respectively, in Off. S&P+ in 2012-13. But Bridgewater and a solid supporting cast were able to make enough plays to overcome that.

Without a Bridgewater, Strong's and Watson's offense was going to struggle. And when Strong overthought and created a staff of mismatched parts -- Watson from Louisville, Wickline from Oklahoma State (given the coordinator title mainly to avoid having to pay Oklahoma State), then Norvell from Oklahoma in 2015 -- he ended up with an identity-free offense.

At the very least, there's an identity now. Strong brought Sterlin Gilbert and line coach Matt Mattox from Phillip Montgomery's Tulsa staff (Montgomery was Art Briles' coordinator at Balyor through 2014) and running backs coach Anthony Johnson from the same role at Toledo. The spread principles seem to be aligned, even if new receivers coach Charlie Williams is an old-school NFL guy.

Simply having an identity and sticking to it is a huge part of succeeding offensively. Texas was a hot mess in 2014-15. We'll see if the new identity sticks.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Jerrod Heard	6'2, 203	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9653	92	159	1214	5	5	57.9%	28	15.0%	5.5
Tyrone Swoopes	6'4, 254	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9188	47	93	537	4	1	50.5%	2	2.1%	5.3
Kai Locksley	6'4, 188	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8907
Matthew Merrick	6'3, 200	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8263
Shane Buechele	6'1, 191	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9210

5. It also requires a quarterback

Tyrone Swoopes is a big, efficient runner and decent decision-maker with an arm that just doesn't quite do what he needs it to do. Heard is a smaller, smoother athlete and equally efficient runner who throws a prettier ball but couldn't make decisions quickly enough to avoid sacks in 2015.

Both have shown plenty of potential, but neither appeared any better at the end of 2015 than months or years earlier.

Enter Shane Buechele. The four-star son of a former MLB player (Steve Buechele) reported for spring practice and showed command and understanding of Gilbert's offense. He was able to run the offense at the right tempo, and while we overreact to spring games, his performance far outshined Swoopes'. (Heard was out with injury.)

It would be surprising if Buechele wasn't the starter from the first week on. He will almost certainly struggle -- if nothing else, freshmen often struggle on the road at first, and every road opponent on the schedule is well-versed in defending an up-tempo spread -- but he's got the tools, and he might best fit the identity that Texas is finally trying to create.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Johnathan Gray	RB					123	489	3	4.0	3.8	29.3%	0	0
Jerrod Heard	QB	6'2, 203	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9653	111	736	3	6.6	5.5	53.2%	3	2
D'Onta Foreman	RB	6'0, 238	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8383	95	681	5	7.2	8.0	46.3%	1	1
Tyrone Swoopes	QB	6'4, 254	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9188	72	480	12	6.7	5.4	54.2%	1	1
Chris Warren III	RB	6'2, 255	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9605	71	470	4	6.6	7.7	42.3%	0	0
Kirk Johnson	RB	6'0, 191	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8866	9	54	0	6.0	11.8	33.3%	1	0
Daje Johnson	WR					6	28	0	4.7	2.6	66.7%	2	1
Roderick Bernard	WR	5'9, 172	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8792
Kyle Porter	RB	5'10, 207	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9035

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Daje Johnson	SLOT					55	37	427	67.3%	22.8%	7.8	58.2%	45.5%	1.43
John Burt	WR-Z	6'3, 189	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9358	52	28	457	53.8%	21.6%	8.8	51.9%	28.8%	2.78
Armanti Foreman	WR-X	5'11, 209	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9448	28	11	182	39.3%	11.6%	6.5	60.7%	28.6%	2.21
Marcus Johnson	SLOT					21	12	118	57.1%	8.7%	5.6	71.4%	33.3%	1.56
Andrew Beck	TE	6'3, 244	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8665	16	8	77	50.0%	6.6%	4.8	50.0%	31.2%	1.27
Caleb Bluiett	TE	6'3, 266	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8797	11	8	167	72.7%	4.6%	15.2	63.6%	63.6%	2.08
Johnathan Gray	RB					10	6	84	60.0%	4.1%	8.4	50.0%	60.0%	1.27
Jacorey Warrick	SLOT	5'11, 172	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9107	10	6	35	60.0%	4.1%	3.5	60.0%	30.0%	1.14
D'Onta Foreman	RB	6'0, 238	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8383	9	5	64	55.6%	3.7%	7.1	22.2%	33.3%	1.74
Chris Warren III	RB	6'2, 255	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9605	8	5	13	62.5%	3.3%	1.6	37.5%	12.5%	0.91
Lorenzo Joe	WR-X	6'3, 207	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9219	7	4	73	57.1%	2.9%	10.4	14.3%	42.9%	2.36
Ryan Newsome	SLOT	5'8, 166	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9088	7	4	23	57.1%	2.9%	3.3	14.3%	28.6%	1.02
Roderick Bernard	WR	5'9, 172	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8792	1	1	4	100.0%	0.4%	4.0	100.0%	0.0%	0.00
Jake Oliver	WR	6'3, 222	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9265
Dorian Leonard	WR-Z	6'4, 208	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8634
Blake Whiteley	TE	6'5, 252	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8685
DeAndre McNeal	WR-X	6'2, 227	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8963
Collin Johnson	WR	6'6, 212	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9189

6. From potential into production

John Burt averaged a robust 8.8 yards per target as a freshman receiver. D'Onta Foreman averaged 7.2 yards per carry, Chris Warren III averaged 6.6, and Kirk Johnson averaged 6.0. Four-Star Running Back A and Four-Star Receiver B are in the pipeline (insert whichever names you like from a long list of candidates).

In last year's Tulsa offense, three players carried the ball at least 70 times, and five were targeted at least 40 times. Texas will want to snap the ball quickly and distribute the ball to as many different players as possible. And there is massive potential within the skill corps. Plus, new guidance might be welcome for a line that returns four players with starting experience.

All that's left is to turn potential into top-line production. All the impressive averages above were generated from secondary roles. If Foreman and Burt can generate the same averages as No. 1 weapons, and if receivers like junior Armanti Foreman and senior Jacorey Warrick can thrive in this new system, Texas' offense will hum. [Update: sophomore receiver DeAndre McNeal was suspended indefinitely and will transfer.]

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	101.4	3.06	3.32	43.9%	71.9%	18.4%	53.3	8.6%	17.3%
Rank	67	38	56	14	34	47	127	117	128

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Sedrick Flowers	LG					11	25
Kent Perkins	RT	6'5, 320	Sr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9801	10	24
Taylor Doyle	C					12	23
Marcus Hutchins	LT					2	15
Connor Williams	LT	6'6, 288	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8773	12	12
Patrick Vahe	RG	6'3, 326	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9396	10	10
Jake Raulerson	C					0	4
Tristan Nickelson	RT	6'9, 316	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7839	3	3
Elijah Rodriguez	C	6'5, 307	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8166	0	0
Terrell Cuney	RG	6'2, 298	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8632	0	0
Jake McMillon	LG	6'3, 294	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8489	0	0
Alex Anderson	RG	6'3, 314	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8398	0	0
Brandon Hodges	LG	6'4, 318	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8717	0	0
Garrett Thomas	LT	6'6, 274	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8641
Zach Shackelford	C	6'3, 296	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8408
Jean Delance	OL	6'5, 299	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9437
Denzel Okafor	OL	6'4, 295	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8998

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.11	6	IsoPPP+	115.2	24
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	46.5%	112	Succ. Rt. +	101.8	57
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	29.2	86	Off. FP+	29.8	70
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.6	83	Redzone S&P+	103.0	57
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	20.8		ACTUAL	25.0	+4.2

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	107	39	57	24
RUSHING	112	78	65	73
PASSING	74	20	45	12
Standard Downs		42	63	34
Passing Downs		26	57	18

Q1 Rk	28	1st Down Rk	40
Q2 Rk	71	2nd Down Rk	41
Q3 Rk	85	3rd Down Rk	37
Q4 Rk	25

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	98.5	3.42	3.27	42.7%	66.7%	15.1%	136	7.8%	11.3%
Rank	74	124	71	112	69	116	16	6	15

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Naashon Hughes	FOX	6'4, 239	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8635	12	48.5	6.5%	9.0	5.5	0	1	1	0
Paul Boyette Jr.	NT	6'3, 314	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9027	12	31.5	4.3%	8.0	3.0	0	2	0	0
Poona Ford	DT	5'11, 313	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8994	12	30.5	4.1%	6.0	2.5	0	1	1	0
Hassan Ridgeway	DT					11	30.0	4.0%	6.5	3.5	0	0	0	2
Desmond Jackson	NT					11	25.0	3.4%	2.5	1.5	0	0	0	1
Shiro Davis	DE					11	23.5	3.2%	5.5	2.0	0	0	2	0
Bryce Cottrell	DE	6'2, 266	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8547	12	21.5	2.9%	6.5	4.0	0	1	0	0
Charles Omenihu	DE	6'6, 262	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8771	11	16.0	2.2%	1.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Breckyn Hager	FOX	6'3, 230	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8236	9	14.5	2.0%	0.0	0.0	1	0	0	0
Quincy Vasser	DE	6'4, 246	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8681	7	5.5	0.7%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Derick Roberson	FOX					9	5.0	0.7%	2.0	2.0	0	0	1	0
Chris Nelson	NT	6'1, 301	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8489	8	5.0	0.7%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Jake McMillon	DT				NR	12	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jordon Elliott	DT	6'3, 322	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9440
Chris Daniels	DT	6'4, 328	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9222
Andrew Fitzgerald	DE	6'5, 255	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9178
D'Andre Christmas-Giles	DT	6'2, 292	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.8920

7. A strangely bad run defense

For as impressive as Strong's résumé was as a longtime defensive assistant, his defensive track record as a head coach hasn't been as impressive as you might think. In four years at Louisville, his Cardinals ranked 39th, 41st, 60th, and 11th in Def. S&P+; in two years at Texas, the 'Horns have ranked seventh and 68th.

When Strong and coordinator Vance Bedford have the right pieces, they can put together a defense as good as anyone's. But they have struggled to overcome issues with talent (early at Louisville) or experience (in 2015 at Texas). Most do.

To the extent that Texas' drastic defensive drop-off last year was an experience issue, that should be rectified. Texas returns its top three linemen (and seven of the top 10), four of five linebackers, and 10 of 11 defensive backs. A vast majority of those returnees are now sophomores and juniors; Texas might be starting as few as one or two seniors.

Experience aside, Texas was startlingly bad against the run last year. That probably wasn't all because of experience. The Longhorns ranked 116th in stuff rate and 112th in opportunity rate, and while those are not adjusted for opponent in the tempo-happy Big 12, Rushing S&P+ (78th) and Adj. Line Yards (74th) are.

The returning trio of Naashon Hughes, Paul Boyette Jr., and Poona Ford combined for 23 tackles for loss up front, and blue-chip sophomore Malik Jefferson added seven more. But the depth of play-making was shaky, and when the Longhorns weren't making a play, they were allowing one: They gave up 92 rushes of 10-plus yards last year, 114th in the country. (On the plus side, only five of those rushes gained 30-plus, 23rd. Safety play appeared to be a strength.)

Inconsistency up front was disappointing even while acknowledging youth. That will need to change in 2016.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Peter Jinkens	WLB					11	60.5	8.2%	9.5	6.5	0	0	0	0
Malik Jefferson	MLB	6'3, 238	So.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9929	11	49.0	6.6%	7.0	2.5	0	3	1	1
Anthony Wheeler	WLB	6'2, 232	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9613	12	29.0	3.9%	1.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Timothy Cole	MLB	6'1, 240	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9159	11	23.5	3.2%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Edwin Freeman	WLB	6'1, 232	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9264	5	10.5	1.4%	3.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Dalton Santos	LB	6'2, 257	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9171
Cameron Townsend	LB	6'0, 222	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9023
Demarco Boyd	MLB	5'11, 240	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8670
Jeffrey McCulloch	LB	6'2, 234	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9678
Erick Fowler	OLB	6'1, 240	Fr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9627

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Duke Thomas	CB					12	50.0	6.7%	3	0	1	5	0	0
Holton Hill	CB	6'2, 195	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9600	12	43.0	5.8%	1	0	1	4	0	0
Dylan Haines	SS	6'1, 201	Sr.	NR	NR	11	42.0	5.7%	3	1	5	3	0	0
Jason Hall	FS	6'3, 219	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8438	12	42.0	5.7%	0.5	0	2	2	1	0
Davante Davis	CB	6'2, 199	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8960	12	32.5	4.4%	1	0	1	7	0	0
John Bonney	SS	6'1, 192	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9029	12	26.5	3.6%	2	1	0	1	1	0
Kris Boyd	CB	6'0, 192	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9531	12	12.5	1.7%	0	0	0	0	1	0
P.J. Locke III	NB	5'10, 204	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8625	12	12.0	1.6%	1	0	0	1	1	0
DeShon Elliott	FS	6'1, 215	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9202	6	12.0	1.6%	0	0	2	1	1	0
Kevin Vaccaro	SS	5'8, 182	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8166	10	12.0	1.6%	0	0	0	1	1	0
Antwuan Davis	CB	6'0, 200	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9359	12	7.0	0.9%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Bryson Echols	CB					6	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Sheroid Evans	CB	6'1, 194	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9358
Brandon Jones	DB	6'0, 195	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9786
Eric Cuffee	CB	6'0, 187	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9017

8. All the components of a great pass defense

Losing ace blitzer Peter Jinkens won't help a pass rush that ranked 16th in Adj. Sack Rate a year ago. But with the return of ends Naashon Hughes and Bryce Cottrell (combined: 9.5 sacks), plus three potentially awesome sophomore linebackers, I cannot bring myself to worry. The pass rush should be fine, and it will get help from a sticky, aggressive secondary that played beyond its years last fall.

Texas ranked 20th in Passing S&P+ in 2015 despite the fact that six of the top nine players in the unit were freshmen. Losing corner Duke Thomas will hurt, but with sophomores Holton Hill, Davante Davis, and Kris Boyd back, that will only hurt so much. Meanwhile, safeties Dylan Haines, Jason Hall, John Bonney, P.J. Locke, and DeShon Elliott will give Texas one of the deepest, most exciting secondaries in the country. Texas' pass defense will be good again in 2016 and otherworldly in 2017.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Michael Dickson	6'2, 213	So.	77	41.3	5	32	20	67.5%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Nick Rose			63	63.1	47	3	74.6%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Nick Rose			38-39	9-10	90.0%	4-7	57.1%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Daje Johnson	KR			22	24.0	0
Kris Boyd	KR	6'0, 192	So.	9	20.6	0
Daje Johnson	PR			21	10.7	1
Duke Thomas	PR			2	27.5	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	41
Field Goal Efficiency	42
Punt Return Success Rate	20
Kick Return Success Rate	113
Punt Success Rate	63
Kickoff Success Rate	23

9. A special teams rebuild

Despite the two plays we all remember (the game-turning gaffes against Cal and OSU), Texas' special teams unit was mostly fine.

Of course, that's all past-tense because with the loss of kicker/kickoffs guy Nick Rose and return man Daje Johnson, the Longhorns are starting over a bit. Goodness knows there should be plenty of potential return men, but we'll see about the kicking.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
4-Sep	Notre Dame	11	-4.0	41%
10-Sep	UTEP	126	29.6	96%
17-Sep	at California	49	0.9	52%
1-Oct	at Oklahoma State	23	-6.9	35%
8-Oct	vs. Oklahoma	4	-12.8	23%
15-Oct	Iowa State	71	11.4	75%
22-Oct	at Kansas State	67	3.7	58%
29-Oct	Baylor	13	-3.7	42%
5-Nov	at Texas Tech	43	-0.8	48%
12-Nov	West Virginia	33	3.5	58%
19-Nov	at Kansas	112	18.2	85%
25-Nov	TCU	31	3.0	57%
Projected wins: 6.7

Five-Year F/+ Rk	14.4% (40)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	12 / 11
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	11 / 6.6
2015 TO Luck/Game	+1.7
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	80% (79%, 81%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	5.2 (-0.2)

10. I have no idea ... again

There have been two themes to every Texas preview I've written since 2011:

1. Texas seems to have the pieces you need to turn things around.
2. I have no idea if the Longhorns will turn things around.

For a couple of years, it looked like the turnaround was well underway. And then it wasn't.

In a vacuum, I would say Strong's project is unfolding at a normal pace. Last year's freshmen and sophomores are now sophomores and juniors, the staff changes on offense might result in an offensive identity, and last year's high-upside moments had an awfully high upside. Given another couple of years, he could have everything he needs, where he needs it.

But that requires another couple of years. And if Texas loses to a potentially awesome Notre Dame in the opener, the vultures will circle all over again, seemingly as they have since Strong's second game.

A Texas' head coach, Strong is 11-14. That carries weight that a normal rebuild would not. This has been the worst start to a Texas head coach's tenure since Dana Bible went 3-14-1 in 1937-38.

Given infinite time, Strong would almost certainly establish what he was hired to establish. But we'll see if the clock runs out first.