Memphis has a new football coach and a brand new level of expectation in 2016

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year's team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year's roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

1. Transition

It's amazing what a good hire can do. In 2012 Memphis brought Justin Fuente in to clean up a nasty mess, and he needed just four years to work miracles. The Tigers improved from 3-21 in 2010-11 to 7-17 in 2012-13 to 19-7 in 2014-15.

Fuente inherited a job that few wanted and made it a mid-major destination. When he came to town, Memphis had just averaged 20,078 in home attendance in a stadium that holds more than 60,000 (for now); in 2015, the Tigers averaged 43,802. The Liberty Bowl went from decrepit to quaint, the program from "hard job" to "Hmm, could Memphis make a Big 12 case?"

Memphis' resurrection went beyond Fuente, though.

Fuente: "I felt like the people here, the powers that be, the people who support the program, were ready to jump into this thing with both feet. You've got to have great support; you can't do it yourself. The prominent people here in the community, the university as a whole, everybody has to be on board."

Winning five games in three years forces you figure out what you want to be. With conference realignment in full swing, and some lucrative moves on the table, Memphis decided to try to get its act together.

Contributions and revenue have doubled over the last decade, and while the Liberty Bowl will never be a new facility, everything about the program seems to have been freshened up a bit.

Now comes the biggest test. When you make a great hire at the mid-major level, your reward is having to make another one. Fuente gave Memphis a fourth year even though he had suitors following his 2014 breakthrough; that allowed the program an extra year of building infrastructure and showing fans a quality product. But he left to succeed Frank Beamer at Virginia Tech this offseason, and after waiting to see if Fuente's former defensive coordinator Barry Odom was available -- he became Missouri's head coach instead -- the program honed in on another up-and-comer: Mike Norvell.

Norvell had spent enough time under Todd Graham that it was easy to forget about him. He moved from graduate assistant to receivers coach/passing game coordinator for Graham at Tulsa, served as offensive co-coordinator in Graham's lone season at Pitt, then took over as sole coordinator in four years at Arizona State.

Over the last three years, Norvell proved adaptable and resourceful. ASU ranked 13th in Off. S&P+ in 2013, maintained a solid No. 27 ranking in 2014 despite quarterback injuries, then held steady at 31st despite turnover last fall. The Sun Devils were disappointing in 2015, but it was mostly because of defensive regression.

On paper, hiring Norvell makes a ton of sense. He is a Central Arkansas grad, and he spent four years at nearby AAC rival Tulsa. He knows the region, and he's spent nine seasons under a pretty good teacher in Graham. And he inherits an infinitely better situation than Fuente did. If he is able to maintain Fuente's breakthrough, and if the basketball program is able to regain its footing, then Memphis could be positioned to either become one of the strongest programs in the mid-major universe or make itself relatively attractive if the Big 12 ever actually decides to expand instead of hemming and hawing about it on a yearly basis.

Making a good hire changes so much for your program. Making two in a row can change even more. No pressure, Coach Norvell.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 9-4 | Adj. Record: 9-4 | Final F/+ Rk: 41 | Final S&P+ Rk: 55
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
5-Sep	Missouri State	N/A	63-7	W	94%	100%	+38.9
12-Sep	at Kansas	127	55-23	W	79%	100%	+19.9	+18.5
19-Sep	at Bowling Green	25	44-41	W	53%	33%	-2.6	0.0
24-Sep	Cincinnati	72	53-46	W	48%	45%	-1.6	-3.0
2-Oct	at South Florida	44	24-17	W	78%	86%	-3.4	-2.0
17-Oct	Ole Miss	5	37-24	W	70%	56%	+21.6	+23.5
23-Oct	at Tulsa	95	66-42	W	69%	90%	+16.2	+13.5
31-Oct	Tulane	119	41-13	W	88%	100%	+1.5	-4.0
7-Nov	Navy	21	20-45	L	14%	0%	-28.5	-32.5
14-Nov	at Houston	26	34-35	L	62%	52%	+3.5	+6.0
21-Nov	at Temple	45	12-31	L	14%	1%	-19.1	-20.5
28-Nov	SMU	106	63-0	W	98%	100%	+42.7	+41.5
30-Dec	vs. Auburn	33	10-31	L	5%	0%	-24.5	-18.5

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	35.1	27	29.3	73
Points Per Game	40.2	11	27.3	67

2. The road got bumpy

In the end, 9-4 almost felt disappointing. Memphis won its final seven games of 2014 and began 2015 with eight more victories. Following road wins over Bowling Green and USF and a 13-point romp over a fantastic (though banged-up at the time) Ole Miss team, the Tigers reached 15th in the AP poll.

For one reason or another, though, the Tigers faltered down the stretch.

• First 8 games:
  Average percentile performance: 72% (~top 35) | Record: 8-0
• Last 5 games:
  Average percentile performance: 39% (~top 80) | Record: 1-4

The Tigers still played well enough to nearly beat Houston on the road -- they took a 34-14 lead early in the fourth quarter before allowing an unlikely three-touchdown comeback -- and put together an almost perfect performance in humiliating SMU. But in between, they got thumped at home by Navy and on the road by Temple; then, with Fuente out the door, they were horrible against Auburn in the Birmingham Bowl. After posting a strong 146.6 passer rating against Ole Miss in October, quarterback Paxton Lynch finished his career with just a 62.4 against a lesser Auburn defense.

The season's finish was disappointing and undid some of the incredible gains of the 15-game winning streak, but Memphis still finished the season 55th in S&P+, only a slight step down from the No. 49 finish in 2014. And while Lynch, the 26th pick in the 2016 NFL Draft, is gone and both the offensive line and receiving corps got thinned out a bit by graduation, most of the defense is back, as are the top four running backs.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.31	43	IsoPPP+	108.1	42
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	44.4%	34	Succ. Rt. +	102.9	61
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	26.3	7	Def. FP+	28.1	40
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	5.0	21	Redzone S&P+	105.2	53
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	17.9		ACTUAL	14	-3.9

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	18	44	61	42
RUSHING	55	96	83	103
PASSING	18	28	44	28
Standard Downs		41	61	34
Passing Downs		51	61	61

Q1 Rk	46	1st Down Rk	51
Q2 Rk	45	2nd Down Rk	44
Q3 Rk	39	3rd Down Rk	50
Q4 Rk	88

3. A Norvell-Long defense

Todd Graham, Norvell's primary mentor, is an aggressive coach. He attacks your tendencies and deficiencies and tries to put as much speed as possible on the field.

"Everything we do is designed to attack what the opponent is being taught. For example, look at what Gus does and what we do offensively. [When they line up], the primary key will tell the defender that the ball's getting run to the left. Instead, it's getting thrown to the right. [...]

"Our offense, defense, and special teams have to match and blend on each other. Our offensive coordinator doesn't get to come in and do whatever he wants to do. We adapt to our philosophy, the talents of the players, and what they can execute. We're an attacking offense and an attacking defense."

Every coach is his own person, but you have to figure that, since Norvell stayed with Graham for a decade, he probably shares quite a few of the same football values.

Norvell's new offensive coordinator Chip Long also comes from the Graham coaching tree; he spent four seasons as Graham's tight ends coach and recruiting coordinator at ASU. He also studied under Bobby Petrino for two years at Louisville and two at Arkansas. That's a pretty good offensive pedigree.

Norvell's ASU offense operated at a tempo fast for even the Pac-12, spread opponents out pretty well, and passed to set up the run. The footprint was quite similar to Memphis' in 2015, actually, and it should fit in just fine in the AAC. The question for 2016 is pretty simple: Do the Tigers have a quarterback they trust to pass the ball?

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Paxton Lynch					296	444	3778	28	4	66.7%	17	3.7%	7.9
Clay Holgorsen					14	20	177	1	1	70.0%	0	0.0%	8.9
Jason Stewart	6'3, 205	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7757
Brady Davis	6'4, 205	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8451
Riley Ferguson	6'4, 190	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8848
David Moore	6'2, 185	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8463

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Doroland Dorceus	RB	5'10, 215	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7994	155	659	8	4.3	3.3	37.4%	4	2
Jarvis Cooper	RB	6'1, 245	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8386	91	389	5	4.3	2.7	35.2%	0	0
Sam Craft	RB	6'0, 210	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8220	82	333	5	4.1	4.0	36.6%	2	1
Paxton Lynch	QB					70	358	2	5.1	3.4	41.4%	0	0
Jamarius Henderson	RB	5'11, 210	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8451	60	320	4	5.3	5.0	43.3%	2	2
Mose Frazier	WR					17	119	2	7.0	16.1	29.4%	3	1
Darius Lee	RB					10	34	0	3.4	2.1	40.0%	0	0
Anthony Miller	WR	5'11, 190	Jr.	NR	0.7900	9	54	2	6.0	3.5	55.6%	1	0
Tevin Jones	WR					9	45	1	5.0	6.0	44.4%	1	1
Robert Davis	RB					9	42	0	4.7	7.8	33.3%	0	0
Tearris Wallace	RB	5'10, 220	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7556	7	31	0	4.4	2.7	42.9%	0	0
Mechane Slade	ATH	5'8, 165	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7973
Darrell Henderson	RB	5'9, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8059
Patrick Taylor, Jr.	RB	6'3, 216	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8043

4. The shaky state of the backfield

The passing game masked a pretty significant weakness for Memphis in 2015: The Tigers couldn't really run the ball. They ranked 96th in Rushing S&P+, with four running backs posting average efficiency numbers with almost no big-play presence whatsoever. They managed only four rushes of 30-plus yards all season; only nine FBS offenses had fewer.

All four of last year's backs return, for better or worse. Senior Sam Craft (a part-time receiver) and juniors Doroland Dorecus and Jarvis Cooper have all hinted at solid efficiency numbers (all three had an opportunity rate over 40 percent in 2014) but none have a history of explosiveness. [Update: Cooper intends to transfer, and is no longer listed on the team's roster.] Sophomore Jamarius Henderson showed big-play flashes against Kansas (11 carries, 77 yards) and Tulsa (14 carries, 112 yards) but carried only 35 times for 131 yards the rest of the season.

Unless Henderson breaks out, the backfield might be about the same in 2016. And the line has to replace all-conference tackle Taylor Fallin, plus four others who accounted for a combined 11 starts. So it's not a guarantee that the run game will improve. That could put pressure on a new quarterback to thrive.

Barring something unforeseen, it appears that new quarterback will be Riley Ferguson. The former Tennessee signee spent 2015 at Coffeyville Community College and completed 68 percent with 35 touchdowns to six interceptions. He was 15-for-20 for 172 yards and three scores in Memphis' spring game. He's passing every test he can, but the real tests begin this fall.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Mose Frazier	WR					95	71	833	74.7%	21.0%	8.8	63.2%	50.5%	1.61
Phil Mayhue	WR	6'3, 210	Jr.	NR	0.7000	79	51	670	64.6%	17.5%	8.5	65.8%	54.4%	1.40
Anthony Miller	WR	5'11, 190	Jr.	NR	0.7900	66	47	694	71.2%	14.6%	10.5	62.1%	54.5%	1.74
Tevin Jones	WR					41	22	316	53.7%	9.1%	7.7	56.1%	43.9%	1.69
Alan Cross	TE					41	25	229	61.0%	9.1%	5.6	68.3%	43.9%	1.20
Roderick Proctor	WR	5'11, 175	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8153	29	25	335	86.2%	6.4%	11.6	58.6%	58.6%	1.79
Jae'Lon Oglesby	WR	5'11, 175	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8950	25	20	167	80.0%	5.5%	6.7	60.0%	44.0%	1.40
Doroland Dorceus	RB	5'10, 215	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7994	17	11	217	64.7%	3.8%	12.8	41.2%	52.9%	2.40
Daniel Montiel	TE	6'3, 240	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7585	14	10	155	71.4%	3.1%	11.1	85.7%	64.3%	1.67
Sam Craft	RB	6'0, 210	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8220	14	8	114	57.1%	3.1%	8.1	57.1%	28.6%	2.96
Jamarius Henderson	RB	5'11, 210	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8451	8	7	90	87.5%	1.8%	11.3	50.0%	62.5%	1.89
Daniel Hurd	WR	6'2, 220	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7600	7	5	84	71.4%	1.5%	12.0	71.4%	71.4%	0.88
Frank Wims	WR					4	3	57	75.0%	0.9%	14.3	100.0%	75.0%	2.08
Jarvis Cooper	RB	6'1, 245	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8386	4	3	29	75.0%	0.9%	7.3	25.0%	75.0%	0.69
Robby Young	TE	6'4, 255	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7333
Tony Pollard	WR	5'11, 200	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8094
Pop Williams	WR	5'9, 165	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8288
Jahod Booker	WR	5'11, 185	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8075

5. A loaded receiving corps

As long as the running game isn't a liability, forcing lots of second- and third-and-long passing, Ferguson should enjoy the weapons he has lined up wide.

Juniors Phil Mayhue, Anthony Miller, and Roderick Proctor all posted fantastic catch and success rates in 2015 (while averaging a strong 13.8 yards per catch), and sophomore Jae'Lon Oglesby is a former four-star recruit. Proctor caught an incredible 25 of 29 passes before missing the final three games of the year. Miller, meanwhile, caught fire midseason, catching five passes for 156 yards against Cincinnati, 10 for 132 against Ole Miss, and five for 106 against Tulsa.

Craft is a versatile weapon, as well. Go-to guy Mose Frazier is gone, but depth was the strength of the 2015 receiving corps, and a lot of it is back. Despite the new QB, the run game has a lot more to prove than the passing game.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	94.9	2.71	3.42	38.2%	72.0%	20.1%	145.8	1.6%	6.9%
Rank	98	96	47	78	32	82	28	8	56

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Taylor Fallin	LT					11	35	2015 1st All-AAC
Gabe Kuhn	RG	6'4, 295	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7333	12	25
Ryan Mack	RT					3	22
Tyler Uselton	LG					5	18
Drew Kyser	C	6'5, 300	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8348	12	12
Trevon Tate	RT	6'4, 280	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8117	10	10
Micah Simmons	RG					2	10
Christopher Roberson	LG	6'7, 330	Sr.	NR	NR	9	9
Michael Stannard	C					1	8
Zach Collins	OL	6'4, 290	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7644	0	2
Jace Neville	LT	6'6, 290	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7713	0	0
Lio Lafaele	OL	6'4, 290	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8656
Harneet Gill	OL	6'7, 265	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8093

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.29	82	IsoPPP+	96.8	76
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	42.8%	81	Succ. Rt. +	101.9	56
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	31.0	44	Off. FP+	29.0	90
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	5.0	112	Redzone S&P+	101.5	66
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	20.5		ACTUAL	22.0	+1.5

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	77	74	56	76
RUSHING	38	48	57	40
PASSING	106	92	64	100
Standard Downs		83	56	89
Passing Downs		57	64	50

Q1 Rk	53	1st Down Rk	46
Q2 Rk	30	2nd Down Rk	82
Q3 Rk	66	3rd Down Rk	66
Q4 Rk	47

6. A Chris Ball defense

Memphis will be Arizona State East in 2016. New defensive coordinator Chris Ball also accompanies Norvell east after spending four seasons as Graham's defensive co-coordinator and DBs coach.

One assumes, then, that Memphis will attack as much as ASU did last year. The Tigers had to replace a lot of pieces last year -- half their front seven, every starter in the secondary, and the defensive coordinator -- and lost their identity a bit. They attacked the run pretty well and stiffened in short yardage, but they allowed 48 passes of 20-plus yards, 101st in the country. That was perhaps predictable.

Experience won't be an issue this time around. Seven of eight primary defensive linemen, five of seven linebackers, and four of the top five defensive backs all return. The starting lineup could be junior- and senior-heavy, and Ball might have everything he needs to attack, attack, attack.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	109.8	2.56	3.22	36.0%	46.9%	22.0%	93.9	4.7%	6.3%
Rank	33	20	64	39	3	40	76	76	86

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Donald Pennington	DT	6'2, 295	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7804	13	30.0	4.1%	5.0	2.0	0	1	1	0
DeMarco Montgomery	DE	6'3, 245	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7694	12	23.0	3.1%	5.5	2.0	0	0	0	1
Christian Johnson	DE	6'5, 255	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7683	13	20.0	2.7%	6.5	4.0	0	1	0	0
Ricky Hunter	DE					12	20.0	2.7%	3.5	2.0	0	1	1	0
Michael Edwards	DT	6'2, 295	Sr.	NR	NR	13	15.0	2.0%	2.0	0.5	0	0	1	0
Ernest Suttles	DE	6'5, 265	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8325	12	14.0	1.9%	2.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Latarius Brady	DE	6'2, 280	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8094	13	10.5	1.4%	2.0	1.0	0	0	1	0
Jared Gentry	DT	6'2, 325	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8348	11	7.5	1.0%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Cortez Crosby	DT	6'1, 270	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7752	7	3.0	0.4%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Isadore Outing	DE	6'4, 265	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8169
Emmanuel Cooper	DE	6'1, 275	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8156
Peyton Jones	DE	6'6, 235	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8038
John Tate	DE	6'4, 258	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8646
Jacoby Hill	DE	6'3, 211	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7991

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Leonard Pegues	MLB					12	62.5	8.5%	7.0	1.0	1	0	1	1
Shareef White	WLB	6'1, 235	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8458	13	57.0	7.8%	7.0	1.0	0	0	1	0
Wynton McManis	SLB					13	57.0	7.8%	5.5	2.5	0	0	0	0
Genard Avery	LB	6'1, 255	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7785	11	47.5	6.5%	6.5	3.0	0	0	0	0
Jackson Dillon	SLB	6'6, 245	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7656	13	30.5	4.1%	6.0	0.0	0	0	0	1
Noah Robinson	LB	6'4, 225	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7882	12	20.5	2.8%	0.0	0.0	0	3	1	0
Curtis Akins	MLB	6'2, 230	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8291	8	12.0	1.6%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Lenard Harden	WLB	5'11, 205	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7633	13	4.5	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Darian Porter	SLB	6'3, 230	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7733
Joseph Prevost	LB	6'1, 220	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8216
Tim Hart	LB	6'1, 220	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8578
Nehemiah Augustus	LB	6'0, 205	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8366

7. The line is still loaded

At Arizona State in 2015, opponents threw non-stop because while the Sun Devils' run defense was as strong as ever, the pass defense was a sieve despite a decent pass rush. It was basically an extreme version of the problem Memphis faced: The Tigers ranked 48th in Rushing S&P+ but 92nd in Passing S&P+.

While the pass defense still has something to prove, the run defense should expect to improve further. Fuente and Norvell signed a few exciting young prospects in the last two recruiting classes, but they'll probably have to wait their turn behidn the hierarchy of DeMarco Montgomery, Christian Johnson, Ernest Suttles, and Latarius Brady at end and Donald Pennington, Michael Edwards, and monstrous sophomore Jared Gentry at tackle. And it could be the same story at linebacker, where Shareef White (a great run defender), Genard Avery, Jackson Dillon, and Noah Robinson all return.

The Memphis defense benefited a bit from injuries luck in 2015 -- only one regular (linebacker Curtis Akins) missed serious time -- and that can usually result in regression the next year. But there are enough experienced pieces here that it appears Memphis could withstand some injuries without massive drop-off. The secondary is less of a guarantee in this regard, but I have very few concerns about the front six/seven.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Reggis Ball	FS					13	50.5	6.9%	2.5	0	5	5	0	1
Dontrell Nelson	CB	6'1, 180	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7873	13	44.5	6.1%	1	1	2	1	0	0
Chris Morley	SS	5'11, 195	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7100	13	41.5	5.6%	1	0	1	4	0	0
Chauncey Lanier	CB	5'10, 185	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7300	13	36.5	5.0%	2	1	0	5	1	0
Arthur Maulet	CB	5'11, 190	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8059	13	36.5	5.0%	0	0	2	7	0	1
Dion Witty	FS					10	28.5	3.9%	1.5	0	1	5	1	0
DaShaughn Terry	SS					13	21.5	2.9%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Jamil Collins	CB	5'11, 170	Jr.	NR	0.7900	11	6.5	0.9%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Phillip Sumpter	DB	5'11, 200	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7894	12	6.0	0.8%	3	2	0	0	0	0
Ty Northern	DB	6'1, 190	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7000	12	4.5	0.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Tyler Charrette	DB	6'1, 220	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8159
Kam Prewitt	DB	5'11, 175	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7892
Anthony Young	DB	6'0, 200	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7811
Shaun Rupert (Missouri)	S	6'1, 195	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8084
Jonathan Cook	S	6'0, 198	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8126
Josh Perry	CB	6'3, 183	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8578
Tyrez Lindsey	S	6'2, 187	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8202
Thomas Pickens	S	6'2, 200	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8128
Jacobi Francis	CB	5'9, 160	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7954

8. Fewer big plays would be great

The pass defense had its moments in 2015. Against SW Missouri State, Kansas, Tulane, and SMU, Memphis allowed just a 45 percent completion rate and an 82.7 passer rating. But none of those teams could actually pass. Against teams with some level of offensive competence, the pass defense wilted: Memphis allowed a 62 percent completion rate and 155.8 passer rating in the other nine games. The pass rush could have helped out a bit more, but a rearranged secondary just couldn't get the job done.

Again, experience won't be an issue, particularly at cornerback. Seniors Dontrell Nelson, Chauncey Lanier, and Arthur Maulet are all small but athletic and got their hands on some passes last year. And strong safety Chris Morley has been around as well. Volatile play-maker Reggis Ball is gone, as are part-time contributors Dion Witty and DaShaughn Terry, so safety could be an issue.

The list of potential breakthrough candidates at both corner and safety is pretty long, though: junior Phillip Sumpter, sophomore spring star Kam Prewitt, former Alabama cornerback Jonathan Cook, former Missouri safety Shaun Rupert, mid-three-star freshman Josh Perry, etc. This unit has depth in terms of athleticism; we'll just see if it can avoid breakdowns a little bit better than last year's unit.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Spencer Smith	6'1, 195	Jr.	43	47.1	4	11	8	44.2%
Nick Jacobs	6'1, 195	Jr.	14	36.0	3	6	11	121.4%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Jake Elliott	5'10, 165	Sr.	99	64.4	74	3	74.7%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Jake Elliott	5'10, 165	Sr.	63-63	13-17	76.5%	10-11	90.9%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Jae'Lon Oglesby	KR	5'11, 175	So.	25	23.5	0
Sam Craft	KR	6'0, 210	Sr.	11	19.8	0
Roderick Proctor	PR	5'11, 175	Jr.	19	7.4	1
Mose Frazier	PR			4	7.0	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	6
Field Goal Efficiency	19
Punt Return Success Rate	31
Kick Return Success Rate	73
Punt Success Rate	31
Kickoff Success Rate	2

9. Special teams is the least of Memphis' concerns

It would be a surprise if Memphis didn't again have one of the best special teams units in the AAC. Spencer Smith's got a spectacular punting leg (even if he outkicks coverage from time to time), Jake Elliott's touchback rate on kickoffs was one of the highest in the country, Roderick Proctor is a steady punt returner, and Jae'Lon Oglesby is an explosive, if not incredibly efficient, kick returner. Elliott was a bit scattershot on field goal attempts, but he offset a subpar 77 percent on field goals under 40 yards by making 91 percent of his longer field goals. Lots to like here.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
3-Sep	SE Missouri State	NR	25.2	93%
17-Sep	Kansas	112	16.0	82%
24-Sep	Bowling Green	60	0.2	50%
1-Oct	at Ole Miss	7	-22.4	10%
6-Oct	Temple	61	0.4	51%
14-Oct	at Tulane	122	11.2	74%
22-Oct	at Navy	66	-5.9	37%
29-Oct	Tulsa	93	8.5	69%
5-Nov	at SMU	98	3.2	57%
12-Nov	South Florida	41	-3.7	42%
18-Nov	at Cincinnati	70	-4.9	39%
25-Nov	Houston	53	-0.8	48%
Projected wins: 6.5

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-11.1% (85)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	74 / 88
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	8 / 2.6
2015 TO Luck/Game	+2.1
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	54% (40%, 68%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	7.6 (1.4)

10. Start fast

Memphis is projected a conservative 77th in S&P+, primarily because of the loss of Lynch and (to a lesser degree) Mose Frazier. The defense might have the pieces to rebound after falling from 23rd to 73rd in Def. S&P+, and if Riley Ferguson really is the answer at QB, the Tigers' ceiling gets a lot higher.

Taking the projection as it stands, though, it creates a metric ton of tossups. Memphis is given between a 39 and 57 percent chance of winning in seven games -- par for the course in the increasingly parity-driven AAC -- with four likely wins and one likely loss.

There could be plenty of plot twists here, especially late in the season (five of the final six games fall into this tossup range), but if Norvell can get things situated out of the gates, a good season is likely. In the first half of the season come three likely wins and two tossups: visits from retooling Bowling Green (whom I don't like as much as its projection) and Temple. A 5-1 start is conceivable, but 3-3 isn't off the table. The former would ignite an AAC title run, the latter would cause a scramble for a bowl bid.

Because of the job Fuente did, Norvell doesn't have to be as much of a home run hire. But he has his work cut out for him in attempting to maintain a program with actual expectations and faint hopes for a conference upgrade.