Matt Campbell was a great hire for Iowa State, but a brutal schedule will define his debut

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year's team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year's roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

1. Unique vs. good

Steven Godfrey and I started Podcast Ain't Played Nobody last August. It's rewarding and fun, and it seems to have developed a pretty dedicated audience.

While maintaining a weekly podcast, you start to pick up themes, and one of the steadiest at PAPN is the idea of hard jobs. No job is particularly easy in college football, but hard jobs remain hard forever. You are constantly swimming upstream, and while you may succeed for a while, all it takes is a lapse, and you're plummeting.

Iowa State isn't the hardest job in FBS, but it makes the list. Over the last two decades, we've seen you can have temporary success (Dan McCarney went 9-3 in 2000, and ISU spent part of 2002 in the AP top 10) and that you can pull memorable upsets. Just ask 2011 Oklahoma State.

It is really, really difficult to maintain. McCarney went 22-9 from 2000 through the first half of 2002, then lost 19 of 24. He rallied to win 12 of 16, then lost 10 of 13. Paul Rhoads eked out three bowl bids in his first four years; while he never won more than seven games in a season, this was still a decent baseline. But then he went 8-28.

Iowa State has won more than seven games in a season just seven times in nearly 120 years: twice in the 1900s (while beating teams like Coe, Morningside, Grinnell, and Omaha Light Guards), four times in the 1970s, and once since 1978. The Cyclones are further removed from the Big 12's primary talent base (Texas) than anybody else in the conference (recent addition WVU aside, anyway) and generate the least revenue. ISU is a fine school with fun fans and renovated facilities, but you have to be great to be good in Ames.

When the conversation drifts to Hard Jobs on PAPN, it's usually followed by a discussion of how you win in these jobs. How creative do you have to get? How important is it to zig when everyone else is zagging? Kansas went 12-1 in 2007 with Mark Mangino's efficiency-based spread offense, something that was still a little bit of a novelty. But now that everyone in the Big 12 is spreading things out, would it make more sense to load up on power? Go with full-on option football, maybe? Call Navy's Ken Niumatalolo?

This can work beautifully. Cranky old Paul Johnson has been to two Orange Bowls at Georgia Tech and didn't miss the postseason in his first seven years. Stanford went from Hard Job to power program because of recruiting, competition, and big-boy football.

You don't have to look for a guy who's tactically different, though. Bill Snyder didn't do anything particularly unique when building Kansas State. James Franklin wasn't exactly running Chip Kelly's offense when he won nine games in back-to-back years at Vanderbilt.

Uniqueness can mean charisma and organization. That's what Iowa State's hoping. In hiring Matt Campbell from Toledo to replace Rhoads, the Cyclones didn't bring the triple option; they brought in a guy with solid recruiting chops, energy, a track record, and Mount Union in his DNA.

Larry Kehres built a dynasty at Mount Union over three decades, winning 11 Division III national titles between 1993 and 2012. When he retired in 2012, Union had won 21 consecutive conference titles. His son Vince succeeded him and has been to three D3 title games in a row, winning one. His nephew Erik Raeburn has won 135 games in 16 years at D3's Coe and Wabash and, in a truly fearless, confident move, just took the Savannah State job.

Campbell was a defensive lineman for Kehres from 1999-2002, then took over as Union's offensive coordinator at the age of 25. He moved up to the MAC, serving as an assistant at Bowling Green and Toledo, then taking the Toledo OC job under Tim Beckman in 2010. When Beckman left following 2011, Toledo was so impressed that it named Campbell head coach at age 32. And all he did was win nine games three times in four years.

At Toledo, Campbell was able to outrecruit most of the MAC, at least until WMU's P.J. Fleck came along. That's not an advantage he's going to have in Ames. But let's put it this way: Over the last six years, Toledo graded out better than ISU in S&P+ five times. With fewer resources and no power-conference draw, Campbell was able to build and/or maintain a team that outperformed the Cyclones.

Campbell doesn't have to generate top-20 classes to improve Iowa State. And the bar isn't incredibly high. There's a good chance he'll clear it.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 3-9 | Adj. Record: 6-6 | Final F/+ Rk: 79 | Final S&P+ Rk: 70
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
5-Sep	Northern Iowa	N/A	31-7	W	83%	99%	+15.4
12-Sep	Iowa	38	17-31	L	38%	7%	-9.8	-10.0
19-Sep	at Toledo	20	23-30	L	68%	43%	+2.3	+0.5
3-Oct	Kansas	127	38-13	W	90%	100%	-2.7	+9.0
10-Oct	at Texas Tech	60	31-66	L	17%	1%	-24.0	-22.5
17-Oct	TCU	19	21-45	L	26%	1%	-14.8	-3.0
24-Oct	at Baylor	14	27-45	L	19%	0%	+7.3	+19.0
31-Oct	Texas	68	24-0	W	95%	100%	+20.2	+30.5
7-Nov	at Oklahoma	4	16-52	L	15%	0%	-17.0	-10.5
14-Nov	Oklahoma State	40	31-35	L	72%	62%	+5.5	+10.0
21-Nov	at Kansas State	81	35-38	L	65%	73%	-2.7	+3.0
28-Nov	at West Virginia	31	6-30	L	13%	0%	-9.6	-10.0

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	28.8	66	28.3	66
Points Per Game	25.0	93	32.7	97

2. They either had the horses, or they didn't

Rhoads got a lot of mileage out of his upsets -- 9-7 over 10-win Nebraska in 2009, 28-21 at Texas in 2010, 37-31 over unbeaten Oklahoma State in 2011, three wins over teams with winning records in 2012. But those dried up.

Granted, ISU beat 7-6 Iowa and 9-4 Toledo in 2014, but that represented a quarter of the win total in his final three seasons in charge. And in his last campaign, ISU needed to punch its weight class to have even the slightest chance.

• ISU vs. F/+ top 60:
  Avg. percentile performance: 34% (~top 85) | Record: 0-8 | Avg. score: Opp 42, ISU 22 | Yards per play: Opp 7.0, ISU 5.2 (-1.8)
• ISU vs. F/+ No. 61+:
  Avg. percentile performance: 83% (~top 25) | Record: 3-1 | Avg. score: ISU 32, Opp 15 | Yards per play: ISU 5.8, Opp 4.3 (+1.5)

Against lesser opponents, ISU's defense was frisky and effective, forcing passing downs, then attacking effectively. But against teams with a pulse, that was not the case. A dreadfully thin line went from active to outmanned, and with the pass rush neutralized, the secondary couldn't afford to be aggressive. And it all fell apart.

ISU ended up ranking 66th in both Off. S&P+ and Def. S&P+. That was a pretty clear cutoff point -- against teams better than 66th, there were problems. Worse, and ISU was just fine. Unfortunately, the Cyclones didn't play too many teams worse than that.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.20	97	IsoPPP+	96.8	83
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	41.6%	69	Succ. Rt. +	102.8	62
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	30.9	91	Def. FP+	29.8	68
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.0	106	Redzone S&P+	101.8	69
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	25.7		ACTUAL	24	-1.7

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	58	74	62	83
RUSHING	48	46	34	56
PASSING	63	89	82	86
Standard Downs		69	55	79
Passing Downs		80	91	68

Q1 Rk	61	1st Down Rk	74
Q2 Rk	51	2nd Down Rk	69
Q3 Rk	76	3rd Down Rk	92
Q4 Rk	96

3. A Campbell-Manning offense

Campbell clearly values the Union influence. When he took the head coaching job at Toledo, he made Jason Candle his offensive coordinator; Candle had succeeded him as offensive coordinator at Union in 2007, and, as fate would have it, succeeded him as Toledo's head coach, too.

Without Candle, Campbell simply promoted his offensive line coach, Tom Manning, to coordinator in Ames. Manning was, you guessed it, a teammate of Campbell's at Union and served as Kehres' offensive line coach in 2011.

One assumes ISU's philosophy will mirror Toledo's. Campbell and company crafted an interesting, power-based spread offense at UT, and with the pieces he inherits, you could see that working.

Toledo ran more frequently than normal on standard downs and threw more than normal on passing downs; the Rockets operated at a high pace (familiar in the Big 12) but played pretty physical ball. They weren't reliant on 1-on-1 situations, and they were happy to give the ball to bigger options like 225-pound running back Kareem Hunt.

With sophomore running back Mike Warren returning after an out-of-nowhere 1,339-yard debut, Campbell and Manning will probably be more than happy to give him the ball quite a bit. Manning will be working with a brand new offensive line, but at least they'll have a feature back.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Sam Richardson					128	213	1443	8	8	60.1%	18	7.8%	5.8
Joel Lanning	6'2, 232	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8120	107	193	1246	10	4	55.4%	24	11.1%	5.2
Zeb Noland	6'3, 215	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8300
Jacob Park	6'4, 205	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8417

4. Matt Campbell doesn't have bad QBs

In 2011-12, Toledo pulled off a rare, healthy dual-QB system, with Terrance Owens and Austin Dantin combining for 6,672 yards and 52 touchdown passes. In 2014, starter Phillip Ely got hurt and was replaced by redshirt freshman Logan Woodside, who produced a 142.5 passer rating right out of the gates. In 2015, Ely returned and threw for nearly 3,000 yards.

The quality of Toledo's passing game varied from year to year, but it was never bad. And for an Iowa State team that hasn't ranked better than 87th in passer rating since 2008, that has to be a pretty exciting notion.

Part of the cause of ISU's constant aerial troubles has been a total lack of continuity. Between injury and ineffectiveness, ISU has gone through plenty of QBs. Since 2009, ISU has had at least two QBs throwing 70-plus passes in all but one year.

In 2012, Sam Richardson took over the starting job with a stellar performance in a backup role. In 2015, he was usurped in the same fashion. He completed just three of 11 passes with two interceptions as ISU fell behind Baylor 35-0 in the second quarter. Lanning entered the game, completed 12 of 17 passes, and led a 20-0 scoring run that made the game interesting for a bit. He was ISU's guy the rest of the year, with both high points (15-for-20, 212.3 passer rating against Kansas State) and low (17-for-34, 78.5 rating against WVU).

While former Georgia quarterback Jacob Park could have a role to play in the battle for starting QB when he reports in fall camp, it appears Lanning did all he could to take command of the job in spring practice. He's got nice mobility; he averaged 6.5 yards per non-sack carry, though like a lot of mobile QBs, he took far too many sacks. His accuracy needs work, but if there's any staff that can help with that, it's Campbell's.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Mike Warren	RB	6'0, 200	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8593	227	1339	5	5.9	6.5	37.9%	5	5
Joshua Thomas	RB					75	295	7	3.9	3.3	36.0%	2	1
Joel Lanning	QB	6'2, 232	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8120	70	457	4	6.5	5.3	50.0%	7	2
Sam Richardson	QB					29	115	1	4.0	3.0	41.4%	4	1
Tyler Brown	RB					24	94	0	3.9	7.1	20.8%	1	0
Trever Ryen	WR	5'11, 190	Jr.	NR	NR	17	71	1	4.2	3.7	35.3%	1	0
Mitchell Harger	RB	5'10, 200	Sr.	NR	NR	6	34	0	5.7	1.8	66.7%	0	0
Brian Bonacci	RB	5'11, 222	Sr.	NR	NR
Justin Webster	RB	6'1, 229	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8182
Sheldon Croney Jr.	RB	5'11, 212	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8189
Kene Nwangwu	RB	6'1, 185	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8426
David Montgomery	RB	5'11, 225	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8348

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Allen Lazard	WR	6'5, 223	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9616	92	58	879	63.0%	23.5%	9.6	50.0%	52.2%	1.64
Quenton Bundrage	SLOT					70	41	548	58.6%	17.9%	7.8	51.4%	45.7%	1.56
Jauan Wesley	SLOT	5'11, 181	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8391	51	30	298	58.8%	13.0%	5.8	68.6%	37.3%	1.49
D'Vario Montgomery	WR					50	27	335	54.0%	12.8%	6.7	58.0%	42.0%	1.43
Dondre Daley	WR	6'2, 191	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8116	36	24	244	66.7%	9.2%	6.8	55.6%	38.9%	1.77
Trever Ryen	WR	5'11, 190	Jr.	NR	NR	25	18	191	72.0%	6.4%	7.6	76.0%	48.0%	1.50
Mike Warren	RB	6'0, 200	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8593	22	14	70	63.6%	5.6%	3.2	54.5%	27.3%	1.06
Carson Epps	WR	6'1, 195	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8011	15	8	42	53.3%	3.8%	2.8	73.3%	33.3%	0.76
Joshua Thomas	RB					9	4	18	44.4%	2.3%	2.0	55.6%	22.2%	0.67
Ben Boesen	TE					8	4	22	50.0%	2.0%	2.8	37.5%	12.5%	2.00
Justin Chandler	TE	6'4, 266	Sr.	NR	NR	2	2	49	100.0%	0.5%	24.5	50.0%	100.0%	2.21
Quan West	WR	6'4, 226	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8383
Brandon Harris	WR	6'0, 191	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7998
Darius Lee-Campbell	WR	6'2, 214	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8230
Cole Anderson	TE	6'4, 250	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8352
Denver Johnson	WR	6'3, 219	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8357
Hakeem Butler	WR	6'6, 202	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7893
Clifford Fernandez	TE	6'3, 255	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7998
Chase Allen	TE	6'6, 225	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8655
Deshaunte Jones	WR	5'10, 175	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8577
Jalen Martin	WR	6'3, 200	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8499
Dylan Soehner	TE	6'7, 280	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8348

5. A couple of potential stars

ISU has a far stronger recent reputation for producing quality linemen than skill guys, but in 2016 it could be the reverse. Warren proved explosive and semi-efficient for a freshman, Allen Lazard, the rare blue-chip Rhoads signee, came into his own last fall. He averaged 9.6 yards per target, and in three big games (Iowa, TCU, Oklahoma), he produced big stats: 20 catches, 319 yards.

Meanwhile, the line is starting over. Injuries forced ISU to start seven different linemen at least once last fall, but five are now gone. Granted, stalwart left tackle Jake Campos is back, [Update: Campos might be out for the season] and the two-deep should still have a majority of juniors and seniors. But after ranking 39th in Adj. Line Yards last year, it might be hard to match that.

If the line holds up, then, the biggest issue might be skill depth. Warren and Lazard are great, but only one other returning receiver averaged even 7 yards per target, and Mitchell Harger is the second leading returning running back ... with six carries last year. If either Warren or Lazard get hurt, that could mean disaster.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	107.4	3.09	3.61	39.1%	62.5%	16.6%	62.2	7.7%	14.3%
Rank	39	33	29	63	86	25	122	112	126

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Jamison Lalk	C					12	31
Brock Dagel	RT					12	27
Daniel Burton	LG					6	26
Jake Campos	LT	6'8, 297	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8918	12	23
Oni Omoile	RG					11	21
Wendell Taiese	LG					6	6
Nick Fett	LG	6'7, 313	Sr.	NR	NR	1	1
Jacob Dunning	RT	6'5, 300	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7757	0	1
Jaypee Philbert Jr.	RT	6'5, 314	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8528	0	0
Shawn Curtis	LT	6'5, 290	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8382	0	0
Jacob Homa	OL	6'4, 292	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8249	0	0
Kory Kodanko	OL	6'5, 316	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8241	0	0
Patrick Scoggins	RG	6'1, 293	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7957	0	0
Julian Good-Jones	C	6'5, 270	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8513
Bryce Meeker	LG	6'5, 303	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8306
Karson Green	RG	6'4, 295	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7859
Oge Udeogu	OL	6'3, 330	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8292
Sean Foster	OL	6'8, 285	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8893

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.21	38	IsoPPP+	104.3	50
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	46.4%	111	Succ. Rt. +	95.3	85
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	29.9	64	Off. FP+	30.5	54
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.6	86	Redzone S&P+	96.8	81
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	16.4		ACTUAL	13.0	-3.4

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	108	64	85	50
RUSHING	86	60	72	54
PASSING	112	69	100	58
Standard Downs		62	99	44
Passing Downs		73	60	78

Q1 Rk	77	1st Down Rk	73
Q2 Rk	76	2nd Down Rk	80
Q3 Rk	81	3rd Down Rk	45
Q4 Rk	76

6. A Jon Heacock defense

When Toledo hired a super-young guy with spread offense tendencies, it was easy to lump him in with guys like Kliff Kingsbury, coaches with prodigious offenses and afterthought defenses. But that's not Campbell. He brought a little more size to the table than you imagine with the typical MAC spread, and on defense, when given the opportunity, he handed the keys to a Tresselite.

Jon Heacock was a graduate assistant for Bo Schembechler for two years, then ended up on Jim Tressel's Youngstown State staff for most of the 1990s. After a few years as Cam Cameron's DC at Indiana, he ended up back with Tressel in 2000. When Tressel took the Ohio State job, Heacock was the hand-picked successor at YSU. He spent nine up-and-down years leading the Penguins and won 11 games in 2006, but after going just 10-13 in 2008-09, his tenure ended. And he landed back on the Tressel tree, serving as Darrell Hazell's defensive coordinator in 2011 and 12 and, when Hazell moved to Purdue, his secondary coach in 2013. Campbell pounced on the opportunity.

After a dreadful defensive rebuild in 2014, in which Toledo ranked just 104th in Def. S&P+, Heacock's Rockets defense was fantastic last fall. They ranked 21st in Def. S&P+ and dominated up front: eighth in Rushing S&P+, third in Adj. Line Yards. Needless to say, ISU fans would take that.

Toledo rendered opponents one-dimensional in 2015, invading the backfield on standard downs and forcing opponents to pass. If Iowa State can pull that off, it has the secondary to do some serious damage. But depth up front could be a major hindrance for that formula.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	101.7	3.17	2.65	43.0%	61.9%	17.8%	119.5	6.3%	9.4%
Rank	52	105	17	117	39	93	35	24	25

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Dale Pierson	DE					12	31.5	4.4%	12.5	8.5	1	2	1	0
Demond Tucker	DT	6'0, 296	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8722	12	23.0	3.2%	13.0	6.0	0	0	1	0
J.D. Waggoner	DE	6'3, 250	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8029	12	17.0	2.4%	3.0	1.0	0	1	0	0
Pierre Aka	DT	6'4, 293	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8526	10	15.0	2.1%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jhaustin Thomas	DE	6'6, 265	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	NR	8	12.0	1.7%	2.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Trent Taylor	DE					9	8.5	1.2%	3.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Darius White	DE	6'1, 251	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.7996	11	7.0	1.0%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Vernell Trent	DT	6'3, 280	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8094	12	5.0	0.7%	0.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Gabe Luna	DE	6'2, 243	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8041	2	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Bobby Leath	DT	6'3, 310	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8463
Terry Ayeni	DE	6'2, 270	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8474
Mitchell Meyers	DE	6'4, 263	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8298
Robby Garcia	DT	6'4, 283	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7888
Sam Seonbuchner	DE	6'2, 227	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8272
Seth Nerness	DE	6'4, 247	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8211
Eyioma Uwazurike	DE	6'6, 250	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8504
JaQuan Bailey	DE	6'2, 245	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8469

7. Potential star power (and depth issues)

In Demond Tucker, Heacock inherits one of the quicker, more disruptive defensive tackles in the conference. And out of a pool of Jordan Harris, Willie Harvey, and Brian Mills, he should be able to find two decent anchors at linebacker. [Update: Harris has since transferred to Southern Miss.]

What else he'll have up front, I have no idea. The Cyclones have a ton of juniors and seniors and almost no proven productivity beyond Tucker and, to some small degree, ends J.D. Waggoner and Jhaustin Thomas. This was a decent front last year, but end Dale Pierson was a big part of that and he's gone. I assume competence here, but there won't be much havoc without Heacock having to take some risks.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jordan Harris	MLB	6'0, 233	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7852	12	53.0	7.4%	5.0	1.0	1	0	0	0
Willie Harvey	WLB	6'0, 222	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7956	12	45.0	6.3%	3.0	2.0	0	1	0	0
Levi Peters	DLB					12	37.0	5.2%	6.0	4.0	0	0	3	0
Brian Mills	WLB	5'10, 226	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7926	9	34.5	4.8%	3.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Kane Seeley	MLB	6'2, 239	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7759	12	17.5	2.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Luke Knott	DLB					12	16.5	2.3%	3.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Josh Jahlas	LB	6'2, 204	Sr.	NR	NR	12	10.5	1.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jack Spreen	LB	6'1, 212	Jr.	NR	NR	10	2.5	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Anthony Lazard	LB	6'1, 198	Sr.	NR	NR	7	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Bobby McMillen III	LB	6'1, 237	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8389
Marcel Spears Jr.	LB	6'1, 215	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8244

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Brian Peavy	CB	5'9, 184	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8094	12	68.0	9.5%	3.5	1	2	10	1	0
Qujuan Floyd	SS					11	65.0	9.1%	0.5	0.5	1	2	0	0
Jay Jones	CB	6'3, 209	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8000	12	38.0	5.3%	7	2	0	6	0	0
Jomal Wiltz	CB	5'10, 174	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7833	12	34.5	4.8%	0	0	0	8	0	0
Kamari Cotton-Moya	FS	6'1, 197	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8076	6	33.0	4.6%	2.5	0	0	1	0	0
Nigel Tribune	CB	5'11, 184	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8095	11	33.0	4.6%	1	0	0	7	2	0
Darian Cotton	FS					12	30.0	4.2%	2.5	0	0	2	2	0
Reggan Northrup	NB	6'1, 191	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8131	12	24.0	3.4%	2.5	1	0	0	0	0
Sam Richardson	CB					10	13.0	1.8%	0	0	0	0	0	0
De'Monte Ruth	FS	5'9, 163	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7983	6	2.5	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Vic Holmes	DB	5'11, 197	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8157	3	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Mike Johnson	SS	5'11, 182	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8578
Stephon Pickett-Brown	DB	6'0, 172	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8020
Lonnie Johnson	DB	6'3, 200	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8517
Thadd Daniels	SS	6'1, 200	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8200
D'Andre Payne	NB	5'10, 186	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8248
Lawrence White	DB	6'0, 170	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8357

8. Punching your weight

Life in the Big 12 is misleading. In 2015, Iowa State was 112th in passer rating allowed, 112th in passing yards per game allowed, and 95th in completion rate allowed. That's awful. But adjusting for tempo and opponent, the Cyclones ranked a much healthier (but not healthy) 69th in Passing S&P+. They limited big plays reasonably well, and when they weren't facing top-notch passing games, they did alright.

• ISU pass defense (vs. Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, OU, and OSU): 68% completion rate, 14.2 yards per completion, 19 TD, 1 INT, 179.2 passer rating
• ISU pass defense (vs. everyone else): 55% completion rate, 11.5 yards per completion, 9 TD, 4 INT, 117.9 passer rating

So the good news is, ISU was fine against lesser pass offenses. The bad news is, ISU's still in the Big 12. But at least the secondary is more experienced this time around. Corners Brian Peavy, Jay Jones, Jomal Wiltz, and Nigel Tribune are back after combining for 33 passes defensed and 11.5 tackles for loss. (Jones was a nickel back last year but spent time at CB this spring.) [Update: Tribune has been suspended indefinitely.] Plus, Campbell signed three JUCO defensive backs. I would assume ISU's Passing S&P+ rating rises into the 40-60 range this year. That's solid, but it will only help so much in this conference.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Colin Downing	5'11, 187	Jr.	53	40.9	1	21	15	67.9%
Holden Kramer			7	31.7	1	4	6	142.9%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Cole Netten	6'1, 224	Sr.	35	61.1	8	1	22.9%
Chris Francis	6'0, 177	So.	24	59.2	2	1	8.3%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Cole Netten	6'1, 224	Sr.	35-36	8-11	72.7%	6-8	75.0%
Chris Francis	6'0, 177	So.	1-1	0-0	N/A	0-0	N/A

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Trever Ryen	KR	5'11, 190	Jr.	16	17.9	0
Jomal Wiltz	KR	5'10, 174	Sr.	12	22.6	0
Allen Lazard	PR	6'5, 223	Jr.	11	19.5	0
Trever Ryen	PR	5'11, 190	Jr.	11	15.4	1

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	65
Field Goal Efficiency	58
Punt Return Success Rate	3
Kick Return Success Rate	111
Punt Success Rate	42
Kickoff Success Rate	79

9. Kickoffs > punts in the Big 12

As with the defense, special teams was a good news, bad news situation for ISU. Good: Punts and punt returns were a strength. Bad: The Big 12 is more of a kickoffs and kickoff returns kind of conference, and ISU was bad at those things. Still, the combination of Allen Lazard and Trever Ryan was utterly devastating and should remain a strength. And while kicker Cole Netten is a little less accurate than you'd like on shorter kicks, he can bomb in the long ones.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
3-Sep	Northern Iowa	NR	19.4	87%
10-Sep	at Iowa	38	-10.4	27%
17-Sep	at TCU	31	-11.9	25%
24-Sep	San Jose State	92	9.6	71%
1-Oct	Baylor	13	-11.6	25%
8-Oct	at Oklahoma State	23	-14.8	20%
15-Oct	at Texas	34	-11.4	25%
29-Oct	Kansas State	67	2.7	56%
3-Nov	Oklahoma	4	-17.2	16%
12-Nov	at Kansas	112	10.2	72%
19-Nov	Texas Tech	43	-1.8	46%
26-Nov	West Virginia	33	-4.4	40%
Projected wins: 5.1

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-6.2% (74)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	68 / 65
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	-11 / -9.2
2015 TO Luck/Game	-0.7
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	68% (65%, 71%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	4.8 (-1.8)

10. Welcome to Ames

ISU wasn't that far from a bowl bid last year. The Cyclones had obvious issues, but they won three games handily and barely lost to Toledo, and it was staggering that they ended up losing either the Kansas State or Oklahoma State games, much less both. This team had more strong performances than you thought, even if most were against lesser teams.

Campbell inherits a pretty experienced team, albeit one without a ton of proven play-makers. With a schedule that allowed him to ease in a bit, you could see the Cyclones making a run at seven wins.

They could still make that run -- they're projected to win five, so it wouldn't take too much of a leap -- but the biggest issue could be confidence. By mid-October, ISU will have played at Iowa, TCU, Oklahoma State, and Texas and hosted Baylor. That is a brutal first half of a first season.

Regardless, I like the Campbell hire, and I assume he will have ISU steadily in the 5-7 to 8-4 range. He will sign top-50 recruiting classes and put a top-60 product on the field. For ISU in the short term, that would be spectacular. We'll worry about the long term later.