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Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year's team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year's roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.
1. It's a big year in Stillwater
Few teams have been as consistently good in recent years. The Cowboys have won 9+ games in five of the last six seasons (and it took three tight losses to prevent it in the other season). The 'Pokes were an unlikely overtime loss in Ames away from a spot in the BCS Championship in 2011; they lost some of their greatest players ever and still finished in F/+ top 16 the next two years. Mike Gundy has replaced assistants, quarterbacks, and award winners and has kept right on winning.
The Cowboys get the benefit of the doubt until they prove they don't deserve it.
At what point do you lose the benefit of the doubt? From 2006-13, Gundy pulled off an incredible run. His Cowboys ranked 26th or better in S&P+ each year and won at least nine games five times. From 2010-13, things were even better: OSU went 41-11 and ranked 13th or better each year.
Building a top-15 program with top-40 recruiting is tricky. Every time a key group cycles out, there's a chance that the replacements don't live up. That Gundy was able to absorb so many losses was outstanding.
That high level has dissipated. In 2014, both the offense and defense collapsed -- the offense from 20th in Off. S&P+ to 69th, the defense from ninth in Def. S&P+ to 63rd. Suddenly mediocre, the Cowboys needed a stunning comeback against Oklahoma just to become bowl eligible.
In 2015, the offense bounced back. Despite eventual injuries at quarterback and a complete lack of a run game, OSU rebounded to 23rd in Off. S&P+. But even with ends Emmanuel Ogbah and Jimmy Bean recording 28 tackles for loss and 18.5 sacks, the defense again finished 63rd.
Oklahoma State faded dramatically last November, and injuries were only part of the reason. The 'Pokes return a large portion of last year's two-deep, however, and after finishing 33rd in overall S&P+, the odds of them ranking higher in 2016 seem strong.
Ogbah and Bean are gone. And until proven otherwise, the shoddy run game could continue to hold OSU back. OSU appears to be on an upward trajectory again, but can the defense improve enough to again give this program top-15 potential? Is this more of a top-25 program now?
Tons of programs would kill to be only top-25 level, and such success in Stillwater seemed less than feasible just a decade ago. But after Gundy's wonderful start, the bar is high, and that makes 2016 a huge season. This is the year we learn about OSU's new ceiling. Perhaps last year's fade distracted us from how good the Cowboys were for two months; perhaps this year we'll see three months at that level.
OSU now faces a little burden of proof.
2015 Schedule & Results
Record: 10-3 | Adj. Record: 9-4 | Final F/+ Rk: 40 | Final S&P+ Rk: 33 | ||||||||
Date | Opponent | Opp. F/+ Rk | Score | W-L | Percentile Performance |
Win Expectancy |
vs. S&P+ | Performance vs. Vegas |
3-Sep | at Central Michigan | 67 | 24-13 | W | 81% | 92% | +0.4 | -13.0 |
12-Sep | Central Arkansas | N/A | 32-8 | W | 81% | 100% | -6.4 | |
19-Sep | UTSA | 111 | 69-14 | W | 95% | 100% | +24.6 | +30.5 |
26-Sep | at Texas | 68 | 30-27 | W | 76% | 93% | +3.2 | -0.5 |
3-Oct | Kansas State | 81 | 36-34 | W | 71% | 89% | +3.0 | -5.5 |
10-Oct | at West Virginia | 31 | 33-26 | W | 65% | 51% | +23.7 | +14.0 |
24-Oct | Kansas | 127 | 58-10 | W | 92% | 100% | +13.8 | +14.5 |
31-Oct | at Texas Tech | 60 | 70-53 | W | 76% | 87% | +11.6 | +14.0 |
7-Nov | TCU | 19 | 49-29 | W | 97% | 100% | +24.4 | +25.5 |
14-Nov | at Iowa State | 79 | 35-31 | W | 41% | 38% | -5.5 | -10.0 |
21-Nov | Baylor | 14 | 35-45 | L | 41% | 7% | -7.7 | -10.0 |
28-Nov | Oklahoma | 4 | 23-58 | L | 23% | 1% | -29.5 | -28.0 |
1-Jan | vs. Ole Miss | 5 | 20-48 | L | 19% | 0% | -19.9 | -20.5 |
Category | Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk |
S&P+ | 38.1 | 23 | 28.1 | 63 |
Points Per Game | 39.5 | 14 | 30.5 | 88 |
2. See if you can spot where it all went wrong
Oklahoma State was both very lucky and very good early.
The Cowboys benefited from absurd turnovers luck throughout 2015 -- plus-6.6 points per game, easily the luckiest in the country. They recovered 63 percent of all fumbles, fifth-most in the country; FR% always reverts toward 50 percent over time. Plus, while national averages suggest that about 22 percent of a team's passes defensed (INTs + breakups) will be interceptions, OSU managed 35 percent, while opponents ended up at just 15 percent.
National averages suggest OSU's turnover margin should have been about minus-4 in 2015; it was plus-13, plus-12 in wins. Considering OSU was 4-0 in one-possession games, the Cowboys' 10-0 start could have gone in a completely different direction with a few kooky bounces (or less-slippery punter hands or better officiating).
That said, the Cowboys were also playing well. And after needing some good fortune to get past Texas, KSU, and WVU, OSU looked like it was starting to peak. The 'Pokes destroyed KU as you are supposed to do, then unleashed a huge comeback at Texas Tech and walloped TCU by 20 (yes, with help from turnovers). Suddenly they were 9-0 and rising.
- First 9 games:
Record: 9-0 | Avg. Percentile Performance: 82% (~top 25) | Yards per play: OSU 6.7, Opp 5.0 - Last 4 games:
Record: 1-3 | Avg. Percentile Performance: 31% (~top 90) | Yards per play: Opp 7.2, OSU 5.7
OSU needed another big comeback to survive against an Iowa State that wasn't even playing well; then, against three top-15 teams, the Cowboys had little to offer. Baylor went on a 24-0 run to turn a tight game into a laugher (OSU scored twice in the final five minutes to cut the deficit to 10), then Oklahoma and Ole Miss outscored them by a combined 106-43.
Quarterback injuries played a role -- Rudolph suffered a foot fracture against Baylor and threw just three passes against Oklahoma (two incompletions and an interception) -- but offense wasn't the major problem. Bean tore his ACL, and without him, Ogbah's productivity waned. Suddenly OSU didn't have enough to pretend to slow down good offenses.
OSU returns a majority of last year's defensive two-deep, but without Bean or Ogbah, can the Cowboys create the havoc that coordinator Glenn Spencer prefers?
Offense
FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE | ||||||
Raw Category | Rk | Opp. Adj. Category | Rk | |||
EXPLOSIVENESS | IsoPPP | 1.36 | 27 | IsoPPP+ | 112.4 | 34 |
EFFICIENCY | Succ. Rt. | 43.4% | 45 | Succ. Rt. + | 100.9 | 70 |
FIELD POSITION | Def. Avg. FP | 26.9 | 12 | Def. FP+ | 26.9 | 16 |
FINISHING DRIVES | Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity | 4.9 | 27 | Redzone S&P+ | 113.6 | 26 |
TURNOVERS | EXPECTED | 23.8 | ACTUAL | 15 | -8.8 |
Category | Yards/ Game Rk |
S&P+ Rk | Success Rt. Rk |
PPP+ Rk |
OVERALL | 22 | 38 | 70 | 34 |
RUSHING | 114 | 114 | 109 | 119 |
PASSING | 7 | 18 | 30 | 15 |
Standard Downs | 83 | 100 | 73 | |
Passing Downs | 11 | 17 | 10 |
Q1 Rk | 30 | 1st Down Rk | 36 |
Q2 Rk | 64 | 2nd Down Rk | 74 |
Q3 Rk | 40 | 3rd Down Rk | 10 |
Q4 Rk | 10 |
Quarterback
Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.
Player | Ht, Wt | 2016 Year |
Rivals | 247 Comp. | Comp | Att | Yards | TD | INT | Comp Rate |
Sacks | Sack Rate | Yards/ Att. |
Mason Rudolph | 6'5, 235 | Jr. | 4 stars (5.8) | 0.8977 | 264 | 424 | 3770 | 21 | 9 | 62.3% | 30 | 6.6% | 7.9 |
J.W. Walsh | 57 | 85 | 787 | 13 | 1 | 67.1% | 0 | 0.0% | 9.3 | ||||
Taylor Cornelius | 6'6, 218 | So. | NR | NR | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 40.0% | 2 | 28.6% | -1.1 |
John Kolar | 6'4, 200 | RSFr. | 4 stars (5.8) | 0.8987 | |||||||||
Keondre Wudtee | 6'4, 195 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8404 |
3. It's all on Mason now
New BYU offensive coordinator Ty Detmer should maybe give Mike Yurcich a call. Detmer is dealing with a potentially strange, potentially great quarterback situation, returning both 3,300-yard passer Tanner Mangum and ultra-mobile Taysom Hill.
Over much of the last two seasons, Yurcich dealt with something similar, trying to figure out how to take advantage of the talents of golden-armed Mason Rudolph and runner J.W. Walsh.
There were plenty of glitches and issues with predictability to boot (if Rudolph's in, OSU is probably passing, and if Walsh is in, OSU is probably running), but OSU's offensive improvement in 2015 proves that you can find a balance.
Walsh graduated, which means the job is all Rudolph's.
Considering that even with Walsh involved, OSU's run-pass rates skewed pass-heavy, one has to figure the Cowboys will be throwing the ball a lot. It would make sense, anyway -- Rudolph and receivers James Washington, Marcell Ateman, Jhajuan Seales, and Jalen McCleskey are ridiculously dangerous, and until proven otherwise, the running game still stinks.
A transfer with a familiar name could change that.
Running Back
Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | 2016 Year |
Rivals | 247 Comp. | Rushes | Yards | TD | Yards/ Carry |
Hlt Yds/ Opp. |
Opp. Rate |
Fumbles | Fum. Lost |
Chris Carson | RB | 6'1, 215 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8869 | 131 | 517 | 4 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 38.2% | 1 | 0 |
J.W. Walsh | QB | 77 | 359 | 13 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 35.1% | 2 | 0 | ||||
Rennie Childs | RB | 5'10, 208 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8573 | 72 | 281 | 2 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 37.5% | 0 | 0 |
Barry Sanders (Stanford) |
RB | 5'10, 198 | Sr. | 4 stars (5.8) | 0.9599 | 51 | 315 | 4 | 6.2 | 9.5 | 31.4% | 0 | 0 |
Raymond Taylor | RB | 47 | 297 | 4 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 42.6% | 0 | 0 | ||||
Mason Rudolph | QB | 6'5, 235 | Jr. | 4 stars (5.8) | 0.8977 | 37 | 140 | 1 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 35.1% | 6 | 2 |
Jeff Carr | RB | 5'7, 180 | So. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.7926 | 36 | 142 | 1 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 27.8% | 1 | 0 |
Brandon Sheperd | WR | 7 | 39 | 0 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 57.1% | 0 | 0 | ||||
Jalen McCleskey | WR | 5'10, 170 | So. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8362 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 75.0% | 5 | 2 |
Sione Palelei | RB | 5'9, 230 | So. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8660 | ||||||||
LD Brown | RB | 5'9, 174 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8484 | ||||||||
Justice Hill | RB | 5'10, 171 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8443 |
4. Here comes another Barry Sanders
There was almost nothing good about Oklahoma State's 2015 run game. The blocking was rarely there, and when Chris Carson or Rennie Childs did find a hole, they didn't do much with it. The Cowboys managed 59 rushes of 10-plus yards (89th in FBS) and five of 30-plus (101st); Walsh and since-departed Raymond Taylor accounted for 19 of those 59 10-yarders.
The line was young; sophomores accounted for 33 of 65 starts, while seniors had zero. Simple continuity could help. But you still need someone who can burst through holes occasionally, and there is absolutely no proven explosiveness.
Stanford transfer Barry Sanders, son of the OSU legend? Quite explosive and elusive. Granted, he is an all-or-nothing back who won't help OSU's efficiency, but the Cowboys could desperately use some more big plays, and that's one thing he can deliver.
The run game doesn't have to be good for OSU to have a good offense, like last year. But competence, with the occasional big gain, could provide a distraction for a devastating passing game.
Receiving Corps
Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | 2016 Year |
Rivals | 247 Comp. | Targets | Catches | Yards | Catch Rate | Target Rate |
Yds/ Target |
%SD | Success Rate |
IsoPPP |
James Washington | WR | 6'0, 205 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8451 | 103 | 53 | 979 | 51.5% | 20.5% | 9.5 | 60.2% | 43.7% | 2.06 |
David Glidden | WR | 87 | 57 | 866 | 65.5% | 17.3% | 10.0 | 49.4% | 57.5% | 1.60 | ||||
Marcell Ateman | WR | 6'4, 215 | Sr. | 4 stars (5.8) | 0.9006 | 70 | 45 | 766 | 64.3% | 13.9% | 10.9 | 48.6% | 60.0% | 1.68 |
Brandon Sheperd | WR | 42 | 23 | 338 | 54.8% | 8.4% | 8.0 | 50.0% | 42.9% | 1.77 | ||||
Jhajuan Seales | WR | 6'0, 205 | Sr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.8115 | 33 | 18 | 321 | 54.5% | 6.6% | 9.7 | 57.6% | 42.4% | 2.21 |
Jalen McCleskey | WR | 5'10, 170 | So. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8362 | 32 | 29 | 327 | 90.6% | 6.4% | 10.2 | 87.5% | 46.9% | 2.05 |
Austin Hays | WR | 6'2, 195 | Sr. | 2 stars (5.2) | NR | 30 | 22 | 200 | 73.3% | 6.0% | 6.7 | 56.7% | 60.0% | 0.97 |
Chris Carson | RB | 6'1, 215 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8869 | 24 | 17 | 170 | 70.8% | 4.8% | 7.1 | 45.8% | 41.7% | 1.52 |
Blake Jarwin | HB | 6'5, 248 | Sr. | NR | NR | 22 | 17 | 200 | 77.3% | 4.4% | 9.1 | 54.5% | 63.6% | 1.34 |
Jeff Carr | RB | 5'7, 180 | So. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.7926 | 14 | 11 | 43 | 78.6% | 2.8% | 3.1 | 71.4% | 28.6% | 1.09 |
Chris Lacy | WR | 6'3, 205 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8472 | 13 | 8 | 120 | 61.5% | 2.6% | 9.2 | 76.9% | 61.5% | 1.41 |
Jeremy Seaton | FB | 11 | 7 | 88 | 63.6% | 2.2% | 8.0 | 54.5% | 54.5% | 1.45 | ||||
Rennie Childs | RB | 5'10, 208 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8573 | 8 | 8 | 66 | 100.0% | 1.6% | 8.3 | 12.5% | 25.0% | 2.62 |
Zac Veatch | HB | 6'3, 265 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8609 | 6 | 5 | 72 | 83.3% | 1.2% | 12.0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 1.64 |
Keenen Brown | HB | 6'3, 242 | So. | 4 stars (5.8) | 0.8932 | |||||||||
Jordan Frazier | HB | 6'4, 265 | So. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.7973 | |||||||||
Tyrell Alexander | WR | 6'1, 170 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8696 | |||||||||
Dillon Stoner | WR | 6'0, 176 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8395 |
5. One of the country's 10 best passing attacks?
When Oklahoma State hit its stride in late-October, James Washington was the primary reason. He was already on pace for a good season, but against Kansas, Texas Tech, and TCU, he went nuclear: 15 catches, 487 yards, six touchdowns. He had another 12 for 257 against Baylor and OU.
Washington was one of the best receivers in the country over the second half of 2015, and despite the loss of David Glidden and Brandon Sheperd, the sky is the limit for OSU's receiving corps. The top four returnees averaged 11 catches per game and 10.1 yards per target, and Washington, Ateman, and Seales enter their third year with Rudolph. As long as the 'Pokes don't become completely one-dimensional, this passing game should be one of the nation's 10 best.
And then there's the matter of the Cowboy Back, an H-back position that Gundy and Yurcich introduced in 2015. It was perhaps an underutilized efficiency option -- Blake Jarwin and Zac Veatch combined for a 79 percent catch rate and a 64 percent catch rate -- and could become a bigger piece of the redzone puzzle now that Walsh's read-option abilities are gone. Plus, former four-star signee Keenen Brown could enter the C-B rotation.
Offensive Line
Category | Adj. Line Yds |
Std. Downs LY/carry |
Pass. Downs LY/carry |
Opp. Rate |
Power Success Rate |
Stuff Rate |
Adj. Sack Rate |
Std. Downs Sack Rt. |
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. |
Team | 76 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 38.3% | 64.4% | 22.0% | 112.0 | 6.2% | 5.1% |
Rank | 127 | 122 | 124 | 75 | 75 | 96 | 45 | 88 | 19 |
Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | 2016 Year |
Rivals | 247 Comp. | 2015 Starts | Career Starts | Honors/Notes |
Victor Salako | LT | 6'6, 335 | Sr. | 2 stars (5.2) | 0.7000 | 13 | 36 | |
Michael Wilson | LG | 6'6, 305 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.9032 | 13 | 21 | |
Zachary Crabtree | RT | 6'7, 310 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8569 | 13 | 21 | |
Paul Lewis | RG | 6 | 19 | |||||
Brad Lundblade | C | 6'3, 300 | Jr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.8115 | 13 | 14 | |
Jesse Robinson | RG | 6'5, 315 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8364 | 7 | 9 | |
Matthew Mucha | C | 6'5, 300 | So. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8210 | 0 | 0 | |
Lemaefe Galea'i | LG | 6'4, 325 | So. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.0000 | 0 | 0 | |
Colby Hegwood | C | 0 | 0 | |||||
Brandon Pertile | RT | 6'4, 315 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8275 | 0 | 0 | |
Johnny Wilson | RG | 6'3, 305 | RSFr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8591 | |||
Marcus Keyes | LT | 6'3, 300 | RSFr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.8073 | |||
Larry Williams | LG | 6'4, 318 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8550 | |||
Shane Richards | OL | 6'8, 330 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8217 | |||
Tramonda Moore | OL | 6'4, 350 | Fr. | 4 stars (5.8) | 0.9466 | |||
Tyler Brown | OL | 6'6, 300 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8499 |
Defense
FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE | ||||||
Raw Category | Rk | Opp. Adj. Category | Rk | |||
EXPLOSIVENESS | IsoPPP | 1.31 | 90 | IsoPPP+ | 105.3 | 46 |
EFFICIENCY | Succ. Rt. | 41.1% | 64 | Succ. Rt. + | 109.4 | 38 |
FIELD POSITION | Off. Avg. FP | 31.1 | 42 | Off. FP+ | 31.1 | 39 |
FINISHING DRIVES | Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity | 4.8 | 99 | Redzone S&P+ | 94.7 | 89 |
TURNOVERS | EXPECTED | 19.6 | ACTUAL | 28.0 | +8.4 |
Category | Yards/ Game Rk |
S&P+ Rk | Success Rt. Rk |
PPP+ Rk |
OVERALL | 100 | 43 | 38 | 46 |
RUSHING | 87 | 51 | 36 | 62 |
PASSING | 95 | 42 | 39 | 50 |
Standard Downs | 41 | 32 | 46 | |
Passing Downs | 45 | 31 | 51 |
Q1 Rk | 52 | 1st Down Rk | 32 |
Q2 Rk | 89 | 2nd Down Rk | 56 |
Q3 Rk | 17 | 3rd Down Rk | 56 |
Q4 Rk | 33 |
6. Not great, not terrible
The list of extreme strengths and weaknesses for OSU's defense in 2015 is short.
- Really good: passing-downs pass rush
- Really bad: short yardage, red zone
That's about it. Glenn Spencer's D was ... fine. Texas Tech would kill for "fine," but Spencer and OSU set the bar really high in 2013 and have failed to clear it for two straight years.
Spencer tried to be as aggressive as ever last year, and opponents knew it -- they threw more frequently than normal on standard downs and ran more frequently on passing downs, both ways to keep an aggressive defense on its heels. OSU improved in the second half of most games but got burned too much early on for gambles to pay off.
It's hard to get a read on what the Cowboys are capable of. The secondary is quite experienced, with the return of two seniors (Jordan Sterns, Ashton Lampkin), three juniors (Tre Flowers, Ramond Richards, Jerel Morrow), and senior Auburn transfer Derrick Moncrief. The linebacking corps returns two starters (Jordan Burton and Chad Whitener) who combined for 16.5 tackles for loss a year ago. Every tackle is back, including quick-for-his-size junior Vincent Taylor and four-star sophomore Darrion Daniels. That suggests great things.
The two most important play-makers -- Ogbah and Bean -- are gone. And we saw last year that losing just Bean rendered OSU feckless against good offenses.
Defensive Line
Category | Adj. Line Yds |
Std. Downs LY/carry |
Pass. Downs LY/carry |
Opp. Rate |
Power Success Rate |
Stuff Rate |
Adj. Sack Rate |
Std. Downs Sack Rt. |
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. |
Team | 105.2 | 3.04 | 3.33 | 40.6% | 71.2% | 19.2% | 133.3 | 6.3% | 13.8% |
Rank | 42 | 89 | 74 | 90 | 97 | 80 | 20 | 24 | 2 |
Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | 2016 Year |
Rivals | 247 Comp. | GP | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
Emmanuel Ogbah | DE | 13 | 54.0 | 6.6% | 17.5 | 13.0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | ||||
Vincent Taylor | DT | 6'3, 310 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8944 | 13 | 39.0 | 4.7% | 8.5 | 5.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jimmy Bean | DE | 8 | 22.5 | 2.7% | 10.5 | 5.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
Jordan Brailford | DE | 6'3, 245 | So. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8879 | 10 | 20.5 | 2.5% | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Trace Clark | DE | 12 | 18.5 | 2.2% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | ||||
Motekiai Maile | DT | 6'3, 315 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8706 | 13 | 16.5 | 2.0% | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Darrion Daniels | DT | 6'3, 305 | So. | 4 stars (5.9) | 0.9032 | 13 | 13.5 | 1.6% | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Jarrell Owens | DE | 6'3, 270 | So. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8735 | 13 | 9.5 | 1.2% | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Eric Davis | DT | 6'3, 305 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8738 | 13 | 6.5 | 0.8% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ben Hughes | DT | 6'1, 320 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8839 | |||||||||
Vili Leveni | DT | 6'4, 290 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8153 | |||||||||
Trey Carter | DE | 6'3, 285 | So. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8807 | |||||||||
Cole Walterscheid | DE | 6'5, 254 | So. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8363 | |||||||||
Taaj Bakari | DT | 6'1, 305 | RSFr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8489 | |||||||||
Tralund Webber | DE | 6'5, 250 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8418 | |||||||||
Cameron Murray | DT | 6'2, 280 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8265 |
Linebackers
Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | 2016 Year |
Rivals | 247 Comp. | GP | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
Jordan Burton | SLB | 6'2, 215 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8373 | 13 | 80.5 | 9.8% | 9.0 | 3.5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Chad Whitener | MLB | 6'0, 248 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8426 | 13 | 75.5 | 9.2% | 7.5 | 2.0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Seth Jacobs | WLB | 13 | 53.5 | 6.5% | 8.5 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | ||||
Devante Averette | WLB | 5'11, 230 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8463 | 13 | 25.5 | 3.1% | 3.5 | 2.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Kirk Tucker | SLB | 6'1, 200 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8600 | 13 | 18.5 | 2.2% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Ryan Simmons | MLB | 5 | 11.5 | 1.4% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
Gyasi Akem | WLB | 6'2, 230 | Jr. | 4 stars (5.8) | 0.9127 | 8 | 6.5 | 0.8% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Josh Mabin | MLB | 6'1, 240 | So. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8737 | 5 | 3.0 | 0.4% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Kris Catlin | LB | 7 | 2.0 | 0.2% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
Justin Phillips | SLB | 6'0, 235 | So. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8451 | |||||||||
Kevin Henry | LB | 6'0, 225 | RSFr. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8904 | |||||||||
Calvin Bundage | LB | 6'2, 193 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8770 | |||||||||
Amen Ogbongbemiga | LB | 6'0, 207 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8252 |
7. The wrong two players to lose?
Just because you weren't ready as a freshman doesn't mean you'll never be ready. In backup roles, sophomores Jordan Brailford and Jarrell Owens did combine for 6.5 TFLs and four sacks, even if OSU's defensive effectiveness trailed off late with the more work they got. Maybe with typical year-to-year progression, they can turn into havoc players in 2016. They could get help from both a JUCO transfer (Tralund Webber) and fellow sophomores Trey Carter and Cole Walterscheid. [Update: Oklahoma State landed another JUCO transfer in defensive tackle D.Q. Osborne, who was released from his letter of intent at Baylor.]
If they do, all other pieces could fall into place. Ogbah and Bean carried an inexperienced front seven that saw three freshmen, three sophomores, and two transfers in the rotation. Now that players like Darrion Daniels, SFA transfer Jordan Burton and Cal transfer Chad Whitener have all been in the system for a year, they could begin to more effectively play the attacking style Spencer prefers.
Among the guaranteed contributors, only Burton and tackle Motekiai Maile are seniors. If this unit doesn't round into shape this fall, it probably will the next.
Secondary
Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | 2016 Year |
Rivals | 247 Comp. | GP | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
Jordan Sterns | FS | 6'0, 200 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8658 | 13 | 89.5 | 10.9% | 1.5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Tre Flowers | SS | 6'3, 198 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8367 | 13 | 74.5 | 9.1% | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 |
Kevin Peterson | CB | 12 | 38.5 | 4.7% | 4.5 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | ||||
Ashton Lampkin | CB | 6'0, 190 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8559 | 12 | 28.0 | 3.4% | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Derrick Moncrief (Auburn) |
SS | 6'2, 220 | Sr. | 4 stars (5.8) | 0.9044 | 13 | 20.5 | 2.9% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Michael Hunter | CB | 13 | 19.0 | 2.3% | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | ||||
Miketavius Jones | CB | 13 | 15.0 | 1.8% | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ||||
Ramon Richards | CB | 5'11, 185 | Jr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.8251 | 12 | 14.5 | 1.8% | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Jerel Morrow | SS | 5'10, 200 | Jr. | 4 stars (5.8) | 0.8816 | 13 | 13.0 | 1.6% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Kenneth Edison-McGruder | FS | 6'0, 215 | So. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8742 | 12 | 11.5 | 1.4% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Deric Robertson | S | 12 | 11.0 | 1.3% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | ||||
Darius Curry | CB | 6'1, 205 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8587 | 12 | 9.0 | 1.1% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Chris Hardeman | CB | 10 | 4.5 | 0.5% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ||||
Za'Carrius Green | FS | 5'11, 205 | RSFr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8354 | |||||||||
Malik Kearse | CB | 6'0, 160 | Jr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.8274 | |||||||||
Rodarius Williams | CB | 6'0, 172 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8529 | |||||||||
Madre Harper | CB | 6'2, 167 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8491 | |||||||||
A.J. Green | CB | 6'1, 160 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8465 |
8. Got enough cornerbacks?
OSU both loses a lot and returns a lot in the back. Eleven DBs saw reasonable playing time; four are gone, including active corner Kevin Peterson, but that means seven return. Moncrief joins the rotation as well.
I have few concerns about the safeties. Jordan Sterns and Tre Flowers (combined: 4.5 TFLs, 4 INTs, 10 PBUs) have been regulars for a couple of years, and junior Jerel Morrow has gotten plenty of reps. Even if Moncrief isn't ready for a starring role, he only has to be a decent contributor.
Cornerback is a bit of a worry. Peterson, Michael Hunter, and Miketavius Jones are all gone, leaving 17th-year senior Ashton Lampkin, Ramon Richards, and unknowns. Darius Curry has seen some playing time over the last couple of years, and the February signing class could help quickly, either because of JUCO Malik Kearse or a mid-three-star freshman like Rodarius Williams or A.J. Green. But if there's an issue in the secondary, it will be on the edges.
Special Teams
Punter | Ht, Wt | 2016 Year |
Punts | Avg | TB | FC | I20 | FC/I20 Ratio |
Zach Sinor | 5'10, 215 | So. | 75 | 40.1 | 3 | 31 | 28 | 78.7% |
Kicker | Ht, Wt | 2016 Year |
Kickoffs | Avg | TB | OOB | TB% |
Ben Grogan | 6'1, 190 | Sr. | 92 | 60.1 | 22 | 2 | 23.9% |
Place-Kicker | Ht, Wt | 2016 Year |
PAT | FG (0-39) |
Pct | FG (40+) |
Pct |
Ben Grogan | 6'1, 190 | Sr. | 61-64 | 12-14 | 85.7% | 4-6 | 66.7% |
Matt Hockett | 6'2, 215 | So. | 1-1 | 0-1 | 0.0% | 0-0 | N/A |
Returner | Pos. | Ht, Wt | 2016 Year |
Returns | Avg. | TD |
Jeff Carr | KR | 5'7, 180 | So. | 29 | 21.5 | 0 |
Brandon Sheperd | KR | 5 | 20.6 | 0 | ||
Jalen McCleskey | PR | 5'10, 170 | So. | 22 | 5.0 | 1 |
Category | Rk |
Special Teams S&P+ | 79 |
Field Goal Efficiency | 81 |
Punt Return Success Rate | 118 |
Kick Return Success Rate | 57 |
Punt Success Rate | 35 |
Kickoff Success Rate | 113 |
9. Good field position despite special teams
We're used to OSU having dynamite return men, but that wasn't really the case in 2016. All-or-nothing Jalen McCleskey took one punt 67 yards and gained just 44 yards in 21 other returns; meanwhile, kick returner Jeff Carr was the opposite, gaining decent yardage each time but rarely going a long way. Barry Sanders gives Gundy another weapon to potentially utilize here -- in three years at Stanford, he returned nine punts and two kickoffs -- but there are no guarantees.
The good news is that, despite iffy returns and a bad run game, OSU still managed strong field position in 2015. OSU ranked 25th in FBS (and first in the Big 12) in field position margin at plus-4.2 yards per possession. Just imagine what could happen with better special teams. Punter Zach Sinor could be a weapon for years, but the rest of this unit needs help.
2016 Schedule & Projection Factors
2016 Schedule |
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Date | Opponent | Proj. S&P+ Rk | Proj. Margin | Win Probability |
3-Sep | SE Louisiana | NR | 45.9 | 100% |
10-Sep | Central Michigan | 85 | 18.8 | 86% |
17-Sep | Pittsburgh | 29 | 5.8 | 63% |
24-Sep | at Baylor | 13 | -7.3 | 34% |
1-Oct | Texas | 34 | 6.9 | 65% |
8-Oct | Iowa State | 71 | 14.8 | 80% |
22-Oct | at Kansas | 112 | 21.5 | 89% |
29-Oct | West Virginia | 33 | 6.9 | 65% |
5-Nov | at Kansas State | 67 | 7.1 | 66% |
12-Nov | Texas Tech | 43 | 9.6 | 71% |
19-Nov | at TCU | 31 | -0.6 | 49% |
3-Dec | at Oklahoma | 4 | -12.9 | 23% |
Projected wins: 7.9 |
Five-Year F/+ Rk | 30.3% (16) |
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk | 40 / 38 |
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* | 13 / -4.2 |
2015 TO Luck/Game | +6.6 |
Returning Production (Off. / Def.) | 74% (79%, 69%) |
2015 Second-order wins (difference) | 8.6 (1.4) |
Our OSU blog
Our OSU blog
10. Another fast start on the way?
OSU is projected 23rd in S&P+ this year, which probably makes sense. The Cowboys return solid experience on both sides, and recent program history suggests a further rebound from 2014 should be expected.
If the Cowboys can be something more than 23rd, however, we might not know for a while. The Cowboys are scheduled to play only two projected top-25 teams, and while there are five more opponents projected between 29th and 43rd (the middle of this conference is pretty deep), four come to Stillwater.
OSU has a better than 50 percent chance of winning in nine of 12 games. This schedule is custom-built for another run at nine or 10 wins, but the Cowboys better mind their Ps and Qs. If the defense can't generate enough pressure, or if the run game is even worse without Walsh, a schedule full of 60-percent win probabilities could turn quickly on the 'Pokes.