Is Oklahoma State still a top-15 program? We'll find out in 2016.

Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year's team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year's roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

1. It's a big year in Stillwater

Few teams have been as consistently good in recent years. The Cowboys have won 9+ games in five of the last six seasons (and it took three tight losses to prevent it in the other season). The 'Pokes were an unlikely overtime loss in Ames away from a spot in the BCS Championship in 2011; they lost some of their greatest players ever and still finished in F/+ top 16 the next two years. Mike Gundy has replaced assistants, quarterbacks, and award winners and has kept right on winning.

The Cowboys get the benefit of the doubt until they prove they don't deserve it.

-- The 2014 Oklahoma State guide

At what point do you lose the benefit of the doubt? From 2006-13, Gundy pulled off an incredible run. His Cowboys ranked 26th or better in S&P+ each year and won at least nine games five times. From 2010-13, things were even better: OSU went 41-11 and ranked 13th or better each year.

Building a top-15 program with top-40 recruiting is tricky. Every time a key group cycles out, there's a chance that the replacements don't live up. That Gundy was able to absorb so many losses was outstanding.

That high level has dissipated. In 2014, both the offense and defense collapsed -- the offense from 20th in Off. S&P+ to 69th, the defense from ninth in Def. S&P+ to 63rd. Suddenly mediocre, the Cowboys needed a stunning comeback against Oklahoma just to become bowl eligible.

In 2015, the offense bounced back. Despite eventual injuries at quarterback and a complete lack of a run game, OSU rebounded to 23rd in Off. S&P+. But even with ends Emmanuel Ogbah and Jimmy Bean recording 28 tackles for loss and 18.5 sacks, the defense again finished 63rd.

Oklahoma State faded dramatically last November, and injuries were only part of the reason. The 'Pokes return a large portion of last year's two-deep, however, and after finishing 33rd in overall S&P+, the odds of them ranking higher in 2016 seem strong.

Ogbah and Bean are gone. And until proven otherwise, the shoddy run game could continue to hold OSU back. OSU appears to be on an upward trajectory again, but can the defense improve enough to again give this program top-15 potential? Is this more of a top-25 program now?

Tons of programs would kill to be only top-25 level, and such success in Stillwater seemed less than feasible just a decade ago. But after Gundy's wonderful start, the bar is high, and that makes 2016 a huge season. This is the year we learn about OSU's new ceiling. Perhaps last year's fade distracted us from how good the Cowboys were for two months; perhaps this year we'll see three months at that level.

OSU now faces a little burden of proof.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 10-3 | Adj. Record: 9-4 | Final F/+ Rk: 40 | Final S&P+ Rk: 33
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
3-Sep	at Central Michigan	67	24-13	W	81%	92%	+0.4	-13.0
12-Sep	Central Arkansas	N/A	32-8	W	81%	100%	-6.4
19-Sep	UTSA	111	69-14	W	95%	100%	+24.6	+30.5
26-Sep	at Texas	68	30-27	W	76%	93%	+3.2	-0.5
3-Oct	Kansas State	81	36-34	W	71%	89%	+3.0	-5.5
10-Oct	at West Virginia	31	33-26	W	65%	51%	+23.7	+14.0
24-Oct	Kansas	127	58-10	W	92%	100%	+13.8	+14.5
31-Oct	at Texas Tech	60	70-53	W	76%	87%	+11.6	+14.0
7-Nov	TCU	19	49-29	W	97%	100%	+24.4	+25.5
14-Nov	at Iowa State	79	35-31	W	41%	38%	-5.5	-10.0
21-Nov	Baylor	14	35-45	L	41%	7%	-7.7	-10.0
28-Nov	Oklahoma	4	23-58	L	23%	1%	-29.5	-28.0
1-Jan	vs. Ole Miss	5	20-48	L	19%	0%	-19.9	-20.5

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	38.1	23	28.1	63
Points Per Game	39.5	14	30.5	88

2. See if you can spot where it all went wrong

Oklahoma State was both very lucky and very good early.

The Cowboys benefited from absurd turnovers luck throughout 2015 -- plus-6.6 points per game, easily the luckiest in the country. They recovered 63 percent of all fumbles, fifth-most in the country; FR% always reverts toward 50 percent over time. Plus, while national averages suggest that about 22 percent of a team's passes defensed (INTs + breakups) will be interceptions, OSU managed 35 percent, while opponents ended up at just 15 percent.

National averages suggest OSU's turnover margin should have been about minus-4 in 2015; it was plus-13, plus-12 in wins. Considering OSU was 4-0 in one-possession games, the Cowboys' 10-0 start could have gone in a completely different direction with a few kooky bounces (or less-slippery punter hands or better officiating).

That said, the Cowboys were also playing well. And after needing some good fortune to get past Texas, KSU, and WVU, OSU looked like it was starting to peak. The 'Pokes destroyed KU as you are supposed to do, then unleashed a huge comeback at Texas Tech and walloped TCU by 20 (yes, with help from turnovers). Suddenly they were 9-0 and rising.

• First 9 games:
  Record: 9-0 | Avg. Percentile Performance: 82% (~top 25) | Yards per play: OSU 6.7, Opp 5.0
• Last 4 games:
  Record: 1-3 | Avg. Percentile Performance: 31% (~top 90) | Yards per play: Opp 7.2, OSU 5.7

OSU needed another big comeback to survive against an Iowa State that wasn't even playing well; then, against three top-15 teams, the Cowboys had little to offer. Baylor went on a 24-0 run to turn a tight game into a laugher (OSU scored twice in the final five minutes to cut the deficit to 10), then Oklahoma and Ole Miss outscored them by a combined 106-43.

Quarterback injuries played a role -- Rudolph suffered a foot fracture against Baylor and threw just three passes against Oklahoma (two incompletions and an interception) -- but offense wasn't the major problem. Bean tore his ACL, and without him, Ogbah's productivity waned. Suddenly OSU didn't have enough to pretend to slow down good offenses.

OSU returns a majority of last year's defensive two-deep, but without Bean or Ogbah, can the Cowboys create the havoc that coordinator Glenn Spencer prefers?

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.36	27	IsoPPP+	112.4	34
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	43.4%	45	Succ. Rt. +	100.9	70
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	26.9	12	Def. FP+	26.9	16
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.9	27	Redzone S&P+	113.6	26
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	23.8		ACTUAL	15	-8.8

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	22	38	70	34
RUSHING	114	114	109	119
PASSING	7	18	30	15
Standard Downs		83	100	73
Passing Downs		11	17	10

Q1 Rk	30	1st Down Rk	36
Q2 Rk	64	2nd Down Rk	74
Q3 Rk	40	3rd Down Rk	10
Q4 Rk	10

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Mason Rudolph	6'5, 235	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8977	264	424	3770	21	9	62.3%	30	6.6%	7.9
J.W. Walsh					57	85	787	13	1	67.1%	0	0.0%	9.3
Taylor Cornelius	6'6, 218	So.	NR	NR	2	5	8	0	0	40.0%	2	28.6%	-1.1
John Kolar	6'4, 200	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8987
Keondre Wudtee	6'4, 195	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8404

3. It's all on Mason now

New BYU offensive coordinator Ty Detmer should maybe give Mike Yurcich a call. Detmer is dealing with a potentially strange, potentially great quarterback situation, returning both 3,300-yard passer Tanner Mangum and ultra-mobile Taysom Hill.

Over much of the last two seasons, Yurcich dealt with something similar, trying to figure out how to take advantage of the talents of golden-armed Mason Rudolph and runner J.W. Walsh.

There were plenty of glitches and issues with predictability to boot (if Rudolph's in, OSU is probably passing, and if Walsh is in, OSU is probably running), but OSU's offensive improvement in 2015 proves that you can find a balance.

Walsh graduated, which means the job is all Rudolph's.

Considering that even with Walsh involved, OSU's run-pass rates skewed pass-heavy, one has to figure the Cowboys will be throwing the ball a lot. It would make sense, anyway -- Rudolph and receivers James Washington, Marcell Ateman, Jhajuan Seales, and Jalen McCleskey are ridiculously dangerous, and until proven otherwise, the running game still stinks.

A transfer with a familiar name could change that.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Chris Carson	RB	6'1, 215	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8869	131	517	4	3.9	3.0	38.2%	1	0
J.W. Walsh	QB					77	359	13	4.7	5.5	35.1%	2	0
Rennie Childs	RB	5'10, 208	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8573	72	281	2	3.9	3.7	37.5%	0	0
Barry Sanders (Stanford)	RB	5'10, 198	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9599	51	315	4	6.2	9.5	31.4%	0	0
Raymond Taylor	RB					47	297	4	6.3	6.4	42.6%	0	0
Mason Rudolph	QB	6'5, 235	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8977	37	140	1	3.8	6.2	35.1%	6	2
Jeff Carr	RB	5'7, 180	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7926	36	142	1	3.9	4.2	27.8%	1	0
Brandon Sheperd	WR					7	39	0	5.6	2.8	57.1%	0	0
Jalen McCleskey	WR	5'10, 170	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8362	4	25	0	6.3	3.3	75.0%	5	2
Sione Palelei	RB	5'9, 230	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8660
LD Brown	RB	5'9, 174	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8484
Justice Hill	RB	5'10, 171	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8443

4. Here comes another Barry Sanders

There was almost nothing good about Oklahoma State's 2015 run game. The blocking was rarely there, and when Chris Carson or Rennie Childs did find a hole, they didn't do much with it. The Cowboys managed 59 rushes of 10-plus yards (89th in FBS) and five of 30-plus (101st); Walsh and since-departed Raymond Taylor accounted for 19 of those 59 10-yarders.

The line was young; sophomores accounted for 33 of 65 starts, while seniors had zero. Simple continuity could help. But you still need someone who can burst through holes occasionally, and there is absolutely no proven explosiveness.

Stanford transfer Barry Sanders, son of the OSU legend? Quite explosive and elusive. Granted, he is an all-or-nothing back who won't help OSU's efficiency, but the Cowboys could desperately use some more big plays, and that's one thing he can deliver.

The run game doesn't have to be good for OSU to have a good offense, like last year. But competence, with the occasional big gain, could provide a distraction for a devastating passing game.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
James Washington	WR	6'0, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8451	103	53	979	51.5%	20.5%	9.5	60.2%	43.7%	2.06
David Glidden	WR					87	57	866	65.5%	17.3%	10.0	49.4%	57.5%	1.60
Marcell Ateman	WR	6'4, 215	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9006	70	45	766	64.3%	13.9%	10.9	48.6%	60.0%	1.68
Brandon Sheperd	WR					42	23	338	54.8%	8.4%	8.0	50.0%	42.9%	1.77
Jhajuan Seales	WR	6'0, 205	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8115	33	18	321	54.5%	6.6%	9.7	57.6%	42.4%	2.21
Jalen McCleskey	WR	5'10, 170	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8362	32	29	327	90.6%	6.4%	10.2	87.5%	46.9%	2.05
Austin Hays	WR	6'2, 195	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	30	22	200	73.3%	6.0%	6.7	56.7%	60.0%	0.97
Chris Carson	RB	6'1, 215	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8869	24	17	170	70.8%	4.8%	7.1	45.8%	41.7%	1.52
Blake Jarwin	HB	6'5, 248	Sr.	NR	NR	22	17	200	77.3%	4.4%	9.1	54.5%	63.6%	1.34
Jeff Carr	RB	5'7, 180	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7926	14	11	43	78.6%	2.8%	3.1	71.4%	28.6%	1.09
Chris Lacy	WR	6'3, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8472	13	8	120	61.5%	2.6%	9.2	76.9%	61.5%	1.41
Jeremy Seaton	FB					11	7	88	63.6%	2.2%	8.0	54.5%	54.5%	1.45
Rennie Childs	RB	5'10, 208	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8573	8	8	66	100.0%	1.6%	8.3	12.5%	25.0%	2.62
Zac Veatch	HB	6'3, 265	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8609	6	5	72	83.3%	1.2%	12.0	100.0%	66.7%	1.64
Keenen Brown	HB	6'3, 242	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8932
Jordan Frazier	HB	6'4, 265	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7973
Tyrell Alexander	WR	6'1, 170	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8696
Dillon Stoner	WR	6'0, 176	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8395

5. One of the country's 10 best passing attacks?

When Oklahoma State hit its stride in late-October, James Washington was the primary reason. He was already on pace for a good season, but against Kansas, Texas Tech, and TCU, he went nuclear: 15 catches, 487 yards, six touchdowns. He had another 12 for 257 against Baylor and OU.

Washington was one of the best receivers in the country over the second half of 2015, and despite the loss of David Glidden and Brandon Sheperd, the sky is the limit for OSU's receiving corps. The top four returnees averaged 11 catches per game and 10.1 yards per target, and Washington, Ateman, and Seales enter their third year with Rudolph. As long as the 'Pokes don't become completely one-dimensional, this passing game should be one of the nation's 10 best.

And then there's the matter of the Cowboy Back, an H-back position that Gundy and Yurcich introduced in 2015. It was perhaps an underutilized efficiency option -- Blake Jarwin and Zac Veatch combined for a 79 percent catch rate and a 64 percent catch rate -- and could become a bigger piece of the redzone puzzle now that Walsh's read-option abilities are gone. Plus, former four-star signee Keenen Brown could enter the C-B rotation.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	76	2.4	2.2	38.3%	64.4%	22.0%	112.0	6.2%	5.1%
Rank	127	122	124	75	75	96	45	88	19

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Victor Salako	LT	6'6, 335	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	13	36
Michael Wilson	LG	6'6, 305	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9032	13	21
Zachary Crabtree	RT	6'7, 310	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8569	13	21
Paul Lewis	RG					6	19
Brad Lundblade	C	6'3, 300	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8115	13	14
Jesse Robinson	RG	6'5, 315	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8364	7	9
Matthew Mucha	C	6'5, 300	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8210	0	0
Lemaefe Galea'i	LG	6'4, 325	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.0000	0	0
Colby Hegwood	C					0	0
Brandon Pertile	RT	6'4, 315	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8275	0	0
Johnny Wilson	RG	6'3, 305	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8591
Marcus Keyes	LT	6'3, 300	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8073
Larry Williams	LG	6'4, 318	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8550
Shane Richards	OL	6'8, 330	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8217
Tramonda Moore	OL	6'4, 350	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9466
Tyler Brown	OL	6'6, 300	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8499

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.31	90	IsoPPP+	105.3	46
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	41.1%	64	Succ. Rt. +	109.4	38
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	31.1	42	Off. FP+	31.1	39
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.8	99	Redzone S&P+	94.7	89
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	19.6		ACTUAL	28.0	+8.4

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	100	43	38	46
RUSHING	87	51	36	62
PASSING	95	42	39	50
Standard Downs		41	32	46
Passing Downs		45	31	51

Q1 Rk	52	1st Down Rk	32
Q2 Rk	89	2nd Down Rk	56
Q3 Rk	17	3rd Down Rk	56
Q4 Rk	33

6. Not great, not terrible

The list of extreme strengths and weaknesses for OSU's defense in 2015 is short.

• Really good: passing-downs pass rush
• Really bad: short yardage, red zone

That's about it. Glenn Spencer's D was ... fine. Texas Tech would kill for "fine," but Spencer and OSU set the bar really high in 2013 and have failed to clear it for two straight years.

Spencer tried to be as aggressive as ever last year, and opponents knew it -- they threw more frequently than normal on standard downs and ran more frequently on passing downs, both ways to keep an aggressive defense on its heels. OSU improved in the second half of most games but got burned too much early on for gambles to pay off.

It's hard to get a read on what the Cowboys are capable of. The secondary is quite experienced, with the return of two seniors (Jordan Sterns, Ashton Lampkin), three juniors (Tre Flowers, Ramond Richards, Jerel Morrow), and senior Auburn transfer Derrick Moncrief. The linebacking corps returns two starters (Jordan Burton and Chad Whitener) who combined for 16.5 tackles for loss a year ago. Every tackle is back, including quick-for-his-size junior Vincent Taylor and four-star sophomore Darrion Daniels. That suggests great things.

The two most important play-makers -- Ogbah and Bean -- are gone. And we saw last year that losing just Bean rendered OSU feckless against good offenses.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	105.2	3.04	3.33	40.6%	71.2%	19.2%	133.3	6.3%	13.8%
Rank	42	89	74	90	97	80	20	24	2

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Emmanuel Ogbah	DE					13	54.0	6.6%	17.5	13.0	0	4	3	0
Vincent Taylor	DT	6'3, 310	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8944	13	39.0	4.7%	8.5	5.0	0	1	0	0
Jimmy Bean	DE					8	22.5	2.7%	10.5	5.5	0	0	0	0
Jordan Brailford	DE	6'3, 245	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8879	10	20.5	2.5%	3.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Trace Clark	DE					12	18.5	2.2%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Motekiai Maile	DT	6'3, 315	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8706	13	16.5	2.0%	2.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Darrion Daniels	DT	6'3, 305	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9032	13	13.5	1.6%	2.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Jarrell Owens	DE	6'3, 270	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8735	13	9.5	1.2%	3.0	3.0	0	1	1	0
Eric Davis	DT	6'3, 305	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8738	13	6.5	0.8%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Ben Hughes	DT	6'1, 320	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8839
Vili Leveni	DT	6'4, 290	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8153
Trey Carter	DE	6'3, 285	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8807
Cole Walterscheid	DE	6'5, 254	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8363
Taaj Bakari	DT	6'1, 305	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8489
Tralund Webber	DE	6'5, 250	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8418
Cameron Murray	DT	6'2, 280	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8265

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jordan Burton	SLB	6'2, 215	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8373	13	80.5	9.8%	9.0	3.5	1	0	1	0
Chad Whitener	MLB	6'0, 248	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8426	13	75.5	9.2%	7.5	2.0	2	0	1	0
Seth Jacobs	WLB					13	53.5	6.5%	8.5	1.0	2	1	0	0
Devante Averette	WLB	5'11, 230	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8463	13	25.5	3.1%	3.5	2.0	2	0	0	1
Kirk Tucker	SLB	6'1, 200	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8600	13	18.5	2.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Ryan Simmons	MLB					5	11.5	1.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Gyasi Akem	WLB	6'2, 230	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9127	8	6.5	0.8%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Josh Mabin	MLB	6'1, 240	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8737	5	3.0	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kris Catlin	LB					7	2.0	0.2%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Justin Phillips	SLB	6'0, 235	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8451
Kevin Henry	LB	6'0, 225	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8904
Calvin Bundage	LB	6'2, 193	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8770
Amen Ogbongbemiga	LB	6'0, 207	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8252

7. The wrong two players to lose?

Just because you weren't ready as a freshman doesn't mean you'll never be ready. In backup roles, sophomores Jordan Brailford and Jarrell Owens did combine for 6.5 TFLs and four sacks, even if OSU's defensive effectiveness trailed off late with the more work they got. Maybe with typical year-to-year progression, they can turn into havoc players in 2016. They could get help from both a JUCO transfer (Tralund Webber) and fellow sophomores Trey Carter and Cole Walterscheid. [Update: Oklahoma State landed another JUCO transfer in defensive tackle D.Q. Osborne, who was released from his letter of intent at Baylor.]

If they do, all other pieces could fall into place. Ogbah and Bean carried an inexperienced front seven that saw three freshmen, three sophomores, and two transfers in the rotation. Now that players like Darrion Daniels, SFA transfer Jordan Burton and Cal transfer Chad Whitener have all been in the system for a year, they could begin to more effectively play the attacking style Spencer prefers.

Among the guaranteed contributors, only Burton and tackle Motekiai Maile are seniors. If this unit doesn't round into shape this fall, it probably will the next.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jordan Sterns	FS	6'0, 200	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8658	13	89.5	10.9%	1.5	0	2	3	1	0
Tre Flowers	SS	6'3, 198	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8367	13	74.5	9.1%	3	0	2	7	1	0
Kevin Peterson	CB					12	38.5	4.7%	4.5	0	1	6	0	0
Ashton Lampkin	CB	6'0, 190	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8559	12	28.0	3.4%	1	0	1	5	0	0
Derrick Moncrief (Auburn)	SS	6'2, 220	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9044	13	20.5	2.9%	0	0	0	1	1	0
Michael Hunter	CB					13	19.0	2.3%	1	0	2	1	0	0
Miketavius Jones	CB					13	15.0	1.8%	2.5	2.5	0	0	1	0
Ramon Richards	CB	5'11, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8251	12	14.5	1.8%	1	0	2	2	1	0
Jerel Morrow	SS	5'10, 200	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8816	13	13.0	1.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Kenneth Edison-McGruder	FS	6'0, 215	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8742	12	11.5	1.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Deric Robertson	S					12	11.0	1.3%	0	0	0	0	0	1
Darius Curry	CB	6'1, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8587	12	9.0	1.1%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Chris Hardeman	CB					10	4.5	0.5%	0	0	0	0	1	0
Za'Carrius Green	FS	5'11, 205	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8354
Malik Kearse	CB	6'0, 160	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8274
Rodarius Williams	CB	6'0, 172	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8529
Madre Harper	CB	6'2, 167	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8491
A.J. Green	CB	6'1, 160	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8465

8. Got enough cornerbacks?

OSU both loses a lot and returns a lot in the back. Eleven DBs saw reasonable playing time; four are gone, including active corner Kevin Peterson, but that means seven return. Moncrief joins the rotation as well.

I have few concerns about the safeties. Jordan Sterns and Tre Flowers (combined: 4.5 TFLs, 4 INTs, 10 PBUs) have been regulars for a couple of years, and junior Jerel Morrow has gotten plenty of reps. Even if Moncrief isn't ready for a starring role, he only has to be a decent contributor.

Cornerback is a bit of a worry. Peterson, Michael Hunter, and Miketavius Jones are all gone, leaving 17th-year senior Ashton Lampkin, Ramon Richards, and unknowns. Darius Curry has seen some playing time over the last couple of years, and the February signing class could help quickly, either because of JUCO Malik Kearse or a mid-three-star freshman like Rodarius Williams or A.J. Green. But if there's an issue in the secondary, it will be on the edges.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Zach Sinor	5'10, 215	So.	75	40.1	3	31	28	78.7%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Ben Grogan	6'1, 190	Sr.	92	60.1	22	2	23.9%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Ben Grogan	6'1, 190	Sr.	61-64	12-14	85.7%	4-6	66.7%
Matt Hockett	6'2, 215	So.	1-1	0-1	0.0%	0-0	N/A

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Jeff Carr	KR	5'7, 180	So.	29	21.5	0
Brandon Sheperd	KR			5	20.6	0
Jalen McCleskey	PR	5'10, 170	So.	22	5.0	1

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	79
Field Goal Efficiency	81
Punt Return Success Rate	118
Kick Return Success Rate	57
Punt Success Rate	35
Kickoff Success Rate	113

9. Good field position despite special teams

We're used to OSU having dynamite return men, but that wasn't really the case in 2016. All-or-nothing Jalen McCleskey took one punt 67 yards and gained just 44 yards in 21 other returns; meanwhile, kick returner Jeff Carr was the opposite, gaining decent yardage each time but rarely going a long way. Barry Sanders gives Gundy another weapon to potentially utilize here -- in three years at Stanford, he returned nine punts and two kickoffs -- but there are no guarantees.

The good news is that, despite iffy returns and a bad run game, OSU still managed strong field position in 2015. OSU ranked 25th in FBS (and first in the Big 12) in field position margin at plus-4.2 yards per possession. Just imagine what could happen with better special teams. Punter Zach Sinor could be a weapon for years, but the rest of this unit needs help.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
3-Sep	SE Louisiana	NR	45.9	100%
10-Sep	Central Michigan	85	18.8	86%
17-Sep	Pittsburgh	29	5.8	63%
24-Sep	at Baylor	13	-7.3	34%
1-Oct	Texas	34	6.9	65%
8-Oct	Iowa State	71	14.8	80%
22-Oct	at Kansas	112	21.5	89%
29-Oct	West Virginia	33	6.9	65%
5-Nov	at Kansas State	67	7.1	66%
12-Nov	Texas Tech	43	9.6	71%
19-Nov	at TCU	31	-0.6	49%
3-Dec	at Oklahoma	4	-12.9	23%
Projected wins: 7.9

Five-Year F/+ Rk	30.3% (16)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	40 / 38
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	13 / -4.2
2015 TO Luck/Game	+6.6
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	74% (79%, 69%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	8.6 (1.4)

10. Another fast start on the way?

OSU is projected 23rd in S&P+ this year, which probably makes sense. The Cowboys return solid experience on both sides, and recent program history suggests a further rebound from 2014 should be expected.

If the Cowboys can be something more than 23rd, however, we might not know for a while. The Cowboys are scheduled to play only two projected top-25 teams, and while there are five more opponents projected between 29th and 43rd (the middle of this conference is pretty deep), four come to Stillwater.

OSU has a better than 50 percent chance of winning in nine of 12 games. This schedule is custom-built for another run at nine or 10 wins, but the Cowboys better mind their Ps and Qs. If the defense can't generate enough pressure, or if the run game is even worse without Walsh, a schedule full of 60-percent win probabilities could turn quickly on the 'Pokes.