My numbers think TCU's a top-35 team in 2016. I disagree. They might be top-10.

Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year's team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year's roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

1. The exception that proves the rule

Sometimes surviving is enough.

By the end of the 2015 regular season, TCU was playing without its two star receivers, its best defensive end, and seemingly most of its linebacking corps and secondary. The depth chart for the Alamo Bowl featured 17 freshmen and 12 sophomores. A backup strong safety had played middle linebacker for most of the year. Its star quarterback had missed time with injury and then got suspended for the bowl.

That Gary Patterson's Horned Frogs trailed Oregon 31-0 at halftime was only a bit jarring. Teams sometimes just run out of gas. As Ole Miss proved after getting shellacked by TCU the year before, then going 10-3 in 2015 (and doing the bowl shellacking itself), there is only temporary shame in getting blown out in the postseason. TCU's season just needed to end.

Lady Luck turned against TCU in every way imaginable. In a way, that made sense. As I wrote in 2015's preview, luck had played a large role in converting the Horned Frogs from an excellent team into one that nearly made 2014's Playoff. They dealt with fewer injuries than almost anyone in the country in 2014, and they had benefited from Houston-level good fortune in turnovers (plus-6.3 points per game of turnovers luck, per my numbers).

In 2015, they dealt with more injuries than almost anybody. Turnovers luck swung eight points in the other direction, to minus-1.8 points per game.

Still, they had gone 10-2, with a funky deflection to beat Texas Tech and a huge comeback to beat Kansas State. With their backup quarterback, they barely beat an absolutely dreadful Kansas. But their high points were ridiculously high (a 50-7 win over Texas, 40-10 over West Virginia), and even at the end of the regular season, when attrition was clearly taking a toll, they came within a missed two-point conversion of beating CFP semifinalist Oklahoma in Norman, then outlasted Baylor in a monsoon.

And then they unleashed a 31-point comeback against Oregon and beat the Ducks in overtime. All the bad luck and freshmen in the world, and they finished 11-2 and 26th in S&P+. And now all of those freshmen and sophomores are sophomores and juniors.

The S&P+ projections that I put out in February didn't take into account players returning from injury. I hadn't had enough time to compile that information yet. They don't take into account the stats of incoming transfers either. I will put out an updated projection sometime in August, and when I do, I'm figuring TCU will benefit.

The Horned Frogs' No. 31 projection in no way reflects what I assume to be their capabilities in 2016. As I was compiling the stats and tables below, I got the impression I was putting together the preview of a top-10 or top-15 team.

I like where I've taken the S&P+ projections through the years, but consider TCU the exception that proves the rule. The Horned Frogs are pretty used to that. They won the Rose Bowl in 2010 as a Mountain West team. They nearly made the 2014 Playoff a year after going 4-8. They don't follow college football's normal order. And I cannot wait to see what they do this fall.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 11-2 | Adj. Record: 11-2 | Final F/+ Rk: 19 | Final S&P+ Rk: 26
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
3-Sep	at Minnesota	55	23-17	W	70%	89%	-3.1
12-Sep	Stephen F. Austin	N/A	70-7	W	95%	100%	+18.6
19-Sep	SMU	106	56-37	W	82%	100%	-18.0	-18.5
26-Sep	at Texas Tech	60	55-52	W	57%	68%	-7.3	-4.0
3-Oct	Texas	68	50-7	W	99%	100%	+27.3	+28.0
10-Oct	at Kansas State	81	52-45	W	70%	94%	+10.5	-2.5
17-Oct	at Iowa State	79	45-21	W	84%	99%	+14.8	+3.0
29-Oct	West Virginia	31	40-10	W	94%	100%	+25.6	+16.0
7-Nov	at Oklahoma State	40	29-49	L	10%	0%	-24.4	-25.5
14-Nov	Kansas	127	23-17	W	30%	72%	-34.6	-39.0
21-Nov	at Oklahoma	4	29-30	L	63%	48%	+13.0	-1.0
27-Nov	Baylor	14	28-21	W	74%	70%	+10.4	+8.5
2-Jan	vs. Oregon	23	47-41	W	56%	55%	+3.7	+6.0

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	38.6	18	27.1	58
Points Per Game	42.1	7	27.2	64

2. A justifiable fade

Even with the near-upset of OU and the comeback against Oregon, TCU became a shadow of its former self. The Horned Frogs were ultra-resilient but flawed, thin, and young.

• First 8 games:
  Record: 8-0 | Avg. percentile performance: 81% (~top 25) | Yards per play: TCU 7.7, Opp 5.1 (+2.6)
• Last 5 games:
  Record: 3-2 | Avg. percentile performance: 47% (~top 65) | Yards per play: TCU 5.4, Opp 5.2 (+0.2)

When a team gets hot late, then returns the primary reasons for that hot streak the next year, we can take a small-sample rise as a hint of what's to come.

Alternatively, when a team fades late in the year but seems to have addressed the causes of the slump, it doesn't have to mean much moving forward.

TCU must replace a ton of senior difference-makers -- QB Trevone Boykin, RB Aaron Green, WRs Josh Doctson and Kolby Listenbee, three all-conference offensive linemen, safety Derrick Kindred. But through transfers and the depth caused by having to play so many guys last year, the Frogs seem more well-equipped than I anticipated of thriving after them. The offensive line is a concern, and while there are appealing candidates, we won't know that the quarterback position is settled until we see it. But the potential is off the charts.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.32	33	IsoPPP+	116.2	26
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	47.9%	15	Succ. Rt. +	105.7	52
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	28.0	33	Def. FP+	28.5	47
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.8	39	Redzone S&P+	101.3	71
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	19.8		ACTUAL	19	-0.8

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	3	28	52	26
RUSHING	24	70	71	70
PASSING	8	19	31	18
Standard Downs		29	54	21
Passing Downs		39	47	41

Q1 Rk	18	1st Down Rk	19
Q2 Rk	85	2nd Down Rk	34
Q3 Rk	29	3rd Down Rk	13
Q4 Rk	5

3. They kept Meacham and Cumbie

Texas' Charlie Strong tried to steal TCU offensive co-coordinator Sonny Cumbie. Fellow co-coordinator Doug Meacham interviewed for the North Texas head coaching position and was at one point considered likely to end up with the job.

Patterson has lost key assistants before, and with varying degrees of impact. Offensive coordinator Justin Fuente left after 2011, and the offense endured a two-year slump until Meacham and Cumbie came to town. Longtime defensive coordinator Dick Bumpas retired last winter, and while the defense mainly regressed because of injuries and youth, it still regressed.

Patterson did lose one-year defensive co-coordinator Demontie Cross to Missouri, but he kept Cumbie and Meacham for at least one more year. Patterson has a plan for everything, and he probably knows what he's going to do when these guys leave for head coaching jobs. But with a few new pieces to break in (and one hell of a receiving corps), keeping them for one more year could pay off beautifully.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Trevone Boykin					257	396	3575	31	10	64.9%	12	2.9%	8.6
Kenny Hill (Texas A&M)	6'1, 205	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9090	214	321	2649	23	8	66.7%	14	4.2%	7.6
Bram Kohlhausen					55	88	720	5	2	62.5%	3	3.3%	7.8
Foster Sawyer	6'5, 230	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8891	11	27	155	2	3	40.7%	3	10.0%	4.9
Grayson Muehlstein	6'4, 210	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8550
Brennen Wooten	6'1, 188	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8575

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Aaron Green	TB					245	1272	11	5.2	4.5	42.0%	2	1
Trevone Boykin	QB					111	671	9	6.0	5.2	47.7%	4	1
Kyle Hicks	TB	5'10, 210	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9165	56	262	3	4.7	4.2	37.5%	0	0
Trevorris Johnson	TB	5'11, 226	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8553	42	262	0	6.2	4.0	50.0%	1	1
Kenny Hill (Texas A&M)	QB	6'1, 205	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9090	38	269	0	7.1	7.1	47.4%	3	1
KaVontae Turpin	WR	5'9, 153	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8505	20	116	0	5.8	3.8	50.0%	3	1
Colten Christensen	TB					16	66	1	4.1	1.1	37.5%	0	0
Shaun Nixon	TB/WR	5'10, 195	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9229	16	66	0	4.1	3.5	37.5%	0	0
Bram Kohlhausen	QB					15	78	2	5.2	2.6	46.7%	1	0
Foster Sawyer	QB	6'5, 230	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8891	11	62	0	5.6	2.1	54.5%	0	0
Sewo Olonilua	TB	6'3, 225	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9399
Darius Anderson	TB	5'11, 194	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8715

4. Where did the big run plays go?

Quarterback is a question mark until it's not. At the end of spring ball, the race for the starting spot was a tie between two high-upside, potentially low-downside candidates:

• Kenny Hill, who erupted over the first half of 2014 at Texas A&M, then faded, lost his job, and transferred.
• Foster Sawyer, who completed just one of seven passes against Kansas and eight of 18 against Oklahoma.

Even with Hill's struggles in 2014, he still finished the season having completed 67 percent of his passes while rushing for 7.1 yards per non-sack carry. That is a staggering combination. Sawyer proved he could steal a few yards here and there with his legs, and if harnessed properly, he's got a strong arm and potential accuracy.

I felt like Hill got an unfair shake in College Station, blamed a disproportionate amount for a midseason A&M slump. He could be very good, and if Sawyer ends up beating him out, that says more about Sawyer than Hill.

Either way, TCU is going from seasoned QB to new starter. A good running game would be a boon for any new starter, but that might be a problem area. While the Horned Frogs were reasonably efficient on the ground, they didn't generate nearly as many big plays as expected. Those they did get seemed to come from Boykin and not the actual backs. We'd seen big plays from Aaron Green before, but few came in 2015.

If Hill wins the QB job, he'll provide a mobile element, but whoever starts at tailback, be it junior Kyle Hicks or sophomore Shaun Nixon (who temporarily moved to wideout last year), could help a lot by taking advantage of open-field opportunities. They might be hard to come by early, with the loss of four 2015 starters on the line.

But at the very least, TCU does return five players with starting experience up front, and with the return of tackle Aviante Collins from injury, along with 2015 starter Joseph Noteboom, the Frogs are set at both tackle positions.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Josh Doctson	WR-Z					107	79	1327	73.8%	21.7%	12.4	60.7%	65.4%	1.87
Shaun Nixon	TB/WR	5'10, 195	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9229	69	47	501	68.1%	14.0%	7.3	62.3%	42.0%	1.50
KaVontae Turpin	SLOT	5'9, 153	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8505	61	45	649	73.8%	12.4%	10.6	68.9%	49.2%	2.06
Kolby Listenbee	WR-X					53	30	597	56.6%	10.8%	11.3	71.7%	50.9%	2.09
Deante' Gray (2014)	WR-X	5'10, 183	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8700	50	36	582	72.0%	9.8%	11.6	72.0%	N/A	N/A
Ty Slanina (2014)	WR	6'0, 195	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8731	46	32	383	69.6%	9.0%	8.3	56.5%	N/A	N/A
Desmon White	SLOT	5'7, 160	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8089	31	19	258	61.3%	6.3%	8.3	67.7%	51.6%	1.45
Emanuel Porter	WR-Z	6'4, 210	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8833	30	14	213	46.7%	6.1%	7.1	66.7%	43.3%	1.56
Jarrison Stewart	WR-Y	6'0, 188	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8619	29	21	265	72.4%	5.9%	9.1	48.3%	62.1%	1.41
John Diarse (LSU)	WR	6'1, 209	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9186	28	13	137	46.4%	10.6%	4.9	39.3%	35.7%	1.11
Aaron Green	TB					24	16	117	66.7%	4.9%	4.9	62.5%	41.7%	1.01
Kyle Hicks	TB	5'10, 210	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9165	22	13	104	59.1%	4.5%	4.7	40.9%	31.8%	1.32
Ja'Juan Story	WR-Z					16	9	84	56.3%	3.3%	5.3	75.0%	50.0%	0.91
Jaelan Austin	WR-Z	6'2, 200	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8600	14	10	137	71.4%	2.8%	9.8	35.7%	64.3%	1.46
Tony James	WR-X					8	3	39	37.5%	1.6%	4.9	87.5%	37.5%	1.06
Charlie Reid	TE	6'4, 235	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8600	3	3	24	100.0%	0.6%	8.0	33.3%	66.7%	1.29
Corey McBride	WR	6'1, 187	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8501
Andre Petties-Wilson	WR	6'1, 190	So.	NR	NR
Taj Williams	WR-Z	6'3, 180	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9115
Ryan Parker	WR	6'2, 180	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9050
Isaiah Graham	WR-X	6'1, 185	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9115
Camron Williams	WR	6'3, 210	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8791
Dylan Thomas	WR	6'1, 186	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8686
TreVontae Hights	WR	6'3, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8569
Artayvious Lynn	TE	6'6, 247	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8368

5. So many options

Whether Hill or Sawyer is at quarterback, the only thing that might slow down this passing game is a bad running game. If the new QB is facing too many passing downs, that could be a complication. But with this receiving corps, you or I at QB could make a few plays.

TCU got a head start on replacing Doctson and Listenbee when both got hurt last year. Considering backups Deante' Gray and Ty Slanina were already out as well, that forced Meacham and Cumbie to dip down the depth chart. The offense didn't fade as much as it could have. KaVontae Turpin was a stick of dynamite in the slot, fellow freshman Jarrison Stewart produced a 62 percent success rate, and then-sophomores Desmon White (efficiency) and Emanuel Porter (explosiveness) showed at least one-dimensional potential.

They're all back, as is sophomore Jaelan Austin, who caught four passes for 67 yards in the Alamo Bowl and was listed as the starting X receiver at the end of spring.

Add to this group LSU transfer John Diarse and two four-star JUCOs (Taj Williams, Ryan Parker), and you've got enough candidates to ensure that the top three or four receivers are of high quality.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	99.5	3.27	3.52	43.8%	66.7%	15.9%	185.4	1.9%	6.0%
Rank	74	18	35	17	58	12	15	11	38

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Joey Hunt	C					11	37	2015 1st All-Big 12
Halapoulivaati Vaitai	LT					11	31	2015 2nd All-Big 12
Brady Foltz	RG					12	25	2015 2nd All-Big 12
Jamelle Naff	LG					11	26
Aviante Collins	RT	6'6, 305	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8398	0	23
Joseph Noteboom	LT	6'5, 315	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8482	13	13
Matt Pryor	RG	6'7, 350	Jr.	NR	NR	4	4
Austin Schlottman	C	6'6, 300	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8220	3	3
Patrick Morris	LG	6'3, 300	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8619	0	1
Bobby Thompson	LG					0	0
Garrett Altman	C	6'4, 272	Jr.	NR	NR	0	0
Ty Barrett	OL	6'5, 316	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8767	0	0
Ryan Griswold	OT	6'5, 270	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8227	0	0
Trey Elliott	LT	6'4, 285	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7944	0	0
Sam Awolope	OT	6'6, 292	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8713
Jozie Milton	C	6'2, 310	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8569
Cordel Iwuagwu	LG	6'3, 298	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8469
David Bolisomi	RT	6'6, 315	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8409
Chris Gaynor	RG	6'5, 300	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8559
Austin Myers	OL	6'5, 302	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8932
Lucas Niang	OL	6'6, 295	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8569

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.35	105	IsoPPP+	109.6	38
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	38.0%	31	Succ. Rt. +	113.9	25
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	31.7	33	Off. FP+	30.7	48
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.7	91	Redzone S&P+	119.7	14
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	24.4		ACTUAL	19.0	-5.4

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	63	28	25	38
RUSHING	81	39	45	33
PASSING	56	31	10	52
Standard Downs		26	28	29
Passing Downs		44	11	66

Q1 Rk	39	1st Down Rk	20
Q2 Rk	34	2nd Down Rk	47
Q3 Rk	12	3rd Down Rk	18
Q4 Rk	9

6. Injuries create depth

That TCU's defense was great in the second half makes no sense whatsoever. With this many freshmen, and with so few known entities, we could have assumed the Horned Frogs would come out with a decent game plan, perform well early, then fade as the opponent adjusted. Instead, it was the opposite.

Now just imagine what the Horned Frogs might do with actual depth. Every linebacker from last year's corps is back, along with 2014 backup Sammy Douglas, who lasted only one game last year before getting hurt. Six of last year's top eight defensive backs return, along with corner Ranthony Texada (hurt in Game 3) and safety Kenny Iloka (hurt in Game 2).

There's a little turnover to account for up front with the loss of ends Terrell Lathan and Mike Tuaua and tackles Davion Pierson and Tevin Lawson. But the return of James McFarland, a stud in 2014 who missed all of 2015, will help significantly.

Seriously, TCU got a combined six games out of McFarland, Texada, Iloka, and Douglas and won 11 games. That's just unfair.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	113.1	3.02	2.40	37.6%	62.3%	15.6%	96	4.4%	10.2%
Rank	19	87	7	57	43	110	70	89	20

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Josh Carraway	DE	6'4, 250	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7000	13	36.0	4.8%	11.5	9.0	0	2	1	2
James McFarland (2014)	DE	6'2, 250	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8820	13	35.0	4.8%	12.0	7.0	1	3	3	0
Aaron Curry	DT	6'2, 270	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8673	12	31.0	4.2%	4.0	3.0	0	0	0	0
Terrell Lathan	DE					12	28.0	3.8%	6.5	4.0	0	5	1	0
Davion Pierson	DT					10	25.5	3.4%	6.5	2.0	0	0	0	0
Chris Bradley	DT	6'2, 275	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8174	13	20.5	2.7%	4.5	2.0	0	1	0	0
Mike Tuaua	DE					10	17.5	2.3%	2.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Bryson Henderson	DE	6'6, 275	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8510	12	9.5	1.3%	2.5	1.5	0	0	1	0
Tevin Lawson	DT					7	8.5	1.1%	1.0	1.0	0	0	1	0
Tipa Galeai	DE	6'5, 235	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8495	7	6.0	0.8%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Breylin Mitchell	DE	6'4, 270	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8832	5	3.5	0.5%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Joseph Broadnax	DT	6'0, 300	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8593	5	3.0	0.4%	1.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
L.J. Collier	DT	6'4, 275	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8379
Casey McDermott Vai	DT	6'4, 282	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8148
Mat Boesen	DE	6'4, 235	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8680
Ross Blacklock	DT	6'4, 326	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9057

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Travin Howard	SLB	6'1, 210	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8315	13	84.0	11.3%	8.0	1.0	1	2	3	0
Ty Summers	MLB	6'2, 235	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7744	13	64.5	8.6%	4.0	1.0	1	1	0	0
Montrel Wilson	MLB	6'3, 210	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8445	12	45.5	6.1%	4.0	2.5	0	1	1	0
Sammy Douglas (2014)	SLB	6'3, 215	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8469	13	14.0	1.9%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Alec Dunham	SLB	6'1, 213	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8572	12	10.5	1.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Mike Freeze	MLB					1	6.0	0.8%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Paul Whitmill	SLB	6'0, 230	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8768
Semaj Thomas	LB	6'2, 230	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8593
Tyree Horton	LB	6'0, 225	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9081

7. James McFarland might not even start

Okay, fine, McFarland will probably start. But with the return of Josh Carraway and a nice spring from JUCO transfer Mat Boesen, he ended up listed as an *OR* starter with Boesen at the end of spring ball. That speaks volumes right there.

Tackle depth could be an issue. Aaron Curry and Chris Bradley are solid, and sophomore Breylin Mitchell had a nice spring. But compared to other areas of the defense, there appear to be fewer intriguing options in the middle. But maybe that's more of an endorsement of the rest of the defense than an indictment of the tackle position.

Linebacker is loaded. Travin Howard eventually took well to his new position after moving from safety, recording eight tackles for loss and still defensing three passes. Sophomores Ty Summers and Montrel Wilson had their moments, Douglas is back, and four-star JUCO Tyree Horton is on the way.

TCU went from brilliant to mortal against the run last year; with actual experience and depth, expect a shift back toward the former.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Derrick Kindred	FS					13	72.0	9.7%	3.5	0	2	3	2	0
Denzel Johnson	SS	6'2, 210	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7926	13	66.5	8.9%	13.5	2	1	8	0	0
Nick Orr	WS	5'10, 187	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8377	13	43.5	5.8%	3	1	1	9	1	0
Corry O'Meally	CB					13	36.5	4.9%	0.5	0.5	0	10	0	0
Ridwan Issahaku	SS	6'1, 193	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8294	13	32.0	4.3%	2	0	0	4	0	0
Ranthony Texada (2014)	CB	5'10, 170	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8500	13	28.5	3.9%	3.5	1	1	7	0	0
Torrance Mosley	CB	5'10, 160	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8382	7	18.0	2.4%	0	0	0	3	0	0
Kenny Iloka (2014)	WS	6'2, 209	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8625	13	14.5	2.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Julius Lewis	CB	5'10, 170	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8212	12	14.5	1.9%	2	0	0	4	0	0
Michael Downing	WS	5'11, 175	Jr.	NR	NR	13	13.5	1.8%	0	0	1	0	0	0
Arico Evans	SS	6'2, 204	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8176	12	5.5	0.7%	0	0	0	0	1	0
DeShawn Raymond	CB	6'1, 188	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9001	11	3.0	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Niko Small	FS	5'10, 180	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8482	12	2.5	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Steve Wesley	CB	6'0, 198	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8796
Cyd Calvin	CB	6'1, 175	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	NR
Tony James	CB	5'10, 162	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8635
Jeff Gladney	CB	6'0, 175	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8061
Markell Simmons	FS	6'1, 200	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8680
KeShawn Somerville	CB	5'10, 170	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8800
Innis Gaines	S	6'2, 190	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8614

8. Don't even try

Texada was emerging as a standout cornerback when he got hurt. His injury meant CB duties went to Corry O'Meally on one side and a combination of Torrance Mosley and Julius Lewis (together: 2 TFLs, 7 PBUs) on the other. That O'Meally's gone hurts a bit, but with Texada back and Mosley and Lewis no longer a sophomore and freshman, respectively, things looked good on the edges heading into spring ball.

Lewis was lost for the season with a conditioning injury, however, which forced others like four-star sophomore DeShawn Raymond and redshirt freshman Jeff Gladney to step up. By all accounts, they did so.

The good news is that, even if corner is merely good, perhaps the best set of safeties in the country will be more than capable of helping out. Denzel Johnson combined 13.5 tackles for loss with nine passes defensed last year, and thanks to the return of Iloka, TCU has three seasoned pieces for the other two starting spots, plus JUCO Markell Simmons.

TCU's pass defense was as efficient as ever in 2015, ranking 10th in Passing Success Rate+. Inexperience led to a few more big-play glitches than normal; I don't expect that to continue.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Ethan Perry			66	39.0	4	22	27	74.2%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Jaden Oberkrom			92	62.4	56	1	60.9%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Jaden Oberkrom			59-60	11-14	78.6%	10-11	90.9%
Jonathan Song	5'10, 170	So.	1-1	0-0	N/A	0-0	N/A

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
KaVontae Turpin	KR	5'9, 153	So.	27	27.0	0
Kolby Listenbee	KR			4	19.0	0
KaVontae Turpin	PR	5'9, 153	So.	17	10.6	1

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	18
Field Goal Efficiency	17
Punt Return Success Rate	68
Kick Return Success Rate	53
Punt Success Rate	85
Kickoff Success Rate	20

9. Losing Oberkrom hurts a lot

I can to some degree write off turnover on the offensive and defensive lines. I can explain why players like Boykin and Doctson won't be missed as much as we anticipated. But I cannot understate how important Jaden Oberkrom was to TCU. That he has graduated could hurt a lot.

You never know how good a new kicker will be -- it's almost a total crapshoot -- but Oberkrom was maybe the best long-ball kicker in the country (outside of Florida State's Roberto Aguayo, at least); TCU lost just three games in 2015-16, but that could have easily been five or six without him.

In KaVontae Turpin, TCU does return one electric special teams play-maker.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
3-Sep	South Dakota State	NR	27.8	95%
10-Sep	Arkansas	17	-2.0	45%
17-Sep	Iowa State	71	11.9	75%
23-Sep	at SMU	98	12.9	77%
1-Oct	Oklahoma	4	-8.8	31%
8-Oct	at Kansas	112	18.7	86%
22-Oct	at West Virginia	33	-3.0	43%
29-Oct	Texas Tech	43	6.7	65%
5-Nov	at Baylor	13	-10.2	28%
19-Nov	Oklahoma State	23	0.6	51%
25-Nov	at Texas	34	-3.0	43%
3-Dec	Kansas State	67	11.2	74%
Projected wins: 7.1

Five-Year F/+ Rk	27.5% (18)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	31 / 35
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	0 / 4.6
2015 TO Luck/Game	-1.8
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	48% (29%, 68%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	10.0 (1.0)

10. This is a top-15 team

Every team has a list of ifs, the caveats that will make the difference between a disappointing season and an incredible one. Considering what TCU loses from last year's squad, I assumed the list of ifs separating the Horned Frogs from a conference title run would be pretty long. But it really isn't.

• IF ... QB is between competent and solid ...
• IF ... the offensive line is competent ...
• IF ... injuries don't hit tackle and cornerback too hard ...

... then TCU is a Big 12 contender.

That's not a bad list, especially considering the potential at QB. And if the Frogs find another competent kicker to perhaps decide one or two close games, then they could be a Playoff contender again.

The numbers don't tell the same story. The way I create my S&P+ projections undersold how much talent TCU returns, especially on defense.

I used the numbers to introduce the idea that we might've been too high on TCU a year ago (and we were), but I'm going against them this time. Iffy projection or not, this is a top-15 team. The question is whether it can be even more.