As long as Baker Mayfield's healthy, Oklahoma's a Playoff contender again

Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year's team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year's roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

1. The indefatigable Bob Stoops

This was some significant change. The moves make sense, but the amount of change could backfire; the staff could struggle to gel, the defense could regress and the offense could find it doesn't quite have the right air raid personnel.

OU isn't standing still. The new staff could press just enough new buttons to make OU an immediate Big 12 contender. Stoops' house could fall down around him quickly. If forced to make a prediction, I lean former.

Remember last year, when the marriage between Oklahoma and head coach Stoops had finally gone stale? When the writing was on the wall? When it was time for a fresh start? When the Sooners were miles behind Baylor and TCU, the new dominant forces in the Big 12?

No? Me neither. Let's just all pretend the 2014-15 offseason did not occur. It's best for all parties.

When you stay in the same job for long enough, the narrative will change a few times. But for Stoops and his Sooners, it's an almost annual occurrence. They were back! after going 11-2 in 2013 with a Sugar Bowl win over Alabama. They were toast! after a disappointing 8-5 campaign in 2014. Now they're back! after another 11-win season and Playoff appearance.

The fluctuations have been particularly funny, considering how steady the product on the field has been. On paper, OU has been the most predictably good team this side of Tuscaloosa. The Sooners ranked between first and seventh in S&P+ every year from 2006-12, stumbled to 27th in 2013 (and got lucky to win 11 games), rebounded to 13th in 2014 (and got unlucky to lose five), and reasserted themselves as a top-five team last fall. They were on the right side of the bounces again but didn't play in many games close enough to be affected.

Not everything was perfect in Norman last year. The handling of Joe Mixon's arrest, suspension, and reinstatement was, among other things, too guarded -- by quarantining him from media for so long, they created a terribly awkward situation when he was mandated to show up for media day before the Orange Bowl.

On the field, though there were only two losses, both were demoralizing. In between a 20-point win over WVU and a 55-point win over Kansas State, the Sooners laid an egg in Dallas, falling behind Texas 14-0 in the first quarter and succumbing, 24-17. And while they shouldn't have been four-point favorites in the Orange Bowl, they were, which made Clemson's resounding victory seem like more than simply a loss to a better team.

Still, a year after shuffling his staff, Stoops is once again in charge of the most proven entity in the Big 12, a favorite to reach another Playoff and win a Big 12 title. He's won nine conference rings, engineered 10 top-10 finishes, and won at least 10 games in a season 13 times. He has survived advances from usurpers, and he is still the reigning king of the conference. You may knock the king down here and there, but he always gets back up.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 11-2 | Adj. Record: 11-2 | Final F/+ Rk: 4 | Final S&P+ Rk: 4
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
5-Sep	Akron	84	41-3	W	97%	100%	+12.3	+6.5
12-Sep	at Tennessee	18	31-24	W	85%	83%	+6.9	+6.0
19-Sep	Tulsa	95	52-38	W	84%	96%	-12.4	-17.0
3-Oct	West Virginia	31	44-24	W	97%	100%	+18.0	+13.0
10-Oct	vs. Texas	68	17-24	L	45%	37%	-35.1	-24.5
17-Oct	at Kansas State	81	55-0	W	99%	100%	+52.9	+50.0
24-Oct	Texas Tech	60	63-27	W	94%	100%	+19.7	+22.0
31-Oct	at Kansas	127	62-7	W	95%	100%	+16.6	+15.0
7-Nov	Iowa State	79	52-16	W	96%	100%	+17.0	+10.5
14-Nov	at Baylor	14	44-34	W	82%	67%	+12.2	+12.5
21-Nov	TCU	19	30-29	W	72%	52%	-13.0	+1.0
28-Nov	at Oklahoma State	40	58-23	W	95%	99%	+29.5	+28.0
31-Dec	vs. Clemson	2	17-37	L	41%	4%	-18.2	-24.0

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	42.4	8	19.8	16
Points Per Game	43.5	4	22.0	28

2. Little left to chance

Oklahoma benefited from nearly three points per game in good turnovers luck, but that only matters much when you're playing in close games. Only three of OU's 13 contests were decided by one possession, and only five were decided by under 20 points.

OU was one of the more consistently excellent teams in the country. But the Sooners didn't go halfway. When they suffered a glitch, it was an all-caps-and-italics GLITCH.

• Oklahoma in wins:
  Avg. percentile performance: 91% (~top 12) | Avg. win expectancy: 91% | Yards per play: OU 7.2, Opp 4.6 (+2.6) | Avg. performance vs. S&P+ projection: +14.5 PPG
• Oklahoma in losses:
  Avg. percentile performance: 43% (~top 75) | Avg. win expectancy: 21% | Yards per play: Opp 5.6, OU 4.7 (-0.9) | Avg. performance vs. S&P+ projection: -26.7 PPG

S&P+ had a pretty good read on a lot of teams last year, but both S&P+ and Vegas were consistently underestimating the Sooners, either how good they would look or how bad.

Still, it was mostly good. And that should be the case again in 2016 ... as long as a certain star quarterback stays healthy.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.40	11	IsoPPP+	124.0	11
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	46.3%	19	Succ. Rt. +	115.5	16
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	28.0	32	Def. FP+	26.9	15
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.9	26	Redzone S&P+	111.3	32
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	16.3		ACTUAL	18	+1.7

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	7	12	16	11
RUSHING	22	28	58	15
PASSING	17	11	6	19
Standard Downs		4	17	1
Passing Downs		73	27	92

Q1 Rk	43	1st Down Rk	10
Q2 Rk	5	2nd Down Rk	1
Q3 Rk	12	3rd Down Rk	43
Q4 Rk	37

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Baker Mayfield	6'1, 212	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8385	269	395	3700	36	7	68.1%	39	9.0%	8.1
Trevor Knight					22	40	305	2	2	55.0%	2	4.8%	7.0
Cody Thomas					1	3	1	0	0	33.3%	0	0.0%	0.3
Connor McGinnis	6'4, 194	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8111
Austin Kendall	6'1, 206	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9212

3. Wrap Baker in bubble wrap

Mayfield was everything OU fans could have possibly hoped for in 2015. He was far more consistent than Trevor Knight (2014's starter, who transferred to Texas A&M after the season), and his strengths were perfectly aligned with new offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley.

There were times when Riley's pass-first approach took too much focus from a running game that featured Samaje Perine and Mixon, plus the mobile Mayfield. But Mayfield still made it work. On first downs, he completed 77 percent of his passes (passer rating: 202.3) while Perine averaged 6.5 yards per carry and Mixon averaged 7.3. OU ranked fourth in the country on standard downs, and this mix was the primary reason why. Defenses had to mind the run, and Mayfield's quick decision-making and delivery meshed perfectly with a sideline-to-sideline passing attack.

Mayfield loses his go-to weapon, Sterling Shepard. But the run game should still be strong, and the receiving corps still has potential. I'm curious how much Shepard's absence will hurt on passing downs, but OU should still be adept at avoiding those because of the Perine-Mayfield mix.

And yes, this is all dependent on Mayfield staying healthy. Whereas Perine has Mixon backing him up, Mayfield has either true freshman Austin Kendall or redshirt freshman walk-on Connor McGinnis. Knight is gone, and third-stringer Cody Thomas quit football to focus on baseball.

Kendall held his own in spring ball and is well-regarded, but the potential dropoff from showman Mayfield to mistake-prone first-year guy is significant.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Samaje Perine	RB	5'10, 234	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9033	226	1349	16	6.0	6.3	40.3%	2	2
Joe Mixon	RB	6'1, 226	So.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9898	113	753	7	6.7	7.0	45.1%	1	1
Baker Mayfield	QB	6'1, 212	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8385	102	608	7	6.0	5.8	44.1%	4	0
Alex Ross	RB					32	172	1	5.4	5.8	37.5%	2	2
Daniel Brooks	RB	5'8, 184	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	NR	28	150	0	5.4	5.0	42.9%	0	0
Trevor Knight	QB					14	81	1	5.8	2.7	57.1%	1	0
Dede Westbrook	WR	6'0, 170	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9025	5	17	0	3.4	8.2	40.0%	2	1
Rodney Anderson	RB	6'0, 211	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9296
Abdul Adams	RB	6'0, 205	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8912

4. Whole vs. sum of parts

When Oklahoma's offense struggled, the run game was the likely culprit. Against Tennessee, Texas, and Clemson -- OU's two losses and the closest thing to a third -- Perine and Mixon carried a combined 67 times for 238 yards, just 3.6 per carry.

They averaged 6.9 yards per carry in the other 10 games, but while the full-season numbers were good, this does suggest a smidge of concern. OU ranked only 28th in Rushing S&P+ and 58th in Rushing Success Rate+, not nearly what you would expect to see from a backfield that features such ridiculous talent.

Without Shepard and his otherworldly 63 percent success rate (he was the country's best possession receiver, only he also averaged 15 yards per catch), OU might need the run game to click a little bit better to avoid passing downs. Perhaps in anticipation of this, Stoops made efforts to shore up potential weaknesses up front.

The OU line was solid last year but must replace four players who combined for 33 of the 65 starts up front. Three starters return, but Stoops signed two JUCO transfers (Ashton Julious and Ben Powers); Powers finished the spring as the first-string right guard, and redshirt freshman Cody Ford finished as the top left guard. So in a way, OU's line is young and experienced at the same time. Hard to know what to expect. But it only has to be good for Perine and Mixon to do serious damage.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Sterling Shepard	WR					117	86	1288	73.5%	28.1%	11.0	62.4%	63.2%	1.65
Dede Westbrook	WR	6'0, 170	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9025	71	46	743	64.8%	17.1%	10.5	53.5%	54.9%	1.79
Durron Neal	WR					64	44	559	68.8%	15.4%	8.7	76.6%	59.4%	1.41
Geno Lewis	WR	6'1, 201	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9341	37	17	196	45.9%	9.4%	5.3	43.2%	35.1%	1.41
Joe Mixon	RB	6'1, 226	So.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9898	33	28	356	84.8%	7.9%	10.8	69.7%	57.6%	1.72
Jarvis Baxter	WR	5'11, 165	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8274	31	20	218	64.5%	7.5%	7.0	71.0%	58.1%	1.00
Mark Andrews	TE	6'5, 244	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9387	28	19	318	67.9%	6.7%	11.4	46.4%	64.3%	1.89
Samaje Perine	RB	5'10, 234	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9033	18	15	107	83.3%	4.3%	5.9	55.6%	50.0%	0.97
Michiah Quick	WR	5'11, 183	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9703	12	9	103	75.0%	2.9%	8.6	91.7%	41.7%	1.91
Jeffery Mead	WR	6'5, 187	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8906	12	6	66	50.0%	2.9%	5.5	41.7%	41.7%	1.27
Dimitri Flowers	FB	6'2, 252	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8321	8	8	130	100.0%	1.9%	16.3	75.0%	87.5%	1.88
Daniel Brooks	RB	5'8, 184	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	NR	5	2	40	40.0%	1.2%	8.0	60.0%	40.0%	1.88
Grant Bothun	WR	5'11, 193	Sr.	NR	NR	4	3	34	75.0%	1.0%	8.5	50.0%	75.0%	0.99
A.D. Miller	WR	6'3, 189	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8525	3	2	16	66.7%	0.7%	5.3	33.3%	33.3%	1.40
Dahu Green	WR	6'4, 201	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8656	3	0	0	0.0%	0.7%	0.0	66.7%	0.0%	0.00
Connor Knight	TE	6'4, 248	Sr.	NR	NR	2	1	17	50.0%	0.5%	8.5	50.0%	50.0%	2.07
Dallis Todd	WR	6'3, 190	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9127	2	1	9	50.0%	0.5%	4.5	50.0%	50.0%	0.82
Carson Meier	FB	6'5, 245	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8517
Mykel Jones	WR	6'0, 180	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9091

5. Life without your security blanket

If I hadn't watched OU play a lot last year, I would point out that, while Shepard was fantastic, per-target averages for players like Dede Westbrook, Michiah Quick, tight end Mark Andrews, and Mixon suggest that they'll be fine in his absence. Mayfield is enough of a play-maker to make things happen with this group, even if the second- and third-leading wideouts (Geno Lewis and Jarvis Baxter) weren't that effective.

But since I did watch the Sooners a lot, I'm a little concerned. He was capable of carrying a heavy load (at least six catches in eight games) and of burning defenses deep (at least 15 yards per catch in eight games). He was the best of all worlds for this type of passing game, and defenses had to mind him at all times.

That said, Westbrook was particularly strong. If he gets at least a little help, and if nothing comes of a recent trespassing charge, he should be a fine No. 1. But players like Lewis, Baxter, Quick, and sophomore A.D. Miller will need to raise their games. There's enough youth to assume some year-to-year improvement, but let's just say that just because you have a wonderful, scrambler-gambler play-maker at quarterback, you don't want him to be scrambling and gambling on every play.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	111	3.32	2.96	42.7%	68.1%	18.8%	77.5	8.9%	10.5%
Rank	21	10	90	22	49	53	101	121	110

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Nila Kasitati	RG					13	25	2015 1st All-Big 12
Ty Darlington	C					12	26	Wuerffel Trophy winner, 2015 2nd All-Big 12
Orlando Brown	LT	6'8, 357	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8731	13	13
Jonathan Alvarez	C	6'3, 315	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7785	10	10
Dru Samia	RT	6'4, 274	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8986	9	9
Derek Farniok	LT					4	5
Josiah St. John	RT					4	4
Erick Wren	C	6'2, 317	Sr.	NR	NR	0	0
Jamal Danley	RG	6'3, 323	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8686	0	0
Christian Daimler	RT	6'7, 311	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8241	0	0
Alex Dalton	C	6'3, 290	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8775	0	0
Quinn Mittermeier	OL	6'5, 265	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8689	0	0
Bobby Evans	LT	6'4, 299	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9229
Cody Ford	LG	6'3, 317	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8674
Ashton Julious	LG	6'5, 354	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8706
Ben Powers	RG	6'4, 320	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8647
Erik Swenson	OL	6'7, 285	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8916
Johncarlo Valentin	OL	6'4, 330	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8811

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.19	31	IsoPPP+	128.0	5
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	37.5%	24	Succ. Rt. +	118.9	9
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	31.7	32	Off. FP+	32.8	15
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.2	51	Redzone S&P+	108.1	33
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	17.9		ACTUAL	27.0	+9.1

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	39	5	9	5
RUSHING	53	23	10	31
PASSING	34	4	13	2
Standard Downs		7	10	7
Passing Downs		12	27	10

Q1 Rk	4	1st Down Rk	5
Q2 Rk	18	2nd Down Rk	4
Q3 Rk	21	3rd Down Rk	15
Q4 Rk	24

6. Opponents knew to run (but most couldn't do it)

When Texas beat Oklahoma, in part by rushing 54 times for 332 yards (not including sacks and kneeldowns), everybody decided they had found the blueprint. And to be sure, in what is basically a 3-3-5 system, defensive coordinator Mike Stoops is willfully sacrificing size for speed. But that doesn't mean run defense was an actual weakness.

OU ranked 23rd in Rushing S&P+ -- a weakness compared to the pass defense, but still not something that drags you down too far. Tennessee's Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara rushed 28 times for just 113 yards (4.0); Baylor's Shock Linwood and Devin Chafin rushed 34 times for 152 yards (4.5). It wasn't until the Orange Bowl, when Clemson ran roughshod, that anyone else was really able to take advantage of this supposed weakness, and it took someone as awesome as Clemson's dual-threat Deshaun Watson.

OU was one of the nation's worst in short-yardage situations (which is where the size thing was particularly costly), but otherwise the speed to flow to the ball more than overcame a girth deficit.

This could be the case again, but OU will need some new linebackers. The line still appears stocked with talented guys like tackles Charles Walker and Matt Dimon (combined: 17 tackles for loss), but the Sooners have to replace five of their top six linebackers. Not only that, but those five combined for 37 tackles for loss, 12 sacks, and 11 passes defensed.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	111.4	2.72	3.54	37.9%	78.3%	20.0%	111.9	6.4%	7.8%
Rank	28	39	97	64	117	64	43	23	57

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Charles Tapper	DE					13	40.5	5.4%	10.0	7.0	0	3	4	1
Charles Walker	DT	6'2, 299	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8656	12	30.5	4.0%	10.0	6.0	0	1	1	0
Matt Dimon	DT	6'2, 265	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8984	13	25.0	3.3%	7.0	2.5	0	0	1	0
Jordan Wade	DT	6'3, 311	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9382	13	18.5	2.5%	2.0	1.0	0	1	0	0
Matthew Romar	DT	6'0, 298	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8585	12	18.5	2.5%	1.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
D.J. Ward	DE	6'2, 250	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9415	13	12.0	1.6%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	1
Marquise Overton	DT	6'1, 292	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9170	8	5.5	0.7%	2.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Austin Roberts	DE	6'6, 279	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8681
Neville Gallimore	DT	6'3, 320	RSFr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9615
Gabriel Campbell	DE	6'6, 257	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8700
Amani Bledsoe	DE	6'5, 265	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9288

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Dominique Alexander	ILB					13	78.5	10.4%	7.0	0.5	1	2	0	0
Jordan Evans	ILB	6'2, 233	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8286	11	66.0	8.7%	5.0	1.0	0	4	1	1
Eric Striker	OLB					13	54.0	7.2%	19.0	7.5	1	3	1	0
Frank Shannon	ILB					12	38.5	5.1%	1.0	1.0	1	0	0	0
Devante Bond	OLB					9	35.5	4.7%	7.0	3.0	0	2	1	0
P.L. Lindley	LB					13	11.0	1.5%	3.0	0.5	0	1	0	0
Tay Evans	ILB	6'2, 239	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8504	10	6.5	0.9%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Ruben Hunter	LB	6'2, 222	Jr.	NR	NR	12	6.5	0.9%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Ogbonnia Okoronkwo	OLB	6'2, 238	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8659	9	6.0	0.8%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Curtis Bolton	ILB	6'0, 232	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8650
Ricky Deberry	OLB	6'2, 250	RSFr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9575
Arthur McGinnis	ILB	6'1, 248	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8686
Kapri Doucet	OLB	6'2, 225	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8474
Emmanuel Beal	OLB	6'2, 215	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8083
Caleb Kelly	OLB	6'3, 225	Fr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9836
Mark Jackson Jr.	OLB	6'3, 235	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9191

7. How much does the pass rush suffer?

In linebacker Eric Striker and end Charles Tapper, the Sooners must replace their two most dangerous pass rushers. Young ends D.J. Ward and Marquise Overton did some damage in limited opportunities; they could be ready to shine. But at linebacker, there are far more questions than answers. Junior Ogbonnia Okoronkwo and Tay Evans finished the spring on the first string; the two combined for 12.5 tackles and a single sack last year.

I'm more concerned about the pass rush than the run defense here. The line should hold up to run blocking about as well as it did lat year, and goodness knows there are plenty of blitz candidates -- Okoronkwo, blue-chip redshirt freshman Ricky DeBerry, JUCO transfers Kapri Doucet and Emmanuel Beal, etc. And if a blue-chipper like Caleb Kelly is ready to roll from Day 1, there will be a role. But if this defense regresses, it will be because a pass defense that was elite at all levels (pass rush, safety play, corner coverage) regressed a bit too much.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Ahmad Thomas	FS	6'0, 199	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8668	13	62.0	8.2%	1.5	1.5	3	3	0	0
Steven Parker	SS	6'1, 208	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9466	13	50.5	6.7%	4	1.5	0	4	0	0
Zack Sanchez	CB					11	40.5	5.4%	3.5	0.5	7	7	0	0
Jordan Thomas	CB	6'0, 187	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8706	12	40.0	5.3%	0	0	5	4	0	0
Dakota Austin	CB	5'10, 159	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8322	11	24.0	3.2%	1	0	2	3	0	0
Hatari Byrd	FS					12	21.5	2.8%	0	0	0	0	0	0
William Johnson	NB	6'0, 185	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8687	11	12.5	1.7%	3	0	0	1	0	0
Marcus Green	CB					8	8.0	1.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
P.J. Mbanasor	CB	6'1, 189	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9390	10	6.0	0.8%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Kahlil Haughton	FS	6'1, 195	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8970	12	6.0	0.8%	0.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Will Sunderland	SS	6'2, 197	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9290	8	2.5	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Stanvon Taylor	CB	5'11, 67	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9366	5	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Prentice McKinney	S	6'1, 181	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8752
Jordan Parker	CB	6'1, 170	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9283
Chanse Sylvie	NB	5'11, 179	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8813

8. If the front holds, the back will too

It's strange not feeling too concerned about the pass defense when OU must replace an awesome, longtime play-maker in Zack Sanchez. But both junior Jordan Thomas and senior Dakota Austin both proved themselves to some degree, and at the least, players like sophomore P.J. Mbanasor and Stanvon Taylor have gotten their feet wet.

Plus, safety is loaded. That always helps. Ahmad Thomas and Steven Parker as proven as you need your safeties to be, William Johnson seems well-suited for nickel back (he had three TFLs in limited action), and sophomores like Kahlil Haughton, Will Sunderland, and Prentice McKinney come with quite a pedigree. OU might be even safer at safety than TCU is, and that's saying something.

There are questions to answer on this defense, but if Stoops can dial up a pass rush, it appears everything should operate similar to last year.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Austin Seibert	5'10, 214	So.	57	42.0	2	30	20	87.7%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Nick Hodgson			102	63.5	52	0	51.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Austin Seibert	5'10, 214	So.	70-72	13-17	76.5%	5-6	83.3%
Nick Hodgson			1-1	1-1	100.0%	0-0	N/A

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Alex Ross	KR			30	21.5	0
Durron Neal	KR			2	26.5	0
Sterling Shepard	PR			19	7.8	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	20
Field Goal Efficiency	50
Punt Return Success Rate	95
Kick Return Success Rate	75
Punt Success Rate	1
Kickoff Success Rate	32

9. Seibert will be a huge weapon for years

Austin Seibert was about as well-touted as a kicker/punter can be in high school, and he lived up to as much hype as you can as a freshman. His place-kicking was a little bit scattershot (he missed four field goals under 40 yards), but he bombed in five longer field goals, and his punts were unreturnable. OU had the most efficient punting game in the country, and when you're winning both the efficiency battles and the special teams battle, you're tilting the field drastically in your favor. And the Sooners have three more years of Seibert.

Because of Seibert alone, OU's special teams unit should be a net positive. But losing Alex Ross and Shepard in the return game hurts. New return options are wanted.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
3-Sep	at Houston	53	14.1	79%
10-Sep	UL-Monroe	125	41.9	99%
17-Sep	Ohio State	14	9.1	70%
1-Oct	at TCU	31	8.8	69%
8-Oct	vs. Texas	34	12.8	77%
15-Oct	Kansas State	67	23.4	91%
22-Oct	at Texas Tech	43	11.9	75%
29-Oct	Kansas	112	37.9	99%
3-Nov	at Iowa State	71	17.2	84%
12-Nov	Baylor	13	9.1	70%
19-Nov	at West Virginia	33	9.3	70%
3-Dec	Oklahoma State	23	12.9	77%
Projected wins: 9.6

Five-Year F/+ Rk	41.1% (6)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	16 / 16
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	9 / 1.6
2015 TO Luck/Game	+2.8
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	69% (72%, 66%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	10.4 (0.6)

10. No seriously, keep Baker healthy

It feels dicey previewing a team that has depth issues at the most important position.

If Mayfield is healthy, OU is going to be awesome. The Sooners have maybe the best quarterback and two of the best running backs in the conference, and in the areas where new play-makers are needed -- pass rushing, pass catching -- there are quite a few options.

With Mayfield, OU is the safest bet to win the Big 12, even with a trip to Fort Worth on the docket (and sandwiched between Ohio State and Texas, no less).

Without Mayfield, though? With an only solid receiving corps and a freshman quarterback, plus a line that might only be decent? A team without Mayfield cedes control of the Big 12 to TCU, I think.

We'll see, huh? OU could be positioned to make another nice run to the postseason. And since we preview teams based on what they have (and not what they might not have), that makes OU a really damn good, top-10-caliber team and potential title contender.

As you see above, the Sooners are given at least a 69 percent chance of winning in each game they play (here's your reminder that S&P+ is not a fan of either TCU or Houston -- I'm personally viewing TCU as a tossup), and very few teams will have odds that consistently good.