The Houston Cougars were good (and lucky) in 2015. Expectations are now sky-high

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year's team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year's roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

1. Houston was good

Houston head coach Tom Herman lived up to the hype in his first year back in Texas. The first-time head coach engineered 13 wins, an AAC title, a 3-0 record vs. power conference teams, a Peach Bowl title, and the school's first AP top-10 finish in 25 years.

It didn't take long to see how well-managed the Cougars were. They controlled field position (17th in field position margin). They figured out how to keep the chains moving when they fell behind schedule. They closed drives better than their opponent. They seemed to score on the play after every turnover their opponents gave them.

This was a smart, athletic team, and when you consider the coach, that makes sense. Herman was Urban Meyer's right-hand man as the Buckeyes went 38-3 and won the 2014 national title.

For Herman, time under Meyer was like the finishing polish. Herman had already cut his teeth in the coaching ranks under Mack Brown (Texas graduate assistant), Ron Randleman (SHSU receivers/special teams coach), David Bailiff (Rice offensive coordinator), and Paul Rhoads (Iowa State offensive coordinator), putting together his vision of a spread offense with power principles. Under Meyer, not only did he perfect that vision with one of the game's great offensive innovators, he also learned how to be a great head coach.

Houston looked like a Meyer team last year. Meyer teams dominate field position (Ohio State was first in the country in field position margin last year, fourth in 2014), they pounce on mistakes, and they know how to maneuver in close games. In Meyer's four years in Columbus, Ohio State is 13-2 in games decided by one possession. He's 33-13 overall in such games.

Close games are partially decided by randomness, but there's no question that some coaches manage play-calling and the clock better. So it's not pure luck that Houston went 3-1 in one-possession games on the way to a spectacular 13-1 season.

And when you combine superb coaching with incredible recruiting -- per the 247Sports Composite, Houston's 2016 recruiting class ranked 40th overall; no other team from a Group of Five conference ranked higher than 57th -- it's not hard to see why the #HTownTakeover hype train is charging. And oh, is it charging.

2. Houston was lucky

It's also not hard to see how things could have taken a hard turn for the worse.

• Houston recovered two of three fumbles and needed a plus-3 turnover margin and a kick return score to beat Louisville by three.
• The Cougars recovered two of three fumbles and needed a drastic field position advantage (+13 yards per possession) and a pick six to beat Cincinnati by three despite a massive yards-per-play deficit (UC 8.5, UH 4.9).
• They trailed Memphis by 20 points with 13 minutes left and were outgained by 98 yards, but won when Memphis missed a field goal at the buzzer.

Houston's win expectancy in these games (the likelihood of a win based on factors like efficiency, field position, etc.) was 24 percent, 15 percent, and 48 percent, respectively.

Last year, teams facing 15 percent expectancy went 1-10. Teams facing 24 percent ended up 1-11. UH was the only winner of each. The odds of winning all three of these games: around 1.7 percent.

Leaning on field position ... executing well when the score is tight ... these things aren't luck. But Houston was incredibly lucky to finish 13-1 instead of 10-4 or 11-3.

The Cougars recovered 65 percent of all fumbles (only Arkansas' 65.5 percent was luckier). Opponents picked off only 15 percent of Houston's defensed passes (the national average is usually around 22 percent), which was a little lucky. Add that up, and the Cougars benefited from the third-most turnovers luck in the country, about 5 points per game.

When you aren't necessarily better than your opponents on down-for-down efficiency -- Houston was 59th in offensive Success Rate+, 67th on defense -- and you have to rely on coaching and timing and the Little Things™ to bail yourself out, you're giving yourself no margin for error. Even neutral turnovers luck could have made a huge difference in Houston's record.

Consequently, S&P+ wasn't a Cougar believer. Houston ranked 44th in S&P+ last season, lower than most computer ratings, but other measures derived from play-by-play were similarly skeptical. ESPN's FPI ranked the Cougars 34th, Ed Feng's The Power Rank 33rd.

This was a flawed team experiencing a wonderful season, and while they were incredibly fun to watch, they may not have been using a replicable formula for victory.

Even without luck, Houston's turnaround was outstanding. The Cougars improved from 90th in S&P+ to 44th, and even if they had just risen to 10 or 11 wins, that still beats 2014's 8-5.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 13-1 | Adj. Record: 10-4 | Final F/+ Rk: 26 | Final S&P+ Rk: 44
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
5-Sep	Tennessee Tech	N/A	52-24	W	59%	99%	+14.4
12-Sep	at Louisville	39	34-31	W	34%	24%	+20.3	+16.0
26-Sep	Texas State	116	59-14	W	93%	100%	+40.3	+28.5
3-Oct	at Tulsa	95	38-24	W	71%	96%	+22.5	+7.0
8-Oct	SMU	106	49-28	W	70%	99%	+4.8	-4.5
16-Oct	at Tulane	119	42-7	W	85%	100%	+22.0	+16.0
24-Oct	at Central Florida	128	59-10	W	82%	100%	+24.5	+27.5
31-Oct	Vanderbilt	83	34-0	W	90%	100%	+20.8	+22.5
7-Nov	Cincinnati	72	33-30	W	25%	15%	-8.7	-5.0
14-Nov	Memphis	41	35-34	W	48%	48%	-3.5	-6.0
21-Nov	at Connecticut	80	17-20	L	18%	13%	-13.4	-3.0
27-Nov	Navy	21	52-31	W	65%	63%	+27.6	+20.0
5-Dec	Temple	45	24-13	W	81%	95%	+12.1	+4.0
31-Dec	vs. Florida State	12	38-24	W	69%	69%	+28.7	+21.5

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	34.8	29	27.2	59
Points Per Game	40.4	10	20.7	20

3. Zero margin for error

One last thing about last year. If you're looking for how Houston could grade out so low within the S&P+ top 50, look at how the Cougars fared against top-50 teams.

Odds favored about a 10-4 season, and the fact that the Cougars exceeded that was thrilling. But thrilling doesn't equal sustainable.

• UH vs. S&P+ top 50:
  Yards per play: Opp 6.0, UH 5.4 | Average win expectancy: 60% | Likely record: 3-2 | Actual record: 5-0
• UH vs. everybody else:
  Yards per play: UH 6.6, Opp 5.2 | Average win expectancy: 80% | Likely record: 7-2 | Actual record: 8-0

Of course, there are different kinds of luck. Houston couldn't keep a running back healthy; Kenneth Farrow, Ryan Jackson, and Javin Webb all missed time, which led to starting cornerback Brandon Wilson briefly changing to offense. (He thrived, rushing 33 times for 181 yards against strong Navy and Temple defenses.)

The offensive line was shuffled almost weekly, with 11 different players starting at least one game. That almost always spells disaster but didn't.

The defense was mostly stable but did lose cornerback Howard Wilson three games into the season.

And of course, quarterback Greg Ward Jr. injured his ankle against Memphis, missing a large portion of both that game and the UConn loss the next week. With a healthy Ward and these other results, Houston probably goes 14-0.

In this way, better injuries luck could offset regression in the other luck department. And an outstanding 2016 recruiting class could create impressive depth.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.31	42	IsoPPP+	108.1	43
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	43.7%	43	Succ. Rt. +	103.2	59
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	26.2	5	Def. FP+	27.3	22
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	5.2	10	Redzone S&P+	106.4	50
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	19.9		ACTUAL	14	-5.9

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	20	42	59	43
RUSHING	13	44	72	33
PASSING	44	45	43	54
Standard Downs		58	70	60
Passing Downs		27	43	26

Q1 Rk	55	1st Down Rk	57
Q2 Rk	62	2nd Down Rk	101
Q3 Rk	33	3rd Down Rk	30
Q4 Rk	73

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Greg Ward Jr.	5'11, 185	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8423	232	345	2828	17	6	67.2%	25	6.8%	7.3
Kyle Postma	6'3, 205	Jr.	NR	NR	43	68	453	3	1	63.2%	3	4.2%	6.3
Adam Schulz					7	13	129	0	0	53.8%	0	0.0%	9.9
Bear Fenimore	6'1, 215	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8038
D'Eriq King	5'10, 170	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8776
Bowman Sells	6'2, 182	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8574

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Kenneth Farrow	RB					186	958	12	5.2	5.6	33.9%	1	0
Greg Ward Jr.	QB	5'11, 185	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8423	173	1253	21	7.2	6.9	51.4%	9	3
Ryan Jackson	RB					84	407	4	4.8	4.5	36.9%	1	0
Javin Webb	RB					70	277	4	4.0	3.4	30.0%	0	0
Brandon Wilson	RB/CB					37	188	2	5.1	3.6	43.2%	0	0
Demarcus Ayers	WR					25	147	1	5.9	9.4	36.0%	3	2
Kyle Postma	QB	6'3, 205	Jr.	NR	NR	24	202	1	8.4	8.1	54.2%	2	1
Kaliq Kokuma	RB	5'11, 210	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8238	18	92	0	5.1	5.9	27.8%	0	0
Duke Catalon (Texas)	RB	6'0, 210	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9155
Blake Hirsch	RB	6'0, 220	So.	NR	NR
Josh Burrell	RB	5'10, 247	RSFr.	NR	NR
Kevrin Justice	RB	5'11, 190	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8159
Mulbah Car	RB	5'11, 194	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8544

4. Got a running game?

Big plays bailed Houston out of some jams. The Cougars were just 72nd in Rushing Success Rate+ but ripped off 39 rushes of at least 20 yards, second in FBS.

Ward was responsible for 16 of these rushes, including one on first down. He also had nine carries of 10-plus yards on third-and-long. He was the reason Houston ran 39 percent of the time on passing downs (often a sign of conservatism) but ranked 27th in Passing Downs S&P+. He was a major threat on scrambles and draws, and he distracted defenses enough on such downs to complete big passes, too: On third-and-7 or more, he was 33-for-52 (63 percent) for 558 yards, four touchdowns, and only one interception.

Of course, he wouldn't have had to prove himself on passing downs so much had Houston been able to run more efficiently on first down. The three primary running backs -- Farrow, Jackson, Webb -- gained at least five yards on a putrid 34 percent of their carries. They weren't typically getting stopped in the backfield, but they were frequently getting stopped for a gain of only one or two.

Now Farrow, Jackson, and Webb are all gone, as are each of the four linemen who finished 2015 with at least 12 career starts. Granted, six guys with starting experience return, and simple stability could mean more than returnees -- whoever your starting five is at the beginning of the year, keep those five guys intact.

The corps of running backs will be brand new, but there's upside. Texas transfer Duke Catalon was a four-star recruit out of high school, and sophomore Kaliq Kokuma showed the same low-efficiency, high-explosiveness tendencies as everybody else in a handful of carries. In sophomores Blake Hirsch and Josh Burrell, there are a couple of burly options, and in Kevrin Justice and Mulbah Car, there are a couple of high-upside freshmen.

Still, there are plenty of questions about the running game, and the answer can't always be "Have Ward bail you out."

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Demarcus Ayers	WR-H					129	98	1222	76.0%	31.0%	9.5	63.6%	56.6%	1.51
Chance Allen	WR-Z	6'3, 215	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8463	88	56	752	63.6%	21.2%	8.5	55.7%	51.1%	1.56
Steven Dunbar	WR-X	6'3, 210	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7893	54	31	382	57.4%	13.0%	7.1	51.9%	37.0%	1.74
Linell Bonner	WR-X	6'0, 200	Jr.	NR	NR	39	25	317	64.1%	9.4%	8.1	51.3%	48.7%	1.67
Tyler McCloskey	TE	6'2, 245	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7859	23	14	157	60.9%	5.5%	6.8	65.2%	52.2%	1.41
Ryan Jackson	RB					18	12	111	66.7%	4.3%	6.2	61.1%	33.3%	1.54
Kenneth Farrow	RB					10	10	119	100.0%	2.4%	11.9	50.0%	60.0%	1.67
Kyle Postma	QB	6'3, 205	Jr.	NR	NR	9	6	145	66.7%	2.2%	16.1	44.4%	66.7%	2.49
Donald Gage	WR-H					9	6	19	66.7%	2.2%	2.1	66.7%	22.2%	0.86
Isaiah Johnson	WR-Z	6'4, 205	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8176	7	6	43	85.7%	1.7%	6.1	71.4%	57.1%	0.98
John Leday	WR	6'0, 200	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7819	7	4	41	57.1%	1.7%	5.9	57.1%	42.9%	1.16
Ra'Shaad Samples (Oklahoma State)	WR	5'11, 190	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9096	5	3	11	60.0%	1.3%	2.2	60.0%	N/A	N/A
Romello Brooker	TE	6'4, 240	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8038
Chris Johnson (Baylor)	TE					3	3	37	100.0%	0.8%	12.3	66.7%	66.7%	1.74
Alex Leslie (Iowa State)	TE	6'5, 240	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8195
Courtney Lark	WR	6'1, 163	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9016
Marquez Stevenson	WR	6'0, 175	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8559
Keith Corbin	WR	6'2, 175	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8492
Terry Mark	WR	6'1, 190	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8497

5. A ton of athletes

Chance Allen was the epitome of consistency in 2015, catching at least three passes (and never more than six) in every game and averaging a solid 8.5 yards per target. Linell Bonner had seven catches for 92 yards in the division clincher against Navy.

Steven Dunbar caught seven passes for 150 yards against Tulsa in 2014.

Isaiah Johnson had maybe the best spring game of any player in the country this April: 15 catches, 292 yards, and touchdowns spanning 48, 51, and 90 yards.

Ra'Shaad Samples was originally a four-star Oklahoma State signee.

Courtney Lark is an incoming four-star, and the recruiting ratings for fellow freshmen Marquez Stevenson, Keith Corbin, and Terry Mark weren't far behind. [Update: Tight end Chris Johnson transferred to the Cougars from Baylor.]

However the hierarchy shakes down, there will be athletes all over the field, some of whom have already proven a little bit. Losing leader Demarcus Ayers hurts, but I'm far less worried about Houston's passing game than the running game.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	101.7	2.87	3.74	39.8%	66.1%	17.1%	87.8	5.8%	7.4%
Rank	65	69	21	54	63	27	80	83	64

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Alex Cooper	LT					14	28	2015 2nd All-AAC
Ben Dew	LG					3	16
Zach Johnson	RT					3	14
Carter Wall	RT					12	12
Colton Freeman	RG	6'4, 300	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7633	11	11
Will Noble	C	6'4, 290	So.	NR	0.7685	8	8
Mason Denley	LG	6'4, 305	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8260	7	7
Marcus Oliver	LT	6'3, 295	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8042	7	7
Kameron Eloph	LG	6'3, 294	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8503	3	3
Damien Parris	RT					1	2
Josh Thomas	OL	6'6, 332	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8462	1	1
Mac Long	C	6'4, 300	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8463	0	0
Josh Jones	OL	6'5, 280	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8472
Na'Ty Rodgers	OL	6'5, 292	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8950
Keenan Murphy	OL	6'2, 295	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8434
Braylon Jones	OL	6'3, 278	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8378
Dixie Wooten	OL	6'5, 322	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8326

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.26	71	IsoPPP+	102.2	58
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	38.8%	41	Succ. Rt. +	100.0	67
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	31.2	39	Off. FP+	30.0	62
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.0	30	Redzone S&P+	107.1	40
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	28.1		ACTUAL	35.0	+6.9

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	53	59	67	58
RUSHING	8	29	50	21
PASSING	116	80	87	73
Standard Downs		67	74	71
Passing Downs		54	62	53

Q1 Rk	51	1st Down Rk	61
Q2 Rk	39	2nd Down Rk	52
Q3 Rk	38	3rd Down Rk	49
Q4 Rk	108

6. Good luck running

Opponents didn't even try to run. Despite playing quite a few either run-heavy or balanced opponents, Houston still faced run-pass ratios skewed toward the pass. Considering the alternative, that made sense.

The Cougars allowed only 10 rushes of 20-plus yards all season, 10th-fewest in FBS. Opponents averaged just 3.4 yards per carry on first down. Just as Houston's own run game tended to produce a lot of second-and-longs, so did opponents'. So they took to the air.

Houston allowed a 61 percent completion rate and a 141.8 passer rating on first downs, and if you could work your way into Houston territory, you could find your spots. Inside the UH 40, opponents completed 55 percent of their passes with 14 touchdowns to one interception.

Houston went for the jugular, though, and it was fun as hell to watch. Not only did they create consistently unfavorable field position, they attacked the pass when an opponent's goal line was nearby. Inside their own 40, opponents threw 12 interceptions. That's a recipe for quick Houston scores, even if it occasionally resulted in big completions, too.

The phenomenon should be about the same. The front seven might be even better than it was last year, but the secondary could be worse, resulting in either conservatism or more failed gambles.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	100.6	2.63	2.68	34.3%	73.7%	23.0%	89.2	5.8%	5.8%
Rank	58	29	18	27	105	26	83	39	92

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Cameron Malveaux	DE	6'6, 270	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7819	14	28.0	3.7%	8.5	2.5	0	3	0	0
Tomme Mark	DE					14	27.5	3.6%	3.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Nick Thurman	DE	6'4, 290	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8159	14	21.5	2.8%	5.0	0.5	0	1	0	0
B.J. Singleton	DT	6'4, 314	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8592	14	15.5	2.1%	2.0	1.0	0	3	0	0
Jerard Carter	DT	6'3, 297	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7926	13	10.0	1.3%	0.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Chauntez Jackson	DE	6'5, 280	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8463	4	3.5	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kameron Eloph	DT					10	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Zorrell Ezell	DT	6'1, 285	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8669
Zack Vaughan	DE	6'4, 270	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8429
D.J. Jenkins	DE	6'2, 260	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8114
Ed Oliver	DT	6'2, 290	Fr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9968
Aymiel Fleming	DT	6'2, 284	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8077
Hasaun Glasgow	DE	6'3, 243	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8072

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Elandon Roberts	ILB					14	115.0	15.2%	19.0	6.0	1	5	2	0
Steven Taylor	OLB	6'1, 225	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7200	14	76.5	10.1%	18.5	10.0	2	3	2	0
Matthew Adams	ILB	6'1, 230	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8308	13	38.5	5.1%	2.5	2.0	0	0	0	0
Tyus Bowser	OLB	6'3, 240	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8311	14	38.5	5.1%	6.5	5.5	1	3	1	0
Emeke Egbule	ILB	6'3, 230	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7826	14	10.0	1.3%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
D'Juan Hines	ILB	6'1, 225	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8287	13	9.5	1.3%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Cameron Doubenmier	ILB	5'11, 220	Jr.	NR	NR	12	5.0	0.7%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Rasheed Tynes	LB	5'11, 220	Sr.	NR	NR	8	5.0	0.7%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Davonte Thomas	OLB	6'1, 220	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8174
Ralph Harvey Jr.	OLB	6'2, 245	Sr.	NR	NR
Ja'Von Shelley	OLB	6'1, 230	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8023
Jordan Milburn	LB	6'1, 225	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7956
Camden Ross	LB	6'2, 245	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7926

7. Even better and deeper

Losing linebacker Elandon Roberts (drafted in the sixth round by the Patriots) tackle Tomme Mark hurts. Roberts was one of the most active defenders in the AAC, with 19 TFLs and six passes defensed, and replacing that production isn't guaranteed.

That said, when that's ALL you lose, outstanding depth can overpower a lost play-maker or two. Four of last year's five linemen are back (including run-stuffing ends Cameron Malveaux and Nick Thurman), as are five of the top six linebackers. There is still an attacking presence on the edge with Malveaux, Thurman, and OLBs Steven Taylor and Tyus Bowser, and while Roberts was a unique play-maker on the interior, juniors Matthew Adams and D'Juan Hines and sophomore Emeke Egbule were still in on quite a few plays.

And then there are the newcomers. According to 247, freshman tackle Ed Oliver was the sixth-best player in the class of 2016, regardless of position. He could become an immediate presence up front, and there are five other three-star freshmen and sophomores waiting for their turn. Despite losing Roberts, it is conceivable that Houston's run defense actually improves, and perhaps by quite a bit.

Opponents will be passing again, in other words.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Adrian McDonald	SS					14	75.5	10.0%	3.5	1	4	2	2	1
Trevon Stewart	FS					14	64.0	8.5%	10.5	6	4	2	1	0
Brandon Wilson	CB	5'11, 200	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8163	14	54.5	7.2%	2	0	1	8	2	1
Lee Hightower	NB					14	43.5	5.8%	0	0	1	2	1	0
William Jackson III	CB					13	38.5	5.1%	1.5	0	5	23	0	1
Jeremy Winchester	CB	6'0, 190	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8391	13	15.0	2.0%	0	0	0	3	0	0
Khalil Williams	NB	6'0, 200	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8119	14	14.5	1.9%	1	0	1	4	0	0
Earl Foster	S					14	6.0	0.8%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Garrett Davis	S	6'1, 200	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7985	13	5.5	0.7%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Tyler White	CB					10	5.0	0.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Howard Wilson	CB	6'1, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7906	3	5.0	0.7%	0	0	1	2	0	0
Joeal Williams	CB	5'10, 185	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8030	7	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Austin Robinson (UTSA)	S	6'3, 220	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7926
Michael Eke	S	6'2, 205	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7200
Terrell Williams	S	6'3, 210	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8257
J.J. Dallas	S	6'0, 200	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8313
Collin Wilder	DB	5'11, 175	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8599
Patrick Rosette	DB	6'1, 195	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8197
Ka'Darian Smith	DB	6'0, 172	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8024
Javian Smith	DB	6'1, 165	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7944

8. A new(ish) pass defense

The secondary got burned quite a bit, but for defensive coordinator Todd Orlando, who could be taking a head coaching job of his own soon, the risk-reward ratio was still positive. But that was with first-round pick William Jackson III, Adrian McDonald, Trevon Stewart, and Lee Hightower.

This foursome combined for an incredible 16.5 tackles for loss, seven sacks, 14 interceptions, 29 break-ups, and four forced fumbles. That sets the bar awfully high for a young secondary.

There are still exciting pieces, of course. Wilson added two TFLs and nine passes defensed; he could end up at Hightower's nickel position. Likely starting safeties Khalil Williams and Garrett davis got reps last year, and Williams defensed five passes from the nickel. Meanwhile, Howard Wilson returns from injury (he had three passes defensed in just three games), and sophomore Jeremy Winchester also saw time last year. And to assure some level of upperclassman presence, Herman brought in a pair of JUCO defensive backs: Terrell Williams and JJ Dallas.

So the secondary is inexperienced ... but not really. But there's still a difference between solid play-making and the level we saw last year. If a few more big-play attempts go awry and result in big completions, that skews the risk-reward balance quite a bit.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Logan Piper			64	40.4	3	23	20	67.2%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Ty Cummings	6'0, 185	Sr.	100	62.7	30	2	30.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Ty Cummings	6'0, 185	Sr.	51-51	7-7	100.0%	1-1	100.0%
Kyle Bullard			23-23	4-5	80.0%	1-4	25.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Brandon Wilson	KR	5'11, 200	Sr.	23	26.6	2
Javin Webb	KR			7	15.0	0
Demarcus Ayers	PR			28	10.4	1

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	62
Field Goal Efficiency	74
Punt Return Success Rate	81
Kick Return Success Rate	86
Punt Success Rate	33
Kickoff Success Rate	49

9. The right pieces return

Turnovers played a large role in Houston's massive field position advantages in 2015, but at the least, special teams didn't hurt in that regard. But the strength of the unit was probably Logan Piper's high, unreturnable punts, and he's gone. That leaves kicker Ty Cummings (who was automatic inside of 40 yards but wasn't much for touchbacks on kickoffs) and all-or-nothing return man Brandon Wilson.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
3-Sep	Oklahoma	4	-14.1	21%
10-Sep	Lamar	NR	29.5	96%
15-Sep	at Cincinnati	70	-0.5	49%
24-Sep	at Texas State	120	14.9	81%
29-Sep	Connecticut	81	10.0	72%
8-Oct	at Navy	66	-1.5	46%
15-Oct	Tulsa	93	12.9	77%
22-Oct	at SMU	98	7.6	67%
29-Oct	Central Florida	99	14.9	80%
12-Nov	Tulane	122	22.5	90%
17-Nov	Louisville	20	-6.5	35%
25-Nov	at Memphis	77	0.8	52%
Projected wins: 7.7

Five-Year F/+ Rk	9.4% (47)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	61 / 68
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	21 / 8.1
2015 TO Luck/Game	+4.9
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	58% (72%, 44%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	10.2 (2.8)

10. Two realistic paths

Despite what are sure to be lofty preseason rankings, it's not hard to see how this all goes wrong.

Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield takes advantage of a not-quite-ready secondary in the opener at NRG Stadium, Ward misses some drives in a key game (and this time, backup Kyle Postma isn't able to work a miracle comeback), and a few turnovers bounce the other way in a tricky set of AAC road games: Cincinnati, Navy, SMU, and Memphis.

Houston is going to be good. In 2016, something like a 9-3 record would be considered disappointing. This scenario plays out a lot in this sport, and it shouldn't a surprise that it's what the skeptical S&P+ ratings are projecting.

Still, it's also not hard to see this ending up like a Kansas State situation. Bill Snyder's Wildcats were lucky as hell and had no business going 10-3 in 2011; they finished 37th in S&P+ (and yes, I got yelled at a lot for that). But they stayed healthy in 2012, their senior quarterback took another step forward, and depth, experience, and confidence in tight situations moved the Wildcats forward. In 2013, KSU improved to 11-2 and sixth in S&P+.

Both options are on the table for Houston this year, and Herman's recruiting is certainly laying the groundwork for an extended run of quality.