Navy football is killing the 2 dumb narratives about finally joining a conference

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year's team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year's roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

1. Taking on narratives, one at a time

People talk about us coming into the conference, and we have great respect for the programs and the head coaches, but we didn't come from NAIA football.

-- Navy head coach Ken Niumatalolo, 2015

In some of my dealings with the media I kept being asked what it’s like to come into a conference. I felt like saying, ‘Have you not been watching who we’ve been playing.’ I just wanted people to know that we’ve been in Division I. It was just something brewing inside me and just spilled out.

-- Niumatalolo, 2015

"You might get some ideas on us, but we're always going to get ideas for how to attack you."

The common idea on Navy is that, once you face that offense once or twice, you figure out what to do. You can find analysts saying Navy joining a conference (the AAC) for the first time is bad for this reason.

While exposure can make you more familiar, it makes Niumatalolo and OC Ivin Jasper more familiar with you.

"Ivin and I have learned from the best, and we've seen everything. There's nothing you can throw at us that we haven't seen."

-- 7 coaches explain what goes into game week

There were two main narratives regarding Navy's move to the AAC, and both were pretty patronizing. The first was that it meant a scheduling upgrade that the Midshipmen might not be able to handle. The second was that Navy would struggle once opponents adapted to the offense.

Both were transparent nonsense.

The former ignored Navy's scheduling as an independent -- in 2014, for instance, the Midshipmen played national champion Ohio State, Notre Dame, and a total of eight teams that went bowling (plus 6-6 Temple, which had an outstanding defense). In 2012, they opened with Notre Dame, Penn State, and an 11-win San Jose State.

And you get exposed to them, but they also get exposed to you. Georgia Tech's success (2015 aside) under Paul Johnson would seem to negate the argument. Tech had two top-40 offenses (per Off. S&P+) in his first two seasons, then four more in years 4-7. In 2014, his seventh in the ACC, Tech's offense ranked third in the country.

Navy's 11-2 season and top-20 S&P+ rating did its part in killing the first of the two. Against a schedule that was, if anything, a downgrade (two top-40 opponents, four opponents ranked 106th or worse), the Midshipmen rolled. They wrapped up quarterback Keenan Reynolds' wonderful career by scoring at least 44 points six times; they held opponents to 21 or fewer 10 times as well. They won only one game by single digits.

The latter narrative, however, takes a few years to officially destroy. And doing so in 2016 could be difficult. This will be a reset year.

As in 2012, when Navy had to replace a strong quarterback (the underrated Kriss Proctor, who succeeded Ricky Dobbs for one year) and Reynolds was just a freshman, there will be a drop-off in quality. Gone are Reynolds, the top two fullbacks, two of the top three slotbacks, all five starting offensive linemen, three of four defensive linemen, and three of five defensive backs.

At a service academy, where redshirts aren't a thing, you're always reliant on upperclassmen. That means you get used to replacing a lot of starters. But Navy's facing more retooling than normal, and Reynolds was special. You don't simply replace him.

Long-term, Navy will be fine. The program kept Niumatalolo despite interest from BYU, and recruiting and depth of talent probably haven't been this strong in a long while. If there is a step backward, it won't be permanent. But it might take a while before he can squash the final narrative.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 11-2 | Adj. Record: 11-2 | Final F/+ Rk: 21 | Final S&P+ Rk: 20
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
5-Sep	Colgate	N/A	48-10	W	86%	100%	+20.9
19-Sep	East Carolina	73	45-21	W	82%	98%	+15.7	+20.0
26-Sep	at Connecticut	80	28-18	W	83%	99%	-0.9	+3.0
3-Oct	Air Force	63	33-11	W	87%	98%	+15.8	+16.5
10-Oct	at Notre Dame	7	24-41	L	27%	6%	-10.0	-2.5
24-Oct	Tulane	119	31-14	W	48%	77%	-14.4	-6.5
31-Oct	South Florida	44	29-17	W	75%	84%	0.0	+4.5
7-Nov	at Memphis	41	45-20	W	93%	100%	+28.5	+32.5
14-Nov	SMU	106	55-14	W	86%	100%	+12.4	+19.5
21-Nov	at Tulsa	95	44-21	W	87%	100%	+8.3	+11.0
27-Nov	at Houston	26	31-52	L	51%	37%	-27.6	-20.0
12-Dec	vs. Army	108	21-17	W	72%	97%	-35.0	-12.0
28-Dec	vs. Pittsburgh	46	44-28	W	72%	88%	+9.3	+12.5

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	38.3	20	25.3	49
Points Per Game	36.8	22	21.8	26

2. The defense gave out twice

The formula was simple: frustrate opponents with death-by-a-million-cuts efficiency on offense and perfect red zone execution, eat minutes of clock, and prevent big plays on defense. Use your bend-don't-break D to punish offenses who make mistakes after spending so much desperate time on the sideline. It worked brilliantly 11 of 13 times.

Really, only three teams were able to throw Navy off-script: the two best teams on the schedule (Notre Dame, Houston) and the rival that runs a variation of the same offense (Army). Navy survived the rivalry game, but against the Irish and Cougars, the defense couldn't get off the field.

	Navy's 2 losses	Navy's 11 wins
Plays per game	Opp 75.5, Navy 55.5 (-20.0)	Navy 69.0, Opp 62.5 (+6.5)
Yards per play	Navy 7.2, Opp 6.7 (+0.5)	Navy 6.2, Opp 5.4 (+0.8)
Points per game	Opp 47, Navy 28 (-19)	Navy 38, Opp 17 (+21)
Turnover margin	Navy -1.5/game	Navy +2/game

Navy benefited from turnovers luck over the course of the season, though with only one win by one possession, that didn't affect the Midshipmen's record much. In their two losses, though, they couldn't find the mistake that got them off the field. Notre Dame scored on seven of 10 possessions and moved the ball well on an eighth. Houston out-Navy'd Navy, using turnovers and nearly perfect red zone execution to score on eight of nine possessions and eat up at least three minutes of clock six times.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.28	55	IsoPPP+	108.1	44
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	48.1%	14	Succ. Rt. +	115.5	15
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	27.4	20	Def. FP+	28.5	46
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	5.5	2	Redzone S&P+	118.4	12
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	11.3		ACTUAL	8	-3.3

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	48	34	15	44
RUSHING	2	10	6	14
PASSING	126	48	113	26
Standard Downs		31	10	46
Passing Downs		56	105	40

Q1 Rk	31	1st Down Rk	46
Q2 Rk	12	2nd Down Rk	50
Q3 Rk	71	3rd Down Rk	60
Q4 Rk	60

3. Why, oh why, doesn't Ivin Jasper have a head coaching job yet?

It's a mystery we've discussed a few times on Podcast Ain't Played Nobody: Why aren't more option guys getting head coaching jobs? You might not be able to win a national title with the option (at least, not without a ton of help), but there aren't a lot of national title-caliber programs in the world anyway.

With the option, you can gain yards and score points. Indeed, Georgia Tech has ranked in the Off. S&P+ top 40 six times in eight years and in the top 16 three times despite barely recruiting at a top-50 level. Air Force's offense (which, under Troy Calhoun, has been a combination of option and more pro-style blocking) has ranked in the top 70 nine times in 11 seasons. Navy has ranked in the top 40 seven times in 11 years and hasn't ranked worse than 66th in that span.

Like any other offense, it takes the right players and proper practice and execution. But it's a great way to overachieve compared to your recruiting rankings. And a lot of teams could stand to do that.

I got excited when Jasper was rumored to interview for the Hawaii job this past offseason. The Rainbow Warriors ended up hiring Nick Rolovich, and it was unclear if Jasper was ever a serious candidate (or if Hawaii was a candidate for him). And when Niumatalolo didn't take the BYU job -- Jasper is the assumed successor in Annapolis, if there's ever actually an opportunity for succession -- that meant the Niu-Jasper tag team survived for another year. That's good news for Navy, bad news for the proliferation of the option.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2016 Year

Rivals

247 Comp.

Comp

Att

Yards

TD

INT

Comp Rate

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/ Att.

Keenan Reynolds

61

115

1203

8

1

53.0%

14

10.9%

8.5

Tago Smith

5'10, 201

Sr.

NR

NR

2

3

30

1

1

66.7%

0

0.0%

10.0

Will Worth

6'1, 205

Sr.

NR

NR

Garret Lewis

6'1, 200

So.

NR

0.7000

Cole Euverard

6'0, 195

So.

NR

0.7700

Zach Abey

6'2, 218

So.

NR

0.7600

Brandon Coleman

5'10, 175

So.

NR

0.7533

Jacob Harrison

6'1, 185

Fr.

2 stars (5.4)

0.8106

Ramar Williams

6'0, 170

Fr.

3 stars (5.5)

0.8000

4. All about the QB

You need more than just a quarterback to run any offense, obviously. We over-simplify sometimes (and I'm about to), but it should go without saying that everybody has to play their role. If the offensive line stinks, the QB doesn't matter much. If the fullback or slotbacks stink, the QB keeps the ball more and takes more punishment. If there's not a deep threat to punish distracted defenses with in play-action, your offense won't be fully weaponized.

That said, quarterback is still the most important position on the field, and Navy is now tasked with replacing its best QB since Roger Staubach. That's scary.

There is no shortage of candidates, however. Longtime backup Tago Smith is the most likely successor -- Reynolds actually told him, "The offense is now yours" at the football banquet in February -- but he will be pushed. Senior Will Worth has been around a while, too, and between four sophomores and, potentially, two incoming three-star freshmen, there will be upside lower down on the depth chart. But if Smith indeed pulls a Kriss Proctor and does well for a year, that buys time to find a long-term successor among these freshman and sophomores.

Smith has rushed for 294 yards and five touchdowns in spot duty over three years. He's also completed a healthy 12 of 17 passes for 245 yards, four touchdowns, and two picks. Granted, that's a pretty high INT rate, but when given the opportunity, he's shown he can run he offense. Now he has to do it over 12-14 games. If he succeeds, Navy might not fall too much overall.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Keenan Reynolds	QB					251	1480	24	5.9	6.5	40.2%	4	1
Chris Swain	FB					211	1023	10	4.8	3.6	35.5%	3	3
Quentin Ezell	FB					62	317	6	5.1	4.6	35.5%	0	0
DeBrandon Sanders	SB					42	313	0	7.5	5.1	59.5%	1	0
Dishan Romine	SB	5'11, 178	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7811	36	378	0	10.5	9.0	61.1%	1	1
Demond Brown	SB					32	231	5	7.2	5.1	59.4%	0	0
Tago Smith	QB	5'10, 201	Sr.	NR	NR	27	126	1	4.7	3.7	37.0%	1	0
Shawn White	FB	6'1, 255	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	19	84	1	4.4	2.2	52.6%	1	0
Calvin Cass Jr.	SB	5'10, 206	Sr.	NR	NR	16	140	1	8.8	5.5	68.8%	1	1
Toneo Gulley	SB	5'8, 196	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8100	12	189	3	15.8	15.4	66.7%	1	0
Chris High	FB	6'0, 231	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	NR	5	31	0	6.2	2.1	80.0%	0	0
Kendrick Mouton	SB	6'0, 200	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7842
Myles Swain	FB	5'11, 223	Sr.	NR	NR
Josh Brown	SB	5'9, 189	Jr.	NR	0.8342
Joshua Walker	SB	5'11, 210	Jr.	NR	NR
Darryl Bonner	SB	5'7, 171	Jr.	NR	NR
Bryan Hammond	FB	5'10, 190	So.	NR	0.7300
Anthony Gargiulo	FB	6'2, 230	So.	2 stars (5.2)	NR
Jonathan Lee	SB	5'11, 190	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8409
Justin Smith	SB	5'11, 180	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8154
Gregori McCrae	SB	5'10, 173	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8135

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Jamir Tillman	WR-Z	6'4, 206	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8078	45	29	597	64.4%	39.1%	13.3	53.3%	46.7%	2.73
DeBrandon Sanders	SB					17	9	250	52.9%	14.8%	14.7	58.8%	52.9%	2.71
Thomas Wilson	WR-X					9	5	88	55.6%	7.8%	9.8	44.4%	44.4%	2.18
Demond Brown	SB					7	3	41	42.9%	6.1%	5.9	57.1%	28.6%	1.57
Tyler Carmona	WR-X	6'4, 205	Jr.	NR	NR	6	3	64	50.0%	5.2%	10.7	66.7%	50.0%	1.93
Dishan Romine	SB	5'11, 178	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7811	6	2	42	33.3%	5.2%	7.0	50.0%	33.3%	2.22
Craig Scott	WR-X	6'2, 184	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7685	6	2	38	33.3%	5.2%	6.3	66.7%	16.7%	3.10
Calvin Cass Jr.	SB	5'10, 206	Sr.	NR	NR	6	3	34	50.0%	5.2%	5.7	16.7%	33.3%	1.82
Chris Swain	FB					4	1	12	25.0%	3.5%	3.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.00
Chad Lewellyn	WR-Z	6'4, 195	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	NR	3	1	16	33.3%	2.6%	5.3	66.7%	33.3%	1.32
Toneo Gulley	SB	5'8, 196	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8100	2	2	30	100.0%	1.7%	15.0	0.0%	50.0%	2.74
Shawn White	FB	6'1, 255	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	2	2	16	100.0%	1.7%	8.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.00
Keenan Reynolds	QB					1	1	47	100.0%	0.9%	47.0	0.0%	100.0%	4.04
Brandon Colon	WR-Z	6'4, 218	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7889	1	1	5	100.0%	0.9%	5.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.00
Julian Turner	WR	6'2, 190	Sr.	NR	NR
Eli Dawson	WR-X	6'5, 235	Jr.	NR	NR
Taylor Jackson	WR	6'3, 205	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7200
Kerrick Jones	WR	6'1, 160	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8015

5. The big plays are covered

Efficiency is the name of the option game, and with a new quarterback, two new fullbacks, and a brand new line -- three players with starting experience do return, and again, Navy is always loaded with juniors and seniors, but replacing five guys who accounted for 58 of last year's 65 starts is still scary -- it's likely that Navy's efficiency will suffer, at least compared to last year's dominant averages.

Navy could offset some efficiency problems, however, with big plays. Indeed Smith has averaged more than 20 yards per completion in his small sample, and of the three returning wideouts with more than one catch in 2015*, each averaged at least 19 yards a catch. Jamir Tillman was one of the most effective receivers in the country last year and could thrive again with Smith. He averaged 20.6 yards per catch while nabbing nearly two-thirds of his targets. Yes, he benefited from distracted defenses, but that doesn't make him less of a threat.

Plus, there are the requisite burners at slotback. Losing DeBrandon Sanders and Demond Brown hurts, but the trio of seniors Dishan Romine, Calvin Cass Jr., and Toneo Gulley combined for 64 carries, 707 yards, and four touchdowns last year. Those averages will slide with more carries, but slotback is the least of Navy's worries this year.

* That was pretty impressive spin on my part. Tillman caught 29 passes, and the only other two guys who qualify had three catches (Tyler Carmona) and two (Craig Scott).

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	127.4	3.54	3.7	43.3%	89.3%	12.4%	78.3	6.7%	10.2%
Rank	1	3	24	20	1	1	99	99	108

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
E.K. Binns	LG					12	34	2015 1st All-AAC
Joey Gaston	LT					13	29
Brandon Greene	RT					8	15
Ben Tamburello	RG					13	14
Blaze Ryder	C					12	14
Robert Lindsey	RT	6'4, 267	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7700	4	4
Blake Copeland	RT	6'4, 258	Sr.	NR	NR	2	3
Adam West	LG	6'3, 297	Sr.	NR	NR	1	1
Jeremiah Robbins	RG	6'2, 295	Sr.	NR	NR	0	0
Maurice Morris	C	6'2, 315	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7794	0	0
Parker Wade	C	6'2, 265	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7987	0	0
Evan Martin	RG	6'3, 294	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	NR	0	0
Seth White	LT	6'3, 274	Jr.	NR	NR	0	0
Andrew Wood	LT	6'4, 300	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8569	0	0
Chris Gesell	LG	6'4, 295	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7478	0	0
Jake Hawk	RT	6'6, 312	So.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	0	0

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.19	32	IsoPPP+	106.5	43
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	42.1%	71	Succ. Rt. +	97.7	71
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	32.9	14	Off. FP+	31.9	26
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.0	31	Redzone S&P+	97.2	80
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	22.3		ACTUAL	27.0	+4.7

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	40	56	71	43
RUSHING	32	31	55	22
PASSING	62	60	98	43
Standard Downs		38	68	23
Passing Downs		91	85	94

Q1 Rk	55	1st Down Rk	63
Q2 Rk	73	2nd Down Rk	45
Q3 Rk	92	3rd Down Rk	73
Q4 Rk	58

6. The Navy-brand bend-don't-break

In writing these previews for going on six years now, I've kind of run out of things to say about the Navy defense. It is exactly what it is: a patented bend-don't-break that limits big plays, attempts to stiffen in the redzone and looks to pounce on whatever mistake you make, be it a missed assignment or wayward pass.

Last year's version was partciularly effective, at least against everybody not named Notre Dame or Houston. And the Midshipmen's Def. S&P+ rating has actually improved for four straight years, from 104th in 2011, to 101st in 2012, to 97th in 2013, to 74th in 2014, to 49th in 2015.

Navy is still not awash in play-makers, but recruiting does seem to be improving the overall athleticism, and in the secondary especially, Niumatalolo seems to be signing some disruptive guys. And when defensive coordinator Buddy Green went on sabbatical last August (he ended up retiring after the season), line coach Dale Pehrson stepped in and thrived. He's now the full-time DC.

This year's linebacking corps should be one of Niu's best, but turnover at the front and back is an obvious concern.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	96.7	2.94	3.23	38.4%	66.0%	16.5%	75.9	5.3%	5.1%
Rank	79	77	66	68	65	103	103	58	104

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Will Anthony	DE					13	49.0	7.0%	11.5	7.5	0	2	3	0
Amos Mason	DE	6'1, 250	Sr.	NR	NR	13	35.5	5.1%	5.0	2.0	0	4	1	0
Bernard Sarra	NG					13	28.0	4.0%	3.0	0.5	0	0	0	0
David Gordeuk	DE					13	8.0	1.1%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Patrick Forrestal	NG	6'4, 296	Sr.	NR	NR	13	7.0	1.0%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jarvis Polu	DE	6'3, 270	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8414	13	5.0	0.7%	1.0	1.0	0	1	0	0
Sean Reaver	DE					10	5.0	0.7%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Michael Raiford	DE	6'6, 294	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	NR	11	2.5	0.4%	0.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Nnamdi Uzoma	DE	6'3, 245	Sr.	NR	NR	5	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Rob Dusz	NG	6'0, 287	Sr.	NR	NR
Trenton Noller	NG	6'4, 325	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8176
Tyler Sayles	DE	6'2, 240	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7433
Dylan Fischer	NG	6'2, 290	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	NR
Anthony Villalobos	DE	6'2, 260	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8040
Joe Goff	NG	6'5, 265	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8563
Mack Nash	NG	6'5, 255	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8379
Tobe Okafor	DE	6'4, 270	Fr.	2 stars	0.8079

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Micah Thomas	ILB	6'1, 249	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7893	13	56.5	8.1%	4.5	2.5	0	2	0	0
Daniel Gonzales	ILB	6'2, 240	Sr.	NR	NR	11	52.5	7.5%	4.0	0.0	1	1	1	0
D.J. Palmore	OLB	6'3, 227	Jr.	NR	0.7600	13	28.5	4.1%	5.0	2.0	0	1	0	0
Josiah Powell	OLB	6'3, 215	Sr.	NR	NR	13	23.5	3.4%	4.0	1.0	0	3	0	0
Ted Colburn	OLB	6'3, 223	Sr.	NR	NR	12	20.5	2.9%	2.0	1.0	0	2	1	0
Tyler Goble	ILB					12	19.5	2.8%	0.0	0.0	1	0	0	0
Mike Kelly	ILB	6'1, 220	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	NR	13	18.0	2.6%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kevin McCoy	OLB	6'4, 205	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7694	13	13.5	1.9%	3.5	2.5	0	0	3	1
Ryan Harris	LB	5'11, 213	Sr.	NR	NR	13	13.0	1.9%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Brandon Jones	OLB	6'4, 205	Jr.	NR	NR	11	13.0	1.9%	2.0	0.5	0	0	0	0
Myer Krah	OLB					12	8.0	1.1%	0.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Myles Davenport	OLB	6'2, 233	Jr.	NR	NR	13	3.5	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Winn Howard	ILB	6'2, 216	Jr.	NR	NR
Trey Olsen	OLB	6'4, 226	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	NR
Hudson Sullivan	ILB	6'2, 240	So.	NR	NR
Jake Schwarzer	OLB	6'2, 205	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8106
Delonte Berry	OLB	6'2, 212	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8083
Tanner Matthews	OLB	6'3, 222	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8039

7. Anthony was a unique weapon

Navy's havoc ratings aren't particularly special in any given year, but the Midshipmen were strong in short-yardage situations, and in Will Anthony they had a uniquely solid pass rusher. He had 7.5 sacks, five more than anybody else on the team, and he added four non-sack TFLs, batted two passes down, and forced three fumbles. Without him, Navy's havoc rate would have been even worse.

The loss of nose guard Bernard Sarra also hurts considering Navy basically played three linemen all year, and he was the man in the middle in those short-yardage scenarios. Niumatalolo and Pehrson will be forced to expand the depth chart a bit, especially if the offense isn't generating as many time-consuming drives because of efficiency issues. While depth is not even slightly a concern at linebacker -- 10 guys recorded at least 13 tackles in 2015, and nine return -- we'll find out how well Niumatalolo has recruited up front this year. Former star recruits like sophomore ends Jarvis Polu and Anthony Villalobos and junior tackle Trenton Noller might be asked to play larger roles. Will they succeed?

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Lorentez Barbour	FS					13	63.0	9.0%	0.5	0	3	3	2	0
Quincy Adams	CB					12	59.0	8.5%	3.5	0	0	7	1	0
Brendon Clements	CB	5'11, 188	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	NR	13	47.5	6.8%	5	0	4	6	1	0
Daiquan Thomasson	FS	6'0, 195	Sr.	NR	NR	12	37.0	5.3%	0	0	2	4	1	0
Kwazel Bertrand	S					4	15.0	2.1%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Elijah Merchant	CB	5'10, 196	Jr.	NR	NR	12	12.0	1.7%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Sean Williams	SS	6'1, 190	So.	2 stars (5.3)	NR	11	11.0	1.6%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Justin Norton	FS	6'2, 185	Jr.	NR	NR	7	6.0	0.9%	0	0	0	0	1	0
Kyle Battle	CB	6'1, 190	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	NR	13	3.5	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Randy Beggs	FS	6'0, 185	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7967	13	2.5	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Tyris Wooten	CB	6'1, 180	Jr.	NR	NR
Jerry Thompson	SS	6'0, 191	Jr.	NR	NR
Jarid Ryan	CB	5'11, 203	So.	NR	NR
Elijah Jones	CB	5'11, 186	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8344
Michael Onuoha	S	6'3, 200	Fr.	NR	0.8032

8. Clements needs help

Cornerback Brandon Clements was suspended for spring practice for violation of team rules and was only recently reinstated. Assuming he now remains in good standing, he is an outstanding, active play-maker in the back. His five tackles for loss tied for second on the team, and his 10 passes defensed were first.

[Update: Clements was dismissed from the team for good in June.]

He'll need support, though. Gone are safety Lorentez Barbour and corner Quincy Adams, the two leading tacklers (and solid havoc guys) in the secondary. Clements and safety Daiquan Thomasson will be looking for help and occasional play-making from players like corners Elijah Merchant and Tyris Wooten and safeties Sean Williams, Justin Norton, and Jerry Thompson.

Size isn't much of an issue for this defense at any level, but there is definitely less experience this year than last year.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Alex Barta	6'3, 213	Sr.	40	41.6	7	7	10	42.5%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Austin Grebe			79	61.1	20	1	25.3%
Gavin Jernigan			8	58.6	0	1	0.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Austin Grebe			58-61	10-11	90.9%	2-3	66.7%
Nick Sloan			1-1	1-1	100.0%	0-0

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Dishan Romine	KR	5'11, 178	Sr.	24	27.3	0
Toneo Gulley	KR	5'8, 196	Sr.	4	21.0	0
DeBrandon Sanders	PR			6	7.3	0
Calvin Cass Jr.	PR	5'10, 206	Sr.	5	4.6	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	53
Field Goal Efficiency	28
Punt Return Success Rate	3
Kick Return Success Rate	43
Punt Success Rate	112
Kickoff Success Rate	102

9. Need more from the legs

In Dishan Romine, Navy has one of the best kick returners in the AAC, but legs were a bit of an issue. Alex Barta's punts were decent but returnable (opponents averaged 15.8 yards per punt return, the third-highest average in the country), and whoever takes over in kickoffs needs to improve on Austin Grebe's touchback rate of 25 percent. If the offense is less efficient, Navy will need more from special teams to prevent a field position disadvantage.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
3-Sep	Fordham	NR	25.6	93%
10-Sep	Connecticut	81	8.0	68%
17-Sep	at Tulane	122	13.5	78%
1-Oct	at Air Force	80	-0.4	49%
8-Oct	Houston	53	1.5	54%
13-Oct	at East Carolina	78	-1.0	48%
22-Oct	Memphis	77	5.9	63%
28-Oct	at South Florida	41	-8.3	32%
5-Nov	vs. Notre Dame	11	-14.3	20%
12-Nov	Tulsa	93	10.9	74%
26-Nov	at SMU	98	5.6	63%
10-Dec	vs. Army	124	17.9	85%
Projected wins: 7.3

Five-Year F/+ Rk	4.2% (52)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	110 / 96
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	19 / 11.0
2015 TO Luck/Game	+3.1
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	45% (34%, 56%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	10.8 (0.2)

10. A mulligan year

Niumatalolo has now won 68 games in eight seasons and at least eight in all but one year. Navy finished 2015 in the AP top 20 for the first time since 1963. Best of all, Niu stayed. Because of his religion, the BYU opening had a unique draw, but he chose to remain in Annapolis. And now it's hard to imagine him ever leaving.

Life is good, and eventually the Midshipmen will prove that being in a conference will not render their offense ineffective. It should be inconsistent in 2016, however. Combined with what will likely be at least a small drop on defense, I find it difficult to imagine Navy remaining in the S&P+ top 50. (S&P+ projections have the Middies 66th.)

That said, Niu has earned a mulligan year. I have to figure he's got Navy back in the AAC race within a year or two, and honestly, if they're good at home (Houston and Memphis both visit Maryland), the Midshipmen could still play a role in the AAC West race this year. But that's "could," not "should."