Gary Andersen will need at least another year to turn around Oregon State

Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year's team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year's roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

1. Extreme Year Zero

The Year Zero concept is easy enough to explain. Sometimes a coach's first year at a given job almost isn't a first year at all. Sometimes he inherits a squad that is so out of sorts, or depleted or simply not filled with the type of players he needs for the system he wants to implement. In these instances, you basically give him a season to figure out where all the pieces should go and bring in a full year's recruiting class, and then you start the timer in the second year.

My go-to examples are pretty obvious -- Lou Holtz going 0-11 at South Carolina in 1999, then going 17-7 in 2000-01; George O'Leary going 0-11 at UCF in 2004, then going 8-5 in 2005 -- but every year we get more examples of the concept.

I'm not sure "Year Zero" goes far enough in describing what Gary Andersen went through at Oregon State in 2015. This might have been Year Minus-One. It's hard to imagine a less favorable situation to walk into, especially considering he walked into it in the Pac-12, a conference that might have the highest floor of any in college football.

Oregon State had regressed pretty considerably in each of its last two seasons under Mike Riley, who somehow managed to escape the slide by landing the Nebraska job. But while OSU pulled a coup of its own in luring Andersen from Wisconsin, the two-deep didn't give him much to work with and may not again.

• His quarterbacks were redshirt freshmen Nick Mitchell and Marcus McMaryion and true freshman Seth Collins.
• His senior running back (Storm Woods) missed four games, and his backup running back was a redshirt freshman H-back/tight end (Ryan Nall).
• His best tight end (Caleb Smith) played only two games, and only one junior or senior caught more than 15 passes.
• His offensive line started four freshmen or sophomores at least once.
• Freshmen and sophomores accounted for three of the top five tacklers on the defensive line, five of the top 10 at linebacker.
• His secondary was reasonably experienced but constantly banged up; only two of the top 10 DBs played in all 12 games.

The cocktail of youth and injury was incredible, and predictably, OSU had no chance whatsoever of succeeding. The defense had a little bit of success against bad teams; the offense had success against almost nobody. OSU scored more than 24 points four times, but two of the four came while allowing more than 50. Meanwhile, the one time the defense allowed fewer than 21 points to an FBS opponent (17 against Colorado), the offense scored 13.

The best news about the 2015 season is that it ended. But not without a cost. At the end of the year, two of the three freshman QBs transferred (one, Collins, returned as a wide receiver), as did the leading tacklers in the linebacking corps and secondary. Plus, maybe the two best players on the team -- all-conference offensive linemen Josh Mitchell and Isaac Seumalo -- graduated, and Andersen lost defensive coordinator Kalani Sitake, now the head coach at BYU. (He also reassigned offensive coordinator Dave Baldwin, instead giving QBs coach Kevin McGiven and tight ends coach T.J. Woods co-coordinator titles.)

Andersen came back to the west coast, in part because he knows how to succeed here. He knows the avenues and pathways. He has connections. When he took the Wisconsin job in 2013, he hadn't coached east of Utah since 1988, when he was a 24-year old offensive coordinator at Southeastern Louisiana. The move made sense in a lot of ways. But wow, is the task ahead of him pretty tall.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 2-10 | Adj. Record: 2-10 | Final F/+ Rk: 107 | Final S&P+ Rk: 102
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
4-Sep	Weber State	N/A	26-7	W	89%	100%	+5.9
12-Sep	at Michigan	8	7-35	L	16%	0%	-10.9	-12.0
19-Sep	San Jose State	89	35-21	W	77%	83%	+7.7	+6.5
25-Sep	Stanford	6	24-42	L	25%	0%	-0.5	-2.5
10-Oct	at Arizona	77	7-44	L	12%	0%	-36.2	-27.0
17-Oct	at Washington State	54	31-52	L	8%	0%	-17.6	-13.0
24-Oct	Colorado	94	13-17	L	42%	27%	-4.1	-6.0
31-Oct	at Utah	22	12-27	L	35%	6%	+12.0	+9.0
7-Nov	UCLA	28	0-41	L	7%	0%	-20.8	-23.5
14-Nov	at California	29	24-54	L	18%	0%	-7.8	-9.5
21-Nov	Washington	13	7-52	L	6%	0%	-24.8	-30.0
27-Nov	at Oregon	23	42-52	L	28%	2%	+17.1	+24.5

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	24.0	97	35.4	110
Points Per Game	19.0	115	37.0	114

2. The defense needed an athleticism advantage (and the offense was just bad)

Oregon State got just about the easiest possible schedule for a team in the Pac-12 North, drawing Colorado and slumping Arizona among its Pac-12 South opponents. But even with a couple of non-conference gimmes, the Beavers still only played five teams that ranked worse than 29th in last year's F/+ ratings. That's probably not good when you rank 107th.

As you would expect, OSU fared better against the five lesser teams on the schedule, but only one side of the ball actually saw any change.

• Oregon State vs. F/+ top 30:
  Record: 0-7 | Average percentile performance: 19% (~top 105) | Yards per play: Opp 7.1, OSU 5.1 (-2.0)
• Oregon State vs. Everyone Else:
  Record: 2-3 | Average percentile performance: 46% (~top 70) | Yards per play: Opp 5.4, OSU 5.2 (-0.2)

When you're cycling through freshman quarterbacks, your offense is almost certainly not going to succeed. But the defense showed some semblance of game management against lesser teams. Weber State and San Jose State combined to average just 3.5 yards per play, and Colorado averaged 4.8.

Granted, Arizona and Washington State each averaged 7 or more, but Andersen, a coach with a strong defensive history on his résumé, at least showed that his team could control opposing offenses if it had some semblance of an athleticism and experience advantage. Now his job is obvious: create that advantage more often.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.17	108	IsoPPP+	86.9	111
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	37.7%	107	Succ. Rt. +	87.9	112
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	31.3	102	Def. FP+	30.5	87
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	3.8	115	Redzone S&P+	91.2	107
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	17.9		ACTUAL	16	-1.9

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	111	110	112	111
RUSHING	60	98	100	84
PASSING	116	115	116	114
Standard Downs		92	88	95
Passing Downs		123	125	119

Q1 Rk	97	1st Down Rk	99
Q2 Rk	112	2nd Down Rk	105
Q3 Rk	90	3rd Down Rk	55
Q4 Rk	99

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Seth Collins					83	160	935	6	4	51.9%	6	3.6%	5.4
Darell Garretson (Utah State)	6'0, 208	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7833	91	135	1140	8	3	67.4%	9	6.3%	7.6
Nick Mitchell					51	113	571	3	4	45.1%	8	6.6%	4.3
Marcus McMaryion	6'1, 206	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8406	27	67	403	1	3	40.3%	4	5.6%	5.3
Mason Moran	6'3, 200	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8558

3. Is Garretson the guy?

True freshman Seth Collins began the season as OSU's starting quarterback, showed hints of promise against Stanford (20-for-36 for 275 yards and a touchdown) and Washington State (124 rushing yards) and was on his way to a nice game against Colorado (4-for-7 for 77 yards, 50 rushing yards) when he suffered a knee injury that kept him out of most of the rest of the season. His athleticism was obvious --thanks in part to Storm Woods' own injury, Collins finished the season as OSU's leading rusher. He's now a wide receiver after a brief transfer flirtation.

It was next Nick Mitchell's turn. After Collins' solid start against CU, Mitchell came in and went 9-for-24. He was decent against Utah and California, but not really. And he was 0-for-7 against Washington when Marcus McMaryion took over. Mitchell transferred to Dixie State.

McMaryion had been mostly dreadful. He was 8-for-30 passing before the Washington game and, with the offense turned over to him, he was a less bad 19-for-37 for 263 yards, one TD, and two picks against UW and Oregon.

Of the three freshmen who threw passes for the Beavers last year, those responsible for 273 of 340 are either gone or playing a different position. But here comes Darell Garretson to maybe save the day. Garretson was an Andersen recruit at Utah State and spent parts of two seasons in Logan hinting at potential. He took over for oft-injured Chuckie Keeton (now an OSU assistant) in 2013, then got hurt himself in 2014. In 14 career games, he threw for 2,576 yards with a 63 percent completion rate and 137.9 passer rating. He's not much of a runner, but he's immediately the most proven QB on the roster. And he's very nearly the only one, too -- only McMaryion and incoming freshman Mason Moran remain.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Seth Collins	QB/WR	6'3, 195	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8113	102	613	8	6.0	5.2	50.0%	2	1
Storm Woods	RB					99	491	1	5.0	3.8	40.4%	1	0
Ryan Nall	RB	6'2, 235	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8033	73	455	3	6.2	5.0	50.7%	0	0
Victor Bolden	IR	5'9, 181	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8351	36	185	0	5.1	3.4	47.2%	1	1
Chris Brown	RB					32	141	1	4.4	3.6	37.5%	0	0
Nick Mitchell	QB					27	127	1	4.7	2.6	51.9%	4	2
Paul Lucas	IR	5'11, 187	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8722	23	172	0	7.5	14.6	30.4%	0	0
Marcus McMaryion	QB	6'1, 206	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8406	12	47	1	3.9	1.3	33.3%	0	0
Damien Haskins	RB	5'9, 223	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8525	7	62	0	8.9	14.0	42.9%	0	0
Deltron Sands	RB					6	23	0	3.8	1.6	33.3%	0	0
Tim Cook	RB	6'1, 232	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8494
Kyle White	RB	6'0, 192	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8331
Artavis Pierce	RB	5'11, 195	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8228

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Jordan Villamin	OR	6'5, 232	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8529	88	43	660	48.9%	27.8%	7.5	59.1%	40.9%	1.71
Victor Bolden	IR	5'9, 181	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8351	88	46	461	52.3%	27.8%	5.2	61.4%	36.4%	1.30
Caleb Smith (2014)	TE	6'6, 266	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8546	38	20	202	52.6%	8.2%	5.3	63.2%	N/A	N/A
Hunter Jarmon	OR	5'11, 193	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8511	30	16	177	53.3%	9.5%	5.9	53.3%	33.3%	1.51
Datrin Guyton	OR					27	14	178	51.9%	8.5%	6.6	37.0%	40.7%	1.46
Noah Togiai	TE	6'4, 237	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8556	20	10	73	50.0%	6.3%	3.7	65.0%	30.0%	1.18
Storm Woods	RB					18	12	162	66.7%	5.7%	9.0	61.1%	55.6%	1.54
Ryan Nall	RB	6'2, 235	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8033	9	7	109	77.8%	2.8%	12.1	66.7%	55.6%	1.88
Xavier Hawkins	IR	5'8, 180	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8275	9	3	24	33.3%	2.8%	2.7	55.6%	33.3%	0.55
Paul Lucas	IR	5'11, 187	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8722	6	1	7	16.7%	1.9%	1.2	66.7%	16.7%	0.67
Brent VanderVeen	TE					4	1	14	25.0%	1.3%	3.5	50.0%	25.0%	1.52
Rahmel Dockery	OR	5'10, 184	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8211	3	2	15	66.7%	0.9%	5.0	33.3%	33.3%	1.28
Chris Brown	RB					3	2	6	66.7%	0.9%	2.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.00
Seth Collins	QB/WR	6'3, 195	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8113	3	0	0	0.0%	0.9%	0.0	33.3%	0.0%	0.00
Ricky Ortiz	TE	6'0, 235	Sr.	NR	NR
Tuli Wily-Matagi	TE	6'4, 255	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8457
Andre Bodden	OR	6'0, 178	RSFr.	NR	NR
Timmy Hernandez	OR	6'0, 195	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8177
Trevon Bradford	OR	6'0, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8447

4. Variety, at least

Oregon State's running backs depth chart in 2016 will be filled with some combination of Ryan Nall (6'2, 235), Damien Haskins (5'9, 223), JUCO transfer Kyle White (6'0, 192), and freshman Artavis Pierce (5'11, 195). The pecking order in the receiving corps will include big guys (Jordan Villamin, tight ends Caleb Smith and Noa Togiai), little guys (inside receivers Victor Bolden and Hunter Jarmon), and in-betweeners (Collins, JUCO transfer Timmy Hernandez).

At the very least, the Beavers should be able to create a plan of attack that takes advantage of a defense that either doesn't have much size or doesn't have enough speed.

The size lineup is quite a bit more proven. Nall was a revelation at times. The converted tight end battled through injuries that consistently took him off the field, but he had two breakthrough games, gaining 122 yards in 20 carries against Colorado, then putting up 19 carries for 174 yards in the finale against Oregon. He goes by "War Daddy" and delivers as much punishment as he absorbs. If he can stay on the field, he's quite useful.

So is Villamin. If the offense can deliver any sort of efficiency threat with the running game, tight ends, or slot receivers, Villamin could be dangerous downfield. He averaged 15.4 yards per catch and had prolific games against Stanford (seven catches, 138 yards), Utah (three for 94), Cal (seven for 83), and Oregon (four for 72).

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	95.1	3.3	2.32	44.5%	64.3%	18.9%	115.9	4.8%	5.7%
Rank	96	13	120	11	77	55	43	64	31

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Josh Mitchell	C					12	27	2015 1st All-Pac-12
Isaac Seumalo	RG					12	35	2015 2nd All-Pac-12
Sean Harlow	LT	6'4, 298	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8640	7	28
Dustin Stanton	RT	6'6, 304	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8394	12	18
Fred Lauina	LG	6'4, 310	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7893	10	15
Gavin Andrews	RG	6'6, 332	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8466	0	10
Will Hopkins	LT	6'7, 293	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8132	3	3
Drew Clarkson	LG	6'3, 294	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8404	3	3
Brayden Kearsley (BYU)	OL	6'4, 293	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8950	0	3
Kammy Delp	RG	6'3, 325	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8590	1	1
Trent Moore	RT	6'4, 292	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8073	0	0
Yanni Demogerontas	C	6'3, 299	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7900	0	0
Mason Johnson	C	6'2, 304	So.	NR	NR	0	0
Robert Olson	LT	6'5, 292	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7556	0	0
Sosaia Tauaho	LG	6'3, 313	Sr.	NR	NR	0	0
Bobby Keenan	OL	6'6, 299	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7785	0	0
Leo Fuimaono	C	6'2, 300	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8000	0	0
Miki Fifita	OL	6'4, 308	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8467
Blake Brandel	LT	6'7, 296	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8447
Gus Lavaka	RG	6'4, 350	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7858

5. The line was a relative strength

Despite blocking for a different running back and protecting a different quarterback in seemingly every game, OSU's line stats weren't awful. The Beavers struggled in short-yardage (which, in theory, will become less of an issue if Nall can stay healthy) but created a lot of opportunities for their backs and kept their overwhelmed QBs upright for the most part. And they did this without presumptive starting guard Gavin Andrews, who was lost for the season with injury. (Left tackle Sean Harlow missed half the year as well.)

losing Mitchell and Seumalo obviously hurts, but the overall level of experience here is still solid. Of the seven returnees with starting experience (not including BYU transfer Brayden Kearsley), five are juniors and seniors, and tackles Harlow and Dustin Stanton have combined for 46 starts. Simple continuity and experience could lead to quality line play even without the two stars.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.25	63	IsoPPP+	88.5	103
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	50.4%	127	Succ. Rt. +	93.5	92
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	26.5	123	Off. FP+	27.5	108
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	5.0	114	Redzone S&P+	87.3	115
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	13.7		ACTUAL	12.0	-1.7

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	116	103	92	103
RUSHING	115	97	104	83
PASSING	99	110	66	118
Standard Downs		99	92	98
Passing Downs		105	75	111

Q1 Rk	99	1st Down Rk	90
Q2 Rk	93	2nd Down Rk	112
Q3 Rk	90	3rd Down Rk	93
Q4 Rk	87

6. A Kevin Clune defense

Kevin Clune was a Utah graduate assistant when Gary Andersen was the Utes' defensive tackles coach in 2001-02 and became Andersen's defensive coordinator at Southern Utah in 2003. When Andersen moved to USU in 2009, Clune came along to coach linebackers.

Clune took the Hawaii DC job in 2013 when Andersen went to Wisconsin, and while it didn't work out well (109th in Def. S&P+), it only lasted a year -- last fall, he was back at Utah State, improving an already good defense to 26th in Def. S&P+.

Clune is a subscriber to the flexible 3-4 defense Andersen prefers; this isn't the most aggressive of schemes, but Andersen and Clune defenses tend to stop the run well and render you one-dimensional. There was no dimension last year for Oregon State.

The Beavers will lean heavily on JUCOs to provide the depth and playmaking ability that Oregon State simply didn't have last year under Sitake. They were bad at everything, but they were particularly bad up front: 126th in opportunity rate allowed, 125th in power success rate allowed, 123rd in stuff rate, 112th in passing downs sack rate. They created no disruption up front, and then they lost half their two-deep. Of the four JUCOs they signed up front (three linemen, one linebacker), at least a couple of them will have to contribute immediately. Otherwise OSU might again be every bit the same pushover up front.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	88.6	3.40	4.12	47.1%	82.0%	13.8%	87.1	5.4%	4.6%
Rank	112	121	127	126	125	123	85	54	112

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Kyle Peko	DE					12	34.5	4.6%	4.5	2.0	0	2	0	0
Baker Pritchard	DE	6'3, 272	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8640	12	21.0	2.8%	1.5	1.5	0	1	0	0
Lavonte Barnett	DE					12	19.5	2.6%	4.0	2.0	0	1	1	0
Sumner Houston	DE	6'2, 290	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8102	12	14.5	1.9%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jalen Grimble	NT					5	12.0	1.6%	1.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
Kalani Vakameilalo	NT	6'3, 314	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8610	10	8.5	1.1%	3.0	2.0	0	1	0	0
Noke Tago	NT	6'4, 299	Sr.	NR	NR
LaMone Williams	DE	6'3, 281	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8298
Elu Aydon	DT	6'3, 324	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8417
Chris Mengis	DT	6'0, 283	RSFr.	NR	NR
Andrew Iademarco	DE	6'3, 283	RSFr.	NR	NR
Phillip Napoleon	DE	6'4, 285	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8522
David Fangupo	DT	6'2, 325	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8463
Paisa Savea	DT	6'4, 290	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8059
Isaac Garcia	DE	6'4, 225	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8787

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Rommel Mageo	ILB					12	67.0	8.9%	2.0	2.0	2	1	2	0
Jonathan Willis	OLB	6'1, 228	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8019	12	53.5	7.1%	3.5	2.0	0	0	1	0
Caleb Saulo	ILB	6'1, 236	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8152	11	50.0	6.7%	0.5	0.0	1	0	1	0
Manase Hungalu	ILB	6'1, 237	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7556	11	33.0	4.4%	2.5	0.0	1	0	0	0
Jaswha James	OLB					12	31.5	4.2%	2.5	1.0	0	1	1	0
Ricky Ortiz	ILB					11	23.0	3.1%	3.5	2.0	1	0	0	0
Titus Failauga	OLB	6'3, 248	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8017	12	22.0	2.9%	3.0	1.0	0	0	1	0
Kyle Haley	ILB	6'0, 226	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8100	11	17.0	2.3%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Adam Soesman	OLB	6'1, 215	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8475	12	17.0	2.3%	2.0	0.0	0	1	1	0
Bright Ugwoegbu	OLB	6'2, 226	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8104	9	14.0	1.9%	2.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Ricky Liuchan	ILB	6'1, 232	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8266
Wesley Payne	ILB	5'11, 210	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8074
Hamilcar Rashed	OLB	6'4, 225	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8543
Doug Taumoelau	OLB	6'2, 215	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8423
Andrzej Hughes-Murray	ILB	6'3, 230	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8391
Shemar Smith	OLB	6'1, 200	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8074

7. Desperately seeking havoc

Clune's USU defense featured four players in the front seven with at least 11.5 tackles for loss and six with at least three sacks. In 2015, Oregon State had zero of either. That's astounding. And the only two players with more than 3.5 TFLs are both gone.

Sitake loves to attack but just didn't have the horses; unless the aforementioned JUCOs are all great, that probably isn't going to change considerably this fall. But to the extent that there is hope, it comes from the sophomore class. In limited action, tackle Kalani Vakameilalo had three tackles for loss and two sacks (among just 8.5 tackles), OLB Jonathan Willis had 3.5, and fellow OLBs Adam Soesman and Bright Ugwoegbu had two each. If they all undergo solid first-to-second-year development, and a couple of JUCOs make some noise, maybe you've got something.

The good news is that it almost literally can't get worse for OSU from a havoc perspective -- while Clune's USU defense had a decent havoc rate of 16.3 percent (52nd in FBS), Oregon State was dead last at 10.3 percent. Without play-makers, you can only succeed if you never miss a tackle and your opponent gives you some mistakes. There aren't a ton of offensive mistakes in the Pac-12.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Justin Strong	FS					8	44.5	5.9%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Treston Decoud	CB	6'3, 210	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8152	10	40.5	5.4%	3.5	1	0	5	0	0
Cyril Noland-Lewis	NB	6'1, 204	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8453	12	34.5	4.6%	1	0.5	1	1	0	0
Kendall Hill	CB	6'2, 204	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7973	11	33.0	4.4%	2	0	0	1	0	0
Devin Chappell	SS	6'2, 204	Sr.	NR	NR	11	32.0	4.3%	3	0	0	0	0	0
Brandon Arnold	SS	5'11, 202	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8528	11	30.5	4.1%	0.5	0	1	0	0	0
Gabe Ovgard	FS	5'11, 200	So.	NR	NR	12	17.0	2.3%	1.5	0	1	0	0	0
Dwayne Williams	CB	5'9, 180	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7752	11	16.0	2.1%	2.5	0	0	2	0	0
Larry Scott	CB					7	15.5	2.1%	2	0	0	3	0	0
Charles Okonkwo	CB	6'1, 188	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8560	9	8.0	1.1%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Shawn Wilson	CB	5'9, 187	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8498
Jay Irvine	NB	6'1, 200	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8389
Xavier Crawford	CB	6'1, 190	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8295
Omar Hicks-Onu	S	6'1, 196	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8010
Jalen Moore	S	6'0, 212	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	NR
Landry Payne	S	6'1, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8133
Christian Wallace	CB	6'3, 205	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9036

8. Good cornerbacks, at least

Corner Treston Decoud made more havoc plays (TFLs, passes defensed, forced fumbles) than anyone on the Oregon State defense, with a decent but far from amazing 8.5. And in limited action, sophomore Dwayne Williams had 4.5. Williams finished the spring atop the depth chart opposite Decoud. If either gets hurt, OSU might not have a replacement in order, but they could be an excellent duo.

So there's one potential strength, at least. Safety play is still an issue. But there will be a pretty interesting competition between seasoned seniors (Cyril Noland-Lewis, Devin Chappell, Brandon Arnold, converted corner Kendall Hill) and interesting youngsters (redshirt freshmen Jay Irvine, Jalen Moore, and Omar Hicks-Onu).

On third-and-10 or more, opponents managed to complete 18 of 27 passes for 286 yards and only one interception last year. That is horrific, and having a bad pass rush only accounts for part of the problem. Aggressive corners occasionally got burned, and the safeties just couldn't get to where they needed to be.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Nick Porebski	5'10, 198	Jr.	72	41.1	1	34	26	83.3%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Garrett Owens	5'9, 181	Jr.	46	56.0	7	1	15.2%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Garrett Owens	5'9, 181	Jr.	23-23	6-7	85.7%	5-8	62.5%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Victor Bolden	KR	5'9, 181	Sr.	23	25.2	1
Rahmel Dockery	KR	5'10, 184	Sr.	13	19.0	0
Rahmel Dockery	PR	5'10, 184	Sr.	10	6.8	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	66
Field Goal Efficiency	46
Punt Return Success Rate	124
Kick Return Success Rate	101
Punt Success Rate	27
Kickoff Success Rate	125

9. Having a good punter was a very good thing (unfortunately)

Nick Porebski had no choice but to punt balls as high as possible. If a guy got a return off, it was probably going a long way. The Beavers allowed 10.4 yards per punt return (93rd in FBS), and while they allowed just 21.5 yards per kick return (68th), it was accompanied by almost no touchbacks. Opponents were out past the 25 on nearly every (rare) kickoff.

Combine that with getting almost nothing out of the return game, and you've got the makings of an awful special teams unit. But while returns and coverage might not improve, the Beavers at least have Porebski for another two years. His 41.1-yard average wasn't amazing, but nearly half of his punts were fair caught, and only 16 of his 72 punts were returned. That is an underrated strength a... and in OSU's case, a necessary one.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
1-Sep	at Minnesota	42	-13.4	22%
17-Sep	Idaho State	NR	30.4	96%
24-Sep	Boise State	36	-7.7	33%
1-Oct	at Colorado	82	-4.1	41%
8-Oct	California	49	-4.2	40%
15-Oct	Utah	39	-7.1	34%
22-Oct	at Washington	10	-23.3	9%
29-Oct	Washington State	48	-4.3	40%
5-Nov	at Stanford	16	-21.7	10%
12-Nov	at UCLA	12	-22.8	9%
19-Nov	Arizona	64	-2.0	45%
26-Nov	Oregon	18	-14.4	20%
Projected wins: 4.0

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-1.3% (65)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	52 / 54
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	-4 / -4.2
2015 TO Luck/Game	+0.1
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	75% (72%, 78%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	2.2 (-0.2)

10. Now the building begins

Oregon State's end-of-spring depth chart featured still featured all sorts of youth -- 13 positions were listed, and 12 of 26 first- or second-stringers were freshmen or sophomores. On defense, it was 15 of 26. That's the type of youth you expect to inherit in your first year of a rebuild; Andersen is in his second.

Andersen needed two full years to get rolling at USU. In 2009-10, his Aggies went 4-8 twice before taking two steps forward in year three and two more in year four. He's probably going to need at least one more year to get his chessboard arranged in Corvallis.

Depending on how his team maneuvers in close games, however, improvement in the win total is still possible. S&P+ projections only give OSU one sure win (Idaho State) but gives the Beavers between a 33 and 45 percent chance in six other games. Win two of those six, as odds suggest, and you've improved on 2-10. It's a peripheral improvement at best, but it's something, and then the actual improvement can begin in 2017.