How quickly will Rich Rodriguez's latest major change pay off for Arizona?

Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year's team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year's roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

1. Known vs. unknown

Since 2002, Jeff Casteel spent 10 seasons as a Rich Rodriguez defensive coordinator. In those 10 seasons, Rodriguez is 90-38 as an FBS head coach. In four seasons without Casteel, Rodriguez is 18-30.

Casteel's unique 3-3-5 and Rodriguez's always-up-tempo offense have always made for a lovely combination. Rodriguez teams have been designed to have more speed and urgency, and the relationship has been fruitful over a long period.

Arizona's defense completely fell apart in 2015, beset by injuries and a sudden lack of playmakers. The Wildcats' Def. S&P+ ranking fell from 48th to 109th; a 7-6 record belied the true drop-off in quality.

Given the option of relying on his tried and true system or attempting to bring in more play-makers, Rodriguez chose the latter. He dropped Casteel and brought in Marcel Yates, Boise State's aggressive coordinator.

Rodriguez nearly left Tucson this offseason but stuck around. The man who more or less invented the run-first spread now mans a pass-first offense with a run-heavy quarterback. And now he's reinvented his defense.

"There's a tendency to say well, you change coaches, you bring new ones in, so that's why you were bad on defense," Rodriguez said.

"Those guys are good coaches. They didn't forget to coach. But as the head coach I've got the responsibility of trying to fix the problem, and it wasn't just the actual ‘coaching,' per se, it was the recruiting, it was a lot of things.

"So I just decided that instead of going piece by piece, I'm going to blow the whole thing up and start over again. And that was hard because of the loyalty and respect and the fact we'd won a whole lot of games together."

Yates is known as a dynamic recruiter, and has already helped lock up 18 commitments for Arizona's 2017 class; that includes three four-star prospects, per the 247Sports Composite, one more than Arizona signed in February's 2016 class.

Yates' early results at BSU were solid -- after a run of dominance, the Broncos' defense trailed off to 67th in Def. S&P+ in 2013, and Yates engineered a rebound to 38th in 2014 and 33rd in 2015. If you were to offer Rodriguez the 33rd-best defense in the country this second, he would probably accept it.

Still, Casteel's defense would have almost certainly rebounded. Rodriguez traded a known entity for a blurry promise of something more. That should not be a surprise. It isn't the first time.

In last year's preview, I said Arizona was probably going to suffer an off year but noted "Arizona isn't going away" and "When Rodriguez and Casteel are together, good things happen." In order to prove the former, Rodriguez ditched the latter.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 7-6 | Adj. Record: 6-7 | Final F/+ Rk: 77 | Final S&P+ Rk: 77
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
3-Sep	UTSA	111	42-32	W	40%	54%	-15.2	-22.0
12-Sep	at Nevada	97	44-20	W	88%	99%	+13.4	+12.0
19-Sep	Northern Arizona	N/A	77-13	W	87%	100%	+27.6
26-Sep	UCLA	28	30-56	L	22%	2%	-18.6	-22.5
3-Oct	at Stanford	6	17-55	L	7%	0%	-19.4	-38.0
10-Oct	Oregon State	107	44-7	W	82%	100%	+36.2	+27.0
17-Oct	at Colorado	94	38-31	W	67%	88%	-6.2	-0.5
24-Oct	Washington State	54	42-45	L	44%	35%	-5.7	-10.5
31-Oct	at Washington	13	3-49	L	2%	0%	-38.0	-46.0
7-Nov	at USC	17	30-38	L	33%	17%	+15.3	+10.0
14-Nov	Utah	22	37-30	W	79%	90%	+17.8	+13.0
21-Nov	at Arizona State	50	37-52	L	24%	11%	-9.0	-15.0
19-Dec	vs. New Mexico	99	45-37	W	79%	96%	-0.1	+0.0

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	34.6	33	35.4	109
Points Per Game	37.4	20	35.8	107

2. WHEEEEEEE!

At first glance, it appears Arizona went through a roller coaster of a season. Knowing about the injuries -- All-American Scooby Wright III suffered a couple of them and only played in three games (UTSA, UCLA, New Mexico), just about every other linebacker got hurt at some random point, and quarterback Anu Solomon dealt with concussion issues all season -- that would make sense. An unstable lineup produces unstable results.

That said, there's a correlation between the bad performances and the good opponents on the schedule, one that may have helped Rodriguez to conclude he needed to raise his recruiting game.

• Arizona vs. F/+ top 50:
  Record: 1-5 | Average percentile performance: 28% (~top 90) | Yards per play: Opp 6.7, UA 5.3 (-1.4)
• Arizona vs. everyone else:
  Record: 6-1 | Average percentile performance: 70% (~top 40) | Yards per play: UA 7.5, Opp 5.3 (+2.2)

No matter who was in the lineup, when Arizona was playing a pretty bad team, the Wildcats looked the part of a top-40 team, using their athleticism advantage to great effect.

When they played a team with a pulse, they had almost nothing to offer. The offense went from unstoppable to mediocre, and the defense went from decent to horrid.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.39	17	IsoPPP+	111.3	37
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	42.9%	49	Succ. Rt. +	100.1	73
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	29.1	54	Def. FP+	29.5	60
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.9	25	Redzone S&P+	100.3	74
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	22.7		ACTUAL	20	-2.7

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	16	41	73	37
RUSHING	23	45	67	34
PASSING	30	51	74	46
Standard Downs		66	82	63
Passing Downs		18	58	12

Q1 Rk	51	1st Down Rk	25
Q2 Rk	52	2nd Down Rk	24
Q3 Rk	46	3rd Down Rk	24
Q4 Rk	12

3. When your best down is third-and-long...

Arizona's 2015 offense was ... strange. Even with Solomon battling injuries, backups Jerrard Randall and Brandon Dawkins both looked Solomon-esque in their ability to provide a steady run threat. But the UA attack remained pass-first no matter who was behind center. It also remained rather inefficient.

Arizona averaged 6 yards per carry on first downs but ranked just 66th in Standard Downs S&P+, in part because the pass wasn't as efficient as it perhaps should have been. Meanwhile, the Wildcats were fantastic at throwing the ball on passing downs. Legitimately good.

• Arizona's passer rating on first downs: 139.6 (63% completion rate, 12.2 yards per completion)
• Arizona's passer rating on third-and-7 or more: 144.7 (56% completion rate, 16.9 yards per completion)

The Wildcats dug themselves holes, then pulled themselves out. At least, they did against lesser defenses. A wait-till-third-and-long approach doesn't tend to work very well against good teams.

Arizona had big-play ability but was dreadfully inconsistent. Stability at quarterback will help immensely, but in receiver Cayleb Jones and backup running back Jared Baker, the Wildcats have lost a couple of their better big-play guys.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Anu Solomon	6'2, 215	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.8716	205	330	2667	20	5	62.1%	20	5.7%	7.3
Jerrard Randall					47	95	518	5	3	49.5%	1	1.0%	5.3
Brandon Dawkins	6'3, 201	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8647	20	38	338	2	2	52.6%	10	20.8%	6.3
Zach Werlinger	6'1, 188	So.	NR	0.7667
Khalil Tate	6'2, 212	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9177

4. Competition is good

Solomon's full-season numbers were impressive. Despite injuries, and despite missing most of three games, the then-sophomore completed 62 percent of his passes for nearly 2,700 yards, threw just five interceptions to 20 touchdown passes, and gained at least five yards on 51 percent of his carries.

As a freshman, Brandon Dawkins was a rawer Solomon -- more explosive passing, more explosive rushing, more incompletions, and more sacks. He evidently had a good spring, and Rodriguez and his co-coordinators Rod Smith and Calvin Magee proclaimed Solomon was in no way entitled to the starting job.

Between Solomon, Dawkins, and incoming four-star freshman Khalil Tate, one assumes the competition level will be pretty strong in fall camp. This is unquestionably good, as even though Solomon is still the odds-on favorite, issues with head injuries don't go away. Even if Anu remains the starter, Arizona will have reason to make sure that the backups are ready to roll. Dawkins is a tantalizing backup at the moment.

Regardless of who's behind center, balance will be interesting. Solomon is a better passer than Dawkins, and Dawkins is a better runner, but it appears Arizona's pass first (or, at worst, balanced) attack will remain. But it was already suffering from efficiency issues before losing Jones, Johnny Jackson, and David Richards, three of last year's top four targets.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Nick Wilson	RB	5'10, 215	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9039	133	725	8	5.5	5.5	40.6%	2	2
Jared Baker	RB					132	798	9	6.0	7.8	36.4%	1	0
Jerrard Randall	QB					77	710	5	9.2	10.2	53.2%	3	1
Anu Solomon	QB	6'2, 215	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.8716	47	295	3	6.3	4.7	51.1%	8	1
Orlando Bradford	RB	5'8, 206	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8454	47	208	3	4.4	4.4	27.7%	0	0
Brandon Dawkins	QB	6'3, 201	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8647	22	217	2	9.9	16.2	40.9%	2	0
Jonathan Haden	RB					7	44	0	6.3	3.3	57.1%	0	0
Zach Green	RB	5'10, 220	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8463	7	43	0	6.1	4.2	42.9%	0	0
Tyrell Johnson	WR	5'7, 164	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8591	5	21	0	4.2	3.1	40.0%	0	0
Samajie Grant	WR	5'9, 180	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8547	4	21	0	5.3	7.9	50.0%	1	1
Jamardre Cobb	FB	6'0, 257	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9173
J.J. Taylor	RB	5'6, 155	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8396
Russell Halimon	RB	5'10, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8424

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Cayleb Jones	WR					93	55	908	59.1%	21.5%	9.8	60.2%	49.5%	1.81
Nate Phillips	SLOT	5'7, 180	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8166	75	44	564	58.7%	17.3%	7.5	62.7%	49.3%	1.40
Johnny Jackson	SLOT					73	50	612	68.5%	16.9%	8.4	52.1%	49.3%	1.67
David Richards	WR					60	42	547	70.0%	13.9%	9.1	65.0%	58.3%	1.42
Samajie Grant	SLOT	5'9, 180	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8547	51	31	301	60.8%	11.8%	5.9	72.5%	47.1%	1.18
Jared Baker	RB					18	11	101	61.1%	4.2%	5.6	55.6%	33.3%	1.65
Trey Griffey	WR	6'3, 209	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8534	14	11	284	78.6%	3.2%	20.3	50.0%	57.1%	3.29
Josh Kern	TE	6'5, 235	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8481	13	8	59	61.5%	3.0%	4.5	61.5%	38.5%	1.01
Tyrell Johnson	SLOT	5'7, 164	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8591	8	5	41	62.5%	1.8%	5.1	37.5%	25.0%	2.33
Nick Wilson	RB	5'10, 215	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9039	6	4	52	66.7%	1.4%	8.7	50.0%	50.0%	1.69
Shun Brown	SLOT	5'8, 175	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8562	6	4	24	66.7%	1.4%	4.0	33.3%	16.7%	2.26
Tony Ellison	WR	5'11, 178	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8316	3	1	13	33.3%	0.7%	4.3	66.7%	33.3%	0.99
Matt Morin	TE	6'2, 235	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8156
Cam Denson	SLOT	5'11, 179	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9314
Trevor Wood	TE	6'5, 261	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8590
Cedric Peterson	WR	5'11, 199	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8560
Shawn Poindexter	WR	6'6, 210	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8093
Devaughn Cooper	WR	5'11, 175	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8624

5. Plenty of big-play threats

In Jones, Arizona must replace one of the Pac-12's better big-play receivers. Baker was quite the all-or-nothing threat out of the backfield. In the absence of efficiency, Arizona had to rely on explosiveness to bail it out of trouble, and two of the bigger sources of explosiveness are gone.

There's still obvious potential. Running back Nick Wilson isn't as explosive as Baker but had seven carries of 20-plus yards in 133 carries last year. Plus, he's a little bit more efficient. Slot receiver Nate Phillips caught a ton of shorter passes but still gained 25-plus yards on eight of 44 catches, and while Samajie Grant was held in check last year, he averaged 16 yards per catch as a sophomore in 2014. And while he missed half the season in 2015, Trey Griffey has still caught 42 passes for 689 yards (16.4 per catch) over the last two years.

So yeah, there should still be big plays, and especially with Solomon, Arizona should be dangerous on passing downs. The question will be whether the Wildcats are any better at avoiding passing downs to begin with.

That's probably more likely with Solomon healthy, and it could in part depend on the line. Two multi-year starters (center Cayman Bundage and tackle Lene Maiava) are gone, but Arizona does return five players with starting experience. The Wildcats weren't great in short-yardage situations but did a decent job of keeping opponents out of the backfield. Experience should be a plus up front, even if depth is not.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	95.6	2.82	3.64	41.8%	64.8%	18.5%	102.8	5.7%	7.0%
Rank	94	74	28	29	74	48	57	81	57

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Cayman Bundage	C					13	39
Jacob Alsadek	RG	6'7, 318	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8351	12	23
Lene Maiava	RT					13	20
Layth Friekh	LT	6'5, 282	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8633	9	9
Freddie Tagaloa	LG	6'8, 320	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9001	9	9
Zach Hemmila	C	6'3, 310	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8904	6	6
Gerhard de Beer	LG	6'7, 311	Jr.	NR	NR	3	3
T.D. Gross	LT					0	0
Kaige Lawrence	RG					0	0
Levi Walton	C	6'3, 290	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8194	0	0
Christian Boettcher	RG	6'2, 274	So.	NR	NR	0	0
Cody Creason	OL	6'4, 294	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8747
Michael Eletise	OT	6'4, 295	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9213
Bryson Cain	OT	6'4, 270	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8375

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.30	86	IsoPPP+	87.4	106
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	44.1%	91	Succ. Rt. +	94.3	88
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	29.8	66	Off. FP+	29.3	82
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	5.2	122	Redzone S&P+	85.2	120
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	18.9		ACTUAL	16.0	-2.9

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	115	99	88	106
RUSHING	101	65	83	52
PASSING	115	121	91	125
Standard Downs		81	76	76
Passing Downs		123	104	128

Q1 Rk	79	1st Down Rk	78
Q2 Rk	123	2nd Down Rk	50
Q3 Rk	74	3rd Down Rk	120
Q4 Rk	63

6. Talent vs. tactics

"I wasn’t looking so much for a scheme than a personality, a guy who was confident enough in his scheme to be open enough for new ideas and new parameters."

A lot of coaches believe you can lure better offensive prospects with a supposed pro-style offense that would, in theory, prepare guys for the next level. There is some level of evidence, though it's hard to tell for sure -- schools like Alabama are going to recruit well no matter the system. Still, of the top eight teams in last year's 247Sports Composite rankings, six run what we would probably call pro-style attacks (whatever that means at this point). Only Ohio State and Ole Miss are the holdouts.

You could make the case that Rodriguez is casting his lot with a pro-style defense. When you've got a unique system like Casteel's 3-3-5, it's like running the triple option -- opponents don't get to practice against it very much, and you pretty much know how they're going to try to attack it. Being tactically flexible can be good, but it can also mean you don't know what your go-tos are or what your identity is.

You could interpret some of Rodriguez's offseason quotes as him saying Casteel's sytem was too rigid to attract high-end talent. That Wright, the Wildcats' biggest recent star, was a two-star recruit while four-star signees like tackle Marcus Griffin and linebackers Jamardre Cobb and Marquis Ware have struggled to see the field early might indirectly reinforce that. If you want to attract better talent, you have to offer that talent a clear chance to thrive.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	97.6	2.93	3.39	39.2%	78.3%	16.8%	72.6	2.6%	7.3%
Rank	77	76	84	76	117	101	108	116	66

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Reggie Gilbert	DE					13	36.5	4.5%	8.5	3.5	0	1	1	0
Luca Bruno	DT	6'4, 300	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8314	11	23.5	2.9%	1.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Jeff Worthy	DT					12	20.5	2.5%	4.0	3.0	0	0	1	0
Sani Fuimaono	DT	6'1, 294	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8100	13	18.5	2.3%	3.0	1.5	0	1	0	0
Parker Zellers	DT	6'1, 247	Jr.	NR	NR	12	16.0	2.0%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jack Banda	DE	6'3, 240	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8025	13	7.0	0.9%	4.0	3.0	0	0	0	0
Calvin Allen	DE	6'6, 281	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8382	12	6.0	0.7%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Anthony Fotu	DE	6'2, 275	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8708	5	3.5	0.4%	0.0	0.0	1	0	0	0
Marcus Griffin	DT	6'0, 302	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8608
Finton Connolly	DT	6'5, 280	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8457
JJ Allen	DE	6'4, 250	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8681
Justin Holt	DT	6'4, 285	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8362

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
DeAndre' Miller	SLB	6'3, 236	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8656	11	43.0	5.3%	8.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Cody Ippolito (2014)	MLB	6'2, 242	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7863	14	42.5	4.8%	6.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Jake Matthews	SLB	6'3, 230	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	11	38.5	4.7%	2.0	1.5	0	0	0	0
Sir Thomas Jackson	MLB					13	33.0	4.0%	1.5	0.5	0	1	0	0
Scooby Wright III	MLB					3	19.5	2.4%	3.5	2.0	0	0	0	0
Derrick Turituri	WLB	6'1, 265	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8207	4	11.0	1.3%	2.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Haden Gregory	SLB					8	10.5	1.3%	0.0	0.0	0	2	0	0
Tre Tyler	MLB	5'11, 205	So.	NR	NR	12	8.5	1.0%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
RJ Morgan	WLB	6'1, 232	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7973	6	8.0	1.0%	2.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Brandon Rutt	LB	6'1, 215	So.	NR	NR	12	7.5	0.9%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Antonio Smothers Jr.	WLB					10	4.5	0.6%	2.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
John Kenny (Iowa)	LB	6'1, 230	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8625
Marquis Ware	LB	6'0, 229	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9213
Jamardre Cobb	LB	6'0, 257	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9173
Kahi Neves	LB	6'4, 240	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8560
Jacob Colacion	LB	6'1, 210	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8462
Jalen Cochran	LB	6'4, 225	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8429

7. Any havoc left?

With Wright leading the way in 2014, Arizona's three-man linebacking corps combined for 42.5 tackles for loss and 19 sacks. In an injury-riddled 2015, those totals fell to 27.5 TFLs and seven sacks. Consequently, Arizona's havoc rate fell from 15.9 percent (basically the national average) to 12.6 (119th in FBS).

Any system with a three-man line is going to try to take advantage of its speed before you can take advantage of its lack of size. Casteel's was no different. But while this was never the most disruptive of systems, Arizona's 2015 defense was not even slightly disruptive.

Yates' 2015 Boise State defense generated a havoc rate of 21.5 percent, fourth in the country. Think about the difference between 21.5 percent and 12.6 percent -- that means that on an extra 8.9 percent of plays (about one in 11), Boise State was making a tackle for loss or breaking up a pass or forcing a fumble. You think that might make a difference?

Yates wants to unleash hell, attack the ball, and force opponents to adjust before Arizona has to. The question is whether he has any horses to pull that off. Wright is gone, as is leading end Reggie Gilbert. Of the returnees listed above, only three made more than even three tackles for loss last year, and three isn't very many.

There is potential, of course. Jack Banda made three sacks among his seven tackles as a reserve last year, linebacker Cody Ippolito is back after missing 2015, and reserve LBs like Derrick Turituri and RJ Morgan were each disruptive in limited action. Plus, there are the aforementioned four-star sophomores, for whom it isn't too late to break through.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Will Parks	SPUR					13	64.5	7.9%	7	0	0	7	2	0
Paul Magloire Jr.	S	6'1, 221	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8543	13	63.0	7.7%	4	0	0	1	1	0
DaVonte' Neal	CB	5'10, 178	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9731	12	56.5	6.9%	2	0	1	5	0	0
Jamar Allah	FS					13	53.5	6.5%	2	0	3	1	0	1
Tellas Jones	BANDIT	6'0, 199	Sr.	NR	NR	11	48.5	5.9%	7	3	0	2	1	0
Cam Denson	CB					13	35.5	4.3%	1	1	3	1	1	0
Anthony Lopez	SPUR					13	31.0	3.8%	4	3	1	0	0	0
Jarvis McCall Jr.	CB	6'2, 202	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8600	12	24.5	3.0%	0	0	1	5	0	0
Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles	FS	6'2, 199	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8179	13	24.5	3.0%	1	0	1	0	1	0
Jace Whittaker	CB	5'10, 163	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8100	11	22.0	2.7%	1	0	0	4	0	0
Carter Hehr	S	5'10, 191	Jr.	NR	NR	12	16.5	2.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Kwesi Mashack	CB	5'8, 206	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8280	7	6.0	0.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Devin Holiday	CB	5'10, 170	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8385	13	5.0	0.6%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Sammy Morrison	CB	5'9, 169	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8327	12	2.5	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jarek Hilgers	S	6'0, 207	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7926	9	2.0	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Devon Brewer	CB	5'10, 171	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8232	8	2.0	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Dane Cruikshank	CB	6'1, 204	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8428
Anthony Mariscal	S	5'10, 194	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8519
Chacho Ulloa	S	6'0, 190	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8857
Isaiah Hayes	S	6'0, 175	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8533
Gavin Robertson	S	6'2, 200	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8367
Lorenzo Burns	CB	6'0, 165	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8327

8. Plenty of competition in the back

Arizona's pass defense was miserable last year. The Wildcats weren't particularly aggressive but still gave up 27 passes of 30-plus yards in 2015, 116th in FBS and second-to-last in the Pac-12. Without Wright, the pass rush was totally nonexistent, and Arizona was one of the worst in the country at defending passing downs.

As good as Solomon was on passing downs in 2015, opponents were better, completing 35 of 59 passes for 591 yards, two touchdowns, and only one pick on third-and-7 or longer. Passer rating: 151.3. Yuck.

The good news is that there are plenty of experienced options returning. Safeties Tellas Jones and Paul Magloire Jr. combined for 11 tackles for loss and three passes defensed, and cornerbacks DaVonte' Neal, Jarvis McCall Jr., and Jace Whittaker combined for 16 passes defensed. And Rodriguez signed four relatively well-regarded freshman DBs; he probably doesn't intend to redshirt all of them.

In a more aggressive defense, Arizona is probably still going to allow a ton of big plays. But opponents also completed 62 percent of passes with only 11 interceptions; if those numbers improve, then the turnover and field position averages improve, too.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Drew Riggleman			52	45.3	6	3	15	34.6%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Casey Skowron			87	60.5	33	4	37.9%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Casey Skowron			59-61	11-13	84.6%	7-9	77.8%
Josh Pollack	5'10, 184	So.	1-1	0-0	N/A	0-0	N/A

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Tyrell Johnson	KR	5'7, 164	Jr.	16	25.5	0
Nate Phillips	KR	5'7, 180	Sr.	8	19.5	0
Nate Phillips	PR	5'7, 180	Sr.	7	17.3	1

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	52
Field Goal Efficiency	18
Punt Return Success Rate	83
Kick Return Success Rate	114
Punt Success Rate	87
Kickoff Success Rate	70

9. An all-or-nothing return game

Here's a pretty good example between averages and efficiency. Arizona averaged a decent 22.8 yards per kick return (36th in FBS) and 16 yards per punt return (sixth) in 2015. That pretty clearly exemplifies the potential that Tyrell Johnson and Nate Phillips have in the back. But Arizona's efficiency numbers -- 83rd in punt return success rate, 114th in kick return success rate -- were pretty dreadful, suggesting that for every big return, there were quite a few tiny ones.

Still, all-or-nothing is better than simply nothing, and with the loss of place-kicker Casey Skowron, Johnson and Phillips are the closest thing to proven entities that Arizona has in special teams.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
3-Sep	vs. BYU	35	-5.7	37%
10-Sep	Grambling State	NR	35.9	98%
17-Sep	Hawaii	118	19.6	87%
24-Sep	Washington	10	-10.8	27%
1-Oct	at UCLA	12	-17.3	16%
8-Oct	at Utah	39	-8.6	31%
15-Oct	USC	8	-11.1	26%
29-Oct	Stanford	16	-9.2	30%
5-Nov	at Washington State	48	-5.8	37%
12-Nov	Colorado	82	8.4	69%
19-Nov	at Oregon State	86	2.0	55%
25-Nov	Arizona State	57	2.5	56%
Projected wins: 5.7

Five-Year F/+ Rk	11.3% (44)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	44 / 44
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	-4 / -3.8
2015 TO Luck/Game	-0.1
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	63% (61%, 65%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	6.9 (0.1)

10. Beat BYU

Because of last year's sudden drop to 77th in S&P+ (almost entirely due to defense), Arizona isn't a numbers darling. Projected 64th, the Wildcats start on the bottom of the non-OSU/Colorado pile in the Pac-12. Consequently, they are projected to finish right on the border of bowl eligibility.

Rodriguez's reinvention offers a chance to thwart these projections, for better or worse, but there's some work to do. S&P+ says Arizona has between a 26 and 41 percent chance of winning in six games, then finishes the year with back-to-back tossups against Oregon State and Arizona State.

If offensive health and defensive changes help to move Arizona back into the top 40, a 7-5 or 8-4 season becomes the most likely outcome. And there would be no better way to prove you've rebounded and stabilized than by taking down BYU in Glendale to start the year. (Glendale is graded as a "neutral site" -- you could adjust that to move another point or two toward Arizona if you wanted, though the crowd will be very mixed.)

Rodriguez has reinvented himself before, and 2016 appears to be the beginning of his second act in Tucson. The gambles might not pay off, but they certainly have before.