Mike Leach ended Washington State's decade lost at sea. Now what's next?

Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year's team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year's roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

1. Back to land

In 2005, Bill Doba's Washington State Cougars, just two years removed from three consecutive top-10 poll appearances, had hit what seemed like hard time. They were 30-8 from 2001-03, and after a 5-6 campaign in 2004, they appeared close to a rebound.

Alex Brink threw for nearly 3,000 yards, and Jerome Harrison rushed for nearly 2,000, but they lost five games by four or fewer points in a six-week span in conference play and finished 4-7. By the numbers, they were an average Pac-10 team; bad luck gave them a below-average record.

Wazzu fans were used to ups and downs. Even during the immensely successful Mike Price era, which featured five ranked finishes, five bowls and two Rose Bowls, success wasn't sustained without missteps.

WSU won eight games in 1995-96 before the 10-win Rose Bowl season in 1997. Before the 2001-03 run (Price left after 2002), the Cougars won 10 combined games in 1998-00. When the talent and experienced were properly balanced, the Cougars erupted. But Pullman is as much Idaho as Washington, and it's always going to be difficult to consistently recruit well. Price was great, and the successes were undeniable. And sporadic.

Doba fought the tide for two more years, going 6-6 in 2006 and 5-7 in 2007. The Cougars still weren't bad, but they weren't good enough. Doba was dumped in favor of Eastern Washington head coach Paul Wulff. He had won nine games with EWU in 2007; he won nine in four years with Wazzu.

Ups and downs are one thing, but Washington State just spent a decade in the wilderness. After four horrific years with Wulff, WSU hired Mike Leach. He managed a bowl bid in 2013 and established a mediocre level of play in 2013-14 -- and hey, mediocre is great when you've been lost in the wilderness. In 2015, his Cougars weren't demonstrably better than they had been, but they improved enough, and got just lucky enough, to have a truly happy, exciting season.

In 2015, WSU opened the season with a loss to Portland State, then followed with nine wins in 12 games. It was the Cougars' first truly good season in 12 years.

It took him a while, but Leach finally dragged WSU out of the wilderness and produced conference-average play in Pullman. It took five one-possession wins and 3.4 points per game in positive turnover luck to do it, but WSU fans more than deserved a happy season, and they got one.

Now, how long will it take to get another?

First things first: It's going to be really hard to win nine games again this year. If you're an optimistic fan, you're going to look at the players returning this year -- quarterback Luke Falk, the top three rushers, 10 of 11 receivers, an all-conference offensive lineman, two 11-TFL defenders in the front seven, aggressive safeties Shalom Luani and Parker Henry -- and figure, "We're going to be even better than last year!" And that could very well be true for Wazzu.

But the Cougars weren't an amazing team on paper and needed some good fortune to break through. That fortune doesn't tend to last. WSU should absolutely expect to improve further, but with a schedule that features four projected top-20 opponents (three in consecutive weeks in October) and an early trip to Boise State, a reversal in luck could mean a trip back down toward .500.

Regardless, Leach has restored life in Pullman. He has towed the wayward pirate ship to shore. There will almost certainly be drastic ups and downs moving forward; it's the way life is going to be at WSU regardless, and in a Pac-12 with tons of solid teams -- with the improvement of WSU, Washington, and Cal, there is only one easy out in the Pac-12 North, and Oregon State made a good hire last year as well -- a little bit of improvement or regression could make a huge difference.

But WSU is living and breathing again. Even if this team struggles to meet expectations, that probably isn't going to change in 2016.

Seriously, though, I could have skipped this intro entirely and simply posted this F/+ progression image. It takes a while to dig yourself out of a trench.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 9-4 | Adj. Record: 8-5 | Final F/+ Rk: 54 | Final S&P+ Rk: 63
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
5-Sep	Portland State	N/A	17-24	L	18%	23%	-21.6
12-Sep	at Rutgers	101	37-34	W	54%	80%	+1.5	+5.0
19-Sep	Wyoming	115	31-14	W	64%	95%	-1.6	-7.0
3-Oct	at California	29	28-34	L	49%	41%	+12.5	+13.0
10-Oct	at Oregon	23	45-38	W	54%	48%	+19.8	+24.0
17-Oct	Oregon State	107	52-31	W	89%	100%	+17.6	+13.0
24-Oct	at Arizona	77	45-42	W	56%	65%	+5.7	+10.5
31-Oct	Stanford	6	28-30	L	47%	22%	+7.9	+10.0
7-Nov	Arizona State	50	38-24	W	65%	81%	+11.1	+11.5
14-Nov	at UCLA	28	31-27	W	69%	69%	+20.8	+13.5
21-Nov	Colorado	94	27-3	W	90%	100%	+12.4	+9.0
27-Nov	at Washington	13	10-45	L	22%	3%	-23.8	-35.0
26-Dec	vs. Miami-FL	62	20-14	W	40%	31%	+9.9	+3.5

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	32.2	47	29.2	72
Points Per Game	31.5	49	27.7	74

2. The in-between was great

Your first and last impressions are overrated. The season began with a misstep against Portland State, your regular reminder that Week 1 performances can be amazingly misleading. (It's okay -- we all get amnesia and forget this lesson every single damn year.) Meanwhile, the season ended with an Apple Cup dud and a weird Sun Bowl performance against both Miami and snowy conditions.

In between, the Cougars were rock solid. Not great, but solid.

• Wazzu in the first game and last two:
  Record: 1-2 | Average percentile performance: 27% (~top 95) | Average score: Opp 28, WSU 16 | Yards per play: Opp 5.5, WSU 5.0 (-0.5)
• Wazzu in the 10 games in-between:
  Record: 8-2 | Average percentile performance: 64% (~top 45) | Average score: WSU 36, Opp 28 | Yards per play: WSU 6.2, Opp 5.9 (+0.3)

Wazzu fans weren't big S&P+ fans during the season last year, and I addressed the issue in mid-November. But it bears mentioning that S&P+ was closer than Vegas in its WSU projections eight of 12 times. The Cougars were simply a strange team to figure out last year, and luck of the bounce made things even stranger.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.16	113	IsoPPP+	98.5	74
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	47.9%	15	Succ. Rt. +	105.0	54
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	31.1	96	Def. FP+	30.4	84
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.3	77	Redzone S&P+	97.6	82
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	31.3		ACTUAL	25	-6.3

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	25	65	54	74
RUSHING	128	67	39	94
PASSING	1	79	49	85
Standard Downs		63	41	78
Passing Downs		55	44	64

Q1 Rk	59	1st Down Rk	53
Q2 Rk	38	2nd Down Rk	98
Q3 Rk	96	3rd Down Rk	77
Q4 Rk	59

3. Orthodoxy

Louisville's Bobby Petrino is exploring a fascination with mobile quarterbacks. Arizona's Rich Rodriguez is running a pass-first offense; in 2015, WVU's Dana Holgorsen ran a nearly run-first offense. Alabama's Nick Saban has, to some small degree, embraced tempo.

Stick around in the coaching game long enough, and your philosophy could change. Maybe you notice the game itself changing and realize that there's a better way to win. Maybe opponents have just tried to adapt to your attack to such a degree that you find more success doing the opposite.

Or maybe you're Mike Leach, and you don't change much of anything.

When Leach got back into coaching, we were really curious to see what he would change. Previous proteges like Holgorsen had been tinkering more with the run in his absence, and from his first spring in Pullman, we heard rumors of pistol formations and different looks.

Instead, we got the Mike Leach offense. Four years into his second head coaching stint, Leach's team was still throwing more frequently than anybody. Way, way, way more. On standard downs, Mississippi State ran the ball just 44.1 percent of the time, second-least in FBS. Washington State was at 30.2 percent. On passing downs, Western Kentucky ran 18.4 percent of the time, second-least; Wazzu was at 10.5 percent. Washington State's leading rusher averaged eight carries per game. Eight! Two per quarter! Meanwhile, Falk missed a game and a half and still threw 644 passes.

It's almost admirable, sticking to what you know in a changing world. Leach is the bizarro version of Woody Hayes, Darrell K Royal, and all the other coaches to whom the "Three things can happen when you pass, and two are bad" mantra was pinned. Mike Leach is going to throw the ball -- short, medium, long; left, middle, right -- no matter what else is going on in the universe. He's going to throw it 67 percent of the time when he's winning big and 80 percent of the time when he's losing big. It's comforting to have constants in life.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Luke Falk	6'4, 214	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	NR	447	644	4561	38	8	69.4%	37	5.4%	6.3
Peyton Bender					53	91	498	3	4	58.2%	3	3.2%	5.1
Tyler Hilinski	6'3, 191	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8608
Justus Rogers	6'2, 218	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8303

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Gerard Wicks	RB	6'0, 226	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8209	107	610	3	5.7	4.9	42.1%	2	2
Jamal Morrow	RB	5'9, 191	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8314	53	347	0	6.5	4.5	56.6%	1	0
Luke Falk	QB	6'4, 214	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	NR	45	157	3	3.5	3.2	35.6%	9	0
Keith Harrington	RB/WR	5'8, 191	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8509	37	238	2	6.4	5.8	48.6%	3	3
James Williams	RB	5'11, 195	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8528
Romello Harris	RB	5'10, 175	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8513

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Gabe Marks	WR-Z	6'0, 188	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9287	149	104	1192	69.8%	20.8%	8.0	61.1%	55.0%	1.35
Dom Williams	WR-X					130	75	1040	57.7%	18.1%	8.0	66.2%	52.3%	1.45
River Cracraft	SLOT	6'0, 203	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8247	78	53	609	67.9%	10.9%	7.8	61.5%	55.1%	1.26
Robert Lewis	SLOT	5'9, 162	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8691	56	43	490	76.8%	7.8%	8.8	67.9%	62.5%	1.27
Gerard Wicks	RB	6'0, 226	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8209	54	39	149	72.2%	7.5%	2.8	75.9%	31.5%	0.70
Keith Harrington	SLOT	5'8, 191	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8509	51	43	312	84.3%	7.1%	6.1	74.5%	45.1%	1.33
Kyrin Priester	SLOT	6'1, 194	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8913	43	33	241	76.7%	6.0%	5.6	74.4%	41.9%	1.18
Jamal Morrow	RB	5'9, 191	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8314	41	34	309	82.9%	5.7%	7.5	68.3%	53.7%	1.30
John Thompson	SLOT	5'8, 192	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	NR	37	24	255	64.9%	5.2%	6.9	54.1%	48.6%	1.17
Kyle Sweet	SLOT	6'0, 190	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8457	31	21	222	67.7%	4.3%	7.2	51.6%	45.2%	1.49
Tavares Martin Jr.	WR-X	6'1, 182	So.	3 stars (5.5)	NR	23	16	124	69.6%	3.2%	5.4	60.9%	39.1%	1.42
Tyler Baker	SLOT					17	13	114	76.5%	2.4%	6.7	76.5%	47.1%	1.30
CJ Dimry	WR	6'5, 200	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7819
Brett Bartolone	WR	5'10, 185	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	NR
Kaleb Fossum	WR-X	5'10, 186	So.	NR	NR
Isaiah Johnson	WR-Z	6'3, 214	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8646
Renard Bell	WR	5'10, 165	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8437
Grant Porter	WR	6'2, 185	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8428

4. More big plays wouldn't hurt

Wazzu has basically run a bend-don't-break offense of late, capable of constantly staying ahead of the chains but pulling off fewer big plays than preferable. Because of pure volume, the Cougars had more passes of 10-plus yards (200) than anyone else in FBS, but they had only 19 30-yarders, 54th in the country and fewer than such passing non-stalwarts as Kansas State, Florida, Rice, and Virginia Tech. Fewer than Stanford, even!

There are two ways to attempt to move the football: by creating numbers advantages for yourself, or by having your guys simply beat the guys across from them. Wazzu's skill guys don't tend to beat their opponent very frequently, turning short passes into huge gains. But if you are accurate enough in simply getting them the ball and working the ball up the field six to eight yards at a time, you can still rack up points and yards. And unlike predecessor Connor Halliday, Falk seems perfect content with this approach -- he isn't fighting hero-ball instincts like Halliday frequently seemed to be doing.

Of the 13 players who caught at least four passes in 2015, only one averaged better than 11.6 yards per catch (Dom Williams) and one averaged more than 8 yards per target (Robert Lewis). But the success rates were tremendous. That will almost certainly be the case again in 2016, but with Williams gone, Wazzu has gone from one known deep threat to zero.

In Gabe Marks, you've got the receiver version of a workhorse back. And inside receivers River Cracraft and Lewis are ultra-efficient. Keith Harrington, easily the most explosive running back of last year's trio, has evidently moved to inside receiver as well. Chances are this offense is what it is; the big plays aren't likely to change much.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	96.4	3.14	3.13	45.3%	65.6%	18.1%	107.0	5.2%	5.1%
Rank	88	26	75	5	71	44	50	74	19

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Eduardo Middleton	RG	6'5, 323	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8395	13	25	2015 1st All-Pac-12
Joe Dahl	LT					9	34	2015 2nd All-Pac-12
Gunnar Eklund	LG					13	45
Riley Sorenson	C	6'4, 327	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8472	12	22
Cole Madison	RT	6'5, 305	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8119	13	21
Jacob Seydel	RT					2	6
Sam Flor	C					1	3
Andre Dillard	LT	6'5, 290	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8159	2	2
Cody O'Connell	LG	6'8, 351	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8362	0	0
B.J. Salmonson	RT	6'4, 281	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7652	0	0
Carlos Freeman	OL	6'3, 308	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8141	0	0
Mack Hopkins	LG	6'5, 309	So.	NR	NR	0	0
Noah Osur-Myers	C	6'4, 309	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8375
Cedric Bigge-Duren	LT	6'6, 320	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8280
Drew Norvell	RG	6'4, 293	RSFr.	NR	NR
Frederick Mauigoa	OL	6'4, 295	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8632

5. Good at exactly what you need to be good at (and nothing more)

Wazzu's line kept Luke Falk upright on passing downs and gave running backs a shot at the second level in rare rush attempts. The Cougars weren't great in short yardage (lack of practice, probably), but that's not part of the package. WSU was successful in the areas where it most needed to be successful. It rarely moved backwards.

The quick passing game neutralizes any line disadvantages by getting the ball out of the quarterback's hands too quickly for pressure to occur. So that should make the loss of two starters (including all-conference tackle Joe Dahl) more palatable. There was enough shuffling last year that eight guys ended up starting at least one game, and four of them are back. Barring implosion at left tackle, things should be fine here.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.24	58	IsoPPP+	103.9	52
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	43.4%	85	Succ. Rt. +	103.0	53
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	30.0	60	Off. FP+	30.1	61
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	3.8	17	Redzone S&P+	107.3	37
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	22.1		ACTUAL	24.0	+1.9

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	84	55	53	52
RUSHING	95	92	69	106
PASSING	64	24	38	20
Standard Downs		44	45	45
Passing Downs		78	89	69

Q1 Rk	54	1st Down Rk	60
Q2 Rk	40	2nd Down Rk	36
Q3 Rk	59	3rd Down Rk	68
Q4 Rk	74

6. A good first step for Grinch

Former Missouri safeties coach Alex Grinch took over Leach's defense in 2015, and while improvement wasn't rampant, it was obvious. Wazzu improved from 95th to 72nd in Def. S&P+, and Grinch was quickly able to do some damage with a secondary made up mostly of sophomores and juniors. Run defense was problematic, but pass defense was downright strong. And any defensive strength is an improvement for Wazzu.

The secondary should get even better in 2016, as sophomores and juniors turn into juniors and seniors. But the front seven is a mystery. Six Cougars produced at least nine tackles for loss a year ago, but only two are back. End Hercules Mata'afa was a dynamic pass rusher as a freshman, and Peyton Pelluer was Wazzu's best run defender. But that's it. And since WSU basically played only five linemen and five linebackers, we don't really know what the reinforcements are like.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	99	2.83	3.75	43.2%	57.1%	22.5%	116.9	5.5%	8.3%
Rank	68	57	117	119	20	34	37	52	45

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Darryl Paulo	DE					13	30.0	4.1%	13.5	5.5	0	1	1	0
Destiny Vaeao	DE					13	30.0	4.1%	12.0	4.5	0	1	1	0
Hercules Mata'afa	DE	6'2, 245	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8075	13	26.0	3.5%	11.0	7.0	0	0	1	0
Daniel Ekuale	DE	6'3, 296	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	NR	13	20.0	2.7%	5.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Robert Barber	NT	6'3, 309	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	NR	12	12.0	1.6%	4.5	1.0	0	0	2	0
Reggie Coates	DE					6	2.0	0.3%	1.0	1.0	0	1	1	0
Jeremiah Mitchell	DE	6'4, 270	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8412
Ngalu Tapa	DT	6'2, 314	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8059
Kingston Fernandez	DE	6'2, 260	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8033
T.J. Fehoko	DE	6'1, 272	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8495
Hunter Mattox	NT	6'3, 270	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8442
Nnamdi Oguayo	DE	6'3, 218	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7785
Garrett McBroom	DE	6'3, 276	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7893
Lyric Bartley	DE	6'3, 245	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8381

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jeremiah Allison	WILL					13	79.5	10.7%	5.0	0.0	1	1	0	0
Peyton Pelluer	MIKE	6'0, 229	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8369	13	79.0	10.7%	11.0	0.0	1	2	2	0
Ivan McLennan	RUSH					13	33.5	4.5%	9.0	6.0	0	2	0	0
Isaac Dotson	WILL	6'1, 214	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8259	8	31.5	4.3%	1.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Kache Palacio	RUSH					13	28.5	3.8%	10.0	5.0	0	0	2	0
Chandler Leniu	MIKE	6'0, 260	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8683	12	11.0	1.5%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Frankie Luvu	WILL	6'2, 239	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8233	11	11.0	1.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Dylan Hanser	RUSH	6'4, 230	Jr.	NR	0.7900	11	9.5	1.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Logan Tago	RUSH	6'3, 240	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8200	12	8.0	1.1%	0.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
Nate DeRider	LB	6'1, 222	Jr.	NR	NR	13	6.5	0.9%	0.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Aaron Porter	LB	6'3, 228	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8491	12	3.0	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Paris Taylor	WILL	6'3, 215	Sr.	NR	0.7667
Greg Hoyd III	LB	6'1, 230	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8472
Chima Onyeukwu	LB	6'3, 215	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8541
Suliasi Tamaivena	LB	6'2, 225	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8467
Mason Vinyard	LB	6'5, 215	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8471

7. The downside of a small rotation

Mata'afa and Pelluer are lovely building blocks, but of last year's 10 regulars, only five return. Linebackers Chandler Leniu, Frankie Luvu, Dylan Hanser, and Logan Tago all saw a little bit of action, but they combined for 1.5 tackles for loss between them.

So we don't know much about some of the players who will be counted on this fall. Leniu was a four-star recruit per Rivals, and Tago appears to have some potential as a rush end. But if Wazzu's front seven improves in 2016, it's going to be because of newcomers to the rotation, especially on the line. Of JUCO transfers Garrett McBroom (DE), Chima Onyeukwu (LB), and Suliasi Tamaivena (LB), at least one, preferably two (most preferably McBroom) will need to provide early disruption. Meanwhile, Leniu, Tago, and big tackle Ngalu Tapa will need sophomore leaps. And if someone like redshirt freshman T.J. Fehoko or Hunter Mattox wants to quickly break through, that would be great.

It could happen. But the odds are against it. The more likely bet is on a level of quality familiar to what we saw last year, if not slightly worse.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Shalom Luani	FS	6'0, 198	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8892	13	78.5	10.6%	3	0	4	6	2	0
Parker Henry	NB	5'11, 203	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	13	53.5	7.2%	6.5	1	1	1	0	0
Taylor Taliulu	SS					13	42.5	5.7%	1	0	1	6	0	0
Darrien Molton	CB	5'10, 173	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8539	11	39.0	5.3%	1	0	1	4	1	0
Marcellus Pippins	CB	5'10, 170	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8426	13	35.5	4.8%	1	0	3	6	0	1
Charleston White	FS	6'0, 195	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8082	12	28.0	3.8%	0	0	1	2	0	0
Kirkland Parker	NB	6'1, 182	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8367	12	13.5	1.8%	1	0	0	2	1	0
Calvin Green	SS					9	5.0	0.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Colton Teglovic	NB	6'0, 188	Sr.	NR	NR	11	4.0	0.5%	1.5	0	0	0	0	0
Darius Lemora	NB	6'0, 193	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8141	7	3.5	0.5%	2	0	0	0	0	0
Treshon Broughton	CB	6'0, 174	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8495	8	3.0	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Hunter Dale	SS	5'10, 203	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8631
Suli Hameed	S	5'10, 185	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8345
Kameron Powell	S	6'0, 194	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8760
Deion Singleton	CB	6'2, 184	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8612
Robert Taylor	DB	5'11, 180	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8159
Jalen Thompson	SS	6'0, 176	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8406

8. Another great secondary

In last year's preview, I claimed that the WSU secondary would be very good ... in 2016.

Of the nine returnees who saw the field, six were freshmen and two were sophomores. That equation probably won't work out in your favor if you're Alabama, much less Wazzu. But freshmen become sophomores, and sophomores become juniors. One can only expect so much improvement in one year, but by 2016, the WSU secondary could be fantastic. Grinch should have more than enough to field a decent secondary in 2015 and a very good one down the line.

Turns out, it was quite a bit better than decent. Despite run deficiencies, Wazzu allowed only a 124.2 passer rating, down from 158.0 the year before. An absurd 33-to-3 TD-to-INT ratio in 2014 flipped to 13-to-13 last fall, and the pass defense got better as the game wore on. (Unfortunately, opponents didn't necessarily have to pass late in games.)

This was spectaular improvement, and only one of seven regulars is gone. Free safety Shalom Luani and nickel back Parker Henry are back after combining for 9.5 tackles for loss and 12 passes defensed as juniors. Corners Darrien Molton and Marcellus Pippins are back after combining for four picks and 10 breakups. This is a relatively undersized unit -- Molton and Pippins both weigh in under 175, and only Henry tops 200 pounds.

But the Cougars are fast and fun in the back. Unless the pass rush completely falls apart, I'd be shocked if WSU fell out of the Passing S&P+ top 30 or so. If the front seven does regress, that would be a shame because it would probably prevent us from seeing exactly what this secondary is capable of.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Zach Charme	6'1, 188	So.	47	39.6	4	9	10	40.4%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Erik Powell	6'1, 195	Jr.	76	56.5	21	0	27.6%
Quentin Breshears			3	55.7	0	0	0.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Erik Powell	6'1, 195	Jr.	49-49	15-16	93.8%	5-10	50.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Tavares Martin Jr.	KR	6'1, 182	So.	25	22.1	0
Kyrin Priester	KR	6'1, 194	Jr.	6	18.8	0
Gabe Marks	PR	6'0, 188	Sr.	11	9.6	0
Kyrin Priester	PR	6'1, 194	Jr.	4	5.5	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	102
Field Goal Efficiency	56
Punt Return Success Rate	93
Kick Return Success Rate	85
Punt Success Rate	119
Kickoff Success Rate	97

9. Improvement!

Washington State's special teams unit was bad in 2015. That's good! Because "bad" isn't "worst in the nation"! The Cougars were still beyond dreadful in punt coverage (14.5 yards per return, 123rd in the country), and they allowed four more return scores (two via punt, two via kickoff). But Erik Powell was downright solid in the place-kicking department, and the return games were ... less awful? Powell needs to produce more touchbacks in kickoffs, but still, this unit had an actual strength. That's something. And basically everybody's back this year. That's something, too.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
3-Sep	Eastern Washington	NR	28.1	95%
10-Sep	at Boise State	36	-6.8	35%
17-Sep	Idaho	108	19.6	87%
1-Oct	Oregon	18	-6.5	35%
8-Oct	at Stanford	16	-13.9	21%
15-Oct	UCLA	12	-8.0	32%
22-Oct	at Arizona State	57	-2.2	45%
29-Oct	at Oregon State	86	4.3	60%
5-Nov	Arizona	64	5.8	63%
12-Nov	California	49	3.7	58%
19-Nov	at Colorado	82	3.7	58%
25-Nov	Washington	10	-8.5	31%
Projected wins: 6.2

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-9.7% (82)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	56 / 57
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	-1 / -9.2
2015 TO Luck/Game	+3.4
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	79% (87%, 71%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	7.6 (1.4)

10. Wazzu vs. expectations

I am indeed a little bit concerned about expectations this year. When you win nine games and return as much as WSU does (especially on offense), the inclincation is to set the bar awfully high. But the Cougars really weren't significantly better than they had been in the previous two years. And while they will almost certainly improve again in 2016, their record may not.

They're going to play in a ton of close games, though, and that will give them a chance. The schedule is weirdly symmetrical -- per S&P+, the Cougs have two likely wins (EWU, Idaho), one likely loss (at Stanford), four games with win probability between 31 and 35 percent, and five between 45 and 63. In all, nine games are projected to finish within 8.5 points. So if Wazzu is able to maneuver well in close games again, and if the ball bounces the Cougars' way again, there are a lot of potential wins on the table.

S&P+ doesn't think about luck, though, and it projects both a top-50 campaign and a 6-6 record. As fun as the college football world can be with Washington State making things crazy and winning a lot of games, I'm going to try to set the bar around six or seven wins as well.

Still, it's fantastic to be talking about Wazzu as a "disappointing" six-win team, isn't it? After a lost decade, Wazzu fans might actually have something to be disappointed about. That is a morbid form of growth.