The ACC's hired a ton of good coaches. How will Virginia's Bronco Mendenhall stack up?

Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year's team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year's roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

1. An intriguing experiment

Bronco Mendenhall is a very good coach, probably the second-best BYU has ever had.

It appeared this was a coaching marriage gone stale. Mendenhall didn't know what else he could do to move the program forward through independence, and at some point BYU administration was going to get tired of only beating mediocre and bad teams.

Mendenhall welcomed Virginia's advances, and BYU got a chance to start over.

-- The 2016 BYU guide

The ACC made a lot of coaching changes, and the potential upgrades were clear. Virginia Tech landed Memphis' Justin Fuente to replace Frank Beamer. Syracuse replaced Scott Shafer with Bowling Green's Dino Babers. Miami replaced Al Golden with alum and former 10-wins-a-year Georgia coach Mark Richt.

As Memphis was better than VT, BGSU was better than Syracuse, and Georgia was better than Miami last year, you could pretty clearly call these upgrades. And combined with Pitt adding Pat Narduzzi last year, it really appears the ACC has improved through strong hires.

Virginia's hire didn't feature the same level of pizzazz. It was renowned as a strong hire but didn't seem to rank as highly as Fuente or Richt.

But it may have been every bit as much of an upgrade. Over the course of Mike London's six seasons, his Cavaliers showed random promise and featured just enough star recruits to make you curious about their upside. But they never came close to putting the pieces together. They were a lucky 8-5 in 2011 and an unlucky 5-7 in 2014, but their average S&P+ ranking was 74.5, their average win total 4.5.

Whatever you consider to be Virginia's realistic expectations, Hoo fans should expect more than that. London recruited at a top-50 level but only once produced top-50 results or performed better than Mendenhall's BYU in a given year (in the unlucky 2014.) And in 2015, just as their offense began to figure some things out -- UVA ranked 54th in Off. S&P+, easily the best offensive rating of the London era -- the defense bottomed out.

Just as it may have been a good time for Mendenhall to leave Provo, it was definitely a good time for London to leave C'ville.

So now we get to find out exactly how good a coach Mendenhall is. The 50-year-old Oregon State alum dealt with unique recruiting challenges at BYU and consistently produced top-50-caliber teams. Now he deals with a different challenge: selling a program that doesn't have the history of its conference rivals.

Virginia was once the most consistently decent program -- in the 25 seasons between 1983 and 2007, the Cavaliers won at least six games 21 times but won 10 only once -- but has now bowled just twice in 10 years. They are in the right ACC division (the Clemson- and FSU-free Coastal) but have finished within two games of the division crown only once since 2008.

The bar is low, and Mendenhall is a good enough coach to clear it with room to spare. This could be a happy second marriage. At the very least, Mendenhall's record suggests he could get Virginia back to the point where fans are getting tired of seven-win seasons. Al Groh averaged seven wins per year from 2001-08, and that wasn't really getting the job done. London only hit that mark once.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 4-8 | Adj. Record: 6-6 | Final F/+ Rk: 78 | Final S&P+ Rk: 73
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
5-Sep	at UCLA	28	16-34	L	23%	0%	-3.2	+1.5
12-Sep	Notre Dame	7	27-34	L	53%	19%	+3.4	+6.0
19-Sep	William & Mary	N/A	35-29	W	55%	68%	-16.6
25-Sep	Boise State	37	14-56	L	35%	2%	-34.2	-39.0
10-Oct	at Pittsburgh	46	19-26	L	22%	1%	+4.0	+3.0
17-Oct	Syracuse	85	44-38	W	62%	60%	+2.8	-1.0
24-Oct	at North Carolina	24	13-26	L	29%	1%	+4.9	+4.5
31-Oct	Georgia Tech	64	27-21	W	76%	85%	+14.9	+12.0
7-Nov	at Miami-FL	62	21-27	L	35%	8%	+7.6	-6.0
14-Nov	at Louisville	39	31-38	L	46%	15%	+12.4	+6.5
21-Nov	Duke	74	42-34	W	91%	97%	+15.7	+5.5
28-Nov	Virginia Tech	59	20-23	L	57%	40%	+0.8	+0.5

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	30.7	54	31.1	86
Points Per Game	25.8	89	32.2	96

2. Consistency? What's that?

If you drew a trendline with Virginia's percentile chart above, it would be moving slightly up.

• UVA's first 5 games:
  Record: 1-4 | Average percentile performance: 38% (~top 80) | Yards per play: Opp 6.3, UVA 5.5 (-0.8)
• UVA's next 4 games:
  Record: 2-2 | Average percentile performance: 51% (~top 65) | Yards per play: Opp 6.3, UVA 5.3 (-1.0)
• UVA's last 3 games:
  Record: 1-2 | Average percentile performance: 65% (~top 45) | Yards per play: Opp 6.0, UVA 5.8 (-0.2)

That is what you hope to see from a team that is scheduled to return its quarterback, two versatile running backs, most of its offensive line two-deep, and most of its linebackers and defensive backs. Virginia wasn't the youngest team in FBS, but it was young, and based on averages, it seemed to settle in at a top-50 level by the end of the year.

There were two main problems.

First, though they were playing better, they couldn't seal the deal. That was the case from start to finish. In the second game, against an excellent Notre Dame, they gave up a long, late pass to turn a 27-26 lead into a 34-27 defeat. They lost by seven at Pitt, by six at Miami, by seven at Louisville, and by three at Virginia Tech. They were just decent enough to lose tight games.

Second, they could never pull off good performances back to back. They hit the 62nd percentile in a win over Syracuse, then fell to the 29th against UNC. They surged to the 76th against Georgia Tech, then the 35th against Miami. Et cetera. They probably shouldn't have been as close as they were in some of those close losses, and the offense wasn't good enough to overcome the defense's sudden deficiencies.

UVA becomes a Mendenhall team. That likely means a fast-paced offense and an angry, sometimes too angry, 3-4 defense. If he can install some consistency in 2016, that will be a nice first step.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.27	64	IsoPPP+	100.2	64
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	40.8%	76	Succ. Rt. +	101.0	68
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	32.1	113	Def. FP+	29.5	63
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.7	48	Redzone S&P+	107.8	45
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	19.7		ACTUAL	24	+4.3

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	75	70	68	64
RUSHING	100	100	99	89
PASSING	51	52	36	61
Standard Downs		74	68	77
Passing Downs		58	63	53

Q1 Rk	60	1st Down Rk	82
Q2 Rk	60	2nd Down Rk	85
Q3 Rk	87	3rd Down Rk	74
Q4 Rk	86

3. A Robert Anae offense, starring Matt Johns

As BYU's offensive coordinator from 2005-10 and 2013-15, Robert Anae produced an average Off. S&P+ ranking of 35.9. Without him in 2011-12, BYU averaged 68.5. A career line coach before his 2005 promotion, Anae tries to focus on tempo and physical play.

He allows the talent on hand to dictate everything else. When he had a dual-threat talent like Taysom Hill, his offense was heavy on read options; Hill threw for 2,938 yards and rushed for 1,344 in 2013. When a passer like Tanner Mangum or Max Hall was in charge, he turned to the passing game; Hall threw for nearly 4,000 yards in 2008, and Mangum, a freshman, threw for nearly 3,400 last year.

While Johns did rush three or four times per game, he far more resembles Hall and Mangum than he does Hill. He showed serious efficiency potential in 2015, completing at least 60 percent of his passes in eight of 12 games. But in his first full year as a starter, he struggled to pull out of a skid. When things went poorly, they went REALLY poorly.

• Johns against Boise State, North Carolina, and Virginia Tech: 47-for-93 (51 percent), 518 yards, 3 TD, 9 INT, 88.6 passer rating.
• Johns against everybody else: 200-for-310 (65 percent), 2,292 yards, 17 TD, 8 INT, 139.6 passer rating.

A 139.6 passer rating isn't amazing, but it will do. 88.6 will not.

Assuming Johns holds off Connor Brewer and ECU transfer Kurt Benkert, his job will be to get the ball into the hands of two unique backfield threats -- Taquan Mizzell and Olamide Zaccheaus, who combined for 197 carries and 96 catches last year -- and more steadily guide an offense that wants to wear a defense down with tempo and lots of snaps. You can't take lots of snaps if you're throwing picks.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Matt Johns	6'5, 210	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8562	247	403	2810	20	17	61.3%	19	4.5%	6.4
Connor Brewer	6'2, 215	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9267	4	8	34	0	1	50.0%	1	11.1%	3.4
Kurt Benkert (ECU)	6'3, 225	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8364
Sonny Abramson	6'2, 208	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8493
Devante Cross	6'2, 180	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8046

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Taquan Mizzell	TB	5'10, 195	Sr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9721	164	664	4	4.0	4.1	32.9%	5	3
Albert Reid	TB	5'9, 210	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8667	66	360	3	5.5	9.9	28.8%	0	0
Daniel Hamm	TB	5'10, 200	Jr.	NR	NR	56	249	1	4.4	4.5	30.4%	0	0
Matt Johns	QB	6'5, 210	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8562	42	213	1	5.1	3.0	47.6%	6	2
Olamide Zaccheaus	TB/WR	5'8, 190	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8529	33	262	1	7.9	6.3	60.6%	1	1
Jordan Ellis	TB	5'11, 205	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8442	24	74	2	3.1	9.0	16.7%	0	0
T.J. Thorpe	WR					5	28	1	5.6	10.3	40.0%	0	0

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Taquan Mizzell	TB	5'10, 195	Sr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9721	99	75	719	75.8%	25.6%	7.3	59.6%	47.5%	1.38
Canaan Severin	WR-X					74	54	761	73.0%	19.1%	10.3	37.8%	58.1%	1.70
T.J. Thorpe	WR-F					55	23	321	41.8%	14.2%	5.8	56.4%	32.7%	1.53
Olamide Zaccheaus	TB/WR	5'8, 190	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8529	33	21	216	63.6%	8.5%	6.5	66.7%	39.4%	1.49
Evan Butts	TE	6'4, 240	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8432	23	16	182	69.6%	5.9%	7.9	65.2%	65.2%	1.05
Keeon Johnson	WR-Z	6'3, 210	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8544	22	13	173	59.1%	5.7%	7.9	63.6%	50.0%	1.45
Charlie Hopkins	TE					22	11	90	50.0%	5.7%	4.1	59.1%	40.9%	0.88
Daniel Hamm	TB	5'10, 200	Jr.	NR	NR	18	14	174	77.8%	4.7%	9.7	44.4%	50.0%	1.75
Albert Reid	TB	5'9, 210	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8667	18	12	47	66.7%	4.7%	2.6	66.7%	22.2%	1.00
Doni Dowling	WR-F	6'1, 215	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8100	6	1	-1	16.7%	1.6%	-0.2	16.7%	0.0%	0.00
Andre Levrone	WR	6'3, 215	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8568	5	2	16	40.0%	1.3%	3.2	80.0%	40.0%	0.72
David Eldridge	WR-Z	6'1, 170	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8544	2	2	88	100.0%	0.5%	44.0	100.0%	100.0%	3.78
Brendan Marshall	TE	6'5, 245	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8453
Tanner Cowley	WR	6'4, 225	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8320
Joe Reed	WR	6'1, 198	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8575
Hasise Dubois	WR	6'3, 195	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8550
Cole Blackman	WR	6'1, 193	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8529
Aidan Howard	WR	6'4, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8355

4. Got any actual receivers?

Mizzell has been an athlete posing as a running back. The former blue-chipper wasn't nearly as effective as his backups last year, averaging 4.1 yards per carry to their 5.6, but his versatility became a significant threat. He led the Hoos with 75 catches, and when you combine carries and targets, he averaged 21.9 intended touches per game for 115.3 yards. That's not bad.

Zaccheaus did a pretty solid Mizzell impression as a freshman. He had 66 intended touches -- 33 carries, 33 targets -- and gained a combined 478 yards.

Neither are big backs, but Mizzell and Zaccheaus could serve as pretty strong muses for Anae; they can line up in the backfield and motion out wide, and they are decent threats in either place. Plus, Anae has all-or-nothing back Albert Reid and sophomore Evan Butts to play with.

These are all pretty interesting pieces, but none are wideouts. UVA had only two wideouts targeted more than 22 times last year, and both are gone. T.J. Thorpe's production out of the slot was replaceable, but Canaan Severin had a nice year, catching 54 passes and averaging 10.3 yards per target. On a per-target basis, senior Keeon Johnson was reasonably effective, but he's the only returning WR who caught more than two passes.

Johns was decent on passing downs last year, and a lot of that had to do with Mizzell, an excellent checkdown option on second-and-long. But there will be plenty of times this year when a checkdown option is suboptimal. Will Johnson be able to carry more of a load? Will junior Doni Dowling figure out how to parlay a strong spring into a strong fall? Will sophomore David Eldridge, a speedy former mid-three-star recruit, do more than flash upside?

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	97.1	2.8	2.92	35.4%	62.1%	22.0%	118.4	4.6%	6.0%
Rank	85	75	99	105	90	96	41	59	38

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Eric Smith	RT	6'5, 300	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8219	12	32
Ross Burbank	LG					12	27
Jay Whitmire	RG					8	21
Jackson Matteo	C	6'5, 290	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8005	12	15
Michael Mooney	LT	6'6, 290	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8479	5	14
Jack English	LT	6'5, 300	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8059	7	7
Sean Karl	LG	6'6, 310	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8465	2	2
Jack McDonald	RG	6'5, 290	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8519	2	2
Sadiq Olanrewaju	LT	6'6, 300	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8568	0	2
Rob Burns	LT					0	0
Eric Tetlow	C	6'6, 305	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8253	0	0
Steven Moss	OG	6'4, 300	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9157	0	0
Jared Cohen (UNC)	OG	6'3, 310	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8771	0	0
Jake Fieler	OT	6'5, 295	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8800	0	0
Ben Knutson	OT	6'8, 280	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8400

5. Lanky and experienced

At BYU, offensive line coach Garett Tujague was used to working with road graders up front; BYU's top eight returning linemen this year average 6'4, 313.

From a recruiting perspective, Tujague inherits a more talented line in Charlottesville, but it's lankier; the top nine returnees average 6'6, 298.

That's probably fine, considering the likely pass-first nature. UVA was pretty good in pass protection last year and poor in run blocking, and at first glance, it's not hard to assume that will continue in 2016. UVA's line will be a mix of low-three-star upperclassmen (seven of whom have starting experience) and four- or high-three-star youngsters. UNC transfer Jared Cohen gives the Cavaliers another high-upside piece.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.32	96	IsoPPP+	94.2	90
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	44.2%	93	Succ. Rt. +	99.9	68
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	26.7	122	Off. FP+	29.3	85
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.4	68	Redzone S&P+	99.4	75
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	20.8		ACTUAL	15.0	-5.8

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	79	83	68	90
RUSHING	50	70	71	64
PASSING	97	87	67	99
Standard Downs		68	58	78
Passing Downs		92	83	90

Q1 Rk	64	1st Down Rk	83
Q2 Rk	80	2nd Down Rk	89
Q3 Rk	71	3rd Down Rk	75
Q4 Rk	75

6. A good, old-fashioned 3-4

At their best, Mendenhall's BYU defenses combined beef and tenacity up front with speed on the edges and physical play-makers in the secondary. The Cougars were able to invade the backfield without sending six defenders, and they were happy to get physical.

After dominating with linebacker Kyle Van Noy in 2012 (sixth in Def. S&P+) and 2013 (13th), the Cougars had only a decent defense in 2014 (49th) and 2015 (34th). Talent matters, and Mendenhall didn't quite have the right mix recently.

Mendenhall brought coordinator Nick Howell to Charlottesville, so we know what attempted identity we can expect to see. Mendenhall wants to attack the run on standard downs and the pass on passing downs, and his units tend to play well in the redzone.

In 2016, the UVA defense's success will depend on two things: how well the line reloads and how well the secondary rebounds. The former is replacing last year's top three and is moving from four down linemen to three. The latter was supposed to be a strength last year but couldn't keep anybody healthy and bombed.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	104.4	2.88	3.56	41.3%	69.0%	24.0%	89.9	4.5%	6.9%
Rank	45	67	100	99	90	15	82	85	76

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
David Dean	NT					12	34.5	5.6%	8.0	3.5	0	3	1	0
Trent Corney	DE					12	27.5	4.5%	9.0	2.0	0	0	1	0
Kwontie Moore	DE					12	22.5	3.7%	6.0	2.0	0	0	2	1
Mark Hall	DE	6'2, 245	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8557	6	10.0	1.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Donte Wilkins	NT	6'1, 290	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8542	12	8.5	1.4%	1.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Andrew Brown	DE	6'4, 280	Jr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9941	10	4.5	0.7%	2.5	1.0	0	2	0	0
Andre Miles-Redmond	DE	6'4, 280	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8650	8	3.5	0.6%	1.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jack Powers (Arizona State)	DE	6'6, 290	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8349
James Trucilla	NT	6'1, 270	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8417
Steven Wright	DE	6'4, 235	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8346
Christian Brooks	DE	6'5, 240	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8113
Christian Baumgardner	DE	6'4, 230	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8071

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Micah Kiser	ILB	6'2, 240	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8778	12	90.5	14.7%	13.0	7.5	0	2	3	1
Zach Bradshaw	ILB	6'3, 235	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8532	10	38.5	6.3%	3.5	1.5	0	0	1	0
Mike Moore	OLB					12	34.0	5.5%	12.5	7.0	0	3	3	0
Chris Peace	OLB	6'1, 240	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7000	12	9.5	1.5%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Malcolm Cook	OLB	6'1, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8727	3	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
C.J. Stalker	OLB	6'2, 225	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8690	2	1.5	0.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Cory Jones	OLB	6'5, 215	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8159
Jahvoni Simmons	ILB	6'1, 240	RSFr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9310
Dominic Sheppard	ILB	6'2, 240	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8575
Gladimir Paul	OLB	6'2, 210	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8120
Juwan Moye	OLB	6'3, 235	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8391
Landan Word	ILB	6'3, 245	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8305
Matt Terrell	OLB	6'4, 227	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8016

7. Compatibility check:

The shift from a 4-3 to a 3-4 can be awkward. Your light defensive ends shift to outside linebacker, your light defensive tackles might shift to defensive end, you might not have the mammoth presence at nose tackle. You might not have the speed/size combination you need at OLB.

On a scale of 1-10, I would rate Virginia's 3-4 readiness around a 5. Former blue-chipper Andrew Brown could be custom-made for life as a 3-4 end, and the linebacker duo of Micah Kiser and Zach Bradshaw should do just fine (or better than fine) from the ILB posts.

But there's almost no proven disruptive ability on the edges at linebacker, and no lineman is listed at higher than 290 pounds. If former star recruits like Brown and linebackers C.J. Stalker and Jahvoni Simmons can begin playing up to their perceived potential, UVA might have enough athleticism to get by up front. Otherwise it might take a couple of years of recruiting and development to get this unit where Mendenhall wants it.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Quin Blanding	SS	6'2, 205	Jr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9966	12	91.5	14.9%	1	0	1	3	1	0
Kelvin Rainey	FS	6'1, 195	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8506	12	55.0	8.9%	3	0	0	3	0	0
Maurice Canady	CB					11	34.5	5.6%	3	0	0	6	1	0
Tim Harris	CB	6'2, 200	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9150	10	30.0	4.9%	3	0	1	6	0	0
Demetrious Nicholson	CB					7	29.5	4.8%	2.5	0	0	4	1	0
Wilfred Wahee	SS	5'10, 200	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8055	10	29.5	4.8%	1	0	0	4	0	2
Darious Latimore	CB	6'0, 165	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8457	7	13.0	2.1%	0	0	2	4	1	0
Mason Thomas	SS					5	3.5	0.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Divante Walker	CB					2	2.5	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Juan Thornhill	CB	6'1, 200	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8587	3	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Kirk Garner	FS	5'11, 180	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8761	12	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Chris Sharp	S	6'2, 195	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8286
Jordan Mack	DB	6'3, 205	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8537
Deedrick Daniels	DB	6'0, 168	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8219
Nick Grant	DB	6'1, 170	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8199

8. Step 1: Find cornerbacks. Step 2: Keep them on the field.

I expected this secondary to be one of the ACC's best last year, and maybe it would have been with better health and more help from a below-average pass rush. Alas, it got neither of those things.

The Cavaliers ranked just 82nd in Adj. Sack Rate -- Kiser and since-departed linebacker Mike Moore had 14.5 sacks, and the rest of the team had just 11.5 -- and only two defensive backs were able to stay on the field. Eleven DBs averaged at least half a tackle per game, and nine missed time.

Heading into 2016, safety appears well-set with Quin Blanding, Kelvin Rainey, Wilfred Wahee, and Kirk Garner.

Cornerback is a mystery. Of last year's top five corners, only two are back, and they missed a combined seven games. Tim Harris has flashed upside for a couple of years, and Darious Latimore was active as a freshman -- he had six passes defensed to only 13 tackles, which means he either missed a ton of tackles or made as many plays as he allowed. In theory, if the projected starting four of Blanding, Rainey, Harris, and Latimore is able to stay on the field, UVA could have what it needs. But especially after last year, that's quite an "if."

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Nicholas Conte	6'3, 225	Sr.	52	44.7	5	11	10	40.4%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Dylan Sims	6'0, 190	Sr.	60	63.3	30	1	50.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Ian Frye			34-35	11-12	91.7%	6-10	60.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Olamide Zaccheaus	KR	5'8, 190	So.	28	19.3	0
Taquan Mizzell	KR	5'10, 195	Sr.	7	13.7	0
Maurice Canady	PR			5	25.2	1
Olamide Zaccheaus	PR	5'8, 190	So.	5	6.8	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	48
Field Goal Efficiency	47
Punt Return Success Rate	97
Kick Return Success Rate	120
Punt Success Rate	44
Kickoff Success Rate	34

9. Nice legs

UVA got almost nothing from its return game in 2015. Maurice Canady had a 74-yard punt return against William & Mary, and that was about it from either kick or punt returns. But the Cavaliers still had a top-50 special teams unit becaus eof its legs. Ian Frye was a strong place-kicker, Nicholas Conte averaged nearly 45 yards per punt, and Dylan Sims knocked half of his kickoffs into the end zone for touchbacks.

Conte and Sims should assure that this unit has at least a couple of strengths, and goodness knows that Zaccheaus and Mizzell have the athletic potential to develop into good return men. (Mizzell averaged a decent 23.1 yards per kick return in 2014.)

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
3-Sep	Richmond	NR	20.0	88%
10-Sep	at Oregon	18	-16.6	17%
17-Sep	at Connecticut	81	0.4	51%
24-Sep	Central Michigan	85	8.0	68%
1-Oct	at Duke	51	-6.2	36%
15-Oct	Pittsburgh	29	-4.9	39%
22-Oct	North Carolina	27	-5.9	37%
29-Oct	Louisville	20	-9.0	30%
5-Nov	at Wake Forest	74	-2.2	45%
12-Nov	Miami	30	-4.7	39%
19-Nov	at Georgia Tech	54	-6.1	36%
26-Nov	at Virginia Tech	32	-10.9	26%
Projected wins: 5.1

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-4.8% (71)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	62 / 48
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	-9 / 1.2
2015 TO Luck/Game	-4.2
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	72% (80%, 64%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	4.0 (0.0)

10. Do the Hoos have a surprise in them?

Sometimes the win probabilities can create a pretty strong dividing line. Projected 68th in S&P+, Virginia is given between a 36 and 51 percent chance of winning in seven of 12 games, with likely wins against Richmond and CMU and likely losses against Oregon, Louisville, and Virginia Tech.

That sets a pretty clear path for 2016. Of those seven games in which the Cavaliers are either slight underdogs or the tiniest of favorites -- at UConn, at Duke, Pitt, North Carolina, at Wake Forest, Miami, at Georgia Tech -- UVA has to win four to reach bowl eligibility. That probably won't happen. But a win at UConn in particular would likely create a 3-1 start and a little bit of early buzz.

Mendenhall was by any account a solid hire. He has 99 wins to his name, he produces a lot of academic All-Americans (which will play well at UVA). At a school without power-program status, he produced teams that were usually stronger than their UVA counterparts.

But the ACC has made a lot of strong hires. It will be interesting to see how much of a niche Mendenhall can carve out in an increasingly competitive conference. After the challenge of ushering BYU into independent life, he seems excited about starting over.