Expect Syracuse to drastically improve, even if this schedule makes it hard to notice

Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year's team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year's roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

1. How quickly can you take flight?

Over the final seven games of 2012, Syracuse quarterback Ryan Nassib's passer rating soared to 150.2. He was suddenly completing intermediate passes all over the field, throwing two touchdowns per game, and making almost no mistakes. After averaging 22.8 points per game through six contests, Doug Marrone's Orange averaged 36.1.

This was the prototypical "...and then suddenly, the light bulb went on" story that we see just enough to convince us it's possible. It was also just about the only time in the last decade-plus that Syracuse has been good at moving the football. In 11 years of S&P+ data, 2012 is the only time the Orange have ranked in the Off. S&P+ top 50 (32nd), and it was based on half a season of quality.

You can understand the draw of Dino Babers, then. Yards are good. Points are good. Babers ends up with a lot of them.

Marrone sold high following that 2012 season, ending up as head coach of the Buffalo Bills. He was replaced by defensive coordinator Scott Shafer, who had a good defense for two of his three years in charge but couldn't get things fired out on the other side.

A former Hawaii running back, Babers held offensive assistant jobs in basically every time zone over 30 years and spent four years observing Art Briles' offense up close. He finally got a head coaching gig in 2012 at Eastern Illinois, and he soared. Eastern Illinois had gone 4-17-1 over the previous two seasons, then went 7-5 and 12-2. The Panthers scored at least 37 points six times in his first year and 13 in his second.

Babers moved on to Bowling Green, lost his starting quarterback immediately, and scuffled through a slightly lucky 8-6 campaign. But with the pieces in place in 2015, his Falcons went 10-4, ranked 11th in Off. S&P+, threw for 5,135 yards, and scored nearly 600 points.

Give Babers a little time, and he's going to move the football. A lot. Northern New York is not the best place to find receiving talent, but he'll find what he needs. And under the right circumstances, he might even make some stops, too. He found a good defensive coordinator in Brian Ward last year at BGSU -- the Falcons improved from 106th in Def. S&P+ to 55th -- and took Ward with him.

Babers is making up for lost time. He didn't get his first head coaching job until he was 50, and now he's on his third gig in five years. He's won 37 games, and he hasn't yet had a roster of his own making.

Of all this offseason's hires, this feels like one of the safest. Babers will score points, and he will probably get Syracuse back into bowl conversation after a two-year drought.

There are drawbacks. We don't know how long he will stay if he succeeds. (That the AD who hired him just left doesn't dissuade those thoughts.) And if he does stay for a while, we don't actually know how he might do at program maintenance.

But forget all of that. He's on the job in 2016, and he's probably going to do well. In terms of returning production, he inherits one of the most experienced rosters in FBS. The schedule is rugged -- eight opponents projected 41st or better in S&P+, three projected 11th or better -- and that will probably tamp down the year's upside.

But Syracuse is going to be a tougher out, and for better or sometimes worse, the Carrier Dome scoreboard operator will be busier than in years.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 4-8 | Adj. Record: 6-6 | Final F/+ Rk: 85 | Final S&P+ Rk: 71
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
4-Sep	Rhode Island	N/A	47-0	W	94%	100%	+31.4
12-Sep	Wake Forest	92	30-17	W	60%	75%	+7.6	+8.0
19-Sep	Central Michigan	67	30-27	W	86%	95%	-4.1	-4.0
26-Sep	LSU	10	24-34	L	40%	10%	+7.4	+15.0
10-Oct	at South Florida	44	24-45	L	16%	0%	-31.0	-18.5
17-Oct	at Virginia	78	38-44	L	44%	40%	-2.8	+1.0
24-Oct	Pittsburgh	46	20-23	L	62%	56%	+1.7	+4.0
31-Oct	at Florida State	12	21-45	L	24%	0%	-3.8	-3.5
7-Nov	at Louisville	39	17-41	L	11%	0%	-9.5	-9.5
14-Nov	Clemson	2	27-37	L	61%	24%	+19.0	+18.0
21-Nov	at NC State	49	29-42	L	58%	39%	+5.0	+4.0
28-Nov	Boston College	70	20-17	W	41%	17%	+3.5	+6.0

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	28.8	67	28.6	69
Points Per Game	27.3	77	31.0	90

2. Fall, rally, fall, rally

It looked as if Shafer might steer out of his skid in 2015. Despite youth and turnover at quarterback, Syracuse began by scoring at least 30 points in three straight games and giving a strong accounting in a 34-24 loss to LSU.

From that point, the season was defined by stumbles, slight rebounds, and losses.

• Syracuse's first 4 games:
  Record: 3-1 | Average percentile performance: 70% (~top 40) | Yards per play: SU 5.7, Opp 5.4 (+0.3)
• Syracuse's last 8 games:
  Record: 1-7 | Average percentile performance: 40% (~top 75) | Yards per play: Opp 6.6, SU 4.8 (-1.8)

Close losses to Pitt and Clemson were offset by dismal games against USF and Louisville. An interesting team at home, the Orange were mostly nightmarish on the road.

Shafer was fired after a 42-29 loss to NC State, the team's eighth in a row. The Orange rallied to stave off Boston College in the season finale, then it was time for the new generation.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.28	56	IsoPPP+	99.9	68
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	38.2%	103	Succ. Rt. +	108.0	34
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	29.5	61	Def. FP+	29.9	74
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.6	51	Redzone S&P+	104.0	58
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	17.1		ACTUAL	18	+0.9

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	119	64	34	68
RUSHING	77	41	23	48
PASSING	117	78	64	75
Standard Downs		33	27	32
Passing Downs		111	80	115

Q1 Rk	56	1st Down Rk	73
Q2 Rk	78	2nd Down Rk	7
Q3 Rk	52	3rd Down Rk	125
Q4 Rk	78

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Eric Dungey	6'3, 212	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8434	105	176	1298	11	5	59.7%	10	5.4%	6.4
Zack Mahoney	6'2, 201	Jr.	NR	NR	54	117	535	7	2	46.2%	7	5.6%	4.0
Austin Wilson	6'3, 225	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7984	4	8	49	1	1	50.0%
Rex Culpepper	6'2, 220	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8469

3. 176 passes by the end of September

Last year, Syracuse was a run-first, run-second team, running more than two-thirds of the time on standard downs and more than the national average on passing downs. The Orange operated at one of the country's slowest tempos.

Granted, the Orange were in the process of spreading things out; this was a run-first offense, but there weren't 38 fullbacks on the roster. Still, the change will be stark.

Eric Dungey was the first-string quarterback at the end of spring practice, just as he was the first-stringer for much of last season. He was one of 15 true freshmen to play for the Orange last year, and his potential was obvious. Three games into the season, he had completed 21 of 36 passes for 428 yards, five touchdowns, and no interceptions. Against Virginia, he completed 16 of 22 with two scores and no picks. He also kept his sack rate down reasonably well for a mobile quarterback and averaged 5.7 yards per non-sack carry.

Dungey showed strong efficiency potential but missed the last three games with a head injury. His replacement, Zack Mahoney, was equally decent running the ball but was a bit of a mess passing. He threw only two interceptions, but not many of his passes landed in HIS players' hands either. Dungey's the hope.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Jordan Fredericks	RB	5'10, 215	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8281	110	615	4	5.6	7.8	33.6%	1	0
Eric Dungey	QB	6'3, 212	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8434	81	462	5	5.7	5.1	49.4%	8	5
George Morris	RB	6'0, 187	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8577	66	326	0	4.9	4.8	42.4%	1	0
Ervin Philips	RB/IR	5'11, 180	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8211	41	234	3	5.7	4.7	48.8%	1	1
Devante McFarlane	RB					35	102	0	2.9	1.7	28.6%	0	0
Zack Mahoney	QB	6'2, 201	Jr.	NR	NR	34	187	2	5.5	5.7	47.1%	4	2
Dontae Strickland	RB	5'11, 196	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8731	21	81	1	3.9	5.4	33.3%	0	0
Jacob Hill	WR	5'6, 170	So.	NR	NR	18	68	0	3.8	2.7	33.3%	0	0
Brisly Estime	WR	5'9, 182	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8153	6	17	0	2.8	3.2	33.3%	1	0
Ben Lewis	HB					5	12	0	2.4	10.9	20.0%	0	0
Moe Neal	RB	5'10, 167	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8615
Jo-El Shaw	RB	6'1, 215	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8375
Sean Riley	RB	5'9, 165	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8356

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Steve Ishmael	WR	6'2, 202	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8578	61	39	570	63.9%	21.3%	9.3	57.4%	59.0%	1.45
Ervin Philips	IR	5'11, 180	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8211	50	29	286	58.0%	17.4%	5.7	54.0%	36.0%	1.50
Brisly Estime	IR	5'9, 182	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8153	41	17	293	41.5%	14.3%	7.1	63.4%	34.1%	1.97
Josh Parris	TE	6'4, 242	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8323	32	21	140	65.6%	11.1%	4.4	31.3%	31.2%	1.28
Ben Lewis	TE					28	18	208	64.3%	9.8%	7.4	57.1%	50.0%	1.31
Dontae Strickland	RB	5'11, 196	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8731	19	9	137	47.4%	6.6%	7.2	52.6%	36.8%	2.03
Alvin Cornelius	WR	6'1, 187	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8111	14	6	56	42.9%	4.9%	4.0	42.9%	28.6%	1.35
Jordan Fredericks	RB	5'10, 215	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8281	9	6	55	66.7%	3.1%	6.1	88.9%	44.4%	1.39
Kendall Moore	TE	6'5, 241	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8503	6	3	39	50.0%	2.1%	6.5	50.0%	33.3%	1.75
Devante McFarlane	RB					6	2	27	33.3%	2.1%	4.5	50.0%	16.7%	2.82
George Morris	RB	6'0, 187	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8577	6	5	17	83.3%	2.1%	2.8	16.7%	33.3%	0.71
Sean Avant	IR	5'10, 207	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8099	4	4	37	100.0%	1.4%	9.3	75.0%	100.0%	0.76
Jamal Custis	WR	6'5, 226	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8473	4	1	7	25.0%	1.4%	1.8	50.0%	25.0%	0.88
Jacob Hill	IR	5'6, 170	So.	NR	NR	2	0	0	0.0%	0.7%	0.0	100.0%	0.0%	0.00
Clay Austin	IR	5'9, 164	Jr.	NR	NR
Adly Enoicy	WR	6'5, 222	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8537
Tyrone Perkins	WR	6'0, 198	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8452
Tyler Gilfus	WR	6'1, 195	Fr.	NR	NR

4. Draft Steve Ishmael for your College Fantasy Football team

Syracuse ran a safe system last season, built around protecting young QBs who are better at running than throwing. It probably isn't a surprise that the Orange were good on standard downs (33rd), when both run and play-action are possible, and abysmal on passing downs (111th), when you're forced to become one-dimensional. Syracuse ranked 125th in the country on third downs, combining passing-downs struggles with iffy short-yardage play.

Short-yardage issues might not improve, but I doubt passing downs are as much of an issue, as long as Dungey is healthy. This system is pretty friendly to passing-downs conversions, and Syracuse returns eight of last year's top nine receivers. That's a pretty healthy combination.

Steve Ishmael had to feel he won the lottery when Babers' hire was announced. He averaged 10.4 yards per target as the No. 3 option in the 2014 offense, then a still-strong 9.3 per target as Syracuse's top option last year. He has caught 66 passes for 985 yards and 10 touchdowns in two solid years. If healthy, he will almost certainly top those marks in 2016.

Syracuse's success could be dictated by how many OTHER options emerge. From a size-and-speed perspective, Ervin Phillips and Brisly Estime seem like custom-made inside receivers, and sophomore running back Dontae Strickland led running backs in targets, catches, and yards. (He had a 62-yard reception against FSU.) Strickland finished the spring as the No. 1 running back and could be used in a lot of different ways.

Still, Phillips and Estime combined to average just 6.4 yards per target with a 35 percent success rate, and while Strickland was exciting in the passing game, he averaged just 3.9 yards per carry. This trio could be the primary efficiency options in this system, and they weren't efficient last year.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	107.5	2.66	2.96	40.2%	63.6%	23.1%	107.6	4.3%	9.8%
Rank	38	104	90	48	80	107	49	52	104

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Rob Trudo	RG					11	44
Ivan Foy	LT					12	35
Nick Robinson	LG					12	33
Omari Palmer	RG	6'3, 321	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7726	12	21
Jason Emerich	C	6'3, 284	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8487	10	12
Seamus Shanley	RG					3	3
Michael Lasker	LT	6'5, 318	Sr.	NR	NR	0	1
Cody Conway	LT	6'6, 295	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8407	0	0
Aaron Roberts	LG	6'4, 300	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8153	0	0
Taylor Hindy	C	6'4, 318	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	0	0
Jamar McGloster	RT	6'7, 330	Jr.	NR	NR	0	0
Jon Burton	OT	6'8, 319	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7926	0	0
Andrejas Duerig	LG	6'3, 320	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8377
Samuel Clausman	LG	6'3, 324	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8226
Evan Adams	RT	6'6, 334	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8123
Colin Byrne	RG	6'5, 321	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8032
Sam Heckel	OL	6'5, 265	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8534
Michael Clark	OL	6'7, 277	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8534

5. Starting over up front

Now's probably not the worst time to be starting over on the offensive line. The line was a strength for the last couple of years and must now replace four players who combined for 38 of last year's 60 starts and 115 career starts.

But this system diminishes the offensive line's job to a certain degree. Passes come out of the QB's hand quickly, minimizing sack rates, and the combination of large splits and a defense distracted by the passing game should open up some holes for the ground game unless the line is simply dreadful. It probably won't be.

Three seniors with starting experience return, and the combination of guard Omari Palmer and center Jason Emerich could form a decent team in short-yardage situations.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.23	56	IsoPPP+	92.7	92
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	46.8%	114	Succ. Rt. +	85.8	118
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	31.9	29	Off. FP+	31.4	33
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.5	77	Redzone S&P+	98.7	77
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	18.6		ACTUAL	23.0	+4.4

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	99	100	118	92
RUSHING	78	90	114	71
PASSING	101	111	111	105
Standard Downs		109	125	86
Passing Downs		95	72	99

Q1 Rk	105	1st Down Rk	111
Q2 Rk	87	2nd Down Rk	93
Q3 Rk	77	3rd Down Rk	95
Q4 Rk	112

6. Passive vs. too passive

The only things that kept Syracuse's overall Def. S&P+ rating from completely falling apart were field position and redzone performance. As field position is partially a product of special teams (I'm still working on the cleanest ways to separate special teams from offense and defense in the unit ratings), you could say that the defense itself probably should have ranked lower than 69th. And 69th was already the 'Cuse's worst Def. S&P+ ranking since Greg Robinson's last year in charge (2009).

The main problem was that the play-makers were gone. The Orange had to replace four of their top five linemen from 2014 and three of five linebackers, and despite the work of end Ron Thompson, linebacker Zaire Franklin, and freshman tackle Chris Slayton, the new front just didn't create enough disruption, particularly in the pass rush. Meanwhile, the secondary had to replace its top four as well.

The collapse was comprehensive. Syracuse fell from 76th to 111th in Passing S&P+, and from 26th all the way to 90th in Rushing S&P+. On standard downs, the Orange fell from 30th to 109th. Shafer had previously been able to balance between havoc and bend-don't-break tendencies. In 2015, Syracuse bent far too much and didn't prevent big plays well enough (or make enough passing downs stops) to get away with it.

Youth explains a portion of that. The linebackers were all sophomores and juniors, the defensive backs were freshmen and sophomores, and the line was a mix of seniors and freshmen. So Brian Ward inherits more seasoned pieces.

Ward's BGSU defense overplayed pretty well -- the Falcons attacked the run on standard downs and the pass on passing downs, forcing opponents to stray from the normal script. This worked well on standard downs (BGSU was 36th in SD S&P+), but the Falcons didn't have the pass rushers to close things out on passing downs. Does Syracuse?

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	98.7	2.81	3.80	43.0%	66.7%	22.0%	86.9	4.8%	7.3%
Rank	71	53	121	117	69	40	86	73	66

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Ron Thompson	DE					12	32.5	4.9%	9.5	7.0	0	4	4	0
Donnie Simmons	DE					12	30.0	4.6%	5.0	1.0	1	1	2	0
Chris Slayton	DT	6'4, 297	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8619	12	18.0	2.7%	6.0	1.0	0	1	1	0
John Raymon	DT					12	17.0	2.6%	3.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Steven Clark	NT	6'2, 311	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8157	12	16.5	2.5%	1.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
Luke Arciniega	DE					8	15.0	2.3%	5.5	4.0	0	0	1	0
Kayton Samuels	NT	6'0, 318	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7983	12	11.5	1.7%	2.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Rony Charles	DE					3	4.0	0.6%	2.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Anthony Giudice	DT	6'1, 276	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8052	8	2.0	0.3%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Hernz Laguerre	DE	6'1, 234	Sr.	NR	NR
Trey Dunkelberger	DE	6'5, 230	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8013
Jake Pickard	DE	6'5, 254	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8352
Tyler Cross	DT	6'2, 285	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8277
Kenneth Ruff	DE	6'1, 258	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8471
Jaquwan Nelson	DE	6'4, 230	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8534
Kendall Coleman	DE	6'3, 235	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8189

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Zaire Franklin	MLB	6'0, 229	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8550	12	70.0	10.6%	11.0	3.0	1	1	2	0
Parris Bennett	WLB	6'0, 218	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8308	8	38.0	5.8%	3.5	0.0	1	0	0	0
Marqez Hodge	WLB	5'11, 226	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8214	12	32.0	4.9%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jonathan Thomas	SLB	6'1, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8596	12	29.5	4.5%	1.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Ted Taylor	SLB	6'1, 212	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8100	12	25.0	3.8%	5.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Oliver Vigille	MLB					10	4.5	0.7%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	1
Kyle Kleinberg	MLB	6'0, 216	So.	NR	NR	12	3.0	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Alryk Perry	WLB	6'1, 213	Jr.	NR	NR
Troy Henderson	MLB	5'11, 218	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8407
Shyheim Cullen	WLB	6'0, 206	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8048
Tim Walton	LB	6'2, 224	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8349

7. The linebackers are going to have to carry some water

Syracuse returns four of last year's top five defensive tackles, and all four are sophomores. Chris Slayton proved decent in the play-making department, and both Steven Clark and Kayton Smauels fit the role of space-eating nose tackle.

At linebacker, virtually everybody's back; despite Parris Bennett missing four games, Bennett and Zaire Franklin combined for 14.5 tackles for loss. Franklin is a particularly impressive play-maker.

The problem: Even with solid tackles in front of them, the linebackers are going to have to make a ton of plays because there are no ends back from last year. At the end of spring practice, the first stringers were redshirt freshman Jack Pickard and true freshman Kenneth Ruff. The other options are career reserves Hernz Laguerre and Trey Dunkelberger and other true freshmen like Jaquwan Nelson and Kendall Coleman.

Even if this end unit turns into something presentable, it will happen in fits and starts. You probably can't expect more than three or four sacks out of either Pickard or Ruff, and you probably can't expect Syracuse to have much of a pass rush unless the blitzing is relentless and effective. The run defense should be okay, but the secondary will face quite a bit of pressure on passing downs with unharried quarterbacks.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Antwan Cordy	FS	5'8, 180	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7800	12	59.0	9.0%	12	2	2	2	1	1
Cordell Hudson	CB	5'11, 175	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8145	12	38.5	5.9%	2	0	2	3	0	0
Chauncey Scissum	FS	6'2, 210	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8259	12	35.0	5.3%	0.5	0	0	1	0	0
Juwan Dowels	CB	5'10, 180	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8308	12	34.5	5.2%	1.5	0	1	5	0	0
Corey Winfield	CB	6'1, 191	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7988	8	28.0	4.3%	2	2	2	3	1	0
Kielan Whitner	SS	6'0, 197	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7793	12	28.0	4.3%	0.5	0	0	1	1	0
Julian Whigham	CB					11	19.0	2.9%	0.5	0	0	3	0	0
Rodney Williams	SS	5'10, 189	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7964	9	15.0	2.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Wayne Morgan	CB	5'11, 193	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8994	12	14.0	2.1%	0.5	0	0	2	0	0
Daivon Ellison	SS	5'8, 171	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8234	8	6.0	0.9%	0	0	0	1	1	0
Eric Anthony	SS	6'0, 200	Sr.	NR	NR	11	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Christopher Fredrick	CB	5'11, 187	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8342
James Pierre	S	6'2, 175	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8558
Evan Foster	S	6'2, 195	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8321
Devon Clarke	S	6'3, 190	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8321
Scoop Bradshaw	S	5'11, 170	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8304

8. The secondary will be as good as it is allowed to be

The good news is that the secondary should be solid. Safety Antwan Cordy is the closest thing to Duke's Jeremy Cash remaining in the conference now that Cash is gone -- he recorded 12 tackles for loss and four passes defensed last year. Two sophomore cornerbacks, Cordell Hudson and Juwan Dowels, should be ready to make some plays, and thanks to both injuries and youth, nine returnees got solid playing time last year. This isn't the best secondary in the ACC or anything, but it will be good enough if the front seven doesn't make its job too difficult.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Riley Dixon			65	43.7	5	28	24	80.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Ryan Norton			60	61.9	22	1	36.7%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Cole Murphy	6'3, 197	Jr.	37-37	13-15	86.7%	3-7	42.9%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Brisly Estime	KR	5'9, 182	Sr.	30	22.2	0
Dontae Strickland	KR	5'11, 196	So.	4	20.5	0
Brisly Estime	PR	5'9, 182	Sr.	15	18.1	2

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	30
Field Goal Efficiency	67
Punt Return Success Rate	50
Kick Return Success Rate	71
Punt Success Rate	5
Kickoff Success Rate	59

9. Not the worst time in the world to lose your punter

Punter Riley Dixon was a phenomenal weapon last year, averaging nearly 44 yards per kick and allowing only 14 returns in 65 punts. That he's gone means Syracuse is minus one impressive player.

But if you're going to lose your punter, you might as well do it at a time when your offense is probably about to improve. Even if everything doesn't click for the offense, I'd be surprised if the Orange are still punting 5.5 times per game.

The rest of the special teams unit was neither great nor terrible. Cole Murphy makes most of his kicks under 40 yards, and Brisly Estime is a mighty dangerous return man, albeit one who will have quite a few 1-yard returns mixed in with an explosion or two.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
2-Sep	Colgate	NR	30.8	96%
9-Sep	Louisville	20	-5.2	38%
17-Sep	South Florida	41	2.0	55%
24-Sep	at Connecticut	81	4.3	60%
1-Oct	vs. Notre Dame	11	-11.0	26%
8-Oct	at Wake Forest	74	1.7	54%
15-Oct	Virginia Tech	32	-0.1	50%
22-Oct	at Boston College	50	-2.4	44%
5-Nov	at Clemson	3	-22.0	10%
12-Nov	N.C. State	40	1.9	54%
19-Nov	Florida State	5	-10.4	27%
26-Nov	at Pittsburgh	29	-8.1	32%
Projected wins: 5.5

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-2.5% (68)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	59 / 63
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	5 / 1.5
2015 TO Luck/Game	+1.5
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	90% (100%, 80%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	4.6 (-0.6)

10. Experience where you need it

Weighting returning production where it seems to matter the most, Syracuse returns more of last year's production than anyone in the country not named LSU or UCF (so basically, anyone above the 31st parallel). The receiving corps and secondary are wonderfully experienced, and the quarterback has upside.

Because the likely improvement is pretty extreme with this level of returning talent, Syracuse is projected to immediately become a top-50 team under Babers.

The schedule will impact the level of growth in the win column, though. With so many top-40 teams on the docket, Syracuse is projected to win only 5.5 games, with seven games falling between 38 and 60 percent win probability (along with one likely win and four likely losses).

You can maneuver through that, but the most likely scenario is that Babers will need a year to fully weaponize the offense and figure out how to attack on defense. Expect a lot of shootouts, and expect Syracuse to win a few. But it's possible that the Orange's 2016 improvement is of the "from a bad 4-8 to a good 5-7" variety.