Boston College's offense cannot be worse in 2016, but its defense cannot be better

Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year's team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year's roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

1. Challenge accepted

Last year's Wake Forest preview was titled, "I didn't realize an offense could be as bad as Wake Forest's was." Dave Clawson's first Wake offense was absurdly young and averaged 14.8 points per game and, per Off. S&P+, 11.1 adjusted points per game. It was easily the worst in the country.

Technically, Boston College's wasn't that bad in 2015. The Eagles averaged 17.2 points per game and, per Off. S&P+, 15.4 adjusted points per game. They ranked 124th, which meant that somehow there were four offenses worse. (Those four, which I am hesitant to name without involving the witness protection program: ULM, UCF, Charlotte, and Kent State.) They were bad at running and hideously bad at throwing.

The worst part: the timing. In Steve Addazio's first two years, he was able to engineer solid offense. The Eagles ranked 30th in Off. S&P+ in 2013 behind the bludgeoning power of running back Andre Williams. They lost Williams in 2014 but got a combined 2,000 rushing yards out of Jon Hilliman and graduate-transfer quarterback Tyler Murphy.

The defense was moving in the right direction, too. After ranking 73rd in Def. S&P+ in 2013, the Eagles rose to 36th in 2014. They went 7-6 each year but had improved rapidly since the end of the Frank Spaziani era.

It was painfully obvious BC was going to take a step backwards in 2015, however.

The record remained the same in 2014, mainly because the Eagles went from one game above .500 in one-possession games to one game below, but they ran through USC, won four road games for the first time since 2007, played strong run defense, and crafted a clear offensive identity. They were a sound team that gave us a glimpse of what Addazio is trying to build.

There's quite a bit more building to do. After strong improvement for two consecutive years, all expectations are off the table for now. The quarterback is gone, as are last year's top three wideouts, five offensive linemen who had combined for 134 career starts, the defense's two leading pass rushers, and five of the top eight in the secondary.

I needn't have worried about the defense, which went from good to incredible. But a young offense just kept getting younger. As brutal as Georgia Tech's offensive injury troubles were, BC's were worse.

Hilliman played in four games, and new starting quarterback Darius Wade played in three. The top three backup running backs missed a combined eight games, and three quarterbacks -- all freshmen, one a walk-on -- lined up behind center when Wade went down. Eight different linemen started at least one game.

The receivers remained reasonably healthy, but they were green, and there weren't any quarterbacks who could get the ball to them anyway.

This was a complete and total implosion. But if you're going to implode, you might as well do it with freshmen and sophomores. Wade and Hilliman are back, Addazio has added graduate transfers at quarterback and on the offensive line, and the receiving corps is led by sophomores and juniors instead of freshmen and sophomores. There is almost literally nowhere to go but up.

When an Addazio offense regresses, it plummets. In his two years as Temple's head coach, he improved the Owls' Off. S&P+ rating from 95th to 64th, then watched it drop right back to 96th. And in three years at BC, he's improved it from 103rd to 30th, then watched it fall from 46th to 124th. An optimist would say that's good news for 2016 -- if nothing else, he's turned really bad offenses around before.

But the offense will have to turn around, because there's also almost nowhere for the defense to go but down. It is experienced, if thin, but it is replacing a pair of fantastic linemen, and it's got a new defensive coordinator. Don Brown's 2015 performance was so impressive that he got a call from Jim Harbaugh and moved to Ann Arbor. Addazio replaced him with Iowa linebackers coach and former BC DC Jim Reid.

Even with a dreadful offense, it took BC five one-possession losses to fall to 3-9. The Eagles aren't far from a solid rebound. But Addazio has spent whatever goodwill he had banked from a decent first couple of years. Can he win some of it back?

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 3-9 | Adj. Record: 5-7 | Final F/+ Rk: 70 | Final S&P+ Rk: 67
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
5-Sep	Maine	N/A	24-3	W	78%	100%	+2.6
12-Sep	Howard	N/A	76-0	W	99%	100%	+34.4
18-Sep	Florida State	12	0-14	L	30%	5%	-3.6	-6.5
26-Sep	Northern Illinois	66	17-14	W	78%	95%	-4.9	-1.5
3-Oct	at Duke	74	7-9	L	63%	72%	+11.8	+5.0
10-Oct	Wake Forest	92	0-3	L	47%	72%	-16.1	-10.5
17-Oct	at Clemson	2	17-34	L	31%	4%	+11.3	-1.5
24-Oct	at Louisville	39	14-17	L	34%	18%	-1.9	+4.5
31-Oct	Virginia Tech	59	10-26	L	35%	27%	-23.0	-13.5
7-Nov	NC State	49	8-24	L	7%	0%	-15.9	-12.0
21-Nov	vs. Notre Dame	7	16-19	L	36%	16%	+10.8	+13.5
28-Nov	at Syracuse	85	17-20	L	61%	83%	-3.5	-6.0

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	15.4	124	14.0	3
Points Per Game	17.2	121	15.3	4

2. The wheels on the bus go flying off

BC's defense was damn good by any measure. The Eagles allowed more than 20 points just three times; they allowed 3.8 yards per play to FSU, 2.7 to NIU, 4.9 to Louisville, 4.0 to Virginia Tech, and 3.4 to Syracuse. They suffered some blips along the way -- 34 points and 6.8 yards per play to Clemson, 24 and 5.9 to NC State, respectively -- but this was a dynamite unit.

Still, the Eagles' overall statistical profile probably benefited a bit from what they did to outmanned Maine and Howard squads. Two games in, BC had allowed 102 yards and three points. Both Maine and Howard were credited with seven rushing yards, and Howard combined that with just four passing yards.

BC scored 206 points in 2015, and 37 percent of them came in one game. Take out the 76-3 Howard win, and BC averaged 11.8 points.

Even acknowledging the lopsidedness of these two games, however, there was still a clear trend. The Eagles came within five points of a 5-1 start with great defense and merely bad offense, then watched as the offense got slightly worse and the defense became mortal.

• First 4 games vs. FBS opposition: 
  Record: 1-3 | Average percentile performance: 55% (~top 60) | Yards per play: BC 4.0, Opp 3.1 (+0.9)
• Last 6 games:
  Record: 0-6 | Average percentile performance: 34% (~top 85) | Yards per play: Opp 5.2, BC 3.9 (-1.3)

BC managed to lose four games while allowing 17 or fewer points, which is pretty difficult to do.

But seriously, it was a damn shame BC lost those Duke and Wake Forest games. The Eagles could have won 10-9 and 6-3, and they'd have been 5-1 and probably receiving poll votes ... while having scored 33 points in four games against FBS teams.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.19	102	IsoPPP+	69.7	126
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	30.4%	128	Succ. Rt. +	76.0	125
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	28.9	47	Def. FP+	29.0	53
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.0	104	Redzone S&P+	98.8	78
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	19.7		ACTUAL	20	+0.3

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	126	126	125	126
RUSHING	73	111	116	107
PASSING	125	127	128	127
Standard Downs		128	128	127
Passing Downs		114	99	120

Q1 Rk	121	1st Down Rk	124
Q2 Rk	125	2nd Down Rk	118
Q3 Rk	124	3rd Down Rk	90
Q4 Rk	77

3. A Scot Loeffler offense

Loeffler has now been an offensive coordinator at four schools, all of which were basically asking him for a miracle. He came with Addazio to Temple in 2011 and was asked to fix an offense that hadn't been good since the 1970s. He succeeded -- as mentioned, the Owls improved from 95th in Off. S&P+ to a respectable 64th, and it powered a 9-4 squad.

So he's 1-for-3. His Temple success got him hired by Gene Chizik at Auburn. The Tigers' offense had fallen from first in Off. S&P+ to 37th in Gus Mazlahn's last year, and when Malzahn took the Arkansas State head coaching job, Loeffler finalized the collapse. Auburn ranked 93rd; nothing worked.

On to Virginia Tech. The Hokies had fallen from 13th to 44th to 87th in the three years before he arrived. With Loeffler, it neither rebounded nor fell further: They ranked 71st, 85th, and 74th in his three years.

Loeffler's philosophy is hard to read. My first stab at describing it was a word salad: pro-style spread. Power spread? He wants to run and feature plenty of power concepts, but he doesn't slow the tempo to a crawl, and he doesn't mind spreading defenses out.

That he's been a college coordinator for half a decade and it's hard to describe his intentions is probably not a good thing, but a) no coordinator in the world was going to save that 2012 Auburn team, and b) his one success has been when he was paired with Addazio.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Patrick Towles (Kentucky)	6'5, 238	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8902	183	326	2148	9	14	56.1%	25	7.1%	5.7
Jeff Smith	6'1, 182	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8389	27	82	253	2	3	32.9%	8	8.9%	2.3
John Fadule	6'1, 215	So.	NR		38	73	464	1	4	52.1%	10	12.0%	4.7
Troy Flutie	6'0, 182	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7959	24	49	382	3	1	49.0%	5	9.3%	6.5
Darius Wade	6'0, 204	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8510	21	42	232	2	1	50.0%	4	8.7%	4.4
Anthony Brown	6'3, 190	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8517

4. Two distinct directions

BC featured a unique quarterback battle this spring. With Jeff Smith and Troy Flutie both tentatively moving to receiver, that left Wade, walk-on John Fadule, and Kentucky graduate transfer Patrick Towles. Wade showed decent run-pass (but mostly run) potential before he got hurt last year, rushing 18 times for 103 yards (not including sacks).

Towles isn't going to run very much but has had his moments gunning the ball around. He didn't have ENOUGH of those moments in Lexington, but in singular performances -- 22-for-27 for 249 yards and two scores against Missouri in 2015, 24-for-43 for 390 yards and two scores against Mississippi State in 2014 -- he was brilliant.

The choice of Wade vs. Towles is as much about style as quality. Combining Wade with a bull like Hilliman and explosive (and inefficient) options like Tyler Rouse and Myles Willis could give BC a dynamic run game if the principles remain healthy, especially if the line takes a step forward after giving freshmen and sophomores 26 starts last year (and adding Jimmy Lowery, a nearly three-year starter at Eastern Illinois).

On the other hand, if you don't think you can get enough efficiency out of those running backs, you could go with more of a pass-first attack by having Towles distribute to juniors Thadd Smith, Charlie Callinan, and Drew Barksdale, sophomores Elijah Robinson and Michael Walker, and countless running backs and tight ends.

Knowing Addazio's style, and acknowledging that Wade was evidently quite a bit better than Towles in the spring game (even while seemingly working on a pass-heavy attack), I figure the former is more likely. But it's nice to have options, right?

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Tyler Rouse	RB	5'8, 194	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	100	422	7	4.2	6.0	31.0%	2	0
Myles Willis	RB	5'9, 194	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8419	67	259	0	3.9	6.0	29.9%	0	0
Jeff Smith	QB/WR	6'1, 182	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8389	64	504	6	7.9	9.9	48.4%	6	2
Marcus Outlow	RB					53	241	1	4.5	4.3	37.7%	0	0
Jon Hilliman	RB	6'0, 224	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8808	51	198	2	3.9	2.9	37.3%	1	1
John Fadule	QB	6'1, 215	So.	NR	NR	29	171	0	5.9	7.1	41.4%	2	2
Richard Wilson	FB	5'10, 224	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8080	25	73	1	2.9	3.1	24.0%	0	0
Darius Wade	QB	6'0, 204	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8510	18	103	0	5.7	5.0	44.4%	0	0
Troy Flutie	QB/WR	6'0, 182	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7959	18	62	0	3.4	5.0	27.8%	2	1
Jordan Gowins	RB					15	43	0	2.9	2.6	26.7%	2	2
Sherman Alston	WR					13	36	0	2.8	2.7	38.5%	2	1
Thadd Smith	WR	5'9, 175	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8675	9	56	0	6.2	3.9	55.6%	1	0

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Thadd Smith	WR	5'9, 175	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8675	33	17	233	51.5%	15.7%	7.1	45.5%	39.4%	1.49
David Dudeck	WR					30	15	127	50.0%	14.3%	4.2	40.0%	26.7%	1.26
Elijah Robinson	WR	6'2, 187	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8503	29	11	111	37.9%	13.8%	3.8	44.8%	20.7%	1.62
Charlie Callinan	WR	6'4, 224	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8210	25	14	192	56.0%	11.9%	7.7	56.0%	44.0%	1.63
Tyler Rouse	RB	5'8, 194	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	15	11	186	73.3%	7.1%	12.4	60.0%	66.7%	1.85
Sherman Alston	WR					14	7	77	50.0%	6.7%	5.5	35.7%	35.7%	1.41
Bobby Wolford	FB	6'2, 248	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8403	12	9	80	75.0%	5.7%	6.7	66.7%	58.3%	0.93
Bobby Swigert	WR					11	5	39	45.5%	5.2%	3.5	18.2%	36.4%	0.93
Marcus Outlow	RB					9	4	53	44.4%	4.3%	5.9	22.2%	22.2%	2.39
Tommy Sweeney	TE	6'5, 246	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7939	8	5	68	62.5%	3.8%	8.5	75.0%	62.5%	1.16
Michael Walker	WR	6'0, 195	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8106	4	2	41	50.0%	1.9%	10.3	25.0%	50.0%	1.48
Drew Barksdale	WR	5'11, 198	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8178	3	3	20	100.0%	1.4%	6.7	33.3%	33.3%	1.84
Michael Giacone	TE	6'5, 254	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8419
Jeff Smith	WR	6'1, 182	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8389
Jake Burt	TE	6'5, 230	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8084
Troy Flutie	WR	6'0, 182	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7959
Ben Glines	WR	6'2, 205	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8414
Nolan Borgersen	WR	6'3, 200	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8371
Kobay White	WR	6'1, 187	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8482

5. A lot of guys who bring one thing to the table

Willis and Rouse showed explosiveness in the open field but almost never found the open field. Hilliman has not been as efficient as his four-star status and size (224 pounds) would suggest, but he seemed to be improving last year. Wade could bring one hell of a read-option game but was wholly unimpressive throwing. Towles is somewhat mobile (he'll give you three or four non-sack rushes for 15-20 yards in a given game) but has been best as a stand-and-throw statue.

It continues with the receiving corps. Thadd Smith is the size of a slot receiver but offered explosiveness (13.7 yards per catch) with almost no efficiency. Charlie Callinan was basically the same, only from a tight end-sized package. Jeff Smith is a strong athlete who was far worse than Wade at throwing and was slow to adapt to receiver this spring. Rouse and fullback Bobby Wolford were efficient receiving options out of the backfield, but you can't base a decent offense around fullback flares. (Oh, but if you could...)

Loeffler has his work cut out for him. He's got options, but it's mostly one-dimensional talent.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	88.4	2.26	2.95	36.0%	61.5%	26.5%	59.6	10.3%	11.8%
Rank	115	125	93	100	93	127	125	126	120

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Harris Williams	LG					12	26
Jon Baker	C	6'3, 293	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8547	12	13
Dave Bowen	RT					10	10
Chris Lindstrom	RG	6'4, 260	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8275	9	9
Jim Cashman	LG	6'7, 302	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8434	7	7
Aaron Monteiro	LT	6'7, 336	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8464	5	5
Frank Taylor	C					3	3
James Hendren	RT					2	2
Jimmy Lowery (Eastern Illinois)	OL	6'4, 290	Sr.	NR	NR	12	30
Sam Schmal	LT	6'6, 294	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8183	0	0
Austin Stevens	RG	6'3, 270	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7826	0	0
Anthony Palazzolo	OL	6'6, 315	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8590
Wyatt Knopfke	OL	6'4, 285	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8449
John Phillips	OL	6'6, 295	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8390
Shane Leonard	OL	6'1, 291	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8301
Sean Ragan	OL	6'5, 291	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8269

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.26	67	IsoPPP+	134.4	2
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	29.1%	1	Succ. Rt. +	133.0	2
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	30.9	45	Off. FP+	30.3	57
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	3.2	2	Redzone S&P+	166.4	1
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	15.5		ACTUAL	23.0	+7.5

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	1	2	2	2
RUSHING	2	2	2	2
PASSING	6	14	8	21
Standard Downs		10	7	17
Passing Downs		1	1	1

Q1 Rk	13	1st Down Rk	2
Q2 Rk	3	2nd Down Rk	3
Q3 Rk	9	3rd Down Rk	3
Q4 Rk	1

6. The Leicester of college football defenses

Leicester recently won the English Premier League based on a unique concoction of perfect counter-attacking and pace. While all of soccer's haves were purchasing brilliant foreign talent, the Foxes rode to the title with a few unproven pieces and a couple of Englishmen who had failed in their first try at the big-time. Manager Claudio Raineri, once fired by Chelsea, used almost the same lineup all year.

That's an over-simplification -- Leicester's story requires a lot more than one paragraph -- but BC's defense in a lot of ways reminded me of Leicester. The sustainability might, too.

After solid improvement in 2014, Don Brown, who has bounced around to nearly every Northeastern school (Dartmouth, Yale, Plymouth State, Brown, UMass, Northeastern, Maryland, UConn, BC), found the perfect mix of old-school principles, a willing collection of talent, and a small rotation. And because the defense didn't suffer the injuries the offense suffered, he got away with it.

Reid has quite a bit to work with with the return of three of the top five on the line, two of three linebackers, and five of six defensive backs. But injuries will almost certainly hit this unit harder than they did last year, and without the strong core of end Mehdi Abdesmad, tackle Connor Wujcak, and middle linebacker Steven Daniels, it's easy to wonder if the recipe has been altered a bit too much. Last year's defense was uniquely brilliant; this year's may be only good.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	144.4	1.97	1.99	26.6%	56.2%	31.3%	136.1	5.2%	12.0%
Rank	1	1	2	1	19	1	15	59	7

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Harold Landry	DE	6'3, 245	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8606	12	48.5	8.1%	14.5	4.5	0	0	3	1
Mehdi Abdesmad	DE					12	42.0	7.0%	15.0	5.5	0	0	0	0
Connor Wujciak	NT					12	27.5	4.6%	11.0	4.5	0	0	1	0
Truman Gutapfel	DT	6'3, 281	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7914	12	20.0	3.3%	7.5	2.0	0	1	0	0
Kevin Kavalec	DE	6'2, 253	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7982	11	16.5	2.8%	8.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Ray Smith	DT	6'1, 264	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8393	5	4.5	0.8%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Wyatt Ray	DE	6'3, 230	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8447	12	3.5	0.6%	1.5	0.5	0	1	0	0
Evan Kelly	NT					12	3.0	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jack Cottrell	DE	6'4, 247	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8519	2	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Zach Allen	DE	6'5, 265	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8461	12	1.5	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Noa Merritt	DT	6'0, 268	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7756
Kevin Cohee	DT	6'2, 257	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8295
Tanner Karafa	DE	6'3, 240	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8439
Bryce Morais	DE	6'5, 259	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8493

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Steven Daniels	MLB					12	66.5	11.1%	16.0	6.0	1	2	0	0
Connor Strachan	MLB	6'2, 230	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8810	12	61.5	10.3%	12.5	2.0	2	1	0	0
Matt Milano	SLB	6'1, 218	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8220	12	54.0	9.0%	17.5	6.5	0	3	2	1
Ty Schwab	WLB	6'1, 222	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8266	10	12.5	2.1%	2.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Mike Strizak	WLB	6'2, 239	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8789	12	4.5	0.8%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Kevin Bletzer	SLB	6'2, 217	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7992	12	3.0	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Colton Cardinal	LB	6'3, 230	So.	NR	NR	2	2.0	0.3%	2.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Sharrieff Grice	SLB	6'1, 201	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8268
Jimmy Martin	LB	5'11, 220	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8307
Ethan Tucky	LB	6'3, 218	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8684

7. Who's gone vs. who's back

It wasn't a complete surprise that BC's line stats were so good in 2015. The Eagles ranked 30th in Adj. Line Yards and fourth in stuff rate in 2014 and returned four of their top five linemen. Plus, Abdesmad was returning from injury, and former four-star recruit Harold Landry was ready for a breakthrough.

The degree of dominance, however, was a little bit of a surprise. BC was first in Adj. Line Yards, first in stuff rate, second in Rushing S&P+, and suddenly 15th in Adj. Sack Rate as well. The Eagles combined a brilliant run defense with the best passing downs defense in the country.

If you look at the talent that left, you have to figure regression is on the way. But I already made that point. And if you look at who's back, it's hard to assume BC won't still hvae a pretty potent front line.

It starts with Landry and Matt Milano. These edge defenders combined for 32 tackles for loss and 11 sacks last year, and that wasn't all because of Abdesmad, Wujcak and Daniels. Their return gives BC proven attacking ability. Plus, in Connor Strachan, the Eagles have a willing, awesome run defender at middle linebacker, and in end Kevin Kavalec and tackle Truman Gutapfel, they have two guys who shined in reserve roles.

It's easy to worry about depth in the front seven, but if the intended starting seven can avoid injury or the most part, it will still be a really good unit.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Justin Simmons	FS					12	58.0	9.7%	1	0	5	2	2	0
John Johnson	SS	6'0, 198	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7919	12	54.0	9.0%	1.5	0.5	3	3	2	0
Gabriel McClary	CB	6'3, 204	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8392	12	25.5	4.3%	1	1	0	2	2	0
Kamrin Moore	CB	5'11, 192	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8367	8	23.0	3.8%	2	0	0	4	0	0
William Harris	SS	6'2, 193	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8272	12	18.5	3.1%	0	0	1	1	1	0
Isaac Yiadom	CB	6'1, 184	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8396	9	16.5	2.8%	0	0	1	4	0	0
Taj-Amir Torres	CB	5'10, 170	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7932	11	9.5	1.6%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Atem Ntantang	FS	5'11, 193	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7844	12	5.0	0.8%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Mike Palmer	DB	6'1, 163	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8054

8. Nobody get hurt

BC survived a couple of injuries in the back last year -- corner Kamrin Moore suffered a leg injury near the end of October, and Isaac Yiadom got hurt a game later. This was the primary reason for late-season regression: After allowing a 97.0 passer rating through eight games, the Eagles allowed a 119.0 over the last four and a 146.1 against Scot Loeffler's Virginia Tech offense.

The base of returnees is strong with John Johnson, Gabriel McClary and William Harris at safety and Gabriel McClary, Moore, Yiadom, and Taj-Amir Torres at corner. But there aren't any obvious reinforcements waiting in the wings, so if injuries occur again, it's hard to imagine there won't be more regression this time around.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Alex Howell			92	41.7	6	24	22	50.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Colton Lichtenberg	5'10, 175	So.	24	60.1	4	3	16.7%
Alex Howell			17	58.2	4	0	23.5%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Mike Knoll	6'0, 207	Jr.	9-9	2-2	100.0%	0-1	0.0%
Colton Lichtenberg	5'10, 175	So.	6-6	1-3	33.3%	2-3	66.7%
Alex Howell			8-8	1-2	50.0%	0-0	N/A

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Michael Walker	KR	6'0, 195	So.	24	28.6	0
Myles Willis	KR	5'9, 194	Sr.	3	21.7	0
Sherman Alston	PR			22	8.1	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	101
Field Goal Efficiency	125
Punt Return Success Rate	81
Kick Return Success Rate	28
Punt Success Rate	15
Kickoff Success Rate	109

9. Punting was a (necessary) strength

The bad news: BC cycled through three place-kickers and stunk at kickoff coverage.

The good news: That rarely mattered with an offense that didn't score.

Punter Alex Howell was awesome, with came in handy considering he was asked to punt 92 times, more than anyone in the country outside of Kent State's Anthony Melchiori. But he's gone, so uh, maybe BC shouldn't punt so much this year. Analysis!

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
3-Sep	vs. Georgia Tech	54	0.3	51%
10-Sep	at Massachusetts	127	18.3	85%
17-Sep	at Virginia Tech	32	-8.1	32%
24-Sep	Wagner	NR	47.6	100%
1-Oct	Buffalo	109	19.4	87%
7-Oct	Clemson	3	-16.0	18%
22-Oct	Syracuse	44	2.4	56%
29-Oct	at N.C. State	40	-6.2	36%
5-Nov	Louisville	20	-6.2	36%
11-Nov	at Florida State	5	-18.5	14%
19-Nov	Connecticut	81	10.2	72%
26-Nov	at Wake Forest	74	0.6	51%
Projected wins: 6.4

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-2.5% (67)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	64 / 66
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	3 / -4.1
2015 TO Luck/Game	+2.7
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	81% (92%, 71%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	5.9 (-2.9)

10. This is a tenuous time for Addazio

With an offense that almost certainly won't be as bad, BC very nearly won eight games last year.

With a defense that almost certainly won't be as good, BC lost nine games and nearly lost a 10th.

Both of these things are true, and it makes it very difficult to figure out the Eagles in 2016.

I expected a reset from Addazio's squad in 2015, but I didn't expect the Eagles to lose nine games with the worst power-conference offense in the country. I expect the offense to rebound more than the defense regresses, which means improvement, but how much?

The schedule doesn't feature quite as many tossups as we have seen from other ACC slates. The Eagles are given between a 36 and 56 percent chance of winning in five games but are likely favorites in four. Split the tossups, and you're bowling again.

A few close losses in 2014 meant Addazio hadn't stored up as much goodwill as he should have from what really was an impressive two-year surge. And a total offensive collapse (with a few more close losses) meant he used all of it up. He needs to rebound this year, and he probably will.