Why the heck aren't we talking about Oregon as a serious Pac-12 contender?

Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year's team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year's roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

1. Life comes at you quickly

This time a year ago, Oregon was the defending Pac-12 champion and national runner-up. The Ducks had won at least nine games for each of the last eight seasons and would start 2015 as the AP's No. 7 team, tops in the Pac-12.

The Ducks' 2015 featured all-bets-are-off quarterback injury issues, but they won nine games and finished ninth in Off. S&P+, their fifth consecutive year in the top 10 and seventh in nine seasons. They ceded the Pac-12 title to Stanford because of an early loss of form but won at Stanford, crushed USC, and finished the regular season winning six games in a row. They were probably the best team in the conference in November.

For an injury-addled rebuilding season, this is quite acceptable. Oregon didn't look like Oregon in September, kind of did in October, and very much did in November. The Ducks blew a huge Alamo Bowl lead when their quarterback again went down with injury, but bowl results don't mean much.

So why is Oregon a complete and total Pac-12 afterthought? We're all picking either Stanford or Washington to win the conference, it seems. Just 18 months after the Ducks made the National Championship -- a game they trailed by one point until the last play of the third quarter -- they have been relegated to getting courtesy spots deep in top 25s, if that. Athlon has the Ducks 24th, Lindy's 24th. Phil Steele has them unranked.

Have we all lost our damn minds? What gives here? A few things:

1. Oregon's defense completely fell apart. Oregon's never had a truly elite defense during this nine-year run of nine-win seasons, but on six occasions the Ducks ranked between 15th and 33rd in Def. S&P+. That's good enough when you've got a great offense.

In 2015, Oregon ranked 82nd. Just enough 2014 pieces left -- linemen Arik Armstead and Sam Kamp, linebackers Derrick Malone Jr. and Tony Washington, defensive backs Erick Dargan, Troy Hill, and Ifo Ekpre-Olomu -- to affect the balance of the bend-don't-break scheme defensive coordinator Don Pellum seemed to prefer. And then injuries wreaked havoc on the linebacking corps and secondary.

A bend-don't-break defense can be just fine if you're limiting big plays and making stops in the redzone. Oregon did neither well enough. So Helfrich made a change, bumping Pellum back to linebackers coach and ace recruiter and bringing aboard former Michigan head coach Brady Hoke.

2. Another year, another quarterback change. When Vernon Adams was healthy, all was right with the offense. He wasn't quite as effective as Marcus Mariota, but that's a really high bar. Despite Adams missing three games and parts of others, Oregon still ranked ninth in Off. S&P+.

But when he was off the field, things tended to fall apart. Adams averaged 8.7 yards per pass attempt; backup Jeff Lockie averaged 4.7. In 85 rushes and sacks, Adams fumbled four times; Lockie fumbled three times in 34.

Adams was a graduate transfer, a one-year patch. Though Lockie and last year's third-stringer Taylor Alie are back, it appears the QB race is between another graduate transfer (Montana State's Dakota Prukop) and a redshirt freshman (Travis Jonsen, who missed last year with a turf toe injury). Despite exciting pedigrees -- Prukop threw for more than 3,000 yards and rushed for more than 800 last year, and Jonsen was a blue-chipper in the 2015 recruiting class -- both are relative unknowns. Technically, so is new coordinator Matt Lubick, who took over when Scott Frost became UCF's head coach.

3. We are fickle creatures. We just are. What have you done for me lately?

Oregon is projected 18th in S&P+ -- higher than most of these human-based rankings, but not exactly top-10 -- so it's not like this is simply humans being fickle. Still, it doesn't take too many ifs to make the Ducks a Pac-12 contender again.

And knowing how players seek fuel via disrespect, head coach Mark Helfrich probably doesn't mind that we're not talking about his team very much.

This is Bill C's daily preview series, working its way through every 2016 team. Catch up on the Pac-12 so far!

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 9-4 | Adj. Record: 11-2 | Final F/+ Rk: 23 | Final S&P+ Rk: 25
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
5-Sep	Eastern Washington	N/A	61-42	W	80%	98%	-13.4
12-Sep	at Michigan State	9	28-31	L	46%	19%	-3.7	+1.0
19-Sep	Georgia State	87	61-28	W	91%	99%	-6.2	-12.0
26-Sep	Utah	22	20-62	L	8%	0%	-57.4	-53.0
3-Oct	at Colorado	94	41-24	W	86%	98%	+7.8	+9.0
10-Oct	Washington State	54	38-45	L	62%	52%	-19.8	-24.0
17-Oct	at Washington	13	26-20	W	79%	76%	+22.3	+8.5
29-Oct	at Arizona State	50	61-55	W	55%	48%	+7.5	+8.5
7-Nov	California	29	44-28	W	90%	97%	+17.8	+11.5
14-Nov	at Stanford	6	38-36	W	75%	57%	+15.0	+12.0
21-Nov	USC	17	48-28	W	97%	100%	+24.7	+16.0
27-Nov	Oregon State	107	52-42	W	77%	98%	-17.1	-24.5
2-Jan	vs. TCU	19	41-47	L	68%	45%	-3.7	-6.0

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	41.9	9	30.4	82
Points Per Game	43.0	5	37.5	116

2. Rounding into form

Whatever goals Oregon had, they were out the window by midseason.

Any hopes of a national title were dashed either when the Ducks' comeback at Michigan State fell just short or when Utah pantsed them in Eugene two weeks later.

With Adams injured against the Utes, Oregon put together its most fragile performance in probably a decade. They committed three turnovers, gave up five sacks, allowed a trick-play punt return score, and got outscored 49-7 in the middle two quarters. It was a rare sign of mortality, and it was probably the moment a lot of us wrote them off through 2016.

Any hopes of a Pac-12 title went out the window when the Ducks blew a couple of early scoring chances against Washington State and fell in overtime. But by that point, the improvement was already underway.

• First 4 games:
  Record: 2-2 | Average percentile performance: 56% (~top 55) | Yards per play: UO 6.6, Opp 6.2 (+0.4)
• Next 4 games:
  Record: 3-1 | Average percentile performance: 71% (~top 35) | Yards per play: UO 6.7, Opp 5.9 (+0.8)
• Next 4 games:
  Record: 4-0 | Average percentile performance: 85% (~top 20) | Yards per play: UO 8.4, Opp 6.1 (+2.3)

After the Wazzu game, Oregon began to look like Oregon again. In their final six regular-season games, they beat the Pac-12 North champion on the road, the Pac-12 South champion at home by 20 points, and this year's preseason darling, Washington, on the road. After underachieving their S&P+ projection by 15.5 points per game in the first half of the year (minus-7.1 sans the Utah game), they overachieved by 11.7 points per game in the second half. They were Oregon again.

And then Adams got hurt, they blew a 31-0 halftime lead, and we wrote them off again.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.39	14	IsoPPP+	130.6	6
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	48.9%	8	Succ. Rt. +	118.4	12
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	31.0	95	Def. FP+	29.9	73
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.8	33	Redzone S&P+	120.1	9
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	20.1		ACTUAL	17	-3.1

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	5	6	12	6
RUSHING	5	2	10	1
PASSING	36	13	21	11
Standard Downs		5	13	5
Passing Downs		20	22	20

Q1 Rk	9	1st Down Rk	8
Q2 Rk	3	2nd Down Rk	5
Q3 Rk	27	3rd Down Rk	27
Q4 Rk	34

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Vernon Adams					168	259	2643	26	6	64.9%	27	9.4%	8.7
Jeff Lockie	6'2, 205	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8447	61	99	580	5	4	61.6%	11	10.0%	4.7
Taylor Alie	6'0, 185	Jr.	NR	NR	6	14	96	1	0	42.9%	1	6.7%	6.2
Dakota Prukop (Montana State)	6'2, 195	Sr.	NR	NR	216	344	3025	28	10	62.8%	11	3.1%	8.3
Travis Jonsen	6'3, 194	RSFr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9483
Justin Herbert	6'6, 215	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8584
Terry Wilson	6'3, 195	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8839

3. All about the QB

With the skill talent around him, I assume that if Lockie had held the starting QB job all year, he would have at some point generated large numbers. He is not without skill, and he had the misfortune of having to fill in for an injured Adams. Trying to rally the troops after the starter went down is not the easiest thing in the world.

Against Utah and TCU, when Adams started but had to come out, Lockie was 17-for-35 for 175 yards, one touchdown and two picks (passer rating: 88.6); in the three games in which Adams didn't play at all, Lockie was 46-for-73 for 405 yards, four touchdowns, and one pick (125.0). Granted, that was against Georgia State, Colorado, and Wazzu. Still, that's a pretty stark difference.

It's also still not very good. And it appears that in this year's battle for the starting job, Lockie was relegated from potential starter to "half mentor and half wideout." The actual battle for the starting job was between Prukop, Jonsen, and true freshman Terry Wilson.

Whoever wins just has to be competent for the Oregon offense to operate at a high level. Helfrich is still in charge, and Lubick has a solid pedigree -- three years as Oregon's receivers coach and passing game coordinator, three years under David Cutcliffe as Duke's receivers coach, five years under Dennis Erickson as defensive backs coach at Oregon State and Arizona State. And the starter will still throw to an absurdly deep set of exciting athletes.

That at least three quarterbacks have already surpassed last year's second-stringer tells us that the floor for the Oregon QB is higher than it was in 2015. Now we just have to find out about the ceiling.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Royce Freeman	RB	5'11, 230	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9817	284	1836	17	6.5	6.2	44.4%	2	0
Dakota Prukop (Montana State)	QB	6'2, 195	Sr.	NR	NR	147	870	11	5.9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Taj Griffin	RB	5'10, 175	So.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9742	77	570	3	7.4	12.3	37.7%	0	0
Vernon Adams	QB					58	304	2	5.2	3.4	44.8%	4	2
Kani Benoit	RB	6'0, 210	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8274	52	364	3	7.0	7.1	46.2%	1	1
Tony Brooks-James	RB	5'9, 185	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.8960	32	288	3	9.0	7.3	59.4%	0	0
Jeff Lockie	QB	6'2, 205	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8447	23	156	0	6.8	6.1	47.8%	3	0
Bralon Addison	WR					16	96	2	6.0	2.5	62.5%	2	1
Taylor Alie	QB	6'0, 185	Jr.	NR	NR	9	145	3	16.1	17.3	66.7%	0	0
Charles Nelson	WR	5'8, 170	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8706	6	115	1	19.2	20.9	66.7%	2	1
J.J. Jones	RB	5'9, 180	Sr.	NR	NR	4	15	0	3.8	2.3	50.0%	0	0

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Bralon Addison	WR					98	63	804	64.3%	27.2%	8.2	68.4%	50.0%	1.56
Darren Carrington	WR	6'2, 195	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9181	45	32	609	71.1%	12.5%	13.5	46.7%	53.3%	2.56
Dwayne Stanford	WR	6'5, 205	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8935	44	30	463	68.2%	12.2%	10.5	61.4%	59.1%	1.72
Pharaoh Brown (2014)	TE	6'6, 250	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9233	33	26	420	75.8%	7.0%	12.7	78.8%	N/A	N/A
Royce Freeman	RB	5'11, 230	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9817	31	26	348	83.9%	8.6%	11.2	51.6%	67.7%	1.61
Charles Nelson	WR	5'8, 170	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8706	31	17	270	54.8%	8.6%	8.7	61.3%	45.2%	1.90
Evan Baylis	TE	6'6, 250	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9153	27	16	229	59.3%	7.5%	8.5	51.9%	44.4%	1.79
Devon Allen	WR	6'0, 185	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9078	18	9	94	50.0%	5.0%	5.2	55.6%	44.4%	1.01
Taj Griffin	RB	5'10, 175	So.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9742	14	10	162	71.4%	3.9%	11.6	71.4%	50.0%	2.29
Byron Marshall	WR					14	9	121	64.3%	3.9%	8.6	57.1%	50.0%	1.86
Jalen Brown	WR	6'1, 200	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9471	12	7	89	58.3%	3.3%	7.4	75.0%	33.3%	2.28
Johnny Mundt	TE	6'4, 245	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8504	9	5	39	55.6%	2.5%	4.3	77.8%	44.4%	1.01
Kirk Merritt	WR				NR	7	5	61	71.4%	1.9%	8.7	100.0%	71.4%	1.30
Alex Ofodile	WR	6'3, 200	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9443
Jacob Breeland	TE	6'5, 221	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8600
Dylan Kane	WR	6'3, 195	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8482
Dillon Mitchell	WR	6'1, 190	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9280
Tristen Wallace	WR	6'4, 235	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9197
Cam McCormick	TE	6'5, 230	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8656

4. All the weapons you need (again)

Oregon lost Mariota, repeatedly dealt with Adams injuries, and got a combined four games out of Thomas Tyner (RB), Byron Marshall (WR), and Pharaoh Brown (TE). That's a recipe for a downfall, and the Ducks' offense did regress ... all the way from second to ninth in Off. S&P+.

While QB will continue to be a mystery, the skill guys surrounding the QB will be known entities.

• Royce Freeman is an incredible workhorse back who would be getting far more national attention if not for the presence of so many other great backs -- Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook, Nick Chubb, etc. Only 14 players carried the ball at least 275 times last season, and of those, only Freeman and Fournette combined an opportunity rate of at least 44 percent with an average of at least 6.1 highlight yards per opportunity. He was 164 yards from maybe the quietest 2,000-yard season ever in 2015.
• Backups Taj Griffin, Kani Benoit, and Tony Brooks-James all averaged at least 7.1 highlight yards per opportunity, and among backs with at least 70 carries, no one could touch Griffin's 12.3 average (the next highest: Georgia Southern's Matt Breida and Favian Upshaw, at 10.9 and 10.8).
• In two years, Darren Carrington has been targeted 95 times and caught 69 passes for 1313 yards. That's a crazy 13.8 yards per target. Notre Dame's Will Fuller averaged just 13.2 per target last year. TCU's Josh Doctson: 12.4.
• Most offenses are lucky to have one key receiver averaging over 10 yards per target. But it wasn't only who was Carrington absurdly prolific; Dwayne Stanford averaged 10.5 per target, Freeman and Griffin averaged a combined 11.3, and in 2014 Brown averaged 12.7.

This might be the most dangerous receiving corps in the country, and I didn't even mention receiver (and part-time cornerback) Charles Nelson or tight end Evan Baylis. Or four-star sophomore Jalen Brown. Or four-star redshirt freshman Alex Ofodile. Et cetera.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	117.5	3.46	3.74	45.6%	61.0%	16.1%	73.3	6.2%	12.4%
Rank	10	4	21	3	99	16	109	88	125

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Tyler Johnstone	LT					13	39	2015 1st All-Pac-12
Cameron Hunt	RG	6'4, 290	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9012	10	31
Matt Hegarty	C					13	26
Zac Morgan (Dayton)	RT	6'7, 280	Sr.	NR	NR	12	26
Tyrell Crosby	LT	6'5, 310	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8784	12	21
Matt Pierson	LG					12	19
Doug Brenner	RG	6'2, 305	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8270	3	4
Evan Voeller	LG	6'5, 290	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9017	2	2
Jake Pisarcik	LG	6'2, 300	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8081	0	2
Elijah George	LT	6'5, 290	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8228	0	0
Davis Miyashiro-Saipaia	LG	6'2, 300	So.	NR	0.7667	0	0
Zach Okun	C	6'4, 310	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9058
Brady Aiello	LT	6'7, 275	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8774
Shane Lemieux	LG	6'6, 302	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8706
Calvin Throckmorton	RT	6'6, 290	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8675
Jake Hanson	C	6'5, 288	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8591

5. FCS All-Stars

It would be pretty surprising if Oregon once again pursued an FCS graduate transfer at quarterback in 2017. That would be a sign that either Jonsen, Wilson, or fellow freshman Justin Herbert hadn't seized control of the job. I assume one will.

Still, I have to admit that I love Oregon taking so many of these guys. It confirms the skill in college football's second level, and it opens up another pipeline of talent for the Ducks. If Prukop thrives in any way like Adams did, it will be interesting to watch the free agent market of FCS graduate transfer talent explode. (I wouldn't necessarily love that, because while I like the graduate transfer rule, I don't want to see every good player from every small/bad school leaving for somewhere else as a senior.)

I bring this up in the offensive line section because Helfrich didn't stop with Prukop this year. He also secured the commitment of one of FCS' better blockers, Dayton's two-year starting tackle Zac Morgan. Morgan isn't on campus yet, but if he makes it there, he will bring extra depth to what should be a pretty good line. Longtime starting left tackle Tyler Johnstone is gone, as is Matt Hegarty (himself a graduate transfer from Notre Dame), but with Morgan Oregon should have six players with starting experience on the depth chart. And from most accounts, redshirt freshman Jake Hanson is ready to take the center reins for the next four seasons.

Prukop is far less sack-prone than Adams was at the FCS level, and that alone should help Oregon's dismal sack rate. And let's just say it's hard to worry too much about the run blocking, even if short-yardage execution could stand to improve.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.22	47	IsoPPP+	97.0	75
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	45.5%	103	Succ. Rt. +	100.8	65
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	32.4	24	Off. FP+	32.6	18
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.9	105	Redzone S&P+	100.2	71
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	21.9		ACTUAL	22.0	+0.1

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	117	78	65	75
RUSHING	73	108	80	117
PASSING	126	53	54	51
Standard Downs		66	54	75
Passing Downs		83	77	80

Q1 Rk	44	1st Down Rk	85
Q2 Rk	60	2nd Down Rk	92
Q3 Rk	104	3rd Down Rk	67
Q4 Rk	105

6. Hello again, Brady Hoke

When you fail as a head coach, we tend to label you a Bad Coach, ignoring all the unique responsibilities that come with being a head coach and forgetting you were most likely an awesome coordinator before that.

Hoke hasn't been a coordinator since 1982 at Yorktown (Ind.) High. But the Ball State grad spent eight seasons on Lloyd Carr's Michigan coaching staff; in that span, the Wolverines never ranked worse than 27th in scoring defense and ranked 14th or better four times. As San Diego State's head coach, he inherited a defense that had ranked 113th in Def. S&P+ and had it up to 67th in his second year. And lord knows that defense wasn't his problem as Michigan's head coach -- in four seasons, the Wolverines ranked between 12th and 27th in Def. S&P+ each year.

Suffice it to say, Oregon would be fine with 27th. After last year, the Ducks would probably be fine with 50th.

Going back down to coordinator doesn't always work out. But with the personnel, Hoke should probably be able to shore up the pass defense and turn it into a strength again. The run defense might be a different story: Oregon ranked 108th in Rushing S&P+ last year and now replaces three of its four leading tacklers on the line and each of the top four at linebacker.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	92.4	3.16	4.17	42.6%	72.1%	17.2%	104.8	6.1%	6.7%
Rank	94	103	128	109	100	98	53	29	79

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
DeForest Buckner	DE					13	64.0	8.5%	17.0	10.5	0	5	0	0
Torrodney Prevot	DE	6'3, 225	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9238	13	35.0	4.7%	7.5	2.5	0	2	1	0
Alex Balducci	DT					13	28.0	3.7%	7.5	3.5	0	0	0	0
Tui Talia	DE					13	25.5	3.4%	6.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Henry Mondeaux	DE	6'5, 280	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8631	13	19.0	2.5%	6.5	4.0	0	3	0	0
Jalen Jelks	DE	6'6, 268	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8690	11	7.5	1.0%	3.0	3.0	0	1	1	0
Austin Maloata	DT	6'1, 305	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8585	12	4.5	0.6%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Eddie Heard	DE	6'3, 250	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8570	11	4.0	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
T.J. Daniel	DE	6'6, 275	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.7508	10	3.0	0.4%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Rex Manu	NT	6'3, 315	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8523	12	3.0	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Cody Carriger	DE	6'6, 240	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8381
Canton Kaumatule	DT	6'7, 295	So.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9907
Justin Hollins	DE	6'6, 230	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8504
Gary Baker	NT	6'4, 298	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8585
Drayton Carlberg	DT	6'5, 290	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8584
Gus Cumberlander	DE	6'6, 250	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8403
Bryson Young	DE	6'5, 230	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9065
Wayne Kirby	NT	6'3, 320	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8422

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Joe Walker	ILB					12	66.5	8.8%	6.0	2.0	1	1	0	1
Rodney Hardrick	ILB					13	62.0	8.3%	6.0	2.0	1	1	1	0
Tyson Coleman	OLB					13	47.5	6.3%	12.0	4.5	0	3	3	0
Christian French	OLB					8	20.5	2.7%	5.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Danny Mattingly	ILB	6'5, 245	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8898	11	18.5	2.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Johnny Ragin III	OLB	6'3, 225	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8591	12	16.5	2.2%	1.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Jimmie Swain	OLB	6'2, 235	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8929	13	10.5	1.4%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kaulana Apelu	ILB	5'11, 196	So.	NR	NR	13	3.5	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Paris Bostick	OLB	6'1, 220	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8457	2	3.0	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
De'Quan McDowell	OLB	6'1, 203	Sr.	NR	NR	10	2.5	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jonah Moi	OLB	6'4, 250	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8517
A.J. Hotchkins	ILB	5'11, 230	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8798
Lamar Winston	OLB	6'3, 220	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9058
Darrian Franklin	OLB	6'1, 200	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8919
Keith Simms	ILB	6'3, 235	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8831
Troy Dye	OLB	6'4, 210	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8615
Eric Briscoe Jr.	OLB	6'3, 215	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8366

7. A bad time for a rebuild on the front seven

Rebuilding a bad front is less pressure-packed than rebuilding a good one, but Hoke's got a lot of work to do. Oregon didn't provide nearly enough disruption up front -- 98th in stuff rate, 79th in passing downs sack rate -- and now has to replace six of the nine front-seveners who had at least five tackles for loss. DeForest Buckner was an incredible weapon at end, and returning linebackers (at least guys who, as Hoke moves from a 3-4 to a 4-3, are now considered LBs) combined for 1.5 TFLs last year.

Oregon does seem to have some talent at defensive end, where Torrodney Prevot, Henry Mondeaux, and Jalen Jelks combined for 17 TFLs, 9.5 sacks, and six break-ups last year. If Hoke can craft a nice pass rush to go with what really could be an excellent secondary, then if or when Oregon creates passing downs, the Ducks should be able to end drives pretty quickly.

Unfortunately, it's the "creating passing downs" part that could be an issue. Oregon's run defense was a nightmare, and unless sophomore tackle Canton Kaumatule suddenly discovers his ceiling, it's hard to imagine it improving much, at least beyond "progression toward the mean" levels.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Tyree Robinson	S	6'4, 205	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9314	13	51.0	6.8%	1.5	1	3	5	0	0
Reggie Daniels	S	6'1, 205	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9085	11	48.0	6.4%	2.5	0	0	10	0	0
Arrion Springs	CB	5'11, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9595	13	44.0	5.9%	1	1	1	12	2	1
Charles Nelson	S	5'8, 170	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8706	12	41.0	5.5%	1	0	2	4	0	0
Ugo Amadi	CB	5'10, 185	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8784	13	22.5	3.0%	2	0	2	3	0	0
Khalil Oliver	S	6'0, 200	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8191	13	19.0	2.5%	0.5	0	1	1	0	0
Juwaan Williams	S	6'0, 195	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8609	7	17.5	2.3%	1	0	1	1	1	0
Chris Seisay	CB	6'1, 190	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8739	5	16.0	2.1%	1	0	1	1	0	0
Glen Ihenacho	S					11	14.5	1.9%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Fotu Leiato II	S	6'1, 200	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8650	13	5.0	0.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ty Griffin	CB	6'0, 200	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8056	6	3.0	0.4%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Mattrell McGraw	S	5'10, 185	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8834
Malik Lovette	CB	5'11, 205	RSFr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9389
Jihree Stewart	CB	6'0, 182	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8585
Brady Breeze	S	6'1, 200	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9025

8. Youth becomes experience

Eleven Oregon defensive backs recorded at least 3 tackles last year: four true or redshirt freshmen, six sophomores, one junior, and no seniors. It probably shouldn't have been surprising, then, that the secondary struggled mightily in September, allowing a passer rating of 152.7 in the first four games -- 156.9 against EWU, 144.0 against Georgia State, and 181.5 against Utah.

After the Utah game, however, this turned into a pretty solid unit. Over the last nine games, Oregon allowed a 133.7 passer rating. That's not amazing, but considering the upgrade in competition over the last nine games -- a stretch that included Washington State, California, Stanford, USC, and TCU -- that's pretty exciting. There were still plenty of breakdowns, but again: four freshmen, six sophomores. Plus, only five of this group of 11 DBs played in all 13 games. There was enough shuffling that Charles Nelson had to return to the secondary from the receiving corps.

There was one transfer, but 10 players from this batch of 11 return (nine of 10 if we ignore Nelson), including safeties Tyree Robinson and Reggie Daniels and corners Arrion Springs and Ugo Amadi. This foursome combined for seven tackles for loss, six interceptions, and 30 breakups. And junior Chris Seisay is back from injury and likely to start as well. This unit has both depth and experience after lacking both in 2015.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Ian Wheeler	6'0, 205	Jr.	50	39.8	2	15	11	52.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Matt Wogan	6'2, 210	Sr.	98	63.8	62	0	63.3%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Aidan Schneider	6'4, 235	Jr.	67-67	16-18	88.9%	6-6	100.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Charles Nelson	KR	5'8, 170	Jr.	33	26.5	1
Byron Marshall	KR			14	27.5	0
Bralon Addison	PR			12	12.6	1

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	15
Field Goal Efficiency	9
Punt Return Success Rate	12
Kick Return Success Rate	37
Punt Success Rate	88
Kickoff Success Rate	21

9. A field position bailout

Oregon was able to create pretty good field position for its offense despite a lack of defensive efficiency. That's hard to do, but a return game that featured Charles Nelson, Byron Marshall, and Bralon Addison pulled it off. Nelson is the only returnee from that trio, but he's a keeper, and Matt Wogan's kickoffs are deep and efficient as well. Plus, Aidan Schneider is an excellent place-kicker. The only weakness here is in the punting department, but that only means so much when you've got a top-10 offense.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
3-Sep	UC Davis	NR	48.3	100%
10-Sep	Virginia	68	16.6	83%
17-Sep	at Nebraska	26	-0.1	50%
24-Sep	Colorado	82	20.7	88%
1-Oct	at Washington State	48	6.5	65%
8-Oct	Washington	10	1.5	53%
21-Oct	at California	49	6.7	65%
29-Oct	Arizona State	57	14.8	80%
5-Nov	at USC	8	-5.8	37%
12-Nov	Stanford	16	3.2	57%
19-Nov	at Utah	39	3.7	59%
26-Nov	at Oregon State	86	14.4	80%
Projected wins: 8.2

Five-Year F/+ Rk	46.6% (2)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	19 / 19
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	5 / 1.8
2015 TO Luck/Game	+1.1
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	64% (49%, 79%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	8.8 (0.2)

10. A breaking-in period

If Alabama, one of the few programs as consistently awesome as Oregon, were to go 9-4 in 2016, we would put the Tide right back in the top five the next year.

It's not fair to compare anyone to Alabama, but I do find it interesting how quickly we jumped off of the Oregon bandwagon. A bad run defense would prevent the Ducks from title contention, but they get both Stanford and Washington at home, and they might be afforded an opportunity they didn't have last year: breaking a new QB in a little bit.

Adams had to head to Michigan State with a hand injury in his second game. Whoever wins the QB job this year will start with UC Davis and Virginia, and after a trip to Nebraska, the Ducks welcome Colorado to Eugene. At worst, that's a 3-1 start and a chance to find a rhythm before the trickier games begin. Oregon has six games with an S&P+ win probability of at least 65 percent, and five come in the first seven games.