Rutgers has to rebuild after a decade-long slide, but at least it's got athletes

Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year's team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year's roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

1. 10 years is a long time

This fall marks the 10-year anniversary of Rutgers' finest season. The inventors of football had gone through a devastating stretch over the previous 20 years, and it had only gotten worse since joining the Big East.

From 1996-2000, Terry Shea went 11-44, and five of his 11 wins came in one season. Rutgers was behind in every way a program could be behind when Greg Schiano took over in 2001. And after two more dreadful seasons under Schiano, the Scarlet Knights began to put the pieces together. In 2003, they won five games for just the second time in nine years. In 2005, they finished 7-5 and attended their first bowl in 27 years and only their second ever.

In 2006 came two miraculous months. Rutgers won at North Carolina and crushed Illinois. The Knights moved into the AP rankings and survived a rising USF team on the road. Up to 15th in the country, they took down No. 3 Louisville on a Thursday night in Piscataway. Jeremy Ito pointed at the sky cam, fans rushed the field and Rutgers was a top-10 team.

It's almost literally been downhill ever since. The Knights lost two of three to end the 2006 regular season and finished 11-2 and 14th in S&P+. They were 20th in 2007, 32nd in 2008, 76th in 2009 and 87th in 2010. They rebounded in 2011, and Schiano left for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. And under Kyle Flood, they tried desperately to stay above water for three years before drowning in 2015.

Off the field, Rutgers has been a PR mess in recent years, garnering headlines mostly because of an abusive basketball coach and an athletic director who basically said every possible wrong thing from the moment she was hired. And last fall, the football program dealt with constant issues. Flood contacted a faculty member about a player's grades. Five players were arrested and dismissed right before the season began. Star receiver Leonte Carroo was arrested for assault, then had the charges dismissed a month later.

When both Flood and athletic director Julie Hermann were fired in late November, it was a relief to fans and a show of mercy to Flood and Hermann. It was time to hit the reset button, time to attempt big steps to stem what has been an almost decade-long slide.

Schiano, strangely enough, is now Urban Meyer's defensive coordinator at Ohio State. The job came open when Meyer's last DC, Chris Ash, took the Rutgers job.

The 42-year-old Drake alum has methodically worked his way up the coaching ladder, from Drake graduate assistant to Big Ten head coach. He got his big break in 2011 at Wisconsin, getting promoted to defensive coordinator under Bret Bielema. He moved to Arkansas with Bielema for a year, then landed on Meyer's staff as co-coordinator in 2014.

Ash's record as a coordinator is difficult to parse. In two years heading the Wisconsin D, he saw the Badgers' Def. S&P+ first fall from 48th to 56th, then rise to 16th in 2012. In one year at Arkansas, he inherited a unit that ranked 55th and watched it stumble to 78th. In two years at Ohio State, the Buckeyes ranked 11th in 2014 and seventh in 2015.

If there's any trend there, it's that year one sees a reset and year two sees improvement. We're probably going to see something similar at RU. He inherits the bones of a potentially efficient offense and a strong run defense, but the pass defense might have been the worst in FBS last year, and let's face it: After all of last season's negativity, restoring morale, building a healthier culture, etc., might take a little while.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 4-8 | Adj. Record: 3-9 | Final F/+ Rk: 101 | Final S&P+ Rk: 105
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
5-Sep	Norfolk State	N/A	63-13	W	80%	100%	+33.4
12-Sep	Washington State	54	34-37	L	35%	20%	-1.5	-5.0
19-Sep	at Penn State	47	3-28	L	3%	0%	-9.2	-15.0
26-Sep	Kansas	127	27-14	W	65%	99%	+0.3	0.0
10-Oct	Michigan State	9	24-31	L	41%	23%	+13.4	+7.5
17-Oct	at Indiana	61	55-52	W	36%	26%	+23.1	+3.0
24-Oct	Ohio State	3	7-49	L	8%	0%	-19.7	-21.0
31-Oct	at Wisconsin	32	10-48	L	3%	0%	-11.8	-17.5
7-Nov	at Michigan	8	16-49	L	5%	0%	+4.0	-8.0
14-Nov	Nebraska	36	14-31	L	9%	0%	-4.4	-7.5
21-Nov	at Army	108	31-21	W	67%	93%	+8.3	+5.5
28-Nov	Maryland	76	41-46	L	29%	31%	+2.2	-4.0

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	25.7	87	38.1	116
Points Per Game	27.1	78	34.9	104

2. ...and then the bottom dropped out

Despite all that was going on in and around the program in September, Rutgers wasn't that far from playing solid ball early on.

The Scarlet Knights nearly beat a nine-win Washington State team because of Janarion Grant's heroics (he returned a kickoff and a punt for a touchdown in the fourth quarter) but fell via last-second touchdown. They were tied with eventual Big Ten champion Michigan State until another last-minute score. They unleashed an amazing comeback against Indiana, falling behind by 25 points, then scoring 28 points in the final 17 minutes to win, 55-52.

Then, exhaustion apparently set in.

• First 6 games:
  Record: 3-3 | Average percentile performance: 43% (~top 75) | Yards per play: Opp 6.6, RU 6.3 (-0.3)
• Last 6 games:
  Record: 1-5 | Average percentile performance: 21% (~top 100) | Yards per play: Opp 7.1, RU 4.8 (-2.3)

A bad defense got worse, and an exciting offense forgot how to move the ball. Part of that had to do with injury -- Leonte Carroo, back from suspension, missed two games with a high ankle sprain and was ineffective in two more. Oft-injured running back Paul James injured his ankle, too.

Still, this team was just out of gas. Rutgers did beat Army and played a fantastic first 28 minutes against Maryland (up 31-10) before fading (outscored 36-10). The Knights were ready for the offseason and ready for a change.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.21	92	IsoPPP+	102.4	58
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	43.9%	39	Succ. Rt. +	107.3	37
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	32.6	117	Def. FP+	31.5	103
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.4	75	Redzone S&P+	112.0	30
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	20.2		ACTUAL	18	-2.2

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	84	52	37	58
RUSHING	65	58	45	61
PASSING	86	43	37	53
Standard Downs		43	37	49
Passing Downs		81	73	85

Q1 Rk	69	1st Down Rk	72
Q2 Rk	50	2nd Down Rk	63
Q3 Rk	51	3rd Down Rk	40
Q4 Rk	66

3. A Drew Mehringer offense

After seeing the success of the Meyer and Tom Herman offense at Ohio State, with their mobile quarterbacks and diverse pass attacks, it makes sense that Ash would want to bring that style of attack with him to New Jersey: Ash brought in Drew Mehringer, a Herman protégé, as offensive coordinator.

A former Rice quarterback, Mehringer was a student assistant when Herman became Rice's offensive coordinator in 2007, then followed him to Iowa State as a graduate assistant. He was offensive co-coordinator at James Madison in 2014 before becoming Herman's receivers coach at Houston last fall.

One assumes we know where Mehringer wants this offense to go. Houston's offense last year emulated Ohio State's: run-first and up-tempo with a healthy dose of power on standard downs and verticality on passing downs. It's an incredibly fun attack when you've got the right pieces.

Rutgers has ... some of the right pieces. Junior running backs Robert Martin and Josh Hicks are interchangeable and efficient, with a solid 44 percent opportunity rate (percentage of carries gaining at least five yards) between them. Senior receiver Carlton Agudosi is a big-bodied, big-play option in play action. And while Janarion Grant hasn't done much damage as a receiver, he's so dangerous as a return man that you know he's got potential.

The offensive line, meanwhile, had top-50 run-blocking and pass-protection ratings and returns four of five starters.

Neither of two returning quarterbacks -- Chris Laviano and Hayden Rettig -- have shown optimal mobility, however, and outside of Agudosi, there isn't a proven big-play guy on the roster. (Oh, the things Merhinger could have done with Carroo and a healthy James ...) So that will likely limit options in year one. And there are enough senior receivers and linemen that 2017 will present its own set of obstacles, too.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2016 Year

Rivals

247 Comp.

Comp

Att

Yards

TD

INT

Comp Rate

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/ Att.

Chris Laviano

6'2, 214

Jr.

3 stars (5.6)

0.8597

187

307

2247

16

12

60.9%

24

7.3%

6.2

Hayden Rettig

6'3, 215

Jr.

4 stars (6.0)

0.9312

14

25

233

2

0

56.0%

1

3.8%

8.7

Zach Allen (TCU)

6'3, 210

Jr.

3 stars (5.7)

0.8361

Giovanni Rescigno

6'3, 225

So.

2 stars (5.3)

0.7985

Michael Dare

6'5, 215

RSFr.

3 stars (5.7)

0.8584

Tylin Oden

6'5, 175

Fr.

3 stars (5.7)

0.8564

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Robert Martin	RB	5'11, 202	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8681	141	763	6	5.4	4.6	43.3%	2	1
Josh Hicks	RB	5'10, 204	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8625	130	674	4	5.2	4.0	44.6%	3	2
Desmon Peoples (2014)	RB	5'8, 170	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8591	115	447	3	3.9	3.1	33.9%	1	0
Paul James	RB					99	544	5	5.5	6.8	36.4%	0	0
Chris Laviano	QB	6'2, 214	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8597	41	161	0	3.9	2.9	36.6%	7	2
Justin Goodwin	RB	5'11, 200	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8303	11	20	1	1.8	1.8	36.4%	1	0
Janarion Grant	WR	5'10, 176	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8609	8	80	0	10.0	8.3	62.5%	1	0
Hayden Rettig	QB	6'3, 215	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9312	6	7	1	1.2	3.7	33.3%	0	0
Trey Sneed	RB	5'10, 200	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8663

4. More than enough backs

A mobile quarterback gives defenses one more weapon to account for, and even filtering out sacks, Laviano's rushing numbers weren't very impressive last year. But he (or whoever wins the starting job -- it could technically still be TCU transfer Zach Allen, Rettig, redshirt freshman Michael Dare, or incoming freshman Tylin Oden) doesn't have to be Braxton Miller II for the offense to be interesting. He just has to punish defenses overcompensating to stop an efficient set of running backs.

Martin and Hicks averaged 23 carries per game and a decent 5.3 yards per carry, Desmon Peoples is quick and bouncy, though he hasn't been particularly effective in his career to date. And Justin Goodwin has been an athlete without a position in his career; he rushed for 521 yards in 2013 but ended up with more short receptions than carries last fall. Add in incoming freshman Trey Sneed, and you've got a solid running back corps.

Again, though, big plays are a wonderful bailout. They give you margin for error, and it's doubtful Rutgers will have much of that. That means the offense will have to pull off a few more mistake-free plays to put points on the board. Easier said than done.

While losing Carroo hurts, there's still quite a bit of continuity in the passing game. Even without a ton of known explosiveness, that's not a bad thing. Andre Patton is a solid possession weapon, and both Grant and Goodwin have untapped potential.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Leonte Carroo	WR					56	39	809	69.6%	18.1%	14.4	64.3%	60.7%	2.36
Andre Patton	WR	6'3, 205	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8494	56	34	432	60.7%	18.1%	7.7	57.1%	50.0%	1.30
Janarion Grant	WR	5'10, 176	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8609	45	35	352	77.8%	14.6%	7.8	40.0%	37.8%	1.81
Carlton Agudosi	WR	6'6, 217	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8317	33	17	313	51.5%	10.7%	9.5	48.5%	39.4%	2.23
John Tsimis (2014)	WR	5'11, 190	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8377	33	19	188	57.6%	9.8%	5.7	51.5%	N/A	N/A
Charles Scarff	TE	6'5, 248	Jr.	NR	NR	22	14	100	63.6%	7.1%	4.5	40.9%	40.9%	0.96
Justin Goodwin	RB	5'11, 200	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8303	22	13	93	59.1%	7.1%	4.2	36.4%	22.7%	1.56
Matt Flanagan	TE	6'6, 255	Jr.	NR	NR	20	12	126	60.0%	6.5%	6.3	85.0%	60.0%	1.01
Nick Arcidiacono	TE	6'4, 242	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8330	18	12	92	66.7%	5.8%	5.1	83.3%	50.0%	0.87
Paul James	RB					8	6	40	75.0%	2.6%	5.0	62.5%	25.0%	1.85
Sam Bergen	FB					7	5	49	71.4%	2.3%	7.0	100.0%	57.1%	1.20
Robert Martin	RB	5'11, 202	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8681	7	5	17	71.4%	2.3%	2.4	71.4%	28.6%	0.77
Vance Matthews	WR	6'3, 210	Sr.	NR	NR	5	4	38	80.0%	1.6%	7.6	80.0%	60.0%	1.15
Josh Hicks	RB	5'10, 204	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8625	4	4	25	100.0%	1.3%	6.3	100.0%	75.0%	0.82
Dontae Owens	WR	6'0, 194	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8289	1	0	0	0.0%	0.3%	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.00
Julian Pinnix-Odrick	TE/TE	6'5, 275	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8748
Nakia Griffin-Stewart	TE	6'5, 237	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8385
Rashad Blunt	WR	6'1, 191	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8185
K.J. Gray	WR	6'2, 190	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8457

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	104.4	3.01	3.19	41.6%	73.5%	17.8%	138.0	3.0%	7.4%
Rank	46	45	70	31	28	41	31	24	64

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Keith Lumpkin	LT					12	38
Chris Muller	C	6'6, 319	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9164	12	37
J.J. Denman	RT	6'5, 308	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9002	12	12
Dorian Miller	LG	6'2, 292	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8823	11	11
Derrick Nelson	C	6'3, 292	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8222	10	10
Marcus Applefield	RG	6'5, 304	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8377	2	2
Zack Heeman	LT	6'7, 300	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8302	1	1
Tariq Cole	LG	6'6, 314	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8436	0	0
Jack Shutack	OL	6'5, 272	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8439
Zach Venesky	C	6'3, 282	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8438
Jonah Jackson	OL	6'4, 290	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7970
Manny Taylor	OL	6'5, 295	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7951
Nick Krimin	OL	6'6, 285	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8553
Mike Lonsdorf	OL	6'7, 270	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8132

5. A line you can lean on

It really isn't hard to talk yourself into this offense's potential. The Scarlet Knights were pretty efficient last year, and they return two interesting quarterbacks, quite a few nice skill guys, and all but one member of last year's offensive line two-deep.

Rutgers' line stats were better than its overall offensive stats -- 46th in Adj. Line Yards, 58th in Rushing S&P+; 31st in Adj. Sack Rate, 43rd in Passing S&P+. And now the line returns three-year starting center Chris Muller, five others with starting experience, and nearly a full line's worth of redshirt freshmen.

Rutgers struggled with big plays and wasn't able to do much once behind schedule last year. That might not change much this year, but the Knights will have a lot of options on standard downs and a good line to help ensure those options.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.48	123	IsoPPP+	75.3	128
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	46.4%	110	Succ. Rt. +	87.9	110
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	28.3	104	Off. FP+	28.8	92
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.8	100	Redzone S&P+	93.1	97
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	16.6		ACTUAL	16.0	-0.6

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	112	128	110	128
RUSHING	84	98	77	114
PASSING	119	128	121	127
Standard Downs		126	108	127
Passing Downs		118	103	123

Q1 Rk	124	1st Down Rk	127
Q2 Rk	107	2nd Down Rk	125
Q3 Rk	124	3rd Down Rk	124
Q4 Rk	110

6. An Ash-Niemann defense

Ash's choice of Jay Niemann as his defensive coordinator makes sense from a stat perspective. They go way back -- Niemann was Ash's defensive coordinator at Drake -- and in roundabout ways, they seem to express the same philosophy on defense: attack the run on standard downs and the pass on passing downs. Try to make opponents go unorthodox.

Against Ohio State and its killer secondary, opponents had to continue leaning on the run. Niemann's NIU defenses, meanwhile, were speedy and undersized, and opponents tended to go off script, throwing more than normal on standard downs and running more on passing downs.

Rutgers is its own unique case. With star tackle Darius Hamilton rejoining an experienced line after missing 2015 with injury, the line could be a legitimate strength. The linebacking corps is starting over, but linebackers' jobs will be pretty easy considering the blockers eaten up by Hamilton, fellow tackles Sebastian Joseph and Kevin Wilkins, and ends Quanzell Lambert and Kemoko Turay.

The pass defense, on the other hand, has less to like. That's the most diplomatic way to put it.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	101.1	2.79	3.34	34.7%	66.0%	23.7%	69.9	3.0%	5.1%
Rank	55	48	76	28	65	19	110	110	104

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Darius Hamilton (2014)	DT	6'3, 283	Sr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9881	13	38.5	5.3%	11.5	6.0	0	0	1	0
Quanzell Lambert	DE	6'1, 257	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9039	12	32.5	5.0%	7.5	2.5	0	2	0	0
Julian Pinnix-Odrick	DT/TE	6'5, 275	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8748	12	26.5	4.1%	3.0	1.0	0	3	2	0
Darnell Davis, Jr.	DE	6'2, 250	Jr.	NR	NR	12	19.5	3.0%	3.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Sebastian Joseph	NT	6'4, 295	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8131	12	18.5	2.9%	5.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Djwany Mera	DE					12	16.5	2.6%	1.5	0.0	0	0	1	0
Kevin Wilkins	NT	6'2, 295	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8344	12	11.0	1.7%	4.5	0.5	1	0	0	0
Kemoko Turay	DE	6'5, 240	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8085	11	8.5	1.3%	3.0	2.0	0	2	0	1
Jimmy Hogan	DE	6'4, 255	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8224	10	3.5	0.5%	2.5	1.5	0	0	0	0
Jon Bateky	DT	6'3, 270	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8296	10	3.5	0.5%	1.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Myles Nash	DE	6'5, 250	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8622
Eric Wiafe	DT	6'5, 290	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8208
Kamaal Seymour	DT	6'6, 297	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8392
Willington Previlon	DT	6'5, 271	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8221
Ron'Dell Carter	DE	6'2, 268	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8091

7. Welcome back, Darius!

When Rutgers broke through in 2006, the Scarlet Knights ranked fifth in Def. S&P+ and featured three linemen with at least 13 tackles for loss (Eric Foster, Jamaal Westerman, Ramel Meekins). A sturdy, active defensive front has powered a few good RU defenses through the years (11th in 2011, 13th in 2012).

The line, however, struggled mightily in 2014, and the defense followed suit. And while it was decent against the run in 2015, the pass rush completely fell apart. Hamilton missed the season with a knee injury, and Turay, a 2014 breakout star in the pass-rushing department, battled injury in fall camp and never got on track. He recorded 8.5 TFLs and 7.5 sacks as a freshman, but he managed only 3 and 2 in 2015.

If Hamilton and Turay are healthy, the pass rush improves by default, and the line gets quite a bit deeper. There probably isn't 2006- or 2012-caliber play here, but it appears the line will be the closest thing to a defensive strength. Linebacker is a concern -- Quentin Gause was Rutgers' best run defender and the primary reason why the Knights were 19th in stuff rate -- but the line (literally) comes first.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Steve Longa	WLB					11	96.5	15.0%	5.0	2.0	0	2	2	0
Quentin Gause	SLB					12	78.0	12.1%	12.0	1.0	0	2	0	0
Kaiwan Lewis	MLB					12	56.0	8.7%	4.0	0.0	2	0	0	0
Deonte Roberts	WLB	6'1, 234	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8119	12	8.5	1.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Isaiah Johnson	MLB	6'1, 231	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7923	12	5.5	0.9%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Trevor Morris	LB	6'1, 208	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7923	12	4.5	0.7%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kevin Marquez	SLB	6'1, 243	Sr.	NR	NR	12	3.0	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Eric Margolis	SLB	6'3, 231	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	11	2.5	0.4%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Najee Clayton	LB	6'1, 217	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8610	6	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0	0	0	0	0
Greg Jones	LB	6'0, 204	Sr.	NR	NR
T.J. Taylor	SLB	6'3, 225	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.7993
Brandon Russell	LB	6'0, 234	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7919
Solomon Manning	LB	6'2, 200	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8577
Elorm Lumor	LB	6'3, 210	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8478
Jonathan Pollock	LB	5'11, 220	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8385

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Isaiah Wharton	CB	6'1, 204	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7683	12	47.5	7.4%	3	0	1	10	0	0
Anthony Cioffi	FS	6'0, 200	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8059	11	41.5	6.4%	3.5	1.5	4	3	0	0
Kiy Hester	SS	6'0, 202	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9054	10	30.5	4.7%	1.5	0	1	5	0	0
Blessuan Austin	CB	6'1, 195	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8306	11	30.0	4.7%	2	0	1	4	1	0
Saquan Hampton	FS	6'1, 199	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8344	12	26.0	4.0%	1	0	1	2	0	0
Andre Hunt	SS	6'0, 200	Jr.	NR	NR	12	21.5	3.3%	2.5	1	1	2	0	0
Davon Jacobs	SS					4	15.0	2.3%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Jarius Adams	CB	5'10, 182	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8295	10	10.5	1.6%	1	0	0	2	0	0
Ronnie James	CB	6'0, 196	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8211	4	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ross Taylor-Douglas (Michigan)	DB	5'11, 190	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8811
Isaiah Wharton	CB	6'1, 204	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7683
Sandy Anya	CB	5'10, 188	Jr.	NR	NR
Charles Snorweah	CB	5'10, 174	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8336
Kobe Marfo	CB	5'11, 175	Jr.	NR	0.8400

9. Almost everybody's back ... for better or worse

Last September's arrests wiped out any possible experience in the secondary, and you see the effects above. Four of the top five tacklers in the secondary were freshmen, the sixth was a sophomore, and two more freshmen saw time in the rotation. Even if all of those freshmen were blue-chippers, that would have resulted in breakdowns and up-and-down play. They were not all blue-chippers.

With no pass rush to fear, opponents were able to do simply nasty things to the Rutgers pass defense. They completed 67 percent of their passes on first down and 72 percent on second. Things improved at least a little bit on passing downs, but only so much.

In all, Rutgers allowed 58 passes of 20-plus yards, fifth-worst in FBS and worst among teams that only played 12 games. The Scarlet Knights ranked 128th in IsoPPP+ allowed, 128th in Passing S&P+, 127th in First Down S&P+, and 126th in Standard Downs S&P+. And that was with a semi-competent run defense.

Among the car crashes and massive breakdowns, however, these DBs did make quite a few plays on the ball. It came at too much of an expense, but each of the top six DBs defensed at least three passes, and corner Isaiah Wharton defensed 11. Four DBs also made at least two tackles for loss.

This is a pretty athletic unit, especially when you add in Michigan graduate transfer Ross Taylor-Douglas. If it sticks together, it could actually do quite a bit of damage. But when you get burned that much in one year, it's hard to imagine you improving too much the next. If Rutgers can get its pass rush back in order and raise its Passing S&P+ ranking back up to double digits, that's a good sign of things to come in 2017. Baby steps first, though.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Joey Roth			58	40.0	6	21	9	51.7%
Tim Gleeson (2014)	6'2, 200	Sr.	32	40.3	2	6	11	53.1%
Michael Cintron	6'3, 219	So.	3	51.0	0	0	0	0.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Chris Gough			55	59.6	11	5	20.0%
Kyle Federico			7	47.9	0	1	0.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Kyle Federico			35-38	9-11	81.8%	3-5	60.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Janarion Grant	KR	5'10, 176	Sr.	40	24.6	3
Justin Goodwin	KR	5'11, 200	Sr.	4	15.3	0
Janarion Grant	PR	5'10, 176	Sr.	12	13.9	1

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	86
Field Goal Efficiency	70
Punt Return Success Rate	12
Kick Return Success Rate	30
Punt Success Rate	102
Kickoff Success Rate	103

9. At least you've got Janarion

Rutgers was between mediocre and bad in the kicks-and-coverage department last season and now must break in new legs. Senior punter Tim Gleeson is back after dealing with a back injury, but the placekicker will be brand new.

But Rutgers still has Janarion Grant. "Dynamic" feels like an understatement in describing someone who, over three years, has averaged 24.8 yards per kick return (with four touchdowns) and 10.5 yards per punt return (with two touchdowns). He can hide a bunch of defensive efficiency issues, and he's back for one more go-round.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
3-Sep	at Washington	10	-23.6	9%
10-Sep	Howard	NR	43.7	99%
17-Sep	New Mexico	102	8.8	69%
24-Sep	Iowa	38	-7.7	33%
1-Oct	at Ohio State	14	-22.9	9%
8-Oct	Michigan	6	-18.9	14%
15-Oct	Illinois	76	0.0	50%
22-Oct	at Minnesota	42	-13.6	22%
5-Nov	Indiana	56	-3.5	42%
12-Nov	at Michigan State	22	-20.1	12%
19-Nov	Penn State	28	-10.9	27%
26-Nov	at Maryland	62	-9.5	29%
Projected wins: 4.1

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-8.7% (76)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	60 / 53
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	-2 / -3.5
2015 TO Luck/Game	+0.6
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	85% (81%, 90%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	3.9 (0.1)

10. There's potential here

Honestly, if you look at the sum of the parts, there's quite a bit to like about the Rutgers roster. Chris Laviano completed 61 percent of his passes as a sophomore, and his backup (Rettig) is a former blue-chipper. There are two steady running backs and two more with lots of potential. There are two or three steady receivers and two more with potential. Offensive line should be a strength, and defensive line might be, too.

The less said about the defensive back seven, the better, but that's still a good base of talent considering "new coach inherits demoralized, 4-8 roster" situation.

Still, the offensive personnel isn't a perfect match for the new offensive style, and the back seven of the defense might indeed still be quite poor. And with a schedule that features four top-40 opponents and trips to Washington and Ohio State in the first six weeks, those weaknesses will probably dig the Scarlet Knights a pretty big early-season hole.

For Rutgers, 2016 is about positivity and progress. Find the former, create the latter. There are quite a few seniors on this team, and it's conceivable that Ash might struggle for a couple of years before he gets the right class and unit balance. But if he can in the meantime simply establish a nice offensive identity and begin rebuilding a once-proud defense, that's something.