Can DJ Durkin take Maryland from a sleeping giant to an actual giant?

Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year's team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year's roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

1. On sleeping giants

Sunday pop quiz: What program do you consider the biggest potential sleeping giant in college football?

— Bill Connelly (@SBN_BillC) July 10, 2016

On Twitter this past weekend, I asked people about sleeping giants, and it resulted in two conclusions I kind of expected:

1. Everybody's a sleeping giant. Nearly half of FBS (54 of 128 teams) got at least one vote. We all think our program is just one hire away from greatness. We might be right if that hire is Bill Snyder-caliber. But most aren't. Still, this is the college football dream.

2. North Carolina and Maryland got the most votes. We all have our definition of "sleeping giants," and mine doesn't include teams that have actually been giants recently. (So no Miami, no Texas, no Michigan, etc.) We know they can be giants, and to me the "sleeping giants" moniker is about who else could become one.

Because of geography and shoe money, Maryland fans can talk themselves into having a solid "sleeping giant" case. The Terrapins are located near all sorts of top-tier talent in Pennsylvania, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, etc. It's the talent that Penn State, Virginia Tech, and others have brought in while winning tons of games in recent decades. It rarely chooses the Terrapins. But if it did...

Meanwhile, Maryland has been called the "next Oregon" for a while, because Under Armour CEO Kevin Plank is a Maryland grad and one-time Maryland walk-on. The Terps have become the UA guinea pig in the same way that Oregon has for Nike.

The main difference between Oregon and Maryland: Oregon has made four good coaching hires in a row. Maryland's current streak stands at zero.

Ralph Friedgen wasn't sexy enough, basically. He wasn't the kind of ace recruiter or dynamic presence that Maryland's new administration envisioned leading the Terps through an Under Armour age. You can disagree with that sentiment -- it certainly felt off-putting to watch Maryland dump a coach while he was going 9-4 at Maryland, but it's a sentiment. And if the school had made a good replacement hire, then it would have been alright.

Randy Edsall wasn't a terrible hire. He recruited reasonably well (considering the results, anyway), and despite getting obliterated by injury, he managed to take Maryland to bowls in his third and fourth seasons in charge. But he seemed to be laying groundwork on which he could never quite capitalize. And if you're going to replace a solid coach because he didn't recruit well enough or create a high enough ceiling, then you should bring in someone who actually can.

Regardless, the five-year Edsall experiment is over. And in theory, Maryland might have just made the high-ceiling hire it meant to make in 2011.

DJ Durkin has one hell of a pedigree at this point. A graduate assistant on Urban Meyer's Bowling Green teams, he ended up catching a big break by landing on Jim Harbaugh's Stanford staff (as defensive ends coach and special teams coordinator) in 2007. Harbaugh sought to build a staff of young, hungry competitors, and Durkin fit the bill.

After three years at Stanford, Durkin moved east to Florida to join Meyer's staff in 2010, then stayed aboard when Will Muschamp took over. He spent 2013-14 as UF's defensive coordinator, then took over as Harbaugh's DC in 2015 at Michigan.

Durkin has extensive experience under both of the marquee coaching names in the Big Ten East, and he has put together a fascinating staff, with a layer of seasoned hands (former Virginia head coach Mike London, former Ball State head coach Pete Lembo, former Stanford assistant Andy Buh, 35-year offensive line coach Dave Borbely) and a layer of young-and-hungries.

Early on, the staff is making a splash: Per the 247Sports Composite, the Terps currently have one five-star commitment and four four-stars, and despite having only 11 commits, they are 20th in the summer recruiting rankings.

Now, one of the reasons I only pay marginal attention to recruiting at this stage in the cycle is that a) commitments are obviously not binding just yet, and b) it takes more than one good recruiting class to see results. There's a tricky balance here -- building a winner at a program like Maryland requires a coaching staff that can both recruit and capitalize on the talent at hand while that recruiting is ongoing. If you don't win quickly, you won't continue to recruit well. Just ask Mark Stoops at Kentucky, who nailed the first year or two on the job but is just 12-24 after three years.

Still, in building this staff the way he did, Durkin clearly understands that balance. His assistants are a mix of young and old, tactically proven and experimental. Durkin is trying to stick the landing. Maybe he won't; maybe this chemistry experiment will explode. (They often do.) Or maybe he is exactly the hire Maryland was looking for in the quest to become the New Oregon.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 3-9 | Adj. Record: 6-6 | Final F/+ Rk: 76 | Final S&P+ Rk: 65
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
5-Sep	Richmond	N/A	50-21	W	92%	100%	+15.1
12-Sep	Bowling Green	25	27-48	L	51%	7%	-30.7	-28.5
19-Sep	South Florida	44	35-17	W	95%	97%	+5.2	+11.0
26-Sep	at West Virginia	31	6-45	L	11%	0%	-19.8	-22.0
3-Oct	Michigan	8	0-28	L	15%	0%	-12.2	-12.0
10-Oct	at Ohio State	3	28-49	L	46%	1%	-3.1	+12.0
24-Oct	vs. Penn State	47	30-31	L	68%	45%	+13.8	+5.5
31-Oct	at Iowa	38	15-31	L	34%	1%	+5.6	+1.0
7-Nov	Wisconsin	32	24-31	L	81%	58%	+7.2	+4.5
14-Nov	at Michigan State	9	7-24	L	29%	1%	-3.4	-2.0
21-Nov	Indiana	61	28-47	L	36%	6%	-19.9	-21.5
28-Nov	at Rutgers	101	46-41	W	66%	69%	-2.2	+4.0

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	27.1	81	25.3	48
Points Per Game	24.7	95	34.4	103

2. Rolling a boulder up a hill

Edsall could see the light at the end of the tunnel. He had scored a commitment from blue-chip quarterback Dwayne Haskins, and Haskins was busy trying to help recruit other big-name future Turtles. All Edsall had to do was win just enough to keep his job until 2016, then watch a new set of high-ceiling youngsters begin to take over the program.

The season started off reasonably well. Maryland looked the part in disposing of Richmond and a USF team that was much better than we realized at the time; a loss to Bowling Green made it harder to craft a path to six wins, but if they kept playing like they did against USF, a few more wins would probably show up.

One more win showed up.

• First 3 games: Record: 2-1 | Average percentile performance: 79% (~top 25)
• Next 3 games: Record: 0-3 | Average percentile performance: 24% (~top 95)
• Next 3 games: Record: 0-3 | Average percentile performance: 61% (~top 50)
• Last 3 games: Record: 1-2 | Average percentile performance: 44% (~top 70)

The schedule handed Maryland consecutive games against West Virginia (which was smoking hot at the time), Michigan, and Ohio State. The Terps got outscored, 122-34, and Edsall was canned.

Maryland bounced back with solid (and ultimately unsuccessful) showings against Penn State and Wisconsin; then came another couple of duds against Michigan State and Indiana. The season was like pushing a boulder up a hill -- making a little bit of progress, tripping and getting flattened, then starting the process all over again.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.42	5	IsoPPP+	104.1	53
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	35.5%	116	Succ. Rt. +	96.0	89
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	33.8	121	Def. FP+	30.7	92
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	3.9	112	Redzone S&P+	92.0	105
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	25.3		ACTUAL	36	+10.7

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	87	72	89	53
RUSHING	31	14	43	6
PASSING	109	110	112	104
Standard Downs		61	80	54
Passing Downs		72	92	57

Q1 Rk	34	1st Down Rk	64
Q2 Rk	114	2nd Down Rk	94
Q3 Rk	77	3rd Down Rk	41
Q4 Rk	62

3. A Walt Bell offense

Credit Maryland quarterbacks for one thing: They threw the softest, most catchable interceptions in the country last year. Perry Hills and Caleb Rowe combined for an astounding 28 interceptions in only 345 passes last year. Whereas most quarterbacks end up with an interception rate somewhere between about 1.5 and four percent, theirs was 8.1 percent.

That's really hard to do ... unintentionally, at least. And it's probably unsustainable. Whereas interceptions typically make up about 21-23 percent of all passes defensed (INTs + breakups), for Maryland it was 39 percent. Having 75 passes defensed is far too many, but it probably should have resulted in about 17 interceptions, not the team total of 29. This was the primary reason why UMD's turnover luck (minus-4.6 points per game) was the second-worst in the country.

Maryland was unlucky, but the Terps also shouldn't have been throwing so damn much. They had one of the best, most explosive run games in the country: Not including sacks, Hills and Rowe combined to average 7.1 yards per carry, while running backs Brandon Ross, Wes Brown, and Ty Johnson averaged 5.9. Meanwhile, even ignoring the INTs, Hills/Rowe averaged 4.9 yards per pass attempt. And yet, Maryland threw more frequently than the national average on standard downs. Even at the time, this didn't make sense.

That's probably not a mistake new offensive coordinator Walt Bell is going to make. He spent the last two years as Arkansas State's offensive coordinator, and let's just say that ASU's offensive approach in 2015 would have fit Maryland's personnel quite a bit better. The Red Wolves ran 68 percent of the time on standard downs and 42 percent of the time on passing downs. They established a high tempo and a strong, exciting, dual-threat run game. They couldn't really pass any better than Maryland, but they also played to their strengths.

You do still have to pass occasionally, and the fact that neither Hills nor Rowe can do it particularly well could open the door for a newcomer this fall (incoming freshman Tyrrell Pigrome certainly fits the bill athletically, though he might not be any better with his arm). But even if Maryland is doomed to struggle through the air again in 2016, Bell will still probably do a better job of riding with the strengths the Terps have.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Perry Hills	6'2, 210	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8540	90	180	1001	8	13	50.0%	17	8.6%	4.6
Caleb Rowe	6'3, 220	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8475	76	165	894	6	15	46.1%	0	0.0%	5.4
Shane Cockerille					11	23	82	0	0	47.8%	1	4.2%	3.2
Daxx Garman					6	18	115	1	1	33.3%	5	21.7%	3.6
Gage Shaffer	6'7, 212	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8414
Tyrrell Pigrome	5'11, 190	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8477
Max Bortenschlager	6'3, 185	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8113

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Brandon Ross	RB					152	956	10	6.3	9.5	35.5%	4	3
Perry Hills	QB	6'2, 210	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8540	92	639	3	6.9	7.2	47.8%	5	2
Wes Brown	RB	6'0, 210	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9374	71	317	3	4.5	3.4	38.0%	1	1
Trey Edmunds (Virginia Tech)	RB	6'2, 223	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8898	47	185	3	3.9	4.7	29.8%	0	0
Ty Johnson	RB	5'10, 184	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8569	35	250	3	7.1	9.0	40.0%	0	0
Caleb Rowe	QB	6'3, 220	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8475	20	158	0	7.9	8.7	55.0%	3	0
Shane Cockerille	QB/FB					15	43	0	2.9	2.3	33.3%	0	0
William Likely	DB	5'7, 175	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8856	11	93	0	8.5	8.6	54.5%	3	1
Kenneth Goins Jr.	FB	5'9, 233	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8471	9	60	1	6.7	18.1	22.2%	0	0
Daxx Garman	QB					6	20	0	3.3	1.0	33.3%	0	0
Laderrien Wilson	RB	5'11, 215	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8387
Jake Funk	RB	5'11, 197	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8282
Tyrek Tisdale	RB	6'1, 199	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8590

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Teldrick Morgan (NMSU)	WR	6'0, 195	Sr.	NR	NR	75	45	551	60.0%	17.7%	7.3	49.3%	36.0%	1.92
Levern Jacobs	WR	5'11, 188	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8089	62	35	425	56.5%	17.7%	6.9	64.5%	38.7%	1.64
Taivon Jacobs	WR	5'9, 165	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8444	49	21	264	42.9%	14.0%	5.4	55.1%	32.7%	1.59
D.J. Moore	WR	5'11, 205	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8872	48	25	357	52.1%	13.7%	7.4	56.3%	41.7%	1.74
Amba Etta-Tawo	WR					39	20	216	51.3%	11.1%	5.5	59.0%	43.6%	1.02
Avery Edwards	TE	6'4, 234	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8625	28	14	115	50.0%	8.0%	4.1	39.3%	25.0%	1.51
Jahrvis Davenport	WR	5'9, 193	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8311	27	11	154	40.7%	7.7%	5.7	63.0%	33.3%	1.72
Malcolm Culmer	WR	5'11, 185	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8207	25	15	221	60.0%	7.1%	8.8	68.0%	52.0%	1.58
Wes Brown	RB	6'0, 210	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9374	22	13	89	59.1%	6.3%	4.0	50.0%	22.7%	1.53
DeAndre Lane	WR	5'7, 175	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7820	11	9	152	81.8%	3.1%	13.8	72.7%	63.6%	2.05
Brandon Ross	RB					10	5	17	50.0%	2.8%	1.7	60.0%	20.0%	0.60
William Likely	DB	5'7, 175	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8856	7	5	17	71.4%	2.0%	2.4	85.7%	28.6%	0.86
P.J. Gallo	TE					6	2	9	33.3%	1.7%	1.5	66.7%	16.7%	0.76
Kenneth Goins Jr.	FB	5'9, 233	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8471	5	2	14	40.0%	1.4%	2.8	60.0%	40.0%	0.42
Derrick Hayward	TE	6'5, 240	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8458	4	2	10	50.0%	1.1%	2.5	75.0%	0.0%	0.00
Andrew Isaacs	TE	6'2, 240	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8621
Michael Cornwell	WR	6'2, 215	So.	NR	NR
Tino Ellis	WR	6'1, 185	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9027
DJ Turner	WR	5'9, 196	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8829

4. Unique shapes and sizes

Losing Ross hurts; he wasn't amazingly efficient, but he was one of the country's more explosive backs when he found open-field opportunities. Senior Wes Brown, meanwhile, has shown nothing close to Ross' jets.

But between Brown and Virginia Tech graduate transfer Trey Edmunds, Maryland should be able to find a solid efficiency option to complement the explosive QB of choice, and though he's on the small side, sophomore Ty Johnson could eventually turn into a well-rounded back. He didn't get many opportunities in 2015, but in 12 carries in the first and last games of the year, he gained a combined 170 yards. Plus, Maryland signed three freshman backs in February. The Terps have more than enough backs.

The receiving corps is pretty well-manned, too, though obviously having a quarterback to get them the ball could still be an issue. The Jacobs brothers (Levern and Taivon) combined for 689 receiving yards last year, and Levern averaged a healthy 9 yards per target back in 2013. Plus, former four-star recruit D.J. Moore is now a sophomore, two more four-star freshmen (Tino Ellis and DJ Turner) join the mix, and Maryland recently added another graduate transfer, NMSU's leading receiver Teldrick Morgan.

Big running backs, little receivers ... this skill corps is unique and could be pretty effective in the right hands.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	110.8	2.93	3.48	40.2%	51.7%	21.1%	105.4	3.8%	9.5%
Rank	22	59	40	48	124	89	52	40	96

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Michael Dunn	LT	6'5, 312	Sr.	NR	NR	12	38
Ryan Doyle	LG					12	35
Andrew Zeller	RG					12	32
Evan Mulrooney	C					12	17
Damian Prince	RT	6'3, 328	So.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9858	6	6
Mike Minter	LG	6'3, 305	Jr.	NR	NR	3	3
Maurice Shelton	RG	6'3, 304	Sr.	NR	NR	2	2
Stephen Grommer	C					1	1
JaJuan Dulaney	LG	6'3, 302	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8432	0	0
Brendan Moore	C	6'3, 295	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8210	0	0
Derwin Gray	RT	6'5, 328	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9250	0	0
Quarvez Boulware	LG	6'2, 304	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9039
EJ Donahue	OL	6'3, 320	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8867
Ellis McKennie	OL	6'3, 315	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8358
Will McClain	LT	6'5, 305	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8292
Terrance Davis	OL	6'3, 320	Fr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9628
Richard Merritt	OL	6'4, 338	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8969

5. The line will be fantastic ... at some point

From a pure star ratings perspective, only blue-bloods have recruited as well as Maryland up front. The Terps will boast one former five-star recruit and four former four-stars this fall. The problem: this quintet is made up of two sophomores, a redshirt freshmen, and two true freshmen. Only one of the five has ever started a game (five-star Damian Prince started half the year at right tackle in 2015). Meanwhile, of the 49 career starts returning on this line, 43 belong to former walk-ons.

I have absolutely no idea what to make of this line. It did pretty well last year despite the walk-ons, ranking 22nd in Adj. Line Yards (though dismal in short-yardage) and 52nd in Adj. Sack Rate. But three starters are gone, and the two-deep is going to be flush with redshirt freshmen and/or true freshmen. The ceiling is high, but most of the ceiling comes from guys who might still be too young to reach that ceiling.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.29	84	IsoPPP+	100.5	65
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	42.7%	79	Succ. Rt. +	108.1	39
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	30.5	51	Off. FP+	33.7	7
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.6	79	Redzone S&P+	105.6	44
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	19.3		ACTUAL	18.0	-1.3

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	91	57	39	65
RUSHING	54	33	37	28
PASSING	104	75	48	85
Standard Downs		64	51	73
Passing Downs		31	16	46

Q1 Rk	76	1st Down Rk	57
Q2 Rk	54	2nd Down Rk	66
Q3 Rk	48	3rd Down Rk	42
Q4 Rk	44

6. A Durkin-Buh defense

Durkin and Andy Buh were together on Harbaugh's original Stanford coaching staff. When Durkin left for Florida, Buh left to take the Nevada defensive coordinator job; Nevada ranked 107th in Def. S&P+ the year before he arrived and was 114th the year after he left, but in his two years in Reno, the Wolf Pack ranked 65th and 67th.

After a year at Wisconsin, Buh got what seemed to be a big break by getting the Cal defensive coordinator job. But an already young Cal defense got obliterated by injury and crumbled to 114th in Def. S&P+. He was reassigned in 2014, then left, then eventually took a job as a position assistant at Kentucky last year.

Buh wasn't Durkin's first choice as defensive coordinator, but when Scott Shafer (another Stanford '07er) stepped down for personal reasons after just a few weeks on the job, Durkin sought out a steady hand.

Buh's résumé took a hit with the Cal experience, but he's still been excellent for two of his three years as a defensive coordinator, and he probably has an excellent understanding of the attacking principles Durkin pursues.

Durkin wants you to go off-script, and until the defensive line gave out in November, his 2015 Michigan defense was a work of art. To move the ball, opponents had to throw on standard downs, run on passing downs, and hope to crack a big play at some point. And he has the pieces of what could be an excellent run defense.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	109.6	2.88	2.95	38.4%	61.0%	20.2%	137.6	4.9%	11.8%
Rank	34	67	43	68	35	60	14	70	10

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Yannick Ngakoue	DE					12	31.5	4.4%	14.5	13.0	0	1	1	0
Quinton Jefferson	DT					12	31.0	4.4%	12.5	6.5	1	1	1	0
Roman Braglio	DE	6'2, 262	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8485	11	27.5	3.9%	5.5	3.0	0	1	1	1
Azubuike Ukandu	DT	6'0, 307	Sr.	NR	NR	11	19.5	2.7%	7.0	3.0	0	0	1	0
Jesse Aniebonam	DE	6'3, 260	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9404	12	18.5	2.6%	6.5	3.5	0	1	0	0
Kingsley Opara	DT	6'3, 305	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8417	11	12.0	1.7%	0.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Chandler Burkett	DE	6'3, 240	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8058	8	6.0	0.8%	2.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Cavon Walker	DE	6'2, 260	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8209	10	6.0	0.8%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
David Shaw	DT	6'4, 307	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7984	4	5.0	0.7%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Brett Kulka	DE	6'4, 254	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7830	11	3.0	0.4%	1.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Malik Jones	DT	6'4, 275	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8126
Oseh Saine	DT	6'2, 286	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8700
Keiron Howard	DT	6'3, 289	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8472
Adam McLean	DT	6'2, 313	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9419

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jermaine Carter, Jr.	ILB	6'0, 240	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8185	12	84.5	11.9%	14.0	0.0	0	3	0	0
Jalen Brooks	OLB	6'1, 232	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8156	12	48.0	6.8%	1.0	0.0	2	1	1	0
Avery Thompson	OLB					12	30.0	4.2%	0.5	0.0	0	2	0	0
Brett Zanotto	OLB	5'10, 220	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8407	10	18.0	2.5%	1.0	0.5	0	0	0	0
Jefferson Ashiru	OLB					5	18.0	2.5%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Denzel Conyers	OLB	6'3, 212	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8430	9	12.0	1.7%	2.0	1.0	0	3	1	0
Tyler Burke	ILB	6'3, 245	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8363	12	7.0	1.0%	1.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Mbi Tanyi	OLB	6'1, 280	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8270	7	4.0	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Shane Cockerille	OLB	6'2, 235	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8659
Gus Little	ILB	6'2, 235	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8489
Isaiah Davis	ILB	6'1, 225	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8215
Brett Shepherd	LB	6'4, 215	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8423

7. Run defense should be a strength

In Jermaine Carter Jr., Maryland has one of the only players in the country to log 14 non-sack tackles for loss last year. The Terps have good size in the middle -- Azubuike Ukandu, Kingsley Opara, David Shaw, and incoming four-star freshman Adam McLean all top 300 pounds -- and a couple of ends (Roman Braglio and Jesse Aniebonam) who might thrive in larger roles. Maryland ranked 33rd in Rushing S&P+ last year and returns a lot of the reasons for that.

The main issue with the front seven: Only two players recorded at least four sacks, and they're both gone. Yannick Ngakoue and Quinton Jefferson were outstanding (27 TFLs, 19.5 sacks) and were the primary reasons why Maryland was 14th in Adj. Sack Rate. Braglio, Aniebonam, and junior Chandler Burkett could get there, but Ngakoue and Jefferson were there. And this was a pretty awful pass defense even with a great pass rush.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Sean Davis	CB					12	79.0	11.1%	5.5	1	3	3	5	0
Anthony Nixon	S					12	68.5	9.6%	4.5	0	3	4	1	0
A.J. Hendy	S					12	62.0	8.7%	1	0	0	4	0	0
Will Likely	CB	5'7, 175	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8856	11	39.5	5.6%	4	0	0	11	3	0
Alvin Hill	CB	6'0, 200	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8125	12	15.5	2.2%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Darnell Savage, Jr.	CB	5'10, 192	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8435	10	11.5	1.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jarrett Ross	S	5'9, 198	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8382	11	9.5	1.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Josh Woods	S	6'1, 202	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8495	6	3.0	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
J.T. Ventura	CB	6'1, 205	Jr.	NR	NR	4	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Denzel Conyers	S	6'3, 212	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8430
Tehuti Miles	S	5'10, 210	Sr.	NR	NR
Milan Collins	S	6'1, 200	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8354
Antwaine Carter	CB	6'1, 190	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7556
Lorenzo Harrison	CB	5'8, 188	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8486
Antwaine Richardson	CB	6'0, 168	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8472
Elijah Daniels	S	6'0, 186	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8466

8. Pass defense probably won't be a strength

The good news, as it were: There are quite a few seniors in the secondary. The level of experience is solid.

The bad news: Most of these seniors weren't good enough to see the field for a bad secondary last year. Edsall and company basically played four DBs last year, with a couple of other corners in occasional reserve. And now three of the four regulars are gone.

Maryland does have Will Likely, a wonderful play-maker, for one more year. Over the last two years, he has compiled eight tackles for loss, six interceptions, 20 break-ups, and four forced fumbles. But in terms of known quantities, that's about it. Jarrett Ross is the most seasoned returning safety, and he's made 12.5 tackles over the last two years. Even if we kindly assume an upgrade in defensive coaching, it's going to be hard for this pass defense to improve too much, especially if the pass rush wavers.

[Update: Former Florida corner J.C. Jackson transferred to Maryland after a year at junior college. He was a four-star recruit, and seems to have locked down a starting spot in camp.]

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Nicolas Pritchard	5'10, 220	So.	55	38.2	1	18	11	52.7%
Brad Craddock			9	36.4	1	1	6	77.8%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Brad Craddock			38	62.6	14	0	36.8%
Adam Greene	5'11, 185	Jr.	19	55.8	2	2	10.5%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Brad Craddock			22-23	6-7	85.7%	2-3	66.7%
Adam Greene	5'11, 185	Jr.	11-11	2-3	66.7%	1-2	50.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
William Likely	KR	5'7, 175	Sr.	35	22.5	1
Ty Johnson	KR	5'10, 184	So.	5	25.0	0
William Likely	PR	5'7, 175	Sr.	23	18.2	2
Ty Johnson	PR	5'10, 184	So.	3	13.7	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	114
Field Goal Efficiency	82
Punt Return Success Rate	19
Kick Return Success Rate	77
Punt Success Rate	124
Kickoff Success Rate	93

9. Freshman punters become sophomore punters

Likely is also a star in the return game, but even with him, Maryland's special teams unit graded out dismally in 2015, thanks mostly to shaky legs and shaky coverage. Nicolas Pritchard was shaky as a freshman, and Maryland ranked 125th in punting average; meanwhile, the Terps also ranked 97th in kick return average allowed. You're just wasting a good return man like Likely if you're allowing the same returns and field position bumps that Likely is providing you.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
3-Sep	Howard	NR	49.7	100%
9-Sep	at Florida International	113	12.0	76%
17-Sep	at Central Florida	99	6.4	64%
1-Oct	Purdue	88	9.5	71%
8-Oct	at Penn State	28	-11.8	25%
15-Oct	Minnesota	42	-0.6	49%
22-Oct	Michigan State	22	-7.1	34%
29-Oct	at Indiana	56	-4.4	40%
5-Nov	at Michigan	6	-19.9	13%
12-Nov	Ohio State	14	-9.9	28%
19-Nov	at Nebraska	26	-12.1	24%
26-Nov	Rutgers	87	9.5	71%
Projected wins: 5.9

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-11.5% (86)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	47 / 41
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	-18 / -5.9
2015 TO Luck/Game	-4.6
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	70% (93%, 46%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	3.8 (-0.8)

10. A 4-0 start is on the table

Durkin has generated buzz with some recent recruiting successes. Again, there's no guarantee that he will retain any of the commitments he has secured, but it's a good start.

He'll need a good start on the field, too. Maryland is projected a borderline bowl team and is projected with at least 64 percent win probability in five games, but four of those five come in the first four games of the year.

A 4-0 start, combined with good recruiting, could generate all sorts of positive press. And going by the S&P+ probabilities, Maryland has about a 35 percent chance of hitting that 4-0 mark. But since the schedule gets brutal in a hurry, anything less than 4-0 would make securing a bowl bid a lot dicier. So not only does the quarterback position need to improve this year; it needs to have improved right out of the gates.

There's a lot to like about the Durkin hire. He checked a lot of boxes before he got the job, and he has done an outstanding job of generating summer buzz. But again, so did Mark Stoops. Building is tricky. We'll see if Durkin can continue to check boxes moving forward.