:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/50121993/usa-today-9382361.0.jpg)
Alabama is officially the preseason favorite to win the SEC. History suggests the Crimson Tide have a 21 percent chance of following through on that prediction.
In the previous 24 seasons of SEC play, or since the introduction of the SEC Championship, the writers have only gotten their conference champion right five times.
In fact, just spamming "Alabama" or "Florida" every year would have a better success rate (5-19) than the media's current picks.
Since 1996, only four of the league's favorites in July went on to play in the SEC Championship Game. In four other instances, the preseason favorite failed to finish in the top half of its division.
| Year | Preseason pick | Result | Actual SEC champ |
| 2015 | Auburn | 7th (West) | Alabama |
| 2014 | Alabama | SEC Champs | Alabama |
| 2013 | Alabama | t-1st (West) | Auburn |
| 2012 | LSU | t-2nd (West) | Alabama |
| 2011 | Alabama | 2nd (West) | LSU |
| 2010 | Alabama | 4th (West) | Auburn |
| 2009 | Florida | SEC runners-up | Alabama |
| 2008 | Florida | SEC Champs | Florida |
| 2007 | LSU | SEC Champs | LSU |
| 2006 | Auburn | t-2nd (West) | Florida |
| 2005 | Tennessee | 5th (East) | Georgia |
| 2004 | Georgia | 2nd (East) | Auburn |
| 2003 | Auburn | 3rd (West) | LSU |
| 2002 | Tennessee | 3rd (East) | Georgia |
| 2001 | Florida | 2nd (East) | LSU |
| 2000 | Alabama | t-5th (West) | Florida |
| 1999 | Tennessee | 2nd (East) | Alabama |
| 1998 | Florida | 2nd (East) | Tennessee |
| 1997 | Florida | t-2nd (East) | Tennessee |
| 1996 | Tennessee | 2nd (East) | Florida |
| 1995 | Florida | SEC Champs | Florida |
| 1994 | Florida | SEC Champs | Florida |
| 1993 | Alabama | SEC runners-up | Florida |
| 1992 | Florida | SEC runners-up | Alabama |
(Table inspired by Barrett Sallee.)
Things started so well. The media at least picked a division champion as its favorite from 1992 to 1995.
Then teams outside the Florida/Alabama axis showed up, and this success rate began to drop.
It cratered in 2015, when paper champions Auburn fell to the bottom of the SEC West and posted the same league record as both Vanderbilt and Kentucky.
The full 2016 predictions:
SEC East
|
School |
Points |
|
Tennessee (225) |
2167 |
|
Florida (57) |
1891 |
|
Georgia (45) |
1860 |
|
Kentucky |
933 |
|
Vanderbilt (2) |
810 |
|
Missouri |
807 |
|
South Carolina (2) |
800 |
SEC West
|
School |
Points |
|
Alabama (246) |
2220 |
|
LSU (76) |
1984 |
|
Ole Miss (5) |
1479 |
|
Texas A&M (3) |
1130 |
|
Arkansas (1) |
1047 |
|
Auburn |
890 |
|
Mississippi State |
518 |
SEC champion
|
School |
Points |
|
Alabama |
223 |
|
LSU |
59 |
|
Tennessee |
29 |
|
Georgia |
7 |
|
Florida |
5 |
|
Ole Miss |
4 |
|
Texas A&M |
1 |
|
South Carolina |
1 |
|
Vanderbilt |
1 |
|
Arkansas |
1 |