Iowa could make another Big Ten title game run, but don't expect another 2015

Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year's team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year's roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

1. That was fun

In 2013, we thought the end was nigh, and Kirk Ferentz responded by fielding a top-30 team. It's not inconceivable that the same thing could happen -- the passing game clicks, the run game isn't terrible, the run defense is stable, the pass defense improves.

-- 2015 Iowa preview

Iowa's 2015 is why most of us follow college football. From a pure numbers standpoint, most of us aren't Alabama fans or Ohio State fans or Florida State fans. In our lifetimes, we won't get many chances to partake in a national title race, but we like to believe that if we stick it out, if we just keep showing up, we might be blessed by a run like what Ferentz's Hawkeyes had last fall.

We might see our team pull away from its in-state rival with a perfect fourth quarter (Iowa 31, Iowa State 17). We might see them win with a 57-yard field goal at the buzzer (Iowa 27, Pitt 24). We might see them take on our division's heavyweight on the road and make stop after stop near their goal line (Iowa 10, Wisconsin 6). We might see them destroying another upstart rival on their home field (Iowa 40, Northwestern 10). We might see them survive a late-game shootout against another rival (Iowa 40, Minnesota 35).

We might see them finish the regular season 12-0.

We might see them take a fourth-quarter lead in the conference title game on a gorgeous bomb.

Iowa did all of those. Granted, the last 70 minutes or so (the last 10 of the Big Ten title game against Michigan State and all 60 against Stanford) didn't go well. But some great movies don't quite have the ending they deserve. And for most of us, it's not about the final destination so much as the moments along the way.

Now comes the awkward part. A magical run is, by definition, almost impossible to replicate. It uses up most of your dark arts quota. It also sets a bar that you probably can't clear.

My S&P+ rating is a jerk, really. It is, for better or worse, probably the least forgiving rating you can find when it comes to giving credit to a team for being one play better or one bounce luckier. That is by design. It had Iowa ranked well lower than any other computer ratings in the Massey Composite last year.

If you were deriving your ratings from play-by-play or drive-based numbers (and not simply "who did you play and who did you beat?"), you probably didn't have Iowa much higher. The Hawkeyes were ranked 33rd in ESPN's FPI, 34th in Ed Feng's The Power Rank, 34th in FEI, 35th at Tempo-Free Gridiron. But the Hawkeyes ended up 47th in S&P+. And while that's awfully low for a 12-win team, S&P+ had a pretty much perfect read on the Hawkeyes over the last half of the season, as did Vegas. At least, they did until the Rose Bowl, when the Hawkeyes dramatically underachieved.

With decent experience on both sides, Iowa is projected to improve off of last year's poor S&P+ rating. A top-40 rating would put the Hawkeyes right in the middle of another division title race, and getting Northwestern, Wisconsin, and Nebraska at home can only further that cause. They are projected as at least slight favorites in nine of 12 games and aren't a bigger than 7.7-point underdog in any game. They will have a chance in just about every game they play, and they could make this another fun season.

But last year was last year. Buy the DVD, keep those feelings under lock and key and never lose them. Just don't expect a repeat.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 12-2 | Adj. Record: 10-4 | Final F/+ Rk: 38 | Final S&P+ Rk: 47
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
5-Sep	Illinois State	N/A	31-14	W	93%	100%	+2.4
12-Sep	at Iowa State	79	31-17	W	71%	93%	+9.8	+10.0
19-Sep	Pittsburgh	46	27-24	W	69%	84%	+3.2	-2.5
26-Sep	North Texas	126	62-16	W	87%	100%	+13.4	+21.5
3-Oct	at Wisconsin	32	10-6	W	46%	25%	+13.7	+11.0
10-Oct	Illinois	65	29-20	W	75%	93%	+7.4	-2.0
17-Oct	at Northwestern	52	40-10	W	92%	100%	+35.8	+27.5
31-Oct	Maryland	76	31-15	W	78%	99%	-5.6	-1.0
7-Nov	at Indiana	61	35-27	W	62%	77%	-2.4	+1.0
14-Nov	Minnesota	55	40-35	W	32%	22%	-7.1	-7.5
21-Nov	Purdue	93	40-20	W	79%	99%	+1.8	-2.0
27-Nov	at Nebraska	36	28-20	W	70%	85%	+7.3	+6.5
5-Dec	vs. Michigan State	9	13-16	L	41%	26%	+4.1	+0.5
1-Jan	vs. Stanford	6	16-45	L	3%	0%	-22.9	-22.0

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	30.3	56	23.0	32
Points Per Game	30.9	54	20.4	19

2. Rolling 6s

Advanced stats are pretty good at telling you the likelihood of what you just saw. Sometimes that's interpreted as numbers (and the nerds that created them) telling you that you didn't deserve a win. Iowa completely deserved the 12-0 start; it's just that the Hawkeyes probably wouldn't have been able to do it twice.

There is a one-in-36 chance of rolling two sixes with a pair of dice. That equals about a 2.8 percent chance of rolling 12 in any given roll. Looking at the win expectancies above -- which looks at the key stats from a game and declares that you would have won that game about X percent of the time -- Iowa had about a 2.6 percent chance of surviving its 12 games unbeaten.

So basically, Iowa rolled a 12 in 2015. In the Strat-O-Matic game of life, the Hawkeyes hit a home run. (And hey, technically you can roll two 12s in a row.)

Randomness or not, the Hawkeyes found one hell of a rhythm in the first half of the season.

• First 7 games:
  Record: 7-0 | Average percentile performance: 76% (~top 30) | Average performance vs. S&P+ projection: +12.2 PPG | Yards per play: Iowa 6.0, Opp 4.4 (+1.6)
• Last 7 games:
  Record: 5-2 | Average percentile performance: 52% (~top 60) | Average performance vs. S&P+ projection: -3.5 PPG | Yards per play: Opp 5.5, Iowa 4.9 (-0.6)

The product regressed, but power to Iowa for raising its game just enough. When the defense suffered a letdown against Minnesota, the offense picked up the slack. When the offense went cold against Maryland (4.3 yards per play), the defense made the Terps even colder (4.2). This delicate balance lasted right up until Michigan State's 22-play all-timer of a drive in the fourth quarter of the Big Ten title game.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.27	60	IsoPPP+	104.9	50
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	42.5%	59	Succ. Rt. +	105.7	51
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	27.3	16	Def. FP+	27.0	19
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.8	36	Redzone S&P+	109.2	39
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	17.0		ACTUAL	16	-1.0

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	72	51	51	50
RUSHING	49	54	36	55
PASSING	89	47	66	42
Standard Downs		80	78	75
Passing Downs		19	19	21

Q1 Rk	76	1st Down Rk	66
Q2 Rk	28	2nd Down Rk	54
Q3 Rk	103	3rd Down Rk	45
Q4 Rk	25

3. Waiting your turn

In 2014, Ferentz and offensive coordinator Greg Davis found themselves in an awkward spot. A key tenet of Ferentz Ball has always been to choose mistake avoidance over all else. If you've got a senior who knows what to do and a sophomore with twice the upside and mistake potential, play the senior.

That meant playing Jake Rudock over C.J. Beathard at quarterback and giving senior running back Mark Weisman 213 carries while explosive backups Jordan Canzeri and Akrum Wadley got only 135. Kevonte Martin-Manley got 89 targets and averaged 5.9 yards per target while sophomore Matt VandeBerg (25 targets, 10.2 yards per target) waited his turn.

There is order to this approach, and it brings proof that if you work hard and do what the coaches are telling you, you'll eventually get your turn. It also limits your offensive upside. Mistakes can hurt; so can going three-and-out a lot.

Those sophomores, however, become upperclassmen. As long as they don't leave before they reach the front of the line (and many do), they will get their shot. With Beathard throwing primarily to VandeBerg in 2015, Iowa improved from 61st to 47th in Passing S&P+. With Canzeri and Wadley combining for 266 carries and LeShun Daniels Jr. pitching in 145, the Hawkeyes improved from a dreadful 109th in Rushing S&P+ to a far more palatable 54th.

Granted, there are still some kinks in the hierarchy. Daniels, a 2015 junior, got more carries than sophomores Wadley or Derrick Mitchell Jr. despite drastically lower efficiency and explosiveness numbers and might again this fall. Meanwhile, with four of last year's top five receiving targets gone, Iowa might be forced to actually lean on a sophomore or two in the passing game. (It's either that or start a senior walk-on, which ... well ... you probably can't put that past Ferentz and Davis.)

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2016 Year

Rivals

247 Comp.

Comp

Att

Yards

TD

INT

Comp Rate

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/ Att.

C.J. Beathard

6'2, 215

Sr.

3 stars (5.6)

0.8359

223

362

2809

17

5

61.6%

28

7.2%

6.7

Tyler Wiegers

6'4, 225

So.

4 stars (5.8)

0.8727

3

4

32

0

0

75.0%

Drew Cook

6'5, 220

RSFr.

3 stars (5.5)

0.8313

Nathan Stanley

6'5, 212

Fr.

3 stars (5.6)

0.8670

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Jordan Canzeri	RB					183	984	12	5.4	6.5	34.4%	3	2
LeShun Daniels, Jr.	RB	6'0, 225	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8093	145	646	8	4.5	5.1	29.0%	1	0
Akrum Wadley	RB	5'11, 191	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7683	83	496	7	6.0	6.7	38.6%	1	1
C.J. Beathard	QB	6'2, 215	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8359	72	448	6	6.2	5.9	45.8%	6	3
Derrick Mitchell, Jr.	RB	6'1, 220	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8398	26	162	2	6.2	7.6	42.3%	1	1
Drake Kulick	FB	6'1, 236	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	NR
Marcel Joly	RB	5'11, 195	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8315
Toks Akinribade	RB	6'0, 205	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8599

4. The tweaks worked

One of the things Iowa was particularly good at in 2015 was adjusting. The gameplan itself was rarely successful -- the Hawkeyes ranked 76th in Q1 S&P+ and, after getting a chance to reassess at halftime, 103rd in Q3. But they were 28th in Q2 and 25th in Q4. Davis' ability to identify what was and wasn't working and adjust on the fly made a significant difference for the Iowa attack.

So what's most likely to work in 2016?

• Running back depth. Iowa has options in the backfield, and Davis, who seems perfectly willing to run the ball a ton if he's got the horses, will likely be able to do so. Granted, Wadley's proven more over two years (and 44 fewer carries) than Daniels has and probably deserves more of the carries; meanwhile, Mitchell was fantastic in limited opportunities. Of course, they'll all get carries, and that they come in different shapes and sizes can only help.
• Tight end play. Losing Henry Krieger Coble after a breakout year isn't a good thing, but George Kittle could be ready for a star turn. Of the 799 FBS players targeted at least 20 times in 2015, he was the only one with a success rate of at least 65 percent, a catch rate of at least 80 percent, and a per-catch average of more than 14 yards. More targets will tamp down those averages a bit, but the upside is immense. And one just assumes that backups like Jon Wisnieski will do well if called upon. This is Iowa, after all.

The biggest concern comes at receiver. Iowa's passing numbers improved with VandeBerg as a No. 1 target, but his numbers regressed considerably. Instead of Tevaun Smith serving as his No. 2, now it's going to be either a little-used youngster like sophomores Jerminic Smith and Adrian Falconer (or junior Jonathan Parker) or a walk-on like Riley McCarron. Smith averaged 23.5 yards per catch but caught only six of 19 balls; meanwhile, "senior walk-on" doesn't exactly scream "upside!"

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Matt VandeBerg	WR	6'1, 185	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7848	94	65	700	69.1%	26.2%	7.4	61.7%	47.9%	1.44
Tevaun Smith	WR					62	32	563	51.6%	17.3%	9.1	51.6%	40.3%	2.10
Henry Krieger Coble	TE					50	36	440	72.0%	13.9%	8.8	42.0%	44.0%	1.86
Jacob Hillyer	WR					32	16	212	50.0%	8.9%	6.6	53.1%	40.6%	1.46
Jordan Canzeri	RB					31	20	208	64.5%	8.6%	6.7	35.5%	38.7%	1.60
George Kittle	TE	6'4, 250	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8107	23	20	290	87.0%	6.4%	12.6	69.6%	65.2%	1.84
Derrick Mitchell, Jr.	RB	6'1, 220	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8398	20	15	141	75.0%	5.6%	7.1	25.0%	40.0%	1.58
Jerminic Smith	WR	6'1, 187	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8274	19	6	141	31.6%	5.3%	7.4	42.1%	31.6%	2.19
Riley McCarron	WR	5'9, 186	Sr.	NR	NR	9	5	56	55.6%	2.5%	6.2	55.6%	55.6%	1.17
Akrum Wadley	RB	5'11, 191	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7683	6	6	94	100.0%	1.7%	15.7	83.3%	83.3%	1.76
Macon Plewa	FB					3	2	7	66.7%	0.8%	2.3	66.7%	0.0%	0.00
LeShun Daniels, Jr.	RB	6'0, 225	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8093	2	1	9	50.0%	0.6%	4.5	100.0%	50.0%	0.75
Jon Wisnieski	TE	6'5, 250	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8722
Jonathan Parker	WR	5'8, 188	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7852
Jay Scheel	WR	6'1, 195	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8833
Adrian Falconer	WR	6'1, 190	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8145
Noah Fant	TE	6'5, 220	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8665
Devonte Young	WR	6'0, 195	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8401

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	103.8	2.78	4.07	35.9%	71.4%	17.6%	90.0	7.4%	6.4%
Rank	51	81	3	103	35	35	77	111	47

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Jordan Walsh	RG					14	37	2015 All-American, 2015 1st All-Big Ten
Austin Blythe	C					14	49	2015 2nd All-Big Ten
Sean Welsh	C	6'3, 290	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8575	14	24
Boone Myers	LG	6'5, 305	Jr.	NR	NR	10	10
Cole Croston	LT	6'5, 307	Sr.	NR	NR	10	10
Ike Boettger	RT	6'6, 307	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8097	6	6
James Daniels	LG	6'4, 295	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8909	2	2
Keegan Render	RG	6'4, 308	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8282	0	0
Eric Simmons	C					0	0
Steve Ferentz	C	6'2, 282	Sr.	NR	NR	0	0
Ryan Ward	LG	6'5, 295	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8898	0	0
Dalton Ferguson	RT	6'4, 310	So.	NR	NR	0	0
Landan Paulsen	OL	6'5, 305	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8755
Levi Paulsen	OL	6'5, 305	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8745
Jake Newborg	OL	6'3, 290	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8569
Brett Waechter	LT	6'5, 290	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8291
Alaric Jackson	OL	6'7, 285	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8596

5. Good at the right things

Iowa's overall line stats weren't amazing; the Hawkeyes ranked just 51st in Adj. Line Yards and 77th in Adj. Sack Rate. But they were good at the things they needed to be good at. They were in the top 40 in both short-yardage success and stuff rate, and the sack rate on passing downs was actually better than on standard downs. They kept defenders out of the backfield when they needed to, in other words, and they converted third-and-2s.

Of course, that was with two all-conference interior linemen. Jordan Walsh and Austin Blythe combined for 86 starts in Iowa City, and while five others with starting experience return (including two-year starter Sean Welsh, who likely moves to center), any drop-off on the interior could hurt those short-yardage numbers. That could derail this entire slow-motion train.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.12	8	IsoPPP+	113.6	30
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	38.3%	36	Succ. Rt. +	106.3	45
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	32.0	27	Off. FP+	32.2	21
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	3.9	26	Redzone S&P+	117.6	17
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	23.5		ACTUAL	27.0	+3.5

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	22	34	45	30
RUSHING	15	25	48	14
PASSING	60	44	43	45
Standard Downs		29	37	24
Passing Downs		38	68	30

Q1 Rk	41	1st Down Rk	59
Q2 Rk	61	2nd Down Rk	58
Q3 Rk	34	3rd Down Rk	34
Q4 Rk	59

6. Even more Iowa than before

You know what you're going to get with the Iowa defense. The Hawkeyes are going to bend and bend, playing sound football, avoiding mistakes, and preparing to pounce if you make one. It was the way of the late Norm Parker, and it is the way of his (unrelated) successor, Phil Parker.

Only one thing really changed for Iowa in 2015: The Hawkeyes were a little bit better across the board. They prevented big plays better, they played a little bit better in the redzone, they improved from 45th to 25th in Rushing S&P+, and they improved from 89th to 44th in Passing S&P+. They defended about the same on passing downs but forced a lot more passing downs.

This was what Iowa defense is supposed to be. After slumping to 67th in Def. S&P+ in 2014, the Hawkeyes rebounded to 32nd; granted, that's not the No. 10 ranking they boasted in 2013, but it was a major step in the right direction.

In theory, you could see another step in 2016. Five of the top seven tacklers on the line return, as do three of four linebackers, and six of eight defensive backs. And the defense has some outright stars in players like corner Desmond King and linebacker Josey Jewell.

At the same time, injury luck skewed very much in Iowa's favor, and that doesn't tend to happen two years in a row. Twelve Hawkeyes averaged at least one tackle per game; 11 of them played in all 14 games. That is some significant luck, even if the one injury (end Drew Ott) was costly.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	98.8	2.95	3.35	34.0%	63.8%	16.4%	114.5	4.4%	9.7%
Rank	70	78	79	23	52	104	41	89	23

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Nate Meier	DE					14	53.5	7.5%	10.5	6.5	0	1	1	0
Parker Hesse	DE	6'3, 250	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8256	14	34.0	4.8%	3.0	2.0	1	2	1	0
Jaleel Johnson	DT	6'4, 310	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9184	14	33.5	4.7%	5.5	3.5	0	1	0	0
Nathan Bazata	DT	6'2, 285	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8119	14	30.0	4.2%	5.0	2.0	0	1	0	0
Matt Nelson	DE	6'8, 282	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8619	13	11.5	1.6%	1.5	0.5	0	0	1	0
Drew Ott	DE					6	9.5	1.3%	7.5	5.0	0	0	3	0
Faith Ekakitie	DT	6'3, 290	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9197	12	9.0	1.3%	1.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Kyle Terlouw	DT					9	2.5	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Melvin Spears	DE					6	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jake Hulett	DT	6'3, 285	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	NR
Sam Brincks	DE	6'5, 270	So.	NR	NR
Brady Reiff	DE	6'3, 250	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8436
Michael Slater	DT	6'2, 285	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8345
Anthony Nelson	DE	6'7, 250	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8337
Cedrick Lattimore	DE	6'5, 260	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8698
Romeo McKnight	DE	6'5, 235	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8563
Chauncey Golston	DE	6'5, 227	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8491
Brandon Simon	DE	6'1, 236	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8438

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Josey Jewell	MLB	6'2, 235	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7844	14	94.0	13.3%	7.5	2.5	4	6	1	0
Cole Fisher	WLB					14	88.0	12.4%	5.5	2.5	1	6	1	0
Ben Niemann	OLB	6'3, 230	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7985	14	33.5	4.7%	6.5	3.0	0	2	0	0
Bo Bower	OLB	6'1, 235	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	NR	14	9.5	1.3%	1.5	1.0	1	1	0	0
Travis Perry	MLB					14	8.5	1.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Aaron Mends	WLB	6'0, 212	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8216	12	2.5	0.4%	0.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Jack Hockaday	WLB	6'1, 227	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8332	8	1.5	0.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Angelo Garbutt	MLB	6'2, 230	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8404
Nick Wilson	OLB	6'2, 217	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7511
Kyle Taylor	LB	6'2, 220	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8574
Barrington Wade	LB	6'1, 210	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8498

7. Run defense will be fine

Even the good Iowa defenses tend to be good because of how well they react, not how well they attack. The Hawkeyes didn't have much of a presence in the backfield against the run, but aside from what Christian McCaffrey did to them in the Rose Bowl, they did a spectacular job of limiting big-play opportunities.

I doubt that changes. Losing Nate Meier and Ott means having to replace your two best pass rushers, but the tackle position appears stacked, and the return of Jewell and battery mate Ben Niemann should assure that Iowa still pursues quite well near the line of scrimmage.

Jewell has developed into one of the Big Ten's most well-rounded linebackers. His five non-sack tackles for loss led the team, his 10 passes defensed were second, and he proved he could be a blitzing weapon at certain times. He is the satellite around which the entire front seven revolves. Iowa will be in good shape as long as he's in there.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jordan Lomax	FS					14	71.0	10.0%	1	0	1	6	1	0
Desmond King	CB	5'11, 203	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8330	14	59.0	8.3%	1	0	8	13	0	0
Miles Taylor	SS	6'0, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8377	14	53.5	7.5%	2.5	0.5	1	4	0	0
Greg Mabin	CB	6'2, 200	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8224	14	45.5	6.4%	0.5	0	2	8	1	0
Maurice Fleming	CB					14	13.0	1.8%	0	0	0	5	0	0
Brandon Snyder	FS	6'1, 210	So.	NR	NR	13	8.5	1.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Joshua Jackson	DB	6'1, 185	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8006	14	8.0	1.1%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Anthony Gair	SS	6'2, 210	Sr.	NR	0.8465	10	6.5	0.9%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Sean Draper	CB					13	4.0	0.6%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Kevin Ward	DB	6'1, 205	Jr.	NR	NR	14	3.5	0.5%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Jake Gervase	FS	6'1, 210	So.	NR	NR	6	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Michael Ojemudia	CB	6'2, 190	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8107
Amani Hooker	DB	6'0, 203	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8645
Manny Rugamba	DB	6'0, 172	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8568

8. A scary lack of depth

Good news: Three of four starters return from a secondary that was perfectly decent last year. King and Greg Mabin combined for 10 picks and 21 break-ups in 2015, and Miles Taylor entered the rotation with great effect last year.

Bad news: Iowa basically only played five DBs last year. The Hawkeyes got away with a tiny rotation becaus ethey were mostly injury-free, but what if they're not in 2016? They have to replace safety Jordan Lomax and corner Maurice Fleming, and if anyone else gets hurt, they'll be dipping into a pool of walk-ons or freshmen pretty quickly.

Talking about depth is a tricky thing. Technically you might get away with doing exactly what Iowa did last year, and if that's the case, the Hawkeye pass defense could be excellent. But we know injuries happen. And two injuries could cause the secondary to implode.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Dillon Kidd			59	40.2	4	21	21	71.2%
Marshall Koehn			8	40.9	0	0	3	37.5%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Marshall Koehn			81	63.4	47	0	58.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Marshall Koehn			47-53	8-10	80.0%	8-10	80.0%
Miguel Recinos	6'1, 190	So.	2-2	0-0	N/A	0-0	N/A

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Desmond King	KR	5'11, 203	Sr.	29	24.4	0
Riley McCarron	KR	5'9, 186	Sr.	3	21.0	0
Desmond King	PR	5'11, 203	Sr.	17	14.2	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	22
Field Goal Efficiency	22
Punt Return Success Rate	12
Kick Return Success Rate	3
Punt Success Rate	114
Kickoff Success Rate	25

9. A one-man special teams unit

Iowa's special teams unit was a boon in 2015, with sturdy output in the place-kicking, kickoffs, and kick and punt return categories. But those four departments were basically occupied by two guys: kicker Marshall Koehn and return man Desmond King.

That two-man special teams unit is now a one-man unit. Koehn's gone, as is punter Dillon Kidd. But King should assure at least a decent special teams output ... at least, as long as the sport hasn't outlawed kickoffs before September.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
3-Sep	Miami (Ohio)	107	22.4	90%
10-Sep	Iowa State	71	10.4	73%
17-Sep	North Dakota State	NR	26.3	94%
24-Sep	at Rutgers	87	7.7	67%
1-Oct	Northwestern	46	6.5	65%
8-Oct	at Minnesota	42	-2.4	44%
15-Oct	at Purdue	88	7.8	67%
22-Oct	Wisconsin	37	3.4	58%
5-Nov	at Penn State	28	-6.6	35%
12-Nov	Michigan	6	-7.7	33%
19-Nov	at Illinois	76	4.2	60%
25-Nov	Nebraska	26	0.1	50%
Projected wins: 7.4

Five-Year F/+ Rk	8.6% (48)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	49 / 51
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	11 / 6.5
2015 TO Luck/Game	+1.7
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	72% (72%, 72%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	10.0 (2.0)

10. The expectations game

Iowa went 8-0 in the Big Ten last year and returns quite a few key contributors, including the quarterback and probably the two best defenders.

Iowa squeezed out a top-50 S&P+ ranking last year and probably has enough to improve on paper and find itself right in the thick of the Big Ten West race.

Both of these sentences are true. And the two set drastically different expectations for 2016. By now, you know that I lean more toward the latter. The 2015 season was wonderful for Iowa -- it reignited fan enthusiasm, it provided all sorts of bragging rights, it gave Ferentz one more gleaming bright spot. But it's over. And while you can always roll a 12 twice in a row, odds are good that Iowa will go back to being a top-40 team in a division full of them.

That said, the schedule should assist again. The Hawkeyes have a 67 percent chance or greater of winning in five games, per S&P+, and they have a 33 percent chance or lower in just one. That leaves six games in the middle, and if they can still maneuver through close games as well as they did last year (which could be tricky without Koehn's booming leg and with a rebuilt pass rush), they could again approach nine wins, perhaps even 10.

The odds favor something closer to seven or eight wins, though, which would smash them in with Nebraska, Minnesota, and seemingly every other West squad.