Tracy Claeys wasn't a creative hire, but he could win immediately at Minnesota

Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year's team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year's roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

1. Creativity isn't always better

My initial reaction was the same as many others'.

As a whole, a conference improves when it makes better hires. It's that simple. When Pac-12 schools hired Chip Kelly and Jim Harbaugh in 2007, then followed with guys like Rich Rodriguez, Todd Graham, Mike Leach, Chris Petersen, and Jim Mora in the following years, the product improved rather dramatically. The Pac-12 North is now maybe the second-strongest division in college football. A decade or so ago, it was a desert.

It's the same with the ACC this year. In the last 20 months, the conference has brought in Mark Richt, Pat Narduzzi, Justin Fuente, Bronco Mendenhall, and Dino Babers. Mendenhall won 99 games in 11 years at BYU and was almost completely overshadowed because of the magnitude of some of the other hires.

The Big Ten, meanwhile, might be getting its act together in some regard. In the same 20-month (or so) span, Michigan has replaced Brady Hoke with Harbaugh, Maryland and Rutgers have both replaced coaches with mediocre-at-best success with well-regarded, seemingly high-ceiling Urban Meyer and Jim Harbaugh assistants. Illinois went from Bill Cubit to a Super Bowl coach in Lovie Smith.

Not all of these moves will work out, obviously. Coaching is the ultimate zero-sum game. Most (though definitely not all) hires make some degree of sense, and most head coaches are smart football guys who could succeed in the right circumstances. But in every game that is played, someone has to lose.

Regardless, in terms of aggression and ambition, these hires were all commended to a certain degree.

When Minnesota replaced Jerry Kill with Tracy Claeys, then, it was easy to be underwhelmed. Over the last four years, Minnesota has gone 28-24. That's clear improvement over the 20-42 record the Gophers had pulled off over the five previous years, but is it enough improvement, enough sure quality, for UM to simply give the job to Kill's right-hand man upon Kill's sudden retirement? And beyond the "who," the Gophers rushed to make this hire. They didn't check out the marketplace or weigh other names or take stock. They just gave the job to Claeys.

If nothing else, while all these other schools were making ambitious hires, it was easy to feel like Minnesota was happy with treading water.

Of course, hires are only judged based on feel and perception and aesthetics until they actually coach a game. And for whatever ambition we can claim the Gophers do or do not have, they have been a top-40 team for two straight years, per S&P+. They hadn't pulled that off even once since Glen Mason's last year in charge (2006).

With recruiting rankings typically in the high-50s or 60s, it was easy to wonder what Minnesota's ceiling was going to be under Kill. Heck, he might have already bumped his head on it. And we obviously don't know if or how Claeys might raise that ceiling. Plus, there's the small matter of Mason getting run out of town -- a decade ago, Minnesota was tired of merely fielding a top-40 team, and a decade later the school is celebrating it.

All of this undersells Claeys, however. Or at least, it might. The 47-year old Kansas State alum coached for Kill for 20 years, sure, but he's had plenty of time to work on his own plans as a head coach. He pushed out a couple of Kill assistants and brought in a couple of new influences on offense. And after Minnesota couldn't manage better than a No. 55 recruiting class ranking under Kill (per the 247Sports Composite), Claeys' first class cracked the top 50.

Claeys was Kill's righthand man, but Kill 2.0 could still end up an upgrade, too. And with what Minnesota returns in 2016, the Gophers could contend in the Big Ten West right out of the gates. Per S&P+, their conference win projection is higher than Iowa's. That would certainly be a pretty impressive way to make a first full impression.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 6-7 | Adj. Record: 10-3 | Final F/+ Rk: 55 | Final S&P+ Rk: 37
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
3-Sep	TCU	19	17-23	L	53%	11%	+3.1
12-Sep	at Colorado State	86	23-20	W	63%	40%	+1.3	-3.0
19-Sep	Kent State	109	10-7	W	93%	100%	-10.9	-21.0
26-Sep	Ohio	69	27-24	W	74%	65%	-13.3	-7.5
3-Oct	at Northwestern	52	0-27	L	16%	0%	-26.8	-22.5
10-Oct	at Purdue	93	41-13	W	96%	100%	+17.8	+25.0
17-Oct	Nebraska	36	25-48	L	32%	4%	-29.2	-25.0
31-Oct	Michigan	8	26-29	L	83%	55%	+17.8	+11.0
7-Nov	at Ohio State	3	14-28	L	53%	5%	+6.0	+9.0
14-Nov	at Iowa	38	35-40	L	84%	78%	+7.1	+7.5
21-Nov	Illinois	65	32-23	W	82%	86%	+4.6	+4.5
28-Nov	Wisconsin	32	21-31	L	45%	6%	-11.4	-7.5
28-Dec	vs. Central Michigan	67	21-14	W	77%	72%	-2.5	+1.0

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	30.1	58	20.9	23
Points Per Game	22.5	106	25.2	45

2. A bumpy ride

If you're looking for hope about a higher ceiling under Claeys, this February's slight recruiting uptick was certainly a favorable sign. Rising to 48th isn't the same as rising into the top 25 or something, but it's a start.

Meanwhile, the actual product on the field seemed to improve a touch when Claeys took over, too. You just couldn't tell it because the schedule also improved.

• First 7 games:
  Record: 4-3 | Average percentile performance: 61% (~top 50) | Yards per play: UM 5.0, Opp 4.6 (+0.4)
• Last 6 games:
  Record: 2-4 | Average percentile performance: 71% (~top 35) | Yards per play: UM 5.8, Opp 5.2 (+0.6)

Kill stepped down due to ongoing health issues the week of the Michigan game, and the Gophers proceeded to nearly take down a Michigan team that had been one of the stories of the season to that point. They outgained the Wolverines by 165 yards (1.9 per play) and won the turnover margin. They lost mainly because Michigan scored touchdowns on all four of its scoring opportunities, and while Minnesota created more of them, the Gophers settled for four field goals and ended the game at the Michigan 1.

Against Iowa, meanwhile, the Gophers produced an outstanding 61 percent success rate to Iowa's 49 and outgained the Hawkeyes by 0.9 yards per play. But again, they fell just short.

Winning either one of these games would have given Claeys a feather in the cap. Regardless, Minnesota was a competitive team with a better offense and less successful defense under his watch. We'll see what happens when he and his staff have had a full offseason to prepare.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.22	82	IsoPPP+	103.2	55
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	39.4%	92	Succ. Rt. +	113.8	20
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	30.3	79	Def. FP+	28.0	37
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.2	89	Redzone S&P+	115.8	19
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	23.2		ACTUAL	22	-1.2

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	103	46	20	55
RUSHING	101	81	68	79
PASSING	73	33	5	55
Standard Downs		39	31	40
Passing Downs		66	12	87

Q1 Rk	83	1st Down Rk	62
Q2 Rk	39	2nd Down Rk	52
Q3 Rk	59	3rd Down Rk	65
Q4 Rk	32

3. A Jay Johnson offense

Most of the coaching staff still has a Kill-heavy feel to it, but Claeys clearly felt the need to shake up the offense a bit. That's almost a little bit odd considering it improved late in the year, but the Gophers were still 58th in Off. S&P+ overall, squandering the efforts of a top-25 defense.

Claeys' choice in replacing Matt Limegrover was an interesting one: He brought in Jay Johnson, most recently of UL-Lafayette.

In a lot of ways, Johnson's offensive tendencies were Limegrover's: Run slightly more than normal on standard downs, pass slightly more than normal on passing downs, play at a plodding tempo and don't be afraid to run the quarterback.

The Ragin' Cajuns spread defenders out more and forced more solo tackles than Minnesota, and they were intent on sitting on the ball when they had a lead (running 86 percent of the time in garbage time situations), but there are far more similarities than differences.

Still, he did spread defenses out a bit more, and while his 2015 Cajuns offense struggled with drastic turnover, when he had a strong quarterback in place and experience around said quarterback, he did some damage. That offense graded out far better than Minnesota's in 2012-13 and was just about even in 2014. And in theory, Johnson could have both the quarterback and the overall offensive experience he needs in 2016.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Mitch Leidner	6'4, 230	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8286	242	407	2701	14	11	59.5%	16	3.8%	6.2
Demry Croft	6'5, 200	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8532	7	17	34	0	0	41.2%	3	15.0%	0.9
Conor Rhoda	6'3, 219	Jr.	NR	NR
Seth Green	6'4, 235	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8813

4. Has Todd McShay lost his damn mind?

It's amazing how quickly guys can go from underrated to overrated. When watching the FCS season opener between Montana and North Dakota State last year, I found that I liked NDSU quarterback Carson Wentz a decent amount. He had good size and a decent arm, and he seemed pretty composed. I thought he could maybe turn into a pretty solid mid-round pick.

Wentz missed half the season with injury but was still moving into first-round projections by the end of the season. And within a few weeks of the end of the season, he was talked about as a potential No. 1 pick. (He ended up going No. 2.)

This was honestly baffling to me. He's a perfectly solid quarterback, and a 152.3 passer rating is pretty good at any level. But his backup produced a 150.3 in his absence, and ... really? No. 2 pick? Carson Wentz?

Mitch Leidner, meanwhile, has developed nicely at Minnesota. As a freshman part-timer in 2013, he ran more than he threw and produced just a 114.7 passer rating in conference play. As a sophomore in 2014, he showed flashes of potential through ups and downs -- 71.9 passer rating against TCU, 142.4 against Michigan, 111.5 against Illinois, 267.6 against Iowa, 53.4 against Ohio State.

In 2015, Leidner struggled for a while in developing a rapport with a mostly new set of receivers. But he slowly got somewhere.

• First 5 games: 57 percent completion rate, 10.4 yards per completion, 111.9 rating
• Last 8 games: 61 percent completion rate, 11.6 yards per completion, 127.1 rating

Now, you can't really use demonstrative verbs to describe that. It wasn't a surge; it wasn't a leap, but it was improvement. And when you see that Minnesota ranked fifth in Passing Success Rate+ last year, you're reminded that he was producing these numbers against strong defensive competition.

Heading into 2016, then, with another year of experience and a far more familiar receiving corps, it's easy to think Leidner might be able to take another step forward. Minnesota was 33rd in Passing S&P+ last year and could certainly hope to rise into the top 25 or 30 this year.

That's not a charging hype train right there, but it's optimism. This, on the other hand, is a charging hype train: ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay projected Leidner as a first-round pick in May.

Leidner shows some upside as a passer, but I'll be looking to see if he can improve his accuracy. ... Leidner has ideal size and has thown the ability to make plays with his legs off designed runs and scrambles. He's a late riser to keep an eye on, similar to Blake Bortles and Carson Wentz.

Sigh. A guy with a 56 percent career completion rate and a 123.2 career passer rating, who was basically a fullback playing quarterback two years ago, now has to deal with first-round hype. This helps no one.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Rodney Smith	RB	5'11, 205	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8352	157	670	2	4.3	3.5	36.3%	0	0
Shannon Brooks	RB	6'0, 210	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8364	119	709	7	6.0	9.8	30.3%	4	2
Mitch Leidner	QB	6'4, 230	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8286	91	369	6	4.1	3.4	35.2%	8	5
Rodrick Williams Jr.	RB					33	108	1	3.3	1.7	24.2%	1	1
KJ Maye	WR					9	46	1	5.1	2.4	55.6%	1	1
Demry Croft	QB	6'5, 200	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8532	6	55	0	9.2	10.6	50.0%	0	0
Berkley Edwards	RB					5	29	0	5.8	13.5	20.0%	0	0
Chris Streveler	QB					4	8	0	2.0	0.7	25.0%	0	0
Miles Thomas	FB
Jonathan Femi-Cole	RB	6'0, 225	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8272
James Johannesson	RB	6'1, 230	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8159
Kobe McCrary	RB	6'1, 235	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8332

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
KJ Maye	WR-Z					125	73	773	58.4%	30.4%	6.2	52.8%	46.4%	1.21
Drew Wolitarsky	WR-X	6'3, 220	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8373	62	39	524	62.9%	15.1%	8.5	51.6%	48.4%	1.61
Brandon Lingen	TE	6'5, 250	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7984	49	33	428	67.3%	11.9%	8.7	57.1%	55.1%	1.46
Rashad Still	WR-X	6'5, 205	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8073	36	18	194	50.0%	8.8%	5.4	47.2%	38.9%	1.20
Eric Carter	WR-Z	5'11, 195	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8146	35	23	255	65.7%	8.5%	7.3	48.6%	45.7%	1.45
Rodney Smith	RB	5'11, 205	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8352	22	16	124	72.7%	5.4%	5.6	50.0%	31.8%	1.37
Shannon Brooks	RB	6'0, 210	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8364	21	17	167	81.0%	5.1%	8.0	57.1%	47.6%	1.34
Nate Wozniak	TE	6'10, 275	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8432	15	8	75	53.3%	3.6%	5.0	33.3%	40.0%	1.13
Nick Hart	TE	6'5, 245	Jr.	NR	NR	13	9	84	69.2%	3.2%	6.5	53.8%	30.8%	1.88
Melvin Holland Jr.	WR-Z	6'3, 205	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8601	9	2	8	22.2%	2.2%	0.9	33.3%	0.0%	0.00
Miles Thomas	FB					8	4	42	50.0%	1.9%	5.3	87.5%	37.5%	1.38
Rodrick Williams Jr.	RB					7	4	58	57.1%	1.7%	8.3	57.1%	42.9%	1.49
Isaiah Gentry	WR	6'4, 225	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8274	4	2	36	50.0%	1.0%	9.0	50.0%	50.0%	1.83
Duke Anyanwu	TE	6'4, 245	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7875
Brian Smith	WR	6'4, 210	Jr.	NR	NR
Hunter Register	WR	6'5, 215	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8386
Tyler Johnson	WR	6'2, 185	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8643
Phillip Howard	WR	5'11, 185	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8509

5. Plenty of support if the line holds up

It should probably be mentioned that Minnesota's offensive line was pretty strong last year -- 24th in Adj. Line Yards, 21st in Adj. Sack Rate -- and must replace six players who had accounted for 115 career starts. That's not good.

Of course, Minnesota's line was an injury-depleted carcass by the end of the year, which means that a) ranking in the top 25 in both line categories was a spectacular accomplishment and b) three other guys with starting experience return, including enormous right tackle Jonah Pirsig, the only guy to last all 13 games in 2015.

Of course, Limegrover was the offensive line coach, so getting rid of him as offensive coordinator includes maybe getting rid of the best offensive position coach on the staff. (He's now at Penn State.) New OL coach Bart Miller, formerly of FAU, has big shoes to fill.

If the line holds up, though, there's plenty to like elsewhere. Sophomores Rodney Smith and Shannon Brooks showed potential while trying to carry the running game; Smith was a decent efficiency guy, and while Brooks was all-or-nothing, the alls were impressive.

Combined with a receiving corps that returns senior Drew Wolitarsky and tight end Brandon Lingen (both of whom averaged a solid 8.5 yards per target or so), you have some weapons. Lingen is efficient, and while it seems Minnesota is always looking for one more big-play guy, it's possible that someone like sophomore Isaiah Gentry or big redshirt freshman Hunter Register can fill that role. A lack of big plays held Minnesota back a bit (Brooks aside), but the efficiency aspect should be there again.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	110.2	2.88	3.29	33.7%	60.5%	15.9%	155.1	4.4%	3.6%
Rank	24	66	59	113	102	12	21	55	8

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Josh Campion	RT					4	43
Jon Christenson	LG					8	22
Jonah Pirsig	RT	6'9, 325	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8724	13	20
Joe Bjorklund	RG					9	17
Foster Bush	LT					5	14
Ben Lauer	LT					4	14
Connor Mayes	RG	6'5, 330	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8726	9	9
Tyler Moore	C	6'4, 305	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8539	8	8
Brian Bobek	C					5	5
Jared Weyler	LG	6'4, 305	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8017	0	0
Matt Leidner	C	6'2, 290	Jr.	NR	NR	0	0
Chad Fahning	RT	6'6, 290	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	NR	0	0
Quinn Oseland	OL	6'6, 320	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8553
Bronson Dovich	OL	6'5, 300	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8392
Ted Stieber	OL	6'6, 320	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8367
Nick Connelly	OL	6'7, 300	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8310
Garrison Wright	OL	6'4, 320	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8472
Vincent Calhoun	OL	64, 330	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8189
Sam Schlueter	OL	6'6, 290	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8603

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.08	3	IsoPPP+	112.8	32
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	42.0%	69	Succ. Rt. +	100.3	66
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	28.0	107	Off. FP+	29.8	69
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.4	67	Redzone S&P+	101.3	67
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	18.9		ACTUAL	18.0	-0.9

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	24	44	66	32
RUSHING	61	81	84	70
PASSING	11	17	42	13
Standard Downs		46	70	35
Passing Downs		36	67	25

Q1 Rk	78	1st Down Rk	41
Q2 Rk	33	2nd Down Rk	37
Q3 Rk	33	3rd Down Rk	25
Q4 Rk	50

6. Promoting the guy with the awesome secondary

Claeys changing offices opened up a vacancy at defensive coordinator, and he didn't look too far to fill it: Jay Sawvel, leader of the Minnesota secondary (typically one of the better units in the Big Ten) got himself a promotion.

One assumes not too much will change with the Minnesota defense, then. And that's fine; not much needs to change. The Gophers have carved out a decent niche as an opportunistic bend-don't-break unit, sacrificing efficiency for big-play prevention but still playing efficiently enough to make it work. Minnesota allowed only 16 gains of 30-plus yards all season -- only six teams allowed fewer -- and a lot of that was due to an awesome pass defense.

This could be a "strength gets weaker, weakness gets stronger" situation in 2016. The front seven returns a majority of its two-deep and features a couple of nice weapons in tackle Steven Richardson and linebacker Jack Lynn. Meanwhile, the secondary must replace its top three tacklers, including two strong corners in Eric Murray and Briean Boddy-Calhoun. The secondary might be deep enough to absorb the losses, especially with the return of safety Damarius Travis, who was injured in 2015. Still, losing Murray, Boddy-Calhoun, and safety Antonio Johnson hurts.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	94.9	3.08	3.34	38.8%	71.4%	17.4%	113.7	2.7%	9.0%
Rank	87	93	76	72	98	97	42	114	34

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Theiren Cockran	DE					13	22.5	3.0%	7.0	3.0	0	2	0	0
Steven Richardson	DT	6'0, 300	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8142	10	20.0	2.7%	8.0	3.5	0	2	1	0
Andrew Stelter	DT	6'4, 290	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8473	13	19.5	2.6%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Alex Keith	DE					12	18.5	2.5%	2.5	0.0	0	2	0	0
Scott Ekpe	DT	6'4, 285	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8104	7	14.0	1.9%	2.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Yoshoub Timms	DT	6'2, 295	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7000	8	10.0	1.3%	2.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Gaelin Elmore	DE	6'6, 275	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8568	12	9.0	1.2%	3.5	1.5	0	2	0	0
Hendrick Ekpe	DE	6'5, 240	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8167	13	7.5	1.0%	2.5	2.5	0	2	0	0
Robert Ndondo-Lay	DT					7	4.0	0.5%	0.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Julien Kafo	DE	6'4, 265	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7882	2	2.0	0.3%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jerry Gibson	DE	6'3, 245	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8151
Gary Moore	DT	6'4, 295	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7994
Winston DeLattiboudere	DE	6'3, 240	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8348
Merrick Jackson	DT	6'2, 320	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8352

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Cody Poock	LB	6'2, 230	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8069	12	77.5	10.4%	5.5	0.0	0	0	1	0
De'Vondre Campbell	LB					13	72.5	9.8%	6.5	4.0	1	3	1	0
Jack Lynn	LB	6'3, 240	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8264	13	59.0	7.9%	11.0	1.5	0	2	1	0
Jonathan Celestin	LB	6'1, 220	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7982	13	33.0	4.4%	4.0	0.0	0	1	1	0
Julian Huff	LB	6'0, 225	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8035	13	16.5	2.2%	3.5	2.5	0	1	0	0
Nick Rallis	LB	5'11, 235	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8342	13	14.5	2.0%	3.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Everett Williams	LB	6'1, 235	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8079	7	8.5	1.1%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Blake Cashman	LB	6'2, 225	So.	NR	NR	11	3.5	0.5%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Ray Dixon	LB	6'3, 225	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8287
Jaylen Waters	LB	6'3, 255	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8364
Carter Coughlin	LB	6'4, 220	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9528
Kamal Martin	LB	6'3, 225	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8518
Thomas Barber	LB	6'1, 240	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8425

7. Now just force opponents to pass

The strengths and weaknesses of the Minnesota defense were out in the open last year. It was pretty clear, pretty quickly, that the Gophers were struggling to defend the run; meanwhile, they had a top-20 pass defense. So what would you have done? Run, and run often, of course. Opponents did just that.

So I guess that makes the prescription pretty easy too, huh? The Gophers won't be able to exploit what should still be a decent pass defense if they can't stop the run better. Step one toward improvement up front: health. Ten linemen averaged at least half a tackle per game, but only three played in all 13 games. Tackles Scott Ekpe and Yoshoub Timms made it barely half the season, and Minnesota had to dip a little too far down the depth chart to find contributors.

In theory, the result of this is experience. Almost every tackle is back this year, including Richardson, Ekpe, and Timms, and while the top two tacklers at end are gone, quite a few return. Simple continuity will do this defense favors because the better the line can eat up blocks, the more linebackers Cody Poock, Jack Lynn, and Jonathan Celestin can flow to the ball. The three combined for 19 non-sack tackles for loss even despite the line issues. A sturdy line could bump that total about 25.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Antonio Johnson	S					13	80.0	10.8%	2	0	1	3	0	0
Eric Murray	CB					13	56.5	7.6%	4	1	1	7	3	0
Damarius Travis (2014)	S	6'2, 215	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7000	13	49.0	7.2%	3.5	0	2	5	1	1
Briean Boddy-Calhoun	CB					11	42.5	5.7%	1.5	0.5	4	6	0	0
Adekunle Ayinde	S	6'0, 205	Jr.	NR	NR	13	35.0	4.7%	2.5	0	0	5	0	0
Duke McGhee	S	6'1, 205	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7983	13	32.0	4.3%	1	0	0	2	0	0
Jalen Myrick	CB	5'10, 205	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8151	10	22.5	3.0%	3.5	0.5	3	3	0	0
Antonio Shenault	CB	5'11, 180	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8285	12	13.0	1.7%	0	0	0	1	0	0
KiAnte Hardin	CB	5'10, 175	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8083	13	11.0	1.5%	1	0	0	1	0	0
Ace Rogers	S	6'1, 210	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8535	3	10.0	1.3%	1	0	0	1	0	0
Craig James	CB					5	3.5	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Eric Amoako	S	5'11, 195	Sr.	NR	NR
Jacob Huff	S	5'11, 205	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8156
Dior Johnson	S	6'2, 210	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8574
Ray Buford	CB	6'2, 200	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8463
Coney Durr	CB	5'10, 190	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8375

8. Turnover and continuity

That the defense did as well as it did despite having to provide quite a bit of run support, and despite losing an excellent safety in Damarius Travis, plus an early-season contributor in Ace Rogers, was awfully impressive. And it could set the table for another strong performance this year.

Continuity is generally important in the secondary, and losing your top three tacklers is the opposite of continuity. But getting Travis and Rogers back, along with corner Jalen Myrick (last two years: 4.5 tackles for loss, 14 passes defensed), will help immensely. And some of the youngsters who had to take on larger roles last year -- junior safeties Adekunle Ayinde and Duke McGhee, sophomore corners Antonio Shenault -- could be ready to shine, as well. If the run defense improves, the pass defense will be able to do its part even if there's a little bit of regression.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Peter Mortell			74	43.4	2	17	27	59.5%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Ryan Santoso	6'6, 250	Jr.	58	59.7	27	6	46.6%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Ryan Santoso	6'6, 250	Jr.	31-31	10-10	100.0%	7-11	63.6%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Jalen Myrick	KR	5'10, 205	Sr.	12	21.4	0
KiAnte Hardin	KR	5'10, 175	So.	11	24.3	0
Craig James	PR			12	-0.6	0
KiAnte Hardin	PR	5'10, 175	So.	9	6.8	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	4
Field Goal Efficiency	16
Punt Return Success Rate	112
Kick Return Success Rate	12
Punt Success Rate	29
Kickoff Success Rate	55

9. Santoso is fantastic

Minnesota got almost nothing out of punt returns but thrived in basically every other special teams department. Losing punter Peter Mortell hurts, but the return of kicker Ryan Santoso should assure another solid special teams grade. He's accurate inside of 40 yards and nails a good portion of his longer kicks, too. He could stand to bump that touchback rate up a bit, but he's good. And with the return of both Jalen Myrick and KiAnte Hardin in kick returns, the Gophers seem well suited to shootouts this year. The more kickoffs, the better the special teams advantage.

(No, I don't expect a lot of Gopher shootouts. But I'm just saying.)

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
1-Sep	Oregon State	86	13.4	78%
10-Sep	Indiana State	NR	30.1	96%
24-Sep	Colorado State	96	16.9	84%
1-Oct	at Penn State	28	-7.7	33%
8-Oct	Iowa	38	2.4	56%
15-Oct	at Maryland	62	0.6	51%
22-Oct	Rutgers	87	13.6	78%
29-Oct	at Illinois	76	3.1	57%
5-Nov	Purdue	88	13.7	78%
12-Nov	at Nebraska	26	-8.0	32%
19-Nov	Northwestern	46	5.4	62%
26-Nov	at Wisconsin	37	-4.7	39%
Projected wins: 7.5

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-1.1% (63)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	53 / 58
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	-4 / -4.3
2015 TO Luck/Game	+0.1
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	66% (84%, 48%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	6.2 (-0.2)

10. A fast start is quite conceivable

For all we know, it's going to take Claeys a year to get used to calling the shots. Granted, he got a head start last fall, but his team also lost a couple of games it should have won. Maybe the same thing will happen in 2016. And maybe the pressure from first-round hype leads to more mistakes from Leidner. This could obviously all go wrong.

But if the Gophers have their house in order from the beginning of the season, and if they're at least decent at closing out games ... well ... an 8-1 start is at least on the table.

Per S&P+, they have a below-50 percent chance of winning in only one game in the first nine games, and while there are a few tossups (and you probably can't expect to win all of those), if they handle their business in September, October could have quite a bit of magnitude. And if Claeys is able to skate through this schedule and stick a nine-win total or something on the board, then I'm really curious where his recruiting goes from there.

There's nothing saying his tenure is going to raise the ceiling that Kill established, but you can at least see the path for such a thing. And that's all Minnesota can ask for at this stage.