Ohio State will slip in quality in 2016 ... and maybe win the Big Ten anyway

Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year's team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year's roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

1. Beginning again

Urban Meyer seemed a bit edgy this spring, challenging his team to remain focused in the honeymoon period. He has to break in a new offensive coordinator, figure out what to do about his quarterback situation, find a new big-play receiver and tight end, and attempt to shore up a run defense that wasn't elite.

And, perhaps most importantly, he has to figure out how to keep a team of 20-year-olds from getting too full of itself after it played some of the best football in recent memory.

These are first-world problems. They are problems you would ask to have. But they could be problems nonetheless. The team that few thought should have been in the Playoff is now the team everybody expects to defend its title. Can it?

-- 2015 Ohio State preview

For a while, it looked like Meyer might actually pull it off. After an almost perfect path to the 2014 national title -- an early loss takes the microscope off of you, and you catch fire with as little pressure as possible -- the 2015 title defense was stressful from the start.

Meyer and his assistants couldn't decide on a starting quarterback, then waffled. The Buckeyes stumbled through closer-than-they-should-have-been scraps with NIU and Indiana. They finally hit fourth or fifth gear in late October, beating Penn State and Rutgers by a combined 87-17.

Then, with the finish line in sight, they bumbled into a home loss to Michigan State. It like so many other upset losses -- a "this doesn't feel right" tone at the start, an underdog that doesn't think it's an underdog, and an offense struggling in inclement weather. Just as Meyer had done to Mark Dantonio the year before, MSU's staff coached circles around OSU's, came away with a 17-14 win, and stole the Big Ten title and a CFP bid from under the Buckeyes' noses.

It was a stunning turn of events for a team that seemed to have shaken off its 2014 turnover.

Ohio State rebounded well, destroying Michigan in Ann Arbor and outpacing Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl.

2015 is the past. Quarterback Cardale Jones is gone. So is running back Zeke Elliott. And H-back Braxton Miller. And receivers Michael Thomas and Jalin Marshall. All-American left tackle Taylor Decker and two other offensive line starters. Defensive end Joey Bosa. Tackle Adolphus Washington. Linebackers Joshua Perry and Darron Lee. Corner Eli Apple. Safeties Tyvis Powell and Vonn Bell. Defensive coordinator Chris Ash.

The personalities that defined a team that went 26-2 in 2014-15 have now been mostly filtered out. It's what happens in college football. You hug your stars as they walk out, and you get prepared to root for new ones.

Ohio State still has plenty of star power. But the personality will change even if there's only a little bit of a change in quality. And if the Buckeyes do slip in 2016 (and that's far from a guarantee), it's pretty clear that they will bounce back quickly. That's what happens when you've got a program this sturdy, led by one of the most adept hands in college football.

Meyer burned out at Florida, and maybe he will in Columbus, too. But until that happens, Ohio State will continue to win. Meyer is the second most proven coach in college football. In 14 seasons as a head coach, he has lost just 27 games. He's lost four in four years at OSU. As the Big Ten tries to get its act together overall, the Buckeyes remain the gold standard, the program to beat on a year-to-year basis.

It's just that, in 2016, a couple of teams might actually do it.

This is Bill C's daily preview series, working its way through every 2016 team. Catch up on the Big Ten so far!

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 12-1 | Adj. Record: 13-0 | Final F/+ Rk: 3 | Final S&P+ Rk: 3
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
7-Sep	at Virginia Tech	59	42-24	W	93%	100%	+7.5	+4.0
12-Sep	Hawaii	120	38-0	W	94%	100%	-9.0	-2.0
19-Sep	Northern Illinois	66	20-13	W	78%	89%	-24.7	-28.0
26-Sep	Western Michigan	51	38-12	W	92%	99%	-14.6	-5.5
3-Oct	at Indiana	61	34-27	W	84%	96%	-12.2	-14.0
10-Oct	Maryland	76	49-28	W	83%	99%	+3.1	-12.0
17-Oct	Penn State	47	38-10	W	94%	100%	+23.4	+11.0
24-Oct	at Rutgers	101	49-7	W	96%	100%	+19.7	+21.0
7-Nov	Minnesota	55	28-14	W	83%	95%	-6.0	-9.0
14-Nov	at Illinois	65	28-3	W	97%	100%	+15.6	+9.0
21-Nov	Michigan State	9	14-17	L	54%	36%	-17.3	-16.0
28-Nov	at Michigan	8	42-13	W	98%	100%	+33.4	+29.0
1-Jan	vs. Notre Dame	7	44-28	W	92%	98%	+11.6	+9.0

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	39.9	14	16.0	7
Points Per Game	35.7	28	15.1	2

2. History repeats

One of the most unique aspects of college football is its history. Almost anything that happens has happened before. Just because of the number of years and the number of teams, this sport has a history richer than any other in the United States.

I've entered the home stretch on my latest book, and one of the chapters is on the 1998 Ohio State team, one of the most effortlessly good teams I can remember. The Buckeyes won 11 games, and not a single victory was by fewer than 10 points. They absorbed strong blows from Missouri, Penn State, and Michigan, then eased ahead comfortably.

This was John Cooper's time to break through after years of coming close. But in the middle of all of this domination, on November 7, the Buckeyes blinked. They took a healthy lead on Nick Saban's Michigan State, then fell asleep and lost, 28-24. The second half is one of the most "Holy crap!" halves of football I can remember watching live.

The 2015 Michigan State team was much better than the 1998 team, and unlike Cooper, Meyer's already broken through. Still, a mostly dominant Ohio State lost its title shot at home because of a salty, green underdog.

This was the only game all year in which OSU performed at a level lower than the 78th percentile. Like Florida State the year before, the Buckeyes seemed to go through the motions. But they seemed to have found their cruising altitude.

Blips, man. The blips will get you.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.24	73	IsoPPP+	118.9	19
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	48.6%	10	Succ. Rt. +	123.2	7
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	24.8	1	Def. FP+	23.9	2
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.8	31	Redzone S&P+	118.3	15
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	21.4		ACTUAL	18	-3.4

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	41	11	7	19
RUSHING	11	6	5	12
PASSING	100	26	20	31
Standard Downs		10	3	17
Passing Downs		26	34	24

Q1 Rk	39	1st Down Rk	15
Q2 Rk	19	2nd Down Rk	17
Q3 Rk	6	3rd Down Rk	34
Q4 Rk	14

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Cardale Jones					110	176	1460	8	5	62.5%	13	6.9%	7.4
J.T. Barrett	6'2, 222	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9348	93	147	992	11	4	63.3%	6	3.9%	6.3
Stephen Collier	6'4, 225	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8588
Joe Burrow	6'3, 218	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8970
Dwayne Haskins	6'3, 220	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9550

3. One QB this time

The tired "if you've got two quarterbacks, you've got zero quarterbacks" adage seemed to hold true. The Jones vs. Barrett battle was one of the stories of the offseason, and Meyer went to his most paranoid place, not revealing the starter until the opening series of the Virginia Tech game. (It was Jones.) It made for gripping television. It also made for an awkward situation when Jones struggled and, at times, got replaced by Barrett.

Ohio State's offense was fine for the most part, but the job is now Barrett's. The certainty can't be a bad thing.

Barrett's passer rating sank from 169.8 to 139.2 last year, and while his interception rate also sank, it came at the cost of efficiency. The receiving corps no longer had Devin Smith to pop open the defense with deep balls, and while Michael Thomas was particularly excellent, the passing game lacked consistency. The run game was still incredible, but the offense was less balanced than it was late in 2014, when it was awesome at everything.

That Barrett is back is a good thing, but last year's consistency problems could persist, because of the guys Barrett will be throwing to. Ohio State is projected 14th in S&P+ this year because a) continuity in the receiving corps is vital in terms of year-to-year success and b) Ohio State has none. Curtis Samuel is the only returnee among last year's top six targets. The fourth-leading returning target, Parris Campbell, had three targets and zero catches.

Wherever Barrett looks, he will find plenty of former star recruits running routes. But it might take a little while to get on the same page with them.

That might mean a lot of running early on. And while Barrett is tremendous in that regard, he's going to have newbies back there with him, too.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Ezekiel Elliott	RB					289	1821	23	6.3	6.0	45.0%	2	2
J.T. Barrett	QB	6'2, 222	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9348	109	714	11	6.6	4.8	53.2%	4	2
Cardale Jones	QB					51	262	2	5.1	6.9	41.2%	6	1
Braxton Miller	HB					42	260	1	6.2	6.6	47.6%	3	0
Curtis Samuel	HB	5'11, 197	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9695	17	132	1	7.8	6.3	52.9%	1	1
Bri'onte Dunn	RB					14	91	1	6.5	3.0	64.3%	1	1
Warren Ball	RB					10	28	0	2.8	1.2	40.0%	0	0
Mike Weber	RB	5'10, 212	RSFr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9603
Antonio Williams	RB	5'11, 210	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9261
Demario McCall	RB	5'9, 182	Fr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9761

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Michael Thomas	WR					84	56	781	66.7%	27.5%	9.3	67.9%	59.5%	1.56
Jalin Marshall	WR					61	36	477	59.0%	19.9%	7.8	65.6%	45.9%	1.44
Braxton Miller	HB					38	26	341	68.4%	12.4%	9.0	71.1%	50.0%	1.72
Curtis Samuel	HB	5'11, 197	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9695	35	22	289	62.9%	11.4%	8.3	71.4%	51.4%	1.57
Ezekiel Elliott	RB					29	27	206	93.1%	9.5%	7.1	48.3%	55.2%	1.19
Nick Vannett	TE					26	19	162	73.1%	8.5%	6.2	57.7%	53.8%	1.07
Dontre Wilson	HB	5'10, 195	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9685	12	7	63	58.3%	3.9%	5.3	58.3%	33.3%	1.36
Corey Smith	WR	6'1, 190	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9031	10	5	62	50.0%	3.3%	6.2	70.0%	40.0%	1.41
Parris Campbell	WR	6'1, 208	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9359	3	0	0	0.0%	1.0%	0.0	33.3%	0.0%	0.00
Marcus Baugh	TE	6'5, 258	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9597	2	2	32	100.0%	0.7%	16.0	50.0%	50.0%	3.20
Johnnie Dixon	WR	5'11, 198	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9639	1	1	29	100.0%	0.3%	29.0	0.0%	100.0%	2.29
James Clark	WR	5'10, 186	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.9105	1	0	0	0.0%	0.3%	0.0	100.0%	0.0%	0.00
Noah Brown	WR	6'2, 218	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9187
Terry McLaurin	WR	6'0, 204	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9051
Torrance Gibson	WR	6'4, 215	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9610
K.J. Hill	WR	6'0, 200	RSFr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9304
Alex Stump	WR	6'3, 210	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8973
A.J. Alexander	TE	6'2, 254	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8691
Austin Mack	WR	6'2, 215	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9614
Binjimen Victor	WR	6'4, 185	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9500
Jake Hausmann	TE	6'5, 245	Fr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9414
Luke Farrell	TE	6'6, 245	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9206
Kierre Hawkins	TE	6'3, 245	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8919

4. So, so, so, so, so much turnover

So who is going to be taking handoffs and catching passes?

Mike Weber is an interesting guy to watch. The redshirt freshman could start from day one, and he certainly brings a lot of hype. In terms of recent Ohio State backs, he's built most like Carlos Hyde. As Hyde rushed for 3,200 career yards, I assume Buckeye fans would be okay with a Hyde-like career. Of course, Hyde had to wait his turn, rushing for only 141 yards as a freshman. Weber will be asked to do a lot more.

Curtis Samuel and Dontre Wilson have combined for 83 receptions thus far. They will fill Miller's H-back role. Samuel is a solid possession guy with some burst, and Wilson has always been bouncy and hard to tackle.

With them and tight end Marcus Baugh, Barrett might have solid efficiency options. But what kind of deep threats will he have? That's a complete unknown. The most likely candidates -- four-star sophomores Noah Brown, Campbell, Johnnie Dixon, and Terry McLaurin, incoming freshman Austin Mack, redshirt freshman Torrance Gibson -- have combined for one career catch.

Lord knows athleticism isn't an issue, but you never know how someone will produce until they're asked to produce. Meyer has a track record, and one assumes stars will emerge. But it might take a while.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	120.1	3.37	3.65	47.4%	77.2%	17.9%	105.4	4.8%	7.8%
Rank	8	6	27	2	7	42	52	64	77

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Taylor Decker	LT					13	42	2015 All-American, 2015 1st All-Big Ten
Pat Elflein	C	6'3, 300	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8420	13	29	2015 1st All-Big Ten
Billy Price	RG	6'4, 315	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9157	13	28
Jacoby Boren	C					13	28
Chase Farris	RT					13	13
Jamarco Jones	LT	6'5, 310	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9696	0	0
Demetrius Knox	LG	6'4, 308	So.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9518	0	0
Brady Taylor	C	6'5, 300	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8618	0	0
Evan Lisle	RG	6'6, 308	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9646	0	0
Isaiah Prince	RT	6'7, 310	So.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9496	0	0
Kyle Trout	LT	6'6, 310	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9010	0	0
Matthew Burrell	LG	6'4, 305	RSFr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9493
Kevin Feder	OL	6'8, 305	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8700
Branden Bowen	RT	6'7, 315	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8666
Michael Jordan	LG	6'7, 310	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9387
Malcolm Pridgeon	OL	6'7, 315	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9329
Tyler Gerald	OL	6'5, 310	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9275

5. Not too much concern up front ... I think

The line has decent experience, but only compared to the skill unit. OSU returns all-conference center Pat Elflein and two-year starting guard Billy Price, so there's stability on the interior. And junior Jamarco Jones has patiently waited for his turn in the lineup.

But the other two starting spots will likely go to untested players like sophomores Demetrius Knox and Isaiah Prince, redshirt freshman Matt Burrell, freshman Michael Jordan, etc. This is another instance in which recruiting rankings suggest everything is fine, but we just don't know for sure until we see it.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.19	33	IsoPPP+	133.0	3
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	34.0%	7	Succ. Rt. +	123.3	5
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	34.5	3	Off. FP+	35.0	1
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	3.9	22	Redzone S&P+	129.6	7
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	19.6		ACTUAL	21.0	+1.4

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	9	3	5	3
RUSHING	22	16	34	10
PASSING	16	3	2	5
Standard Downs		6	11	8
Passing Downs		4	8	4

Q1 Rk	12	1st Down Rk	6
Q2 Rk	8	2nd Down Rk	25
Q3 Rk	7	3rd Down Rk	4
Q4 Rk	14

6. Hello again, Greg Schiano

When coordinator Chris Ash left to take the Rutgers head coaching job, Meyer replaced him with ... a former Rutgers head coach. Schiano takes the reins after spending two years with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and disappearing for a couple of seasons.

Schiano has quite a CFB pedigree, even if you have to wipe the dust off. He spent five years as Penn State defensive backs coach, and after a stint with the Chicago Bears, he spent two years as Miami's coordinator and 11 as Rutgers' head man. He's somehow only 50 years old.

Schiano's 2011 Rutgers defense was one of his best. The Scarlet Knights ranked 11th in Def. S&P+, specializing in havoc plays (21.2 percent havoc rate) and efficiency. They allowed only a 52 percent completion rate, content with giving up the occasional big play (58 passes of 20-plus yards, 73rd in FBS) in the name of forcing three-and-outs.

You never know how a college coach will perform after time away, but assuming Schiano's track record still applies, expect a fun, aggressive defense. We'll just have to see how well they toe the line between making big plays and accidentally allowing them.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	109.5	2.61	3.16	30.9%	66.7%	18.7%	157.4	9.2%	7.8%
Rank	36	25	59	7	69	84	4	3	57

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Joey Bosa	DE					12	43.0	6.2%	16.0	5.0	1	4	1	0
Tyquan Lewis	DE	6'4, 266	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8978	13	42.5	6.1%	14.0	8.0	0	1	0	0
Adolphus Washington	DT					12	36.0	5.2%	7.0	4.0	1	1	1	0
Sam Hubbard	DE	6'5, 266	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9230	13	22.0	3.2%	8.0	6.5	1	1	1	0
Tommy Schutt	DT					10	16.0	2.3%	5.0	2.5	0	0	1	0
Jalyn Holmes	DE	6'5, 274	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9622	13	8.0	1.2%	1.5	1.0	0	0	1	0
Michael Hill	DT	6'3, 305	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9240	13	8.0	1.2%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Joel Hale	DT					8	7.0	1.0%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Tracy Sprinkle	DT	6'3, 293	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8594	12	2.5	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Darius Slade	DE	6'4, 258	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8457
Jashon Cornell	DT	6'3, 280	RSFr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9557
Dre'Mont Jones	DT	6'3, 280	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9383
Rashod Berry	DE	6'4, 252	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8568
Davon Hamilton	DT	6'4, 297	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8291
Nick Bosa	DE	6'4, 265	Fr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9965
Jonathan Cooper	DE	6'3, 248	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9801
Malik Barrow	DT	6'2, 288	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8990

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Raekwon McMillan	MLB	6'2, 243	Jr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9894	13	88.0	12.7%	4.0	1.5	0	4	0	0
Joshua Perry	WLB					13	79.0	11.4%	7.5	3.5	0	4	0	0
Darron Lee	SLB					13	51.0	7.4%	11.0	4.5	1	2	2	0
Dante Booker	WLB	6'3, 236	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9721	13	18.0	2.6%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Chris Worley	SLB	6'2, 228	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8675	12	15.0	2.2%	1.5	1.0	0	0	1	0
Cam Williams	MLB					12	10.0	1.4%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Craig Fada	SLB	6'1, 225	Sr.	NR	NR	12	3.5	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jerome Baker	SLB	6'1, 225	So.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9686	7	3.0	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Joe Burger	MLB	6'2, 230	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	NR
Justin Hilliard	WLB	6'1, 230	RSFr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9848
Nick Conner	MLB	6'3, 232	RSFr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9116
Tuf Borland	WLB	6'1, 228	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8933
Keandre Jones	LB	6'2, 218	Fr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9539

7. Play-makers needed ... and plenty of candidates

Sometimes we get distracted by who a team loses, and we don't notice what it returns. Bosa, Washington, Lee, Perry, etc., are all gone from the front seven, but the line in particular seems to have some potential stars.

Tyquan Lewis benefited from offenses' preoccupation with Bosa last year and finished with 14 TFLs and eight sacks; sophomore Sam Hubbard managed eight and 6.5 from a backup role. In limited opportunities, both end Jalyn Holmes and tackle Michael Hill got in on some negative plays.

At linebacker, tackling machine Raekwon McMillan returns, and juniors Dante Booker and Chris Worley finally get a shot after two years each as backups. There is a new layer of recent star recruits -- Justin Hilliard, Nick Conner, Keandre Jones, Tuf Borland -- looking to carve a niche.

The offensive skill positions actually worry me a bit, but I feel comfortable with what OSU has to offer in the defensive front seven despite a similar level of turnover. It appears Schiano will have the tools he needs to attack up front. Depth could be an obvious issue, however.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Tyvis Powell	S					13	56.0	8.1%	0.5	0	3	3	0	0
Vonn Bell	S					13	54.0	7.8%	1	0	2	9	0	1
Gareon Conley	CB	6'0, 195	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9322	13	41.0	5.9%	1	0.5	2	5	0	0
Eli Apple	CB					13	28.0	4.0%	2	0	1	8	0	1
Malik Hooker	S	6'2, 205	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8858	13	8.0	1.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Damon Webb	S	5'10, 195	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9820	7	6.5	0.9%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Denzel Ward	CB	5'10, 185	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.9032	11	6.0	0.9%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Erick Smith	S	6'0, 203	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9665	6	5.5	0.8%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Marshon Lattimore	CB	6'0, 192	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9729	7	4.5	0.7%	0	0	0	3	0	0
Cam Burrows	S	6'0, 205	Sr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9719	3	3.0	0.4%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Jarrod Barnes	S	6'0, 200	Sr.	NR	NR
Eric Glover-Williams	S	5'9, 178	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9523
Joshua Norwood	CB	5'10, 185	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8697
Damon Arnette	CB	6'0, 195	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8597
Jordan Fuller	CB	6'2, 205	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9377
Wayne Davis	DB	5'10, 190	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8912

8. The downside of a tiny rotation

Ash didn't employ a large rotation in the secondary last year, and that could come back to bite OSU in 2016. Only four players made more than eight tackles, and three are gone. The one returnee, corner Gareon Conley, is a keeper, but he's going to need some help.

There is at least a little experience at safety. Malik Hooker and Damon Webb were the primary backups last year, and Cam Burrows was solid as a nickel back in 2014 before missing most of last year with injury.

Cornerback seems pretty dicey. Conley is solid, but the other starting position will probably go to either of two sophomores: Marshon Lattimore or Denzel Ward. They have combined for 10.5 career tackles, but Lattimore showed some promise in breaking up three passes in limited opportunity last year.

If Lattimore fulfills that promise immediately, then all is well. If he doesn't, there could be quite a bit of shuffling between Lattimore, Ward, and younger options like redshirt freshmen Joshua Norwood and Damon Arnette and big true freshman Jordan Fuller.

Schiano will need some youngsters to quickly prove themselves.Otherwise he won't be able to take risks up front.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Cameron Johnston	5'11, 198	Sr.	58	43.9	7	21	22	74.1%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Jack Willoughby			85	60.7	27	7	31.8%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Jack Willoughby			45-45	7-8	87.5%	0-3	0.0%
Sean Nuernberger	6'1, 227	Jr.	17-17	3-4	75.0%	0-0	N/A

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Curtis Samuel	KR	5'11, 197	Jr.	9	23.0	0
Dontre Wilson	KR	5'10, 195	Sr.	7	23.9	0
Jalin Marshall	PR			28	13.5	0
Ezekiel Elliott	PR			2	6.5	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	56
Field Goal Efficiency	111
Punt Return Success Rate	24
Kick Return Success Rate	30
Punt Success Rate	11
Kickoff Success Rate	35

9. Mediocre special teams? From a Meyer team?

Meyer, Kansas State's Bill Snyder, and Duke's David Cutcliffe are perhaps the three best head coaches in the country at steady special teams.

But it's been a couple of years now since Meyer had a great special teams unit, and in 2015, place-kicking was downright problematic. It was basically the only major issue for this unit, but it's an important one. Jack Willoughby and Sean Nuernberger combined to make 83 percent of their field goals inside of 40 yards (not bad) but didn't make a FG over 40 all year. That's a nice club to have in your bag, and Ohio State didn't have it.

Nuernberger returns, but we'll see if he or someone else can become a more reliable weapon. If he does, this should be a fine unit. Losing Jalin Marshall's punt returning is an issue, but there are a lot of strong return man candidates, and Cameron Johnston is an excellent punter.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
3-Sep	Bowling Green	60	16.5	83%
10-Sep	Tulsa	93	24.8	92%
17-Sep	at Oklahoma	4	-9.1	30%
1-Oct	Rutgers	87	22.9	91%
8-Oct	Indiana	56	16.0	82%
15-Oct	at Wisconsin	37	4.6	60%
22-Oct	at Penn State	28	1.6	54%
29-Oct	Northwestern	46	14.7	80%
15-Nov	Nebraska	26	8.3	68%
12-Nov	at Maryland	62	9.9	72%
19-Nov	at Michigan State	22	-0.7	48%
26-Nov	Michigan	6	0.5	51%
Projected wins: 8.1

Five-Year F/+ Rk	44.3% (3)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	5 / 4
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	3 / -1.9
2015 TO Luck/Game	+1.6
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	29% (22%, 36%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	12.1 (-0.1)

10. Surely not, right?

Ohio State has less returning production than almost anybody in the country and, per S&P+, is projected to stumble a bit in 2016. The Buckeyes are projected only 14th despite a lengthy run of success and strong recruiting, and that rating translates to quite a few tossup games.

They are given only a 51 percent chance of beating Michigan at home, 54 percent of winning at Penn State, and 60 percent of winning at Wisconsin. They are projected to lose at Oklahoma and (however slightly) Michigan State.

The rebound will likely be fierce in 2017, but there will likely be regression this fall. But that can almost work in Ohio State's favor. The Buckeyes face little pressure (at least by their standards) and can play loosely and aggressively. Meanwhile, Michigan has a very clear opportunity to surge forward and steal the division title but also faces quite a bit of pressure to do so.

All I'm going to say is, if you're Penn State or Maryland or Michigan or whoever, this would be a very good year to take Ohio State down. If you can't this year, you probably won't in 2017.