Baylor will play football in 2016. Guess we should talk about that.

Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year's team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year's roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

1. This is a football preview

This preview series begins in February and continues for six months. The schedule is arranged at the start, and then the boulder rolls downhill for the next six months.

Baylor's turn under the microscope came up just as the school was firing head coach Art Briles for a series of acts that ranged from foolish to mortifying. You can find all the details about that here. You probably have already.

We elected to postpone the Baylor preview for reasons both related and unrelated to football. On the practical side, it didn't make sense to preview a team that was in the middle of losing quite a few signees and transfers. Waiting a while would allow the dust to settle in that regard.

Really, it just didn't make sense to talk about football at all. Baylor University put on a How to Lose Your Soul and Morals in the Name of Winning Football master class. It was a perfect demonstration of how to endanger the students on your campus in the name of entertaining them. People who had to be trustworthy were not.

Granted, this is only about Baylor for the moment. Soon it will be about someone else. The cultural issues, the circumstances that have failed to stem sexual assault problems on campus -- both within athletic programs and outside of them -- remain the same.

There were plenty of unique circumstances and terrible decisions that helped to create Baylor's mess. But these problems will continue until we address at least one very specific issue: So many women find difficulty when it comes to reporting an incident to proper authorities, as Baylor illustrated in several ways.

"Will the school take this seriously? Will fans find my name? Is this even worth it?" These are real thoughts that go through a victim's head. It happened at Baylor, and it happens elsewhere. That school administrators could so thoroughly lose sight of their duties is terrifying, but as fans, we don't have direct control over that.

We do, however, have control over acting like human beings.

Fans are the greatest thing about sports. The identity, the camaraderie, the passion, etc. Without fans, sports don't exist. Fans are also the worst thing about sports. Winning is intoxicating, and we turn against anything or anyone who might prevent it. We create conspiracy theories. We lash out. We search the internet for personal information of those standing in our way. We become something far less than human.

I'm talking about the fans of schools who have been involved in things like this in recent years, going on social media to reveal the identity of a woman who's made claims, making her life hellish in public, and attempting to punish her for allegations that could hurt the team whose colors you root for.

I'm also talking about many of the rival fans who hold themselves above that behavior, but would have done the same thing. The ones who tweet about "#RapeScandals" to rival recruits, who pile on because of ESPN's Outside the Lines reports, then rage against ESPN when the microscope is turned on their own school.

Universities have a lot to fix, but this is the thing fans can do to help solve the problem: Take claims seriously and show human respect for women who tell authorities about crimes.

Humanity trumps fandom. We frequently get opportunities to prove we understand this, and we frequently fail.

Baylor's going to play a 2016 football season. Here's a look at it.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 10-3 | Adj. Record: 11-2 | Final F/+ Rk: 14 | Final S&P+ Rk: 14
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
4-Sep	at SMU	106	56-21	W	85%	100%	+8.8	-1.0
12-Sep	Lamar	N/A	66-31	W	85%	100%	-9.5
26-Sep	Rice	123	70-17	W	98%	100%	+19.3	+18.0
3-Oct	vs. Texas Tech	60	63-35	W	87%	99%	+15.1	+11.0
10-Oct	at Kansas	127	66-7	W	89%	100%	+25.4	+14.5
17-Oct	West Virginia	31	62-38	W	89%	98%	+24.7	+3.0
24-Oct	Iowa State	79	45-27	W	91%	100%	-7.3	-19.0
5-Nov	at Kansas State	81	31-24	W	67%	91%	-11.2	-10.0
14-Nov	Oklahoma	4	34-44	L	55%	33%	-12.2	-12.5
21-Nov	at Oklahoma State	40	45-35	W	81%	93%	+7.7	+10.0
27-Nov	at TCU	19	21-28	L	50%	30%	-10.4	-8.5
5-Dec	Texas	68	17-23	L	29%	29%	-30.5	-26.5
29-Dec	vs. North Carolina	24	49-38	W	82%	89%	+5.9	+9.0

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	43.7	1	28.2	64
Points Per Game	48.1	1	28.3	79

2. The QB position is evidently important

A few months back, when we last saw Baylor on the field, we were watching the Bears beat a pretty good team despite basically not having a quarterback.

In seven games with Seth Russell, the Bears were as consistently strong as ever. They were destroying decent teams like Texas Tech (by 28 points) and West Virginia (by 24) and obliterating lesser teams. Both S&P+ and Vegas were struggling to keep up with how good Baylor looked.

But then Russell injured his neck against Iowa State and was lost for the season. Blue-chip freshman Jarrett Stidham took over and looked respectable, but then he got hurt. QB-turned-WR-turned-QB Chris Johnson moved into the lineup, struggled quite a bit in the passing game, then got hurt, too. Baylor played most of the Texas game with slot receiver Lynx Hawthorne the No. 1 QB.

The result was predictable. It's hard to maintain consistency when you can't keep a quarterback healthy.

• First 7 games:
  Record: 7-0 | Avg. Percentile Performance: 89% (~top 15) | Avg. Score: BU 61, Opp 25 (+36) | Avg. Performance vs. S&P+ projection: +10.9 PPG
• Last 6 games:
  Record: 3-3 | Avg. Percentile Performance: 61% (~top 50) | Avg. Score: BU 33, Opp 32 (+1) | Avg. Performance vs. S&P+ projection: -8.5 PPG

The offense was so good in the first seven games (plus the bowl) that BU ranked first in Off. S&P+ despite the injuries. That is astounding.

This is what Grobe inherits. The 64-year-old former Wake Forest and Ohio head coach was named the interim for 2016, and he walks into a situation with more pure talent than he has ever coached.

Baylor recruiting is a shambles, in part because of the scandal and in part because there won't be a permanent staff until about December. But as far as 2016 goes, the hire of Grobe makes some sense. He has the prior reputation of being a good guy, and he is used to attempting to win in difficult circumstances (even if Wake's definition of "difficult" is far different than Baylor's at the moment).

The roster attrition of the last couple of months has created pockets of tenuous depth -- Stidham and Johnson are gone, among others, which means drop-off will be significant if Russell gets hurt -- but the starting 22 should still be one of the Big 12's best. We'll just have to see how much of the 22 can stay on the field.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.38	19	IsoPPP+	123.6	14
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	50.3%	5	Succ. Rt. +	112.0	26
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	30.6	87	Def. FP+	29.9	72
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	5.6	1	Redzone S&P+	118.3	14
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	23.4		ACTUAL	26	+2.6

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	1	15	26	14
RUSHING	2	26	32	28
PASSING	24	9	29	7
Standard Downs		7	16	7
Passing Downs		54	79	47

Q1 Rk	4	1st Down Rk	21
Q2 Rk	54	2nd Down Rk	16
Q3 Rk	11	3rd Down Rk	32
Q4 Rk	39

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Seth Russell	6'3, 220	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8570	119	200	2104	29	6	59.5%	3	1.5%	10.3
Jarrett Stidham					75	109	1265	12	2	68.8%	9	7.6%	10.3
Chris Johnson					22	50	302	3	3	44.0%	1	2.0%	5.9
Lynx Hawthorne	6'0, 200	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8448	11	23	66	0	2	47.8%	1	4.2%	2.1
Zack Bennema	6'4, 225	RSFr.	NR	NR
Zach Smith	6'4, 225	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8809
Preston Heard	5'10, 185	Fr.	NR	NR

3. Wrap Seth in bubble wrap

Russell's completion rate could have been higher, but for the most part he was playing the role of Perfect Baylor Quarterback before he got hurt. I mean, seriously? 10.3 yards per attempt? Three sacks in 203 pass attempts? 29 touchdowns to six INTs? Those are ridiculous numbers, and the only reason he wasn't getting serious Heisman hype when he went down is because we've come to expect ridiculous from Baylor quarterbacks. It's almost impossible to stand out statistically at this point.

If Russell's healthy, it's hard to imagine this offense struggling, especially with Kendal Briles still calling the plays.

But if Baylor goes through the same injury crisis as last year ... well ... I went ahead and listed a couple of walk-ons above, just in case.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Shock Linwood	RB	5'9, 200	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8460	198	1329	10	6.7	5.6	50.5%	1	1
Johnny Jefferson	RB	5'10, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8681	136	1000	8	7.4	5.6	54.4%	2	2
Devin Chafin	RB					121	583	9	4.8	2.4	43.0%	3	2
Terence Williams	RB	6'2, 225	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9079	88	556	3	6.3	4.3	51.1%	0	0
Seth Russell	QB	6'3, 220	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8570	46	414	6	9.0	9.4	52.2%	2	1
Chris Johnson	QB/WR					33	113	1	3.4	2.5	42.4%	4	3
Jarrett Stidham	QB					27	119	2	4.4	2.4	40.7%	1	1
Corey Coleman	WR					24	105	0	4.4	6.3	37.5%	0	0
Lynx Hawthorne	WR	6'0, 200	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8448	16	145	2	9.1	7.9	62.5%	2	2
JaMycal Hasty	RB	5'9, 200	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8068

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Corey Coleman	WR					121	74	1363	61.2%	32.4%	11.3	72.7%	52.1%	2.12
KD Cannon	WR	6'0, 180	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9853	92	51	881	55.4%	24.7%	9.6	68.5%	48.9%	1.85
Jay Lee	WR					59	38	758	64.4%	15.8%	12.8	69.5%	59.3%	2.10
Chris Platt	IR	5'11, 170	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8601	24	11	155	45.8%	6.4%	6.5	75.0%	37.5%	1.60
Davion Hall	IR					14	5	77	35.7%	3.8%	5.5	71.4%	35.7%	1.46
Ishmael Zamora	WR	6'4, 220	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8834	12	10	156	83.3%	3.2%	13.0	83.3%	75.0%	1.68
Lynx Hawthorne	IR	6'0, 200	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8448	12	10	95	83.3%	3.2%	7.9	66.7%	66.7%	1.13
Shock Linwood	RB	5'9, 200	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8460	9	9	71	100.0%	2.4%	7.9	55.6%	66.7%	1.18
Gus Penning	TE					8	6	109	75.0%	2.1%	13.6	87.5%	62.5%	1.96
Chris Johnson	QB/WR					3	3	37	100.0%	0.8%	12.3	66.7%	66.7%	1.74
Quan Jones	WR	6'5, 220	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8628	3	3	34	100.0%	0.8%	11.3	100.0%	66.7%	1.64
Jordan Feuerbacher	TE	6'4, 255	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8514	2	0	0	0.0%	0.5%	0.0	50.0%	0.0%	0.00
Blake Lynch	IR	6'3, 205	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9199
Pooh Stricklin	WR	6'2, 185	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8782
Sam Tecklenburg	TE	6'3, 270	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8432
Jared Atkinson	WR	6'2, 200	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8781

4. Big-play guys: gone. Efficiency guys: back.

In part because of late-season issues, Baylor's efficiency numbers weren't as strong as they could have been, but big plays were still a huge asset.

That balance could flip. Russell isn't the most efficient passer, but in Shock Linwood, Johnny Jefferson, and Terence Williams, Russell should share the backfield with three backs who each managed an opportunity rate over 50 percent in 2015. Their level of explosiveness wasn't quite what we're used to from Baylor running backs, but until defenses were able to gang up on the run (i.e., when non-passers started taking snaps at QB), they were consistent and efficient.

Baylor might have to lean on that more. Coleman and Jay Lee combined to catch 8.6 passes per game (again, with no QB for part of the season) at 18.9 yards per catch and 11.8 yards per target. They were incredible big-play threats. You never know if the next batch is going to be as effective deep.

QB issues distracted us, but Baylor's receiving corps was thinner than expected. Coleman, Lee, and KD Cannon were the only three players targeted at least 25 times, and Cannon is the only returnee who caught more than 11 passes last year.

One assumes that among players like Hawthorne, sophomore Chris Platt, and Blake Lynch on the inside and sophomore Ishmael Zamora, and redshirt freshman Pooh Stricklin on the outside, someone will step up. But that didn't ring true a year ago; this unit has more to prove than normal, and leaning on the run might be the preferable option.

(Then again, with the typical Baylor schedule -- the season starts with three non-conference games, all against opponents projected 98th or worse -- the Bears will have plenty of time to break in younger weapons.)

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	110.4	3.84	3.08	49.0%	76.1%	13.0%	197.9	2.2%	6.0%
Rank	23	1	78	1	14	2	10	15	38

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Spencer Drango	LT					13	48	Outland Trophy finalist, 2015 All-American, 2015 1st All-Big 12
Jarell Broxton	RG					13	21	2015 1st All-Big 12
Kyle Fuller	C	6'5, 310	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8766	13	26	2015 2nd All-Big 12
Blake Muir	LG					13	26
Pat Colbert	RT					12	20
Desmine Hilliard	RG					0	18
Blake Blackmar	LG	6'5, 345	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8417	1	1
Ishmael Wilson	LT	6'4, 305	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9153	0	0
Rami Hammad	RG	6'4, 340	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8962	0	0
Dom Desouza	LT	6'6, 295	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8387	0	0
Mo Porter	RT	6'5, 310	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8741	0	0
Tanner Thrift	RG	6'5, 305	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8032	0	0
Patrick Lawrence	RT	6'6, 310	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8342	0	0
Josh Pelzel	OL	6'6, 320	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8585	0	0

5. Rebuild up front, part 1

Baylor has been really good in the trenches. Last year's line kept an extraordinarily clean backfield, which made it even more jarring how many injuries the QBs suffered.

But with four starters and the top backup gone, the 2016 line is almost guaranteed to suffer more glitches.

All-conference center Kyle Fuller is back, and the pipeline features four former four-star recruits, including juniors Ishmael Wilson and Rami Hammad. [Update: Hammad was suspended from team activities after a stalking arrest earlier this month.] Size won't be an issue (average size of the 11 linemen listed above: 6'5, 321), but while the down-to-down success should be there, BU will have to deal with a few more breakdowns.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.20	37	IsoPPP+	117.6	18
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	39.3%	49	Succ. Rt. +	110.5	32
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	30.3	55	Off. FP+	30.3	56
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.7	97	Redzone S&P+	102.3	63
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	23.5		ACTUAL	26.0	+2.5

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	61	21	32	18
RUSHING	56	18	32	18
PASSING	76	35	31	40
Standard Downs		11	26	10
Passing Downs		60	53	61

Q1 Rk	40	1st Down Rk	23
Q2 Rk	12	2nd Down Rk	28
Q3 Rk	25	3rd Down Rk	29
Q4 Rk	62

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	113.1	2.59	3.62	35.6%	61.7%	23.0%	99.9	6.0%	8.8%
Rank	19	24	107	35	36	26	66	35	37

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jamal Palmer	DE					13	48.5	6.2%	14.5	5.5	0	1	4	0
Shawn Oakman	DE					12	37.5	4.8%	14.5	4.5	0	0	2	0
Andrew Billings	NT					12	35.0	4.5%	14.0	5.5	0	0	1	0
Beau Blackshear	DT					11	20.0	2.5%	4.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
K.J. Smith	DE	6'2, 265	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8553	13	19.0	2.4%	5.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Brian Nance	DE					13	7.5	1.0%	3.0	2.0	0	1	2	0
Byron Bonds	DT	6'2, 290	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8163	8	4.5	0.6%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Greg Roberts	DE	6'6, 260	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8249	5	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Andrew Morris	NT	6'1, 285	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8004
Xavier Jones	DE	6'3, 245	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8311
Jamie Jacobs	DE	6'5, 255	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8157
Ira Lewis	NT	6'3, 300	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8138
Tyrone Hunt	DT	6'5, 280	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7719
Bravvion Roy	NT	6'1, 315	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8913

6. Rebuild up front, part 2

Baylor's been so offensively dominant for so long: seventh or better in Off. S&P+ for five straight seasons, third or better in four.

When they were at their best under Briles, they required only top-40 defensive efforts. They went 16-2 in the Big 12 in 2013-14 with defenses that ranked 26th and 39th, respectively, in Def. S&P+. In 2015, they fell to 64th and lost three games for the first time in three years.

Most of 2015's issues came in the redzone. Baylor had top-40 efficiency and explosiveness ratings but allowed 4.7 points per scoring opportunity. And that was with a strong defensive front.

This year's biggest defensive issue is the same as its biggest offensive issue: a rebuild in the trenches. All four of last year's starters are gone, leaving junior ends K.J. Smith and no other proven options.

Senior Byron Bonds (the "leading" returning tackler among the DTs with 4.5) and JUCO transfer Jeremy Faulk ended spring on the first string, but now Faulk has left the team. For a unit that was already low on contributors in the middle, so much change has to be a serious concern. A sturdy line has been so important to Baylor's defensive efforts, and it doesn't appear the Bears will have one this year.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Grant Campbell	MLB					13	80.0	10.2%	5.0	2.5	0	1	0	0
Taylor Young	WLB	5'10, 225	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7893	12	70.0	8.9%	13.5	4.0	0	1	0	0
Aiavion Edwards	WLB	6'1, 230	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8896	13	50.0	6.4%	4.0	2.0	0	2	1	0
Raaquan Davis	MLB	6'2, 225	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8712	13	19.5	2.5%	1.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kendall Ehrlich	LB					13	6.0	0.8%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Clay Johnston	WLB	6'3, 220	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8378
Jordan Williams	WLB	6'1, 220	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7933
Deonte Williams	LB	6'2, 215	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8656

7. The pass rush was lacking

As sturdy as the run defense was, even with last year's starting four, Baylor ranked only 66th in Adj. Sack Rate. And now every lineman responsible for at least one sack is gone.

The middling pass rush contributed to problems on passing downs. Opponents were able to use draw plays with nice effect, and the pass rush didn't get home enough to justify the risk.

We'll see if coordinator Phil Bennett plays things more conservatively. If the line isn't as disruptive, he'd have a choice between getting more aggressive in blitzing with his linebackers and safeties or pulling back into more of a bend-don't-break tendency. Knowing Bennett, it would be the former.

At the least, he'd still has a nice attacker in Taylor Young, who recorded 13.5 TFLs (mostly against the run) as a sophomore. Linebacker depth could quickly become a concern if either Young or Alavion Edwards gets hurt, but they are solid options in the middle, and as long as they're on the field, the LB unit is proven.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Travon Blanchard	NB	6'2, 210	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8516	13	75.0	9.5%	7.5	2	2	6	4	0
Chance Waz	S	6'0, 185	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8229	13	62.0	7.9%	1	0	0	3	0	0
Orion Stewart	S	6'2, 205	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7000	10	57.0	7.3%	1.5	1	1	3	1	0
Xavien Howard	CB					13	39.5	5.0%	1	0	5	10	0	1
Taion Sells	S	5'10, 190	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8306	13	39.0	5.0%	3.5	0	1	3	0	0
Ryan Reid	CB	5'11, 190	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9020	13	24.5	3.1%	1	0	3	8	0	0
Patrick Levels	NB	5'11, 195	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8133	13	16.0	2.0%	2	1	0	2	1	0
Terrell Burt	S					10	15.5	2.0%	1	0	1	1	0	0
Alfred Pullom	S					9	6.0	0.8%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Tion Wright	CB	5'10, 180	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8056	10	3.0	0.4%	0	0	1	0	0	0
Tyler Jaynes	NB	6'2, 205	Jr.	NR	NR	8	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Verkedric Vaughns	CB	5'10, 195	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8392	11	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Davion Hall	S	6'2, 205	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9753
Jourdan Blake	S	6'0, 185	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8543
Jordan Tolbert	CB	5'11, 180	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8579
Tony Nicholson	CB	5'10, 190	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8529
Henry Black	S	6'0, 200	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8472
Jameson Houston	CB	6'2, 200	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8249

8. All the safeties you need

If the front six holds up, the secondary should be good enough to make plays. There could be issue at cornerback, where Ryan Reid is the only returning regular. But the safety position is loaded.

Travon Blanchard is a fantastic nickel, combining aggressive pass defense (eight passes defensed) with lots of time in the backfield (7.5 TFLs). Junior Chance Waz and seniors Orion Stewart, Taion Sells, and Patrick Levels are all solid, too. If an even decent corner option emerges -- redshirt freshman Jameson Houston or Henry Black? Junior Davion Hall? Sophomore Verkedric Vaughns? -- he'll have cover behind him. If the run defense doesn't crater, the pass defense should be fine.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Drew Galitz	6'0, 205	So.	40	40.7	0	15	11	65.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Spencer Evans			106	60.0	39	3	36.8%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Chris Callahan	5'9, 205	Jr.	83-83	8-10	80.0%	0-3	0.0%
Spencer Evans			0-0	0-0	N/A	0-1	0.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Chris Platt	KR	5'11, 170	So.	13	27.6	0
KD Cannon	KR	6'0, 180	Jr.	7	16.3	0
Lynx Hawthorne	PR	6'0, 200	Sr.	10	5.0	0
Corey Coleman	PR			3	3.0	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	124
Field Goal Efficiency	113
Punt Return Success Rate	97
Kick Return Success Rate	68
Punt Success Rate	120
Kickoff Success Rate	83

9. Dreadful and experienced

Returning almost everyone from a bad unit isn't necessarily the best thing in the world, but if there's a plus with Baylor's special teams unit, it's that last year's biggest weakness (punting) was rarely used, and the best returning strength (Chris Platt in kick returns) will probably be used frequently.

That's only so much of a positive, though. Despite a great offense, Baylor ranked only 71st in field position margin last year. That will become a more important factor if either the offense or defense regress this fall.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
3-Sep	Northwestern State	NR	49.7	100%
10-Sep	SMU	98	26.6	94%
16-Sep	at Rice	119	26.4	94%
24-Sep	Oklahoma State	23	7.3	66%
1-Oct	at Iowa State	71	11.6	75%
15-Oct	Kansas	112	32.4	97%
29-Oct	at Texas	34	3.7	58%
5-Nov	TCU	31	10.2	72%
12-Nov	at Oklahoma	4	-9.1	30%
19-Nov	Kansas State	67	17.9	85%
25-Nov	vs. Texas Tech	43	9.9	72%
3-Dec	at West Virginia	33	3.7	58%
Projected wins: 9.0

Five-Year F/+ Rk	35.3% (10)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	27 / 30
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	0 / 0.1
2015 TO Luck/Game	0.0
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	69% (71%, 66%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	10.6 (-0.6)

10. Baylor's still going to be pretty good (this year)

The S&P+ projected win totals above remind us that the schedule starts pretty easy, no matter the coach or contents of the two-deep.

But the hire of Grobe is so unique that it's impossible to predict the effect. When Arkansas fired Bobby Petrino in the spring of 2012 and replaced him with John L. Smith, the Razorbacks plummeted from 11-2 to 4-8. Grobe isn't Smith, and Arkansas' 2012 team didn't feature the amount of raw offensive talent that Grobe inherits.

Under Briles, Baylor went from laughingstock to Big 12 power. The Bears went from having a stadium with tarped and covered seating to a fancy new house on the Brazos River.

He blew it all by forgetting where the line was between winning games and being a human being. He leaves with another black cloud hanging over the program, one of his own doing.

The Bears will play football this year. And if they can avoid a nasty battle with the injury bug, they should be pretty good at it. The defense is probably not going to be disruptive enough for Baylor to make a Big 12 title run, but ambition went out the window a couple of months ago.

For Baylor's football program itself, this season should be about getting priorities back in proper order and bracing for a strange, thin future.