USC didn't make a flashy hire this time. But anybody can win with this talent, right?

Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year's team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year's roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

1. Prolonging the magic

I've been spending a good portion of this offseason diving into college football's strange history. I'm done with about three-quarters of the chapters for my second book (The 50 Best* College Football Teams of All-Time), and to accompany that, I've crept back to the early-1970s in what is basically a year-to-year Study Hall almanac of sorts.

My Study Hall posts have centered around an estimated version of my S&P+ ratings, which gives teams an annual percentile grade, like standardized tests. In the history of college football, only eight programs have hit the 99th percentile in at least seven seasons. Nobody else has done it more than four times.

• 14: Alabama
• 11: Notre Dame
• 8: Michigan, Oklahoma, USC
• 7: Florida State, Miami, Nebraska

Of these eight programs, two have done all of their damage within the last 40 years (FSU, Miami), two in the last 60 (Nebraska, Oklahoma), and two haven't had a 99th-percentile team for at least 25 years (Michigan, Notre Dame).

That leaves just two programs who achieved blue-blood status nearly 100 years ago and have recently put together a run of dominant form: Alabama and USC. They play each other on the opening Saturday of the 2016 season.

Both programs have achieved all their dominance within the tenures of only four coaches. And for the most part, these successful coaches had almost no school ties before they were hired.

For Bama, Wallace Wade (99th-percentile teams: 1925, 1930) was a Brown graduate and a Vanderbilt assistant. Frank Thomas (1934, 1945) was a Notre Dame grad and former Georgia assistant and Chattanooga head coach. Bear Bryant (1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978) was a Thomas protege and Bama grad, but had 13 years of head coaching experience elsewhere. Nick Saban (2009, 2011, 2012, 2014, 2015) is a Kent State grad and was a nomad.

It's the same story for USC. Howard Jones (1931, 1932) graduated from Yale and spent eight years at Iowa (and one at Duke). John McKay (1972) was an Oregon grad and had spent nine years as an Oregon assistant and just one as a USC assistant. John Robinson (1978) was also an Oregon grad and former Oregon assistant; he spent three years as McKay's offensive coordinator, then took over in 1976. Pete Carroll (2002, 2004, 2005, 2008) was another nomad and about the seventh choice for the job in late 2000.

After Bryant's retirement, Alabama tried to keep the Bear magic alive. Among the Crimson Tide's post-Bryant hires were former Bryant receiver Ray Perkins, former Bryant assistant Gene Stallings, former Bryant defensive lineman Mike DuBose and former Perkins quarterback Mike Shula. Stallings had 11 years of head coaching experience in both college and the NFL, and he was the only one to briefly succeed at an elite level. It wasn't until they brought in Saban, an outsider, that they maintained eliteness.

USC is in the middle of a similar stage. When Carroll left for the NFL, Garrett brought back former offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin. When Kiffin didn't work, new athletic director Pat Haden replaced him with Carroll's other former offensive coordinator, Steve Sarkisian. When Sarkisian was dismissed last season, Haden replaced him with Kiffin's quarterbacks coach and Sarkisian's offensive coordinator, Clay Helton.

The thinking is easy to understand: You can't do this job unless you understand it, and you can't understand it unless you've been here for a while. (At USC, that has extended to the athletic director's office -- the last three ADs have also been former USC stars: Garrett, Haden, and now Lynn Swann.)

Recent evidence doesn't support this, however.

On the bright side, this is a small sample size. Maybe Helton is the guy to break this string. He has a unique set of ties beyond Southern California. He went to school at Auburn and Houston. His pre-USC stops were in Duke, Houston, and Memphis. His dad was Howard Schnellenberger's first offensive coordinator at Miami and Houston's head coach for much of the 1990s. His experience is not Sarkisian's or Kiffin's or DuBose's or Shula's or anyone else's.

Maybe Helton will thrive. He's got talent. But it's pretty easy to feel like Haden made a lazy hire.

This is Bill C's daily preview series, working its way through every 2016 team. Catch up on the Pac-12 so far!

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 8-6 | Adj. Record: 12-2 | Final F/+ Rk: 17 | Final S&P+ Rk: 17
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
5-Sep	Arkansas State	71	55-6	W	100%	100%	+31.9	+22.0
12-Sep	Idaho	114	59-9	W	99%	100%	+11.2	+7.0
19-Sep	Stanford	6	31-41	L	78%	47%	-17.2	-20.0
26-Sep	at Arizona State	50	42-14	W	97%	100%	+24.6	+22.5
8-Oct	Washington	13	12-17	L	61%	24%	-24.9	-22.0
17-Oct	at Notre Dame	7	31-41	L	67%	32%	-8.1	-3.0
24-Oct	Utah	22	42-24	W	80%	69%	+12.2	+14.5
31-Oct	at California	29	27-21	W	74%	55%	+0.5	0.0
7-Nov	Arizona	77	38-30	W	82%	83%	-15.3	-10.0
13-Nov	at Colorado	94	27-24	W	68%	65%	-17.1	-13.5
21-Nov	at Oregon	23	28-48	L	15%	0%	-24.7	-16.0
28-Nov	UCLA	28	40-21	W	73%	45%	+16.4	+16.0
5-Dec	vs. Stanford	6	22-41	L	45%	4%	-18.3	-14.5
30-Dec	vs. Wisconsin	32	21-23	L	71%	37%	-5.1	-5.0

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	39.6	15	24.7	43
Points Per Game	33.9	37	25.7	50

Part of Haden's rationale for promoting Helton from interim head coach to full-timer is that he steered the USC ship pretty well following Sarkisian's awkward dismissal. Under strange circumstances, avoiding collapse is an accomplishment.

That said, the on-field quality regressed significantly after Sarkisian's departure.

• First 5 games:
  Record: 3-2 | Average percentile performance: 87% (~top 15) | Yards per play: USC 7.5, Opp 5.0 (+2.5)
• Next 5 games:
  Record: 4-1 | Average percentile performance: 74% (~top 35) | Yards per play: USC 6.0, Opp 5.8 (+0.2)
• Last 4 games:
  Record: 1-3 | Average percentile performance: 51% (~top 65) | Yards per play: Opp 6.6, USC 5.0 (-1.6)

Maybe there were morale reasons. But even accounting for the fact that the schedule was pretty brutal -- three S&P+ top-15 opponents in the first six games, six more opponents ranked 32nd or better thereafter -- USC was a shadow of itself late in the season. The Trojans rallied to thump UCLA and secure the Pac-12 South, but after winning four games in a row in October and November, USC faded.

Maybe it would have happened no matter who was in charge. Helton now gets to prove himself with a full year's template.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.27	62	IsoPPP+	112.3	35
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	44.7%	30	Succ. Rt. +	112.2	23
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	29.5	59	Def. FP+	26.4	10
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.9	28	Redzone S&P+	111.0	33
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	15.6		ACTUAL	12	-3.6

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	38	29	23	35
RUSHING	70	33	31	42
PASSING	31	31	24	33
Standard Downs		27	18	35
Passing Downs		42	49	39

Q1 Rk	37	1st Down Rk	26
Q2 Rk	16	2nd Down Rk	31
Q3 Rk	35	3rd Down Rk	44
Q4 Rk	43

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Cody Kessler					298	446	3536	29	7	66.8%	38	7.9%	6.8
Max Browne	6'5, 220	Jr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9939	8	12	113	0	0	66.7%	0	0.0%	9.4
Jalen Greene	6'1, 200	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8700
Sam Darnold	6'4, 225	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9319
Matt Fink	6'3, 195	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8724

3. Max Browne and blue-chip potential

When you're merely good at USC, you don't garner the respect you should. Cody Kessler was efficient and accurate; he took too many sacks and didn't have the strongest arm, but he was reliably got the ball to his playmakers.

With Kessler, USC's offense was perfectly decent last year, even though it faded with each progressing month. He set the bar in a relatively strange place: high enough that his successor might not clear it and low enough that a QB living up to a blue-chip recruiting rating could clear it by a long shot.

Max Browne was Kessler's backup for the last two years, which is to say that he wasn't as good as Kessler. But as a big-armed junior, he still seems to have plenty of raw tools.

If Browne is able to take advantage of another potentially amazing receiving corps, the Trojans could make enough big plays to live up to assumed upside. But we know almost nothing about his decision-making ability.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Justin Davis	TB	6'1, 200	Sr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9525	169	902	7	5.3	4.8	42.6%	1	0
Ronald Jones II	TB	6'1, 195	So.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9821	153	987	8	6.5	7.1	41.8%	1	0
Tre Madden	TB					85	452	5	5.3	5.0	42.4%	0	0
Cody Kessler	QB					23	99	4	4.3	5.8	30.4%	4	4
Dominic Davis	TB	5'10, 180	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8868	14	69	0	4.9	4.4	42.9%	0	0
Aca'Cedric Ware	TB	6'0, 195	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8711	12	36	1	3.0	1.5	41.7%	0	0
Adoree' Jackson	WR/CB	5'11, 185	Jr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9959	7	36	0	5.1	10.6	28.6%	1	0
James Toland IV	TB	5'11, 195	Jr.	NR	NR
Vavae Malapeai	TB	6'0, 190	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9147

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
JuJu Smith-Schuster	WR	6'2, 220	Jr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9901	135	89	1454	65.9%	30.8%	10.8	60.7%	54.8%	1.80
Steven Mitchell Jr.	WR	5'10, 190	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9698	55	37	335	67.3%	12.5%	6.1	65.5%	47.3%	1.14
Darreus Rogers	WR	6'1, 215	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9503	44	28	289	63.6%	10.0%	6.6	54.5%	43.2%	1.41
Adoree' Jackson	WR/CB	5'11, 185	Jr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9959	28	27	414	96.4%	6.4%	14.8	71.4%	53.6%	2.70
Justin Davis	TB	6'1, 200	Sr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9525	23	18	189	78.3%	5.2%	8.2	52.2%	47.8%	1.52
Tyler Petite	TE	6'5, 235	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9141	23	15	145	65.2%	5.2%	6.3	65.2%	39.1%	1.50
De'Quan Hampton	WR	6'4, 225	Sr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9044	22	15	165	68.2%	5.0%	7.5	59.1%	59.1%	1.18
Tre Madden	TB					21	17	133	81.0%	4.8%	6.3	47.6%	47.6%	1.20
Jalen Greene	QB/WR	6'1, 200	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8700	18	10	104	55.6%	4.1%	5.8	61.1%	55.6%	0.91
Taylor McNamara	TE	6'5, 245	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9069	13	12	83	92.3%	3.0%	6.4	69.2%	76.9%	0.74
Deontay Burnett	WR	6'0, 170	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8584	11	10	161	90.9%	2.5%	14.6	54.5%	81.8%	1.47
Isaac Whitney	WR	6'3, 220	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8733	11	8	112	72.7%	2.5%	10.2	54.5%	54.5%	1.84
Jahleel Pinner	FB					10	5	22	50.0%	2.3%	2.2	70.0%	40.0%	0.49
Ronald Jones II	TB	6'1, 195	So.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9821	9	7	39	77.8%	2.1%	4.3	66.7%	44.4%	0.83
Dominic Davis	TB	5'10, 180	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8868	8	7	102	87.5%	1.8%	12.8	62.5%	62.5%	1.91
Ajene Harris	WR	5'11, 190	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.7941
Jack Jones	WR/CB	5'11, 170	Fr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9853
Tyler Vaughns	WR	6'2, 180	Fr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9800
Michael Pittman Jr.	WR	6'4, 210	Fr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9645
Josh Imatorbhebhe	WR	6'2, 210	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9294
Trevon Sidney	WR	5'11, 170	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9336
Cary Angeline	TE	6'6, 230	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9023
Velus Jones Jr.	WR	6'0, 185	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8727

4. Seductive skill guys

If Browne is a Tee Martin, USC's offense will be just fine. Martin, USC's offensive coordinator, succeeded Peyton Manning at Tennessee in 1998, and while his natural gifts didn't match Manning's, he did a lovely job of distributing the ball and keeping things moving forward. It didn't hurt that he had an incredible selection of skill guys: receiver Peerless Price (61 catches, 920 yards); running backs Travis Henry, Travis Stephens, and Jamal Lewis (combined: 1,944 rushing yards); etc.

Browne might not have a line as effective as Tennessee's that year, but he has the athletes.

Ronald Jones II was reasonably efficient and all sorts of explosive while rushing for 987 yards as a freshman last year. He and veteran Justin Davis could make for a wonderful duo.

The receiving corps features one of the nation's best: junior JuJu Smith-Schuster, who combined high-level efficiency (55 percent success rate) with explosiveness (16.3 yards per catch) and one hell of a stiff arm.

Smith-Schuster probably didn't get as much help as he should have from his supporting cast -- the No. 2 and 3 targets (Steven Mitchell Jr. and Darreus Rogers) averaged just 6.3 yards per target -- but there are more options this year. Helton's first signing class featured six high-upside freshman targets, including five-stars Jack Jones and Tyler Vaughns. Jones appears to be an Adoree' Jackson clone (Jackson splits time at receiver and cornerback), and with this many high-ceiling guys, the odds are good that Smith-Schuster will see more support this year.

And if he does, then ... yikes. Browne will only have to be decent for the offense to end up back in the Off. S&P+ top 15.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	103.2	3.00	3.44	41.1%	68.8%	19.4%	84.0	4.0%	11.9%
Rank	55	47	45	35	44	68	89	44	122

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Zach Banner	RT	6'9, 360	Sr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9683	14	27	2015 2nd All-Pac-12
Max Tuerk	C					5	38
Chad Wheeler	LT	6'6, 310	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8257	13	35
Toa Lobendahn	C	6'3, 295	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9383	7	20
Viane Talamaivao	RG	6'2, 315	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9608	8	19
Damien Mama	LG	6'4, 325	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9808	13	17
Khaliel Rodgers	C	6'3, 315	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9373	6	9
Chris Brown	LG	6'5, 300	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9079	2	2
Nico Falah	C	6'4, 280	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9130	1	1
Chuma Edoga	RT	6'4, 290	So.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9877	1	1
Jordan Simmons	RG	6'4, 325	Sr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9654	0	0
Clayton Johnston	RT	6'6, 285	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8913	0	0
Jordan Austin	OT	6'5, 300	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8400	0	0
Roy Hemsley	LT	6'5, 310	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8872
Cole Smith	C	6'4, 280	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8640
Nathan Smith	OT	6'6, 275	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.8998
E.J. Price	OT	6'6, 325	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9560
Frank Martin II	OT	6'5, 310	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9152

5. Whole vs. sum of parts

Of course, you still need an offensive line. While USC's line was blocking for a freshman running back (part of the time, anyway) and protecting a QB who had the tendency to hold onto the ball too long, USC's line stats were still quite a bit worse than its overall offensive stats. That tends to suggest you have a problem up front.

This makes sense. USC dealt with instability and injury on the line last year, starting 10 guys at least once and seven guys at least five times. And seven of the 10 one-time starters were either freshmen or sophomores.

With all-conference tackle Zach Banner returning, the line does have one star. And if it can mostly stick with whatever the projected starting five ends up becoming, that should help significantly. But we'll see how much of these line problems was due to inexperience and how much was due to lack of pure quality.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.27	73	IsoPPP+	106.8	42
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	42.6%	77	Succ. Rt. +	114.8	21
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	28.0	108	Off. FP+	31.1	40
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.3	55	Redzone S&P+	105.8	42
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	18.0		ACTUAL	23.0	+5.0

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	65	35	21	42
RUSHING	41	30	11	38
PASSING	94	47	37	54
Standard Downs		33	14	48
Passing Downs		40	39	33

Q1 Rk	71	1st Down Rk	27
Q2 Rk	27	2nd Down Rk	59
Q3 Rk	18	3rd Down Rk	41
Q4 Rk	29

6. Welcome back, Clancy

Cal's average Def. S&P+ ranking in its five years before hiring Clancy Pendergast: 48.8.

In the three years since he left: 102.

That makes what he did at Cal pretty impressive. His three Golden Bears defenses ranked 21st, 26th, and 48th.

In his lone year as Lane Kiffin's DC at USC in 2013, his Trojan D ranked eighth. It hadn't been better than 29th in the four previous years and hasn't been better than 35th since.

Pendergast gets results and seems to get them rather quickly. So what can he do in his second USC debut?

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	107.7	2.96	3.16	36.7%	58.1%	17.6%	130.1	6.5%	9.2%
Rank	40	81	59	48	25	96	23	22	30

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Delvon Simmons	DT					14	44.5	5.5%	10.5	4.0	0	2	2	0
Greg Townsend Jr.	DE					14	32.0	3.9%	7.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Antwaun Woods	DT					14	28.5	3.5%	7.0	3.0	0	0	0	0
Stevie Tu'ikolovatu (Utah)	DT	6'1, 320	Sr.	NR	NR	13	21.5	3.3%	6.0	2.0	0	2	0	1
Scott Felix	RUSH					14	21.5	2.6%	5.5	4.0	0	0	0	1
Porter Gustin	RUSH	6'5, 260	So.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9811	14	19.5	2.4%	6.5	5.5	0	0	0	0
Claude Pelon	DE					10	19.0	2.3%	2.5	1.5	0	0	1	0
Noah Jefferson	NT	6'6, 315	So.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9026	14	17.5	2.1%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Rasheem Green	DT	6'5, 280	So.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9893	14	12.5	1.5%	1.0	0.5	0	0	0	1
Kenny Bigelow Jr.	DT	6'3, 295	Jr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9949	13	8.5	1.0%	3.0	3.0	0	1	0	0
Jabari Ruffin	RUSH	6'3, 245	Sr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9719	14	7.0	0.9%	0.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Don Hill	DE	6'2, 240	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8626	5	5.0	0.6%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Malik Dorton	DT	6'2, 280	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8769
Jacob Daniel	NT	6'4, 310	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9646
Christian Rector	DT	6'5, 275	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8753
Josh Fatu	DT	6'3, 290	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8278
Oluwole Betiku Jr.	RUSH	6'3, 250	Fr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9875
Connor Murphy	DE	6'7, 255	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9063

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Su'a Cravens	OLB					14	66.0	8.1%	15.0	5.5	2	6	2	0
Cameron Smith	MLB	6'2, 245	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9189	10	63.0	7.7%	1.0	1.0	3	3	0	0
Anthony Sarao	WLB					14	45.5	5.6%	5.0	3.0	0	0	0	0
Olajuwon Tucker	MLB	6'3, 230	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8871	8	32.0	3.9%	3.5	2.5	0	0	0	0
Lamar Dawson	LB					8	23.0	2.8%	1.0	0.5	0	2	1	0
Uchenna Nwosu	OLB	6'3, 235	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8306	14	22.5	2.8%	1.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
Osa Masina	OLB	6'4, 230	So.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9845	12	21.0	2.6%	1.5	0.0	0	0	0	1
Michael Hutchings	MLB	6'1, 215	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9496	12	9.0	1.1%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Quinton Powell	WLB	6'2, 200	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9259	13	9.0	1.1%	0.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Reuben Peters	MLB	6'0, 225	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8111	6	3.5	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
John Houston Jr.	WLB	6'3, 220	RSFr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9759

7. If this defense underachieves...

...it will be because of the front seven. Pendergast's lone USC defense was fine against the run and spectacular against the pass, and considering turnover, we might see something similar this year.

There are plenty of former star recruits in the mix, but USC has to replace five of last year's top six tacklers on the line and three of five at linebacker. Granted, plenty of linebackers saw the field last year because of injury, but the Trojans must still replace their best run-defending LB in Su'a Cravens.

The USC line had just begun to overcome the depth issues associated with NCAA sanctions; now it has to start over. Goodness knows there's talent -- former blue-chipper Porter Gustin looks like a lab-created rush end. Utah graduate transfer Stevie Tu'ikolovatu proves a boost of experience, as well.

Still, this line didn't provide as much disruption as recruiting rankings would suggest last year, and now most of the first and second string have been lopped off.

Here's where new leadership could provide a boost. Helton didn't stop at bringing in a new defensive coordinator; he rebooted the rest of the defensive staff as well. Former assistant strength coach Kenechi Udeze is the new defensive line coach, Johnny Nansen has moved from running backs coach to linebackers, and secondary coach Ronnie Bradford was brought in from Louisiana Tech. Change doesn't mean improvement, but when it's accompanied by change on the two-deep, it might not be the worst thing in the world.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Chris Hawkins	FS	5'11, 185	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9740	14	55.0	6.8%	1.5	0	2	0	0	1
Iman Marshall	CB	6'1, 200	So.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9985	14	53.0	6.5%	0	0	3	9	0	0
Adoree' Jackson	CB/WR	5'11, 185	Jr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9959	14	29.0	3.6%	0	0	1	8	1	0
John Plattenburg	SS	5'11, 180	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8819	13	28.5	3.5%	3.5	1	2	0	0	0
Marvell Tell III	SS	6'3, 190	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9709	10	27.5	3.4%	1	0	0	4	0	0
Kevon Seymour	CB					11	21.0	2.6%	1	0	1	0	0	0
Jonathan Lockett	CB	5'11, 180	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9231	12	17.5	2.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Leon McQuay III	FS	6'1, 195	Sr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9842	9	14.0	1.7%	1.5	0	0	3	1	0
Matt Lopes	S	5'11, 195	Jr.	NR	NR	9	11.0	1.4%	1.5	0	0	0	0	0
Isaiah Langley	CB	6'0, 170	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9533	11	10.0	1.2%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Ykili Ross	S	6'0, 200	RSFr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9587
Jack Jones	WR/CB	5'11, 170	Fr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9853
C.J. Pollard	DB	6'1, 185	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8999
Jamel Cook	DB	6'3, 185	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9526

8. Almost guaranteed improvement in the back

The USC pass defense was less than the sum of its parts in 2015; despite a top-25 pass rush, the Trojans ranked just 47th in Passing S&P+. But thanks to ever more injuries and shuffling, the top five tacklers in the secondary were all freshmen and sophomores. Even blue-chippers are going to battle through mistakes for a while.

Between extreme continuity (nine of 10 are back), increased experience (five of those nine are now juniors, plus one senior), and the potential upgrade in competition thanks to another batch of potential impact youngsters (sophomore Isaiah Langley, redshirt freshman Ykili Ross, freshmen Jack Jones, C.J. Pollard, and Jamel Cook), it was safe to assume USC's pass defense would improve. And that's without noting Pendergast's typically awesome pass defenses and his adaptability in defending spread offenses. But this unit has speed to burn and is far less green than it was a year ago.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Kris Albarado			65	41.0	3	31	16	72.3%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Alex Wood			65	61.3	10	4	15.4%
Matt Boermeester	6'0, 180	Jr.	22	62.4	1	0	4.5%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Alex Wood			54-56	9-12	75.0%	4-5	80.0%
Matt Boermeester	6'0, 180	Jr.	4-4	0-0	N/A	0-0	N/A

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Adoree' Jackson	KR	5'11, 185	Jr.	30	23.0	0
Justin Davis	KR	6'1, 200	Sr.	11	19.2	0
Adoree' Jackson	PR	5'11, 185	Jr.	24	10.5	2
Christian Tober	PR			2	1.5	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	39
Field Goal Efficiency	71
Punt Return Success Rate	83
Kick Return Success Rate	55
Punt Success Rate	21
Kickoff Success Rate	53

9. Losing solid legs

Adoree' Jackson was all-or-nothing in the return game, taking two punts for scores last year after scoring on two kick returns the year before. He had a lot of nothing returns as well, but he's as dangerous as they come.

That said, losing Kris Albarado and Alex Wood hurts. Wood was volatile -- super accurate on longer kicks but inconsistent no shorter ones -- but Albarado's punts were both high and reasonably long. Wood probably fell into the "replaceable" category, especially with his short kickoffs, but Albarado was particularly solid.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
3-Sep	vs. Alabama	1	-9.6	29%
10-Sep	Utah State	73	20.0	88%
17-Sep	at Stanford	16	-1.6	46%
23-Sep	at Utah	39	6.0	64%
1-Oct	Arizona State	57	17.1	84%
8-Oct	Colorado	82	23.0	91%
15-Oct	at Arizona	64	11.1	74%
27-Oct	California	49	16.0	82%
5-Nov	Oregon	18	5.8	63%
12-Nov	at Washington	10	-3.2	43%
19-Nov	at UCLA	12	-2.7	44%
26-Nov	Notre Dame	11	4.0	59%
Projected wins: 7.7

Five-Year F/+ Rk	33.0% (14)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	2 / 2
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	11 / 2.4
2015 TO Luck/Game	+3.3
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	66% (54%, 77%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	7.6 (0.4)

10. No easing into this

USC will boast a new (full-time) head coach, quarterback, defensive line, and defensive coaches. This is the type of year when you want to feast on a couple of mid-major cupcakes before getting into the meat of your schedule.

Instead, the Trojans are doing the opposite. Three weeks in, USC will have already faced the defending national champion on neutral turf and the defending Pac-12 champion on the road. That would be a brutal way to start for the most experienced two-deep and coaching staff in the country.

Going by S&P+ projections, USC has a 12 percent chance of starting 3-0, a 44 percent chance of starting 2-1, a 40 percent chance of starting 1-2, and a 5 percent chance of starting 0-3. That feels optimistic, but here's your reminder that S&P+ projects USC eighth in the country.

If USC is somehow 2-1 after three games, the Trojans will probably be the Pac-12 favorite. But a 1-2 start won't be the end of the world. USC will have a lot of time to recover before a brutal three-game stretch to finish the season.

In a way, this schedule is a blessing. USC could lose three to five games while playing at a top-10 or top-15 level, and it's so blatantly tough that all but the least tolerant USC fan would probably give Helton a grace period.

I didn't love this hire. When you've got a chance at anybody in the country -- and we all seem to agree that USC could land just about anyone -- you don't have to settle for someone who went 5-4 in an extended audition. But Helton has rearranged his staff and is trying to put his own unique footprint on the program instead of tiptoeing gingerly in others' footsteps. That will give him a shot.