There is no grace period for Kirby Smart at Georgia. He has to win big immediately.

Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year's team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year's roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

1. You better win

Ambition is fine. Aiming high can pay off. But if you aim high and miss, it can set your program back years.

The idea of Glen Mason Territory is based around that idea. Minnesota won more consistently under Mason than under any coach since the 1940s, but he struggled to clear the bar he'd set. He went 18-8 in 2002-03 but followed with 20 wins in the next three years; good for Minnesota, but not good enough. After a 6-7 2006, capped with a huge blown lead in the Insight Bowl, the Gophers dumped Mason in favor of Tim Brewster ... and went 17-33 over the next four seasons. Minnesota didn't win more than seven games until the eighth season after his ouster.

GMT™ is established when fans get frustrated with merely being successful. Once you raise the bar, you have to keep raising it. Perhaps it should be called Mark Richt Territory.

In 15 years, Richt engineered seven top-10 finishes; the Dawgs had only pulled that off 10 times in the 51 years before him. Georgia won 50 games in his final five years, complete with four S&P+ top-15 rankings and two AP top-10 finishes. The Dawgs came within an eyelash of the BCS Championship in 2012.

After the next hint of a true (and brief) drop-off -- UGA won 10 games in 2015 but fell to 32nd in S&P+ -- the school sent Richt packing. I wasn't particularly impressed.

This poor 2015 performance comes on the heels of four consecutive F/+ top-15 finishes (13th in 2011, seventh in 2012, 14th in 2013, fourth in 2014).

Here are the other programs that pulled that off in that same span: Alabama. That's it. Florida State didn't do it. Oregon didn't. Ohio State didn't. But Richt even pulled it off in 2013, with a brutally young defense and receivers exploding like Spinal Tap drummers.

This reminds you of how randomness plays a role in this sport. And while we can say Georgia is a sleeping giant, and that the program should expect better results, here's a dirty little secret: almost no team gets to constantly win at the level we think it should achieve.

Everybody has setbacks and down years and disappointments and random losses and frustration against rivals. But Nick Saban does it far less frequently than anybody else, and that makes people -- especially SEC rivals -- lose their damn minds.

Saban's impossible consistency has driven fanbases and administrations throughout the SEC insane. Richt was fired for not being as successful as him, and LSU's Les Miles nearly suffered the same fate.

Following this line of thinking, it makes sense that Georgia would replace Richt with what they hope is the Next Saban: longtime Alabama defensive coordinator (and UGA grad) Smart.

The 40-year-old product of Bainbridge has an impeccable résumé. He was a defensive coordinator at Valdosta State at age 25, spent two years under Bobby Bowden at Florida State, briefly worked in the NFL, and spent the last nine seasons with Saban. He knows how Saban works, breathes, eats, and operates. He will operate in one of the most fertile recruiting areas of the country, and he will get complete, desperate support from the athletic department and the state government.

And he better win. Immediately.

He inherits a squad that returns two experienced quarterbacks and a blue-chip freshman, one of the best running backs in the country (and one of the better backups), five of last year's top six receiving targets, four offensive linemen with starting experience (plus a three-year FCS starter), an exciting secondary, an athletic defensive front seven, and a schedule that is one of the more manageable in the SEC.

This is Bill C's daily preview series, working its way through every 2016 team. Catch up on the SEC so far!

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 10-3 | Adj. Record: 10-3 | Final F/+ Rk: 30 | Final S&P+ Rk: 32
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
5-Sep	UL-Monroe	121	51-14	W	94%	100%	+9.9	+1.0
12-Sep	at Vanderbilt	83	31-14	W	79%	98%	-5.5	-3.5
19-Sep	South Carolina	88	52-20	W	95%	100%	+17.6	+15.0
26-Sep	Southern U.	N/A	48-6	W	84%	100%	-16.9
3-Oct	Alabama	1	10-38	L	15%	0%	-16.6	-30.0
10-Oct	at Tennessee	18	31-38	L	47%	28%	-4.0	-10.0
17-Oct	Missouri	75	9-6	W	65%	89%	-10.2	-13.0
31-Oct	vs. Florida	27	3-27	L	9%	0%	-20.6	-21.0
7-Nov	Kentucky	91	27-3	W	94%	100%	+6.9	+10.0
14-Nov	at Auburn	33	20-13	W	64%	78%	+4.8	+9.0
21-Nov	Georgia Southern	48	23-17	W	88%	96%	+2.0	-7.5
28-Nov	at Georgia Tech	64	13-7	W	77%	96%	-0.4	+1.0
2-Jan	vs. Penn State	47	24-17	W	62%	70%	+8.2	0.0

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	28.5	71	18.4	11
Points Per Game	26.3	85	16.9	8

2. Funk and recovery

We can say Richt was fired after a disappointing 2015, but really, he was fired for a disappointing October.

• First 4 games:
  Record: 4-0 | Average percentile performance: 88% (~top 15) | Yards per play: UGA 8.3, Opp 4.2 (+4.1) | Performance vs. S&P+ projection: +1.3 PPG
• Next 4 games:
  Record: 1-3 | Average percentile performance: 34% (~top 85) | Yards per play: Opp 5.5, UGA 4.8 (-0.7) | Performance vs. S&P+ projection: -12.9 PPG
• Last 5 games:
  Record: 5-0 | Average percentile performance: 77% (~top 30) | Yards per play: UGA 5.4, Opp 4.6 (+0.8) | Performance vs. S&P+ projection:  +4.3 PPG

October was one of the worst months of Richt's career. It began with a home embarrassment at the hands of (who else?) Alabama, then continued when Chubb, averaging 149 rushing yards per game, suffered a season-ending injury early in a seven-point loss at Tennessee. Georgia scored 12 points the next two weeks against Missouri and Florida, barely eking out a win over the Tigers and getting smoked by the Gators.

Richt's fate was sealed. Georgia couldn't hit the same high notes that it did with Chubb, but was fine in November. The Dawgs beat Kentucky and Auburn, and while they were unlucky to play in close games against Georgia Southern and Georgia Tech (win expectancy, per each game's key stats: 96 percent), they still won. And with a set of interim coaches, they beat Penn State in the TaxSlayer Bowl to finish with 10 wins. In a rebuilding season with a monthlong funk.

October got Richt fired, but September and (to a lesser extent) November reminded us of how sturdy the program was.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.27	61	IsoPPP+	116.4	25
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	42.3%	62	Succ. Rt. +	111.2	29
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	28.0	35	Def. FP+	27.4	24
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	3.9	109	Redzone S&P+	114.2	24
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	23.0		ACTUAL	18	-5.0

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	83	24	29	25
RUSHING	38	22	55	13
PASSING	104	27	13	35
Standard Downs		19	23	20
Passing Downs		44	54	44

Q1 Rk	36	1st Down Rk	22
Q2 Rk	23	2nd Down Rk	8
Q3 Rk	9	3rd Down Rk	12
Q4 Rk	55

3. A Jim Chaney offense

As I've written before, new Georgia coordinator Chaney is one of my personal favorites.

He was Joe Tiller's coordinator during Purdue's renaissance (1997-05), and he spent three years as an NFL assistant (2006-08). He helped to blur the lines between pro-style and spread in four years as Tennessee's O.C., and he has solid results; he improved the Vols from 108th in Off. S&P+ to 27th in 2009, and with an experienced line and two solid receivers, his last Tennessee offense ranked 10th.

Bret Bielema hired him at Arkansas, and after some first-year struggles, he was pulling the strings for a devastating Hog offense that ranked 15th in Off. S&P+.

Chaney does what his personnel dictates. He has succeeded with average quarterbacks (he had a top-30 offense with Jonathan Crompton and a top-15 offense with Brandon Allen), he runs the ball when he's got good backs, and he gets receivers open, even in power sets.

I wrote that before Pitt's 2015, and despite losing star running back James Conner before the season and being forced to lean on freshman running backs and basically a one-man receiving corps, the Panthers ranked 38th in Off. S&P+.

Georgia ranked 71st in Brian Schottenheimer's lone season. It would have ranked much higher if Chubb hadn't gone down (UGA was averaging 8.3 yards per play through the first month), but with limited quarterbacks and only one experienced option in the receiving corps, Schottenheimer couldn't figure out how to move the ball without Chubb.

Limited QBs and thin receiving corps are kind of in Chaney's wheelhouse.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Greyson Lambert	6'5, 234	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9112	162	256	1959	12	2	63.3%	11	4.1%	7.0
Brice Ramsey	6'3, 210	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9518	21	35	249	1	2	60.0%	0	0.0%	7.1
Faton Bauta					15	33	154	0	4	45.5%	1	2.9%	4.4
Jacob Eason	6'5, 235	Fr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9973

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Sony Michel	TB	5'11, 222	Jr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9902	220	1161	8	5.3	7.2	31.8%	5	1
Nick Chubb	TB	5'10, 228	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9835	93	747	7	8.0	8.7	47.3%	1	0
Keith Marshall	TB					68	350	3	5.1	3.3	45.6%	0	0
Brendan Douglas	TB	5'11, 213	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7988	36	140	0	3.9	3.8	27.8%	0	0
Greyson Lambert	QB	6'5, 234	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9112	18	44	1	2.4	2.8	33.3%	5	1
Isaiah McKenzie	WR	5'8, 175	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8917	11	117	2	10.6	8.0	72.7%	5	3
Terry Godwin	WR	5'11, 185	So.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9871	7	37	1	5.3	6.8	57.1%	1	0
Quayvon Hicks	FB					4	9	0	2.3	1.2	25.0%	0	0
Christian Payne	FB	6'1, 242	Jr.	NR	NR
Elijah Holyfield	RB	5'11, 215	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9266

4. Hey, Nick :)

College football has been blessed with running back depth over the last couple of seasons. Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon rushed for nearly 2,600 yards in 2014, and the 2015 national roster was so loaded that Florida State's Dalvin Cook averaged 7.4 yards per carry and didn't even end up a Heisman finalist.

Cook ... LSU's Leonard Fournette ... Stanford's Christian McCaffrey ... Oklahoma's Samaje Perine ... Oregon's Royce Freeman ... San Diego State's Donnel Pumphrey ... college football is stocked with incredible backs.

Before he got hurt, Chubb might have been the best of the bunch.

Let's put it this way: 189 FBS backs rushed at least 90 times in 2015. Nine had an opportunity rate of at least 47 percent, 11 averaged at least 8.5 highlight yards per opportunity, and only Chubb did both. Granted, he did a lot of damage against ULM and Southern (combined: 31 carries, 251 yards), but he did even more damage against top-20 Vanderbilt and Alabama defenses (39 carries, 335 yards).

Chubb's return would have made this a viable offense even with Schottenheimer still in charge. He's that good. And it appears he will be pretty close to 100 percent when the season begins.

He will need to be. Georgia's schedule features North Carolina, Missouri, Ole Miss, and Tennessee among the first five games, and quarterback is still unsettled. The options are either last year's iffy duo (Greyson Lambert and Brice Ramsey, who did average a tolerable 7 yards per attempt) or this year's new toy, five-star freshman Jacob Eason. Eason appears to have the upper hand and boasts every tool imaginable. But true freshmen tend to look like true freshmen, and that's one hell of an early slate.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Malcolm Mitchell	WR-X					92	58	865	63.0%	29.8%	9.4	67.4%	54.3%	1.53
Terry Godwin	SLOT	5'11, 185	So.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9871	57	35	379	61.4%	18.4%	6.6	45.6%	38.6%	1.54
Sony Michel	TB	5'11, 222	Jr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9902	34	26	270	76.5%	11.0%	7.9	58.8%	55.9%	1.26
Jeb Blazevich	TE	6'5, 242	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9381	26	15	144	57.7%	8.4%	5.5	46.2%	42.3%	1.13
Reggie Davis	WR-Z	6'0, 170	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8778	23	12	187	52.2%	7.4%	8.1	65.2%	43.5%	1.71
Isaiah McKenzie	WR-Z	5'8, 175	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8917	17	10	123	58.8%	5.5%	7.2	23.5%	47.1%	1.50
Jay Rome	TE					13	8	88	61.5%	4.2%	6.8	69.2%	46.2%	1.31
Jackson Harris	TE	6'6, 247	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9187	7	4	50	57.1%	2.3%	7.1	42.9%	57.1%	0.96
Keith Marshall	TB					6	4	28	66.7%	1.9%	4.7	33.3%	50.0%	0.83
Michael Chigbu	WR-X	6'2, 213	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8838	4	4	28	100.0%	1.3%	7.0	75.0%	75.0%	0.76
Jayson Stanley	WR	6'2, 207	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9055	4	2	23	50.0%	1.3%	5.8	100.0%	50.0%	1.02
Jordan Davis	TE	6'4, 240	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8675	2	1	24	50.0%	0.6%	12.0	100.0%	50.0%	1.77
Aulden Bynum	TE	6'5, 292	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8640
Javon Wims	WR	6'4, 215	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9025
Isaac Nauta	TE	6'4, 246	Fr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9903
Charlie Woerner	TE	6'5, 251	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9369
Riley Ridley	WR-X	6'2, 197	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9108
Tyler Simmons	WR	6'0, 206	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8822

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	107.7	2.93	3.37	38.0%	54.5%	19.5%	151.0	3.1%	6.0%
Rank	36	59	54	81	119	70	25	28	38

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
John Theus	RT					13	48	2015 1st All-SEC
Brandon Kublanow	C	6'3, 293	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9204	13	26	2015 2nd All-SEC
Greg Pyke	RT	6'6, 325	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8818	10	23	2014 2nd All-SEC
Kolton Houston	LG					13	32
Isaiah Wynn	LT	6'2, 280	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9456	13	13
Hunter Long	C					2	2
Dyshon Sims	LG	6'4, 309	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9084	1	1
Tyler Catalina (Rhode Island)	LT	6'6, 314	Sr.	NR	NR	11	33
Kendall Baker	RT	6'6, 305	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8997	0	0
Lamont Gaillard	RG	6'2, 301	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.9358	0	0
Pat Allen	RT	6'4, 298	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9131
Ben Cleveland	OL	6'6, 341	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9528
Chris Barnes	OL	6'3, 301	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8696
Solomon Kindley	OL	6'4, 336	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8408

5. Nobody get hurt

Whoever wins the QB job will have a receiving corps that is both experienced and unproven. Including backup running back Sony Michel -- a nice and oft-used weapon out of the backfield -- five of last year's top six targets return, but they only averaged 7 yards per target with a 45 percent success rate. The athleticism is off the charts, but for now the corps has barely proven more than its freshman quarterback.

Perhaps the biggest concern is what the heck happens if someone gets hurt up front. In Brandon Kublanow and Greg Pyke, UGA boasts two linemen who have earned all-conference honors, and left tackle Isaiah Wynn  is solid and experienced. Rhode Island transfer Tyler Catalina adds depth, but if any of the top six players goes down, Georgia will have almost no choice but to throw a youngster into the fire.

Georgia's line was decent but frustrating last year. It helped to create opportunities, especially for Chubb (which isn't the hardest thing in the world), but even with Chubb there was no short-yardage push. And it seemed for many UGA fans that the hire of Bret Bielema's well-regarded line coach, Sam Pittman, was as important as Chaney.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.28	77	IsoPPP+	113.8	29
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	32.3%	3	Succ. Rt. +	114.6	23
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	32.5	20	Off. FP+	32.7	16
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	3.4	9	Redzone S&P+	104.2	48
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	19.6		ACTUAL	22.0	+2.4

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	7	19	23	29
RUSHING	42	19	15	30
PASSING	1	28	41	26
Standard Downs		17	21	16
Passing Downs		28	32	42

Q1 Rk	15	1st Down Rk	24
Q2 Rk	82	2nd Down Rk	13
Q3 Rk	5	3rd Down Rk	64
Q4 Rk	73

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	99.1	2.73	3.10	32.5%	57.5%	20.4%	86.9	2.6%	9.3%
Rank	66	41	53	8	22	58	86	116	27

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Sterling Bailey	DE					13	29.5	4.4%	2.5	1.0	0	2	0	0
Chris Mayes	NT					12	28.5	4.2%	1.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
James DeLoach	DT					13	16.5	2.4%	3.5	0.5	0	1	0	0
Trenton Thompson	DT	6'4, 309	So.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9991	12	16.5	2.4%	2.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
John Atkins	NT	6'4, 315	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8804	10	7.0	1.0%	1.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Josh Dawson	DE					13	4.5	0.7%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Chauncey Rivers	DE					4	3.5	0.5%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jonathan Ledbetter	DE	6'4, 269	So.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9670	7	3.0	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Michael Barnett	DE	6'4, 292	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9049	7	2.5	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
DaQuan Hawkins-Muckle	NT	6'4, 320	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8570	10	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Julian Rochester	DT	6'5, 316	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9648
Michail Carter	DL	6'3, 293	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9430
Tyler Clark	DL	6'4, 305	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9066

6. Nobody get hurt, part 2

The state of Georgia's post-Chubb offense was poor enough that it distracted us from one hell of a defense. It didn't appear coordinator Jeremy Pruitt got along particularly well with Richt, but after improving UGA's ratings from 36th to 17th in Def. S&P+, he pulled the Dawgs up to 11th. Georgia was efficient, particularly against the run, and basically the only weakness was an iffy early-downs pass rush.

Smart and new coordinator Mel Tucker inherit a lineup that is stocked in the back but potentially thin up front. Five of last year's top seven tacklers on the line are gone, and while the two returnees (Trenton Thompson, John Atkins) are enormous and talented, no other lineman recorded more than 3 tackles in 2015. It's possible that the rotation will feature only one upperclassman (Atkins, a junior), and while there are plenty of blue-chippers, experience is a good thing.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jake Ganus	MIKE					13	73.0	10.8%	5.0	1.0	2	0	0	0
Leonard Floyd	SAM					13	55.5	8.2%	10.5	4.5	0	3	0	1
Tim Kimbrough	WILL					12	47.5	7.0%	5.5	1.0	0	1	1	0
Jordan Jenkins	JACK					12	43.5	6.5%	10.5	4.0	0	0	2	0
Davin Bellamy	JACK	6'5, 240	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8937	10	23.5	3.5%	5.5	3.0	0	1	2	0
Reggie Carter (2014)	MIKE	6'1, 230	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8968	12	23.0	3.1%	0.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
Natrez Patrick	WILL	6'3, 238	So.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9566	11	17.0	2.5%	2.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Lorenzo Carter	SAM	6'6, 242	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9911	13	15.0	2.2%	0.0	0.0	0	1	2	0
Roquan Smith	MIKE	6'1, 225	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9764	12	14.5	2.2%	1.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
D'Andre Walker	SAM	6'3, 223	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9427	13	8.0	1.2%	0.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Ryne Rankin	WILL	6'1, 215	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8778	12	6.5	1.0%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Juwan Taylor	LB	6'1, 214	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8575	9	5.0	0.7%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Chuks Amaechi	JACK	6'3, 250	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8574	13	3.5	0.5%	0.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Johnny O'Neal	JACK	6'2, 238	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9023	5	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Keyon Brown	OLB	6'3, 257	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9333
Chauncey Manac	OLB	6'3, 243	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9439
Jaleel Laguins	OLB	6'2, 220	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9106
David Marshall	OLB	6'3, 273	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8712

7. All you need is a pass rush

If the line holds up, the rest of the defense should thrive. UGA must also replace three of last year's top four tacklers at linebacker, but that's a little bit misleading. Davin Bellamy, Natrez Patrick, Lorenzo Carter, and Roquan Smith all recorded at least 14.5 tackles in 2015, and Reggie Carter returns to the rotation after missing the fall with injury. Last year's freshmen and sophomores are this year's sophomores and juniors; this unit should be fine.

The pass rush could stand to improve, though. Georgia's pass rush was pretty good on passing downs, but there was very little invasiveness otherwise.

The Saban-Smart defense at Alabama didn't always boast a top-level pass rush; the Crimson Tide were so good at pursuit and gang tackling that they didn't need to take many chances. But that changed in 2015; Bama attacked a bit more and ended up ranked No. 2 in Adj. Sack Rate. Extra aggressiveness seems to have been part of the adjustment Saban and Smart made to the no-huddle attacks that had given them random fits.

We'll see if Smart thinks he has the pieces at linebacker to attack. As long as the line isn't a major liability, I bet he will.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Quincy Mauger	SS	6'0, 206	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8500	13	49.0	7.3%	3.5	0.5	0	5	0	0
Aaron Davis	CB	6'1, 189	Jr.	NR	NR	13	38.5	5.7%	3.5	1	1	3	0	0
Dominick Sanders	FS	6'0, 193	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8492	13	36.5	5.4%	5	1	6	6	0	0
Malkom Parrish	CB	5'10, 185	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9659	13	36.0	5.3%	6.5	1	2	2	0	0
Johnathan Abram	FS					10	18.0	2.7%	1.5	0	0	0	0	0
Rico McGraw	STAR	6'0, 194	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9333	9	17.5	2.6%	0.5	0	0	4	0	0
Reggie Wilkerson	STAR	5'11, 173	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9087	13	9.0	1.3%	2	0	1	0	0	0
Juwuan Briscoe	CB	5'11, 192	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8777	9	5.5	0.8%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Rashad Roundtree	SS	6'1, 204	So.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9393	12	5.5	0.8%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Devin Bowman	CB					5	2.5	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Tramel Terry	CB					3	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	1	0
Kirby Choates	DB	6'0, 194	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8307	11	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jarvis Wilson	FS	6'2, 199	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8514	11	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Shattle Fenteng	CB	6'2, 193	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.8864
Mecole Hardman	DB	5'11, 183	Fr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9902

8. The SEC has a lot of exciting safeties

Already in this year's SEC previews, I've written about Mizzou's Anthony Sherrils, Vanderbilt's Oren Burks, Auburn's Johnathan Ford, and Texas A&M's Armany Watts, Justin Evans, and Donovan Wilson. The SEC is loaded at safety, and Georgia's make that even more true.

Quincy Mauger and Dominick Sanders combined for 8.5 tackles for loss, six INTs, and 11 break-ups last season, and if nickel back Rico McGraw builds off of a promising freshman campaign, Georgia will have one of the best safety units in a great safety conference.

If you've got an improved pass rush and a great set of safeties, your cornerbacks have a reasonably easy job. And in theory, juniors Aaron Davis and Malkom Parrish should be up to this less-than-impossible task. They made a lot of plays near the line themselves, and sophomore Juwuan Briscoe should provide a little bit of depth.

[Update: Alabama defensive back Maurice Smith has transferred to Georgia for his senior season, and is eligible immediately.]

Plus, there's a wildcard in Mecole Hardman, a blue-chip freshman who has yet to occupy a defined position but could be used in the secondary, in the receiving corps, and as a kick-blocking weapon on special teams.

This defense's only concern is youth up front. The back eight could be dynamite.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Collin Barber			41	39.9	6	10	12	53.7%
Brice Ramsey	6'3, 210	Jr.	25	41.9	1	9	6	60.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Marshall Morgan			59	62.5	17	0	28.8%
Collin Barber			11	61.7	6	1	54.5%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Marshall Morgan			38-38	14-17	82.4%	4-8	50.0%
Patrick Beless			2-2	0-0	N/A	0-1	0.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Reggie Davis	KR	6'0, 170	Sr.	17	23.2	0
Isaiah McKenzie	KR	5'8, 175	Jr.	4	10.5	0
Isaiah McKenzie	PR	5'8, 175	Jr.	17	12.8	2
Reggie Davis	PR	6'0, 170	Sr.	8	13.8	1

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	104
Field Goal Efficiency	99
Punt Return Success Rate	24
Kick Return Success Rate	22
Punt Success Rate	115
Kickoff Success Rate	62

9. Can Brice kick field goals too?

The return game is a strength, especially on punts, where Isaiah McKenzie and Reggie Davis combined for three scores.

But the legs are a total mystery. Quarterback Brice Ramsey is uniquely strong in the punting department, but Marshall Morgan's departure leaves a void in both place-kicking and kickoffs. He struggled a bit in 2015, but he was at least a replacement-level guy at his positions. There's no guarantee UGA will be any better this fall.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
3-Sep	vs. North Carolina	27	4.9	61%
10-Sep	Nicholls State	NR	59.1	100%
17-Sep	at Missouri	47	7.5	67%
24-Sep	at Ole Miss	7	-6.3	36%
1-Oct	Tennessee	9	2.7	56%
8-Oct	at South Carolina	63	9.9	72%
15-Oct	Vanderbilt	69	17.9	85%
29-Oct	vs. Florida	19	1.7	54%
5-Nov	at Kentucky	83	15.1	81%
12-Nov	Auburn	24	7.1	66%
19-Nov	UL-Lafayette	106	30.2	96%
26-Nov	Georgia Tech	54	15.3	81%
Projected wins: 8.5

Five-Year F/+ Rk	38.8% (8)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	7 / 6
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	4 / -3.4
2015 TO Luck/Game	+2.8
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	76% (75%, 76%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	9.5 (0.5)

10. Plenty of late wins to be found

Look at Georgia's schedule from a couple of angles.

First, the opening stretch is ruthless. Four of the Dawgs' first five games are projected within one possession, and while UGA is projected to win three of those four, any early struggle at quarterback or in the trenches could lead to a 3-2 or 2-3 start.

After that, Georgia has an exceedingly manageable slate. The Dawgs are given at least a 66 percent chance of winning in six of their last seven games and are slightly favored against Florida as well.

Tennessee is the clear betting favorite to win the SEC East, but if Georgia knocks off the Vols in Athens on October 1, the Dawgs could steal Butch Jones' thunder. And if Richt were still the head coach, I think he would be under pressure to do just that.