If Tennessee learns how to close big games in 2016, the hype will all pay off. That's an 'if.'

Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year's team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year's roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

1. Are you ready?

Tenth with a first-place vote in the Coaches Poll. Twelfth at CBS. Tenth at SI.

Tennessee hasn't finished a season in the top 10 since 2001, when Phil Fulmer's Vols came within one game of the BCS title game.

In 2002, they began fifth and finished 8-5. In 2005, they began third and finished 5-6. And when Fulmer was pushed out following 2008, the Vols entered almost a decade in the wilderness. They finished unranked for seven straight years, the longest stretch since the beginning of the Johnny Majors era in the late-1970s.

We always race to proclaim a storied program "BACK," but fourth-year UT head coach Butch Jones has built, brick by brick, on it. The Vols have improved from 5-7 in 2013 to 7-6 to 9-4 to 2015.

And now, for the second straight year, a team that improved by two wins returns a vast majority of its key contributors. Tennessee is experienced, talented, and mean. The hype has shifted into fourth gear.

Typical media, right? We're all jumping the gun, racing to recapture history, right? Well ... numbers don't care about how good you were in the late-1990s, and numbers like the Vols quite a bit.

Based on recent performance, returning production, and recruiting, S&P+ projects the Vols ninth, even higher than the humans. They are 10th per FEI and fifth per FPI. Jones has built through recruiting and has engineered strong year-to-year improvement. That's going to reflect well in the spreadsheets.

So the coaches and the nerds both view UT as a top-10 team. What could go wrong?

Here are some questions the Vols still have to answer:

• The offense takes its foot off the gas at the earliest opportunity. Veteran coordinator Mike DeBord proved solid at game plans and early success. The Vols averaged 6.3 yards per play in the first quarter, with a 65 percent completion rate and 5.5 yards per rush. After the first quarter: 5.3 yards per play, a 57 percent completion rate, 4.4 yards per carry. Predictability beset the play-calling, which put a lot of pressure on the defense.
• The defense could stand to be more disruptive. The Vol defense was pretty strong, but it also peaked early, allowing 3.9 yards per carry and a 83.4 passer rating in the first quarter, then 4.3 and 117.2 thereafter. To the extent that the D had an issue, it didn't cause enough havoc. While they were excellent once opponents were leveraged into passing downs, forcing passing downs against good offenses was an issue.
• QB + place-kicker + coach. SB Nation's Bud Elliott and I frequently discuss his theory that the combination of quarterbacking, place-kicking, and coaching can affect your close-game record, just as a strong bullpen can in baseball. Predictable play-calling, conservative coaching, iffy kicking, and overrated quarterback play from Joshua Dobbs helped create some close-game issues.

The Vols led Oklahoma 17-0 in the first quarter and lost. They led Florida 27-14 in the fourth quarter and lost. They led Arkansas 14-0 in the first quarter and lost. They led Alabama 14-13 in the fourth quarter and lost. That could have been randomness and bad luck ... and it could have been part of the formula.

Tennessee was clearly a strong team, but experience and another good recruiting class won't automatically fix any of the issues. Until we see the Vols close games against good teams, we don't know that it will happen enough.

In three years under Jones, they are 3-0 in one-possession games against teams with losing records and 3-9 in those games against teams with winning records. They nearly blew another lead against lowly South Carolina last year.

The Tennessee hype is justifiable. But the last step the Vols have to take is a tricky one. If they can avoid playing not to lose, then the hype might not be loud enough.

This is Bill C's daily preview series, working its way through every 2016 team. Catch up on the SEC so far!

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 9-4 | Adj. Record: 11-2 | Final F/+ Rk: 18 | Final S&P+ Rk: 22
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
5-Sep	vs. Bowling Green	25	59-30	W	94%	99%	+13.8	+7.5
12-Sep	Oklahoma	4	24-31	L	49%	17%	-6.9	-6.0
19-Sep	Western Carolina	N/A	55-10	W	93%	100%	+5.8
26-Sep	at Florida	27	27-28	L	50%	36%	-1.1	+0.5
3-Oct	Arkansas	11	20-24	L	26%	3%	-7.7	-10.5
10-Oct	Georgia	30	38-31	W	75%	72%	+4.0	+10.0
24-Oct	at Alabama	1	14-19	L	51%	15%	+12.9	+10.5
31-Oct	at Kentucky	91	52-21	W	92%	100%	+22.0	+22.0
7-Nov	South Carolina	88	27-24	W	63%	80%	-15.2	-14.0
14-Nov	North Texas	126	24-0	W	88%	100%	-14.4	-17.0
21-Nov	at Missouri	75	19-8	W	73%	93%	+0.8	+2.5
28-Nov	Vanderbilt	83	53-28	W	65%	83%	+7.1	+7.5
1-Jan	vs. Northwestern	52	45-6	W	96%	100%	+34.3	+31.0

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	32.8	43	20.2	17
Points Per Game	35.2	29	20.0	16

2. Closing the deal

In terms of per-play averages, the Tennessee offense was nearly as effective against very good teams as it was against the others.

• Tennessee vs. Top 30:
  Record: 2-4 | Average percentile performance: 58% (~top 55) | Yards per play: Opp 5.8, UT 5.4 (-0.4)
• Tennessee vs. everybody else:
  Record: 7-0 | Average percentile performance: 81% (~top 25) | Yards per play: UT 5.7, Opp 4.6 (+1.1)

Watching was a particularly frustrating experience. The Vols proved what they could do with dynamic early play, especially on offense, and then they called it a day.

The Oklahoma game was a master class in playing not to lose. The Vols kicked a field goal from the OU 1 five minutes into the game and, once up 17-3, fell into a "run, run, third-and-long pass" rhythm and scored zero points over the final 42 minutes of regulation. And once this failed, it seemed to get into their heads. The Florida and Arkansas games played out in a similar manner.

The defense was mostly solid against good teams but didn't dominate. And the offense forced it to dominate.

In a lot of ways, it felt the coaching staff failed its players in key moments. Will that change?

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.23	81	IsoPPP+	112.7	32
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	42.6%	57	Succ. Rt. +	113.6	21
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	25.0	2	Def. FP+	24.7	4
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.4	69	Redzone S&P+	108.5	41
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	18.8		ACTUAL	12	-6.8

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	52	26	21	32
RUSHING	20	17	24	16
PASSING	92	34	25	39
Standard Downs		36	28	43
Passing Downs		16	23	17

Q1 Rk	3	1st Down Rk	27
Q2 Rk	49	2nd Down Rk	45
Q3 Rk	44	3rd Down Rk	38
Q4 Rk	56

3. A one-quarter offense

The potential of the offense is obvious.

Jalen Hurd is basically a defensive end playing running back, and when given a chance to run downhill, he can do some nasty things. Fellow back Alvin Kamara is frequently used in dump-off situations on the perimeter, enough to pull off the rate "No. 2 rusher, No. 3 receiver" combination. Josh Malone and Josh Smith are decent bailout options and helped Tennessee rank 16th in Passing Downs S&P+.

Built around these pillars, the Vols had one of the best first-quarter offenses in the country.

You need a Plan B, though. Hurd averaged 5.4 yards per carry in the first quarter and 4.3 thereafter. Dobbs' passer rating was over 135 in the first and third quarters and under 121 in the second and fourth. Kamara caught 22 passes in the first and third quarters and 11 in the second and fourth. Leading receiver Von Pearson caught 27 passes in the first half and 11 in the second.

When the Vols didn't have a game put away yet, they had no idea how to move the ball. With this mix of parts, that's baffling.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Joshua Dobbs	6'3, 210	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9276	205	344	2291	15	5	59.6%	18	5.0%	5.9
Quinten Dormady	6'4, 216	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9029	13	22	209	1	0	59.1%	3	12.0%	7.7
Sheriron Jones	6'2, 208	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9039
Jarrett Guarantano	6'4, 205	Fr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9612

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Jalen Hurd	RB	6'4, 240	Jr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9793	279	1283	12	4.6	4.6	35.5%	5	1
Joshua Dobbs	QB	6'3, 210	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9276	128	830	11	6.5	6.4	45.3%	10	4
Alvin Kamara	RB	5'10, 215	Jr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9760	107	698	7	6.5	5.1	53.3%	2	1
John Kelly	RB	5'9, 212	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8665	40	165	1	4.1	3.7	35.0%	0	0
Joe Young	RB					19	64	1	3.4	1.7	36.8%	0	0
Quinten Dormady	QB	6'4, 216	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9029	7	22	0	3.1	1.0	14.3%	0	0
Jauan Jennings	WR	6'3, 205	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9257	7	15	0	2.1	5.1	14.3%	0	0
Von Pearson	WR					4	-5	0	-1.3	0.0	0.0%	0	0
Carlin Fils-Aime	RB	5'11, 175	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9005

4. Switch it up

There's a visceral thrill to watching Hurd run with a football. He is enormous and mean, and he's often pretty successful, too.

But on a per-touch basis, Hurd was drastically less effective than his backup.

Kamara gained five yards or more on 53 percent of his carries in 2015. Hurd: 36 percent. And in the open field, Kamara was more explosive, averaging 5.1 highlight yards per opportunity to Hurd's 4.6. The two were nearly identical in receiving quality, but Kamara was targeted 15 more times.

Variety could benefit Tennessee. When Kamara's in, he's likely fraying wide. When Hurd's in, he's probably taking a handoff. Switching things up wouldn't be a bad idea, especially if it involves Kamara taking a few more of Hurd's carries.

Getting the ball downfield on standard downs wouldn't hurt, either. Dobbs wasn't given many chances to take advantage of play-action; not only did Tennessee run two-thirds of the time on standard downs (and even more when ahead), but when Dobbs did throw, the passes weren't really going anywhere.

His passer rating on first down was just 105.1, and he averaged just 8.4 yards per completion. On third downs, he averaged 12.5 yards per completion with barely a lower completion rate. Dobbs can potentially do more than he's been asked, but variety would be lovely.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Von Pearson	WR					55	38	409	69.1%	15.4%	7.4	54.5%	45.5%	1.51
Josh Malone	WR	6'3, 200	Jr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9818	52	31	405	59.6%	14.6%	7.8	50.0%	48.1%	1.54
Alvin Kamara	RB	5'10, 215	Jr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9760	45	34	291	75.6%	12.6%	6.5	71.1%	53.3%	1.20
Josh Smith	WR	6'1, 213	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8210	44	23	307	52.3%	12.4%	7.0	45.5%	43.2%	1.46
Jason Croom (2014)	TE	6'5, 246	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9122	35	21	305	60.0%	8.2%	8.7	51.0%	N/A	N/A
Ethan Wolf	TE	6'6, 245	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8890	32	23	301	71.9%	9.0%	9.4	46.9%	56.2%	1.68
Jalen Hurd	RB	6'4, 240	Jr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9793	30	22	190	73.3%	8.4%	6.3	50.0%	53.3%	1.14
Jauan Jennings	WR	6'3, 205	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9257	22	14	149	63.6%	6.2%	6.8	40.9%	45.5%	1.38
Alex Ellis	TE					19	8	117	42.1%	5.3%	6.2	36.8%	26.3%	2.25
Preston Williams	WR	6'4, 209	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9763	16	7	158	43.8%	4.5%	9.9	68.8%	43.8%	2.03
Marquez North	WR					15	6	58	40.0%	4.2%	3.9	53.3%	33.3%	1.15
Johnathon Johnson	WR					14	10	116	71.4%	3.9%	8.3	50.0%	64.3%	1.22
Pig Howard	WR					3	1	8	33.3%	0.8%	2.7	66.7%	33.3%	0.89
John Kelly	RB	5'9, 212	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8665	2	0	0	0.0%	0.6%	0.0	50.0%	0.0%	0.00
Jeff George	WR	6'6, 195	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.8798
Tyler Byrd	WR	6'0, 195	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9552
Marquez Callaway	WR	6'2, 190	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9490
Brandon Johnson	WR	6'2, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8691

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	111.6	3.06	3.05	40.1%	72.7%	18.9%	105.9	5.4%	6.2%
Rank	19	38	83	50	29	55	51	75	43

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Kyler Kerbyson	LT					13	26	2015 2nd All-SEC
Dylan Wiesman	RG	6'4, 304	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8352	13	15	2015 2nd All-SEC
Jashon Robertson	LG	6'3, 305	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8625	10	23
Coleman Thomas	C	6'5, 301	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8584	13	18
Mack Crowder	LG					3	15
Chance Hall	RT	6'4, 318	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8585	7	7
Brett Kendrick	RT	6'6, 318	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8296	5	7
Jack Jones	RG	6'4, 307	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9404	1	1
Charles Mosley	OL	6'4, 340	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8948	0	0
Drew Richmond	OL	6'5, 301	RSFr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9732
Venzell Boulware	OL	6'3, 306	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8837
Ryan Johnson	OL	6'6, 275	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9015
Marcus Tatum	OL	6'6, 265	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8751
Nathan Niehaus	OL	6'6, 295	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8405

5. The line should be strong

Despite a big running back, the Vols stunk in short-yardage and allowed defenders into the backfield, run or pass. They ranked 96th in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line), and only two teams were worse at preventing passing downs sacks: UCLA and Navy. Dobbs' mobility helped tamp the sack rates down, but he was still sacked nine times by Missouri (six) and Vanderbilt (three).

The line's improvement could determine everything from whether Dobbs gets hurt to if Tennessee is able to move the ball against a defense like Alabama's, Georgia's, or Florida's. The experience is far better -- the Vols entered 2014 with six career starts and enter 2015 with 64 -- and now we just have to find out about development.

In last year's preview, I said the offensive line would determine Tennessee's fate. Though it still let a few too many defenders into the backfield, it improved dramatically: 19th in Adj. Line Yards, 29th in power success rate, 43rd in passing downs sack rate. Obviously the skill personnel had a role, but there was clear progress.

Interior play should be as good or better this year;.Tennessee returns starting guards Dylan Wiesman and Jashon Robertson and center Coleman Thomas. Tackle is a bit in flux with the loss of all-conference Kyler Kerbyson but still boasts a couple of players with starting experience and a former blue-chipper in redshirt freshman Drew Richmond.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.26	70	IsoPPP+	109.5	39
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	36.2%	19	Succ. Rt. +	111.3	31
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	33.2	9	Off. FP+	33.2	12
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.1	41	Redzone S&P+	102.0	65
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	21.0		ACTUAL	19.0	-2.0

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	36	30	31	39
RUSHING	45	32	30	35
PASSING	47	41	28	46
Standard Downs		48	35	53
Passing Downs		14	17	14

Q1 Rk	10	1st Down Rk	26
Q2 Rk	42	2nd Down Rk	46
Q3 Rk	26	3rd Down Rk	54
Q4 Rk	85

6. A Bob Shoop defense

Tennessee ranked 12th in Def. S&P+ in 2014 and 17th in 2015. Granted, the Vols regressed last year, especially in terms of making stops in scoring opportunities. But it was still interesting to see Jones making a move on defense and not offense; he dumped coordinator John Jancek to pluck Bob Shoop away from Penn State.

This felt more like an opportunity to make an upgrade rather than a move to shore up a weakness. Shoop mostly thrived for James Franklin at both Vanderbilt and Penn State, and at both stops he generated major progress in his first year -- Vandy went from 62nd to sixth in 2011, and PSU went from 39th to fourth in 2014. You can only improve so much from 17th, but you can still improve.

Shoop's defense was a little disappointing in 2015, if only because of the standard set in 2014. The Nittany Lions still ranked 15th in Def. S&P+, powered by maybe the best pass rush in the country, but they struggled against the run and, like Tennessee, sometimes had trouble forcing passing downs and making stops near the goal line.

Shoop's first Tennessee D will have all the experience he could want, and if he's able to find a pass-rushing complement for junior Derek Barnett -- Barnett had 10 sacks, but only one other player had more than 3.5 -- and figure out how to prevent big pass plays (typically a strength of his defenses), then that could push the Vols toward the Def. S&P+ top 10.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	101.2	2.83	3.42	36.0%	55.3%	19.6%	100.5	6.2%	8.1%
Rank	54	57	86	39	16	70	64	26	51

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Derek Barnett	DE	6'3, 265	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9164	13	56.5	8.4%	12.5	10.0	0	1	1	0
Corey Vereen	DE	6'2, 249	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8678	13	33.0	4.9%	9.5	3.5	0	1	0	0
Owen Williams	DT					13	27.5	4.1%	6.5	1.0	0	1	0	0
LaTroy Lewis	DE	6'4, 256	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8798	13	22.5	3.4%	2.0	1.0	0	1	1	0
Kahlil McKenzie	DT	6'3, 325	So.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9968	13	18.0	2.7%	1.0	1.0	0	1	1	0
Kendal Vickers	DT	6'3, 295	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7997	13	14.5	2.2%	1.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Danny O'Brien	DT	6'2, 301	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9181	11	13.0	1.9%	3.0	2.0	0	1	0	0
Chris Weatherd	DE					13	9.0	1.3%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Shy Tuttle	DT	6'2, 311	So.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9738	6	6.5	1.0%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kyle Phillips	DE	6'4, 259	So.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9831	7	6.0	0.9%	1.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Dimarya Mixon	DE	6'4, 260	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8618	13	6.0	0.9%	1.0	0.0	0	2	0	0
Austin Smith	DE	6'3, 236	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8631	13	3.0	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Quay Picou	DT	6'1, 277	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8706
Andrew Butcher	DE	6'2, 275	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9018
Darrell Taylor	DE	6'4, 240	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9004
Alexis Johnson	DT	6'4, 297	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8900
Jonathan Kongbo	DL	6'6, 270	So.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9584

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jalen Reeves-Maybin	WLB	6'0, 230	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9052	13	85.5	12.8%	14.0	6.0	0	4	2	0
Darrin Kirkland Jr.	MLB	6'1, 230	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9271	13	54.5	8.1%	6.5	3.0	1	1	0	0
Cortez McDowell	WLB	6'0, 235	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9235	13	10.0	1.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kenny Bynum	SLB	6'1, 235	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8425	13	8.5	1.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Colton Jumper	MLB	6'2, 224	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	NR	13	8.0	1.2%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Curt Maggitt	SLB					2	5.5	0.8%	3.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Gavin Bryant	LB	6'0, 238	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8976	10	4.5	0.7%	0.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Quart'e Sapp	WLB	6'2, 220	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9077	4	3.0	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Elliott Berry	LB	5'11, 222	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8528
Dillon Bates	WLB	6'3, 220	So.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9536
Daniel Bituli	LB	6'3, 235	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9147
Ja'Quain Blakely	LB	6'2, 230	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8649

7. A little more aggression could go a long way

Tennessee's secondary ranked a respectable 31st in DB Havoc Rate last year, thanks mostly to the work of two aggressive corners, Cameron Sutton and Emmanuel Moseley. (They also gave up a few big gainers as well.) The front seven, however, was lacking in disruptiveness.

The Vols ranked just 51st in passing downs sack rate and 70th in stuff rate; Barnett was kind of a one-note end (10 sacks, but only 2.5 non-sack tackles for loss), while Corey Vereen was stronger against the run (6 non-sack TFLs) but didn't offer much in the pass rush (3.5 sacks).

If Shoop can unearth another top-notch play-maker to work with Barnett and linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin, that could be too much for even good offenses to handle. He's got experience atop the depth chart and plenty of former star recruits, looking for a niche -- tackles Kahlil McKenzie and Shy Tuttle (who is coming off of a serious leg injury), ends Kyle Phillips and Andrew Butcher, five-star JUCO lineman Jonathan Kongbo, linebackers Darrin Kirkland Jr. and Quart'e Sapp.

Just a little bit more successful aggression would give Tennessee a chance to win tight games against good teams, even if the offense is ridiculously predictable.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Brian Randolph	FS					13	61.0	9.1%	1	0	2	3	1	0
Todd Kelly Jr.	SS	5'11, 208	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9686	13	38.5	5.8%	0	0	3	2	0	0
Cameron Sutton	CB	5'11, 186	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8625	13	27.5	4.1%	3	0	1	6	2	0
LaDarrell McNeil	SS					11	26.5	4.0%	0	0	2	2	0	0
Emmanuel Moseley	CB	5'11, 180	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8464	13	24.5	3.7%	2	0	1	10	0	0
Malik Foreman	NB	5'10, 190	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8290	13	23.5	3.5%	4	0	1	9	1	0
Justin Martin	CB	6'1, 183	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9069	13	17.0	2.5%	0	0	0	5	0	0
Evan Berry	FS	5'11, 207	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8934	13	16.5	2.5%	0	0	1	0	0	0
Micah Abernathy	S	6'0, 195	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.9082	12	8.0	1.2%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Max Arnold	DB					9	5.5	0.8%	0	0	0	0	1	0
Stephen Griffin	S	6'2, 205	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8565	8	5.0	0.7%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Devin Williams	DB	5'8, 184	Sr.	NR	NR	2	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Rashaan Gaulden	S	6'1, 185	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8773
D.J. Henderson	DB	6'1, 180	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8773
Nigel Warrior	DB	6'0, 186	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9690
Marquill Osborne	DB	5'11, 188	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9228

8. Risk vs. reward

Sutton and Moseley made for a lovely pair of aggressive corners, combining for five tackles for loss and 18 passes defensed. Throw in the work of safety Todd Kelly Jr, nickel Malik Foreman, and No. 3 corner Justin Martin, and you've got a set of play-makers.

The one problem: The Vols could stand to prevent a few more plays. They allowed 118 passes of 10-plus yards (84th in FBS) and allowed 12.4 yards per completion, a little bit higher an average than you would like to see. Meanwhile, one of the only vacancies in the starting lineup comes at free safety, where Brian Randolph has departed, along with strong safety LaDarrell McNeil. Kelly and Foreman are back, and players like Evan Berry and Micah Abernathy could thrive given a chance, but it's a question mark. As strong as this defense was on passing downs, there were some glitches. And now there's less safety experience.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Trevor Daniel	6'1, 248	Jr.	60	45.7	9	15	22	61.7%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Aaron Medley	6'2, 194	Jr.	89	61.9	37	5	41.6%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Aaron Medley	6'2, 194	Jr.	55-55	16-19	84.2%	5-12	41.7%
George Bullock			1-1	0-0	N/A	0-0	N/A

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Evan Berry	KR	5'11, 207	Jr.	21	38.3	3
Micah Abernathy	KR	6'0, 195	So.	4	17.3	0
Cameron Sutton	PR	5'11, 186	Sr.	25	18.7	2
Alvin Kamara	PR	5'10, 215	Jr.	8	12.5	1

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	45
Field Goal Efficiency	91
Punt Return Success Rate	57
Kick Return Success Rate	1
Punt Success Rate	45
Kickoff Success Rate	36

9. Just kick the ball out of bounds. Even on kickoffs.

Place-kicking makes up the biggest portion of your Special Teams S&P+ rating, as it is the special teams category most directly correlated with wins and losses.

Tennessee's Aaron Medley could have been worse -- he didn't miss a PAT and made 84 percent of his shorter field goals -- but he was asked to attempt a ton of longer kicks and didn't do very well with them. Field Goal Efficiency is determined based on the expected success of the kicks you are taking, and UT was below average in this regard.

I mention this if only to explain why Tennessee could rank only 45th in Special Teams S&P+ despite the scariest set of return men in the country.

Granted, punt returns were a bit all-or-nothing, but when the "all" includes three scores and 13 returns of 20-plus yards, you can live with that. Opponents would be well served to just kick the ball out of bounds on punts ... and maybe on kickoffs, too. Evan Berry will return just about anything, and he averaged a terrifying 38 yards per return with three scores. Tennessee basically scored a return touchdown in every other game last year. That's absurd. And everybody associated with the return game is back.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
1-Sep	Appalachian State	59	16.8	83%
10-Sep	vs. Virginia Tech	32	7.7	67%
17-Sep	Ohio	95	25.6	93%
24-Sep	Florida	19	6.0	63%
1-Oct	at Georgia	15	-2.7	44%
8-Oct	at Texas A&M	25	1.0	52%
15-Oct	Alabama	1	-6.4	36%
29-Oct	at South Carolina	63	10.7	73%
5-Nov	Tennessee Tech	NR	50.2	100%
12-Nov	Kentucky	83	22.9	91%
19-Nov	Missouri	47	15.3	81%
26-Nov	at Vanderbilt	69	11.7	75%
Projected wins: 8.6

Five-Year F/+ Rk	15.8% (35)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	9 / 15
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	7 / 2.2
2015 TO Luck/Game	+1.8
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	81% (84%, 78%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	9.0 (0.0)

10. All about the trip to Athens

Last year's schedule was loaded at the top, and Tennessee was nearly up for the challenge. The Vols faced six top-30 teams in their first seven games, then plowed through a weak home stretch.

This year there could be more of a breaking-in period.

UT does face two dangerous teams out of the gates; Appalachian State should be one of the Sun Belt's best, and Virginia Tech will still mostly be an unknown when the two teams kick off at Bristol Speedway in Week 2. Still, Virginia Tech isn't Oklahoma, and there are only four projected top-30 teams on the schedule.

Close the deal against two of them, and you're in position to win 10 games for the first time since 2007. Do it against three, and you're maybe at 11 for the first time since 2001.

Win totals aside, the primary goal for UT is reaching its first SEC title game in nine years. Even if they clear the Florida hurdle (the Vols haven't beaten the Gators since 2004), and I assume they will, they face a massive Athens battle against a Georgia that is basically a quarterback and a couple of linemen away from playing at a top-10 level itself. Lose that, and the Vols might have to beat Alabama to keep East hopes alive.