The Florida Gators might have a great offense in 2017. Can 2016's just be competent?

Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year's team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year's roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

1. A black hole of quarterbacking

Head coach Jim McElwain took on a job that simultaneously had a low bar and a really high one.

The Gators are one of the most successful programs of the last 20 years, having three national titles with nine AP top-10 finishes. Among the four hires before McElwain were UF's two best coaches ever.

At the same time, the last hire didn't do particularly well. Will Muschamp recruited well and consistently fielded a great defense, but offense was an afterthought. Since Tim Tebow left after 2009, the Gators have only once ranked better than 57th in Off. S&P+; considering the recruiting rankings, that is unfathomable.

Still, the Gators were becoming interesting last year. During a 6-0 start, they were really bad at running the football, but redshirt freshman quarterback Will Grier was rounding into form. He was incredible against Ole Miss (24-for-29, 271 yards, four touchdowns) and good enough against Missouri early and Tennessee late to assure six wins.

Unfortunately, he will suffer that loss (or not!) in a West Virginia uniform. He was suspended for using performance-enhancing drugs following the Missouri win, then elected to transfer. Embattled backup Treon Harris took over and did alright for a little while -- long enough to secure the SEC East title, anyway -- but the offense again collapsed down the stretch, scoring more than 20 points just once in the final six games and scoring a total of 24 in the last three.

Harris recently announced he was transferring, too. So after getting an exciting glimpse of Grier, Florida will start either Oregon State's 2014 backup, a part-time Purdue starter, or a true freshman. It will probably be the former -- sophomore and two-time transferee Luke Del Rio -- but I listed four because, well, Florida tends to start more than one QB per season. Due to injury, transfer and general ineffectiveness, the Gators have been drastically unstable under center.

The SEC East has dealt with an inferiority issue for a while. It has lost seven straight conference title games and hasn't had a collective winning record in the conference since 2008. Including the SEC Championship, it has gone 6-24 against West teams over the least two years.

The blame for this obviously goes beyond Florida; the Gators went 8-0 in the SEC's regular season in 2009, then 7-1 in 2012. Fellow 1990s power Tennessee hasn't managed a top-10 finish since 2001. Georgia has been up-and-down, South Carolina couldn't maintain its 2011-13 form, and Missouri is all over the place.

Still, East inferiority correlates pretty well with Florida falling from elite status. The East boasted a constant top-5 program, a stabilizing force to balance Georgia's and Tennessee's ups and downs. Now it does not.

The best-case scenario is that Del Rio not only secures the job but holds onto it. He might struggle at times, but if he can simply prove he's worthy of the job, Florida's future begins to look pretty exciting. The Gator offense is almost senior-free, with sophomores and a JUCO transfer leading the way at running back, sophomores and juniors at receiver, and sophomores and juniors on the line.

However the offense performs in 2016, it could improve in 2017 and again in 2018. And the defense doesn't really look like it plans on dropping off anytime soon. But we've seen this potential trajectory before, and it only lasted until the next quarterback implosion.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 10-4 | Adj. Record: 10-4 | Final F/+ Rk: 27 | Final S&P+ Rk: 18
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
5-Sep	New Mexico State	118	61-13	W	96%	100%	+27.0	+11.0
12-Sep	East Carolina	73	31-24	W	81%	85%	-4.9	-13.5
19-Sep	at Kentucky	91	14-9	W	86%	96%	+0.2	+2.0
26-Sep	Tennessee	18	28-27	W	79%	64%	+1.1	-0.5
3-Oct	Ole Miss	5	38-10	W	99%	100%	+36.5	+35.5
10-Oct	at Missouri	75	21-3	W	84%	95%	-5.6	+12.0
17-Oct	at LSU	10	28-35	L	40%	6%	-7.7	+2.5
31-Oct	vs. Georgia	30	27-3	W	98%	100%	+20.6	+21.0
7-Nov	Vanderbilt	83	9-7	W	83%	93%	-19.1	-19.0
14-Nov	at South Carolina	88	24-14	W	82%	92%	-5.7	+2.5
21-Nov	Florida Atlantic	96	20-14	W	84%	93%	-18.2	-25.0
28-Nov	Florida State	12	2-27	L	21%	0%	-26.2	-23.0
5-Dec	vs. Alabama	1	15-29	L	27%	0%	-1.7	+3.5
1-Jan	vs. Michigan	8	7-41	L	27%	0%	-27.8	-29.5

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	30.1	57	15.7	6
Points Per Game	23.2	100	18.3	11

2. Strain, then collapse

I don't want to overstate Grier's early-season performance. He was incredible against Ole Miss and NMSU, but in four other games he managed a much more mediocre 120.7 passer rating. And even with those strong performances, UF's per-play yardage was average at best.

Still, the offense was promising enough to get out of the defense's way. The potential was clear. And then it wasn't.

• First 6 games:
  Record: 6-0 | Average percentile performance: 88% (~top 15) | Performance vs. S&P+ projection: +9.1 PPG | Yards per play: UF 5.6, Opp 4.4 (+1.2)
• Next 4 games:
  Record: 3-1 | Average percentile performance: 76% (~top 30) | Performance vs. S&P+ projection: -3.0 PPG | Yards per play: UF 5.3, Opp 4.5 (+0.8)
• Last 4 games:
  Record: 1-3 | Average percentile performance: 40% (~top 75) | Performance vs. S&P+ projection: -18.5 PPG | Yards per play: Opp 5.1, UF 4.1 (-1.0)

Harris did his best. In his first two games succeeding Grier, Florida scored 55 points, and he threw for 426 yards with no interceptions. But there was no efficiency in the passing game (his completion rate was 15 points lower than Grier's), and that did too much damage even as Harris' mobile presence aided the run game.

The wheels were threatening to come off. Florida was a bit unlucky to beat Vanderbilt, South Carolina, and FAU by only a combined 18 points -- statistically, the Gators were far superior in these contests -- but the offense was still clearly laboring. Averaging 5.3 yards per play against South Carolina is bad; averaging 4.1 against FAU is horrific.

A banged-up defense was still strong enough to shut opponents down, but it was foreboding. And it wasn't exactly a surprise that when the competition picked back up, the Gators had no chance.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.22	88	IsoPPP+	104.7	51
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	38.6%	100	Succ. Rt. +	107.5	36
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	26.2	4	Def. FP+	24.7	5
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	3.8	114	Redzone S&P+	102.9	62
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	20.2		ACTUAL	17	-3.2

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	112	47	36	51
RUSHING	113	69	47	78
PASSING	87	41	38	41
Standard Downs		47	22	66
Passing Downs		49	81	42

Q1 Rk	20	1st Down Rk	50
Q2 Rk	32	2nd Down Rk	48
Q3 Rk	100	3rd Down Rk	86
Q4 Rk	83

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Treon Harris					119	235	1676	9	6	50.6%	31	11.7%	5.5
Will Grier					106	161	1204	10	3	65.8%	11	6.4%	6.7
Austin Appleby (Purdue)	6'4, 240	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8604	119	207	1260	8	8	57.5%	11	5.0%	5.5
Luke Del Rio (Oregon State)	6'1, 211	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8560	8	18	141	0	0	44.4%	0	0.0%	7.8
Feleipe Franks	6'6, 219	Fr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9721
Kyle Trask	6'4, 238	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7984

3. No pressure, Del Rio ... just the weight of the program on your shoulders

Del Rio is certainly doing his best to allay concerns. He completed 10 of 11 passes for 176 yards in the spring game, and while that happened against the second-string defense, it was awfully impressive.

Del Rio is the son of Oakland Raiders head coach and former All-American linebacker Jack Del Rio; he seems to have all of the lives-in-the-film-room qualities we expect from the stereotypical son of a coach. If he can pick up where Grier left off, providing any sort of pass efficiency to deflect attention from the run game, then Doug Nussmeier's 2016 offense might have a chance of breaking the Off. S&P+ top 50.

Or at least, if QB is steady, Florida can move on to its next problem: youth. No returning running back has more than 181 career rushing yards, and the passing game must replace four of last year's top seven targets. Potentially the three most effective receiving options return, but inexperience is a massive concern.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Kelvin Taylor	RB					259	1035	13	4.0	4.5	29.3%	0	0
Treon Harris	QB					65	456	0	7.0	5.5	50.8%	4	3
Jordan Cronkrite	RB	5'11, 204	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9020	44	157	3	3.6	2.8	34.1%	1	0
Jordan Scarlett	RB	5'10, 213	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9442	34	181	1	5.3	7.5	35.3%	0	0
Will Grier	QB					25	175	2	7.0	6.0	52.0%	3	1
Brandon Powell	WR	5'9, 184	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8784	14	31	0	2.2	1.4	14.3%	2	0
Case Harrison	RB	6'0, 188	Jr.	NR	NR	5	17	0	3.4	1.8	40.0%	0	0
Mark Herndon	RB	5'9, 209	Sr.	NR	NR	4	12	0	3.0	4.9	25.0%	1	1
Mark Thompson	RB	6'2, 237	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9315
Lamical Perine	RB	5'11, 221	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8699

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Demarcus Robinson	WR					76	48	522	63.2%	20.1%	6.9	61.8%	50.0%	1.23
Antonio Callaway	WR	5'11, 197	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8869	74	35	678	47.3%	19.6%	9.2	58.1%	37.8%	2.20
Jake McGee	TE					66	41	381	62.1%	17.5%	5.8	51.5%	47.0%	1.13
Brandon Powell	SLOT	5'9, 184	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8784	45	29	390	64.4%	11.9%	8.7	53.3%	48.9%	1.70
DeAndre Goolsby	TE	6'4, 244	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8656	24	17	277	70.8%	6.3%	11.5	87.5%	58.3%	1.85
Kelvin Taylor	RB					24	17	150	70.8%	6.3%	6.3	50.0%	33.3%	1.69
Valdez Showers	WR					13	6	64	46.2%	3.4%	4.9	38.5%	30.8%	1.33
Jordan Cronkrite	RB	5'11, 204	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9020	9	6	89	66.7%	2.4%	9.9	88.9%	55.6%	1.66
C'yontai Lewis	TE	6'4, 231	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8458	9	4	75	44.4%	2.4%	8.3	66.7%	33.3%	2.67
Ahmad Fulwood	WR	6'4, 208	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9494	9	6	61	66.7%	2.4%	6.8	66.7%	44.4%	1.55
Chris Thompson	WR	6'0, 170	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8544	8	5	48	62.5%	2.1%	6.0	75.0%	37.5%	1.70
C.J. Worton	WR	6'0, 196	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8756	7	4	69	57.1%	1.9%	9.9	71.4%	57.1%	1.85
Kalif Jackson	WR	6'4, 217	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8514
Dre Massey	SLOT	5'9, 180	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8834
Tyrie Cleveland	WR	6'2, 196	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9801
Freddie Swain	SLOT	6'0, 186	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9389
Josh Hammond	WR	6'1, 186	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9274
Rick Wells	WR	6'0, 206	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8727

4. An exciting unit (in 2017)

Jordan Scarlett and Jordan Cronkrite are four-star sophomores who got their feet wet in 2015; Scarlett showed some nice second-level speed and put on about 20 pounds in the offseason. They're joined by hulking four-star JUCO transfer Mark Thompson. Unless opponents are still able to load the box with defenders because of a lack of respect for the passing game, there appears to be a lot of potential. And unless Thompson has some ridiculous breakout year and goes pro, all three of these backs -- and every starting lineman -- will return in 2017.

It's the same story in the receiving corps. Seniors Ahmad Fulwood and Chris Thompson could end up playing a larger role, but they are the only players not scheduled to return next fall. Antonio Callaway (who's currently suspended) had some brilliant moments as a freshman last fall, catching five passes for 112 yards against Tennessee (including the thrilling 63-yard game winner in the final 90 seconds), then catching a combined six for 210 against LSU and Georgia. Juniors Brandon Powell and tight end DeAndre Goolsby, meanwhile, had a nice rapport with Grier before fading (33 combined catches in the first seven games, 13 in the last seven).

Among JUCO slot receiver Dre Massey and four-star freshmen Tyrie Cleveland, Freddie Swain, and Josh Hammond, perhaps one or two solid backup options could emerge. But if Callaway, Powell, and Goolsby can reestablish their midseason levels, the newcomers won't be counted on TOO much. And again, whatever level this unit establishes in 2016, it should exceed it in 2017.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	100.2	2.72	3.34	34.5%	81.0%	19.4%	63.2	10.1%	11.4%
Rank	71	95	55	109	4	68	120	125	118

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Mason Halter	LT					13	46
Trip Thurman	LG					14	24
David Sharpe	LT	6'6, 357	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9434	13	13
Cameron Dillard	C	6'4, 313	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8712	11	11
Martez Ivey	LG	6'5, 305	So.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9990	8	8
Antonio Riles	LG	6'4, 313	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8753	6	6
Tyler Jordan	RG	6'4, 309	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8795	3	3
Fred Johnson	RT	6'6, 311	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8330	2	2
Travaris Dorsey	LG					0	0
Andrew Mike	RT	6'6, 301	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8767	0	0
Kavaris Harkless	LT	6'5, 310	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8491	0	0
Brandon Sandifer	LG	6'3, 323	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8600
Richerd Desir-Jones	RG	6'4, 292	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8382
Nick Buchanan	RG	6'2, 301	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8276
Jawaan Taylor	LG	6'5, 340	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8453
Stone Forsythe	RT	6'7, 329	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8437

5. Getting a push

All things considered, the line could have performed a lot worse last year. The Gators returned just one player with starting experience and had to lean heavily on Fordham graduate transfer Mason Halter. Thirty of 70 starts went to sophomores, and another 13 went to freshmen. So the simple fact that the run-blocking numbers didn't really regress was a moral victory.

After ranking 74th in Adj. Line Yards in 2014, UF ranked 71st in 2015. And while second-level opportunities were rare for Florida backs, that could have had as much to do with the backs. Florida was tremendous in short yardage and OK in preventing stuffs. And now six of the eight players who started at least one game last year are back.

Of course, pass protection was dreadful, among the worst in the country on both standard downs and passing downs. A lot of that had to do with Harris' tendency of holding onto the ball too long, but ... the sack rates were really bad, even for Grier. And now last year's left tackle (Halter) is gone.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.23	55	IsoPPP+	125.7	9
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	34.3%	10	Succ. Rt. +	120.0	8
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	32.4	21	Off. FP+	33.6	8
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.3	53	Redzone S&P+	102.4	62
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	26.3		ACTUAL	25.0	-1.3

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	8	6	8	9
RUSHING	25	6	20	15
PASSING	13	11	6	15
Standard Downs		28	29	32
Passing Downs		2	5	2

Q1 Rk	8	1st Down Rk	3
Q2 Rk	43	2nd Down Rk	12
Q3 Rk	2	3rd Down Rk	7
Q4 Rk	45

6. A new round of stars

It's a "depth vs. star power" situation, and the Gator defense will probably end up just fine. Probably.

Tackle Jonathan Bullard, end Alex McCalister, linebacker Antonio Morrison, safety Keanu Neal and corners Brian Poole and Vernon Hargreaves III -- just six players -- combined for 278 tackles, 46 tackles for loss (one fewer than Georgia Tech's entire defense), 18 sacks (more than 22 teams), 16 passes defensed, and three forced fumbles. That's a load of star power out the door.

But to put it lightly, Florida has a track record. Recruiting assures more present and future stars in the pipeline. Bullard's gone, but Joey Ivie and Caleb Brantley combined for 10.5 TFLs, and sophomores Khairi Clark and Taven Bryan have been waiting for an opportunity. McCallister is gone, but Bryan Cox and Cece Jefferson combined for 19 TFLs and seven sacks, and sophomore Justus Reed and Antonneous Clayton, the latest blue-chip freshman, could be ready to carve out a niche. Morrison is gone, but Alex Anzalone, injured for most of 2015, is back. Poole and Hargreaves are gone, but Jalen Tabor and Quincy Wilson are back.

Florida was deep enough to withstand a wave of injuries on the line and in the secondary and still play at a high level. That depth should withstand losses.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	113.2	2.58	2.68	37.6%	67.7%	23.9%	155.2	6.1%	13.2%
Rank	17	23	18	57	78	16	6	29	4

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jonathan Bullard	DT					14	52.5	7.3%	17.5	6.5	0	2	0	0
Bryan Cox	RUSH	6'3, 269	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8716	14	31.5	4.4%	10.5	3.5	0	1	2	1
Cece Jefferson	DE	6'1, 261	So.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9951	14	23.5	3.3%	8.5	3.5	0	1	1	1
Joey Ivie	NT	6'3, 301	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8814	10	20.0	2.8%	4.0	3.5	0	0	1	0
Alex McCalister	RUSH					9	19.5	2.7%	9.5	6.5	0	1	1	2
Jordan Sherit	DE	6'4, 254	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9063	13	19.5	2.7%	1.5	1.5	0	1	0	0
Caleb Brantley	DT	6'2, 297	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9472	13	18.5	2.6%	6.5	3.0	0	0	0	0
Khairi Clark	NT	6'2, 319	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9226	13	10.0	1.4%	1.0	1.0	0	1	0	0
Justus Reed	DE	6'3, 241	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8476	9	8.0	1.1%	2.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Taven Bryan	DT	6'5, 293	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8657	12	6.5	0.9%	1.5	0.5	0	0	0	1
Keivonnis Davis	DE	6'4, 241	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8395	4	3.5	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Thomas Holley	DT					7	1.5	0.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jabari Zuniga	RUSH	6'3, 245	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8604
Luke Ancrum	NT	6'5, 262	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8123
Antonneous Clayton	DE	6'3, 220	Fr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9821
Jordan Smith	DE	6'5, 240	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8903
Jachai Polite	DT	6'2, 271	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8538

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Antonio Morrison	MLB					14	72.5	10.0%	12.0	2.5	0	1	1	0
Jarrad Davis	WLB	6'2, 238	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8681	14	72.0	10.0%	11.0	3.5	1	4	1	0
Daniel McMillian	SLB	6'1, 223	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9729	14	19.0	2.6%	0.0	0.0	0	2	1	0
Matt Rolin	SLB	6'3, 221	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9320	3	9.5	1.3%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jeremi Powell	SLB					10	8.0	1.1%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Alex Anzalone	MLB	6'3, 241	Jr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9734	2	4.0	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Anthony Harrell	MLB					13	2.5	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kylan Johnson	SLB	6'1, 231	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8371
Rayshad Jackson	MLB	6'0, 226	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8094
Jeremian Moon	WLB	6'4, 218	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8963
David Reese	MLB	6'0, 244	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8791
Vosean Joseph	WLB	6'1, 226	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8590

7. You probably won't be able to run on Florida

Bullard and Morrison were particularly awesome against the run, providing the biggest push in Florida's No. 16 stuff rate ranking. The Gators didn't (and don't) have the biggest defensive line, which showed in short-yardage, but they were sixth overall in Rushing S&P+, and Bullard and Morrison had a huge role in that.

Still, Ivie and Clark are immense at the nose, and Brantley and Bryan are strong. And in Anzalone, Jarrad Davis (7.5 non-sack TFLs in 2015), and company, the linebacking corps appears experienced and fast. Again, there's a leap of faith here; we have to assume that Anzalone breaks through, that players like Bryan and Clark are ready for more responsibility, etc.

But Florida has ranked in the Def. S&P+ top 10 for seven of the last eight years, a span that includes multiple head coaches and coordinators.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Keanu Neal	FS					12	73.5	10.2%	3.5	2	1	1	1	0
Marcus Maye	SS	6'0, 216	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9487	13	64.0	8.9%	1.5	0	2	6	5	0
Brian Poole	CB					14	32.0	4.4%	3.5	0.5	0	10	0	0
Teez Tabor	CB	6'0, 201	Jr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9923	13	30.5	4.2%	4	1	4	14	0	0
Vernon Hargreaves III	CB					13	28.0	3.9%	1	0	4	4	1	0
Quincy Wilson	CB	6'1, 213	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8821	14	21.0	2.9%	0	0	2	5	0	0
Nick Washington	FS	6'0, 197	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9183	14	19.5	2.7%	0.5	0	0	0	1	0
Marcell Harris	SS	6'1, 211	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9636	12	16.5	2.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Duke Dawson	NB	5'10, 208	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9191	14	7.5	1.0%	0	0	0	0	1	0
Chris Williamson	CB	5'11, 191	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8761
Joseph Putu	CB	6'2, 195	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8356
Chauncey Gardner	NB	5'11, 204	Fr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9760
Jeawon Tyler	FS	6'0, 187	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8868
McArthur Burnett	CB	5'9, 174	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8709
Quincy Lenton	SS	5'11, 202	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8616
C.J. McWilliams	CB	5'11, 171	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8290

8. Turnover (and star power) in the back

If a problem emerges for Florida's defense in 2016, it will probably come from iffy depth in the secondary. Six players with at least 7.5 tackles return, and all of them are either juniors or seniors. And in Jalen Tabor and Marcus Maye, the Gators have at least a couple of proven entities. But in theory, they are just a couple of injuries away from playing newcomers.

That's a reach, though. This is going to be a really good defense. Again. Depth and experience should result in improvement on standard downs, and that should account for any sort of passing downs regression that might take place with new (and experienced) starters in the secondary.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Johnny Townsend	6'1, 211	Jr.	83	45.4	5	26	23	59.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Austin Hardin			44	64.2	29	2	65.9%
Jorge Powell	5'10, 177	So.	18	62.8	6	1	33.3%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Austin Hardin			24-27	4-10	40.0%	1-4	25.0%
Jorge Powell	5'10, 177	So.	10-11	2-3	66.7%	0-0	N/A

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Brandon Powell	KR	5'9, 184	Jr.	24	21.3	0
Vernon Hargreaves III	KR			4	20.5	0
Antonio Callaway	PR	5'11, 197	So.	28	15.5	2
Vernon Hargreaves III	PR			2	5.5	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	97
Field Goal Efficiency	126
Punt Return Success Rate	71
Kick Return Success Rate	128
Punt Success Rate	3
Kickoff Success Rate	16

9. Great and terrible

To put it lightly, Florida's special teams unit was a mixed bag.

Johnny Townsend was spectacular, kickoffs and coverage were tremendous and the Gators had six punt returns of 20-plus yards, ninth in the country.

Also: they had fewer good kick returns than anybody in FBS, and while you want to hit at least 80 percent of your field goals under 40 yards, Florida hit a dreadful 46 percent.

Because of the importance of place-kicking in the Special Teams S&P+ equation, Florida ranked 97th despite the punts, kickoffs, and punt returns.

Townsend and Callaway are back, but Austin Hardin, the man responsible for the good kickoffs and bad field goals, transferred. So ... another mixed bag coming up, probably.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
3-Sep	Massachusetts	127	35.1	98%
10-Sep	Kentucky	83	20.4	88%
17-Sep	North Texas	128	35.9	98%
24-Sep	at Tennessee	9	-6.0	37%
1-Oct	at Vanderbilt	69	9.2	70%
8-Oct	LSU	2	-6.4	36%
15-Oct	Missouri	47	12.9	77%
29-Oct	vs. Georgia	15	-1.7	46%
5-Nov	at Arkansas	17	-4.2	40%
12-Nov	South Carolina	63	15.2	81%
19-Nov	Presbyterian	NR	47.8	100%
26-Nov	at Florida State	5	-8.6	31%
Projected wins: 8.0

Five-Year F/+ Rk	26.1% (20)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	20 / 12
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	8 / 6.1
2015 TO Luck/Game	+0.8
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	61% (63%, 59%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	9.2 (0.8)

10. A 3-0 start, and then...

Florida will have a stellar defense and an offense too inexperienced to play at a high level. You could have basically written that sentence at any point in the last five years, and you'd have probably ended up right. It feels lazy to say it again in 2016, but ... here we are

The offense has potential, and fall camp optimism has the offense improving drastically and showing a lot of progress, but there's massive burden of proof here.

The good news is that the schedule allows for a breaking-in period. Per S&P+, the Gators have an 85 percent chance of starting the season 3-0, and easy wins, particularly over UMass and North Texas, should allow for a lot of guys to get involved offensively. Maybe that helps to light a spark.

But from a probabilities standpoint, the water gets a lot muddier, starting with the September 24 trip to Knoxville. Over the final nine games, the Gators are projected to win only 5.2 games and are projected underdogs in five. There are likely wins mixed in, with visits from Missouri, South Carolina, and Presbyterian, but the season will be defined by trickier games, most of which happen away from Gainesville.

McElwain answered a lot of questions over the first half of his first season in charge, then, for lack of a better term, un-answered them over the second half. He still has a pedigree that suggests success is coming, and both sides of the ball are loaded with potential young stars. But 2016 could be yet another transition year toward whatever Florida might become down the road.