Dan Mullen is as good at coaching Mississippi State as he is bad at public relations

Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year's team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year's roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

1. Roster Management 101

Dan Mullen hasn't had the most enjoyable offseason.

The eighth-year Mississippi State head coach has won 19 games over the last two years and 50 over the last six but has had to deal with some doom-and-gloom forecasts. Now that quarterback Dak Prescott is gone, conventional wisdom says his Bulldogs are supposed to sink back toward the bottom of the rugged SEC West.

Granted, this means he's been able to fill the "DISRESPECT!!!" coffers for his players. But even if this is bad news disguised as good news, Mullen has also had a PR nightmare of his own doing. Mississippi State suspended Jeffery Simmons, blue-chip freshman and bellcow of the 2016 signing class, for one game for punching a woman, and then Mullen failed to explain his program's decision when confronted at SEC Media Days.

We can talk about the missing context of that statement -- Simmons was trying to break up a fight, he was defending his family, etc. -- but even by college football's mostly awful standards, a one-game suspension is pretty pathetic. He received the same punishment for blowing a gasket as he might have for blowing a class. The school quite clearly played favorites, not wanting a potential star to lose much time or instead attend a rival university. Athletic director Scott Stricklin basically admitted the latter part.

So yeah, Mullen deserved to have a frustrating offseason, whether he was directly or indirectly involved in the announced punishment.

This came after another winter with Mullen in the coaching carousel. He was tied to seemingly every vacant power-conference job, and while that was perhaps as much an attempt at gaining leverage with his own university, it was also a reminder of MSU's perceived placement in college football's pecking order.

Now MSU will soon take the field, where Mullen's engineered a remarkable run. Here's a list of the eight teams that have finished in the S&P+ top 20 each of the last three years: Alabama, Baylor, Clemson, LSU, Mississippi State, Ohio State, Stanford, and (just barely) USC.

Five of the eight are recruiting powers, Baylor has (had?) built the best offensive powerhouse in the country, and Stanford is nearly an elite recruiter. But with a five-year recruiting ranking of just 27th and a rotating cast of characters at defensive coordinator (Mullen's now on his third in three years), MSU has sustained a high level of play, perhaps its highest since before World War II. While Prescott played a huge role in that, he wasn't the only one.

Mullen has mastered the art of roster balance. Just about every unit has experienced upperclassmen and exciting underclassmen. Like Stanford's David Shaw, he seems to go out of his way to get a lot of guys experience, and he has been able to replace important talent with guys of a similar stature from year to year.

Now comes the ultimate test. If you ignore quarterback, MSU appears loaded with depth and intriguing talent once again. The top four running backs are back, joined by a four-star redshirt freshman. Four of the top six wideouts are back, joined by two four-star true freshmen. Five offensive linemen return with starting experience -- three seniors and two sophomores.

On defense, it's the same story. The star of the line (A.J. Jefferson) returns and is joined by five players who made at least 7.5 tackles last year, a four-star redshirt freshman, and, yes, Simmons. The quarterback of the linebacking corps (Richie Brown) is back alongside three contributors and a pair of four-star freshmen. The top three tacklers in the secondary are back, along with four other contributors, two of whom are sophomores.

This is a Mississippi State team, in other words.

But now we find out exactly how much Prescott was worth. Can depth offset the loss of your biggest star? MSU is stocked with potential replacements -- junior Damian Williams, sophomore Nick Fitzgerald, redshirt freshman Nick Tiano -- but with almost certain drop-off at the most important position, can that carry MSU?

This is Bill C's daily preview series, working its way through every 2016 team. Catch up on the SEC so far!

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 9-4 | Adj. Record: 9-4 | Final F/+ Rk: 16 | Final S&P+ Rk: 16
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
5-Sep	at Southern Miss	56	34-16	W	87%	84%	-1.7	-3.0
12-Sep	LSU	10	19-21	L	41%	8%	+2.1	+3.0
19-Sep	Northwestern State	N/A	62-13	W	95%	100%	+4.9
26-Sep	at Auburn	33	17-9	W	84%	91%	+7.0	+9.5
3-Oct	at Texas A&M	34	17-30	L	24%	1%	-2.4	-6.0
10-Oct	Troy	90	45-17	W	98%	100%	+8.0	-2.5
17-Oct	Louisiana Tech	57	45-20	W	91%	92%	+25.0	+11.5
24-Oct	Kentucky	91	42-16	W	95%	100%	+11.6	+14.5
5-Nov	at Missouri	75	31-13	W	90%	99%	+5.5	+10.5
14-Nov	Alabama	1	6-31	L	30%	0%	-18.6	-17.5
21-Nov	at Arkansas	11	51-50	W	76%	63%	+4.5	+4.5
28-Nov	Ole Miss	5	27-38	L	40%	3%	-9.3	-10.0
30-Dec	vs. NC State	49	51-28	W	92%	97%	+21.1	+17.5

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	39.2	16	24.2	40
Points Per Game	34.4	33	23.2	36

2. A late defensive fade

There was quite a bit of turnover in the defensive front seven heading into 2015. Both the line and linebacking corps had to replace three of their top five tacklers, and while the Bulldogs were pretty lucky there from an injuries perspective, iffy depth up front and a couple of key losses in the secondary seemed to spark some late-season issues.

• First 9 games:
  Record: 7-2 | Average percentile performance: 78% (~top 30) | Yards per play: MSU 6.6, Opp 4.9 (+1.7)
• Last 4 games:
  Record: 2-2 | Average percentile performance: 60% (~top 50) | Yards per play: Opp 6.5, MSU 6.1 (-0.4)

Playing Alabama, Arkansas, and Ole Miss will probably prompt some defensive breakdowns, but the difference in quality was stark. Manny Diaz's defense looked the part for a little while, then very much did not.

In a way, this was only so costly. MSU was going to lose to Alabama anyway and managed to pull off a win in an incredible back-and-forth contest in Fayetteville. But the Ole Miss game would have perhaps flipped in MSU's favor had the Bulldogs allowed, say, 6.2 yards per play instead of 7.2.

Diaz is gone, but the front seven doesn't lose quite as much this offseason. The defense will likely need to improve to offset offensive regression, but with three top-30 Def. S&P+ performances in the last five years, that is at least a possibility.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.27	63	IsoPPP+	121.0	17
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	46.2%	20	Succ. Rt. +	118.7	11
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	28.3	39	Def. FP+	27.9	34
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	5.2	11	Redzone S&P+	123.8	6
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	26.9		ACTUAL	18	-8.9

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	31	13	11	17
RUSHING	101	37	28	47
PASSING	14	12	10	13
Standard Downs		16	15	22
Passing Downs		13	13	15

Q1 Rk	7	1st Down Rk	12
Q2 Rk	13	2nd Down Rk	23
Q3 Rk	30	3rd Down Rk	3
Q4 Rk	1

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Dak Prescott					316	477	3793	29	5	66.2%	29	5.7%	7.1
Nick Fitzgerald	6'5, 230	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8133	11	14	235	3	0	78.6%	0	0.0%	16.8
Damian Williams (2014)	6'1, 229	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8218	14	23	155	3	0	60.9%	2	8.0%	5.1
Elijah Staley					3	5	51	1	0	60.0%	0	0.0%	10.2
Nick Tiano	6'4, 239	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8525
Wyatt Roberts	6', 195	Jr.	NR	NR

3. New QB Roulette!

Tyler Russell was pretty good when healthy. Prescott's predecessor was fantastic during MSU's 7-0 start in 2012 and played well against LSU and Arkansas late in that season, too. He was particularly good on passing downs.

Russell suffered a concussion early in 2013 and played only sporadically; he was replaced by Prescott but came back to play beautiful football in a late-season win over Arkansas. His passer rating over his final two seasons: a solid 136.9.

I mention this only to remind you Mississippi State can produce a pretty solid quarterback not named Dak.

There's no question the Bulldogs' level of play rose over the last two years, when Prescott became ingrained as MSU starter. His ability to pick up tough yards on the ground while also passing efficiently was invaluable. But the product doesn't have to completely collapse in his absence.

I like where the current baseline is set. Granted, most of Nick Fitzgerald's action came against Northwestern State and Troy last year, but the simple fact that his rushing numbers were as efficient as Prescott's and his passing numbers were almost literally perfect was a reminder that there could be life after Dak.

We shouldn't overreact to small samples (just ask Auburn's Jeremy Johnson), and the fact that Fitzgerald hasn't run away with the starting job tells you he probably isn't as good as his sample suggested. But he's big, reasonably mobile, and throws a pretty accurate ball. If someone beats him out, that someone is probably pretty solid.

Also, MSU just added Wyatt Roberts, who started over Auburn's John Franklin III for most of the JUCO season chronicled in Netflix's Last Chance U.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Dak Prescott	QB					131	780	10	6.0	5.9	40.5%	9	4
Brandon Holloway	RB	5'8, 165	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8494	93	413	0	4.4	3.4	38.7%	3	2
Ashton Shumpert	RB	6'2, 218	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9189	59	228	1	3.9	2.9	33.9%	2	2
Aeris Williams	RB	6'1, 217	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9016	40	206	3	5.2	3.7	47.5%	1	1
Nick Fitzgerald	QB	6'5, 230	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8133	23	127	3	5.5	5.1	43.5%	1	0
Dontavian Lee	RB	6'1, 230	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8358	22	137	0	6.2	6.2	40.9%	0	0
Malik Dear	WR	5'9, 220	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9100	11	110	1	10.0	14.9	45.5%	0	0
Gabe Myles	WR	6'0, 195	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8532	7	11	1	1.6	2.7	28.6%	0	0
Nick Gibson	RB	5'11, 204	RSFr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.8914
Alec Murphy	RB	6'0, 230	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8581

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Fred Ross	SLOT	6'2, 205	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9187	121	88	1007	72.7%	24.8%	8.3	64.5%	54.5%	1.40
De'Runnya Wilson	WR					98	60	918	61.2%	20.1%	9.4	63.3%	58.2%	1.52
Brandon Holloway	RB	5'8, 165	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8494	43	33	396	76.7%	8.8%	9.2	62.8%	41.9%	2.14
Fred Brown	WR					42	27	412	64.3%	8.6%	9.8	69.0%	59.5%	1.50
Malik Dear	SLOT	5'9, 220	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9100	31	23	226	74.2%	6.4%	7.3	83.9%	64.5%	1.04
Donald Gray	WR	5'10, 204	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9131	30	21	386	70.0%	6.2%	12.9	63.3%	56.7%	2.14
Gus Walley	TE					25	19	146	76.0%	5.1%	5.8	80.0%	48.0%	1.19
Ashton Shumpert	RB	6'2, 218	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9189	21	13	109	61.9%	4.3%	5.2	52.4%	33.3%	1.42
Gabe Myles	WR	6'0, 195	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8532	19	12	175	63.2%	3.9%	9.2	57.9%	31.6%	2.98
Darrion Hutcherson	TE					19	16	164	84.2%	3.9%	8.6	73.7%	52.6%	1.57
Joe Morrow	WR					13	6	100	46.2%	2.7%	7.7	61.5%	46.2%	1.58
Aeris Williams	RB	6'1, 217	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9016	8	6	18	75.0%	1.6%	2.3	50.0%	25.0%	0.72
Justin Johnson	TE	6'3, 239	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8550	7	5	41	71.4%	1.4%	5.9	71.4%	71.4%	0.80
Jesse Jackson	WR	6'2, 211	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8867	3	0	0	0.0%	0.6%	0.0	66.7%	0.0%	0.00
Deddrick Thomas	WR	5'9, 188	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8708
Keith Mixon	SLOT	5'8, 175	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8593
Jonnas Spivey	WR	6'0, 200	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8489
Farrod Green	TE	6'3, 232	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8176
Jordan Thomas	TE	6'5, 295	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8626
Reginald Todd	WR	6'4, 192	Fr.	NR	0.9100
Jamal Couch	WR	6'4, 223	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8863
Dontea Jones	TE	6'4, 254	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8641

4. Efficiency options are a new QB's best friend

The run game stopped producing quite as many big plays when running back Josh Robinson and three starting linemen departed. But the efficiency was still decent with little Brandon Holloway and big Ashton Shumpert and Aeris Williams splitting carries. Meanwhile, almost no team was able to more efficiently lean on its slot receivers than MSU; Fred Ross had a wonderful 55 percent success rate, and backup Malik Dear (65 percent) exceeded even that in limited chances.

If you've got running backs who can consistently gain four or five yards (Holloway also averaged 9.2 yards per target), and if you've got slot receivers who can consistently gain six to eight, you're going to be able to prevent a new quarterback from facing too many second- or third-and-long situations. That's very good.

Granted, you also want big plays so that you don't have to operate mistake-free for eight to 10 snaps at a time to score points. And unless a receiver like Donald Gray or Gabe Myles successfully takes on a larger role, I'm not sure who will provide those. But efficiency is step one.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	111.9	2.91	3.44	40.4%	71.4%	20.2%	104.4	5.6%	7.4%
Rank	17	62	45	45	35	83	56	78	64

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Justin Malone	LG					13	29
Justin Senior	RT	6'5, 310	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8130	12	26
Devon Desper	RG	6'4, 305	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8694	13	15
Jamaal Clayborn	C	6'4, 315	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8342	12	12
Rufus Warren	LT					11	11
Elgton Jenkins	LT	6'4, 305	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8306	3	3
Deion Calhoun	LG	6'3, 308	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8106	1	1
Jocquell Johnson	C	6'4, 301	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8503	0	0
Damien Robinson	RG					0	0
Cole Carter	RT					0	0
Martinas Rankin	LT	6'5, 307	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9125	0	0
Darryl Williams	RG	6'2, 303	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8758
Harrison Moon	C	6'4, 290	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8535
Michael Story	LG	6'4, 295	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8324
Stewart Reese	RG	6'5, 340	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8793
Greg Eiland	LT	6'7, 304	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8529
Dareuan Parker	LG	6'4, 325	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8249

5. A line you can probably lean on

The MSU offensive line wasn't quite as successful as 2014's, which makes sense considering the Bulldogs lost two 40-game starters and an all-conference guard. The leaks were a bit more prevalent in run blocking, but MSU was still solid in short yardage. (Having Prescott probably didn't hurt those numbers.)

Two more starters are gone this year, but the experience level appears solid, with three senior starters returning, along with two sophomores who saw spot starts, a four-star JUCO redshirt (Martinas Rankin), and a veteran reserve (Jocquell Johnson). Unless the new QB is far less of a short-yardage presence than Prescott, the line should be fine. It's all about big plays with this offense -- the efficiency should be there.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.19	29	IsoPPP+	110.2	37
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	42.6%	77	Succ. Rt. +	101.8	58
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	29.6	74	Off. FP+	29.9	64
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.2	45	Redzone S&P+	107.7	35
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	20.3		ACTUAL	14.0	-6.3

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	56	45	58	37
RUSHING	70	50	53	44
PASSING	57	43	68	36
Standard Downs		55	77	41
Passing Downs		23	20	27

Q1 Rk	37	1st Down Rk	42
Q2 Rk	49	2nd Down Rk	29
Q3 Rk	50	3rd Down Rk	36
Q4 Rk	48

6. A Peter Sirmon defense

As with his first stint in Starkville (2010), Diaz served one year as Mullen's coordinator before taking on another gig.

He wasn't quite as successful the second time -- despite decent havoc numbers, the Bulldogs weren't as efficient as they needed to be. MSU stiffened in short-yardage situations and invaded the backfield a decent amount, but opponents still gained at least five yards in 42 percent of their carries (103rd in FBS). Meanwhile, the secondary allowed a 61 percent completion rate; take out the Missouri and NC State games, and that rises to 63 percent.

MSU was still strong on passing downs but struggled to force them. And now Mullen brings in a coach from a defense that forced passing downs well but let opponents off the hook.

USC's 2015 defense ranked 14th in Standard Downs Success Rate+ but only 39th on passing downs; the Trojans didn't have quite enough disruptive pieces up front, and a young secondary suffered too many glitches to play at a level commensurate with its recruiting rankings. Peter Sirmon was Justin Wilcox's linebackers coach on that defense. He served under Wilcox at Tennessee, Washington, and USC, and he also served as recruiting coordinator at those last two stops. One assumes he's being brought in as much for recruiting as for his proven defensive prowess, but he could still succeed as coordinator.

Wilcox tends to lean on a 3-4 defense, but Sirmon seems to be preaching flexibility. (Diaz did the same.) His "VIPER" position will serve as a defensive end/outside linebacker hybrid.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	108	2.86	2.82	41.9%	56.0%	22.4%	116.4	6.7%	7.0%
Rank	39	64	33	103	18	36	38	18	74

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
A.J. Jefferson	DE	6'3, 280	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8874	13	37.0	4.7%	13.5	5.0	0	3	1	0
Chris Jones	NG					13	30.0	3.8%	7.5	2.5	0	4	0	0
Ryan Brown	DE					12	26.0	3.3%	8.0	2.5	0	5	0	0
Johnathan Calvin	DE	6'3, 272	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8656	13	19.5	2.5%	5.5	1.5	0	0	0	0
Nick James	NG	6'5, 320	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9246	13	17.5	2.2%	3.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Nelson Adams	NG	6'3, 305	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8547	13	15.5	2.0%	1.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Will Coleman	DE	6'5, 250	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8610	13	11.0	1.4%	2.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
Torrey Dale	DE	6'6, 277	Sr.	NR	0.8376	13	7.5	1.0%	0.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
Cory Thomas	DE	6'5, 313	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8631	8	2.0	0.3%	1.0	1.0	1	0	0	0
Braxton Hoyett	NG	6'3, 305	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7985	7	2.0	0.3%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Fletcher Adams	DE	6'2, 274	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9234
Tre Brown	NG	6'4, 309	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8544
Jeffery Simmons	DE	6'4, 310	Fr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9862
Kobe Jones	DL	6'3, 278	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.9026

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Richie Brown	ILB	6'2, 240	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8865	13	80.0	10.2%	13.0	6.5	1	2	0	0
Beniquez Brown	ILB					13	73.5	9.4%	11.0	4.0	1	2	0	0
J.T. Gray	OLB	6'0, 197	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8590	13	46.0	5.9%	3.5	1.5	0	0	0	0
Gerri Green	VIPER	6'4, 243	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8981	13	34.5	4.4%	2.5	0.0	2	1	0	0
Zach Jackson	LB					11	32.0	4.1%	4.0	1.0	0	2	0	0
DeAndre Ward	OLB	6'1, 219	Sr.	NR	NR	13	11.0	1.4%	1.0	0.5	0	0	0	0
Dezmond Harris	LB	6'4, 236	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8144	7	6.0	0.8%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kelan Chairs	ILB	6'0, 218	Jr.	NR	NR	12	2.0	0.3%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Traver Jung	OLB	6'3, 229	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8762
Leo Lewis	ILB	6'2, 230	RSFr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9674
Tim Washington	ILB	6'3, 225	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8838
Anfernee Mullins	VIPER	6'3, 261	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8426
Marquiss Spencer	VIPER	6'3, 270	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9047
Erroll Thompson	LB	6'1, 262	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8784

7. Few boring plays

At first glance, Sirmon should have some attacking talent up front.

Jefferson is exciting, and he's big enough to withstand the role of a 3-4 defensive end when asked to do so. Linebacker Richie Brown is a shit-stirrer on the interior. Ends Johnathan Calvin and Will Coleman could thrive given more opportunities, big sophomore Cory Thomas barely saw the field but still made a sack and interception, JUCO transfer Tre Brown adds another big body to the mix, and youngsters Fletcher Adams, Kobe Jones, and (fair or not) Simmons are all big and athletic enough to contribute.

Meanwhile, sophomore Gerri Green could take well to the VIPER position -- he's the size of a 4-3 defensive end (6'4, 243), and he proved dangerous in both run support (2.5 non-sack tackles for loss) and pass coverage (three passes defensed).

These are all good things! But attacking wasn't really the problem for MSU last year. The problem was when the attacks didn't hit their mark. Solid safety play helped to prevent too many serious gashes, but if the Bulldogs didn't make a stop behind the line, they were giving up five or 10 yards. The Wilcox USC defense wasn't quite as aggressive as MSU's, but it will be interesting to see how Sirmon balances this risk-reward exchange.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Kivon Coman	FS	6'3, 205	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8317	13	57.5	7.3%	4	0.5	1	7	0	0
Brandon Bryant	SS	6'0, 215	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8640	13	54.5	6.9%	2	1.5	3	3	1	0
Tolando Cleveland	CB	6'0, 190	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8268	13	34.5	4.4%	4.5	1	0	3	1	0
Taveze Calhoun	CB					12	31.5	4.0%	6.5	0	2	8	0	0
Deontay Evans	FS					13	26.5	3.4%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Will Redmond	CB					7	21.5	2.7%	0	0	2	1	0	0
Jamoral Graham	CB	5'10, 183	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9148	12	19.5	2.5%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Jamal Peters	FS	6'2, 217	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9720	12	18.5	2.4%	1.5	1	0	2	0	0
Kendrick Market	SS					4	18.0	2.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Mark McLaurin	SS	6'2, 218	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8598	12	15.0	1.9%	0	0	0	3	0	0
Cedric Jiles	CB	5'10, 186	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8559	12	11.5	1.5%	0	0	0	4	0	0
Chris Rayford	CB	6'0, 199	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8216	13	4.0	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Maurice Smitherman	FS	5'9, 185	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8807
Chris Stamps	CB	6'0, 179	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8670
Lashard Durr	CB	5'11, 197	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8626
C.J. Morgan	SS	6'0, 197	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8721
Korey Charles	DB	5'10, 175	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8696

8. Another SEC defense with fantastic safeties

The SEC is absolutely stocked at safety. It's also a strength for MSU, where senior Kivon Coman and sophomore Brandon Bryant combined for six TFLs and 14 passes defensed last year and fellow sophomores Jamal Peters (a former blue-chipper) and Mark McLaurin forced their way onto the field as well.

Sirmon appears to appreciate simplicity in the back, but if or when he decides to go with a nickel look, he should easily have the guys to pull it off. And all three of the sophomore safeties are big enough to play a bit of a linebacker role if need be.

Cornerback is a bit more of a question mark. Tolando Cleveland and Jamoral Graham are back, as is senior reserve Cedric Jiles (who broke up four passes in limited chances), so pure experience isn't an issue. But MSU must replace maybe its two best play-makers at the position (Taveze Calhoun, Will Redmond), and a lot could be expected of JUCO transfer Lashard Durr. Still, it would be surprising if MSU didn't improve on last year's No. 43 ranking in Passing S&P+.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Logan Cooke	6'5, 224	Jr.	44	42.2	7	20	15	79.5%
Devon Bell			9	41.1	1	4	2	66.7%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Devon Bell			80	62.1	33	2	41.3%
Logan Cooke	6'5, 224	Jr.	4	49.3	2	0	50.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Westin Graves	6'0, 163	Jr.	52-54	12-13	92.3%	3-5	60.0%
Devon Bell			2-2	0-0	N/A	0-1	0.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Brandon Holloway	KR	5'8, 165	Sr.	24	23.6	1
Malik Dear	KR	5'9, 220	So.	5	19.8	0
Fred Ross	PR	6'2, 205	Sr.	15	10.5	1

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	24
Field Goal Efficiency	39
Punt Return Success Rate	51
Kick Return Success Rate	58
Punt Success Rate	65
Kickoff Success Rate	38

9. Big legs

Most of the components of a solid special teams unit return. Logan Cooke's punts were high and mostly unreturnable (opponents managed only 10 attempted returns in 2015, seventh-fewest in the country), and Westin Graves was a reliable kicker. Meanwhile, returns were a bit all-or-nothing, but MSU scored a touchdown via both kick and punt return. You'll take that.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
3-Sep	South Alabama	115	29.9	96%
10-Sep	South Carolina	63	14.3	80%
17-Sep	at LSU	2	-14.3	20%
24-Sep	at Massachusetts	127	27.2	94%
8-Oct	Auburn	24	4.6	60%
14-Oct	at BYU	35	1.7	54%
22-Oct	at Kentucky	83	12.5	76%
29-Oct	Samford	NR	36.7	98%
5-Nov	Texas A&M	25	4.6	61%
12-Nov	at Alabama	1	-16.7	17%
19-Nov	Arkansas	17	1.9	54%
26-Nov	at Ole Miss	7	-8.8	30%
Projected wins: 7.4

Five-Year F/+ Rk	22.9% (23)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	23 / 27
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	-4 / -6.6
2015 TO Luck/Game	+1.0
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	56% (44%, 69%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	8.4 (0.6)

10. October is enormous

Mississippi State's over-under win total was set at 6.5 back in May, but S&P+ seems to like the Bulldogs' chances of exceeding that. With September games against South Alabama, South Carolina, and UMass, the Bulldogs are a good bet to start 3-1 at worst; that would set up a pair of hinge games.

Per S&P+, MSU will have a 32 percent chance of beating both Auburn and BYU, an 18 percent chance of losing both games, and a 50-50 shot at splitting the pair. Win both, and there's a chance MSU heads into November at 7-1, again bordering on a top-10 poll ranking, even with a downward turn at QB.

The finish will be rough again (S&P+ says there's a 75 percent chance MSU goes either 1-2 or 0-3 in the last three games), but what a statement it would be for MSU to once again make noise and post a comfortable win total a year after Prescott.