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Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year's team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year's roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.
1. Roster Management 101
Dan Mullen hasn't had the most enjoyable offseason.
The eighth-year Mississippi State head coach has won 19 games over the last two years and 50 over the last six but has had to deal with some doom-and-gloom forecasts. Now that quarterback Dak Prescott is gone, conventional wisdom says his Bulldogs are supposed to sink back toward the bottom of the rugged SEC West.
Granted, this means he's been able to fill the "DISRESPECT!!!" coffers for his players. But even if this is bad news disguised as good news, Mullen has also had a PR nightmare of his own doing. Mississippi State suspended Jeffery Simmons, blue-chip freshman and bellcow of the 2016 signing class, for one game for punching a woman, and then Mullen failed to explain his program's decision when confronted at SEC Media Days.
We can talk about the missing context of that statement -- Simmons was trying to break up a fight, he was defending his family, etc. -- but even by college football's mostly awful standards, a one-game suspension is pretty pathetic. He received the same punishment for blowing a gasket as he might have for blowing a class. The school quite clearly played favorites, not wanting a potential star to lose much time or instead attend a rival university. Athletic director Scott Stricklin basically admitted the latter part.
So yeah, Mullen deserved to have a frustrating offseason, whether he was directly or indirectly involved in the announced punishment.
This came after another winter with Mullen in the coaching carousel. He was tied to seemingly every vacant power-conference job, and while that was perhaps as much an attempt at gaining leverage with his own university, it was also a reminder of MSU's perceived placement in college football's pecking order.
Now MSU will soon take the field, where Mullen's engineered a remarkable run. Here's a list of the eight teams that have finished in the S&P+ top 20 each of the last three years: Alabama, Baylor, Clemson, LSU, Mississippi State, Ohio State, Stanford, and (just barely) USC.
Five of the eight are recruiting powers, Baylor has (had?) built the best offensive powerhouse in the country, and Stanford is nearly an elite recruiter. But with a five-year recruiting ranking of just 27th and a rotating cast of characters at defensive coordinator (Mullen's now on his third in three years), MSU has sustained a high level of play, perhaps its highest since before World War II. While Prescott played a huge role in that, he wasn't the only one.
Mullen has mastered the art of roster balance. Just about every unit has experienced upperclassmen and exciting underclassmen. Like Stanford's David Shaw, he seems to go out of his way to get a lot of guys experience, and he has been able to replace important talent with guys of a similar stature from year to year.
Now comes the ultimate test. If you ignore quarterback, MSU appears loaded with depth and intriguing talent once again. The top four running backs are back, joined by a four-star redshirt freshman. Four of the top six wideouts are back, joined by two four-star true freshmen. Five offensive linemen return with starting experience -- three seniors and two sophomores.
On defense, it's the same story. The star of the line (A.J. Jefferson) returns and is joined by five players who made at least 7.5 tackles last year, a four-star redshirt freshman, and, yes, Simmons. The quarterback of the linebacking corps (Richie Brown) is back alongside three contributors and a pair of four-star freshmen. The top three tacklers in the secondary are back, along with four other contributors, two of whom are sophomores.
This is a Mississippi State team, in other words.
But now we find out exactly how much Prescott was worth. Can depth offset the loss of your biggest star? MSU is stocked with potential replacements -- junior Damian Williams, sophomore Nick Fitzgerald, redshirt freshman Nick Tiano -- but with almost certain drop-off at the most important position, can that carry MSU?
This is Bill C's daily preview series, working its way through every 2016 team. Catch up on the SEC so far!
2015 Schedule & Results
Record: 9-4 | Adj. Record: 9-4 | Final F/+ Rk: 16 | Final S&P+ Rk: 16 | ||||||||
Date | Opponent | Opp. F/+ Rk | Score | W-L | Percentile Performance |
Win Expectancy |
vs. S&P+ | Performance vs. Vegas |
5-Sep | at Southern Miss | 56 | 34-16 | W | 87% | 84% | -1.7 | -3.0 |
12-Sep | LSU | 10 | 19-21 | L | 41% | 8% | +2.1 | +3.0 |
19-Sep | Northwestern State | N/A | 62-13 | W | 95% | 100% | +4.9 | |
26-Sep | at Auburn | 33 | 17-9 | W | 84% | 91% | +7.0 | +9.5 |
3-Oct | at Texas A&M | 34 | 17-30 | L | 24% | 1% | -2.4 | -6.0 |
10-Oct | Troy | 90 | 45-17 | W | 98% | 100% | +8.0 | -2.5 |
17-Oct | Louisiana Tech | 57 | 45-20 | W | 91% | 92% | +25.0 | +11.5 |
24-Oct | Kentucky | 91 | 42-16 | W | 95% | 100% | +11.6 | +14.5 |
5-Nov | at Missouri | 75 | 31-13 | W | 90% | 99% | +5.5 | +10.5 |
14-Nov | Alabama | 1 | 6-31 | L | 30% | 0% | -18.6 | -17.5 |
21-Nov | at Arkansas | 11 | 51-50 | W | 76% | 63% | +4.5 | +4.5 |
28-Nov | Ole Miss | 5 | 27-38 | L | 40% | 3% | -9.3 | -10.0 |
30-Dec | vs. NC State | 49 | 51-28 | W | 92% | 97% | +21.1 | +17.5 |
Category | Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk |
S&P+ | 39.2 | 16 | 24.2 | 40 |
Points Per Game | 34.4 | 33 | 23.2 | 36 |
2. A late defensive fade
There was quite a bit of turnover in the defensive front seven heading into 2015. Both the line and linebacking corps had to replace three of their top five tacklers, and while the Bulldogs were pretty lucky there from an injuries perspective, iffy depth up front and a couple of key losses in the secondary seemed to spark some late-season issues.
- First 9 games:
Record: 7-2 | Average percentile performance: 78% (~top 30) | Yards per play: MSU 6.6, Opp 4.9 (+1.7) - Last 4 games:
Record: 2-2 | Average percentile performance: 60% (~top 50) | Yards per play: Opp 6.5, MSU 6.1 (-0.4)
Playing Alabama, Arkansas, and Ole Miss will probably prompt some defensive breakdowns, but the difference in quality was stark. Manny Diaz's defense looked the part for a little while, then very much did not.
In a way, this was only so costly. MSU was going to lose to Alabama anyway and managed to pull off a win in an incredible back-and-forth contest in Fayetteville. But the Ole Miss game would have perhaps flipped in MSU's favor had the Bulldogs allowed, say, 6.2 yards per play instead of 7.2.
Diaz is gone, but the front seven doesn't lose quite as much this offseason. The defense will likely need to improve to offset offensive regression, but with three top-30 Def. S&P+ performances in the last five years, that is at least a possibility.
Offense
FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE | ||||||
Raw Category | Rk | Opp. Adj. Category | Rk | |||
EXPLOSIVENESS | IsoPPP | 1.27 | 63 | IsoPPP+ | 121.0 | 17 |
EFFICIENCY | Succ. Rt. | 46.2% | 20 | Succ. Rt. + | 118.7 | 11 |
FIELD POSITION | Def. Avg. FP | 28.3 | 39 | Def. FP+ | 27.9 | 34 |
FINISHING DRIVES | Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity | 5.2 | 11 | Redzone S&P+ | 123.8 | 6 |
TURNOVERS | EXPECTED | 26.9 | ACTUAL | 18 | -8.9 |
Category | Yards/ Game Rk |
S&P+ Rk | Success Rt. Rk |
PPP+ Rk |
OVERALL | 31 | 13 | 11 | 17 |
RUSHING | 101 | 37 | 28 | 47 |
PASSING | 14 | 12 | 10 | 13 |
Standard Downs | 16 | 15 | 22 | |
Passing Downs | 13 | 13 | 15 |
Q1 Rk | 7 | 1st Down Rk | 12 |
Q2 Rk | 13 | 2nd Down Rk | 23 |
Q3 Rk | 30 | 3rd Down Rk | 3 |
Q4 Rk | 1 |
Quarterback
Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.
Player | Ht, Wt | 2016 Year |
Rivals | 247 Comp. | Comp | Att | Yards | TD | INT | Comp Rate |
Sacks | Sack Rate | Yards/ Att. |
Dak Prescott | 316 | 477 | 3793 | 29 | 5 | 66.2% | 29 | 5.7% | 7.1 | ||||
Nick Fitzgerald | 6'5, 230 | So. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.8133 | 11 | 14 | 235 | 3 | 0 | 78.6% | 0 | 0.0% | 16.8 |
Damian Williams (2014) |
6'1, 229 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8218 | 14 | 23 | 155 | 3 | 0 | 60.9% | 2 | 8.0% | 5.1 |
Elijah Staley | 3 | 5 | 51 | 1 | 0 | 60.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 10.2 | ||||
Nick Tiano | 6'4, 239 | RSFr. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8525 | |||||||||
Wyatt Roberts | 6', 195 | Jr. | NR | NR |
3. New QB Roulette!
Tyler Russell was pretty good when healthy. Prescott's predecessor was fantastic during MSU's 7-0 start in 2012 and played well against LSU and Arkansas late in that season, too. He was particularly good on passing downs.
Russell suffered a concussion early in 2013 and played only sporadically; he was replaced by Prescott but came back to play beautiful football in a late-season win over Arkansas. His passer rating over his final two seasons: a solid 136.9.
I mention this only to remind you Mississippi State can produce a pretty solid quarterback not named Dak.
There's no question the Bulldogs' level of play rose over the last two years, when Prescott became ingrained as MSU starter. His ability to pick up tough yards on the ground while also passing efficiently was invaluable. But the product doesn't have to completely collapse in his absence.
I like where the current baseline is set. Granted, most of Nick Fitzgerald's action came against Northwestern State and Troy last year, but the simple fact that his rushing numbers were as efficient as Prescott's and his passing numbers were almost literally perfect was a reminder that there could be life after Dak.
We shouldn't overreact to small samples (just ask Auburn's Jeremy Johnson), and the fact that Fitzgerald hasn't run away with the starting job tells you he probably isn't as good as his sample suggested. But he's big, reasonably mobile, and throws a pretty accurate ball. If someone beats him out, that someone is probably pretty solid.
Also, MSU just added Wyatt Roberts, who started over Auburn's John Franklin III for most of the JUCO season chronicled in Netflix's Last Chance U.
Running Back
Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | 2016 Year |
Rivals | 247 Comp. | Rushes | Yards | TD | Yards/ Carry |
Hlt Yds/ Opp. |
Opp. Rate |
Fumbles | Fum. Lost |
Dak Prescott | QB | 131 | 780 | 10 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 40.5% | 9 | 4 | ||||
Brandon Holloway | RB | 5'8, 165 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8494 | 93 | 413 | 0 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 38.7% | 3 | 2 |
Ashton Shumpert | RB | 6'2, 218 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.9189 | 59 | 228 | 1 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 33.9% | 2 | 2 |
Aeris Williams | RB | 6'1, 217 | So. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.9016 | 40 | 206 | 3 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 47.5% | 1 | 1 |
Nick Fitzgerald | QB | 6'5, 230 | So. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.8133 | 23 | 127 | 3 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 43.5% | 1 | 0 |
Dontavian Lee | RB | 6'1, 230 | So. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.8358 | 22 | 137 | 0 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 40.9% | 0 | 0 |
Malik Dear | WR | 5'9, 220 | So. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.9100 | 11 | 110 | 1 | 10.0 | 14.9 | 45.5% | 0 | 0 |
Gabe Myles | WR | 6'0, 195 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8532 | 7 | 11 | 1 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 28.6% | 0 | 0 |
Nick Gibson | RB | 5'11, 204 | RSFr. | 4 stars (5.9) | 0.8914 | ||||||||
Alec Murphy | RB | 6'0, 230 | RSFr. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8581 |
Receiving Corps
Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | 2016 Year |
Rivals | 247 Comp. | Targets | Catches | Yards | Catch Rate | Target Rate |
Yds/ Target |
%SD | Success Rate |
IsoPPP |
Fred Ross | SLOT | 6'2, 205 | Sr. | 4 stars (5.8) | 0.9187 | 121 | 88 | 1007 | 72.7% | 24.8% | 8.3 | 64.5% | 54.5% | 1.40 |
De'Runnya Wilson | WR | 98 | 60 | 918 | 61.2% | 20.1% | 9.4 | 63.3% | 58.2% | 1.52 | ||||
Brandon Holloway | RB | 5'8, 165 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8494 | 43 | 33 | 396 | 76.7% | 8.8% | 9.2 | 62.8% | 41.9% | 2.14 |
Fred Brown | WR | 42 | 27 | 412 | 64.3% | 8.6% | 9.8 | 69.0% | 59.5% | 1.50 | ||||
Malik Dear | SLOT | 5'9, 220 | So. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.9100 | 31 | 23 | 226 | 74.2% | 6.4% | 7.3 | 83.9% | 64.5% | 1.04 |
Donald Gray | WR | 5'10, 204 | Jr. | 4 stars (5.9) | 0.9131 | 30 | 21 | 386 | 70.0% | 6.2% | 12.9 | 63.3% | 56.7% | 2.14 |
Gus Walley | TE | 25 | 19 | 146 | 76.0% | 5.1% | 5.8 | 80.0% | 48.0% | 1.19 | ||||
Ashton Shumpert | RB | 6'2, 218 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.9189 | 21 | 13 | 109 | 61.9% | 4.3% | 5.2 | 52.4% | 33.3% | 1.42 |
Gabe Myles | WR | 6'0, 195 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8532 | 19 | 12 | 175 | 63.2% | 3.9% | 9.2 | 57.9% | 31.6% | 2.98 |
Darrion Hutcherson | TE | 19 | 16 | 164 | 84.2% | 3.9% | 8.6 | 73.7% | 52.6% | 1.57 | ||||
Joe Morrow | WR | 13 | 6 | 100 | 46.2% | 2.7% | 7.7 | 61.5% | 46.2% | 1.58 | ||||
Aeris Williams | RB | 6'1, 217 | So. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.9016 | 8 | 6 | 18 | 75.0% | 1.6% | 2.3 | 50.0% | 25.0% | 0.72 |
Justin Johnson | TE | 6'3, 239 | So. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8550 | 7 | 5 | 41 | 71.4% | 1.4% | 5.9 | 71.4% | 71.4% | 0.80 |
Jesse Jackson | WR | 6'2, 211 | So. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8867 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.0 | 66.7% | 0.0% | 0.00 |
Deddrick Thomas | WR | 5'9, 188 | RSFr. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8708 | |||||||||
Keith Mixon | SLOT | 5'8, 175 | RSFr. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8593 | |||||||||
Jonnas Spivey | WR | 6'0, 200 | RSFr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8489 | |||||||||
Farrod Green | TE | 6'3, 232 | RSFr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.8176 | |||||||||
Jordan Thomas | TE | 6'5, 295 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8626 | |||||||||
Reginald Todd | WR | 6'4, 192 | Fr. | NR | 0.9100 | |||||||||
Jamal Couch | WR | 6'4, 223 | Fr. | 4 stars (5.8) | 0.8863 | |||||||||
Dontea Jones | TE | 6'4, 254 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8641 |
4. Efficiency options are a new QB's best friend
The run game stopped producing quite as many big plays when running back Josh Robinson and three starting linemen departed. But the efficiency was still decent with little Brandon Holloway and big Ashton Shumpert and Aeris Williams splitting carries. Meanwhile, almost no team was able to more efficiently lean on its slot receivers than MSU; Fred Ross had a wonderful 55 percent success rate, and backup Malik Dear (65 percent) exceeded even that in limited chances.
If you've got running backs who can consistently gain four or five yards (Holloway also averaged 9.2 yards per target), and if you've got slot receivers who can consistently gain six to eight, you're going to be able to prevent a new quarterback from facing too many second- or third-and-long situations. That's very good.
Granted, you also want big plays so that you don't have to operate mistake-free for eight to 10 snaps at a time to score points. And unless a receiver like Donald Gray or Gabe Myles successfully takes on a larger role, I'm not sure who will provide those. But efficiency is step one.
Offensive Line
Category | Adj. Line Yds |
Std. Downs LY/carry |
Pass. Downs LY/carry |
Opp. Rate |
Power Success Rate |
Stuff Rate |
Adj. Sack Rate |
Std. Downs Sack Rt. |
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. |
Team | 111.9 | 2.91 | 3.44 | 40.4% | 71.4% | 20.2% | 104.4 | 5.6% | 7.4% |
Rank | 17 | 62 | 45 | 45 | 35 | 83 | 56 | 78 | 64 |
Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | 2016 Year |
Rivals | 247 Comp. | 2015 Starts | Career Starts | Honors/Notes |
Justin Malone | LG | 13 | 29 | |||||
Justin Senior | RT | 6'5, 310 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8130 | 12 | 26 | |
Devon Desper | RG | 6'4, 305 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8694 | 13 | 15 | |
Jamaal Clayborn | C | 6'4, 315 | Sr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.8342 | 12 | 12 | |
Rufus Warren | LT | 11 | 11 | |||||
Elgton Jenkins | LT | 6'4, 305 | So. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.8306 | 3 | 3 | |
Deion Calhoun | LG | 6'3, 308 | So. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.8106 | 1 | 1 | |
Jocquell Johnson | C | 6'4, 301 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8503 | 0 | 0 | |
Damien Robinson | RG | 0 | 0 | |||||
Cole Carter | RT | 0 | 0 | |||||
Martinas Rankin | LT | 6'5, 307 | Jr. | 4 stars (5.8) | 0.9125 | 0 | 0 | |
Darryl Williams | RG | 6'2, 303 | RSFr. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8758 | |||
Harrison Moon | C | 6'4, 290 | RSFr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8535 | |||
Michael Story | LG | 6'4, 295 | RSFr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.8324 | |||
Stewart Reese | RG | 6'5, 340 | Fr. | 4 stars (5.8) | 0.8793 | |||
Greg Eiland | LT | 6'7, 304 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8529 | |||
Dareuan Parker | LG | 6'4, 325 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8249 |
5. A line you can probably lean on
The MSU offensive line wasn't quite as successful as 2014's, which makes sense considering the Bulldogs lost two 40-game starters and an all-conference guard. The leaks were a bit more prevalent in run blocking, but MSU was still solid in short yardage. (Having Prescott probably didn't hurt those numbers.)
Two more starters are gone this year, but the experience level appears solid, with three senior starters returning, along with two sophomores who saw spot starts, a four-star JUCO redshirt (Martinas Rankin), and a veteran reserve (Jocquell Johnson). Unless the new QB is far less of a short-yardage presence than Prescott, the line should be fine. It's all about big plays with this offense -- the efficiency should be there.
Defense
FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE | ||||||
Raw Category | Rk | Opp. Adj. Category | Rk | |||
EXPLOSIVENESS | IsoPPP | 1.19 | 29 | IsoPPP+ | 110.2 | 37 |
EFFICIENCY | Succ. Rt. | 42.6% | 77 | Succ. Rt. + | 101.8 | 58 |
FIELD POSITION | Off. Avg. FP | 29.6 | 74 | Off. FP+ | 29.9 | 64 |
FINISHING DRIVES | Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity | 4.2 | 45 | Redzone S&P+ | 107.7 | 35 |
TURNOVERS | EXPECTED | 20.3 | ACTUAL | 14.0 | -6.3 |
Category | Yards/ Game Rk |
S&P+ Rk | Success Rt. Rk |
PPP+ Rk |
OVERALL | 56 | 45 | 58 | 37 |
RUSHING | 70 | 50 | 53 | 44 |
PASSING | 57 | 43 | 68 | 36 |
Standard Downs | 55 | 77 | 41 | |
Passing Downs | 23 | 20 | 27 |
Q1 Rk | 37 | 1st Down Rk | 42 |
Q2 Rk | 49 | 2nd Down Rk | 29 |
Q3 Rk | 50 | 3rd Down Rk | 36 |
Q4 Rk | 48 |
6. A Peter Sirmon defense
As with his first stint in Starkville (2010), Diaz served one year as Mullen's coordinator before taking on another gig.
He wasn't quite as successful the second time -- despite decent havoc numbers, the Bulldogs weren't as efficient as they needed to be. MSU stiffened in short-yardage situations and invaded the backfield a decent amount, but opponents still gained at least five yards in 42 percent of their carries (103rd in FBS). Meanwhile, the secondary allowed a 61 percent completion rate; take out the Missouri and NC State games, and that rises to 63 percent.
MSU was still strong on passing downs but struggled to force them. And now Mullen brings in a coach from a defense that forced passing downs well but let opponents off the hook.
USC's 2015 defense ranked 14th in Standard Downs Success Rate+ but only 39th on passing downs; the Trojans didn't have quite enough disruptive pieces up front, and a young secondary suffered too many glitches to play at a level commensurate with its recruiting rankings. Peter Sirmon was Justin Wilcox's linebackers coach on that defense. He served under Wilcox at Tennessee, Washington, and USC, and he also served as recruiting coordinator at those last two stops. One assumes he's being brought in as much for recruiting as for his proven defensive prowess, but he could still succeed as coordinator.
Wilcox tends to lean on a 3-4 defense, but Sirmon seems to be preaching flexibility. (Diaz did the same.) His "VIPER" position will serve as a defensive end/outside linebacker hybrid.
Defensive Line
Category | Adj. Line Yds |
Std. Downs LY/carry |
Pass. Downs LY/carry |
Opp. Rate |
Power Success Rate |
Stuff Rate |
Adj. Sack Rate |
Std. Downs Sack Rt. |
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. |
Team | 108 | 2.86 | 2.82 | 41.9% | 56.0% | 22.4% | 116.4 | 6.7% | 7.0% |
Rank | 39 | 64 | 33 | 103 | 18 | 36 | 38 | 18 | 74 |
Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | 2016 Year |
Rivals | 247 Comp. | GP | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
A.J. Jefferson | DE | 6'3, 280 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8874 | 13 | 37.0 | 4.7% | 13.5 | 5.0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Chris Jones | NG | 13 | 30.0 | 3.8% | 7.5 | 2.5 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | ||||
Ryan Brown | DE | 12 | 26.0 | 3.3% | 8.0 | 2.5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | ||||
Johnathan Calvin | DE | 6'3, 272 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8656 | 13 | 19.5 | 2.5% | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Nick James | NG | 6'5, 320 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.9246 | 13 | 17.5 | 2.2% | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Nelson Adams | NG | 6'3, 305 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8547 | 13 | 15.5 | 2.0% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Will Coleman | DE | 6'5, 250 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8610 | 13 | 11.0 | 1.4% | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Torrey Dale | DE | 6'6, 277 | Sr. | NR | 0.8376 | 13 | 7.5 | 1.0% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cory Thomas | DE | 6'5, 313 | So. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8631 | 8 | 2.0 | 0.3% | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Braxton Hoyett | NG | 6'3, 305 | So. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.7985 | 7 | 2.0 | 0.3% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fletcher Adams | DE | 6'2, 274 | RSFr. | 4 stars (5.8) | 0.9234 | |||||||||
Tre Brown | NG | 6'4, 309 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8544 | |||||||||
Jeffery Simmons | DE | 6'4, 310 | Fr. | 5 stars (6.1) | 0.9862 | |||||||||
Kobe Jones | DL | 6'3, 278 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.9026 |
Linebackers
Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | 2016 Year |
Rivals | 247 Comp. | GP | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
Richie Brown | ILB | 6'2, 240 | Sr. | 4 stars (5.8) | 0.8865 | 13 | 80.0 | 10.2% | 13.0 | 6.5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Beniquez Brown | ILB | 13 | 73.5 | 9.4% | 11.0 | 4.0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | ||||
J.T. Gray | OLB | 6'0, 197 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8590 | 13 | 46.0 | 5.9% | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Gerri Green | VIPER | 6'4, 243 | So. | 4 stars (5.8) | 0.8981 | 13 | 34.5 | 4.4% | 2.5 | 0.0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Zach Jackson | LB | 11 | 32.0 | 4.1% | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | ||||
DeAndre Ward | OLB | 6'1, 219 | Sr. | NR | NR | 13 | 11.0 | 1.4% | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Dezmond Harris | LB | 6'4, 236 | Jr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.8144 | 7 | 6.0 | 0.8% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Kelan Chairs | ILB | 6'0, 218 | Jr. | NR | NR | 12 | 2.0 | 0.3% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Traver Jung | OLB | 6'3, 229 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8762 | |||||||||
Leo Lewis | ILB | 6'2, 230 | RSFr. | 4 stars (6.0) | 0.9674 | |||||||||
Tim Washington | ILB | 6'3, 225 | RSFr. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8838 | |||||||||
Anfernee Mullins | VIPER | 6'3, 261 | RSFr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8426 | |||||||||
Marquiss Spencer | VIPER | 6'3, 270 | Fr. | 4 stars (5.9) | 0.9047 | |||||||||
Erroll Thompson | LB | 6'1, 262 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8784 |
7. Few boring plays
At first glance, Sirmon should have some attacking talent up front.
Jefferson is exciting, and he's big enough to withstand the role of a 3-4 defensive end when asked to do so. Linebacker Richie Brown is a shit-stirrer on the interior. Ends Johnathan Calvin and Will Coleman could thrive given more opportunities, big sophomore Cory Thomas barely saw the field but still made a sack and interception, JUCO transfer Tre Brown adds another big body to the mix, and youngsters Fletcher Adams, Kobe Jones, and (fair or not) Simmons are all big and athletic enough to contribute.
Meanwhile, sophomore Gerri Green could take well to the VIPER position -- he's the size of a 4-3 defensive end (6'4, 243), and he proved dangerous in both run support (2.5 non-sack tackles for loss) and pass coverage (three passes defensed).
These are all good things! But attacking wasn't really the problem for MSU last year. The problem was when the attacks didn't hit their mark. Solid safety play helped to prevent too many serious gashes, but if the Bulldogs didn't make a stop behind the line, they were giving up five or 10 yards. The Wilcox USC defense wasn't quite as aggressive as MSU's, but it will be interesting to see how Sirmon balances this risk-reward exchange.
Secondary
Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | 2016 Year |
Rivals | 247 Comp. | GP | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
Kivon Coman | FS | 6'3, 205 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8317 | 13 | 57.5 | 7.3% | 4 | 0.5 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
Brandon Bryant | SS | 6'0, 215 | So. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8640 | 13 | 54.5 | 6.9% | 2 | 1.5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Tolando Cleveland | CB | 6'0, 190 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8268 | 13 | 34.5 | 4.4% | 4.5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Taveze Calhoun | CB | 12 | 31.5 | 4.0% | 6.5 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | ||||
Deontay Evans | FS | 13 | 26.5 | 3.4% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | ||||
Will Redmond | CB | 7 | 21.5 | 2.7% | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | ||||
Jamoral Graham | CB | 5'10, 183 | Jr. | 4 stars (5.8) | 0.9148 | 12 | 19.5 | 2.5% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Jamal Peters | FS | 6'2, 217 | So. | 4 stars (5.9) | 0.9720 | 12 | 18.5 | 2.4% | 1.5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Kendrick Market | SS | 4 | 18.0 | 2.3% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
Mark McLaurin | SS | 6'2, 218 | So. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8598 | 12 | 15.0 | 1.9% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Cedric Jiles | CB | 5'10, 186 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8559 | 12 | 11.5 | 1.5% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Chris Rayford | CB | 6'0, 199 | So. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.8216 | 13 | 4.0 | 0.5% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Maurice Smitherman | FS | 5'9, 185 | RSFr. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8807 | |||||||||
Chris Stamps | CB | 6'0, 179 | RSFr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8670 | |||||||||
Lashard Durr | CB | 5'11, 197 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8626 | |||||||||
C.J. Morgan | SS | 6'0, 197 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8721 | |||||||||
Korey Charles | DB | 5'10, 175 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8696 |
8. Another SEC defense with fantastic safeties
The SEC is absolutely stocked at safety. It's also a strength for MSU, where senior Kivon Coman and sophomore Brandon Bryant combined for six TFLs and 14 passes defensed last year and fellow sophomores Jamal Peters (a former blue-chipper) and Mark McLaurin forced their way onto the field as well.
Sirmon appears to appreciate simplicity in the back, but if or when he decides to go with a nickel look, he should easily have the guys to pull it off. And all three of the sophomore safeties are big enough to play a bit of a linebacker role if need be.
Cornerback is a bit more of a question mark. Tolando Cleveland and Jamoral Graham are back, as is senior reserve Cedric Jiles (who broke up four passes in limited chances), so pure experience isn't an issue. But MSU must replace maybe its two best play-makers at the position (Taveze Calhoun, Will Redmond), and a lot could be expected of JUCO transfer Lashard Durr. Still, it would be surprising if MSU didn't improve on last year's No. 43 ranking in Passing S&P+.
Special Teams
Punter | Ht, Wt | 2016 Year |
Punts | Avg | TB | FC | I20 | FC/I20 Ratio |
Logan Cooke | 6'5, 224 | Jr. | 44 | 42.2 | 7 | 20 | 15 | 79.5% |
Devon Bell | 9 | 41.1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 66.7% |
Kicker | Ht, Wt | 2016 Year |
Kickoffs | Avg | TB | OOB | TB% |
Devon Bell | 80 | 62.1 | 33 | 2 | 41.3% | ||
Logan Cooke | 6'5, 224 | Jr. | 4 | 49.3 | 2 | 0 | 50.0% |
Place-Kicker | Ht, Wt | 2016 Year |
PAT | FG (0-39) |
Pct | FG (40+) |
Pct |
Westin Graves | 6'0, 163 | Jr. | 52-54 | 12-13 | 92.3% | 3-5 | 60.0% |
Devon Bell | 2-2 | 0-0 | N/A | 0-1 | 0.0% |
Returner | Pos. | Ht, Wt | 2016 Year |
Returns | Avg. | TD |
Brandon Holloway | KR | 5'8, 165 | Sr. | 24 | 23.6 | 1 |
Malik Dear | KR | 5'9, 220 | So. | 5 | 19.8 | 0 |
Fred Ross | PR | 6'2, 205 | Sr. | 15 | 10.5 | 1 |
Category | Rk |
Special Teams S&P+ | 24 |
Field Goal Efficiency | 39 |
Punt Return Success Rate | 51 |
Kick Return Success Rate | 58 |
Punt Success Rate | 65 |
Kickoff Success Rate | 38 |
9. Big legs
Most of the components of a solid special teams unit return. Logan Cooke's punts were high and mostly unreturnable (opponents managed only 10 attempted returns in 2015, seventh-fewest in the country), and Westin Graves was a reliable kicker. Meanwhile, returns were a bit all-or-nothing, but MSU scored a touchdown via both kick and punt return. You'll take that.
2016 Schedule & Projection Factors
2016 Schedule |
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Date | Opponent | Proj. S&P+ Rk | Proj. Margin | Win Probability |
3-Sep | South Alabama | 115 | 29.9 | 96% |
10-Sep | South Carolina | 63 | 14.3 | 80% |
17-Sep | at LSU | 2 | -14.3 | 20% |
24-Sep | at Massachusetts | 127 | 27.2 | 94% |
8-Oct | Auburn | 24 | 4.6 | 60% |
14-Oct | at BYU | 35 | 1.7 | 54% |
22-Oct | at Kentucky | 83 | 12.5 | 76% |
29-Oct | Samford | NR | 36.7 | 98% |
5-Nov | Texas A&M | 25 | 4.6 | 61% |
12-Nov | at Alabama | 1 | -16.7 | 17% |
19-Nov | Arkansas | 17 | 1.9 | 54% |
26-Nov | at Ole Miss | 7 | -8.8 | 30% |
Projected wins: 7.4 |
Five-Year F/+ Rk | 22.9% (23) |
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk | 23 / 27 |
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* | -4 / -6.6 |
2015 TO Luck/Game | +1.0 |
Returning Production (Off. / Def.) | 56% (44%, 69%) |
2015 Second-order wins (difference) | 8.4 (0.6) |
For MSU fans
10. October is enormous
Mississippi State's over-under win total was set at 6.5 back in May, but S&P+ seems to like the Bulldogs' chances of exceeding that. With September games against South Alabama, South Carolina, and UMass, the Bulldogs are a good bet to start 3-1 at worst; that would set up a pair of hinge games.
Per S&P+, MSU will have a 32 percent chance of beating both Auburn and BYU, an 18 percent chance of losing both games, and a 50-50 shot at splitting the pair. Win both, and there's a chance MSU heads into November at 7-1, again bordering on a top-10 poll ranking, even with a downward turn at QB.
The finish will be rough again (S&P+ says there's a 75 percent chance MSU goes either 1-2 or 0-3 in the last three games), but what a statement it would be for MSU to once again make noise and post a comfortable win total a year after Prescott.