The Arkansas Razorbacks are again big, nasty, and in danger of a rough start

Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year's team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year's roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

1. Timing is tricky

It's hard to get all your ducks in a row, especially when you're not signing elite recruiting classes. You need some diamonds in the rough to thrive at the same time on both sides of the ball. You need your classes balanced so that one unit isn't rebuilding as another peaks. You need to peak in-season as the biggest games arrive.

In three years as Arkansas' head coach, Bret Bielema has cleared quite a few hurdles. He's won big road games, established a physical identity,  clashed with colleagues, and provided quotes both maddening and wonderful. He has made an impact in all ways good and bad.

But he has yet to master the art of timing.

Eight programs have finished in the S&P+ top 15 in each of the last two years. But while Ohio State, Alabama, and Michigan State have combined for only nine losses in this span, and Baylor, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, and Stanford have averaged a 20-7 record, Arkansas is 15-11.

The Razorbacks began 2014 with a 3-4 record before hitting fifth gear, then began 2015 2-4 before doing the same. They have been one of the best November teams in the country but have sabotaged their goals with shaky Septembers.

2015 saw them solve one problem just in time to watch another emerge. A team with Arkansas' 2015 offense and 2014 defense would have had an S&P+ rating of plus-28.1; that would have ranked second in the country last year. But just as the offense hit its cruising altitude, the defense sputtered.

So for the second straight year, the Razorbacks had to settle for knowing they were very good, without the record to prove it.

Residing in the toughest division in college football, while playing solid non-conference slates, hasn't done them any favors. It might be nice to know you are taking on the best, but winning more than eight games is nice, too. In two years, the Hogs have played 12 games against teams that finished with at least nine wins. That they've won five is proof of their caliber. But that means they've still lost seven others.

So does this cycle ever end? In the most competitive environment, can Bielema ever break through with the type of win totals he managed at Wisconsin (12 wins in 2006, 11 in 2010 and 2011)? And if so, might it happen in 2016?

In a way, the answer depends on assumptions. In terms of experience, perhaps the biggest questions the Razorbacks have to answer this year are at running back and on the offensive line.

Arkansas' identity is premised around bruising running backs and a meaty offensive line; if we assume a Bielema team will have quality options in these two areas, then everything else could fall into place. Arkansas will be starting a new quarterback, too, but returns its top four wide receivers and a big-play tight end. And the defense has all of the experience it didn't have a year ago -- six of the top seven tacklers on the line, every linebacker, and eight of the top nine defensive backs return.

Experience alone doesn't dictate quality, but it helps, and Arkansas will have plenty of it. But the running game drives the bus, and if there is any major drop-off there, then that could gum everything up. At the least, it could lead to another slow star.

If there's a massive breakthrough coming, it probably won't happen in 2016. This might be another "clear quality and five losses" season.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 8-5 | Adj. Record: 11-2 | Final F/+ Rk: 11 | Final S&P+ Rk: 15
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
5-Sep	UTEP	125	48-13	W	98%	100%	+11.0	+2.0
12-Sep	vs. Toledo	20	12-16	L	77%	66%	-20.4	-25.5
19-Sep	Texas Tech	60	24-35	L	38%	17%	-27.0	-22.5
26-Sep	vs. Texas A&M	34	21-28	L	54%	35%	-3.2	+0.5
3-Oct	at Tennessee	18	24-20	W	93%	97%	+7.7	+10.5
10-Oct	at Alabama	1	14-27	L	49%	7%	+8.3	+4.0
24-Oct	Auburn	33	54-46	W	79%	86%	-6.3	+2.0
31-Oct	UT-Martin	N/A	63-28	W	86%	100%	-4.3
7-Nov	at Ole Miss	5	53-52	W	56%	17%	+12.5	+12.0
14-Nov	at LSU	10	31-14	W	94%	99%	+29.7	+24.5
21-Nov	Mississippi State	16	50-51	L	59%	37%	-4.5	-4.5
27-Nov	Missouri	75	28-3	W	96%	100%	+8.1	+11.0
2-Jan	vs. Kansas State	81	45-23	W	88%	99%	+5.8	+11.0

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	43.7	2	28.4	67
Points Per Game	35.9	27	27.4	68

2. If Bielema ever fixes the shaky starts...

In 2014, Arkansas' average percentile performance was 71 percent for the first seven games of the year and an incredible 91 percent for the final six. Last fall, the Razorbacks didn't quite hit the same elite level late in the year, but they came awfully close. And they did so after starting even more slowly.

• First 4 games:
  Record: 1-3 | Average percentile performance: 67% (~top 45) | Yards per play: Hogs 7.0, Opp 6.5 (+0.5)
• Next 5 games:
  Record: 4-1 | Average percentile performance: 73% (~top 35) | Yards per play: Hogs 6.7, Opp 6.2 (+0.5)
• Last 4 games:
  Record: 3-1 | Average percentile performance: 84% (~top 20) | Yards per play: Hogs 6.8, Opp 5.5 (+1.3)

Now, these starts are only so shaky. Arkansas outgained Toledo by nearly 200 yards in one of the flukier losses of the season, and while the performances against Texas Tech and Texas A&M left something to be desired, the fourth loss in the 2-4 start was by 13 points in Tuscaloosa (minimal shame in that). And it followed a win in Knoxville.

Still, for the second straight year, Arkansas was far better late than early. That would suffice if the schedule was harder late than early; instead, it's hard throughout. And with September games away from home against TCU and Texas A&M, nothing changes in 2016.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.28	59	IsoPPP+	136.2	3
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	51.7%	2	Succ. Rt. +	134.2	1
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	28.0	29	Def. FP+	26.6	11
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	5.3	5	Redzone S&P+	134.5	1
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	18.0		ACTUAL	11	-7.0

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	29	1	1	3
RUSHING	34	5	1	17
PASSING	32	1	3	1
Standard Downs		6	4	6
Passing Downs		1	1	3

Q1 Rk	2	1st Down Rk	2
Q2 Rk	1	2nd Down Rk	3
Q3 Rk	5	3rd Down Rk	7
Q4 Rk	18

3. They added a deep ball

The 2014 Arkansas offense was rugged, physical, and mostly effective. But the Razorbacks were either unable or unwilling (or both) to stretch the field with the deep ball. That meant opponents could keep most of their defenders near the line of scrimmage, which rendered the run game relatively inefficient.

This also allowed opponents to adapt as a game wore on; Arkansas ranked third in first quarter S&P+ and 12th in Q2 but plummeted to 60th in Q3 and 82nd in Q4. To say the least, that can make a difference in close games against good teams, and  Arkansas lost in overtime to Texas A&M, by one to Alabama, and by seven to Mississippi State and Missouri. (For more evidence of this, see 2015 Tennessee.)

The offense was good, but as adaptable and solid as coordinator Jim Chaney can be, when he left for Pittsburgh, he left successor Dan Enos with a clear way to improve things.

To his everlasting credit, Enos did just that. Arkansas completed 24 passes of 30-plus yards in 2015 (27th in the country), up from 10 (114th) the year before. In 2014, the top six wideouts combined to average 12.8 yards per catch; in 2015, that improved to 15.3.

That made all the difference in the world. Despite losing 2014 leading rusher Jonathan Williams to injury in the offseason, then losing leading receiver Keon Hatcher two games into the year, Arkansas improved from 15th to second in Off. S&P+. Meanwhile, the quarterback in charge of the No. 1 Passing S&P+ offense wasn't Deshaun Watson or Jared Goff or Baker Mayfield -- it was Brandon Allen.

If you are good enough at establishing an identity, you probably know how defenses are going to try to defend you. That gives you a chance to counter punch. Under Enos, Arkansas both maintained a run-heavy identity and mastered every counter. (Enos also used end arounds and jet sweeps for misdirection on occasion -- three wideouts combined to carry 15 times for 165 yards.) And even with a new quarterback, the Hogs will do so again in 2016 ... if they can establish the run well enough.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2016 Year

Rivals

247 Comp.

Comp

Att

Yards

TD

INT

Comp Rate

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/ Att.

Brandon Allen

244

370

3440

30

8

65.9%

14

3.6%

8.7

Austin Allen

6'1, 209

Jr.

3 stars (5.7)

0.8950

1

3

35

1

0

33.3%

0

0.0%

11.7

Rafe Peavey

6'1, 203

So.

4 stars (5.8)

0.8844

Ricky Town (USC)

6'3, 214

RSFr.

4 stars (5.9)

0.9602

Ty Storey

6'2, 212

RSFr.

4 stars (5.9)

0.9088

Cole Kelley

6'7, 258

Fr.

3 stars (5.5)

0.8485

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Alex Collins	RB					271	1577	20	5.8	5.5	43.5%	5	2
Kody Walker	RB	6'2, 240	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8568	90	394	6	4.4	3.2	40.0%	2	0
Rawleigh Williams III	RB	5'10, 223	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8659	56	254	1	4.5	5.1	28.6%	0	0
Brandon Allen	QB					42	195	1	4.6	2.9	45.2%	4	1
Jared Cornelius	WR	5'11, 212	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8441	7	112	2	16.0	15.3	71.4%	0	0
Denzell Evans	RB					6	48	0	8.0	8.9	50.0%	0	0
Damon Mitchell	RB	6'2, 215	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8333	4	29	0	7.3	2.8	75.0%	0	0
Dominique Reed	WR	6'3, 175	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8635	4	24	1	6.0	2.2	75.0%	0	0
Drew Morgan	WR	6'0, 193	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7891	4	20	0	5.0	2.3	50.0%	1	0
Juan Day	RB	6'1, 214	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8528	4	17	0	4.3	1.9	50.0%	0	0
Chris Jones	FB	5'11, 249	Jr.	NR	NR
Devwah Whaley	RB	5'11, 216	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9523
T.J. Hammonds	RB	5'10, 197	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9072
Hayden Johnson	FB	6'3, 248	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8380

4. Either/or

Williams' injury gave Alex Collins a chance to become the bellcow, and he thrived. Averaging more than 20 carries per game, he improved both his efficiency and explosiveness numbers, and while he still fumbled a bit too much, his fumble rate decreased, too.

He also left, drafted in the fifth round by the Seattle Seahawks. And it appears three backs could be in line to split carries this fall: sophomore Rawleigh Williams III, sixth-year senior (and former fullback) Kody Walker, and four-star freshman Devwah Whaley.

Walker was a best-of-all-worlds back with good size and speed. Williams proved reasonably explosive in the open field but was dreadfully inefficient as a freshman. Walker was nearly as efficient as Collins but showed no top-end speed. Whaley might have both but is just a few months removed from prom.

Perhaps Williams will prove well-rounded with more experience, or perhaps Whaley really is ready from day one. (It should be mentioned that Walker has dropped about 15 pounds since last year, which could give him an extra boost in the speed department.) But this could turn into a situation where Enos must make pretty clear, situational choices -- Walker in short yardage, for instance. That can make the offense a bit more predictable.

The run game is where the other major question mark emerges. Enormous all-conference tackles Dan Skipper returns, as does starting guard Frank Ragnow (who appears to have moved to center). But the other three starters are gone, and since Arkansas has been mostly injury-free up front, no one else has really factored into the first-string with any regularity.

There's still plenty of size and talent up front. Among the 10 non-starters listed below, five were four-star recruits per the 247Sports Composite, and four are listed at 318 pounds or (much) larger. And Bielema inked two JUCO transfer to make sure this unit wasn't too green.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Drew Morgan	WR	6'0, 193	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7891	80	63	843	78.8%	22.3%	10.5	58.8%	66.2%	1.55
Keon Hatcher (2014)	WR	6'2, 207	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9017	78	43	558	55.1%	22.5%	7.2	44.9%	52.2%	1.51
Hunter Henry	TE					74	52	799	70.3%	20.7%	10.8	50.0%	58.1%	1.77
Dominique Reed	WR	6'3, 175	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8635	47	28	535	59.6%	13.1%	11.4	51.1%	46.8%	2.36
Jeremy Sprinkle	TE	6'6, 256	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8677	45	28	408	62.2%	12.6%	9.1	73.3%	53.3%	1.61
Jared Cornelius	WR	5'11, 212	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8441	36	24	393	66.7%	10.1%	10.9	55.6%	61.1%	1.78
Alex Collins	RB					14	13	64	92.9%	3.9%	4.6	50.0%	28.6%	1.54
JoJo Robinson	WR					10	6	53	60.0%	2.8%	5.3	60.0%	40.0%	1.07
Damon Mitchell	RB	6'2, 215	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8333	7	6	84	85.7%	2.0%	12.0	85.7%	57.1%	2.21
Kendrick Edwards	WR					6	4	51	66.7%	1.7%	8.5	83.3%	50.0%	1.48
Cody Hollister	WR	6'4, 209	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8069	5	4	65	80.0%	1.4%	13.0	60.0%	80.0%	1.30
Deon Stewart	WR	5'11, 164	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8545	3	1	4	33.3%	0.8%	1.3	66.7%	0.0%	0.00
Anthony Antwine	TE	6'4, 222	Jr.	NR	NR
Cheyenne O'Grady	TE	6'4, 251	RSFr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9172
Will Gragg	TE	6'4, 254	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9160
Austin Cantrell	TE	6'4, 269	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8647
La'Michael Pettway	WR	6'2, 216	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8616
Jordan Jones	WR	6'1, 184	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8666
D'Vone McClure	WR	6'2, 219	Fr.	NR	NR

5. If the run works, the pass will work

I shouldn't understate the importance of the quarterback change, but I think the passing game should be fine if the run game is doing its part.

Veteran Austin Allen (Brandon's brother) has been around for a while and has by most accounts had an excellent offseason. And he basically has two No. 1 receivers returning: Keon Hatcher was Brandon's security blanket before suffering a foot injury last year, and Drew Morgan exploded in Hatcher's absence. They're both back, and the next two wideouts on the list (Dominique Reed and Jared Cornelius) combined for 928 receiving yards at a whopping 11.2 yards per target in 2015.

Plus, while the prolific Hunter Henry is gone, that just means more opportunities for Jeremy Sprinkle, who emerged as a major target over the second half of the season; after catching 13 passes over the first eight games, he caught 14 for 167 in the last five games. And there are quite a few talented young tight ends on the roster to back Sprinkle up.

This might be putting too much faith in the younger Austin, but the potential quality of the passing game might give Enos a chance to lean on the pass while the run game gets its sea legs.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	121.5	3.36	3.89	42.1%	68.3%	17.1%	170.0	1.9%	6.2%
Rank	6	7	10	27	48	27	18	11	43

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Sebastian Tretola	LG					13	24	2015 All-American, 2015 1st All-SEC
Dan Skipper	LT	6'10, 319	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8625	13	34	2015 2nd All-SEC
Denver Kirkland	LT					13	34
Mitch Smothers	C					13	34
Frank Ragnow	C	6'5, 319	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8913	13	13
Johnny Gibson	LT	6'4, 344	So.	NR	NR	0	0
Josh Allen	LG					0	0
Zach Rogers	RG	6'1, 306	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8863	0	0
Marcus Danenhauer	RG					0	0
Jake Raulerson	RT	6'4, 301	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9432	0	0
Brian Wallace	RT	6'6, 335	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9574	0	0
Hjalte Froholdt	LG	6'4, 318	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9339	0	0
Jalen Merrick	RT	6'4, 327	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9057
Colton Jackson	LT	6'6, 300	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8637
Paul Ramirez	RG	6'6, 299	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8517
Deion Malone	LG	6'3, 296	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8337
Jake Heinrich	OL	6'4, 295	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8954

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.21	41	IsoPPP+	92.3	93
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	47.9%	119	Succ. Rt. +	91.1	99
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	33.0	12	Off. FP+	33.6	9
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.8	104	Redzone S&P+	90.3	107
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	17.8		ACTUAL	18.0	+0.2

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	58	95	99	93
RUSHING	12	59	63	42
PASSING	117	115	118	110
Standard Downs		106	94	104
Passing Downs		85	105	67

Q1 Rk	80	1st Down Rk	87
Q2 Rk	106	2nd Down Rk	120
Q3 Rk	93	3rd Down Rk	24
Q4 Rk	64

6. Bouncing back from a collapse

While the Southwest Conference became known mostly for offensive innovation and scoreboard fireworks, Arkansas was based on defense during Frank Broyles' long run.

But the identity the Hogs have established over the last decade has been a little bit different.

In the last 10 years, Arkansas has ranked in the overall S&P+ top 20 six times; Houston Nutt, Bobby Petrino, and Bielema have utilized different styles but have put major offensive talent onto the field all the same.

The defense has been a constant drag on the Hogs' prospects. In this 10-year span, the Hogs have only three times ranked in the Def. S&P+ top 35. They surged to sixth in 2014 with a dynamic run front that featured end Trey Flowers, tackle Darius Philon, and linebacker Martrell Spaight, but all three left, and the 2015 defense simply couldn't match the same level of firepower.

Defensive coordinator Robb Smith had the same immediate impact in 2014 that Enos had in 2015, but it all fell apart last season. The Hogs fell from 11th in Rushing S&P+ to 59th and from 26th in Passing S&P+ to 115th. The Razorbacks were able to slow down limited offenses -- Tennessee managed just a 106.7 passer rating, Auburn 118.6, Missouri 51.7, and Kansas State 108.0. But good passing games wrecked shop. Texas A&M, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State combined to complete 83 of 113 passes (73 percent) for 1,234 yards, 10 touchdowns, and one interception. Passer rating: 192.6.

To the extent that inexperience was an issue last year, it won't be this fall. The front seven is loaded with mostly juniors and seniors, and the freshmen and sophomores that populated the secondary are now sophomores and juniors. Now we'll see if there's enough actual quality in the pipeline.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	112.5	2.79	2.98	38.4%	80.5%	21.4%	78.9	4.2%	4.4%
Rank	23	48	46	68	123	46	100	97	114

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jeremiah Ledbetter	DT	6'3, 280	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8919	13	39.5	5.9%	7.5	2.0	0	1	0	0
Deatrich Wise Jr.	DE	6'5, 271	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8785	13	24.0	3.6%	10.5	8.0	0	3	3	0
DeMarcus Hodge	DT					13	21.5	3.2%	8.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Tevin Beanum	DE	6'2, 284	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8206	13	20.5	3.1%	7.0	2.0	0	1	0	0
Taiwan Johnson	DT	6'2, 284	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8980	13	20.0	3.0%	5.0	1.5	0	2	0	1
JaMichael Winston	DE	6'4, 260	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8596	13	15.0	2.2%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Karl Roesler	DE	6'1, 256	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	13	9.5	1.4%	3.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Mitchell Loewen	DL					10	9.0	1.3%	1.5	1.5	0	0	0	0
Bijhon Jackson	DT	6'2, 335	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9622	12	5.0	0.7%	1.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Armon Watts	DT	6'5, 293	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8535	11	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Brandon Lewis	DT	6'4, 274	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8450
Daytrieon Dean	DT	6'3, 281	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8547
T.J. Smith	DT	6'3, 285	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8294
Michael Taylor II	DE	6'3, 245	So.	NR	NR
McTelvin Agim	DE	6'3, 289	Fr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9868
Austin Capps	DT	6'4, 309	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9133
Briston Guidry	DT	6'3, 294	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.8983
Jonathan Marshall	DT	6'4, 299	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8595

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Brooks Ellis	MLB	6'2, 245	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8682	13	73.5	11.0%	8.0	1.5	1	3	0	1
Dre Greenlaw	WLB	6'0, 226	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8522	13	70.5	10.5%	3.5	1.0	0	1	2	0
Josh Williams	SLB	6'1, 249	Sr.	NR	NR	5	10.5	1.6%	1.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Dwayne Eugene	WLB	6'1, 235	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8244	9	8.5	1.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Josh Harris	MLB	5'10, 239	So.	NR	NR	12	7.0	1.0%	1.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Khalia Hackett	SLB	6'2, 223	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8358	13	7.0	1.0%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kendrick Jackson	MLB	6'1, 255	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8398
Alexy Jean-Baptiste	LB	6'2, 231	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8564
De'Jon Harris	MLB	6'0, 255	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8547
Giovanni LaFrance	LB	6'1, 255	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8497

7. No push

The run front was a strength of the 2014 unit; Arkansas ranked fifth in Adj. Line Yards, 34th in power success rate, and ninth in stuff rate. In 2015, those rankings fell to 23rd, 123rd, and 46th, respectively. The Razorbacks were still reasonably invasive but were pushovers in short-yardage situations. Meanwhile, they basically had a one-man pass rush -- if Deatrich Wise Jr. wasn't getting to the quarterback, no one was.

In theory, there won't be any more short-yardage oomph in 2016. Perhaps enormous tackle Bijhon Jackson is ready to play a larger role, but the top two returning tackles, Jeremiah Ledbetter and Taiwan Johnson average just 282 pounds. They are quick and active but don't pack a lot of mass. But short yardage only matters if your opponents are creating third-and-2s instead of third-and-6s. The front seven is full of veterans and could indeed be supplemented by youngsters like Jackson and blue-chip end McTelvin Agim. If Arkansas can get back to make serious waves against the run on first down, short yardage won't matter as much.

Of course, you still have to stop the pass, too.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Rohan Gaines	SS					13	55.5	8.3%	1.5	0	1	1	0	0
Henré Toliver	CB	6'1, 185	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8700	13	49.0	7.3%	4	0	1	8	0	0
Josh Liddell	FS	6'1, 210	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8341	13	40.0	6.0%	1.5	0	2	3	1	0
Jared Collins	CB	5'11, 173	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8432	13	36.5	5.5%	0.5	0	1	9	1	0
Kevin Richardson II	NB	6'0, 178	Jr.	NR	NR	13	33.0	4.9%	0	0	1	3	0	0
Santos Ramirez	SS	6'2, 205	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8482	12	28.5	4.3%	0	0	1	3	0	0
DJ Dean	CB	5'11, 199	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8249	12	28.0	4.2%	1.5	0.5	2	3	0	0
Ryan Pulley	CB	5'11, 198	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8327	10	8.0	1.2%	0	0	1	2	0	0
De'Andre Coley	SS	6'1, 214	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8163	13	7.5	1.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Willie Sykes	DB					12	6.5	1.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Davyon McKinney	DB					13	4.0	0.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ryder Lucas	DB	6'0, 190	So.	NR	NR	6	2.5	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cornelius Floyd	DB	5'11, 176	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8392	1	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Reid Miller	FS	5'9, 197	So.	NR	NR	12	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Nate Dalton	FS	6'3, 190	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8449
Britto Tutt	CB	6'2, 177	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8367

8. Experience will help, part 2

Eleven Arkansas defensive backs averaged at least half a tackle per game; seven were either freshmen or sophomores. Unless you're loaded with blue-chippers, that's going to hurt you. The cornerback position, fronted by Henré Toliver, Jared Collins, and DJ Dean (combined: 6 TFLs, four INTs, 20 break-ups), showed quite a bit of potential. But while the SEC is loaded with exciting safeties, Arkansas' were lacking in both play-making and play-prevention.

As with the defensive front, the Arkansas secondary lacks in size compared to its peers, but you can get away with that if you can take full advantage of your speed. The Razorbacks did not. And they really might have the weakest set of safeties in the conference.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Toby Baker	6'3, 215	Sr.	43	41.2	2	16	15	72.1%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Lane Saling			70	60.6	11	1	15.7%
Cole Hedlund	5'10, 171	So.	4	32.0	0	0	0.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Cole Hedlund	5'10, 171	So.	58-58	8-11	72.7%	1-4	25.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Eric Hawkins	KR			10	22.3	0
Dominique Reed	KR	6'3, 175	Sr.	10	22.2	0
Jared Cornelius	PR	5'11, 212	Jr.	7	13.3	0
DJ Dean	PR	5'11, 199	Sr.	7	13.3	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	109
Field Goal Efficiency	118
Punt Return Success Rate	21
Kick Return Success Rate	122
Punt Success Rate	4
Kickoff Success Rate	106

9. What of the legs?

Arkansas' special teams unit certainly wasn't boring last year. The Razorbacks had one of the most successful punters in the country in Toby Baker -- he averaged only 41 yards per kick but allowed few returns and almost no good returns. Meanwhile, Jared Cornelius and DJ Dean were both dangerous in punt returns.

Meanwhile, they stunk at pretty much everything else. Opponents got return opportunities on nearly every kickoff, kick returns were mostly ineffective, and Cole Hedlund was a freshman kicker who ... looked like a freshman kicker.

Hedlund's a sophomore now, and Baker and Cornelius/Dean are back. But Arkansas still has a lot to prove in kickoffs and place-kicking.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
3-Sep	Louisiana Tech	84	21.2	89%
10-Sep	at TCU	31	2.0	55%
17-Sep	Texas State	120	32.8	97%
24-Sep	vs. Texas A&M	25	2.8	56%
1-Oct	Alcorn State	NR	40.4	99%
8-Oct	Alabama	1	-8.1	32%
15-Oct	Ole Miss	7	-0.2	50%
22-Oct	at Auburn	24	-0.8	48%
5-Nov	Florida	19	4.2	60%
12-Nov	LSU	2	-5.7	37%
19-Nov	at Mississippi State	21	-1.9	46%
25-Nov	at Missouri	47	6.6	65%
Projected wins: 7.3

Five-Year F/+ Rk	21.5% (27)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	25 / 31
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	7 / -0.2
2015 TO Luck/Game	+2.8
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	63% (37%, 89%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	8.6 (-0.6)

10. All about the tossups

A 55 percent win probability at TCU; 56 percent against Texas A&M at Jerry World; 50 percent against Ole Miss at home; 48 percent at Auburn; 46 percent at Mississippi State.

I'm not sure there's a team in FBS that will have its fate and narrative decided more by 50-50 coin-toss games than Arkansas. The Razorbacks once again face an incredible schedule -- three games against projected top-7 teams, eight against the top 31 -- but the home-road split gives them only two likely losses. And even those games (32 percent against Alabama, 37 against LSU) are within reach.

There's a big season on the table here, but it will require the rebuilt run game to find its groove (and a potentially strong passing game to carry weight until then), and it will require the defense to not be absolutely awful against good pass offenses.

With just a little bit of variance in quality, Arkansas could be either 5-0 or 3-2 when Alabama comes to town and anywhere between 8-1 and 3-6 when LSU visits.